Conditional Probability Edexcel Stats/Mech Year 2

Previously, you have looked at how to calculate probabilities relating to Tree diagrams
independent events. We will now look at how to solve problems involving Probability formulae You need to be able to draw and use tree diagrams to calculate conditional
two or more events that are not independent. When two events are not independent, this means that the outcome of one event probabilities.
is affected by the outcome of the other. For example, the probability that you
The meaning of independency receive an A on a statistics test may change depending on whether you completed The second set of branches in a tree diagram represent the conditional
If we have two events that are independent, this means that the outcome of all of your homework or not. For such scenarios, we use conditional probability. probabilities.
one event does not affect whether the other event occurs. For example, rolling
a 3 on the first roll of a six-sided die and then rolling a 2 on the second roll are ▪ The probability that event A occurs given that event B has already Example 2: In a tennis match, the probability that Anne wins the first set
independent, since the outcome of the first roll does not have an impact on occurred is denoted as 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵). against Colin is 0.7. If Anne wins the first set, the probability she
the outcome of the second. wins the second set is 0.8. If Anne loses the first set, the probability
▪ If A and B are independent, then 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) since the occurrence she wins the second set is 0.4. A match is won when one player
▪ If two events A and B are independent, we have that of 𝐵 does not affect 𝐴. wins two sets.
𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
A) draw the tree diagram to illustrate this situation
Set notation To solve conditional probability problems, you can use the formula: b) find the probability that the game is over after two sets.
You need to be comfortable with using set notation to describe events within 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) c) find the probability that Anne wins given that the game is over
a sample space. With the help of Venn diagrams, we will go through ▪ 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵)
. = after two sets.
𝑃(𝐵)
examples highlighting what each piece of notation means:

▪ The event that A and B both occur can be written as 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 The following formula relating the intersection to the union is also helpful for some a) We draw the tree diagram and fill in the probabilities:
(𝐴 intersection 𝐵) problems:

▪ 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

`
Example 1: The Venn diagram shows the probabilities of three events, 𝐴, 𝐵 and 𝐶.
▪ The event that 𝐴 or 𝐵 occur can be written as 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵. (𝐴 union 𝐵) Find: a) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) b) 𝑃(𝐶|𝐴′ ) c) 𝑃(𝐶 ∪ 𝐴′)

a) Using the first formula above:

𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 0.1+0.2
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = = 0.2+0.1+0.08+0.12 = 0.6
𝑃(𝐵)
b) If the game is over after two sets then either Anne wins twice, or
Colin wins twice. We must find each of these probabilities and sum
▪ The event that 𝐴 does not occur can be written as 𝐴′. (the everything inside the C circle but
them up.
complement of A) outside of A

𝑃(𝐶∩𝐴′ ) 0.08+0.1
⇒ 𝑃(𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑒 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠 𝑡𝑤𝑖𝑐𝑒) = 0.7 × 0.8 = 0.56
b) 𝑃(𝐶|𝐴′ ) = = = 0.4 ⇒ 𝑃(𝐶𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑛 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠 𝑡𝑤𝑖𝑐𝑒) = 0.3 × 0.6 = 0.18
𝑃(𝐴′ ) 0.1+0.08+0.12+0.15
∴ 𝑃(𝑅𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑) = 0.56 + 0.18 = 0.74
everything outside of A

c) Using the conditional probability formula:

▪ 𝑛(𝐴) is sometimes used to indicate the number of outcomes in c) Using the union and intersection formula:
each event. For example, if A is the event that a card selected at 𝑃(𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑒 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠 | 𝑔𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟 𝑎𝑓𝑡𝑒𝑟 2 𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠) = 𝑃(𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑒 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠 𝑡𝑤𝑖𝑐𝑒)
random from a pack of 52 playing cards is an ace, then 𝑛(𝐴) = 4 𝑃(𝐶 ∪ 𝐴′ ) = 𝑃(𝐶) + 𝑃(𝐴′ ) − 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐴′ )
since there are 4 aces in a pack. 𝑃(𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑒 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑠 𝐴𝑁𝐷 𝑔𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟 𝑖𝑛 𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠)
=
= (0.1 + 0.05 + 0.08 + 0.1) + (0.12 + 0.08 + 0.1 + 0.15) − (0.1 + 0.08) 𝑃(𝑔𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟 𝑖𝑛 𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠)
▪ The empty set is denoted as ∅. If two events A and B are mutually = answer to part b
= 0.6 𝑃(𝐶) 𝑃(𝐴′) 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐴′ ) 0.56 28
exclusive, then we can write 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = ∅ using part b: 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑) = 0.74 = 37

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