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Analysis Guide

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Analysis Guide

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Analysis

After the detection process reports one or more indicators, in the analysis process, the first
responder investigates the data to determine whether a genuine incident has been identified and
what level of priority it should be assigned. Conversely, the report might be categorized as a false
positive and dismissed. Classification of a true positive incident event often relies on correlating
multiple indicators. For a complex or high-impact event, the analysis might be escalated to senior
CIRT team members.

When an incident is verified as a true positive, the next objective is to identify the type of incident
and the data or resources affected. This establishes incident category and impact and allows the
assignment of a priority level.

### Impact

Several factors affect the process of determining impact:

- **Data integrity**—the most important factor in prioritizing incidents will often be the value of
data that is at risk.

- **Downtime**—is the degree to which an incident disrupts business processes, another very
important factor. An incident can either degrade (reduce performance) or interrupt (completely stop)
the availability of an asset, system, or business process.

- **Economic/publicity**—both data integrity and downtime have important economic effects in the
short term and the long term. Short-term costs involve incident response and lost business
opportunities. Long-term economic costs may involve damage to reputation and market standing.

- **Scope**—(broadly the number of systems affected) is not a direct indicator of priority. A large
number of systems might be infected with a type of malware that degrades performance but is not a
data breach risk. This might even be a masking attack as the adversary seeks to compromise data on
a single database server storing top-secret information.

- **Detection time**—research has shown that more than half of data breaches are not detected for
weeks or months after the intrusion occurs, while in a successful intrusion, data is typically breached
within minutes. Systems used to search for intrusions must be thorough and the response to
detection must be fast.

- **Recovery time**—some incidents require lengthy remediation as the system changes required
are complex to implement. This extended recovery period should trigger heightened alertness for
continued or new attacks.

### Category
Incident categories and definitions ensure that all response team members and other organizational
personnel have a shared understanding of the meaning of terms, concepts, and descriptions.

Effective incident analysis depends on threat intelligence. This research provides insight into
adversary tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs). Insights from threat research can be used to
develop specific tools and playbooks to deal with event scenarios. A key tool for threat research is
the framework used to describe the stages of an attack. These stages are often referred to as a cyber
kill chain , following the influential white paper Intelligence-Driven Computer Network Defense
commissioned by Lockheed Martin ([lockheedmartin.com/content/dam/lockheed-
martin/rms/documents/cyber/LM-White-Paper-Intel-Driven-Defense.pdf](https://wmx-api-
production.s3.amazonaws.com/courses/54312/supplementary/LM-White-Paper-Intel-Driven-
Defense.pdf#)).

Description

Stages in the kill chain.

1. Reconnaissance

The adversary gathers information about the network using network probes, Open Source
Intelligence (OSINT), and social engineering. The aim is to map an attack surface and identify
potential attack vectors.

2. Weaponization

The adversary codes an exploit to take advantage of a vulnerability that has been discovered
through reconnaissance. The exploit code is coupled with a payload that will assist the attacker in
maintaining and extending covert access.

3. Delivery
The weaponized code is inserted into the environment using a selected attack vector, such as email
attachment, phishing website/download, USB media, and so on.

4. Exploitation

The weaponized code is executed on the target system and gains the capability to deliver the
payload.

5. Installation

The payload is successfully installed on the target system using methods to remain undetected and
achieve persistence.

6. Command and Control

This is also known as C&C or C2. The payload establishes a connection to a remote server, enabling
the attacker to connect to the target and download or fabricate additional attack tools.

7. Action on Objectives

The adversary uses the compromised system to achieve or progress towards goals, such as data
exfiltration, DoS/vandalism, or escalating access across the target network or other connected
networks.

### Playbooks

The CIRT should develop profiles or scenarios of typical incidents, such as DDoS attacks, virus/worm
outbreaks , data exfiltration by an external adversary, data modification by an internal adversary, and
so on. This guides investigators in determining priorities and remediation plans.

A playbook is a data-driven standard operating procedure (SOP) to assist analysts in detecting and
responding to specific cyber threat scenarios. The playbook starts with a report from an alert
dashboard. It then leads the analyst through the analysis, containment, eradication, recovery, and
lessons learned steps to take.

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