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Uncertainty Modeling in AI - Quiz

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63 views8 pages

Uncertainty Modeling in AI - Quiz

Uploaded by

abirpahlwan
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Uncertainty Modeling in AI

Midterm Quiz
Marks: 30
Fall 2020-21
General Instructions
• Please read all questions carefully once before starting to answer questions.
• About 50 minutes into the exam + 10 minutes (Buffering and uploading the answers).
• If a question is unclear or ambiguous, feel free to make the additional assumptions necessary to
write the answer.
• Make a PDF version of your answer script and submit it through the links given in MS Teams.
Bayesian Network
For the given Bayesian network, answer the following questions:

1. Write down the expression for the joint probability distribution as a product of conditional
probabilities given with the given Bayesian network.
3
2. Apply variable elimination to compute the probability P(R=True, S=True). Note, all random
variables are binary and can take either value True or False.
6
3. Convert the following Bayesian networks into junction trees. 2+4=6

Artificial Neural Network


4. Consider the following neural network and find error using forward pass backpropagation at
each node 4,5, and 6 while actual output of node 6 is value 1.
10

Initial Input and Weight Values


Hidden Markov Model
Consider a Markov chain
that represents the
probability that a child left
alone in her
room will be awake or
asleep. There are two states
{awake, asleep}, and two
possible observations
coming from the room
{noise, quiet}. The
transition and emission
probabilities are noted in
the
following diagram:
transitions are shown with
solid arrows, and emissions
with dashed arrows.
(Note that the diagram is
identical to the one
discussed in class, but the
probabilities are different!)
Consider a Markov chain
that represents the
probability that a child left
alone in her
room will be awake or
asleep. There are two states
{awake, asleep}, and two
possible observations
coming from the room
{noise, quiet}. The
transition and emission
probabilities are noted in
the
following diagram:
transitions are shown with
solid arrows, and emissions
with dashed arrows.
(Note that the diagram is
identical to the one
discussed in class, but the
probabilities are different!)
Consider a Markov chain
that represents the
probability that a child left
alone in her
room will be awake or
asleep. There are two states
{awake, asleep}, and two
possible observations
coming from the room
{noise, quiet}. The
transition and emission
probabilities are noted in
the
following diagram:
transitions are shown with
solid arrows, and emissions
with dashed arrows.
(Note that the diagram is
identical to the one
discussed in class, but the
probabilities are different!)
Consider a Markov chain
that represents the
probability that a child left
alone in her
room will be awake or
asleep. There are two states
{awake, asleep}, and two
possible observations
coming from the room
{noise, quiet}. The
transition and emission
probabilities are noted in
the
following diagram:
transitions are shown with
solid arrows, and emissions
with dashed arrows.
(Note that the diagram is
identical to the one
discussed in class, but the
probabilities are different!)
5. Consider a Markov chain that represents the probability of daily weather. There are three
states {cold, hot, rainy}, and seven possible observations coming from seven days in a
week {Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday}. The
transition and emission probabilities are noted in the following diagram: transitions are
shown with solid arrows, and emissions with dashed arrows.
(i) What is the probability of 4 consecutive rainy days? 2.5
(ii) What is the probability that the weather for next 4 days will be “hot-rain-cold-
hot?” 2.5

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