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Definitions: What Is A Probability ?

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20 views10 pages

Definitions: What Is A Probability ?

Uploaded by

magdyafshaa831
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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What is a probability ?

A probability is a measure of the likelihood that an event in the future will


happen. It will always be a number between 0 and 1.
A value near zero means the event is not likely to happen.

 The probability of certain event = 1


 The probability of an impossible event = 0

Definitions
There are three keywords are used in of probability :

 experiment : A process that leads to the occurrence of one and only one
of several possible observations

 outcome : A particular result of an experiment.

 event : A collection of one or more possible outcomes of an experiment.


For example : the rolling of a dice is an experiment , there are 6 possible
outcomes , that are 1,2,3,4,5, and 6 but there are many possible events

There are three ways of assigning probability:

1-Classical 2- Empirical 3- Subjective.

1- Classical Probability

m : Number of favorite outcomes .

n : Total number of possible outcomes .

example : consider an experiment of rolling a fair dice , what is probabilities of the


events :

(1) E : an Even number of appear face up .


(2) A : a face of more than 4 spots appear .
Solution
The possible outcomes are 6 cases (sample space ) S=(1,2,3,4,5,6) n=6
(1) Ther are 3 “favorable” outcomes for event E :

E=(2,4,6) m=3

(2) outcomes for event A : A=(5, 6) m=2


2 - Empirical Probability :

EX: on February (2003), the space shuttle Columbia exploded . it was the
second in 123 space missions for NASA.

What is the probability that a future mission is successfully completed ,


then :

3 - Subjective Probability

Subjective probability is a type of probability that renders results based


on an individual's opinion and perspective on a specific outcome or
occurrence. Instead of using mathematical calculations or historical
data, subjective probability uses personal experience and beliefs. It
involves a great deal of personal bias and is likely to differ from one
person to another.

1- Rules of Addition :

(a) The general rule of adhdition :

If two events A and B are not mutually exclusive :

P(A∪B) = P(A) +P(B) − P(A∩B)


Two event are mutually exclusive if the occurrence of one event prevent the
occurrence of the other event
Example : Given two events X and Y with probabilities of their
occurrence are respectively 0.3 and 0.4. The probability of the occurrence of
X and Y is 0.1, find the probability that X or Y occurs.

Solution :
The probabilities of X and Y are given as P(X) = 0.3

and P(Y) = 0.4 , The probability of both of them occurring is P(A∩B) = 0.1
we can use the Addition rule to find it,

. P(A∪B) = P(A)+P(B) − P(A∩B)

P(A∪B) = 0.3+ 0.4 – 0.1 = 0.6

(b) Special rule of adhdition :

If two events A and B are mutually exclusive :

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

This can be represented in a Venn diagram as:

P(A∪B) = P(A) +P(B)


Example :A dice is tossed twice and the outcomes are noted, find
the probability that the first outcome is 1 and, the second outcome is an
even number.

Solution

Note that 1 is not an even number, so the two events are disjoint in this case. The
reason being that the outcomes of an even number appearing does not overlap with
the outcome of 1 appearing on the first toss.

S={1, 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 } n=6
A={1}
B ={ 2 ,4 ,6 )

P(A∩B) = 0 , P(A∪B) = P(A) +P(B) =

2- Completment Rules
The Complement of an Event
The complement A′ of the event A consists of all elements of the sample space that
are not in A.
P(A) ′ = 1- P(A)

P(A∩B) ′ = 1- P(A∩B)

P(A∪B) ′ = 1- P(A∪B) = P(neither A nor B)

Example : the events A and B are mutually exclusive Suppose


P(A) = 0.3 and P(B) = 0.2
1- what is probability of A or B occurring ?
2- what is probability that neither A nor B will happen ?
Solution
1- P(AorB) =P(A∪B) = P(A) +P(B) =
2- P(neither A nor B) = P(A∪B) ′ = 1- P(A∪B)
= 1 – 0.5 = 0.5
Example : the probabilities of events A and B are 0.2 and 0.4
restively , the probability that both A and B occur is 0.15 ,
compute :(1) P(A) ′ (2) P(A∪B) (3) P(A∪B) ′ (4) P(A∩B) ′
Solution
(1) P(A) ′ = 1- P(A) = 1- 0.2 = 0.8
(2) P(A∪B) = P(A)+P(B) − P(A∩B)= 0.2+0.4-0.15 =0.45
(3) P(A∪B) ′ = 1- P(A∪B) = 1 – 0.45 = 0.55
(4) P(A∩B) ′ = 1- P(A∩B) = 1- 0.15 = 0.85
Example : Refer to the following table:

Second Event First Event Total

A1 A2 A3
B1 30 5 20 55
B2 10 15 20 45
Total 40 20 40 100

a. Determine P(A1).
b. Determine P(B2 and A1).
c. Determine P(B1 or A1)
d. Determine P(A1∪B1) ′ , P(A1∩B2) ′

Solution

a-
b- P(B2 and A1) = P(A1∩ B2)=
c- P(B1 or A1)= P(A1∪B1) = P(A1)+P(B1) − P(A1∩ B1)

d- P(A1∪B1) ′ = 1- P(A1∪B1) = 1 – 0.65 = 0.35


P(A1∩B2) ′ = 1- P(A1∩B2) = 1- 0.1 = 0.9
3- Rules of Multiplication :
a- Independence of two Events
(( two events A and B are Independence if the occurrence of each of them
has no effect on the probability of the occurrence of the other ))

The Joint probability is : P(A∩B) = P(A) . P(B)

b- dependence of two Events


(( two events A and B are dependence if the occurrence of each of them has
effect on the probability of the occurrence of the other ))

The Joint probability is :

P(A∩B) = P(A) . P(B/A)


or: P(A∩B) = P(B) . P(A/B)
where P(A|B).: probability of A given B , is called the conditional
probability

4- The Conditional Probability

and
Example : Suppose we have a bowl contains 3 white balls and 7 black A ball
is selected at random and put a side , then a second ball is selected , consider
the following events :

W1 : the first ball is white . , W2 : the second ball is white .


B1 : the first ball is black . , B2 : the second ball is black .
Determine : P(W1∩ W2) , P(B1∩ B2)

Solution
1- P(W1∩ W2) = P(W1) . P(W2/ W1)
( )( )

P(B1∩ B2) = P(B1) . P(B2/ B1)

( )( )

Example :

Suppose P(A)= 0.4 , P(B/A)= 0.3 what is the Joint probability of A and B?

Solution
P(A∩B) = P(A) . P(B/A)
= (0.4) (0.3) = 0.12

Example : Refer to the following table:


Second Event First Event Total

A1 A2
B1 15 20 35
B2 40 25 65
Total 55 45 100

1. Determine P(A1). 2. Determine: P(B1 ∩ A1) , P(A1 ∩ A2)


3. Determine : P(B1 ∪A1) , P(A1 ∪ A2)
4. Determine : P(A1∩B1) ′ , P(A1∩B2) ′
5. are the events A1 and B1 mutually exclusive ? explain .
6. are the events A1 and B1 independent? Explain
7. Determine P(A1/ B1) , P(B1/ B2)

Solution

1-
2- P(A1∩ B1)=

P(A1 ∩ A2) = 0 , mutually exclusive events

3- P(A1∪B1) = P(A1)+P(B1) − P(A1∩ B1)

4- P(A1∪B1) ′ = 1- P(A1∪B1) = 1 – 0.65 = 0.35


P(A1∩B2) ′ = 1- P(A1∩B2) = 1- 0.1 = 0.9
5. are the events A1 and B1 mutually exclusive ? explain .
⸪ P(A1∩ B1) ≠ 0

⸫ A1 and B1 are mutually exclusive

6. are the events A1 and B1 independent? Explain


P(A1∩ B1) = 0.15

, P(A1) . P(B1) =
( )( )

⸪ P(A1∩ B1) ≠ P(A1) . P(B1)

⸫ A1 and B1 are dependent events


7. Determine P(A1/ B1) , P(B1/ B2)

B1 and B2 independent events

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