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Chapter 8
Risk and Rates of Return
Learning Objectives
◆ Explain the difference between stand-alone risk and risk in a portfolio context.
◆ Discuss the difference between diversifiable risk and market risk, and explain how each type of risk
affects well-diversified investors.
◆ Describe what the CAPM is and illustrate how it can be used to estimate a stock’s required rate of
return.
◆ Discuss how changes in the general stock and bond markets could lead to changes in the required
rate of return on a firm’s stock.
◆ Discuss how changes in a firm’s operations might lead to changes in the required rate of return on
the firm’s stock.
Risk analysis is an important topic, but it is difficult to teach at the introductory level. We just try to give
students an intuitive overview of how risk can be defined and measured, and leave a technical treatment
to advanced courses. Our primary goals are to be sure students understand (1) that investment risk is
the uncertainty about returns on an asset, (2) the concept of portfolio risk, and (3) the effects of risk on
required rates of return.
What we cover, and the way we cover it, can be seen by scanning the slides and Integrated Case
solution for Chapter 8, which appears at the end of this chapter’s solutions. For other suggestions about
the lecture, please see the “Lecture Suggestions” in Chapter 2, where we describe how we conduct our
classes.
8-1 a. No, it is not riskless. The portfolio would be free of default risk and liquidity risk, but inflation
could erode the portfolio’s purchasing power. If the actual inflation rate is greater than that
expected, interest rates in general will rise to incorporate a larger inflation premium (IP)
and—as we saw in Chapter 6—the value of the portfolio would decline.
b. No, you would be subject to reinvestment risk. You might expect to “roll over” the Treasury
bills at a constant (or even increasing) rate of interest, but if interest rates fall, your
investment income will decrease.
c. A U.S. government-backed bond that provided interest with constant purchasing power (that
is, an indexed bond) would be close to riskless. The U.S. Treasury currently issues indexed
bonds.
b. The probability distribution for total uncertainty is the X-axis from - to +.
8-3 a. The expected return on a life insurance policy is calculated just as for a common stock. Each
outcome is multiplied by its probability of occurrence, and then these products are summed.
For example, suppose a 1-year term policy pays $10,000 at death, and the probability of the
policyholder’s death in that year is 2%. Then, there is a 98% probability of zero return and a
2% probability of $10,000:
Expected return = 0.98($0) + 0.02($10,000) = $200.
This expected return could be compared to the premium paid. Generally, the premium
will be larger because of sales and administrative costs, and insurance company profits,
indicating a negative expected rate of return on the investment in the policy.
b. There is a perfect negative correlation between the returns on the life insurance policy and
the returns on the policyholder’s human capital. In fact, these events (death and future
lifetime earnings capacity) are mutually exclusive.
c. People are generally risk averse. Therefore, they are willing to pay a premium to decrease
the uncertainty of their future cash flows. A life insurance policy guarantees an income (the
face value of the policy) to the policyholder’s beneficiaries when the policyholder’s future
earnings capacity drops to zero.
8-4 Yes, if the portfolio’s beta is equal to zero. In practice, however, it may be impossible to find
individual stocks that have a nonpositive beta. In this case it would also be impossible to have a
stock portfolio with a zero beta. Even if such a portfolio could be constructed, investors would
probably be better off just purchasing Treasury bills, or other zero beta investments.
8-5 Security A is less risky if held in a diversified portfolio because of its negative correlation with
other stocks. In a single-asset portfolio, Security A would be more risky because A > B and
CVA > CVB.
8-6 No. For a stock to have a negative beta, its returns would have to logically be expected to go up
in the future when other stocks’ returns were falling. Just because in one year the stock’s return
8-7 The risk premium on a high-beta stock would increase more than that on a low-beta stock.
RPj = Risk Premium for Stock j = (rM – rRF)bj.
If risk aversion increases, the slope of the SML will increase, and so will the market risk premium
(rM – rRF). The product (rM – rRF)bj is the risk premium of the jth stock. If bj is low (say, 0.5),
then the product will be small; RPj will increase by only half the increase in RPM. However, if bj is
large (say, 2.0), then its risk premium will rise by twice the increase in RP M.
8-8 According to the Security Market Line (SML) equation, an increase in beta will increase a
company’s expected return by an amount equal to the market risk premium times the change in
beta. For example, assume that the risk-free rate is 6%, and the market risk premium is 5%. If
the company’s beta doubles from 0.8 to 1.6 its expected return increases from 10% to 14%.
Therefore, in general, a company’s expected return will not double when its beta doubles.
8-9 a. A decrease in risk aversion will decrease the return an investor will require on stocks. Thus,
prices on stocks will increase because the cost of equity will decline.
b. With a decline in risk aversion, the risk premium will decline as compared to the historical
difference between returns on stocks and bonds.
c. The implication of using the SML equation with historical risk premiums (which would be
higher than the “current” risk premium) is that the CAPM estimated required return would
actually be higher than what would be reflected if the more current risk premium were used.
26.69%
CV = = 2.34.
11.40%
rM = 5% + (6%)1 = 11%.
r when b = 1.2 = ?
r = 5% + 6%(1.2) = 12.2%.
N
8-6 a. r̂ = Pr .
i =1
i i
N
b. = (r − r̂) P
i=1
i
2
i .
If Stock Y is less highly correlated with the market than X, then it might have a lower beta than
Stock X, and hence be less risky in a portfolio sense.
Alternative solution: First, calculate the return for each stock using the CAPM equation
[rRF + (rM – rRF)b], and then calculate the weighted average of these returns.
rR = 7% + 6%(1.50) = 16.0%
rS = 7% + 6%(0.75) = 11.5
4.5%
8-10 An index fund will have a beta of 1.0. If rM is 12.0% (given in the problem) and the risk-free rate is
5%, you can calculate the market risk premium (RPM) calculated as rM – rRF as follows:
r = rRF + (RPM)b
12.0% = 5% + (RPM)1.0
7.0% = RPM.
Now, you can use the RPM, the rRF, and the two stocks’ betas to calculate their required returns.
Bradford:
rB = rRF + (RPM)b
= 5% + (7.0%)1.45
= 5% + 10.15%
= 15.15%.
Farley:
rF = rRF + (RPM)b
= 5% + (7.0%)0.85
= 5% + 5.95%
= 10.95%.
r = 6% + (6.5%)1.7 = 17.05%.
c. 1. rM increases to 16%:
ri = rRF + (rM – rRF)bi = 9% + (16% – 9%)1.3 = 18.1%.
2. rM decreases to 13%:
ri = rRF + (rM – rRF)bi = 9% + (13% – 9%)1.3 = 14.2%.
c. rQ = 5.5% + 4.375%(1.2)
rQ = 10.75%.
d. Since the returns on the 3 stocks included in Portfolio Q are not perfectly positively correlated,
one would expect the standard deviation of the portfolio to be less than 15%.
$142,500 $7,500
8-14 Old portfolio beta = (b) + (1.00)
$150,000 $150,000
1.12 = 0.95b + 0.05
1.07 = 0.95b
1.1263 = b.
Alternative solutions:
1. Old portfolio beta = 1.12 = (0.05)b1 + (0.05)b2 + ... + (0.05)b20
1.12 = ( b i ) (0.05)
b i = 1.12/0.05 = 22.4.
8-16 Step 1: Determine the market risk premium from the CAPM:
0.12 = 0.0525 + (rM – rRF)1.25
(rM – rRF) = 0.054.
8-17 After additional investments are made, for the entire fund to have an expected return of 13%,
the portfolio must have a beta of 1.5455 as shown below:
13% = 4.5% + (5.5%)b
b = 1.5455.
Since the fund’s beta is a weighted average of the betas of all the individual investments, we can
calculate the required beta on the additional investment as follows:
($20,000,000)(1.5) $5,000,000X
1.5455 = +
$25,000,000 $25,000,000
1.5455 = 1.2 + 0.2X
0.3455 = 0.2X
X = 1.7275.
c. Risk averter.
2. $75,000/$500,000 = 15%.
5. The situation would be unchanged if the stocks’ returns were perfectly positively
correlated. Otherwise, the stock portfolio would have the same expected return as the
single stock (15%) but a lower standard deviation. If the correlation coefficient between
each pair of stocks was a negative one, the portfolio would be virtually riskless. Since
for stocks is generally in the range of +0.35, investing in a portfolio of stocks would
definitely be an improvement over investing in the single stock.
b. For diversified investors the relevant risk is measured by beta. Therefore, the stock with the
higher beta is more risky. Stock Y has the higher beta so it is more risky than Stock X.
c. rX = 6% + 5%(0.9)
= 10.5%.
rY = 6% + 5%(1.2)
= 12%.
Stock Y would be most attractive to a diversified investor since its expected return of 12.5% is
greater than its required return of 12%.
e. bp = ($7,500/$10,000)0.9 + ($2,500/$10,000)1.2
= 0.6750 + 0.30
= 0.9750.
rp = 6% + 5%(0.975)
= 10.875%.
f. If RPM increases from 5% to 6%, the stock with the highest beta will have the largest increase
in its required return. Therefore, Stock Y will have the greatest increase.
rY = 6% + 6%(1.2)
= 13.2%. Increase 12% to 13.2%.
e. A risk-averse investor would choose the portfolio over either Stock A or Stock B alone, since the
portfolio offers the same expected return but with less risk. This result occurs because returns
on A and B are not perfectly positively correlated (rAB = 0.88).
b. First, determine the fund’s beta, bF. The weights are the percentage of funds invested in each
stock:
A = $160/$500 = 0.32.
B = $120/$500 = 0.24.
C = $80/$500 = 0.16.
D = $80/$500 = 0.16.
E = $60/$500 = 0.12.
An expected return of 15% on the new stock is below the 16.5% required rate of return on an
investment with a risk of b = 1.5. Since rN = 16.5% > r̂N = 15%, the new stock should not be
purchased. The expected rate of return that would make the fund indifferent to purchasing the
stock is 16.5%.
Note to Instructors:
The solution to this problem is not provided to students at the back of their text. Instructors
can access the Excel file on the textbook’s website.
On a stand-alone basis, it would appear that Bartman is the most risky, Reynolds the least
risky.
Reynolds now looks most risky, because its risk per unit of return (CV) is the highest.
It is clear that Bartman moves with the market and Reynolds moves counter to the market.
So, Bartman has a positive beta and Reynolds a negative one.
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 0.18087 0.18087 2.51472 0.21097
Residual 3 0.21578 0.07193
Total 4 0.3966501
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept -0.02177 0.23276 -0.09354 0.93137 -0.76252 0.71898 -0.76252 0.71898
X Variable 1 1.53889 0.97043 1.58579 0.21097 -1.54945 4.62724 -1.54945 4.62724
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Reynolds’ calculations:
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.79735
R Square 0.63576 Reynolds' beta = -0.560
Adjusted R Square 0.51435
Standard Error 0.06769
Observations 5
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 0.02399 0.02399 5.23641 0.10612
Residual 3 0.01374 0.00458
Total 4 0.03774
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 0.14196 0.05874 2.41659 0.09446 -0.04499 0.32892 -0.04499 0.32892
X Variable 1 -0.56046 0.24492 -2.28832 0.10612 -1.33991 0.21899 -1.33991 0.21899
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Note that these betas are consistent with the scatter diagrams we constructed earlier.
Reynolds' beta suggests that it is less risky than average in a CAPM sense, whereas Bartman is
more risky than average.
Bartman:
Required return = 6.040% + 4.960% × 1.539
Required return = 13.673%
Reynolds:
Required return = 6.040% + 4.960% × -0.560
Required return = 3.260%
This suggests that Reynolds' stock is like an insurance policy that has a low expected return,
but it will pay off in the event of a market decline. Actually, it is hard to find negative-beta
stocks, so we would not be inclined to believe the Reynolds' data.
g. The beta of a portfolio is simply a weighted average of the betas of the stocks in the portfolio,
so this portfolio's beta would be:
h. Portfolio
Beta Weight
Bartman 1.539 25%
Stock A 0.769 15%
Stock B 0.985 40%
Stock C 1.423 20%
100%
Portfolio Beta = 1.179
8-23
Merrill Finch Inc.
Risk and Return
Assume that you recently graduated with a major in finance. You just landed a
job as a financial planner with Merrill Finch Inc., a large financial services
corporation. Your first assignment is to invest $100,000 for a client. Because the
funds are to be invested in a business at the end of 1 year, you have been
instructed to plan for a 1-year holding period. Further, your boss has restricted
you to the investment alternatives in the following table, shown with their
probabilities and associated outcomes. (For now, disregard the items at the
bottom of the data; you will fill in the blanks later.)
HEMEROCALLIS GRAMINEA.
Grass-leaved Day-Lily.
SPECIFIC CHARACTER.
IXIA PUSILLA.
SPECIFIC CHARACTER.
GERANIUM INCRASSATUM.
Fleshy-leaved Geranium.
SPECIFIC CHARACTER.
GERANIUM CILIATUM.
Fringed-leaved Geranium.
SPECIFIC CHARACTER.
1. The Empalement.
2. The Chives spread open, magnified.
3. The Pointal, magnified.
The singular shape and number of the leaves of this plant, which are but
two, large, concave, thickish, between lance and egg-shaped, and fringed at
the edge, constitute the most essential specific difference it possesses; the
flowers, and other parts, much resemble many of its fellows. It is from the
Cape of Good Hope, and introduced to us by Messrs. Colvills, nurserymen,
of the King’s Road, Chelsea; who received it, from thence, at the same time
with the Geranium incrassatum, of our last. For the treatment, and increase,
we must refer to any other of the tuberous kind of Geranium.
PLATE CCXLVIII.
PROTEA UMBELLATA.
Umbellated Protea.
SPECIFIC CHARACTER.
PITCAIRNIA SULPHUREA.
Sulphur-coloured Pitcairnia.
GENERIC CHARACTER.
SPECIFIC CHARACTER.