Conditional

probability
Saddam Hussen
A number is selected at random from the
three-digit numbers formed using the
digits {1,2,3,4,5,6,7} without repetition.
Find the probability that the selected
number is an even number

Apersepsi

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The number of outcomes in the sample space is 7 × 6 × 5 = 210.
There are also three even numbers in the set {1,2,3,4,5,6,7}.
So there are three possible choices for the units digit.
There are then six possible choices for the hundreds digit and five
possible choice for the tens digit.
So the number of outcomes in the event is 6 × 5 × 3 = 90
90 3
And desired probability is =
210 7

Solution

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 Conditional Probability. Definition
• Let 𝐴 and 𝐵 be two events in an Sometimes the outcome of an
experiment is affected by a related
experiment such that 𝑃 𝐵 ≠ 0 and event or by some additional
𝐵 has already occured. Then the conditions. These things can
modify the sample space and
probability that the event 𝐴 will therefore change the probabilty of
an event. This leads us to the
occur is called the conditional concept of conditional probability
probability of event 𝐴. Written as
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
𝑃 𝐴𝐵 =
𝑃(𝐵)

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 Example
A fair die is rolled twice. What is the probability
that the sum of the numbers rolled is 9 if it is
known that one of the numbers is 4

• Let 𝐴 be the event that the sum of the numbers is

9 and let 𝐵 be the event that one of the numbers
is 4.
• Then 𝐴 = { 3,6 , 6,3 , 4,5 , 5,4 } and
• 𝐵 = { 1,4 , 4,1 , 2,4 , 4,2 , 3,4 , 4,3 ,
4,4 , 4,5 , 5,4 , 4,6 , (6,4)}
We can see that 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 4,5 , 5,4 . So by the
definition of conditional probability, 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 =
2
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 36 2
= 11 =
𝑃 𝐵 11
36
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 Example
• Solution
Two dice are rolled. What is the probability that • Let the event that the sum is greater than 9 be 𝐴 and the
the sum of the numbers rolled will be greater than event that the first number is 6 be 𝐵.
9, given that the first die shows a 6?
• then
• 𝐴= 6,4 , 4,6 , 6, 5 , 5, 6 , 6, 6 , 5,5
• 𝐵 = { 6,1 , 6,2 , 6,3 , 6,4 , 6,5 , 6,6 }
3
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 3 1
• Hence the probability is 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 = = 36
6 =6=2
𝑃 𝐵
36

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• If we multiply both sides of the
equality in the formula for
MULTIPICLICATION
conditional probability by
𝑃(𝐵). RULE
• We get 𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 =
𝑃 𝐵 . 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵)

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 Example
A box contains 6 white, 3 red and 5
blue balls, A person chooses a ball at • Solution
random from the box and then • Since the person replaces the selected ball
replaces it. This is done three times. each time, the number of outcomes in the
What is the probability that the sample space in each case is 14. so the
person chooses first a white ball, then disired probability is
a blue ball, then a red ball
• 𝑃 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑟𝑒𝑑 =
6 5 3 45
× × =
14 14 14 1372

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 Example
Two card are drawn from a shuffled
deck of 52 cards, without
replacement. What is the probability
that the first card is a queen and the
second is an ace?

• Solution
• We want to find
• 𝑃 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 =
𝑃 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 . 𝑃 𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡) =
4 4 4
× =
52 51 663

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Imagine that we draw two cards one after the other
from a well-shuffled deck of cards. Then the outcome DEPENDENT AND
of the first, since the deck will be different on the
second draw. We can say that these two events are INDEPENDENT
dependent. Now consider the example of rolling a die
twice. The number we roll first has no effect on the EVENTS
number we roll after it. We say that these events are
independent.

• Definition . Independent evens

• Two events 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent events if
the outcomes in 𝐴 do not affect the outcomes
in 𝐵. Since we know from the multiplication
rule that 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 × 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) we can
write 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 × 𝑃(𝐵).
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 Example
A die is rolled and a coin is
tossed. Find the probability that
the die shows a 5 and the coin
shows a head
• Solution
• Rolling a die and tossing a coin are two
independent events, so the probability of
rolling a five (𝐹) and tossing a head (𝐻) is
1 1 1
𝑃 𝐹∩𝐻 =𝑃 𝐹 ×𝑃 𝐻 = × =
6 2 12

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 Example
Six men and 7 women apply for the
positions of manager and assistant
manager in a company. Each name is
written on a card and the cards are
• Solution all put in a box. Then two names are
selected in succession from the box at
• Since the name is not replaced after random, without replacement. What is
selecting the first person, the two events the probability that both of the people
are dependent. Let the first event be 𝐴 selected are men?
and the second event be 𝐵.
6
• Then 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 × 𝑃 𝐵 = ×
13
5 5
=
12 26

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 Problem

Comparing Dependent
and Independent Events
– You randomly select two cards from a
standard 52-card deck. What is the
probability that the first card is not a
face card (a king, queen, or jack) and
the second card is a face card if (a) you
replace the first card before selecting
the second, and (b) you do not replace
the first card?

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– If you replace the first card before selecting the
second card, then A and B are independent
events. So, the probability is:
40 12 30
– 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 × 𝑃 𝐵 = 52 × 52 = 169
– If you do not replace the first card before selecting
the second card, then A and B are dependent
events. So, the probability is: Solution
40 12 40
– 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 × 𝑃 𝐵|𝐴 = × =
52 51 221

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Thank You
Saddam hussen
................................
[email protected]
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