Chapter 8 - Production Prediction
Chapter 8 - Production Prediction
Introduction
Parameters Influencing Reservoir Simulation Results
Simulation Scenarios Design
Probabilistic Production Forecasting
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Introduction
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Introduction
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Production constraints
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Simulation Scenarios Design
Example for scenarios design:
Scenario 1
Gas rate target without limiting a bottom-hole pressure target or lower limit; Well Gas
i. 200 Mscf/D from 1st Jan 2014 to 2nd Jan 2014 (1 day)
ii. 400 Mscf/D from 2nd Jan 2014 to 4th Jan 2014 (2 days)
iii. 800 Mscf/D from 4th Jan 2014 to 7th Jan 2014 (3 days)
iv. 1600 Mscf/D from 7th Jan 2014 to 11th Jan 2014 (4 days)
v. Shut in well from 11th Jan 2014 to 21st Jan 2014 (10 days)
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Simulation Scenarios Design
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Simulation Scenarios Design
Scenario 1
Bottom-hole pressure target without limiting gas rate target or upper limit, specified
at different Report steps as follows:
i. Set WBHP target at 400 psia (lowest possible for this system) from 1st Jan 2014 to
11th Jan 2014 (10 days)
ii. Shut in well from 11th Jan 2014 to 21st Jan 2014 (10 days)
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Simulation Scenarios Design
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Sensitivity Analysis
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Probabilistic Production Forecasting
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Probabilistic Production Forecasting
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Probabilistic Production Forecasting
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Probabilistic Production Forecasting
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Probabilistic Production Forecasting
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Chapter Quiz
(fill-in-the-blank questions and/or constructed response questions)
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Chapter Quiz
(fill-in-the-blank questions and/or constructed response questions)
9. What role does the P10 value play in influencing the production
forecast, and how does it differ from P50 and P90?
10. How does the selection of P10, P50, and P90 percentiles impact the
range and confidence level of the probabilistic production forecast
in reservoir simulation?
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Quartile
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