Introduction to Probability (概率簡介)

Part 1: Concept and Example

1. Basic Concepts of Probability

1.1 Meaning of Probability

Probability is a branch of mathematics that deals with the occurrence of an event.

That is, probability is a measure of the likelihood or chance of occurrence of an
event. Many events cannot be predicted with total certainty. Probability can range
from 0 to 1, where 0 means the event to be an impossible one and 1 indicates a
certain event.

In daily life, we often come across activities involving uncertainty in which we may
have to predict their outcomes. This kind of activities involves events that may or
may not happen. In such cases, we say that there is a probability of this event to
occur or not occur. For example, when a coin is tossed, we do not know whether a
head or a tail will be obtained.

We generally use probability to predict an activity is likely to happen and is not

likely to happen. For example, probability can be used to predict the outcomes of
tossing of a coin, throwing of a dice, or drawing a card from a pack of playing cards.

Probability can also be used to forecast the weather, to set the premium rates by
insurance companies, and to project the profit and loss in business etc.

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In probability, we are interested in the chances of a particular event taking place. For
example, getting a tail when you toss a coin or getting an odd number when you
throw a dice. The outcome of getting a tail is considered an event. The outcome of
getting an odd number is also considered an event.

In probability, an event (事件) can be defined as a specific outcome, or a set of

specific outcomes of an activity.

An event can be one or more outcomes. Getting a tail when tossing a coin is an
event. Showing an "even number" (2, 4 or 6) when throwing a dice is an event.

An event may or may not occur.

Some examples of events and their chances of occurrence are shown below.

Activity 1: A bag contains 20 red balls and 2 black balls. All the balls are identical.
A ball is drawn at random (随機) from the bag.
Event: A red ball is drawn.
This event is very likely to happen.

Activity 2: A bag contains 40 blue balls and 3 green balls. All the balls are identical.
A ball is drawn at random from the bag.
Event: A green ball is drawn.
This event is very unlikely to happen.

Activity 3: A fair coin is tossed.

Event: A ‘head’ or a ‘tail’ is obtained.
This event will certainly happen.

Activity 4: A fair dice is thrown.

Event: The dice shows a ‘9’.
This event is impossible to happen.

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Note:
(a) A ball is drawn at random from a bag.
The term 'at random' here means that each ball has an equal chance to be drawn from
the bag.
(b) A fair coin is tossed.
It means that each face (a head or a tail) of the coin has an equal chance to be shown
when the coin is tossed.
(c) A fair dice is thrown.
It means that each face (‘1’ , ‘2’ , ‘3’ , ‘4’, ‘5’ or ‘6’) of a dice has an equal chance
to be shown when the dice is thrown.

In daily life, the wordings such as 'impossible’, ‘unlikely’, ‘likely' or 'certainly' etc
are used to describe the likelihood or chance of occurrence of events, i.e. how likely
it is that an event will happen.

An event which is certainly to occur is called a certain event (必然事件).

An event which is impossible to occur is called an impossible event (不可能事件).
An event which may or may not occur is called a random event (隨機事件).
Note: Most of the events are random events.

Examples:
Activity All possible Event Favourable
outcomes outcome(s)
Toss a coin. ‘head’, ‘tail’ A ‘tail’ is obtained. ‘tail’
Throw a dice. ‘1’, ‘2’, ‘3’, ‘4’, A number less than 3 ‘1’, ‘2’
‘5’, ‘6’ is obtained.
Draw a ball from a Ⓐ, Ⓑ, Ⓒ, Ⓓ A green ball is Ⓑ, Ⓒ, Ⓓ
bag containing 4 obtained.
balls: Ⓐ, Ⓑ, Ⓒ, Ⓓ.

Choose a letter from ‘W’, ‘O’, ‘R’, A vowel (i.e. the ‘O’
the word ‘WORK’. ‘K’ letters A, E, I, O, U)
is obtained.
In Mathematics, we use a number to measure the likelihood or chance of occurrence
of an event precisely. Such a number is called the probability (概率) of the event.
We will learn how to calculate probabilities in the following sections.

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1.2 Probability of an Event

Whenever we do an experiment like tossing a coin or throwing a dice, we get an

outcome. For example, if we toss a coin, we get an outcome of a head or a tail, and if
we throw a dice, we get an outcome of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6.

Each result of an event that is likely to occur is called a possible outcome (可能結果).
An outcome which is favourable to the event is called a favourable outcome (合適结果).

To find the probability of an event in an activity, we need to first list out all the
possible outcomes of the activity, and then determine which of the possible
outcomes are favourable outcomes of the event.

The collection of all possible outcomes of an event is called the sample space (樣本
空間). It is a record of all possible outcomes of an event.

Consider the activity of tossing a coin.

a ‘Head’ a ‘Tail’
There are two possible outcomes of tossing a coin: head and tail.
These two possible outcomes form the sample space.

Consider the activity of throwing a dice.

There are six possible outcomes of throwing a dice: ‘1’ , ‘2’ , ‘3’ , ‘4’, ‘5’ and ‘6’.
These six possible outcomes form the sample space.

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Consider the activity of drawing a card from 13 playing cards of the same suit.

There are 13 possible outcomes of drawing a card: ‘A’ , ‘2’ , ‘3’ , ‘4’, ‘5’ ‘6’, ‘7’,
‘8’, ‘9’, ‘10’, ‘J’, ‘Q’ and ‘K’.
These 13 possible outcomes form the sample space.

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Playing cards

A pack (or deck) of 52 playing cards consists of 4 suits (Club, Spade, Heart, and
Diamond). Each suit contains 13 cards (Ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, Jack, Queen
and King).

Club

Spade

Heart

Diamond

52 cards = 4 Aces + 36 number cards + 12 face cards

Suits (Club, Spade, Heart, and Diamond)

(i) Ace

In the deck of 52 playing cards, there are 4 Aces.

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(ii) Number cards
They include 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.

In the deck of 52 playing cards, there are 36 number cards.

(iii) Face Cards

They include Jacks, Queens, and Kings.

In the deck of 52 playing cards, there are 12 face cards.

(iv) Black cards: They include all Clubs and Spades.

In the deck of 52 playing cards, there are 26 black cards.

(v) Red cards: They include all Hearts and Diamonds.

In the deck of 52 playing cards, there are 26 red cards.
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Probability can be defined as the ratio of ‘the number of outcomes favourable to the
event’ to ‘the total number of possible outcomes of that event’.

In an activity, suppose all the possible outcomes are equally likely to occur, we call
these outcomes the equally likely outcomes (等可能結果). For example, if a fair
dice is thrown, each of the six possible outcomes has an equal chance to occur.
These outcomes are the equally likely outcomes.

In an activity, assume that all the possible outcomes are equally likely to occur, then
the probability of an event is defined as:

𝐧𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐟𝐚𝐯𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝑬

P(E) =
𝐭𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐧𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬

where E denotes an event, and P(E) denotes the probability of event E.

Note:
(i) This definition can only be applied when all the possible outcomes are equally
likely to occur.
(ii) The greater the probability of an event, the higher is the chance of occurrence of
the event.

For example, if a fair dice is thrown, what is the probability of getting a number less
than ‘4’?
Total number of possible outcomes = 6
Number of favourable outcomes = 3
(Note: Among the six possible outcomes, only the outcomes ‘1’ , ‘2’ and ‘3’ ' are
less than '4'. )
𝟑 𝟏
Probability of getting a number less than ‘4’ = =
𝟔 𝟐

Example: A box contains 7 balls, in which only 3 are red. If a ball is drawn at random
from the box, find the probability that it is a red ball.
Solution
Total number of possible outcomes = 7
Number of favourable outcomes = 3
3
∴ P(red ball) =
7

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Example: In tossing a fair coin, find the probability of obtaining a head.
Solution
Total number of possible outcomes = 2
Number of favourable outcomes = 1
𝟏
∴ P(obtaining a head) =
𝟐

Example: If a day is chosen at random from a week, find the probability that it is a
weekday.
Solution
Total number of possible outcomes = 7
Number of favourable outcomes = 5
𝟓
∴ P(weekday) =
𝟕

Example: There are 60 balls in a bag, of which 20 are red balls and the rest are green
balls. If a ball is chosen at random from the bag, find the probability that it is a green
ball.
Solution
Total number of possible outcomes = 60
Number of favourable outcomes = 60 – 20 = 40
40
∴ P(green ball) =
60
2
=
3
Example: 5N is a 2-digit number, where N is an integer from 0 to 9 inclusive. Find
the probability that the 2-digit number is a multiple of 3.
Solution
Total number of possible outcomes = 10 They are 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58 and 59.

Number of favourable outcomes = 3 They are 51, 54 and 57.

3
∴ P(a multiple of 3) =
10

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Example: In throwing a fair dice, find the probabilities of getting
(a) a ‘5’,
(b) a number less than 5,
(c) a number greater than 3,
(d) an even number,
(e) a prime number.

Solution
(a) Total number of possible outcomes = 6
Number of favourable outcomes = 1
𝟏
∴ P(a ‘5’) =
𝟔

(b) Total number of possible outcomes = 6

Number of favourable outcomes = 4 (Note: 1, 2, 3 and 4 are less than 5.)
𝟒
∴ P(a number less than 5) =
𝟔
𝟐
=
𝟑

(c) Total number of possible outcomes = 6

Number of favourable outcomes = 3 (Note: 4, 5 and 6 are greater than 3.)
𝟑
∴ P(a number greater than 3) =
𝟔
𝟏
=
𝟐

(d) Total number of possible outcomes = 6

Number of favourable outcomes = 3 (Note: 2, 4 and 6 are even numbers.)
𝟑
∴ P(an even number) =
𝟔
𝟏
=
𝟐

(e) Total number of possible outcomes = 6

Number of favourable outcomes = 3 (Note: 2, 3 and 5 are prime numbers.)
𝟑
∴ P(a prime number) =
𝟔
𝟏
=
𝟐

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Probabilities of Impossible Events and Certain Events

Example: In throwing a fair dice, find the probability of obtaining a number greater
than 6.

Solution
Total number of possible outcomes = 6
Number of favourable outcomes to the event = 0
𝟎
∴ P(obtaining a number greater than 6) = = 0
𝟔

Note:
(i) On a dice, no number is greater than 6. Therefore, all possible outcomes are not
favourable outcomes.
(ii) The event of ‘getting a number greater than 6’ is an impossible event.

Example: In throwing a fair dice, find the probability of obtaining a number less than 7.

Solution
Total number of possible outcomes = 6
Number of favourable outcomes to the event = 6
𝟔
∴ P(obtaining a number less than 7) = = 1
𝟔

Note:
(i) On a dice, all numbers are less than 7. Therefore, all the possible outcomes are
favourable outcomes.
(ii) The event of ‘getting a number less than 7’ is a certain event.

From the above examples, we have:

1. The probability of an impossible event is 0, i.e. P(impossible event) = 0

2. The probability of certain event is 1, i.e. P(certain event) = 1

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In conclusion, the probability of an event must lie between 0 and 1 inclusive,
i.e. 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1

Degree of possibility of event E can be illustrated as follows.

Less likely More likely

to occur to occur

. . . probability
0 1 1
2
Impossible Certain

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1.3 Relative Frequency

When a fair coin is tossed, the outcomes ‘head’ and ‘tail’ are equally likely to occur.
By using the definition of probability,
𝐧𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐟𝐚𝐯𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝑬
i.e. P(E) = ,
𝐭𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐧𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬
𝟏 𝟏
we have P(head) = and P(tail) =
𝟐 𝟐

However, for some events, we cannot use the above method to find their
probabilities. For example,
(i) Getting a head when an unfair coin is tossed
(ii) Getting a ‘1’ when an unfair dice is thrown.
(iii) Throwing a paper cone on a table with the opening down.

In these situations, we may use relative frequency (相對頻數) to estimate the

probability of the event.

Relative frequency is the number of times an event occurs divided by the total
number of outcomes that took place in an experiment, known as the number of trials.

𝐧𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝑬 𝐨𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐬

Relative frequency of event E =
𝐭𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐧𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐥𝐬

In general, relative frequency may be treated as an estimation of the probability for

an event after statistical process or repeated trials.

Remarks:
(a) Relative frequency is used
(i) when probability is being estimated using the outcomes of an experiment (or
trial), or
(ii) when theoretical probability cannot be used.
For example, when an unfair dice is thrown, the probability of getting each number
𝟏
is no longer . To be able to calculate a probability to each number, an experiment
𝟔
would need to be conducted. From the experimental results, the relative frequency
could be calculated.
(b) The more times that an experiment is carried out, the more reliable the relative
frequency is as an estimate of the probability, i.e. will be closer to the theoretical
probability.
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Example: Suppose a coin is tossed 150 times and the results are recorded as follows:

Result Head Tail

Frequency 80 70
Estimate the probability of getting a head.

Solution
𝟖𝟎
Relative frequency of getting a head ≈
𝟏𝟓𝟎
𝟖
=
𝟏𝟓

𝟖
∴ The probability of getting a head is estimated to be .
𝟏𝟓

Example: Two coins are tossed 200 times and the results are recorded as follows:

Result 1 head and 1 tail 2 heads 2 tails

Frequency 106 46 48

(a) Estimate the probability of getting 2 heads.

(b) Estimate the probability of getting at least 1 head.
Solution
𝟒𝟔
(a) Relative frequency of getting 2 heads ≈
𝟐𝟎𝟎
𝟐𝟑
=
𝟏𝟎𝟎

𝟐𝟑
∴ The probability of getting 2 heads is estimated to be .
𝟏𝟎𝟎

(b) Total frequency of getting at least 1 head = 106 + 46 = 152

𝟏𝟓𝟐
Relative frequency of getting at least 1 head ≈
𝟐𝟎𝟎
𝟏𝟗
=
𝟐𝟓
𝟏𝟗
∴ The probability of getting at least 1 head is estimated to be .
𝟐𝟓

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Example: A bag contains m red balls and 34 yellow balls. If a ball is randomly drawn
17
from the bag, the probability of drawing a yellow ball is . Find the value of m.
32

Solution
17
∵ P(yellow ball) =
32

34 17
∴ =
m + 34 32
34  32 = 17( m + 34)
2  32 = m + 34
64 = m + 34
m = 30

Example: There are 150 students in S3. The number of girls is less than the number
of boys by 10. If a student is selected at random from the class, find the probability
that a boy is selected.
Solution
Let n be the number of boys.
Then, the number of girls is n − 10.
n + (n − 10) = 150
n + n − 10 = 150
2n − 10 = 150
2n = 150 + 10
2n = 160
n = 80
∴ There are 80 boys.
80
∴ P(a boy) =
150
8
=
15

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Example: There are 4 red balls and 6 black balls in a bag. If a ball is drawn at random
from the bag, find the probability that it is
(a) a red ball
(b) a black ball
(c) a blue ball
(d) a coloured ball.

Solution
Total number of possible outcomes = 4 + 6 = 10
(a) Number of favourable outcomes = 4
4
P(red ball) =
10
2
=
5

(b) Number of favourable outcomes = 6

6
P(black ball) =
10
3
=
5

(c) There is no blue ball in the bag.

Number of favourable outcomes = 0
0
P(blue ball) =
10

=0
(d) All the balls in the bag are coloured.
Number of favourable outcomes = 10
10
P(coloured ball) =
10

=1

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Example: There are 4 red balls, 6 green balls and 12 black balls in a bag. If a ball is
drawn at random from the bag, find the probability that it is
(a) a red ball,
(b) neither a red ball nor a black ball.

Solution
Total number of possible outcomes = 4 + 6 + 12 = 22
(a) Number of favourable outcomes = 4
4
P(red ball) =
22
2
=
11

(b) Number of favourable outcomes = 6

P(neither a red ball nor a black ball)
=P(green ball)
6
=
22
3
=
11

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Example: The table below shows the numbers of months of pregnancy of 100
pregnant women.

Number of months 5 6 7 8 9

Number of pregnant women 20 24 26 16 14

If a pregnant woman is chosen at random, find the probabilities that she is pregnant
for
(a) 9 months,
(b) 5 or 6 months,
(c) less than 8 months,
(d) at most 9 months.

Solution
(a) P(9 months) = 14
100
7
=
50
20 + 24
(b) P(5 or 6 months) =
100
44
=
100
11
=
25
20 + 24 + 26
(c) P(less than 8 months) =
100
70
=
100
7
=
10
100
(d) P(at most 9 months) =
100
=1

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2. More about Probability

As discussed in the previous section, when we calculate the probability of an event,

we need to know all the possible outcomes of the activity. However, for some
complicated cases, it is difficult to list all possible outcomes, and we may miss some
of them or repeat some of them. In such situations, we can list all the possible
outcomes by using a tree diagram (樹形圖) or by using a table (表列法). This will
help us count all the possible outcomes.

2.1 Listing All Possible Outcomes by Using a Tree Diagram

It is a visual method of recording all the possible outcomes of an event with multiple
steps. You can use the tree diagram to find the probability of any outcome occurring.

Events can only be recorded by using a tree diagram if:

(i) they have 2 or more steps (in Example 2.1A below, they have 2 steps, and in
Example 2.1B below, they have 3 steps).
(ii) they have a fixed starting value (such as the fixed number of balls in a box).

In a tree diagram, each outcome is displayed as a branch of the tree, spreading

horizontally across the page.

Remarks
It is possible to have 3 or more steps in a tree diagram by adding more sets of
branches. However, in such case, the tree diagram would quickly become large and
cumbersome.

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Demonstration

In a restaurant, a dinner set includes a main course and a bowl of soup. The
restaurant offers the following choices.
Dinner Set
Main course: choose one from Soup: choose one from
A. Fried rice 1. Cola
B. Chicken Tomato Pasta 2. Tea
C. Fried Noodles with Pork 3. Coffee

We can list all the combinations

dinner set by a tree diagram

Main course Soup Combination

1 .......... Al Fried rice and cola

A 2 ........... A2 Fried rice and tea
3 ........... A3 Fried rice and coffee

1 ............. B1 Chicken Tomato Pasta and cola

B 2 ............ B2 Chicken Tomato Pasta and tea
3 ............ B3 Chicken Tomato Pasta and coffee

1 ............. C1 Fried Noodles with Pork and cola

C 2 ........... C2 Fried Noodles with Pork and tea
3 .............. C3 Fried Noodles with Pork and coffee

A tree diagram in probability is a diagram that is used to shows all the possible
outcomes of two or more events.

From the above tree diagram, we can easily see that there are 9 possible
combinations. Thus, drawing a tree diagram helps us list out all possible outcomes
systematically.

If we assume that both main course and the soup are randomly chosen from the
menu, then each of these 9 combinations listed in the tree diagram is an equally
𝟏
likely outcome, and each of them will be chosen with a probability of .
𝟗

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Note: The term 'randomly' here means that each main course and each soup have an
equal chance of being chosen from the three main course and the three soup
respectively.

Example 2.1A: There are 2 babies born today. Assume that the probabilities of a new
born baby being a boy and a girl are equal. Find the probability of each of the
following events.
(a) Two babies are boys.
(b) One baby is a boy and one baby is a girl.
Solution
Let B stand for a boy and G stand for a girl.
1st baby 2nd baby Possible Outcomes

B .......... BB
B
G .......... BG

B .......... GB
G
G .......... GG

Total number of possible outcomes = 4

(a) Number of favourable outcomes = 1 The favourable outcome is BB.
𝟏
P(2 boys) =
𝟒

(b) Number of favourable outcomes = 2 The favourable outcomes are BG and GB.

𝟐 𝟏
P(1 boy and 1 girl) = =
𝟒 𝟐
Note: BG and GB are two different outcomes. Thus, there are 4 equally likely outcomes (BB, BG,
GB and GG), but not 3.

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Example 2.1B: Mr Chan has 3 children. Find the probability that exactly 2 of the
children are boys.

Solution
Let B stand for a boy and G stand for a girl.
1 st child 2 nd child 3rd child Possible Outcomes
B .......... BBB
B

B G .......... BBG

B .......... BGB
G
G .......... BGG

B .......... GBB
B .
G .......... GBG
G
B .......... GGB
G
G .......... GGG

From the tree diagram, there are 8 equally likely outcomes.

There are 3 favourable outcomes, i.e. BBG, BGB and GBB.
3
∴ P(exactly 2 boys) =
8

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Example 2.1C: Tony tosses two fair coins. Let H stand for a head and T stand for a
tail.
(a) List all the possible outcomes by a tree diagram.
(b) Find the probability that Tony gets two heads.

Solution
(a)
1st coin 2nd coin Possible Outcomes

H .......... HH
H
T .......... HT

H .......... TH
T
T .......... TT

(b) From the tree diagram, there are 4 possible outcomes,

i.e. HH, HT, TH and TT.
There is only 1 favourable outcome, i.e. HH.
1
∴ P(two heads) =
4

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Example 2.1D: In Peter’s pocket, he has three balls which are red, black and yellow
in colour. In Ken’s pocket, he also has three balls which are green, red and black in
colour. Each of them randomly takes out a ball from his own pocket. Let R stand for
a red ball, B stand for a black ball, Y stand for a yellow ball and G stand for a green
ball.
(a) List all the possible outcomes by a tree diagram.
(b) Find the probability that they take out same colours of ball.
(c) Find the probability that 1 yellow ball and 1 green ball are taken out.
(d) Find the probability that 1 red ball and 1 black ball are taken out.
(e) Find the probability that 1 yellow ball and 1 non-yellow ball are taken out.

Solution
(a)
Peter’s ball Ken’s ball Possible Outcomes

G .......... RG
R R .......... RR
B .......... RB

G .......... BG
B R .......... BR
B .......... BB

G .......... YG
Y R .......... YR
B .......... YB

(b) From the tree diagram, there are 9 possible outcomes,

There are 2 favourable outcomes, i.e. RR and BB.
2
∴ P(same colours of ball) =
9

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(c) From the tree diagram, there are 9 possible outcomes,
There is 1 favourable outcome, i.e. YG.
1
∴ P(1 yellow ball and 1 green ball) =
9

(d) From the tree diagram, there are 9 possible outcomes,

There are 2 favourable outcomes, i.e. RB and BR.
2
∴ P(1 red ball and 1 black ball) =
9

(e) From the tree diagram, there are 9 possible outcomes,

There are 3 favourable outcomes, i.e. YG, YR and YB.
3
∴ P(1 yellow ball and 1 non-yellow ball) =
9
1
=
3

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2.2 Listing All Possible Outcomes by Using a Table

It is a visual method of showing the possible results of two events. One event's
outcomes are displayed vertically (first column), and the other's displayed
horizontally (first row). For example, the first column would be each number shown
in 1st dice, and the first row would be each number shown in 2nd dice. Then we
simply fill in the table with the possible outcomes. Each box in the table represents
one possible combined outcome The table can then be used to find the probability of
each possible outcome occurring.

Consider the above example 2.1A again. Besides using a tree diagram, we can also
use a table to list all the possible outcomes as follows:

Using a tree diagram Using a table

1st baby 2nd baby Possible
Outcomes

B .......... BB
B 2nd baby
G .......... BG
1st baby

B G
B BB BG
B .......... GB G GB GG
G
G .......... GG

From the above table, we can count that there are 4 possible outcomes.

Page 26 of 58
For activities that have a large number of possible outcomes, it is complicated to list
all the possible outcomes by using a tree diagram. In such case, we may list all the
possible outcomes by using a table. For example, when two fair dice are thrown, we
can list all the possible outcomes in a table as follows.

2nd dice
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)
2 (2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)
1st dice

3 (3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)

4 (4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)
5 (5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)
6 (6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)

However, if an activity involves 3 steps (i.e. the1st child, the 2nd child and 3rd child
in the above example 2.1B), we cannot list all the possible outcomes by using a
table.

Page 27 of 58
Example: Tony tosses a fair coin and throws a fair dice.
(a) List all the possible outcomes in a table.
(b) Find the probabilities of getting
(i) a head and an odd number,
(ii) a tail and a number smaller than 5,
(iii) a head and a prime number.

Solution
(a) Let H stand for a head and T stand for a tail.
Dice
1 2 3 4 5 6
H H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6
Coin

T T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6

(b) From the table, there are 12 possible outcomes.

(i) There are 3 favourable outcomes: H1, H3 and H5
3
∴ P(a head and an odd number) =
12
1
=
4
(ii) There are 4 favourable outcomes: T1, T2, T3 and T4

∴ 4
P(a tail and a number smaller than 5) =
12
1
=
3

(iii) There are 3 favourable outcomes: H2, H3 and H5

3
∴ P(a head and a prime number) =
12
1
=
4
ad a number smaller th

Page 28 of 58
Example: A bag contains1 red ball (R), 1 black ball (B) and 1 yellow ball (Y). Two
balls are drawn one by one at random from the bag.
(a) If the balls are drawn with replacement,
(i) list all the possible outcomes in a table,
(ii) find the probability that 1 red ball and 1 black ball are drawn.

(b) If the balls are drawn without replacement,

(i) list all the possible outcomes in a table,
(ii) find the probability that 1 red ball and 1 black ball are drawn.

Solution
(a) (i)
2nd ball
R B Y
R RR RB RY
1st ball

B BR BB BY
Y YR YB YY

(ii) From the table, there are 9 possible outcomes.

There are 2 favourable outcomes: RB and BR
2
∴ P(1 red ball and 1 black ball ) =
9

(b) (i)
2nd ball
R B Y
R RB RY
1st ball

B BR BY
Y YR YB

(ii) From the table, there are 6 possible outcomes.

There are 2 favourable outcomes: RB and BR
2
∴ P(1 red ball and 1 black ball ) =
6
1
=
3

Page 29 of 58
3. Expected Value

3.1 Expected Number of Occurrences

In tossing a fair coin, the chances of getting a ‘head’ and a ‘tail’ are equally likely.
Therefore, when a fair coin is tossed 100 times, it is equally likely to get a head and a
tail each time. We expect that heads and tails each will occur nearly (100 x ½) times,
i.e. 50 times.

In throwing a fair dice, the chances of getting ‘1’ , ‘2’ , ‘3’ , ‘4’, ‘5’ and ‘6’ are
equally likely. Therefore, when a fair dice is thrown 600 times, we expect that each
number from 1 to 6 will occur nearly (600 x 1/6) times, i.e. 100 times.

In general, if the probability of an event is p, then the expected number of

occurrences of the event in n trials is np.

Example: A fair coin is tossed 500 times. Find the expected number of times of
getting a tail.

Solution
1
Expected number of times of getting a tail = 500 x
2

= 250

Example: A fair dice is thrown 150 times. Find the expected number of times of
getting
(i) a ‘2’, (ii) a ‘3’ or a ‘4’.

Solution
1
(i) P(getting a ‘2’) =
6
1
Expected number of times of getting a ‘2’ = 150 x = 25
6
1+1 1
(ii) P(getting a ‘3’ or a ‘4’) = =
6 3
1
Expected number of times of getting a ‘3’ or a ‘4’ = 150 x = 50
3

Page 30 of 58
3.2 Expected Value

In a test, there are 20 multiple-choice questions. In each question, there are four
options, and only one of them is correct. 4 marks will be obtained for each correct
answer and 1 mark will be deducted for each wrong answer There will not be any
mark for not answering.

Correct answer Wrong answer Not answering

Score 4 -1 0

Tony does not know the answers to all the questions. Should he choose the answers
randomly or just skip all the questions?

Assume Tony answer each question randomly.

∵ There are four options in each question.
𝟏
∴ P(getting a correct answer) =
𝟒
𝟏
Expected number of correct answers = 20 × =5
𝟒

𝟏 𝟑
P(getting a wrong answer) =1- =
𝟒 𝟒
𝟑
Expected number of wrong answers = 20 × =15
𝟒

Total score that Tony is expected to obtain in the test (i.e. expected mark)
= 4×5 + (-1) × 15
= 20 - 15
=5
However, if Tony skips all the questions and does not answer any question, he will
gets 0 mark.
∵ 5>0
∴ Tony should choose the answers randomly.

In addition, Tony chooses all the answers randomly, the expected marks of each
𝟓
question = = 0.25
𝟐𝟎

The value 0.25 is called the expected value (期望值) of the marks obtained by
choosing the answers to all questions randomly.

Page 31 of 58
For the above example, the expected value of the marks obtained for each question
can also be calculated as follows:

𝟏
Let 𝒑𝟏 = probability of getting a correct answer =
𝟒
𝒂𝟏 = marks obtained for a correct answer = 4
𝟑
𝒑𝟐 = probability of getting a wrong answer =
𝟒
𝒂𝟐 = marks obtained for a wrong answer = -1

Expected value of marks obtained for each question

= expected mark of getting a correct answer + expected mark of getting a wrong answer
= 𝒂𝟏 𝒑𝟏 + 𝒂𝟐 𝒑𝟐
𝟏 𝟑
= 𝟒 × + (-1) ×
𝟒 𝟒

= 1 – 0.75
= 0.25 The number of questions does NOT
affect this value.

In general, consider an activity with n possible outcomes, and the values obtained
from the possible outcomes are 𝒙𝟏 , 𝒙𝟐 , 𝒙𝟑 , ..., 𝒙𝒏 respectively.
If the probabilities of the occurrence of these possible outcomes are 𝒑𝟏 , 𝒑𝟐, 𝒑𝟑 ,
... , 𝒑𝒏 respectively, then the expected value of the activity is calculated by
𝒙𝟏 𝒑𝟏 + 𝒙𝟐 𝒑𝟐 + 𝒙𝟑 𝒑𝟑 + ... + 𝒙𝒏 𝒑𝒏 .

Expected values can help us make decision, for example,

(i) it can be used by trading firms to determine the expected profit or loss from some
investment,
(ii) it can be used by agricultural companies to determine the expected amount of
rain that will fall during a given season.
(iii) it can be used by gamblers to determine how much they could potentially win at
a certain game.

The expected value of a variable can be interpreted as the average value of the
variable obtained in repeated trials.
For the above example, on average, the marks which Tony is expected to obtain for
𝟒×𝟓+(−𝟏)×𝟏𝟓 𝟓
each question = = = 0.25.
𝟐𝟎 𝟐𝟎

Page 32 of 58
Example: A bag contains four $10 notes, four $50 notes and two $100 notes. If a
note is drawn from the bag randomly, find the expected value of the note obtained.

Solution
Possible outcome $10 note $50 note $100 note
Number of notes 4 4 2
Probability 𝟒 𝟐 𝟒 𝟐 𝟐 𝟏
= = =
𝟒+𝟒+𝟐 𝟓 𝟒+𝟒+𝟐 𝟓 𝟒+𝟒+𝟐 𝟓

∴ The expected value of the note obtained.

𝟐 𝟐 𝟏
= 10× + 50× + 100×
𝟓 𝟓 𝟓
= $44

Example: A fair dice is thrown once. What is the expected value of the number
obtained?

Solution
The possible numbers obtained by throwing the dice are 1, 2 3, 4, 5, 6.
𝟏
The probability for each number to occur is .
𝟔
Therefore, the expected value of the number obtained
𝟏 𝟏 𝟏 𝟏 𝟏 𝟏
=1× + 2× + 3× + 4× + 5× + 6×
𝟔 𝟔 𝟔 𝟔 𝟔 𝟔
= 3.5

Note:
(i) The expected value 3.5 means that if the dice is thrown repeatedly, the average of
the numbers obtained in all throws will get closer to 3.5.
(ii) the mean of the data (1, 2 3, 4, 5, 6) is also 3.50, i.e. (1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 ) / 6 =
3.5.
(iii) An expected value represents what can be expected over many trials of the
experiment. It does not necessarily have to be a possible value from the data set.

Page 33 of 58
Example: In a test, there are 20 multiple-choice questions. In each question, there are
four options, and only one of them is correct. 4 marks will be obtained for each
correct answer and 1 mark will be deducted for each wrong answer. Peter answers all
the questions randomly.
(a) How many questions is Peter expected to answer correctly?
(b) How many questions is Peter expected to answer wrongly?
(c) Find Peter’s expected value of the marks for the test.

Solution
1
(a) Probability that Peter answers a question correctly =
4

∵ There are 20 questions.

∴ Number of questions that Peter is expected to answer correctly
1
= 20 x
4

=5
3
(b) Probability that Peter answers a question wrongly =
4

∵ There are 20 questions.

∴ Number of questions that Peter is expected to answer wrongly
3
= 20 x
4

= 15

(c) Peter’s expected value of the marks

= 4×5 + (-1) × 15
=5

Page 34 of 58
Part 2: Quiz (1)

1. If a letter is chosen at random from the word ‘PREFECT’, find the probabilities of
getting
(a) a ‘T’, (b) an ‘E’,
(c) a ‘P’ or a ‘R’, (d) a ‘D’,
(e) a vowel.

Solution
There are 7 letters in the word ‘PREFECT’.
(a) ∵ Among the 7 letters, there is 1 letter ‘T’.
1
∴ P(getting a ‘T’) =
7

(b) ∵ Among the 7 letters, there are 2 letters ‘E’.

2
∴ P(getting an ‘E’) =
7

(c) ∵ Among the 7 letters, there are 1 letter ‘P’ and 1 letter ‘R’.
2
∴ P(getting a ‘P’ or a ‘R’) =
7

(d) ∵ Among the 7 letters, none of the letters is ‘D’.

0
∴ P(getting an ‘D’) =
7
=0
(e) ∵ Among the 7 letters, there are 2 vowels (i.e. 2 ‘E’s)
2
∴ P(getting a vowel) =
7

Note: The letter A, E, I, O, U are vowels.

Page 35 of 58
2. A fair dice is thrown. Find the probabilities of getting
(a) the number ‘3’ or ‘4’, (b) an odd number,
(c) a number equal to 0, (d) a number less than 8,
(e) an odd number smaller than 5, (f) an even number or a number smaller than 3.

Solution
Total number of possible outcomes = 6
(a) Number of favourable outcomes = 2
𝟐
∴ P(‘3’ or ‘4’ ) =
𝟔
𝟏
=
𝟑

(b) Number of favourable outcomes = 3 (Note: 1, 3 and 5 are odd numbers)

𝟑
∴ P( an odd number) =
𝟔
𝟏
=
𝟐

(c) Number of favourable outcomes = 0

𝟎
∴ P(equal to 0) =
𝟔

=0
(d) Number of favourable outcomes = 6
𝟔
∴ P(less than 8) =
𝟔

=1
(e) Number of favourable outcomes = 2
(Note: 1 and 3 are odd numbers smaller than 5)
𝟐
∴ P(an odd number smaller than 5 ) =
𝟔
𝟏
=
𝟑

(f) Number of favourable outcomes = 4

(Note: Favourable outcomes: 1, 2, 4, 6)
𝟒
∴ P(an even number or a number smaller than 4) =
𝟔
𝟐
=
𝟑

Page 36 of 58
3. An integer is chosen at random from 1 to 20 inclusively. Find the probabilities of
getting
(a) an even number, (b) a prime number,
(c) an integer greater than 10 but less than 15, (d) a multiple of 5,
(e) between 3 and 19 inclusive, (f) a common multiple of 3 and 4.

Solution
(a) ∵ Among the 20 integers, 10 of them are even numbers.
10
∴ P(an even number) =
20
1
=
2
(b) ∵ Among the 20 integers, 8 of them are prime numbers, i.e. 2, 3, 5, 7, 11,
13, 17 and 19.
8
∴ P(a prime number) =
20
2
=
5

(c) ∵ Among the 20 integers, 4 of them are greater than 10 but less than 15, i.e.
11, 12, 13, 14.
4
∴ P(greater than 10 but less than 15) =
20
1
=
5
(d) ∵ Among the 20 integers, 4 of them are multiples of 5, i.e. 5, 10, 15 and 20.
4
∴ P(multiple of 5) =
20
1
=
5
(e) ∵ Among the 20 integers, 17 of them are between 3 and 19 inclusive.
17
∴ P(between 3 and 19 inclusive) =
20
(f) ∵ Among the 20 integers, only one integer is the common multiple of 3
and 4, i.e. 12.
1
∴ P(common multiple of 3 and 4) =
20
Page 37 of 58
4. A card is drawn at random from a pack of 52 playing cards. Find the probabilities
of getting
(a) a ‘5’, (b) a Queen, (c) a red card,
(d) an Ace, (e) a face card, (f) a red face card,
(g) an Ace or a face card.

Solution
(a) ∵ There are 4 ‘5’s in a pack of 52 playing cards.
4
∴ =
P(a ‘5’) 52
1
=
13
(b) ∵ There are 4 Queens in a pack of 52 playing cards.
4
∴ P(a Queen) =
52
1
=
13
(c) ∵ There are 26 red cards (i.e. 13 hearts and13 diamonds) in a pack of 52
playing cards.
26
∴ P(a red card) =
52
1
=
2
(d) ∵ There are 4 Aces in a pack of 52 playing cards.
4
∴ P(an Ace) =
52
1
=
13
(e) ∵ There are 12 face cards in a pack of 52 playing cards.
12
∴ P(a face card) =
52
3
=
13

Page 38 of 58
(f) ∵ There are 6 red face cards in a deck of 52 playing cards
6
∴ P(a red face card) =
52
3
=
26

(g) ∵ There are 4 Aces and 12 face cards in a deck of 52 playing cards.
4 + 12
∴ P(an Ace or a face card) =
52
16
=
52
4
=
13

Page 39 of 58
Part 2: Quiz (2)

1. The table shows the numbers of S3 students who wear glasses or do not wear
glasses.
Wearing glasses Without wearing glasses
Boys 38 58
Girls 32 72

A S3 student is chosen at random. Find the probabilities that the chosen student
(a) is a boy, (b) wears glasses,
(c) is a boy without wearing glasses, (d) is neither a boy nor wears glasses.

Solution
Total number of S3 students = 38 + 58 + 32 + 72 = 200
(a) Number of S3 students who are boys = 38 + 58 = 96
96
∴ P(a boy) =
200
12
=
25
(b) Number of S3 students who wear glasses = 38 + 32 = 70
70
∴ P(wear glasses) =
200
7
=
20

(c) Number of S3 students who are boys without wearing glasses = 58

58
∴ P(boys without wearing glasses) =
200
29
=
100
(d) Number of S3 students who are neither boys nor wear glasses = 72
72
∴ P(neither a boy nor wears glasses) =
200
9
=
25

Page 40 of 58
2. A card is drawn at random from a pack of 52 playing cards. Find the probabilities
of getting
(a) a number card, (b) the Ace of spades, (c) a Jack or a black card,
(d) a heart or an Ace, (e) an Ace or a ‘3’, (f) a red ‘4’ or a black ‘8’,
(g) a heart or a King, (h) neither a club nor a Jack.

Solution
(a) ∵ There are 36 number cards in a pack of 52 playing cards.
36
∴ P(a number card) =
52
9
=
13
(b) ∵ There is only one Ace of spades in a pack of 52 playing cards.
1
∴ P(Ace of spades) =
52
(c) ∵ There are 4 Jacks and 24 black cards (without counting the spade Jack
and club Jack twice) in a pack of 52 playing cards.
4 + 24
∴ P(a Jack or a black card) =
52
28
=
52
7
=
13

(d) ∵ There are 4 Aces and 12 hearts (without counting the heart Ace twice) in
a pack of 52 playing cards.
4 + 12
∴ P(a heart or an Ace) =
52
16
=
52
4
=
13

Page 41 of 58
(e) ∵ There are 4 Aces and 4 ‘3’s in a deck of 52 playing cards.
4+4
∴ P(an Ace or a ‘3’) =
52
8
=
52
2
=
13

(f) ∵ There are 2 red ‘4’s and 2 black ‘8’s in a deck of 52 playing cards.
2+2
∴ P(a red ‘4’ or a black ‘8’) =
52
4
=
52
1
=
13

(g) ∵ There are 13 hearts and 3 Kings (without counting the heart King twice)
in a pack of 52 playing cards.
13 + 3
∴ P(a heart or a King) =
52
16
=
52
4
=
13

(h) ∵ There are 13 clubs and 3 Jacks (without counting the club Jack twice)
in a pack of 52 playing cards.
Number of favourable outcomes = 52 – (13+3) = 36

36
∴ P(neither a club nor a Jack) =
52
9
=
13

Page 42 of 58
3. A bag contains 30 balls marked with the numbers 1 to 30 without repetition. A ball
is drawn at random from the bag. Find the probability of drawing a ball marked with
(a) an odd number,
(b) a prime number,
(c) a number less than 15 but greater than 10,
(d) a multiple of 5,
(e) a common multiple of 2 and 3.

Solution
(a) ∵ Among the 30 numbers, there are 15 odd numbers.
15
∴ P(an odd number) =
30
1
=
2

(b) ∵ Among the 30 numbers, there are 10 prime numbers, i.e. 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13,
17, 19 , 23 and 29.
10
∴ P(a prime number) =
30
1
=
3

(c) ∵ Among the 30 numbers, there are 4 numbers smaller than 15 but greater
than 10, i.e. 11, 12, 13 and 14.
4
∴ P(a number smaller than 15 but greater than 10) =
30
2
=
15

(d) ∵ Among the 30 numbers, there are 6 multiples of 5, i.e. 5, 10, 15, 20, 25
and 30.
6
∴ P(a multiple of 5) =
30
1
=
5

(e) ∵ Among the 30 numbers, there are 5 common multiples of 2 and 3.

5
∴ P(a common multiple of 2 and 3) =
30
1
=
6

Page 43 of 58
4. A dice is thrown 500 times and the results are recorded as follows:
Number 1 2 3 4 5 6

Frequency 74 82 88 84 78 94
Estimate the probabilities of getting
(a) a number ‘1’,
(b) the numbers ‘2’ or ‘3’,
(c) a number greater than 4,
(d) an odd number,
(e) a multiple of 2,
(f) a prime number.

Solution
74
(a) Relative frequency of getting a number ‘1’ ≈
500
𝟑𝟕
=
𝟐𝟓𝟎

𝟑𝟕
∴ The probability of getting a number ‘1’ is estimated to be .
𝟐𝟓𝟎

82+88
(b) Relative frequency of getting the numbers ‘2’ or ‘3’ ≈
500
𝟏𝟕𝟎
=
𝟓𝟎𝟎
𝟏𝟕
=
𝟓𝟎
𝟏𝟕
∴ The probability of getting the numbers ‘2’ or ‘3’ is estimated to be .
𝟓𝟎

(c) Relative frequency of getting a number greater than 4

= Relative frequency of getting the numbers ‘5’ or ‘6’
78+94
≈
500
𝟏𝟕𝟐
=
𝟓𝟎𝟎
𝟒𝟑
=
𝟏𝟐𝟓
𝟒𝟑
∴ The probability of getting a number greater than 4 is estimated to be .
𝟏𝟐𝟓

Page 44 of 58
(d) Relative frequency of getting an odd number
= Relative frequency of getting the numbers ‘1’, ‘3’ or ‘5’
74+88+78
≈
500
𝟐𝟒𝟎
=
𝟓𝟎𝟎
𝟏𝟐
=
𝟐𝟓
𝟏𝟐
∴ The probability of getting an odd number is estimated to be .
𝟐𝟓

(e) The required frequency of getting a multiple of 2

= Relative frequency of getting the numbers ‘2’, ‘4’ or ‘6’
82+84+94
≈
500
𝟐𝟔𝟎
=
𝟓𝟎𝟎
𝟏𝟑
=
𝟐𝟓
13
∴ The probability of getting a multiple of 2 is estimated to be .
25

(f) The required frequency of getting a prime number

= Relative frequency of getting the numbers ‘2’, ‘3’ or ‘5’
82+88+78
≈
500
𝟐𝟒𝟖
=
𝟓𝟎𝟎
𝟔𝟐
=
𝟏𝟐𝟓
62
∴ The probability of getting a prime number 2 is estimated to be .
125

Page 45 of 58
Part 2: Quiz (3)

1. Peter has a $10 banknote, a $20 banknote, and a $50 banknote in his pocket. Ken
has a $10 banknote and a $20 banknote in his pocket. Each of them randomly takes
out a banknote from his own pocket.
(a) List all the possible outcomes by a tree diagram.
(b) Find the probability that they take out banknotes of same values.
(c) Find the probability that they take out banknotes of different values.
(d) Find the probability that the total amount of banknotes taken out equal to $40.
(e) Find the probability that the total amount of banknotes taken out is not more
than $40.

Solution
(a)
Peter’s banknote Ken’s banknote Possible Outcomes

$10 .......... $10, $10

$10
$20 .......... $10, $20

$10 .......... $20, $10

$20
$20 .......... $20, $20

$10 .......... $50, $10

$50
$20 .......... $50, $20

(b) From the tree diagram, there are 6 possible outcomes.

There are 2 favourable outcomes, i.e. $10, $10 and $20, $20.
2
∴ P(banknotes of the same values) =
6
1
=
3

Page 46 of 58
(c) From the tree diagram, there are 6 possible outcomes.
There are 4 favourable outcomes, i.e. ‘$10, $20’, ‘$20, $10’, ‘$50, $10’
and ‘$50, $20’.
4
∴ P(banknotes of the different values) =
6
2
=
3

(d) From the tree diagram, there are 6 possible outcomes.

There is only 1 favourable outcome, i.e. ‘$20, $20’.
1
∴ P(amount equals $40) =
6

(e) From the tree diagram, there are 6 possible outcomes.

There are 4 favourable outcomes, i.e. ‘$10, $10’, ‘$10, $20’, ‘$20, $10’
and ‘$20, $20’.

4
∴ P(amount not more than $40) =
6
2
=
3

Page 47 of 58
2. John selects two numbers randomly from 1, 2 and 3 to form a 2-digit number. If
each number can only be selected once, find the probability that the 2-digit number
formed is
(a) a multiple of 2, (b) a prime number, (c) greater than or equal to 31.

Solution
Tens digit Units digit Possible Outcomes

2 .......... 12
1
3 .......... 13

1 .......... 21
2
3 .......... 23

1 .......... 31
3
2 .......... 32

From the tree diagram, there are 6 possible outcomes.

(a) There are 2 favourable outcomes, i.e. 12 and 32.

2
∴ P(a multiple of 2) =
6
1
=
3

(b) There are 3 favourable outcomes, i.e. 13, 23 and 31.

3
∴ P(a prime number) =
6
1
=
2

(c) There are 2 favourable outcomes, i.e. 31 and 33.

2
∴ P(greater than or equal to 31) =
6
1
=
3

Page 48 of 58
3. Bags M and N each contains 1 red ball (R), 1 black ball (B) and 1 yellow ball (Y).
A ball is drawn at random from each bag.
(a) List all the possible outcomes in a table.
(b) Find the probability that
(i) the two balls drawn are of the same colour,
(ii) 1 red ball and 1 black ball are drawn,
(iii) at least 1 yellow ball.

Solution
(a)
Bag N
R B Y
R RR RB RY
Bag M

B BR BB BY
Y YR YB YY

(b) From the table, there are 9 possible outcomes.

(i) There are 3 favourable outcomes: RR, BB and YY
3
∴ P(same colour) =
9
1
=
3
(ii) There are 2 favourable outcomes: RB and BR
2
∴ P(1 red ball and 1 black ball ) =9
(iii) There are 5 favourable outcomes: RY, BY,YR, YB and YY
5
∴ P(at least 1 yellow ball) =
9

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4. There are two bags M and N. Bag M contains 2 red balls and 1 black ball, while
bag N contains 1 red ball, 1 yellow ball and 1 black ball. Peter draws one ball at
random from each bag.
(a) List all the possible outcomes in a table.
(b) Find the probability that
(i) 2 red balls are drawn.
(ii) 1 red ball and 1 black ball are drawn,
(iii) at least 1 red ball.

Solution
(a) Let R1 and R2 stand for the 2 red balls in bag M, R3 stand for the red ball in
bag N, B1 stand for the black ball in the bag M, B2 stand for the black ball in bag N,
and Y stand for the yellow ball in bag N.

Bag N
R3 Y B2
R1 R1 R3 R1Y R1B2
Bag M

R2 R2 R3 R2Y R2B2
B1 B1R3 B1Y B1B2

(b) From the table, there are 9 possible outcomes.

(i) There are 2 favourable outcomes: R1R3 and R2R3
2
∴ P(2 red balls) =9
(ii) There are 3 favourable outcomes: R1B2, R2B2 and B1R3
3
∴ P(1 red ball and 1 black ball ) =9
1
=3
(iii) There are 7 favourable outcomes: R1 R3, R1Y, R1B2, R2 R3 , R2Y,
R2B2 and B1R3
7
∴ P(at least 1 red ball) =
9

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5. Two fair dice are thrown.
(a) List all the possible outcomes in a table.
(b) Find the probabilities that
(i) the two numbers are both odd,
(ii) the sum of the two numbers is equal to 8,
(iii) the difference between the two numbers is equal to 3,
(iv) the product of the two numbers is greater than 20,
(v) the sum of the two numbers is a multiple of 4.

Solution
(a)
2nd dice
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)
2 (2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)
1st dice

3 (3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)

4 (4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)
5 (5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)
6 (6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)

(b) From the table, there are 36 possible outcomes.

(i) There are 9 favourable outcomes: (1, 1), (3, 1), (5, 1), (1, 3), (3, 3),
(5, 3), (1, 5), (3, 5) and (5, 5)
9
∴ P(two numbers are both odd) = 36
1
=4
(ii) There are 5 favourable outcomes: (6, 2), (5, 3), (4, 4), (3, 5) and (2, 6)
5
∴ P(sum of the two numbers is equal to 8) = 36
(iii) There are 6 favourable outcomes: (4, 1), (5, 2), (6, 3), (1, 4), (2, 5)
and (3, 6)
6
∴ P(difference between the two numbers is equal to 3) =
36
1
=6

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 (iv) There are 6 favourable outcomes: (6, 4), (5, 5), (6, 5), (4, 6), (5, 6),
and (6, 6)
6
∴ P(product of the two numbers is greater than 20) =
36
1
=6
(v) There are 9 favourable outcomes: (3, 1), (2, 2), (1, 3), (6, 2), (5, 3),
(4, 4), (3, 5), (2, 6) and (6, 6)
9
∴ P(sum of the two numbers is a multiple of 4) =
36
1
=4

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Part 2: Quiz (4)

1. Two fair coins are tossed 200 times. Find the expected number of times of getting
two heads.

Solution
Let H stand for a head and T stand for a tail.
There are 4 possible outcomes: HH, HT, TH and TT
There is only 1 favourable outcome: HH
1
∴ P(two heads) =
4

∴ Expected number of times of getting two heads

1
= 200 x
4

= 50

2. Three fair coins are tossed 400 times. Find the expected number of times of
getting 2 heads and 1 tail.

Solution
Let H stand for a head and T stand for a tail.
There are 8 possible outcomes: HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH and TTT
There are 3 favourable outcomes: HHT, HTH and THH
3
∴ P(2 heads and 1 tail) =
8

∴ Expected number of times of getting 2 heads and 1 tail.

3
= 400 x
8

= 150

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3. Two dice are thrown 600 times. Find the expected number of times that the sum of
two numbers obtained is less than 5.
Solution
There are 36 possible outcomes.
There are 6 favourable outcomes: (1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (2, 1), (2, 2) and (3, 1)
6
∴ P(sum is less than 5) =
36
1
=
6

∴ Expected number of times that the sum of two numbers obtained is less than 5
1
= 600 x
6

= 100

4. There are 5 balls in a bag. The balls are marked with numbers 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25
respectively. If a ball is drawn from the bag at random, find the expected value of the
number shown on the ball.

Solution
There are 5 possible outcomes.
𝟏
The probability for each number to be drawn is .
𝟓
∴ Expected value of the number shown on the ball drawn
1 1 1 1 1
= 5  + 10  + 15  + 20  + 25 
5 5 5 5 5
= 15

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5. A test consists of 25 true-or-false questions. 4 marks will be awarded for a correct
answer and 1 mark will be deducted for a wrong answer. Tony answers all the
questions at random.
(a) Find the expected value of the marks for each question.
(b) Find the expected value of marks that Tony obtains in the test.
Solution
The following table lists all the possible answers, the corresponding marks and
corresponding probabilities for each question.
Answer Correct Wrong
Mark 4 -1
Probability 1 1
2 2

(a) Expected value of the marks for each question

1 1
= 4  + (−1) 
2 2
= 1.5
(b) Expected value of marks that Tony obtains in the test
= 1.5 x 25
= 37.5

6. There are 30 multiple-choice questions in a test. Each question has 4 options and
only 1 of them is correct. 5 marks will be awarded for a correct answer, 1 mark will
be deducted for a wrong answer. There will not be any mark for not answering.
Suppose Tony does not know the answers of all the questions. Should he choose the
answers randomly or just skip all the questions? Explain your answer.
Solution
If Tony chooses the answer randomly,
1 3
P(getting a correct answer) = , P(getting a wrong answer) =
4 4

Expected value of the marks Tony obtains if he chooses the answer randomly
1 3
=5x + (-1) x
4 4

= 0.5
However, if Tony skips all the questions and does not answer any question, he will
gets 0 mark.
∵ 0.5 > 0
∴ Tony should choose the answers randomly.
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Part 3: Challenging Questions (思考題)
(*=Level 1, **=Level 2, ***=Level 3)

**1. A box contains 8 red ball and 16 white balls. Tony takes out n white balls from
the box and put n red balls to the box. A ball is randomly drawn from the box, and the
5
probability of drawing a red ball is . Find the value of n.
8

**2. A box contains m white balls, n yellow balls and 10 red balls. A ball is randomly
drawn from the box, and the probability of drawing a red ball is 40%.
(a) When m=8, find the probability of drawing a white ball.
(b) If the probability of drawing a yellow ball randomly is twice that of drawing a
white ball, find the values of m and n.

**3. An integer is selected at random from 1 to 50 inclusive. Find the probabilities

that the chosen integer is
(a) (i) a multiple of 2,
(ii) a multiple of 6,
(iii) a multiple of 8,
(b) a multiple of 6 or a multiple of 8.
(c) a number divisible by both 6 and 8.

**4. A bag contains 2 black balls and 1 red ball. Two balls are drawn at random
from the bag without replacement. Find the probability that
(a) the two balls drawn are of the same colour,
(b) the two balls drawn are of different colours,
(c) the two balls drawn are at least 1 black ball.
(d) the first ball drawn is of black colour.

**5. Tony selects two numbers randomly from 1, 2 and 3 to form a 2-digit number. If
these numbers can be selected more than once, find the probability that the 2-digit
number formed is
(a) a multiple of 2, (b) a prime number,
(c) greater than or equal to 31. (d) divisible by 2 or 3.

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 **6. In a game, there is a bag containing 1 red ball, 10 blue balls and 89 green balls.
A player draws a ball at random from the bag. A prize will be given to the player
according to the table below.

Colour Red Blue Green

Prize $200 $20 $2

(a) Find the expected value of the prize that a player gets for playing the game once.
(b) If a player has to pay $6 to play the game once, is the game favourable to the
player? Explain your answer.

**7. There are 2 red balls and 2 green balls in a bag. Tony draws two balls at random
from the bag at the same time, find the probabilities that
(i) 2 red balls are drawn,
(ii) 1 red ball and 1 green ball are drawn.

**8. A bag contains four balls numbered 1, 2, 3 and 4. If two balls are drawn at
random from the bag at the same time, find the probabilities that
(i) the two numbers are both odd,
(ii) the sum of the two numbers is equal to 6,
(iii) the difference between the two numbers is equal to 3,
(iv) the product of the two numbers is greater than 10,
(v) the sum of the two numbers is a multiple of 4.

**9. (a) A fair dice is thrown one time. Find the probabilities of getting a number
which is equal to 6.
(b) A fair dice is thrown two times. Find the probabilities that the sum of the two
numbers obtained is equal to 9.
(c) A fair dice is thrown three times. Find the probabilities that the sum of the
three numbers obtained is equal to 15.

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**10. Peter and Tony are playing a game by tossing a fair coin 4 times. When 3
consecutive outcomes are the same, Peter wins. When 2 consecutive outcomes are the
same, Tony wins. In other cases, winning or losing is not counted. Is it a fair game?

***11. There are two restaurants A and B in a school. Three students (Ken, Peter, and
Tony) each randomly choose one of the restaurants to eat at.
(a) Find the probability that the three students eat at the same restaurant.
(b) Find the probability that at least one of the three students eats at the restaurant B.

***12. A box contains 1 red ball, 1 black ball and 1 green ball. Three balls are drawn
one by one at random from the box with replacement. Find the probability that 2 red
balls and 1 green ball are drawn.

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