Scribd
Upload
6 views2 pages

ICP Set3

Questions for probability for engineering in civil department

Uploaded by

harshgupta5700
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
6 views2 pages

ICP Set3

Questions for probability for engineering in civil department

Uploaded by

harshgupta5700
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 2

CE 463 Probabilistic and Statistical Methods in Civil Engineering (S2)

August 16, 21, and 23, 2024

In-class Problems (Set 3)

1. The drainage from a community during a storm is a normal random variable estimated to
have a mean of 1.2 million gallon per day (mgd) and a standard deviation of 0.4 mgd.
Calculate the following -

(a) What is the probability that the drainage during a storm will be between 1.0 mgd and
1.6 mgd?
(b) What is the 90-th percentile drainage load from the community during a storm?
(c) If a storm drain system in the community is designed with a maximum drainage
capacity of 1.5 mgd, what is the probability of flooding during a storm that is
considered in the design of the drainage system?

2. Redo problem 3 assuming that the distribution of storm drainage from the community is a
lognormal distribution instead of normal.

3. Five road girders are used in a highway project. The operational life T of each girder is
known to have lognormal distribution with a mean life of 1500 hrs and COV of 30%.
Assume statistical independence among the conditions of the machines.
(a) What is the probability that two of them will malfunction in less than 900 hrs of
operation?
(b) What is the probability that all machines will be operational within 900 hrs of
operation?

4. The code for building design in a coastal region specifies the 50-yr wind as the “design
wind”. That is, the design wind is expected to occur (on an average) once in every 50 year.
(a) What is the probability that such a wind velocity will occur once in 5 years?
(b) What is the probability that a newly constructed building in this region will experience
the design wind velocity for the first time on the fifth year after its completion?
(c) What is the probability that such a wind velocity will occur for the first time within 5
year after the completion of the building?
(d) What is the probability that the building will be subjected to the design wind for the
third time on the tenth year?

5. Historical records of rainstorms in a town indicate that on the average there had been 4
rainstorms per year over last 20 years. Assuming that the occurrence of rainstorms is a
Poisson process,
(a) What is the probability that there would be no rainstorm next year?
(b) What is the probability of having exactly 4 rainstorms in the next year?
(c) What is the probability of having 2 or more rainstorms in the next year?

Page 1 of 2
6. Historical records of earthquakes in San Francisco from 1836 to 1961 shows that there were
16 earthquakes with ground motion intensity in MM-scale of VI or higher. If the occurrence
of such high intensity earthquakes in the San-Francisco-Bay area can be assumed to follow
Poisson process,
(a) What is the return period of such earthquake? What is the probability of occurring a
similar earthquake in this region within its return period?
(b) What is the probability that no earthquake of this high intensity will occur in the next
10 years?
(c) What is the probability that such earthquake will occur within next 2 year?

Page 2 of 2

You might also like