3
3
3
{
(Calicul, 20121 ; C.S.V.T.U., 2008 ; Kuruhzhetra, 2007 )
(x+1), −1< x <1
14. If f (x)= 2
represents the density
0, of a random variable X , find E( X ) and Var ( X).
elsewhere
15. A function is defined as under:
f (x) ¿ 1/k , x 1 ≤ x ≤ x 2
¿ ¿
Find the cumulative distribution of the variate x when k satisfies the
requirements for f (x) to be a density function.
But these r successes and n −r failures can occur in any of the n Cr ways in
each of which the probability is same.
If we perform a series of independent trials such that for each trial p is the
probability of a success and q that of a failure, then the probability of r
successes in a series of n trials is given by n Cr pr q n −r , where r takes any
integral value from 0 to n . The probabilities of 0 , 1 ,2 , … r , … , n successes are,
therefore, given by
n n n−1 n 2 n −2 n r n−r n
q , C1 p q , C2 p q , … , Cr p q ,…, p
The probability of the number of successes so obtained is called the binomial
distribution for the simple reason that the probabilities are the successive
terms in the expansion of the binomial ¿.
∴ the sum of the probabilities
n n n −1 n 2 n −2 n
q + C1 p q + C2 p q +…+ p =¿
(2) Constants of the binomial distribution. The mome
M 0 (t) ¿ E ( e t x ) =Σ n C x p x qn − x et x
¿ ¿
It was discovered by a Swiss mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and was
published posthumously in 1713.
Differentiating with respect to t and putting t=0 and using (3) § 26.11, we get
the mean
′
μ1=n p .
Since M a (t)=e −a t M 0 (t) , the m.g.f. of the binomial distribution about its mean
(m)=n p, is given by
n n
M m (t) ¿ e
−n p t
( q + p et ) =( q e − p t + p e q t )
or
2 3 4
t t t
1+ μ1 t+ μ2+ μ 3 + μ 4 +⋯
2! 3! 4!
¿ ¿
Equating the coefficients of like powers of t on either side, we have
¿ 1000 ×0.323=323
Example 26.41. The following data are the number of seeds germinating out
of 10 on damp filter paper for 80 sets of seeds. Fit a binomial distribution to
these data :
x: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
f: 6 20 28 12 8 6 0 0 0 0 0
∴ mean =
∑ f i x i = 20+56 +36+32+30 = 174 =2.175
Σfi 80 80
Now the mean of a binomial distribution ¿ n p
¿
∴ the successive terms in the expansion give the expected or theoretical
frequencies which are
x: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
RROBTIMS 265
1. Determine the binomial distribution for which mean ¿ 2 (variance) and
mean + variance ¿ 3. Also find P( X ≤ 3).
(Kerala, 2005)
2. (a) An ordinary six-faced die is thrown four times. What are the
probabilities of obtaining 4 , 3 ,2 , 1 and 0 faces ?
(b) A die is thrown five times. If getting an odd number is a success,
find the probability of getting at least four successes.
3. If the chance that one of the ten telephone lines is busy at an instant
is 0.2 .
(a) What is the chance that 5 of the lines are busy?
(b) What is the most probable number of busy lines and what is the
probability of this number?
(c) What is the probability that all the lines are busy?
(V.T.U., 2002 S)
4. If the probability that a new-born child is a male is 0.6 , find the
probability that in a family of 5 children there are exactly 3 boys.
(Kurukshetra, 2005)
5. If on an average 1 vessel in every 10 is wrecked, find the probability
that out of 5 vessels expected to arrive, at least 4 will arrive safely.
( P . probability that (i) exactly two will strike the target, (ii) at least
two will strike the target.
6. A sortie of 20 aeroplanes is sent on an operational flight. The chances
that an aeroplane fails to return is 5 %. Find the probability that (i)
one plane does not return (ii) at the most 5 planes do not return, and
(iii) what is the most probable number of returns?
7. The probability that an entering student will graduate is 0.4 .
Determine the probability that out of 5 students (a) none (b) one and
(c) at least one will graduate.
8. Out of 800 families with 5 children each, how many would you expect
to have ( a ) 3 boys, (b) 5 girls, (c) either 2 or 3 boys? Assume equal
probabilities for boys and girls.
(V.T.U., 2004)
9. If 10 per cent of the rivets produced by a machine are defective, find
the probability that out of 5 rivets chosen at random (i) none will be
defective, (ii) one will be defective, and (iii) at least two will be
defective.
(Kurukshetra, 2013)
10.In a bombing action there is 50 % chance that any bomb will strike the
target. Two direct hits are needed to destroy the target completely.
How many bombs are required to be dropped to give a 99 % chance or
better of completely destroying the target.
(V.T.U., 2003 S)
11.A product is 0.5 % defective and is packed in cartons of 100 . What
percentage contains not more than 3 defectives?
12.If in a lot of 500 solenoids 25 are defective, find the probability of
0 , 1 ,2 , 3 defective solenoids in a random sample of 20 solenoids.
13.500 articles were selected at random out of a batch containing 10,000
articles, and 30 were found to be defective. How many defectives
articles would you reasonably expect to have in the whole batch?
(J.N.T.U., 2003)
14.Fit a binomial distribution for the following data and compare the
theoretical frequencies with the actual ones :
x: 0 1 2 3 4 5
f: 2 14 20 34 22 8
(Bhopal, 2006)
16. Fit a binomial distribution to the following frequency distribution :
(a) x :10 1
(b) y : 28 62 10 4
(b) x : 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
(U.P.T.U., 2011)
f:
13 25 52 58 32 16 4
(Kuru
kshetr
a,
2009;
C.S.V.
T.U.,
2007)
¿
Example 26.43. In a certain factory turning out razor blades, there is a small
chance of 0.002 for any blade to be defective. The blades are supplied in
packets of 10, use Poisson distribution to calculate the approximate number
of packets containing no defective, one defective and two defective blades
respectively in a consignment of 10,000 packets.
(Kurukshetra, 2009 S; Madras, 2006 ; V.T.U., 2004)
Solution. We know that m=n p=10× 0.002=0.02
−0.02
e =1 − 0.02+ ¿ ¿
Probability of no defective blade is e −m =e −0.02=0.9802
∴ no. of packets containing no defective blade is
10 , 000 ×0.9802=9802
Similarly the number of packets containing one defective blade
−m
¿ 10 , 000 ×m e
¿ 10 , 000 ×(0.02)×0.9802=196
Finally the number of packets containing two defective blades
2 −m
m e
¿ 10 , 000 × =10 , 000 ׿ ¿
2!
Example 26.44. Fit a Poisson distribution to the set of observations:
x: 0 1 2 3 4
f: 122 60 15 2 1
(U.T.U., 2010; Bhopal, 2007 S; V.T.U., 2004)
Σ f i xi 60+36+6+ 4
Solution. Mean ¿ = =0.5.
∴ mean of PoissonΣdistribution
fi 200i.e., m=0.5 .
Hence the theoretical frequency for r successes is
−m
Ne ¿¿
∴ the theoretical frequencies are
e th ca 2 3 4
x: 0 1 15 2 0 ( ∵ e −.5 =0.61 )
f : 121 61 15
PROBLEMS 26.6
1. If a random variable has a Poisson distribution such that P(1)=P(2),
find
(V.T.U., 2003)
(i) mean of the distribution. (Rohtak, 2011 S ) (ii) P(4). is two-thirds
of the probability that X =1. Find
2. X is a Poisson variable and it is found that the probability that X =2 is
two-thirds of the X exceeds 3 ?
the probability that X =0 and the probability that X =3. What is the
probability that X .
x: 0 1 2 3 4
(Rohtak
, 2011;
Bhopal,
f: 46 38 22 9 1
2008;
V.T.U.,
2003 S)
No.
of
cell
s 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
per
sq.
:
No.
of
10 14
squ : 3 3
98 42 8 4 2 0 0 0
are
s
(C.S.V.T.U., 2007)
As it is symmetrical, its mean, median and mode are the same. Its points of
inflexion (found by putting d 2 y /d x 2=0 and verifying that at these points
3 3
d y /d x ≠ 0 ) are given by x=μ ± σ , i.e., these points are equidistant from the
mean on either side.
II. Mean deviation from the mean μ
¿
(Rohtak, 2011 S)
III. Moments about the mean
μ2 n+1 ¿
μ2 n ¿
¿
The values of each of the above integrals can be found from the table IV- Λ
ppendix 2 , which gives the values of
z
1
∫ e− z / 2 d z
2
P(z )=
√ (2 π ) 0
for various values of z . This integral is called the probability integral or the
error function due to its use in the theory of sampling and the theory of
errors.
Using this table, we see that the area under the normal curve from z=0 to
z=1, i.e. from x=μ to μ+σ is 0.3413.
∴ (i) The area under the normal curve between the ordinates x=μ − σ and
x=μ+ σ is 0.6826 , ∼ 68 % nearly. Thus approximately 213 of the values lie
within these limits.
(ii) The area under the normal curve between1 x=μ −2 σ and x=μ+2 σ is
0.9544 ∼ 95.5 %, which implies that about 4 % of the values lie outside these
limits. 2
(ii) 99.73 % of the values lie between x=μ −3 σ and x=¿ μ+3 σ i.e., only a
quarter % of the whole lies outside these limits.
(iv) 9.5 % of the values lie between x=μ −1.96 σ and x=¿ μ+1.96 σ i.e., only 5 %
of the values lie outside these limits.
(v) 99 % of the values lie between x=μ −2.58 σ and x=¿ μ+2.58 σ i.e., only 1 %
of the values lie outside these limits.
(vi) 99.9 % of the values lie between x=μ −3.29 σ and x=μ+3.29 σ .
In other words, a value that deviates more than σ from μ occurs about once
in 3 trials. A value that deviates more than 2 σ or 3 σ from μ occurs about
once in 20 or 400 trials. Almost all values lie within 3 σ of the mean.
Fig. 26.4
Obs. 50 % area lies in the z -interval (− 0.745 ,0.745) and 99 % area lies in the z -
interval (− 2.58 ,2.58).
(3) Normal frequency distribution. We can fit a normal curve to any
distribution. If N be the total frequency, μ the mean and σ the standard
deviation of the given distribution then the curve
N −¿¿
y= e
σ √ (2 π )
¿
will fit the given distribution as best as the data will permit. The frequency
of the variate between x 1 and x 2 as given by the fitted curve, will be the area
under (1) from x 1 to x 2.
(4) Applications of normal distribution. This distribution is applied to
problems concerning:
(i) Calculation of errors made by chance in experimental measurements.
(ii) Computation of hit probability of a shot.
(iii) Statistical inference in almost every branch of science.
1 1
∫
2
− z /2
e d z=
√(2 π ) 0 x − μ 4
z=
[ σ ]
The table V , (Appendix 2) gives λ /σ=0.6745 2
Hence the probable error1λ=0.6745 σ 2∼ σ . 4
Obs. Quartile deviation ¿ ( Q3 −Q 1 ) ∼ σ3; Mean deviation ≈ σ
[p. 839] 2 3 5
∴ Q.D. : M.D. : S.D. =10 :12: 15.
(U . P . T . U .,2009)
Example 26.45. X is a normal variate with mean 30 and S.D. ., find the
probabilities that (i) 26 ≤ X ≤ 40,
(ii) X ≥ 45 and (iii) ¿ X −30∨¿ 5.
(J.N.T.U., 2005)
¿ 1 −0.6826=0.3174 .
Example 26.46. A certain number of articles manufactured in one batch
were classified into three categories according to a paiticular characteristic,
being less than 50, between 50 and 60 and greater than 60 . If this
characteristic is known to be normally distributed, determine the mean and
standard deviation for this batch if 60 % ,35 % and 5 % were found in these
categories.
Solution. Let μ be the mean (at z=0 ) and σ the standard deviation of the
normal curve (Fig. 26.5).
Now 60 % of the articles have the characteristic below 50 , 35 % between 50
and 60 and only 5 % greater than 60.
Let the area to the left of the ordinate P Q be 60 % and that between the
ordinates P Q and S T be 35 % so that the areas to the left of P Q ( z =z1 ) and
S T ( z=z 2 ) are 0.6 and 0.95 respectively, i.e., the area O P Q R=0.6 − 0.5=0.1
and the area O S T R=0.45 . 50 − μ
((
∴ area corresponding to z 1 ¿ 60− μ=0.1
and that corresponding to z 2 ¿ σ
))
=0.45
From the table IV, we have σ
(50 − μ)/ σ ¿ 0.2533 ¿ and (60 − μ)/ σ=1.645
σ ¿ 7.543 ¿ and μ=48.092.
whence
Fig. 26.5
Hence z 2 ∞