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Module-3-Handouts

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Module-3-Handouts

Uploaded by

ESCARO, JOSHUA G.
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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MODULE 3.

PROBABILITY
There are many events that cannot be predicted. Probability is a way
of associating a number with a chance or likelihood of an event. It is a
measure of the likelihood of an event occurring.
Using the concept of probability, we can predict the chance of an
event to occur i.e., how likely it is going to happen.
The probability of an event can range from ___ to ____,
where ____ means an event is an _______________ and ___means an event is a
____________. The values 0 and 1 can also be expressed as percentages
ranging from 0% (=0) to 100% (=1).
Probability can simply be said to be the chance of something
happening, or not happening. So, the chance of an occurrence of a
somewhat likely event is what we call probability.

Definition of Probability

 Probability is a mathematical term for the likelihood that something


will occur. It is the ability to understand and estimate the possibility
of a different combination of outcomes.
 Probability means that it is possible. It is a branch of statistics that
deals with the occurrence of a random event. The number is
expressed from 0 to 1 where 0 represents an impossible event and 1
represents a sure event.
 Probability is basically the degree to which something can happen. In
order to determine the probability of a single event occurring, first of
all, we need to know the total number of possible consequences.
Four Approaches to Assigning Probabilities to Events
1. ____________________________________________
2. ____________________________________________
3. ____________________________________________
4. ____________________________________________

A Priori Approach (Classical, Theoretical)


If an experiment has ____ simple outcomes, this method would assign
a probability of ______ to each outcome. In other words, each outcome is
assumed to have an equal probability of occurrence.

Example:
1. Random Experiment: Roll of a die
S=

Each simple event has a ______ chance of occurring.

2. Random Experiment: Two rolls of a die

S=

Assumption: The two rolls are “________________”

Probabilities: Each simple event has a _______________ chance of


occurring

Relative Frequency or A Posteriori Approach


The proportion of times that an event occurs in the long run when
conditions are stable. Relative frequency becomes stable as the number of
trials becomes large under the uniform conditions.
To calculate the relative frequency an experiment is repeated a large
number of times say “n” under uniform/stable conditions. So if an event A
occurs m times, then the probability of the occurrence of the event A is
defined by

Example
1. Your team has won 9 games from a total of 12 games played. What is the
relative frequency of winning?
Relative Frequency of winning is __________________

2. A die is tossed 40 times and lands 6 times on the number 4. What is the
relative frequency of observing the die land on the number 4?
Given: Number of times a die is tossed = _______
Number of times the die land on number 4 = _______

Relative Frequency = ________________

3. A coin is tossed 20 times and lands 15 times on heads. What is the


relative frequency of observing the coin lands on heads?

Given: Total number of trials = _______


Number of times a coin lands on heads = _______

Relative frequency = _______________

Subjective Probability
Subjective probability is an individual person's measure of belief that an
event will occur.
This approach is applicable in business, marketing, economics for quick
decisions without performing any mathematical calculations.
The disadvantage of subjective probability is that two or more persons
facing the same evidence/problem may arrive at different probabilities i.e
for the same problem there may be different decisions.

Axiomatic Probability
This approach was proposed by Russian Mathematician A.N.
Kolmogorov in 1993.
“Axioms” are statements which are reasonably true and are accepted
as such, without seeking any proof.
Definition: Let S be the sample space associated with a random experiment.
Let A be any event in S, then P(A) is the probability of occurrence of A if the
following axioms are satisfied.
1. ___ ≤ P(A) ≤ ____, where A is any event (probability is a real number between
0 and 1)

3. P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B), when event A and B are mutually exclusive


2. P(S) = _____ (the probability of the sure event is one)

P(A1 ∪ A2 ∪ A3) = P(A1) + P(A2) + P(A3) + …


If A1 ∩ A2 = Ø, i ≠ j
Types of combinations and relationships between events
1. Complement Event
A’ is called the complement of A with respect to sample space S,

i. A ∪ A’ = _____
then
ii. A ∩ A’ = _____

If A’ is the complement of an event A with respect to sample space


S, then
P(A’) = ____________

Example:
An electronic chip factory can have 5 defective chips for every 100
it produces. If five chips are selected at random. What is the
probability of getting at least one defective?

The number of sample space: ____________++

There are 5 defective chips and 95 perfect ones.


The number of ways of getting one or more defective chips from
this lot is

Let A = Event of getting one or more defective out of 5 selected


P(A) =

Another way of solving this is by the use of complement

P(A’) =

Therefore, the probability of getting at least one defective is

P(A) =

2. Union of Events (General Addition Rule)

P(A or B) = P(A ∪ B)
The word “or” in probability is an indication of addition

P(A or B) = P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)


 If Mutually Exclusive Event
( P(A ∩ B) = _______)

P(A or B) = P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)


 If events are not mutually exclusive

Example 1:
1. Find the probability of getting at least two 4’s in a roll of three
dice.

The number of elements in a Sample Space

The Probability of getting at least two 4’s is the probability of


getting two 4’s plus the probability of getting three 4’s. These
two events have no elements in common.
Let A = the event of rolling two 4’s
Let B = the event of rolling three 4’s

Example 2:
2. Find the probability of drawing a pair of two red cards when two
cards are drawn at random from a deck of 52-card deck.

The number of elements in a Sample Space = n(S) = __________________

Let A = event of drawing a pair


B = event of drawing two red cards

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