1.

Model

A model is a simplified representation of reality constructed to understand, predict, or analyze a

system's behavior. It can be physical, conceptual, or mathematical.

Advantages of Models:

1. Simplifies complex systems.

2. Helps in predicting outcomes.
3. Aids decision-making.
4. Identifies gaps in understanding.
5. Improves system control and optimization.

2. Types and Classification of Models

a) Types of Models

1. Physical Models: Real-world replicas used for testing.

2. Empirical Models: Based on observed data with no underlying assumptions.
3. Mathematical Models: Use equations to represent real-world systems.
4. Conceptual Models: Diagrammatic representations of ideas.
5. Simulation Models: Computational tools for testing systems.

b) Classification of Models

1. Deterministic vs. Stochastic: Deterministic models predict precise outcomes, while

stochastic models incorporate randomness.
2. Static vs. Dynamic: Static models describe systems at a specific time; dynamic models
account for change over time.
3. Continuous vs. Discrete: Continuous models use differential equations, while discrete
models analyze at intervals.

3. Mathematical Model

A mathematical model is a formal representation of a system using mathematical language,

equations, and assumptions.
Advantages:

1. Provides precise insights.

2. Allows for predictive simulations.
3. Scales to complex systems.
4. Offers flexibility in analysis.
5. Aids in optimization and control.

4. Statistical Model

A statistical model predicts the relationship between variables using probability distributions and
data analysis.

Advantages:

1. Accounts for variability in data.

2. Identifies trends and patterns.
3. Incorporates uncertainty.
4. Provides hypothesis testing.
5. Easily integrates empirical data.

5. Stages of Building a Model

1. Define Objectives: Understand the purpose and requirements.

2. System Analysis: Identify boundaries, variables, and parameters.
3. Build Model: Choose assumptions and mathematical relationships.
4. Test Model: Validate against real-world data.
5. Use Model: Apply for predictions or decision-making.

6. Objectives of Modelling

1. Develop scientific understanding.

2. Predict system behavior.
3. Aid in decision-making (tactical and strategic).
4. Test the impact of changes.
5. Optimize system performance.
7. Types of Mathematical Modelling

1. Mechanistic Models: Based on theoretical processes.

2. Empirical Models: Derived from observed data.
3. Deterministic Models: Produce fixed outputs.
4. Stochastic Models: Account for randomness.
5. Dynamic Models: Evolve over time.

8. System Analysis

a) Making Assumptions

1. Define key variables and their interactions.

2. Identify simplifying assumptions.
3. Validate assumptions through examples.
4. Ensure clarity and precision in assumptions.
5. Adapt assumptions based on model scope.

b) Flow Diagrams

1. Visualize system components.

2. Represent flows (material, energy, information).
3. Aid in identifying key relationships.
4. Simplify communication of the system.
5. Use standardized symbols for consistency.

9. Advantages of Modelling

1. Clarifies system behavior.

2. Improves prediction accuracy.
3. Supports decision-making.
4. Facilitates sensitivity analysis.
5. Enhances understanding of complex systems.
10. Steps Required in Building a Mathematical Model

1. Identify the problem.

2. Define system boundaries and parameters.
3. Formulate equations.
4. Solve equations analytically or numerically.
5. Validate against empirical data.

11. Difference Between Mathematical and Statistical Models

Aspect Mathematical Models Statistical Models

Basis Theoretical assumptions Empirical data
Precision High Moderate
Uncertainty Ignored Incorporated
Applications Physics, engineering Economics, social sciences
Complexity Often complex Generally simpler

12. Dimensional Analysis, Asymptotic Behavior, and Sensitivity Analysis

a) Dimensional Analysis: Simplifies models by converting variables into dimensionless forms.

b) Asymptotic Behavior: Examines system behavior as time or input approaches limits.
c) Sensitivity Analysis: Analyzes how variations in parameters affect outcomes.

13. Testing Model Assumptions

1. Validate assumptions with real-world data.

2. Check for linearity and deterministic behavior.
3. Relax assumptions to assess robustness.
4. Identify impact of unwarranted assumptions.
5. Iteratively refine assumptions.

14. Model Structure

1. Organize based on system components.

2. Test structural stability.
3. Validate sub-models.
4. Identify spurious effects.
5. Refine based on application requirements.
15. Qualitative vs. Quantitative Behavior of Models

Behavior Type Description

Qualitative Describes system trends and directions.
Quantitative Measures specific outcomes and magnitudes.

16. Modeling Using Straight Lines

Straight-line models represent linear relationships between variables, ideal for regression and
simple system modeling.

Advantages:

1. Simple to understand.
2. Easy to compute.
3. Applicable to many real-world systems.
4. Supports extrapolation and interpolation.
5. Provides a basis for more complex models.

a) Deterministic Models

• Empirical: Fixed relationships based on observed data (e.g., cattle growth via
regression).
• Mechanistic: Predict outcomes using theoretical principles (e.g., planetary motion via
Newton’s laws).

b) Stochastic Models

• Empirical: Describe probabilities and variability in random processes (e.g., crop yields).
• Mechanistic: Combine theoretical principles with randomness (e.g., predator-prey
systems with stochastic births).
 PAST QUESTION 2022/2023

1. Mathematical Modelling Concepts

a. Dimensional Analysis

• Definition: A technique to reduce physical equations into dimensionless forms by

eliminating units, making them simpler and easier to compare across different systems.

b. Asymptotic Analysis

• Definition: Focuses on analyzing the behavior of a model as one or more variables

approach extreme values (e.g., infinity, zero).
• Example: For the logistic model dydt=ry(a−y)\frac{dy}{dt} = ry(a-y), as t→∞t \to \infty,
y→ay \to a, meaning the population stabilizes.

c. Sensitivity Analysis

• Definition: Investigates how variations in input parameters influence the output of a

model.
• Advantage: Helps identify the most critical parameters, enabling focused improvements.

d. Testing Model Assumptions

• Definition: Verifies whether the assumptions used to create the model are valid by
comparing predictions with real-world data.

e. Model Structure

• Definition: The arrangement and interaction of components in a model to represent a

system’s behavior.
• Example: In a predator-prey model, population sizes and growth rates are interconnected
through null-clines to determine equilibrium points.

2. Mathematical Modelling Basics

a. What is Mathematical Modelling?

• Definition: The process of formulating real-world problems into mathematical equations

or systems to analyze, simulate, or predict behaviors quantitatively.
• Example: Modeling cattle weight growth using differential equations based on energy
intake and expenditure.
b. Four Advantages of Mathematical Modelling

1. Simplifies complex real-world problems for better understanding.

2. Enables accurate predictions of future behavior.
3. Supports decision-making in fields like engineering and biology.
4. Identifies system inefficiencies, guiding optimizations.

c. Steps in the Modelling Process

1. Define the problem and objectives clearly.

2. Analyze the system and define boundaries.
3. Make simplifying assumptions.
4. Identify variables and parameters.
5. Construct mathematical equations.
6. Solve equations using analytical or numerical methods.
7. Validate the model and refine if necessary.

3. Modelling Comparisons and Classifications

a. Differences Between Mathematical and Statistical Models

Aspect Mathematical Models Statistical Models
Purpose Explain processes based on Predict outcomes using data
theory. trends.
Nature Deterministic (fixed outcomes). Stochastic (random outcomes).
Data Dependence Relies on theoretical principles. Relies heavily on empirical data.
Explanatory High (explains causality). Limited to observed relationships.
Power
Applicability Used for system understanding. Adapted for new datasets.

b. Classifications of Models

1. Static vs. Dynamic Models: Static models describe systems at one point, while dynamic
models show evolution over time.
2. Continuous vs. Discrete Models: Continuous models use differential equations; discrete
models use difference equations.
3. Deterministic vs. Stochastic Models: Deterministic models have fixed outcomes, while
stochastic models include randomness.
4. Empirical vs. Mechanistic Models: Empirical models rely on data, while mechanistic
models rely on theoretical understanding.
4. Assumptions and Model Behavior

a. Making Assumptions

• Definition: Assumptions simplify a system to make it mathematically manageable.

• Assumption: Population grows exponentially in the absence of constraints.

b. Qualitative vs. Quantitative Behavior

• Qualitative Behavior: Describes "how" a system behaves (e.g., whether a population

stabilizes or oscillates).
• Quantitative Behavior: Provides numerical predictions (e.g., exact population size at a
given time).

5. Sensitivity Analysis and Linear Programming

a. Sensitivity Analysis

• Definition: A process to evaluate how variations in input parameters affect the model's
outcomes.
• Example: Adjusting feed quality to study its effect on cattle weight gain.

5. Sensitivity Analysis and Linear Programming Example

a. What is Sensitivity Analysis?

Sensitivity analysis determines how changes in input affect model output.

c. Sensitivity Analysis Types

1. Price Sensitivity: Changes in profit due to varying prices.

2. Resource Sensitivity: Changes in constraints (e.g., increasing lumber).
3. Coefficient Sensitivity: Changes in efficiency, such as reducing labor hours.