Probability

Definition probability,
Mutually exclusive events
SH
SADDAM HUSSEN S.Pd.,M.PD
Apersepsi
Experiment, outcome, simple space,
event, simple event

An experiment is a activity or process

which has observable result. For
example. Rolling a die is an
experiment.
The Possible results of an experiment
are called outcomes. The outcomes of
rolling a die once are 1,2,3,4,5 or 6.

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Experiment, outcome, simple space, event,
simple event

The set of all possible outcomes of

an experiments is called the sample
space for the experiment (Ruang
sampel)
The sample space for rolling a die
once is {1,2,3,4,5,6}.

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Experiment, outcome, simple space, event,
simple event

An event (titik sampel) is a subset of (or a

part of) a sample space. For example, the
event of an odd number being rolled on a die
is {1,3,5}

if the sample space of an experiment wit n

outcomes is S={e1,e2,..𝒆𝒏 } then the events
{e1},{e2},{e3},..{𝒆𝒏 } which consist of exactly
one outcome are called simple event

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 1. What is the
sample space for
the experiment of
tossing a coin?
Solution

• There are two possible

outcomes. Tossing
heads and tossing tails.
So the sample space is
{heads, tails}, or
simply*𝐻, 𝑇+
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 FR

2. Write the sample space for tossing a coin

three times!
Solution

• The sample space is

𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇

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 Definition FR
Union and intersection of events,
complement of an event
• The union of two events 𝐴 and 𝐵 is the
set of all outcomes which are in 𝐴
and/or 𝐵. It is denoted by 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵.

• The intersections of two events 𝐴 and 𝐵

is the set of all outcomes in both 𝐴 and
𝐵. It is denoted by 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵.

• The complement of an event 𝐴 is the set

of all outcomes in the sample space that
are not in the event 𝐴. It is denoted by
𝐴′ 𝑜𝑟 𝐴𝑐
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definition

Mutually exclusive events ( dua

kejadian saling lepas )
 FR
Mutually exclusive events
• Two events which cannot occur at the same time are called mutually exclusive
events. In other words, if two events have no outcomes in common then they are
mutually exclusive events.

A and B are mutually exclusive events

 FR
example
• Consider the sample space for rolling a die. The event that the number
rolled is even and the event that the number rolled is odd are two
mutually exclusive events, since 𝐸 = 2, 4, 6 and 𝑂 = *1, 3, 5+ have no
outcome in common.
Now we are ready to define the
concept of probability of an event

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 FR
Definition
• Probability of an event
Let 𝐸 be an event in a sample space 𝑆 in which all the outcomes are equally
𝑛 𝐸
likely to occur. The the probability of event 𝐸 is 𝑃 𝐸 = 𝑛(𝑆) , where 𝑛(𝐸) is
the number of outcomes in event 𝐸 and 𝑛(𝑆) is the number of outcomes in
the sample space 𝑆
 FR
Example
• A coin is tossed. What is the probability of obtaining a tail?

• Solution
The sample space for this moment is *𝐻, 𝑇+ and the event is *𝑇+,
so 𝑛 𝑆 = 2 and 𝑛 𝐸 = 1. So the desired probability is
𝑛 𝐸 1
𝑃 𝐸 = 𝑛(𝑆) = 2
 FR
Example
• I roll a die. What Is the probability that the number
rolled is odd?

• The sample space is 𝑆 = *1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6+ and the event that the number is
𝑛 𝐸 3 1
odd is 𝐸 = *1, 3, 5+. So the probability is 𝑃 𝐸 = 𝑛(𝑆) = 6 = 2
 FR
Example
• A coin is tossed three times. What is the probability of getting only one
head?

• Solution
The sample space is
𝑆 = *𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇+
And desired events is
𝐸 = 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻
3
So the probability is 𝑃 𝐸 =
8
 FR
remark
• Since the number of outcomes in an event is always less thanor
𝑛 𝐸
equal to the number of outcomes in the samle space, 𝑛 𝑠 is always
less than or equal to 1.
• Also, the smallest possible number of outcomes in an event is zero.
𝑛 𝐸 0
So the smallest possibe ratio is 𝑛(𝑆) = 𝑛 𝑆 = 0
• In conclusion, the probability of event always lies between 0 and 1.
i.e. 0 ≤ 𝑃 𝐸 ≤ 1
 FR

Example
• A child is throwing darts at the board
shown in the figure. The radii of the
circles on the bard are 3cm, 6cm and
9cm respectively. What is the probability
that the child’s dart lands in the red
circle, given that it hits the board?
 FR
Solution
• Luas lingkaran merah adalah 𝜋32 = 9𝜋𝑐𝑚2
• Luas lingkaran papan panah adalah 𝜋92 = 81𝜋𝑐𝑚2
• kita dapat mempertimbangkan masing-masing wilayah sebagai number of
outcomes in the related event.
𝑛 𝑟𝑒𝑑 9𝜋 1
• 𝑃 𝑟𝑒𝑑 = = =
𝑛 𝑏𝑜𝑎𝑟𝑑 81𝜋 9
 FR

• As the probability of an event gets closer to 1, the event is more

likely to occur. As it gets closer to zero, the event is less likely to
occur. in the previous example, the probability is close to zero so
1
the event is not very likely. However, note that 9 does not tell us
anything about what will actually happen as the child is throwing
the darts. The child will not necessarily hit the red circle once
every nin darts. He might hit it three times with nine darts or not
at all. But if the child playfor a long time and we looked at the
ratio of the red hits, to the other hits we would find that it is close
1
to 9 .
 FR
Certain event, impossible event
• An event whose probability is 1 is called a certain event. An event
whose probability is zero is called an impossible event
 FR
example
• A student rolls a die. What is the probability of each
event?
a. The number rolled is less than 8
b. The number rolled is 9
 FR
Example
• A card is drawn from a deck of 52 cards. What is the probability that the
card is a spade?
 FR
example
• A small child randomly presses all the switches in the circuit shown
opposite. What is the probability that the bulb lights?
 FR
example
• In a game, a player bets on number from 2 to 12 and rolls two dice. If
the sum of the spots on the dice is the number he guessed, he wins the
game. Which number would you advise the palyer to bet on? Why?
Solution
 Thank You.
SH
Saddam hussen S.Pd., M.Pd
Saddam hussen S.Pd., M.Pd

085732488000

[email protected]

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