11/8/2013

Chapter 5: Probability: What are the Chances?

Section 5.1
Randomness, Probability, and Simulation
The Practice of Statistics, 4th edition – For AP*
STARNES, YATES, MOORE

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Chapter 5
Probability: What Are the Chances?

 5.1 Randomness, Probability, and Simulation

 5.2 Probability Rules

 5.3 Conditional Probability and Independence

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+ Section 5.1
Randomness, Probability, and Simulation

Learning Objectives
After this section, you should be able to…

 DESCRIBE the idea of probability

 DESCRIBE myths about randomness

 DESIGN and PERFORM simulations

 The Idea of Probability

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Randomness, Probability, and Simulation
Chance behavior is unpredictable in the short run, but has a regular and
predictable pattern in the long run.

The law of large numbers says that if we observe more and more
repetitions of any chance process, the proportion of times that a
specific outcome occurs approaches a single value.
Definition:
The probability of any outcome of a chance process is a
number between 0 (never occurs) and 1(always occurs) that
describes the proportion of times the outcome would occur in a
very long series of repetitions.

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 Myths about Randomness

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Randomness, Probability, and Simulation
The idea of probability seems straightforward. However, there
are several myths of chance behavior we must address.

The myth of short-run regularity:

The idea of probability is that randomness is predictable in the long
run. Our intuition tries to tell us random phenomena should also be
predictable in the short run. However, probability does not allow us to
make short-run predictions.
The myth of the “law of averages”:
Probability tells us random behavior evens out in the long run. Future
outcomes are not affected by past behavior. That is, past outcomes
do not influence the likelihood of individual outcomes occurring in the
future.

 Simulation

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Randomness, Probability, and Simulation
The imitation of chance behavior, based on a model that
accurately reflects the situation, is called a simulation.

Performing a Simulation
State: What is the question of interest about some chance process?
Plan: Describe how to use a chance device to imitate one repetition of the
process. Explain clearly how to identify the outcomes of the chance
process and what variable to measure.
Do: Perform many repetitions of the simulation.
Conclude: Use the results of your simulation to answer the question of
interest.

We can use physical devices, random numbers (e.g. Table D), and
technology to perform simulations.

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 Example: Golden Ticket Parking Lottery

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Read the example on page 290.

What is the probability that a fair lottery would result in two

winners from the AP Statistics class?
Reading across row 139 in Table
Students Labels
D, look at pairs of digits until you
AP Statistics Class 01-28 see two different labels from 01-
Other 29-95 95. Record whether or not both
winners are members of the AP
Skip numbers from 96-00 Statistics Class.
55 | 58 89 | 94 04 | 70 70 | 84 10|98|43 56 | 35 69 | 34 48 | 39 45 | 17
X|X X|X ✓|X X|X ✓|Sk|X X|X X|X X|X X|✓
No No No No No No No No No

19 | 12 97|51|32 58 | 13 04 | 84 51 | 44 72 | 32 18 | 19 40|00|36 00|24|28

✓|✓ Sk|X|X X|✓ ✓|X X|X X|X ✓|✓ X|Sk|X Sk|✓|✓
Yes No No No No No Yes No Yes
Based on 18 repetitions of our simulation, both winners came from the AP Statistics
class 3 times, so the probability is estimated as 16.67%.

 Example: NASCAR Cards and Cereal Boxes

Read the example on page 291. +
What is the probability that it will take 23 or more boxes to get a
full set of 5 NASCAR collectible cards?
Driver Label Use randInt(1,5) to simulate buying one box of
Jeff Gordon 1 cereal and looking at which card is inside. Keep
pressing Enter until we get all five of the labels
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 2 from 1 to 5. Record the number of boxes we
Tony Stewart 3 had to open.
Danica Patrick 4
Jimmie Johnson 5

3 5 2 1 5 2 3 5 4 9 boxes
4 3 5 3 5 1 1 1 5 3 1 5 4 5 2 15 boxes
5 5 5 2 4 1 2 1 5 3 10 boxes

We never had to buy more than 22 boxes to get the full set of cards in 50 repetitions of
our simulation. Our estimate of the probability that it takes 23 or more boxes to get a
full set is roughly 0.

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+ Section 5.1
Randomness, Probability, and Simulation
Summary
In this section, we learned that…

 A chance process has outcomes that we cannot predict but have a

regular distribution in many distributions.

 The law of large numbers says the proportion of times that a

particular outcome occurs in many repetitions will approach a single
number.

 The long-term relative frequency of a chance outcome is its

probability between 0 (never occurs) and 1 (always occurs).

 Short-run regularity and the law of averages are myths of probability.

 A simulation is an imitation of chance behavior.

+ Section 5.2
Probability Rules

Learning Objectives
After this section, you should be able to…

 DESCRIBE chance behavior with a probability model

 DEFINE and APPLY basic rules of probability

 DETERMINE probabilities from two-way tables

 CONSTRUCT Venn diagrams and DETERMINE probabilities

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 Probability Models

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Probability Rules
In Section 5.1, we used simulation to imitate chance behavior.
Fortunately, we don’t have to always rely on simulations to determine
the probability of a particular outcome.

Descriptions of chance behavior contain two parts:

Definition:
The sample space S of a chance process is the set of all
possible outcomes.

A probability model is a description of some chance process

that consists of two parts: a sample space S and a probability
for each outcome.

 Example: Roll the Dice

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Probability Rules
Give a probability model for the chance process of rolling two
fair, six-sided dice – one that’s red and one that’s green.

Sample Since the dice are fair, each

Space outcome is equally likely.
36 Each outcome has
Outcomes probability 1/36.

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 Probability Models

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Probability Rules
Probability models allow us to find the probability of any
collection of outcomes.
Definition:
An event is any collection of outcomes from some chance
process. That is, an event is a subset of the sample space.
Events are usually designated by capital letters, like A, B, C,
and so on.
If A is any event, we write its probability as P(A).

In the dice-rolling example, suppose we define event A as “sum is 5.”

There are 4 outcomes that result in a sum of 5.

Since each outcome has probability 1/36, P(A) = 4/36.

Suppose event B is defined as “sum is not 5.” What is P(B)? P(B) = 1 – 4/36
= 32/36

 Basic Rules of Probability

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Probability Rules
All probability models must obey the following rules:
 The probability of any event is a number between 0 and 1.
 All possible outcomes together must have probabilities whose sum
is 1.
 If all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely, the
probability that event A occurs can be found using the formula
number of outcomes corresponding to event A
P(A) 
total number of outcomes in sample space

 The probability that an event does not occur is 1 minus the

probability that the event does occur.

 If two events have no outcomes in common, the probability that
one or the other occurs is the sum of their individual probabilities.
Definition:
Two events are mutually exclusive (disjoint) if they have no
outcomes in common and so can never occur together.

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 Basic Rules of Probability

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Probability Rules
• For any event A, 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1.
• If S is the sample space in a probability model,
P(S) = 1.
• In the case of equally likely outcomes,
number of outcomes corresponding to event A
P(A) 
total number of outcomes in sample space

• Complement rule: P(AC) = 1 – P(A)

• Addition rule for mutually exclusive events: If A

and B are mutually exclusive,
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B).

 Example: Distance Learning

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Probability Rules
Distance-learning courses are rapidly gaining popularity among
college students. Randomly select an undergraduate student
who is taking distance-learning courses for credit and record
the student’s age. Here is the probability model:

Age group (yr): 18 to 23 24 to 29 30 to 39 40 or over

Probability: 0.57 0.17 0.14 0.12

(a) Show that this is a legitimate probability model.

Each probability is between 0 and 1 and
0.57 + 0.17 + 0.14 + 0.12 = 1
(b) Find the probability that the chosen student is not in the
traditional college age group (18 to 23 years).
P(not 18 to 23 years) = 1 – P(18 to 23 years)
= 1 – 0.57 = 0.43

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 Two-Way Tables and Probability

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Probability Rules
When finding probabilities involving two events, a two-way table can display
the sample space in a way that makes probability calculations easier.

Consider the example on page 303. Suppose we choose a student at

random. Find the probability that the student

(a) has pierced ears.

(b) is a male with pierced ears.

(c) is a male or has pierced ears.

Define events A: is male and B: has pierced ears.
(a) Each student is equally likely to be chosen. 103 students have pierced ears.
So, P(pierced ears) = P(B) = 103/178.
(b) We want to find P(male and pierced ears), that is, P(A and B). Look at the intersection of the
“Male” row and “Yes” column. There are 19 males with pierced ears. So, P(A and B) = 19/178.

(c) We want to find P(male or pierced ears), that is, P(A or B). There are 90 males in the class and
103 individuals with pierced ears. However, 19 males have pierced ears – don’t count them twice!
P(A or B) = (19 + 71 + 84)/178. So, P(A or B) = 174/178

 Two-Way Tables and Probability

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Probability Rules
Note, the previous example illustrates the fact that we can’t use
the addition rule for mutually exclusive events unless the
events have no outcomes in common.

The Venn diagram below illustrates why.

General Addition Rule for Two Events

If A and B are any two events resulting from some chance process, then
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

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 Venn Diagrams and Probability

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Probability Rules
Because Venn diagrams have uses in other branches of
mathematics, some standard vocabulary and notation have
been developed.

The complement AC contains exactly the outcomes that are not in A.

The events A and B are mutually exclusive (disjoint) because they do not
overlap. That is, they have no outcomes in common.

 Venn Diagrams and Probability

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Probability Rules
The intersection of events A and B (A ∩ B) is the set of all outcomes
in both events A and B.

The union of events A and B (A ∪ B) is the set of all outcomes in either

event A or B.

Hint: To keep the symbols straight, remember ∪ for union and ∩ for intersection.

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 Venn Diagrams and Probability

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Probability Rules
Recall the example on gender and pierced ears. We can use a Venn
diagram to display the information and determine probabilities.

Define events A: is male and B: has pierced ears.

+ Section 5.2
Probability Rules
Summary
In this section, we learned that…

 A probability model describes chance behavior by listing the possible

outcomes in the sample space S and giving the probability that each
outcome occurs.
 An event is a subset of the possible outcomes in a chance process.
 For any event A, 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
 P(S) = 1, where S = the sample space
number of outcomes corresponding to event A
 If all outcomes in S are equally likely, P(A) 
total number of outcomes in sample space

 P(AC) = 1 – P(A), where AC is the complement of event A; that is, the

event that A does not happen. 

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+ Section 5.2
Probability Rules
Summary
In this section, we learned that…

 Events A and B are mutually exclusive (disjoint) if they have no outcomes

in common. If A and B are disjoint, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B).

 A two-way table or a Venn diagram can be used to display the sample

space for a chance process.

 The intersection (A ∩ B) of events A and B consists of outcomes in both A

and B.

 The union (A ∪ B) of events A and B consists of all outcomes in event A,

event B, or both.

 The general addition rule can be used to find P(A or B):

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

+Section 5.3
Conditional Probability and Independence

Learning Objectives
After this section, you should be able to…

 DEFINE conditional probability

 COMPUTE conditional probabilities

 DESCRIBE chance behavior with a tree diagram

 DEFINE independent events

 DETERMINE whether two events are independent

 APPLY the general multiplication rule to solve probability questions

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 What is Conditional Probability?

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Conditional Probability and Independence
The probability we assign to an event can change if we know that some
other event has occurred. This idea is the key to many applications of
probability.

When we are trying to find the probability that one event will happen
under the condition that some other event is already known to have
occurred, we are trying to determine a conditional probability.

Definition:
The probability that one event happens given that another event
is already known to have happened is called a conditional
probability. Suppose we know that event A has happened.
Then the probability that event B happens given that event A
has happened is denoted by P(B | A).

Read | as “given that”

or “under the
condition that”

 Example: Grade Distributions

Consider the two-way table on page 314. Define events
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Conditional Probability and Independence

E: the grade comes from an EPS course, and

L: the grade is lower than a B.

Total
6300
1600
2100
Total 3392 2952 3656 10000

Find P(L)
P(L) = 3656 / 10000 = 0.3656
Find P(E | L)
P(E | L) = 800 / 3656 = 0.2188
Find P(L | E)
P(L| E) = 800 / 1600 = 0.5000

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 Conditional Probability and Independence

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Conditional Probability and Independence
When knowledge that one event has happened does not change
the likelihood that another event will happen, we say the two
events are independent.

Definition:
Two events A and B are independent if the occurrence of one
event has no effect on the chance that the other event will
happen. In other words, events A and B are independent if
P(A | B) = P(A) and P(B | A) = P(B).
Example:
Are the events “male” and “left-handed”
independent? Justify your answer.

P(left-handed | male) = 3/23 = 0.13

P(left-handed) = 7/50 = 0.14

These probabilities are not equal, therefore the

events “male” and “left-handed” are not independent.

 Tree Diagrams
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Conditional Probability and Independence
We learned how to describe the sample space S of a chance
process in Section 5.2. Another way to model chance
behavior that involves a sequence of outcomes is to construct
a tree diagram.

Consider flipping a
coin twice.

What is the probability

of getting two heads?

Sample Space:
HH HT TH TT

So, P(two heads) = P(HH) = 1/4

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 General Multiplication Rule

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Conditional Probability and Independence
The idea of multiplying along the branches in a tree diagram
leads to a general method for finding the probability P(A ∩ B)
that two events happen together.

General Multiplication Rule

The probability that events A and B both occur can be
found using the general multiplication rule
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) • P(B | A)
where P(B | A) is the conditional probability that event
B occurs given that event A has already occurred.

 Example: Teens with Online Profiles

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Conditional Probability and Independence
The Pew Internet and American Life Project finds that 93% of teenagers (ages
12 to 17) use the Internet, and that 55% of online teens have posted a profile
on a social-networking site.

What percent of teens are online and have posted a profile?

P(online)  0.93
P(profile | online)  0.55

P(online and have profile)  P(online) P(profile | online)

  (0.93)(0.55)
  0.5115

51.15% of teens are online and have

 a profile.
posted

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 Example: Who Visits YouTube?

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See the example on page 320 regarding adult Internet users.

What percent of all adult Internet users visit video-sharing sites?

P(video yes ∩ 18 to 29) = 0.27 • 0.7

=0.1890

P(video yes ∩ 30 to 49) = 0.45 • 0.51

=0.2295

P(video yes ∩ 50 +) = 0.28 • 0.26

=0.0728

P(video yes) = 0.1890 + 0.2295 + 0.0728 = 0.4913

 Independence: A Special Multiplication Rule

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Conditional Probability and Independence
When events A and B are independent, we can simplify the
general multiplication rule since P(B| A) = P(B).

Definition:
Multiplication rule for independent events
If A and B are independent events, then the probability that A
and B both occur is
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) • P(B)

Example:
Following the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster, it was determined that the failure
of O-ring joints in the shuttle’s booster rockets was to blame. Under cold
conditions, it was estimated that the probability that an individual O-ring joint would
function properly was 0.977. Assuming O-ring joints succeed or fail independently,
what is the probability all six would function properly?

P(joint1 OK and joint 2 OK and joint 3 OK and joint 4 OK and joint 5 OK and joint 6 OK)
=P(joint 1 OK) • P(joint 2 OK) • … • P(joint 6 OK)
=(0.977)(0.977)(0.977)(0.977)(0.977)(0.977) = 0.87

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 Calculating Conditional Probabilities

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Conditional Probability and Independence
If we rearrange the terms in the general multiplication rule, we
can get a formula for the conditional probability P(B | A).

General Multiplication Rule

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) • P(B | A)

Conditional Probability Formula

To find the conditional probability P(B | A), use the formula

 Example: Who Reads the Newspaper?

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Conditional Probability and Independence
In Section 5.2, we noted that residents of a large apartment complex can be
classified based on the events A: reads USA Today and B: reads the New
York Times. The Venn Diagram below describes the residents.

What is the probability that a randomly selected resident who reads USA
Today also reads the New York Times?

P(A  B)
P(B | A) 
P(A)

P(A  B)  0.05
P(A)  0.40

0.05
P(B | A)   0.125
0.40

There is a 12.5% chance that a randomly selected resident who reads USA
Today also reads the New York Times.



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+ Section 5.3
Conditional Probability and Independence
Summary
In this section, we learned that…

 If one event has happened, the chance that another event will happen is a
conditional probability. P(B|A) represents the probability that event B
occurs given that event A has occurred.
 Events A and B are independent if the chance that event B occurs is not
affected by whether event A occurs. If two events are mutually exclusive
(disjoint), they cannot be independent.
 When chance behavior involves a sequence of outcomes, a tree diagram
can be used to describe the sample space.
 The general multiplication rule states that the probability of events A
and B occurring together is P(A ∩ B)=P(A) • P(B|A)
 In the special case of independent events, P(A ∩ B)=P(A) • P(B)
 The conditional probability formula states P(B|A) = P(A ∩ B) / P(A)

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