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HW1

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12 views4 pages

HW1

Uploaded by

林冠廷
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Problem 1.

Let A and B be two sets.


(a) Show that
    
Ac  Ac  B  Ac  Bc , Bc  A  Bc  Ac  Bc  
(b) Show that
P(B)  P(B  A)  P(B  Ac )
(c) Show that

     
c
A  B   Ac  B  Ac  B c  A  B c
(d) Consider rolling a fair six-sided die. Let A be the set of
outcomes where the roll is an odd number. Let B be the set
of outcomes where the roll is less than 3.
Calculate the sets on both sides of the equality in part (c)
and verify that the equality holds.

Problem 2.
The following problem is a non-transitive dice problem.
There have three dices as following.
Red: 3 3 3 3 3 6; Green: 1 4 4 4 4 4; White: 2 2 2 5 5 5.
Answer the following questions:
(a) Find the probability that red beats white, the probability
that white beats green and the probability that green beats
red, respectively.
(b) Can you line the dice up in order from best to worst?
(Hint: this is why these are called ‘non-transitive’.)
(c) Suppose you roll two white dice against two red dice.
What is the probability that the sum of the white dice is
greater than the sum of the red dice?

Problem 3.
A park has N raccoons of which eight were previously captured and
tagged. Suppose that 20 raccoons are captured. Find the probability
that four of these are found to be tagged. Denote this probability,
which depends on N, by P(N). (a)Find the value of N that maximizes
this probability. (b) Explain why N must be greater than 24.
(The question may require you to write a program for calculations.)
Problem 4.
Two properties are given by de Morgan’s laws which state that
 c  c
 S    S ,  S    S c
c
 n n  n
n  n n  n
n

(a) Prove the above two equations. (Hint: use the method in
P.5 of the textbook)
c
(b) Use De Morgan’s law to simplify ([0,1]  [2, 3]) .

(c) Simplify  [5,
n 1
7  (3n )1
].

(d) Simplify  [0, n ].
n 1
Problem 5.
The "Monty Hall problem" is a famous probability puzzle named after
the host of the television game show "Let's Make a Deal," Monty Hall.
Here's a description of the problem:

‧ You are a contestant on a game show and are presented with three
doors. Behind one of the doors is a car (the prize you want), and
behind the other two doors are goats.
‧ You choose one of the doors, but the door is not opened
immediately.
‧ The host, Monty Hall, who knows what is behind each door, opens
one of the other two doors, revealing a goat.
‧ Now, there are two doors left – the one you initially chose and the
one remaining unopened door.
‧ Monty gives you the option to either stick with your original choice
or switch to the other unopened door.

(a) What should you do to maximize your chances of winning


the car? (Stick with your initial choice, switch doors, or
does it not matter?)
(b) Explain the choice you made in (a).
Problem 6.
Randomly divide a stick into three pieces and its length is equal to
1m. Please find the probability that a triangle can be shaped by this
stick.

Problem 7.
A source transmits a message (a string of symbols) through a noisy
communication channel. Each symbol is 0 or 1 with probability p and
1-p, and is received incorrectly with probability 0 and 1, respectively
(Fig. 1). Errors in different symbol transmission are independent.

(a) What is the probability that k-th symbol is received


correctly?
(b) What is the probability that the string of symbols 1001 is
received correctly?
(c) In an effort to improve reliability, each symbol is
transmitted three times, and the received string is decoded
by majority rule. In other words, a 0 (or 1) is transmitted as
000 (or 111, respectively), and it is decoded at the receiver
as a 0 (or1) if and only if the received three-symbol string
contains at least two 0s (or 1s, respectively). What is the
probability that a 0 is correctly decoded?
(d) For what values of 0 is there an improvement in the
probability of correct decoding of a 0 when the scheme of
part (c) is used?
(e) Suppose that the scheme of part (c) is used. What is the
probability that a symbol was 1 given that the string is 001?
Problem 8.
Show that events A and B are independent if P[A|B] = P[A|BC].

Problem 9.
The university buys workstations from two different suppliers, Mini
Micros (MM) and Highest Technology (HT). On delivery, 10% of
MM’s workstations are defective, while 20% of HT’s workstations are
defective. The university buys 140 MM workstations and 60 HT
workstations for its computer lab. Suppose you walk into the
computer lab and randomly sit down at a workstation.

(a) What is the probability that your workstation is from MM?


From HT?
(b) What is the probability that your workstation is defective?
(c) Given that your workstation is defective, what is the
probability that it came from Mini Micros?

Problem 10.
In a city with one hundred taxis, 1 is blue and 99 are green. A witness
observes a hit-and-run by a taxi at night and recalls that the taxi was
blue, so the police arrest the blue taxi driver who was on duty that
night. The driver proclaims his innocence and hires you to defend him
in court. You hire a scientist to test the witness’ ability to distinguish
blue and green taxis under conditions like the night of accident. The
data suggests that the witness sees blue cars as blue 99% of the time
and green cars as blue 2% of the time.
Write a speech for the jury to give them reasonable doubt about
your client’s guilt. Your speech need not be longer than the statement
of this question. Keep in mind that most jurors have not taken this
course, so an illustrative table may be easier for them to understand
than fancy formulas.

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