EEE 5103

POWER SYSTEM ANALYSIS I

Dr. Lucas Mogaka

Email: [email protected]
EEE Department, Dedan Kimathi University of Technology.

6/29/2023
 Purpose
The aim of this course is to enable the student to perform load flow
computations and analyze the load flow results, perform an optimal
power flow for reactive power dispatching.
Learning outcomes
At the end of this course, the learner should be able to:
Apply load flow analysis to an electrical power network and
interpret the results of the analysis
Analyze a network under both balanced and unbalanced fault
conditions and interpret the results
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 Course Description
Power flow: basic considerations, formula of the system array, non-
linear algebraic equations
Gauss-seidel and Newton-Raphson methods
Simplification of the Newton-Raphson method: the fast decoupled
power flow
Computer simulation of large power systems; Stott-Alsac fast decoupled
algorithms
Load forecasting techniques for short-term planning
Prescribed text books
1. L. Soder & M. Gandhari, “ Power System Analysis, Part I”
2. Glenn W. Stagg, Ahmed H. El-Abiad (1968), Computer methods in
3 power system analysis, McGraw-Hill 6/29/2023
INTRODUCTION TO POWER SYSTEM ANALYSIS
Power system analysis is a subject in a branch of electrical
and electronics engineering for designing and analyzing
the whole power system which consists of various
components such as transformer, busbar, generator, circuit
breaker, transmission lines, etc.
The main objective of the power system analysis is to
check the system, whether it is delivering power properly
to the user with the proper voltage, frequency, etc. without
any fault condition or overload condition.
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Function of power system Analysis
Need to monitor the voltages at various buses,
real & reactive power flow between buses.
To design the circuit breakers
To plan future expansion of the existing system
Analyze system fault under different conditions
(3Φ fault, L-G, L-L, L-L-G faults.)
Study of small & large disturbances (sudden
changes in load)
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 Power Flow Analysis
A power flow study (load-flow study) is a steady-state
analysis whose target is to determine the voltages, currents,
and real and reactive power flows in a system under a given
load conditions.
The purpose of power flow studies is to plan ahead and
account for various hypothetical situations. For example, if a
transmission line is to be taken off line for maintenance, can
the remaining lines in the system handle the required loads
without exceeding their rated values.
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Importance of Power (load) flow studies
They are used in planning studies to determine if and
when specific elements will become overloaded.
Major investment decisions begin with reinforcement
strategies based on load-flow analysis.
It is used operating studies: maintenance plans can
proceed without undermining the security of the
system.

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Power/Load flow problem
At any bus there are four quantities of interest:
│V│, θ, P, and Q.
If any two of these quantities are specified, the
other two must not be specified otherwise we end
up with more unknowns than equations

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Formulation of the Bus Admittance Matrix
The first step in developing the mathematical
model describing the power flow in the network is
the formulation of the bus admittance matrix.
The bus admittance matrix is an n*n matrix (where
n is the number of buses in the system) constructed
from the admittances of the equivalent circuit
elements of the segments making up the power
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system.
Bus Admittance Matrix
Formulation of the bus admittance matrix follows two simple
rules:
1. The admittance of elements connected between node k and
reference is added to the (k, k) entry of the admittance
matrix
2. The admittance of elements connected between nodes j and k
is added to the (j, j) and (k, k) entries of the admittance
matrix.
The negative of the admittance is added to the (j, k) and (k, j)
entries of the admittance marix.
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Bus Admittance Matrix Formation
Consider a three bus transmission system below;

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Bus Admittance Matrix
The line impedances joining buses 1, 2 and 3 are denoted by
z z23 and z31 respectively.
12,

The corresponding line admittances are y12, y23 and y31

The total capacitive susceptances at the buses are represented
by y10, y20 and y30. Applying Kirchhoff's current law at each
bus:

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 IN MATRIX FORM WHERE

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 Convert The Impedances To Admittances

Example

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 Rearranging these equations yields

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In the above network, since there is no connection
between bus 1 and 4,Y14=Y41=0; similarly Y24=Y42=0
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The admittance matrix for the network is obtained by
inspection is as follows

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Exercise: Obtain the voltage at bus 2 for the
simple system shown in Fig below, using the Gauss–
Seidel method, if V1 = 1∠ 0 pu.
0

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 Exercise

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Gauss-Seidel Advantages/Disadvantages
 Advantages
Each iteration is relatively fast (computational order is
proportional to number of branches + number of buses in the
system
Relatively easy to program
 Disadvantages
Tends to converge relatively slowly, although this can be
improved with acceleration
Has tendency to miss solutions, particularly on large systems
Tends to diverge on cases with negative branch reactances
(common with compensated lines)
Need to program using complex numbers 44
 Newton-Raphson Power Flow
In the NR power flow we use Newton's method to
determine the voltage magnitude and angle at each bus in
the power system.
Because of its quadratic convergence, NR method is
mathematically superior to GS method
The number of iterations required to obtain a solution
is independent of the system size
For large power systems, the NR method is found to be
more efficient and practical.
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 NR formula derivation
The Taylor series expansion is written for each fi (x)
f1 (x) f1 ( x)
f1 (xˆ ) = f1 ( x) + x1 + x2 +
x1 x2
f1 (x)
xn + higher order terms
xn

f n (x) f n ( x)
f n (xˆ ) = f n ( x) + x1 + x2 +
x1 x2
f n (x)
xn + higher order terms
xn 48
This can be written more compactly in matrix form
 f1 (x) f1 (x) f1 (x) 
 x x2 xn 
 f1 (x)     x1 
1

 f (x)   f 2 (x) f 2 (x) f 2 (x)  

 x 
f (xˆ ) =  2  +  x1 x2 xn   2
    
 f ( x)   
 
 n   f (x) f n (x) f n (x)   x n
 n

 x1 x2 xn 
+ higher order terms
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 Jacobian Matrix
The n by n matrix of partial derivatives is known
as the Jacobian matrix, J (x)
 f1 (x) f1 (x) f1 ( x) 
 x x2 xn 
 1

 f 2 (x) f 2 (x) f 2 ( x) 
J (x) =  x1 x2 xn 
 
 
 f (x) f n (x) f n ( x) 
 n 
 x1 x2 xn 
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Example
 x1 
Solve for x =   such that f ( x) = 0 where
x2 
f1 (x) = 2 x12 + x22 − 8 = 0
f 2 ( x) = 2
x1 − 2
x2 + x1x2 − 4 = 0
First symbolically determine the Jacobian
 f1 (x) f1 ( x) 
 x x2 
J (x) =  
1

 f 2 (x) f 2 ( x) 
 x1 x2  51
  4 x1 2 x2 
J (x) =  
 2 x1 + x2 x1 − 2 x2 
Then
−1
 x1   4 x1 2 x2   f1 ( x) 
 x  = −  2 x + x x1 − 2 x2   f 2 ( x) 
 2  1 2
1
Arbitrarily guess x(0) = 
1
−1
1  4 2   −5  2.1
x (1)
=  −    =  
1  3 −1  −3 1.3  52
 −1
 2.1 8.40 2.60   2.51 1.8284 
x(2)
=  −    =  
1.3  5.50 −0.50  1.45  1.2122 
Each iteration we check f (x) to see if it is below our
specified tolerance 
0.1556 
f (x ) = 
(2)

0.0900 
If  = 0.2 then we would be done. Otherwise we'd
continue iterating.
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 Newton-Raphson Power Flow
In the Newton-Raphson power flow we use Newton's
method to determine the voltage magnitude and angle
at each bus in the power system.
We need to solve the power balance equations
n
Pi =  Vi Vk (Gik cosik + Bik sin ik ) = PGi − PDi
k =1
n
Qi =  Vi Vk (Gik sin ik − Bik cosik ) = QGi − QDi
k =1 54
Power Flow Variables
Assume the slack bus is the first bus (with a fixed
voltage angle/magnitude). We then need to determine
the voltage angle/magnitude at the other buses.
 2   P2 (x) − PG 2 + PD 2 
   
   
 n   Pn (x) − PGn + PDn 
x =   f ( x) = 
V2 Q2 (x) − QG 2 + QD 2 
   
   
   
 Vn   Qn (x) − QGn + QDn  55
Power Flow Jacobian Matrix
The most difficult part of the algorithm is determining
and inverting the n by n Jacobian matrix, J (x)
 f1 (x) f1 (x) f1 ( x) 
 x x2 xn 
 1

 f 2 (x) f 2 (x) f 2 ( x) 
J (x) =  x1 x2 xn 
 
 
 f (x) f n (x) f n ( x) 
 n 
 x1 x2 xn 
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 Power Flow Jacobian Matrix, cont’d
Jacobian elements are calculated by differentiating
each function, fi ( x), with respect to each variable.
For example, if fi (x) is the bus i real power equation
n
fi ( x) =  Vi Vk (Gik cosik + Bik sin ik ) − PGi + PDi
k =1

fi ( x) n

i
=  Vi Vk (−Gik sin ik + Bik cosik )
k =1
k i

fi ( x)
= Vi V j (Gik sin ik − Bik cosik ) ( j  i)
 j
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Example: For the two bus power system shown below, use
the NR power flow to determine the voltage magnitude and
angle at bus two. Assume that bus one is the slack and Sbase=
100 MVA

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Solution

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Example: Consider the two-bus example illustrated in the diagram.
Bus 1 is the slack bus. Given the impedance of the line, and given P
and Q at Bus 2, use Newton’s Method to find the voltage magnitude
and angle at Bus 2. Just go through the first iteration to find the
guess at the start of the second iteration. Assume a flat start.

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  Y-bus =[Y11 Y12]
 [Y21 Y22]

 Y11= y10+y12
 Y12=Y21=-y12
 Y22=y20+y21

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First, we simplify above equations by plugging in |V1| = 1, δ1 = 0, Bik =
10, Bii = −10, and Gik = Gii = 0. This gives us a simplified equation for
the real and reactive power injections at bus 2, in terms of our
estimated values of |V2| and δ2:

The mismatch between the real and reactive powers we’ve calculated with our
estimated |V2|, δ2 values, and the known true values of those real and reactive
powers. Note the injections are negative, so 3 and 1 are added. Our goal is to
find the roots of f(x). 65
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Exercise


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 Exercise

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 The matrix equation is separated into two decoupled
equations requiring considerably less time to solve.
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Example

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Example

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Example: Solve the power flow problem shown in Figure
below using fast-decoupled power flow technique. Perform
two iterations

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Load Forecasting
Electrical Load Forecasting is the estimation of the active load at
various load buses in advance by an industry or utility company
 Applications:
✓Energy purchasing and generation,
✓Load switching,
✓Contract evaluation, and
✓Infrastructure development.
 The load at a given hour is dependent not only on the load at the previous
hour, but also on the load at the same hour on the previous day, and on the
load at the same hour on a similar day in the previous week. 6/29/2023
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Reasons for load forecasting in power systems
For proper planning of the power system.
For proper planning of transmission and distribution facilities.
For proper power system operation.
For proper financing.
For proper manpower development.
For proper grid formation.
For proper electrical sales.

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 Classification of Electrical Load forecasting types

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Short term load forecasting
Spans the period from 1hr – 1wk
It is mainly utilized for power system operation studies,
losses reduction, voltage regulations, unit commitment &
maximizing the utility revenues in the deregulated
environment.
High forecasting accuracy & speed are the two most
important requirements of short-term load forecasting
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 Short term load forecasting methods
➢ Similar Day Lookup Approach
➢Regression Based Approach
➢Time Series Analysis
➢Artificial Neural Network
➢Expert System
➢Fuzzy logic
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Similar day look up approach
This is based on searching historical data of days of 1,2 or3
years having the similar characteristics to the day of forecast.
The characteristics include similar weather conditions,
similar day of the week or date.
The load of the similar day is considered as the forecast.
Instead of taking a single similar day, forecasting is done
through linear combinations or regression procedures by
taking several similar days.
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 Regression based approach
 Linear regression is a technique which examines the dependent
variable to specified independent variable.
 For electric load forecasting, regression methods are usually used to
model the relationship of load consumption and other factors such
as weather, day type, and customer class.
 In energy forecasting, the dependent variable is usually demand or
price of the electricity because it depends on production which also
depends on the independent variables.
 Independent variables are usually weather related, such as
temperature, humidity or wind speed.
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Time series analysis
-Reliable predictions can be achieved by modeling
patterns in a time series plot, and then
extrapolating those patterns to the future.
-Using historical data as input, time series analysis fits a
model according to seasonality and trend.
- Time series approaches are not widely used for energy
industry forecasting because they typically do not take into
account other key factors such as weather forecasts
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 Artificial Neural Networks
-ANNs are still at very early stage electronic models
based on the neural structure of the brain. We
know that the brain basically learns from the
experience.
-In a neural network, the basic processing element
is the neuron. These neurons get input from some
source, combine them, perform all necessary
operations and put the final results on the output.
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 - To use the ANN in electric load forecast problems, distribution engineers
should decide upon a number of basic variables, these variables include:
• Input variable to the ANN (load, temperature…etc)
• Number of classes (weekday, weekend, season…etc)
• What to forecast: hourly loads, next day peak load, next day total load
• Neural network structure (Feedforward, number of hidden layer, number
of neuron in the hidden layer…etc)
• Training method and stopping criterion
• Activation functions
• Size of the training data
• Size of the test data
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Expert systems
Expert systems incorporates rules and procedures used
by human experts in the field of interest into software
that is then able to automatically make forecasts without
human assistance.
The load forecast model is built using the knowledge about
the load forecast domain from an expert in the field.
This rule base is complemented by a parameter database
that varies from site to site.

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 Fuzzy logic
 Fuzzy logic is a generalization of the usual Boolean logic used for digital
circuit design. An input under Boolean logic takes on a truth value of “0”
or “1”.
 Under fuzzy logic an input has associated with it a certain qualitative
ranges. For instance a transformer load may be “low”, “medium” and
“high”.
 Fuzzy logic allows one to (logically) deduce outputs from fuzzy inputs. In
this sense fuzzy logic is one of a number of techniques for mapping inputs
to outputs (i.e. curve fitting).
 Among the advantages of fuzzy logic are the absence of a need for a
mathematical model mapping inputs to outputs and the absence of a need
for precise (or even noise free) inputs.

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 Statistical approaches
Statistical approaches usually require a
mathematical model that represents load as
function of different factors such as time,
weather, and customer class.
The two important categories of such mathematical
models are:
✓additive models {the sum of a number of components}
✓multiplicative models {the product of a number of factors}

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 An additive model that takes the form of predicting
load as the function of four components:
L = Ln + Lw + Ls + Lr,
where L is the total load, Ln represents the “normal”
part of the load, which is a set of standardized load
shapes for each “type” of day that has been identified as
occurring throughout the year, Lw represents the
weather sensitive part of the load, Ls is a special event
component that create a substantial deviation from the
usual load pattern, Lr is a completely random term,
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the noise. 6/29/2023
A multiplicative model may be of the form
L = Ln · Fw · Fs · Fr,
Ln is the normal (base) load and the correction
factors
Fw, Fs, and Fr are positive numbers that can
increase or decrease the overall load.
These corrections are based on current weather
(Fw), special events (Fs),and random fluctuation
(Fr). Factors such as electricity pricing (Fp) and
load growth (Fg) can also be included.
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 END
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