University of Gujrat – Hafiz Hayat Campus

Fall -2022 - Final

Modelling and Simulation
Question:1 :
Solve the following short questions:

1.Explain complex systems. List different applications of complex systems.

Ans :
• A system comprised of a (usually large) number of (usually strongly) interacting entities,
processes, or agents, the understanding of which requires the development, or the use of,
new scientific tools, nonlinear models, out-of equilibrium descriptions and computer
simulations.
• A system that can be analyzed into many components having relatively many relations
among them, so that the behavior of each component depends on the behavior of others.
• A system that involves numerous interacting agents whose aggregate behaviors are to be
understood. Such aggregate activity is nonlinear, hence it cannot simply be derived from
summation of individual components behavior.

Applications of complex systems are as follow :

1. Computational Biology.
2. Social Systems
3. Distributed Knowledge Systems.
4. Optimization.
5. Evolutionary Systems

2.Explain the benefits of modeling and simulation.

Ans :
Benefits of Modelling and simulation are as follow : (You can do any 5)
• Obtain a better understanding of the system by developing a mathematical model of a system of
interest, and observing the system's operation in detail over long periods of time.
• Test hypotheses about the system for feasibility.
• Compress time to observe certain phenomena over long periods or expand time to observe a
complex phenomenon in detail.
Identify bottlenecks in the flow of entities (material, people, etc.) or information.
• Use multiple performance metrics for analyzing system configurations.
• Employ a systems approach to problem solving.
• Develop well designed and robust systems and reduce system development time.
• Experiment with new or unknown situations about which only weak information is available.

4.Differentiate terminating and non-terminating simulations.

Ans :
Terminating Simulation :
• Runs for some duration of time TE where E is a specified event that stops
the simulation.
• Starts at time 0 under well-specified initial conditions.
• Ends at the stopping time TE
• Bank example: Opens at 8:30 am (time 0) with no customers present and 8
of the 11 teller working (initial conditions), and closes at 4:30 pm (Time TE =
480 minutes).
• The simulation analyst chooses to consider it a terminating system because
the object of interest is one day's operation
Non-terminating Simulations :
• Runs continuously, or at least over a very long period of time. Examples:
assembly lines that shut down infrequently, telephone systems, hospital
emergency rooms.
• Initial conditions defined by the analyst.
• Runs for some analyst-specified period of time TE .
• Study the steady-state (long-run) properties of the system, properties
that are not influenced by the initial conditions of the model.
• Whether a simulation is considered to be terminating or non-
terminating depends on both The objectives of the simulation study and
The nature of the system.
Q.5 Explain the goal of validation, also differentiate validation and verification
Ans :
The goal of the validation process is:

• To produce a model that represents true behavior closely enough for decision-making
purposes
• To increase the model’s credibility to an acceptable level
Validation is an integral part of model development

• Verification – building the model correctly (correctly implemented with the software)
• Validation – building the correct model (an accurate representation of the real system.

Question : 2 Explain how to design simulation experiment and how to perform analysis on
simulation.
How to Develop a Simulation Model :
Simulation models consist of the following components: system entities, input variables, performance
measures, and functional relationships. For instance in a simulation model of an M/M/1 queue, the
server and the queue are system entities, arrival rate and service rate are input variables, mean wait
time and maximum queue length are performance measures, and 'time in system = wait time + service
time' is an example of a functional relationship. Almost all simulation software packages provide
constructs to model each of the above components.

Simulation modeling comprises the following steps:

• Identify the problem: This involves clearly defining the problem that needs to be solved or the
system that needs to be analyzed.
• Formulate the problem: Once the problem has been defined, the next step is to formulate a
mathematical or conceptual model that represents the system and its behavior.
• Collect and process real system data: Data is needed to parameterize the model and validate its
accuracy. This involves collecting and analyzing data on the key variables and factors that affect the
system's behavior.
• Formulate and develop a model: This involves translating the model equations or algorithms into
code that can be executed on a computer.
• Validate the model: The model should be thoroughly tested and validated to ensure that it
accurately represents the system's behavior and meets the objectives of the analysis.
• Document the model for future use: This involves documenting the model and its assumptions,
equations, and input parameters for future reference.

How to design a simulation experiment

A simulation experiment is a test or a series of tests in which meaningful changes are made to the input
variables of a simulation model so that we may observe and identify the reasons for changes in the
performance measures. The number of experiments in a simulation study is greater than or equal to the
number of questions being asked about the model (e.g., Is there a significant difference between the
mean delay in communication networks A and B?, Which network has the least delay: A, B, or C? How
will a new routing algorithm affect the performance of network B?). Design of a simulation experiment
involves answering the question: what data need to be obtained, in what form, and how much?

The following steps illustrate the process of designing a simulation experiment.

• Select an appropriate experimental design: This involves selecting an experimental design that is
appropriate for the problem and the type of simulation being performed.
• Establish experimental conditions for runs: This involves setting up the simulation runs with
appropriate input parameters and initial conditions.
• Perform simulation runs: This involves executing the simulation runs and collecting output data.
• Interpret and present results: This involves analyzing the simulation output data and presenting the
results in a clear and concise manner.
• Recommend further course of action: Based on the simulation results, recommendations can be
made for further analysis, system design, or operational changes
Question 3 : Explain why modeler give priority to use agent based modeling instead of
discrete event modeling.
Ans :
The choice between agent-based modeling (ABM) and discrete event modeling (DEM) depends
on the nature of the problem being studied and the research question being asked. However,
there are several reasons why a modeler may give priority to using ABM over DEM:

• Flexibility: ABM allows for the modeling of complex systems with diverse and
heterogeneous agents that interact with each other and the environment, which may be
difficult to model with DEM.
• Realism: ABM can model the behavior of individual agents and their interactions,
making it more realistic and reflective of real-world scenarios.
• Emergent phenomena: ABM can capture emergent phenomena that arise from the
interactions of agents, which may not be possible with DEM.
• Dynamic environments: ABM is well-suited to modeling systems in which the
environment changes dynamically over time, such as in ecological or social systems.
• Uncertainty: ABM can be used to explore the effects of uncertainty and randomness in
systems, which is often difficult to model with DEM.
• Integration: ABM can be integrated with other modeling approaches, such as system
dynamics or network analysis, to provide a more comprehensive understanding of
complex systems.
• More versatile: ABM can be applied to a wide range of fields, from ecology to
economics to social science, whereas DEM is typically limited to more structured and
predictable systems.
Overall, ABM provides a more flexible and realistic approach to modeling complex systems with
diverse agents and dynamic environments, making it a useful tool for a wide range of
applications.
Question 4 : Explain the reasons for the classifications of the model. Also explain different
classifications of the model with appropriate examples .
Ans :

Reason For Model Classification

• Model Classifications Several classification categories for models exist. A system we are modeling
exhibits probabilistic or stochastic behavior if an element of chance exists. For example, the path of
a hurricane is probabilistic.
• In contrast, a behavior can be deterministic, such as the position of a falling object in a vacuum.
Similarly, models can be deterministic or probabilistic.
• A probabilistic or stochastic model exhibits random effects, while a deterministic model does not.
• The results of a deterministic model depend on the initial conditions; and in the case of computer
implementation with particular input, the output is the same for each program execution..

Figure Below is depicted the classification of different kinds of models.

1.Discrete-Event Simulation Model Sufficient modeling concepts have been defined so that a
discrete event simulation model can be defined as one in which the state variables change only at
those discrete points in time at which events occur. Events occur as a consequence of activity times
and delays. Entities may compete for system resources, possibly joining queues while waiting for an
available resource. Activity and delay times may "hold" entities for durations of time. A discrete-
event simulation model is conducted over time ("run") by a mechanism that moves simulated time
forward. The system state is updated at each event along with capturing and freeing of resources
that may occur at that time.
2. Stochastic and Deterministic Systems Definitions A system exhibits probabilistic or stochastic
behavior if an element of chance exists. Otherwise, it exhibits deterministic behavior. A probabilistic
or stochastic model exhibits random effects, while a deterministic model does not.

Deterministic: Randomness does not affect the behaviour of the system. The output of the system is
not a random variable. Stochastic: Randomness affects the behaviour of the system. The output of
the system is a random variable.

3. Static and Dynamic Simulations We can also classify models as static or dynamic. In a static
model, we do not consider time, so that the model is comparable to a snapshot or a map. For
example, a model of the weight of a salamander as being proportional to the cube of its length has
variables for weight and length, but not for time.

By contrast, in a dynamic model, time changes, so that such a model is comparable to an animated
cartoon or a movie. For example, the number of salamanders in an area undergoing development
changes with time; and, hence, a model of such a population is dynamic. Many of the models we
consider in this text are dynamic and employ a static component as part of the dynamic model.

Definitions A static model does not consider time, while a dynamic model changes with time.

Static: A simulation of a system at one specific time, or a simulation in which time is not a relevant
parameter for example, Monte Carlo & steady-state simulations.

Dynamic: A simulation representing a system evolving over time for examples, the majority of
simulation problems.

4. Discrete vs. Continuous Systems

Continuous: State variables change continuously as a function of time and generally analytical
method like deductive mathematical reasoning is used to define and solve the system. State
Variable (S.V.) = f (t)
Discrete: State variables change at discrete points in time and generally numerical method like
computational procedures is used to solve mathematical models.

State Variable (S.V.) = f(n t)

Question .5 Explain how a model can be compare with real system by applying high face
validity, assumptions and input-output transformations.
Ans : High Face Validity
The model should appear reasonable to model users and others who are knowledgeable about
the system. Especially important when it is impossible to collect data from the system

• Ensure a high degree of realism: Potential users should be involved in model construction
(from its conceptualization to its implementation).
• Sensitivity analysis can also be used to check a model’s face validity.
Example: In most queueing systems, if the arrival rate of customers were to increase, it would
be expected that server utilization, queue length and delays would tend to increase.
Validate Model Assumptions :
General classes of model assumptions:
• Structural assumptions: how the system operates.
• Data assumptions: reliability of data and its statistical analysis.
• Bank example: customer queueing and service facility in a bank.

• Structural assumptions, e.g., customer waiting in one line versus many lines, served FCFS
versus priority.
• Input data assumptions, e.g., interarrival time of customers, service times for commercial
accounts.
• Verify data reliability with bank managers.
• Test correlation and goodness of fit for data.
Validate Input-Output Transformation :
Goal: Validate the model’s ability to predict future behavior

• The only objective test of the model.

• The structure of the model should be accurate enough to make good predictions for the
range of input data sets of interest.
One possible approach: use historical data that have been reserved for validation purposes
only.
Criteria: use the main system responses of interest.