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Chapter 8 - Production Prediction

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24 views18 pages

Chapter 8 - Production Prediction

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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Chapter Outline

 Introduction
 Parameters Influencing Reservoir Simulation Results
 Simulation Scenarios Design
 Probabilistic Production Forecasting

11/29/2024 Dr. Mai Cao Lan - Faculty of Geology & Petroleum Engineering, HCMUT 196
Introduction

What is production prediction for?


 Evaluate future performance for different operating strategies
 Find and recover hydrocarbons left over from primary
depletion
 Use for reservoir management, economic decisions

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Introduction

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Production constraints

 Constraints related to flow


o Maximum water-cut or maximum GOR per well
o Maximum water production or gas production for a group
of wells
 Constraints related to pressure
o Minimum bottom hole flowing pressure
o Minimum well head pressure

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Simulation Scenarios Design
Example for scenarios design:
Scenario 1

Gas rate target without limiting a bottom-hole pressure target or lower limit; Well Gas

Production Rates at different Report Steps are specified as follows

i. 200 Mscf/D from 1st Jan 2014 to 2nd Jan 2014 (1 day)

ii. 400 Mscf/D from 2nd Jan 2014 to 4th Jan 2014 (2 days)

iii. 800 Mscf/D from 4th Jan 2014 to 7th Jan 2014 (3 days)

iv. 1600 Mscf/D from 7th Jan 2014 to 11th Jan 2014 (4 days)

v. Shut in well from 11th Jan 2014 to 21st Jan 2014 (10 days)

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Simulation Scenarios Design

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Simulation Scenarios Design

Example for scenarios design:

Scenario 1
Bottom-hole pressure target without limiting gas rate target or upper limit, specified
at different Report steps as follows:
i. Set WBHP target at 400 psia (lowest possible for this system) from 1st Jan 2014 to
11th Jan 2014 (10 days)

ii. Shut in well from 11th Jan 2014 to 21st Jan 2014 (10 days)

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Simulation Scenarios Design

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Sensitivity Analysis

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Probabilistic Production Forecasting

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Probabilistic Production Forecasting

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Probabilistic Production Forecasting

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Probabilistic Production Forecasting

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Probabilistic Production Forecasting

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Chapter Quiz
(fill-in-the-blank questions and/or constructed response questions)

1. What is the objective of production prediction?


2. What are the key results focused on in production prediction?
3. What factors influence a good production prediction results?
4. Which parameters affect the reservoir simulation results in
production forecasting?
5. Why does economic decision-making depend on production
prediction?
6. What is the purpose of probabilistic production forecasting?
7. What are P10, P50, and P90? Why are they important in
probabilistic production forecasting?
8. What is the difference between P (Percetile) and Q (Quartile)?

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Chapter Quiz
(fill-in-the-blank questions and/or constructed response questions)

9. What role does the P10 value play in influencing the production
forecast, and how does it differ from P50 and P90?
10. How does the selection of P10, P50, and P90 percentiles impact the
range and confidence level of the probabilistic production forecast
in reservoir simulation?

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Quartile

11/29/2024 Dr. Mai Cao Lan - Faculty of Geology & Petroleum Engineering, HCMUT 212

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