Decision Science

June 2022 Examination

Ans 1.

Introduction

This tree diagram depicts a probability space. A probability tree diagram may be used to depict a
succession of probable events or occurrences. Conditional probability may be used in a variety of
situations, from a series of coin flips to a random card draw without replacement.

One single occurrence is shown by the nodes in the likelihood tree diagram. There is an example
of the Probability Tree Diagram (Figure 1) in Figure 1. It is a matter of likelihood, or to put it
another way, Because it has a one-to-one probability of being reached, the network's foundation
node must be reached through the other nodes.

In order to show the intricacy and completeness of the divisions, the use of sister nodes is
necessary.

Consider the decision tree when analyzing the data. The most likely consequences or outcomes
of a choice are represented graphically in a decision tree. Using this program, making choices is
made simpler. When constructing algorithms to solve issues, mathematicians use a technique
known as "conditional control."

Concept and Application

There are three daily flights to and from Srinagar. More than half of the company's flights are
operated by Amira Airlines, one of the company's three airlines. More than half of all flights
leaving the city are operated by Biyas Carriers and Chinar Airlines, two of the most popular
airlines in the area. Passengers who are 40 percent or 60 percent late for their connections pay a
fee according to how much time they are late.
When illustrating a probabilistic range, the tree diagram is often used in probability theory. If the
occurrences are independent of one another, the nodes in the probability tree indicate the
probabilities of those outcomes occurring independently of one another. It is possible to think of
a succession of coin flips as one event. Waiting for the game to finish is OK, so long as you do
not draw any cards from the deck. In a probability tree, each node represents a potential
occurrence, along with a percentage likelihood that it will actually take place. A core node will
always underperform as a result of this.

The image's sibling nodes give further visual signals. If a node's probability indicates that an
event will occur, it is feasible that another event may occur as a consequence of that event.
Node-specific probabilities may be calculated by combining the probabilities of the node and its
parents.

0.8 YES 0.5 X 0.8 = 0.4

S NO 0.5 X 0.2 = 0.1
0.2
0.5
0.65 YES 0.3 X 0.65 = 0.195
0.3 Y
0.35 NO 0.3 X 0.35 = 0.105
0.2 0.4 YES 0.2 X 0.4 = 0.08
P
0.6 NO 0.2 X 0.6 = 0.12

It is possible, however, that a selection tree may convey more statistical data.

A probabilistic decision tree diagram is used in this design to assist in decision-making. If you
decide to choose this route, it is likely that your actions may have unintended consequences.
Conditional expressions are often used by mathematicians to build rules.

Using the opportunity diagram, Amira's flying prowess may be evaluated. We came up with
these concepts using an opportunity tree image.

Amira Airlines flights are included in the first event.

In Event B, Biyas airline flights are listed.

C was created as a tribute to Chinar Airlines' last flights.

The following information may be used by attendees to plan their journey to and from the event:

P (Amira) = 0.50

P (Biyas) = 0.30

P (Chinar) = 0.20

When considering the posterior probabilities,

P (E|Amira)= 0.80

P (E|Biyas) = 0.65

P (|Chinar) = 0.40

As far as scheduled flights go, A and B account for half of them, while C and D account for 30%
and 20% of them. These businesses have on-time delivery rates ranging from 80% to 40%.

Take into account the following aspects:

Event A displays the typical routes used by Airline A.

Airline B displays the flights of airline B.

Plane C is a flight planned by an airline, as indicated by the name.

The aircraft landed on time, as indicated by the letter "E."

It is critical to know whether Amira departed Srinagar at the same time as the plane.

As a result, P (A|E) must be considered.

Using Bayes' law, the same conclusion may be obtained.

By the definition of the conditional probability,

P{flight_is_by_A_AND_flight_is_on_time}
P(the flight is by A | the flight is on-time) = P{flight_is_on_time}
P(A∣E) = P(E∣A)×P(A)

P(E∣B)×P(B)+P(E∣C)×P(C)P(E∣A)×P(A)

P ((A|E)= (0.80*0.50)/(0.80*0.50)+(0.65*0.30)+(0.40*0.20)= 0.59259

Hence, the flight that left Srinagar to belong to airline Amira stands at 0.5926.

= 59.26%.

Using a chance tree diagram, one may assess the likelihood of an event occurring. Using a basic
formula, you can examine a wide range of possible results. Probability calculations of the most
intricate complexity may be made much more clear when viewed from this vantage point. With
so many variables in play, choosing whether to multiply or upload a chance might be difficult.
Along with increasing productivity, an opportunity tree diagram might provide additional options
worth investigating.

Conclusion

The use of a probability tree diagram may simplify the process of determining the likelihood that
a certain event will occur under specific circumstances. The system's likely modifications may be
shown visually using this tool. You will not have to deal with complicated probability formulae
if you use this method. When determining the likelihood of anything, it might be difficult to
discern if you should multiply or add. Probability tree diagrams may be more convenient. This
formula may come in handy when splitting or multiplying two integers.

Ans 2.

Introduction

The variables used in the study have an effect on the researcher's ability to distinguish between
different values. Researchers may feel more confident in their findings if they conduct their
studies in this manner. '" The concept of a variable that may take on a wide range of various
numerical values is described using numerical values. When researchers simultaneously adjust
the dependent and independent variables, they have shown that correlations between
observations and the formation of fresh components may be generated.

The phrase "base variable" is often used in technical contexts to denote the root cause of a
problem. A variable's value can only be determined by taking into consideration all of the other
factors that were investigated throughout the investigation. Cause and effect, in the minds of
some, are two distinct ideas that should be treated as such. Additionally, it has a negative effect
on the independent variables as well as the dependent ones. In certain situations, the distinction
between independent and dependent variables might be crucial. Untrained observers may
mistakenly think that detailed fieldwork or a formal academic article are the same. Consider
whether or not the researcher has made any modifications to the variables while establishing
unbiased variables.

Concept and Application

Scientists require a firm foundation of research criteria in order to arrive at more precise
discoveries. Various meanings may be ascribed to terms like "temperature," "top," and countless
others. It has been demonstrated that researchers often control essential characteristics as well as
neutral elements in order to identify links between more significant components of an
observational study. A lot of research has proved this to be the case. Mathematicians often use
the phrase "separation of two known variables" to describe the primary cause of a problem. If the
other variables in the research are known, it may be possible to determine the cost of a variable.
However, with an independent variable, which has a clearly defined role in influencing the
outcome of a study or experiment, this is not true. That the independent and dependent variables
are linked shows that there is a direct connection.

Adding an independent variable to the experiment may vary the predicted number of results. As
a result, it is considered an independent variable in the study. The experiment's other variables
have no effect on the study's unbiased variables. We use the term "explained" instead of
"explanatory variables" to refer to the independent aspects that impact the result of an event. This
method enables us to accurately forecast how independent variables interact with or influence
derived variables with great precision.
 Customer
Region/ Advertisement Sales Staff
Satisfaction
Kupwara 5512 55328 1 1
Badgam 8337 56251 1 1
Leh-
8788 57126 4 1
ladakh
Kargil 8828 58739 5 1
Punch 9050 66984 5 2
Rajouri 10150 70676 7 2
Kathua 11236 73206 8 2
Baramula 12538 80571 8 3
Bandipore 13161 93168 8 3
Srinagar 13448 99432 9 4

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.953884687
R Square 0.909895996
Adjusted R Square 0.864843994
Standard Error 920.4376878
Observations 10

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 51331942.38 17110647.46 20.1965718 0.00154514
Residual 6 5083233.222 847205.537
Total 9 56415175.6

Standard
Coefficients Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 1113.816482 3863.155891 0.288317768 0.782804417 -8338.985451 10566.61842 -8338.985451 10566.61842
Sales 0.103172928 0.091759599 1.124382943 0.303811184 -0.121354723 0.327700579 -0.121354723 0.327700579

Staff 419.7215188 199.5453386 2.103389244 0.080101468 -68.54833495 907.9913726 -68.54833495 907.9913726

Customer
Satisfaction -350.0074027 1301.328239 -0.268961659 0.796968672 -3534.242893 2834.228088 -3534.242893 2834.228088

It is necessary to link the independent and dependent variables together in order to draw
meaningful conclusions from them. Recursive variables are those that have an impact on many
other independent variables in a series of events that are linked together. Records reveal that each
of the many responses in the records is an extraordinary result of another successful transaction
in the same region, as evidenced by the records. In my opinion, this is the most important part.
Automatically updated dependent variables reflect a new value in response to an independent
variable value change. Statistical analysis methods are often used to determine how much an
independent variable influences the values of dependent variables. In certain cases, a person's
test results may indicate that he or she is related to another person.

Separating independent from dependent variables may be a challenge. For example, the
distinction between a comprehensive investigation and a piece of academic writing, for example,
would be difficult to discern in this circumstance. The researcher must first discover whether any
of the variables have changed before determining whether or not the variables are really
independent.

You must use the right channels to generate regression equations.

Y = a + bX

N∑XY –(∑X)(∑Y)
b= N∑X2 – (∑X)2

∑Y-b∑X
a= N

Where,

N = number of observations, or years

X = a year index (decade)
Y = population size for given census years

The inverse relationship between regression coefficients and P values is similar to the one
discussed above. It is statistically significant when used in conjunction with other approaches to
assess how various components interact in a specific circumstance. A statistical equation may
only be regarded as valid if the independent and dependent variables are connected. For a
relationship to be considered statistically significant, the P values of the coefficients must be
known. A regression model's accuracy may be verified by looking at the residual plots it
generates after it has been developed and validated. Preliminary estimates are necessary in order
to properly analyze and interpret the statistical data that was gathered throughout the estimating
procedure. Depending on the circumstances, the results of linear regression analysis may be able
to accomplish some or all of the desired goals.

Conclusion

If more investigation is needed, the independent variable must be examined. For clarity's sake,
this section refers to it as an independent variable. One or more of the study's dependent
variables may have no impact on any of the study's dependent variables depending on the study's
independent factors. This opens the door to a wide range of methods for evaluating well-known
variables, from narrow to wide. Independent and dependent variables are affected by one another
when one or both change. They are known as "reaction variables" because of the ease with which
they may show how one variable's change influences the change in another.

Ans 3a.

Introduction
Thanks to Reels, users will be able to publish video segments that are as little as 15 seconds in
length. Additionally, Instagram users now have the ability to watch videos on the site via IGTV
and Memories, as well as the capability to create and share their own videos. Instagram users
may choose to make use of these tools in order to increase their number of followers based on
their particular preferences.

Concept and Application

Instagram users will soon be able to take advantage of a new feature known as reels. According
to reports, storm evacuations in the area have been a great success in the past. Users of Reels will
now be able to upload video segments of up to 15 seconds in length for the first time. Numerous
Instagram users have grown to love the inclusion of new features in their accounts, such as
stories and IGTV, particularly with the introduction of reels. The following characteristics may
assist you in getting your message in front of a larger audience:

Even while these characteristics are available to everyone, this does not imply that they should
be put to the test in a competitive atmosphere right away. Consumers must be willing to take a
chance in order to reach a larger audience, and marketers must target a more varied group of
individuals in order to reach a larger audience. Always keep in mind that putting up displays
might take a significant amount of time and money, so include this in your budget planning. The
situation is particularly challenging for people who are mainly concerned with their occupations
since they do not have the financial resources to generate high-quality stuff.

Early adopters get a great deal of recognition as a result of the widespread adoption of Instagram
reels. According to research, not everyone on Instagram uses the same hashtag at the same time.
Users of Facebook are often unable to make the most of new features in the most effective way
possible. In a recent press release, an Indian business says that reels have made it simpler for
marketers to engage with their consumers in the nation. On the other hand, Instagram reels are
preferred by Indian Instagram users by a margin of more than 75%.

If you follow 25 individuals on Instagram, you have a 15 percent probability of getting 15 people
to like your Instagram video reel.

P= 15/25= 0.6

For 20 of the 25 people to show appropriation for Instagram reels, the probability stands at,

P= 20/25= 0.8

Conclusion

Individuals who believe they fit into a target demographic for their product may opt to contact a
larger number of people in order to reach a larger audience. It may take a significant of time and
money to construct anything, and this should be considered. In truth, many individuals are quite
busy at work. Their employers are unlikely to manufacture a certain kind of clothing due to a
lack of financial resources.
Ans 3b.

Introduction

As a result of technological and social advancements, major measures have been taken to
improve the infrastructure supporting the hotel industry. Since its transition into a worldwide
powerhouse, the hotel sector has had a considerable impact on the global economy. In general,
Bharatdarshan is thought to provide its viewers with films about exotic locales they may like to
visit at some time in the future.

Concept and Application

Because the whole globe is accessible as an e-book, those who do not want to travel are ideal
customers for an e-book. Using readily accessible public transit to get where you want to go
when traveling is a potentially risky proposition. As a consequence of company-wide time tours,
customer service and operational efficiency have both improved. It is not only the narrative's
climax; it is a turning point in the storyline.

Vehicles that drive themselves might stand to gain from this in the future if it is done right. In
addition, road infrastructure aids in the identification and description of non-negligible living
methods that are otherwise difficult to detect and characterize. This provides a more accurate
picture of the infrastructure. Long-term, the method's objective is to connect every car on the
highway. Scientific and technological breakthroughs have had a significant impact on the
worldwide hospitality infrastructure in recent years. In many developed countries, the hotel
business has had a favorable effect on the economy due to its size and prominence in the global
economy.

It is vital to keep in mind that not everyone can afford a long vacation. Some people will never
be able to travel because they lack the financial means to do so or because of other factors, such
as the fact that they have pets. Several businesses have sprouted to represent the concept of
digital travel. Groupings like this might be used by Bharat Darshan in their programming, among
other things. Customers' wish lists are kept on file so that they may better serve future customers.

In our opinion, the website of the organization will be seen by over 12,000 individuals.
P= 0.91

The probability for the organization to get fewer hits than 9000 lies at,

P= 1-(9000/10000)

= 0.1

Conclusion

Keep in mind that not everyone can afford a lengthy vacation while arranging a getaway. Due to
financial restraints and other issues, the presence of pets in the home may restrict certain
individuals from traveling at any one time. Virtual travel groups are gaining popularity in the
same manner. As an example, a non-profit like Bharat Darshan might be used.