Your Math’s Buddy

Probability
Aman Khedia

Chapter-12 PROBABILTY
Conceptual Background Background of Chapter Questions Background

Basic Definition Random Experiment Events Classical Definition Calculation of Outcomes Sample Space Single More than One Total Conditional Expected Odds In Favor Common
Of Probability Event Event Probability Probability Value Odds Against Algebraic Problems

Conceptual Background

1. Basic Definition 2. Random Experiment 3. Events 4. Classical Definition of Probability

Probability means Chance of Experiment Whose Outcome is Not Known is Experiment Whose Outcome is Not Known is
𝒎 𝒏𝒐 𝒐𝒇 𝒆𝒍𝒆𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒔 𝒊𝒏 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝑨 1. 0 ≤ 𝑚 ≤ 𝑛 3. 0 ≤ 𝑃[𝐴] ≤ 1
“Occurrence” of any Particular Event Known as Random Experiment Known as Random Experiment P[A] = =
E.g.: Tossing a Coin, Rolling a Dice E.g.: Tossing a Coin, Rolling a Dice 𝒏 𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒐 𝒐𝒇 𝑶𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 0 𝑚 𝑛
2. 𝑛
≤ 𝑛
≤ 𝑛
4. 𝑃[𝐴] + 𝑃 [𝐴ҧ] = 1

Conclusion Note
Aman Sir Yes Of Course, we need to two things
Sure Event Impossible Event Equiprobable Event Independent Event Dependent Event Students
Event Whose Chance When Probability of Events When Happening or Non-Happening When Happening or Non- Sir can we conclude from above that
No of favourable Outcomes &
Event Whose Chance of
of Happening is 100% Happening is 0 % are Same then Events are of One Event Does Not Effect Happening of One Event Effect probability calculation in based on Total no of Outcomes
Equiprobable Event Happening or Nor Happening of Happening or Nor Happening of NO OF OUTCOMES
another Events then events are another Events then events are
P(A) = 1 P(A) = 0 P(A) = P(B) Sample Space Use of Combination
independent. independent.
Technique Technique

Aman Sir Observation

Mutually Exclusive Exhaustive
We have Observed that Students Usually Get Confused that when to Draw Sample Space & When to Use
Events
Events are Exhaustive
Events are said to M.E Combination So Now Let’s Remove this Confusion
when then have if Addition of all Give
Nothing Common us Sample Space
𝐴1 + 𝐴2 + 𝐴3 = 𝑆. 𝑆 Sample Space Technique Use of Combination Technique
When Data is Small & it Practically Possible to Count the When Data is Small & it Practically Possible to Count the
5. Sample Space Outcomes then Only, we will Prefer Sample Space Technique Outcomes then Only, we will Prefer Sample Space Technique
Example: Example:
We will Create Sample Space in question if it small and possible …So let’s Learn Some Basic Sample Space
Example: From the letters of the word “MOBILE”, a letter Example: If 2 Alphabets are selected at Random from a word
Coins Dice Cards is Selected at Random. The Probability it is Vowel is? “MOBILE”, What is the probability that alphabets are Vowels?
Solu: Solu:
Sample Space Technique Combination Technique
Coins
(MO, MB, MI, ML, ME,
Coins Sample Space: No of Outcomes = (𝑶𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒐𝒇 𝑺𝒊𝒏𝒈𝒍𝒆 𝑪𝒐𝒊𝒏)𝑵𝒐 𝒐𝒇 𝑪𝒐𝒊𝒏𝒔 OB, OI, OL, OE, BI, BL,
BE, IL, IE, LE)
1 Coin {H, T}
3 Coin {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}
2 Coin {HH, HT, TH, TT} Cards
Cards Sample Space 52 Cards (Joker is not a Card)

Dice BLACK CARDS [26 Cards] RED CARDS [26 Cards]

SPADE (13) CLUB (13) HEART (13) DIAMOND (13)
Dice Sample Space: No of Outcomes = (𝑶𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒐𝒇 𝑺𝒊𝒏𝒈𝒍𝒆 𝑫𝒊𝒄𝒆)𝑵𝒐 𝒐𝒇 𝑫𝒊𝒄𝒆𝒔 A A A A
Shortcut 2 2 2 2
Face Cards = (J+Q+K) = 3×4 = 12
1 Dice S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} Example: If two dice is 3 3 3 3
𝒙−𝟏 rolled find the probability 4 4 4 4 Honor Cards = Ace + FC = 4×4 = 16
P(Sum) = 𝟑𝟔
2 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 7 5 Denomination 5 5 5
(1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6) of getting Card
6 6 6 6
2 Dice
(2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6) P(Sum) (a) Sum as 2 7 7 7 7
8 8 8 8
(3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6) 9 9 9 9
𝟏𝟑−𝒙
(4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6) P(Sum) = 𝟑𝟔
8 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 12 10 10 10 10
(b) Sum as 9 J J J J
(5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6) Q Face Card Q Q Q
(6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6) K K K K

CA Foundation Quantitative Aptitude

 Your Math’s Buddy
Probability
Aman Khedia
Phase-1
Question Background
6. Single Event 7. Multiple Event 8. Total Probability

• In Succession
We have 2 Alternatives to Solve Question
• Two Consecutive Draw
• One by One G.M.T
• And Another Draw E-1 E-2 Required Probability (Blue Ball)
C.D.P G.A.T • Replacement/Without Rep.

When to think? When to think?

Independent Event Dependent Event
When we Can Count No of Outcome Apply When –
(When there is No Change in (When there is Change (Reduction/Addition) When there are More than One Event Which Satisfy the Demands of
Either by- • We Can’t Count Fav & Total Outcomes because
Sample Space of 2nd Event) in Sample Space of 2nd Event) the Question’s Required Probability then when we Will Calculate the
• Sample Space or Direct Probabilities are Given
• Use of Combination. • Que Demands At least One or Only One Task Probability of Each Event and Add then to Get Total Probability
• Use of Word “OR” (it mean’s At least Once)

𝑷ሺ𝑨 ∪ 𝑩) = 𝑷ሺ𝑨) + 𝑷ሺ𝑩) − 𝑷ሺ𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) Example: A bag contains 10 white and 15 black balls. Two balls are drawn in succession without Example: A bag contains 4 red and 3 black balls. A second bag contains
replacement. What is the probability that first is white and second is black? 2 red and 4 black balls. One bag is selected at random. from the selected
Solu: bag, one ball is drawn. Find the probability that the ball drawn is red.
Example: A dice is rolled. What is Solu:
A B C
probability that a number 1 or 6 may We Can Count 𝑷ሺ𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) is 𝑷ሺ𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) is Neither we Can Compute
Intersecting Outcome Directly Given nor Given but Task are INDEPENDENT
appear on the face?
Outcome
Solu: After GMT

Example: A bag contains 5 white, 7 red and 8 black balls. If four balls are drawn one by one
Clarification Note without replacement, find the probability of getting all white balls.
Solu:
If Events are Mutually Exclusive then Intersection is Zero {P(A ∩ B = 0)}
𝑷ሺ𝑨 ∪ 𝑩) = 𝑷ሺ𝑨) + 𝑷ሺ𝑩)
Example: A bag contains 6 red and 5 blue balls and another bag
contains 5 red and 8 blue balls. A ball is drawn from first bag without
Example: A drawer contains 50 bolts In Case of 3 Events noticing its colour is put in second bag. A ball is then drawn from the
and 150 nuts. Half of the bolts and half 𝑷ሺ𝑨 ∪ 𝑩) = 𝑷ሺ𝑨) + 𝑷ሺ𝑩) − 𝑷ሺ𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) − 𝑷ሺ𝑩 ∩ 𝑪) − 𝑷ሺ𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) second bag. Find the probability that the ball drawn is blue
of the nuts are rusted. If one item is − 𝑷ሺ𝑩 ∩ 𝑪) + 𝑷ሺ𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 ∩ 𝑪) Example: Find the probability of drawing a diamond card in each of the two consecutive draws Solu:
chosen at random, what is the from a well shuffled pack of cards, if the card drawn is not replaced after the first draw.
probability that it is rusted or a bolt? Solu:
Solu:
Example: A drawer contains 50 bolts and 150 nuts. Half of the bolts and half of the
nuts are rusted. If one item is chosen at random, what is the probability that it is
rusted or a bolt?
Solu:
A Example A box contains 5 white and 7 black balls. Two successive drawn of 3 balls are made
(i) With replacement Important Note
(ii) without replacement.
The probability that the first draw would produce white balls and the second draw would Questions Demands At least One Shortcut
produce black balls are respectively
Example: Two cards are drawn from a Solu: (Events are Independent)
pack of 52 cards. What is the 2
Example: Probability that Hameed passes in mathematics is and the probability
probability that either both are red or 3
We Start thinking about
4 1
both are kings? that he passes in English is . If the probability of passing both courses is what is
9 4 G.A.T & G.M.T
Solu: the probability that Hameed will pass in at least one of these subjects?
Solu:
B Example: A problem in probability was given to three CA students A, B
and C whose chances of solving it are 1/3, 1/5 and 1/2 respectively.
What is the probability that the problem would be solved?
Solu:
Till Now we have Solved Question where Order of Draw was Given in
3
NOTE Question What if Order of Draw is Not Given
Example: A bag contains 12 balls Example: The Probability that a football team winning a match at Kolkata is and
5
which are numbered from 1 to 12. If 6
winning a match at Bengaluru is ; the probability of the team winning at least one
7 Example: A bag contains 5 blue and 4 red balls. If two balls are drawn random one by one
a ball is selected at random, what is match is____ After GMT without replacement, find the probability of getting one ball is blue and one ball is red?
the probability that the number of
Solu: Sol:
the ball will be a multiple of 5 or 6?
Solu: C

CA Foundation Quantitative Aptitude

 Your Math’s Buddy
Probability
Aman Khedia
Phase-2

Question Background

9. Conditional Probability 10. Expected Value 11. Odds in Favor /Against

When to think? Expected Value [E(x)] or Mathematical Expectation of a random variable is Ratio is Given
the sum of products of the different values taken by the random variable and Check weather Given Ratio is of
Chance of Occurrence of ONE EVENT given that Another event has Already Occurred the corresponding probabilities.

Odds in Favor Odds Aganist

Variance

Example: In a class 40% students read Mathematics, 25% Biology and 15% both Mathematics
and Biology. One student is select at random. The probability that he reads Mathematics if it is
Important Highlights
known that he reads Biology is 1. Expectation of constant K = K
Solution: 2. E[x +y] = E[x] + E[y]
3. E[kx] = kE[x]
4. E[x.y] = E[x]. E[y] Example: The odds in Favor of one [1st] student passing a test are 3: 7, the odds against
another student passing are 3:5, the probability that
Example: If a random variable x assumes the values 0, 1 and 2 with probabilities (a) Both Pass
0.30, 0.50 and 0.20, then its expected value is (b) Only the first Student Pass
Solution:
(c) At Least one of them will pass
Solution:

Example: The probability that there is at least one error in an account statement
prepared by 3 persons A, B and C are 0.2, 0.3 and 0.1 respectively. If A, B and C
prepare 60, 70 and 90 such statements, then the expected number of correct
statements
Solution:

Example: The Probability of a student passing in science is 4ൗ5 and the probability of the
student passing in both science & maths is 1ൗ2. What is the probability of that student passing
in maths knowing that he passed in science?
Solution:
Example: The probability distribution of a random variable x is given below:
x: 1 2 4 5 6
p: 0.15 0.25 0.20 0.30 0.10
What is the standard deviation of x?
Solution:

Summary Notes

CA Foundation Quantitative Aptitude

 Your Math’s Buddy
Probability
Aman Khedia

Question Bank
Single Event Multiple Event Total Probability Conditional Probability Algebraic Problems
1. Two balls are drawn from a bag containing 5 white 11. A bag contains 8 red and 5 white balls. Two 21.There are two urns. The first urn contains 3 red and 5 29.For a group of students, 30 %, 40% and 50% failed 38.Given that for two events A and B, P (A) = 3/5, P
and 7 black balls at random. What is the successive draws of 3 balls are made without white balls whereas the second urn contains 4 red and in Physics, Chemistry and at least one of the two 𝐴
(B) = 2/3 and P (A∪B) = 3/4, what is P ( )?
probability that they would be of different colors? replacement. The probability that the first draw will subjects respectively. If an examinee is selected at 𝐵
6 white balls. A ball is taken at random from the first urn
produce 3 white balls and the second 3 red balls is (a) 0.655 (b) 13/60
(a) 35/66 (b) 30/66 and is transferred to the second urn. Now another ball is random, what is the probability that he passed in
(c) 12/66 (d) None of these (a) 5/223 (b) 6/257 (c) 31/60 (d) 0.775
(c) 7/429 (d) 3/548 selected at random from the second arm. The probability Physics if it is known that he failed in Chemistry?
that the second ball would be red is (a)1/2 (b) 1/3 39. Given that P(a) = 1/2, P (B) = 1/3, P (A B) = 1/4,
2. X and Y stand in a line with 6 other people. What
12. A police-man fires four bullets on a dacoit. The (c)1/4 (d) 1/6 what is P (A'/B')
is the probability that there are 3 persons between (a) 7/20 (b) 35/88
probability that the dacoit will be killed by one
them? (c)17/52 (d) 3/20 (a) 1/2 (b) 7/8
bullet is 0.6. What is the probability that the dacoit
(a) 1/5 (b) 1/6 30.Ten cards numbered 1 through 10 are placed in a (c) 5/8 (d) 2/3
is still alive?
(c)1/7 (d) 1/3 22.There are three boxes with the following composition: box, mixed up thoroughly and then one card is drawn
(a) 0.0256 (b) 0.8954 40.If P (a) = p and P (B) = q, then
Box I: 5 Red + 7 White + 6 Blue balls randomly. If it is known that the number on the drawn
3. A number is selected at random from the first (c) 0.5623 (d) None of These (a) P(A/B) < p/q (b) P(A/B) ≥ p/q
Box II: 4 Red + 8 White + 6 Blue balls card is more than 3, what is the probability that it is
1000 natural numbers. What is the probability that 13. A bag contains 10 white and 15 black balls. Two (c) P(A/B) < q/p (d) None of these
Box III: 3 Red + 4 White + 2 Blue balls an even number?
the number so selected would be a multiple of 7 balls are drawn in succession without (a) 3/10 (b)6/13 41.If P(A) = 2/3, P (B) = 3/4, P (A/B) = 2/3, then what
or 11? If one ball is drawn at random, then what is the
replacement. What is the probability that first is (c) 4/7 (d) 1/6
(a)0.25 (b) 0.32 probability that they would be of same colour? is P (B /A)?
white and second is black?
(c)0.22 (d) 0.33 (a) 89/729 (b) 97/729 (a) 1/3 (b) 2/3
(a) 5/7 (b) 1/4
31.Assume that each child born is equally likely to be a (c) 3/4 (d) 1/2
(c) 7/9 (d) 3/5 (c) 82/729 (d) 23/32
4. Probability that a truck stopped at a roadblock will boy or a girl. If a family has two children, what is the
have faulty brakes or badly worn tires are 0.23 14. Find the probability of drawing a diamond card in conditional probability that both are girls given that (i)
23.There are two boxes containing 5 white and 6 blue balls
and 0.24 respectively. Also, the probability is .38 each of the two consecutive draws from a well the youngest is a girl, (ii) at least one is a girl? Answer Sheet
that a truck stopped at a roadblock will have faulty shuffled pack of cards, if the card drawn is not and 3 white and 7 blue balls respectively. If one of the
(a)1/2 and1/3 (b) 2/5 and 1/3
brakes and or badly working tires. What is the replaced after the first draw. the boxes is selected at random and a ball is drawn from 1. a 2. c 3. c
(c)1/2 and 2/3 (d) None of These
probability that a truck stopped at the roadblock (a) 5/17 (b) 1/16 it, then the probability that the ball is blue is
4. b 5. b 6. b
will have faulty brakes as well as badly worn tires? (c) 1/17 (d) 3/17 (a) 115/227 (b) 83/250
32.In a class 40 % students read Mathematics, 25 % 7. b 8. d 9. d
(a) 0.45 (b) 0.09 (c) 137/220 (d) 127/250
15. A bag contains 5 white, 7 red and 8 black balls. If Biology and 15 % both Mathematics and Biology.
(c) 0.62 (d) None of These
four balls are drawn one by one without
10. b 11. c 12. a
One student is select at random. The probability that
replacement, find the probability of getting all 24.A packet of 10 electronic components is known to 13. b 14. c 15. d
5. Two cards are drawn from a pack of 52 cards. he reads Mathematics if it is known that he reads
white balls. include 2 defectives. If a sample of 4 components is
What is the probability that either both are red or Biology is 16. c 17. b 18. a
(a) 5/969 (b) 6/969 selected at random from the packet, what is the (a) 2/5 (b) 3/5
both are kings?
(c) 7/969 (d) 1/969 probability that the sample does not contain more than 1 19. a 20. b 21. b
(a) 55/120 (b) 55/221 (c) 4/5 (d)none
(c) 45/78 (d) None of These 16. A bag contains 19 tickets, numbered from 1 to 19.
defective? 22. a 23. c 24. c
A ticket is drawn and then another ticket is drawn (a) 1/3 (b) 2/3 Expected Value 25. b 26. d 27. d
6. The probability that a person will get an electric (c) 13/15 (d) 3/15
2 without replacement. Find the probability that both 28. b 29. a 30. c
contract is and the probability that he will not get 33.The probability that there is at least one error in an
5 tickets will show even numbers.
4 account statement prepared by 3 persons A, B and C 31. a 32. b 33. c
plumbing contract is . If the probability of getting (a) 5/17 (b) 1/16 25.Tom speaks truth in 30 percent cases and Harry speaks
7 are 0.2, 0.3 and 0.1 respectively. If A, B and C
2 (c) 4/19 (d) 3/17 truth in 25 percent cases. What is the probability that 34. d 35. b 36. a
at least one contract is what is the probability prepare 60, 70 and 90 such statements, then the
3 they would contradict each other?
that he will get both? expected number of correct statements 37. b 38. d 39. c
GAT + Independent Event (G.M.T) (a) 0.325 (b) 0.400 (a) 170 (b) 176
(a) 19/105 (b) 17/105
(c) 0.925 (d) 0.075 40. b 41. c
(c) 21/105 (d) None of These 17. A problem in mathematics is given to 3 students (c) 178 (d) 180
1 1 1
whose chances of solving it are , , What is the
7. The probability that a person visiting a dentist will 2 3 4 26.There are three persons aged 60, 65 and 70 years old. 34.A bag contains 6 white and 4 red balls. If a person
probability that the problem is solved? draws 2 balls and receives Rs. 10 and Rs. 20 for a
have his teeth cleaned is 0.44, the probability that The survival probabilities for these three persons for
(a) 3/5 (b) 3/4 white and red balls respectively, then his expected
he will have a cavity filled is 0.24. The probability another 5 years are 0.7, 0.4 and 0.2 respectively. What
(c) 5/6 (d) None of These amount is
that he will have his teeth cleaned or a cavity filled is the probability that at least two of them would survive
is 0.60. What is the probability that a person 18. A can solve 90% of the problems given in a book (a) Rs.25 (b) Rs. 26
another five years?
visiting a dentist will have his teeth cleaned and and B can solve 70%. What is the probability that (c) Rs.29 (d) Rs. 28
(a) 0.425 (b) 0.456
cavity filled? at least one of them will solve the problem,
(c) 0.392 (d) 0.388 35.The probability of winning of a person is 6/11 and at
(a) 0.06 (b) 0.08 selected at random from the book?
(c) 0.8 (d) None of These (a) 0.97 (b) 0.89 a result he gets Rs. 77/-. The expectation of this
(c) 0.56 (d) None of These person is
8. Four digits 1, 2, 4 and 6 are selected at random to
Odd in Favor/Against (a) Rs. 35/- (b) Rs. 42/-
form a four-digit number. What is the probability that 19. A machine operates if all of its three components (c) Rs.58/- (d) none
27.The odds in Favor of one student passing a test are 3:7.
the number so formed, would be divisible by 4? function. The probability that the first component
The odds against another student passing at are 3:5.
(a)1/2 (b) 1/5 fails during the year is 0.14, the second 36.If 2x + 3y + 4 = 0 and v(x) = 6 then v (y) is
The probability that both pass is
(c)1/4 (d) 1/3 component fails is 0.10 and the third component 7 21 (a) 8/3 (b) 9
(a) (b)
fails is 0.05. What is the probability that the 16 80 (c) –9 (d) 6
9. Find the probability that a leap year, selected at machine will fail during the year? 9 3
(c) (d)
random, will contain 53 Sundays. (a) 0.2647 (b) 0.8954 80 16
37.The probability distribution of a random variable is as
(a) 1/2 (b) 1/5 (c) 0.5623 (d) None of These follows:
(c) 1/4 (d) 2/7 28.The odds in Favor of one student passing a test are 3:7.
20. A bag contains 5 white, 7 red and 8 black balls. The odds against another student passing at are 3:5. X: 1 2 4 6 8
10.A card is drawn from a deck of 52 cards. Find the Four balls are drawn one by one with The probability that both fail is P: k 2k 3k 3k k
probability of getting a king or a heart or a red replacement, what is the probability that at least 7 21
(a) (b)
card. one is white? 16 80 The variance of x is
(a) 5/13 (b) 7/13 3 3 9 3 (a) 2.1 (b) 4.41
(a) 1 - ( )5 (b) 1 - ( )4 (c) (d)
4 4 80 16 (c) 2.32 (d) 2.47
(c) 6/15 (d) None of These 5
(c) 1 - ( )4 (d) none of These
4

CA Foundation Quantitative Aptitude