Applied Statistics and Probability

for Engineers
Seventh Edition
Douglas C. Montgomery George C. Runger

Chapter 3
Discrete Random Variables & Probability Distributions
Chapter 3 Title Slide
Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All Rights Reserved 1
 3 Discrete Random Variables and
Probability Distributions

CHAPTER OUTLINE
3.1 Probability Distributions and 3.6 Geometric and Negative
Probability Mass Functions Binomial Distributions
3.2 Cumulative Distribution 3.7 Hypergeometric Distribution
Functions 3.8 Poisson Distribution
3.3 Mean and Variance of a
Discrete Random Variable
3.4 Discrete Uniform Distribution
3.5 Binomial Distribution

Chapter 3 Contents
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 Learning Objectives for Chapter 3
After careful study of this chapter, you should be able to do the following:
1. Determine probabilities from probability mass functions and the reverse.
2. Determine probabilities and probability mass functions from cumulative
distribution functions and the reverse.
3. Calculate means and variances for discrete random variables.
4. Understand the assumptions for discrete probability distributions.
5. Select an appropriate discrete probability distribution to calculate
probabilities.
6. Calculate probabilities and determine means and variances for some
common discrete probability distributions.

Chapter 3 Learning Objectives

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 Example 3.1 | Flash Recharge Time
• The time to recharge the flash is tested in three
cellphone cameras Table 3.1 Camera Flash Tests
o The probability that a camera passes the test is 0.8 Camera #
and the cameras perform independently. 1 2 3 Probability X
• Table 3.1 shows the sample space for the experiment Pass Pass Pass 0.512 3
and associated probabilities. Fail Pass Pass 0.128 2
Pass Fail Pass 0.128 2
o For example, because the cameras are Fail Fail Pass 0.032 1
independent, the probability that the first and Pass Pass Fail 0.128 2
second cameras pass the test and the third one Fail Pass Fail 0.032 1
fails, denoted as 𝑝𝑝𝑓, is Pass Fail Fail 0.032 1
𝑃(𝑝𝑝𝑓) = (0.8)(0.8)(0.2) = 0.128 Fail Fail Fail 0.008 0
Sum 1.000
• The random variable 𝑋 denotes the number of cameras
that pass the test. The last column shows the values of
𝑋 assigned to each outcome of the experiment.
Sec 3.1 Probability Distributions and
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Mass Functions
 Probability Distributions
• A random variable is a function that assigns a real number to each outcome
in the sample space of a random experiment.

• The probability distribution of a random variable 𝑋 is a description of the

probabilities associated with the possible values of 𝑋.

• A discrete random variable has a probability distribution that specifies the

list of possible values of 𝑋 along with the probability of each, or it can be
expressed in terms of a function or formula.

Sec 3.1 Probability Distributions and

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Mass Functions
 Example 3.3 | Digital Channel
• There is a chance that a bit transmitted
through a digital transmission channel is
received in error.
• Let 𝑋 equal the number of bits received in
error in the next 4 bits transmitted.
• The associated probability distribution of
Figure 3.1 Probability distribution for bits in error.
𝑋 is shown in the table.
• The probability distribution of 𝑋 is given by P(X =0) = 0.6561
the possible values along with their P(X =1) = 0.2916
probabilities. P(X =2) = 0.0486
P(X =3) = 0.0036
P(X =4) = 0.0001
Sec 3.1 Probability Distributions and
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1.0000
Mass Functions 6
 Probability Mass Function
For a discrete random variable 𝑋 with possible values 𝑥1, 𝑥2, … , 𝑥𝑛, a
probability mass function is a function such that:

(1) 𝑓 𝑥𝑖 ≥ 0

(2) σ𝑛𝑖=1 𝑓 𝑥𝑖 = 1

(3) 𝑓 𝑥𝑖 = 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥𝑖 )

Sec 3.1 Probability Distributions and

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Mass Functions
 Example 3.4 | Wafer Contamination
• Let the random variable 𝑋 denote the number
of wafers that need to be analyzed to detect a Probability Distribution
large particle of contamination. Assume that P(X = 1) = 0.01 0.01
the probability that a wafer contains a large
particle is 0.01, and that the wafers are P(X = 2) = (0.99)*0.01 0.0099
independent. Determine the probability P(X = 3) = (0.99)2*0.01 0.009801
distribution of 𝑋. P(X = 4) = (0.99)3*0.01 0.009703
• Let 𝑝 denote a wafer in which a large particle is : : :
present & let 𝑎 denote a wafer in which it is General formula
absent. 𝑃 𝑋 = 𝑥 = 𝑃 𝑎𝑎 … 𝑎𝑝
• The sample space is: 𝑆 = {𝑝, 𝑎𝑝, 𝑎𝑎𝑝, 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑝, … } = 0.99𝑥−1 0.01 , 𝑥 = 1, 2, 3 …

• The range of the values of 𝑋 is 𝑥 = 1, 2, 3, 4, …

Sec 3.1 Probability Distributions and

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Mass Functions
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 Cumulative Distribution Functions
Example 3.5 | Consider the probability distribution for the digital channel example. The last
column shows the cumulative probabilities of getting an error 𝑥 or less.
𝑋 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥)
0 0.6561 = 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 0 = 𝑃 𝑋 = 0 = 0.6561
1 0.2916 = 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 1 = 𝑃 𝑋 = 0 + 𝑃 𝑋 = 1 = 0.6561 + 0.2916 = 0.9477
2 0.0486 = 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 2 = 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 1 + 𝑃 𝑋 = 2 = 0.9477 + 0.0486 = 0.9963
3 0.0036 = 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 3 = 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 2 + 𝑃 𝑋 = 3 = 0.9963 + 0.0036 = 0.9999
4 0.0001 = 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 4 = 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 3 + 𝑃 𝑋 = 4 = 0.9999 + 0.0001 = 1.0000

Find the probability of three or fewer bits in error.

• The event (𝑋 ≤ 3) is the total of the events: (𝑋 = 0), (𝑋 = 1), (𝑋 = 2), and (𝑋 = 3).
• For the probability calculation, see the shaded row in the table.
Sec 3.2 Cumulative Distribution
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Functions
 Example 3.6 | Cumulative Distribution Function
Determine the probability mass function
of 𝑋 from the following cumulative
distribution function:

0 𝑥 < −2
0.2 −2≤𝑥 <0
𝐹 𝑥 =
0.7 0≤𝑥<2
1 2≤𝑥 Figure 3.3 Cumulative Distribution Function

Note
𝑓 −2 = 0.2 − 0 = 0.2 Even if the random variable 𝑋 can assume only
𝑓 0 = 0.7 − 0.2 = 0.5 integer values, the cumulative distribution
𝑓 2 = 1.0 − 0.7 = 0.3 function is defined at non-integer values.

Sec 3.2 Cumulative Distribution

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Functions
 Cumulative Distribution Function
and Properties
The cumulative distribution function, is the probability that a random variable 𝑋
with a given probability distribution, will be found at a value less than or equal to 𝑥.
Symbolically,
𝐹 𝑥 = 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 𝑥 = ෍ 𝑓 𝑥𝑖
𝑥𝑖 ≤𝑥

For a discrete random variable 𝑋, 𝐹(𝑥) satisfies the following properties:

(1) 𝐹 𝑥 = 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 𝑥 = σ𝑥𝑖 ≤𝑥 𝑓 𝑥𝑖

(2) 0 ≤ 𝐹 𝑥 ≤ 1

(3) if 𝑥 ≤ 𝑦 , then 𝐹 𝑥 ≤ 𝐹(𝑦)

Sec 3.2 Cumulative Distribution
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Functions
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 Mean and Variance of a Discrete Random
Variable
• Used to summarize a probability Mean or expected value
distribution
𝜇 = 𝐸 𝑋 = ෍ 𝑥𝑓(𝑥)
• Mean: measure of center or middle of
𝑥
the probability distribution
• For a discrete random variable, a weighted
average of possible values with weights Variance
equal to probabilities 𝜎2 = 𝑉 𝑋 = 𝐸 𝑋 − 𝜇 2

• Variance: measure of the dispersion, or = ෍ 𝑥 − 𝜇 2 𝑓 𝑥 = ෍ 𝑥 2 𝑓 𝑥 − 𝜇2

variability in the distribution
𝑥 𝑥
• For a discrete random variable, a weighted
measure of each possible squared deviation
with weights equal to probabilities Standard deviation
𝜎 = 𝜎2
Sec 3.3 Mean and Variance of a Discrete Random Variable

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 Example 3.7 | Digital Channel
• In Example 3.3, there is a chance that a bit 𝑥 (𝑥 − 0.4) (𝑥 − 0.4)2 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑓(𝑥)(𝑥 − 0.4)2
transmitted through a digital transmission
channel is received in error. 𝑋 is the number of 0 −0.4 0.160 0.6561 0.1050
bits received in error of the next 4 transmitted. 1 0.6 0.360 0.2916 0.1050
• The probabilities are shown in the table in the 2 1.6 2.560 0.0486 0.1244
𝑓 𝑥 column.
3 2.6 6.760 0.0036 0.0243
• Use the table to calculate the mean &
variance. 4 3.6 12.960 0.0001 0.0013

Mean Variance
5
𝜇 = 𝐸 𝑋 = 0𝑓 0 + 1𝑓 1 + 2𝑓 2 + 3𝑓 3 + 𝜎 2 = 𝑉 𝑋 = ෍ 𝑓 𝑥𝑖 𝑥𝑖 − 0.4 2
= 0.36
4𝑓 4 = 0 0.6561 + 1 0.2916 + 2 0.0486 +
𝑖=1
3 0.0036 + 4 0.0001 = 0.4

Sec 3.3 Mean and Variance of a Discrete Random Variable

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 Expected Value of a Function of a Discrete
Random Variable
• If 𝑋 is a discrete random variable with probability mass function 𝑓(𝑥)

𝐸[ℎ(𝑥)] = ෍ ℎ(𝑥)𝑓(𝑥)
𝑥

• The variance can be considered as an expected value of a specific function

of 𝑋, namely, ℎ 𝑋 = 𝑋 − 𝜇 2

Sec 3.3 Mean and Variance of a Discrete Random Variable

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 Example 3.9 | Digital Channel
• In Example 3.7, 𝑋 is the number of bits received in error of the next 4 transmitted.
• The probabilities are shown in the table in the 𝑓 𝑥 column.
• What is the expected value of the square of the number of bits in error?
• ℎ 𝑋 = 𝑋2

Sec 3.3 Mean and Variance of a Discrete Random Variable

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 Discrete Uniform Distribution

Sec 3.4 Discrete Uniform Distribution

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 Mean and Variance of Discrete Uniform
Distribution
• Let 𝑋 be a discrete random variable ranging from 𝑎, 𝑎 + 1, 𝑎 +
2, … , 𝑏, 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑎 ≤ 𝑏.
• There are 𝑏 – (𝑎 − 1) values in the inclusive interval.
• Therefore 𝑓(𝑥) = 1/(𝑏 − 𝑎 + 1)

Sec 3.4 Discrete Uniform Distribution

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 Example 3.11 | Number of Voice Lines
Let the random variable 𝑋 denote the number of the 48 voice lines that are in use at a particular
time. Assume that 𝑋 is a discrete uniform random variable with a range of 0 to 48.
Find 𝐸(𝑋) & 𝜎.

Practical Interpretation
The average number of lines in use is 24, but the dispersion
(as measured by 𝜎) is large. Therefore, at many times far
more or fewer than 24 lines are used.

Sec 3.4 Discrete Uniform Distribution

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 Binomial Distribution
The random variable 𝑋 that equals the number of trials that result in a
success is a binomial random variable with parameters
0 < 𝑝 < 1 and 𝑛 = 1, 2, … .

The probability mass function is:

𝑓 𝑥 = 𝑛𝑥 𝑝 𝑥 1 − 𝑝 𝑛−𝑥 , for 𝑥 = 0, 1, … , 𝑛(3.7)

For constants 𝑎 and 𝑏, the binomial expansion is:

𝑛
𝑛
𝑛 𝑘 𝑛−𝑘
𝑎+𝑏 =෍ 𝑎 𝑏
𝑘
Sec 3.5 Binomial Distribution
𝑘=0

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 Example 3.14: Binomial Coefficient
Exercises in binomial coefficient calculation:

10 10! 10 ⋅ 9 ⋅ 8 ⋅ 7!
= = = 120
3 3! 7! 3 ⋅ 2 ⋅ 1 ⋅ 7!

15 15! 15 ⋅ 14 ⋅ 13 ⋅ 12 ⋅ 11 ⋅ 10!
= = = 3,003
10 10! 5! 5 ⋅ 4 ⋅ 3 ⋅ 2 ⋅ 1 ⋅ 10!

100 100! 100 ⋅ 99 ⋅ 98 ⋅ 97 ⋅ 96! Recall: 0! = 1

= = = 3,921,225
4 96! 4! 4 ⋅ 3 ⋅ 2 ⋅ 1 ⋅ 96!
Sec 3.5 Binomial Distribution

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 Example 3.15a: Organic Pollution
Each sample of water has a 10% chance of containing a particular organic pollutant.
Assume that the samples are independent with regard to the presence of the pollutant. Find
the probability that, in the next 18 samples, exactly 2 contain the pollutant.

Answer: Let 𝑋 denote the number of samples that contain the pollutant in the next 18
samples analyzed. Then 𝑋 is a binomial random variable with 𝑝 = 0.1 and 𝑛 = 18.

18
𝑃 𝑋=2 = 0.12 1 − 0.1 18−2 = 153 0.1 2 0.9 16 = 0.2835
2
In Microsoft Excel®, use the BINOMDIST function to calculate 𝑃 𝑋 = 2 by:

= 𝐁𝐈𝐍𝐎𝐌𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐓(𝟐, 𝟏𝟖, 𝟎. 𝟏, 𝐅𝐀𝐋𝐒𝐄)

Sec 3.5 Binomial Distribution

Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All Rights Reserved 29
 Example 3.15b: Organic Pollution
Determine the probability that at least 4 samples contain the pollutant.

Answer: The problem calls for calculating 𝑃 𝑋 ≥ 4 but is easier to calculate the
complementary event, 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 3 , so that:

3
18
𝑃 𝑋 ≥4 =1−෍ 0.1𝑥 0.9 18−𝑥 = 1 − 0.150 + 0.300 + 0.284 + 0.168 = 0.098
𝑥
𝑥=0

In Microsoft Excel®, use the BINOMDIST function to calculate 𝑃 𝑋 ≥ 4 by:

= 𝟏 − 𝐁𝐈𝐍𝐎𝐌𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐓(𝟑, 𝟏𝟖, 𝟎. 𝟏, 𝐓𝐑𝐔𝐄)

Sec 3.5 Binomial Distribution

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 Example 3.15c: Organic Pollution
Determine the probability that 3 ≤ 𝑋 < 7.

Answer:
6
18
𝑃 3≤𝑋<7 =෍ 0.1𝑥 0.9 18−𝑥
= 0.168 + 0.070 + 0.022 + 0.005 = 0.265
𝑥
𝑥=3
In Microsoft Excel®, use the BINOMDIST function to calculate 𝑃 3 ≤ 𝑋 < 7 by:

= 𝐁𝐈𝐍𝐎𝐌𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐓 𝟔, 𝟏𝟖, 𝟎. 𝟏, 𝐓𝐑𝐔𝐄 − 𝐁𝐈𝐍𝐎𝐌𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐓(𝟐, 𝟏𝟖, 𝟎. 𝟏, 𝐓𝐑𝐔𝐄)

Appendix A, Table II (pp. A-5 to A-7) presents cumulative binomial

tables (for selected values of 𝑝 and 𝑛) that will simplify calculations.

Sec 3.5 Binomial Distribution

Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All Rights Reserved 31
 Binomial Mean and Variance
If 𝑋 is a binomial random variable with parameters 𝑝 and 𝑛,
• The mean of 𝑋 is:
𝜇 = 𝐸(𝑋) = 𝑛𝑝

• The variance of 𝑋 is:

𝜎2 = 𝑉(𝑋) = 𝑛𝑝(1 − 𝑝)
• These quantities are derived by summing Bernoulli random variables and
using the definitions of the mean and variance of discrete random
variables.

Sec 3.5 Binomial Distribution

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 Example 3.16 | Binomial Mean and Variance

For the number of transmitted bits received in error in Example 3.13, 𝑛 = 4 and
𝑝 = 0.1. Find the mean and variance of the binomial random variable.

Answer:
𝜇 = 𝐸 𝑋 = 𝑛𝑝 = 4 ⋅ 0.1 = 0.4

𝜎2 = 𝑉 𝑋 = 𝑛𝑝 1 − 𝑝 = 4 ⋅ 0.1 ⋅ 0.9 = 0.36

Sec 3.5 Binomial Distribution

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 Geometric Distribution
• Binomial distribution has
• Fixed number of trials
• Random number of successes
• Geometric distribution has reversed roles
• Random number of trials
• Fixed number of successes, in this case 1

Sec 3.6 Geometric and Negative

Binomial Distributions
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 Example 3.18 | Wafer Contamination
• The probability that a wafer contains a large particle of contamination is 0.01. Assume that the
wafers are independent. What is the probability that exactly 125 wafers need to be analyzed before
a particle is detected?

Let 𝑋 denote the number of samples analyzed until a large particle is detected. Then
𝑋 is a geometric random variable with parameter 𝑝 = 0.01.

𝑃(𝑋 = 125) = (0.99)124(0.01) = 0.00289

Sec 3.6 Geometric and Negative

Binomial Distributions
Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All Rights Reserved 35
 Geometric Mean and Variance

Sec 3.6 Geometric and Negative

Binomial Distributions
Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All Rights Reserved 36
 Example 3.19 | Mean and Standard Deviation
• Consider the transmission of bits in Example 3.17.
• The probability that a bit transmitted through a digital transmission channel is received in error is
𝑝 = 0.1.
• Assume that the transmissions are independent events, and let the random variable 𝑋 denote the
number of bits transmitted until the first error. Find the mean and standard deviation.

Mean: 𝜇 = 𝐸(𝑋) = 1 / 𝑝 = 1 / 0.1 = 10

Variance: 𝜎2 = 𝑉(𝑋) = (1 − 𝑝) / 𝑝2 = 0.9 / 0.01 = 90

Standard deviation: 90 = 9.49

Sec 3.6 Geometric and Negative

Binomial Distributions
Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All Rights Reserved 37
 Negative Binomial Distribution
• A generalization of a geometric distribution in which the random
variable is the number of Bernoulli trials required to obtain 𝑟
successes

Sec 3.6 Geometric and Negative

Binomial Distributions
Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All Rights Reserved 38
 Mean & Variance of Negative Binomial

Sec 3.6 Geometric and Negative

Binomial Distributions
Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All Rights Reserved 39
 Example 3.22 | Camera Flashes
• The probability that a camera passes a particular test is 0.8, and the cameras perform
independently.
• What is the probability that the third failure is obtained in five or fewer tests?

Let 𝑋 denote the number of cameras tested until three failures have been obtained.
The requested probability is 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 5). Here 𝑋 has a negative binomial distribution
with 𝑝 = 0.2 and 𝑟 = 3. Therefore,

Sec 3.6 Geometric and Negative

Binomial Distributions
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 Hypergeometric Distribution
• Samples are selected from a finite population without replacement

Sec 3.7 Hypergeometric

Distribution
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 Example 3.23 | Sampling without replacement
• A day’s production of 850 manufactured parts contains 50 parts that do not conform to customer requirements
• Two parts are selected at random without replacement from the day’s production.
• Let A and B denote the events that the first and second parts are nonconforming, respectively.
• What is the probability that both parts conform, one part does not conform, and both parts do not conform?

Let 𝑋 denote the number of parts that

do not conform. Therefore,

Sec 3.7 Hypergeometric

Distribution
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 Example 3.24a | Parts from Suppliers
• A batch of parts contains 100 parts from a local supplier of circuit boards and 200 parts from a
supplier in the next state.
• If 4 parts are selected randomly, without replacement, what is the probability that they are all from
the local supplier?

Sec 3.7 Hypergeometric

Distribution
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 Example 3.24b | Parts from Suppliers
• What is the probability that two or more parts in the sample are from the local supplier?

Sec 3.7 Hypergeometric

Distribution
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 Example 3.24c | Parts from Suppliers
• What is the probability that at least one part in the sample is from the local supplier?

Sec 3.7 Hypergeometric

Distribution
Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All Rights Reserved 45
 Hypergeometric Mean & Variance

Sec 3.7 Hypergeometric

Distribution
Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All Rights Reserved 46
 Poisson Distribution

Sec 3.8 Poisson Distribution

Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All Rights Reserved 47
 Example 3.27a | Wire Flaws
• Flaws occur at random along the length of a thin copper wire.
• Let 𝑋 denote the random variable that counts the number of flaws in a length of 𝑇 𝑚𝑚 of wire and
suppose that the average number of flaws is 2.3 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑚𝑚.
• Find the probability of exactly 10 𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑤𝑠 𝑖𝑛 5 𝑚𝑚 of wire.

Let 𝑋 denote the number of flaws in 5 mm of wire. Then 𝑋 has the Poisson distribution with

Therefore,

Sec 3.8 Poisson Distribution

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 Example 3.27b | Wire Flaws
• Find the probability of at least 1 𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑤 𝑖𝑛 2 𝑚𝑚 of wire.

Let 𝑋 denote the number of flaws in 2 mm of wire. Then 𝑋 has the Poisson distribution with

Therefore,

Sec 3.8 Poisson Distribution

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 Poisson Mean & Variance

• The mean and variance of the Poisson model are the same.
• For example, if particle counts follow a Poisson distribution with a mean of 25
particles per square centimeter, the variance is also 25 and the standard deviation of
the counts is 5 per square centimeter.
• If the variance of a data is much greater than the mean, then the Poisson distribution
would not be a good model for the distribution of the random variable.
Sec 3.8 Poisson Distribution

Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All Rights Reserved 50
 Important Terms & Concepts of Chapter 3

Chapter 3 Important Terms and Concepts Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All Rights Reserved 51