BioScience, 2024, 0, 1–13

https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biae087
Advance access publication date: 0 2024
Special Report

The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times

on planet Earth

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William J. Ripple, Christopher Wolf , Jillian W. Gregg, Johan Rockström, Michael E. Mann, Naomi Oreskes, Timothy M. Lenton,
Stefan Rahmstorf, Thomas M. Newsome, Chi Xu, Jens-Christian Svenning , Cássio Cardoso Pereira , Beverly E. Law
and Thomas W. Crowther

William J. Ripple ([email protected]) and Beverly E. Law are affiliated with the Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society at Oregon State University
(OSU), in Corvallis, Oregon, in the United States. Christopher Wolf ([email protected]) and Jillian W. Gregg are affiliated with Terrestrial
Ecosystems Research Associates, in Corvallis, Oregon, in the United States. Johan Rockström and Stefan Rahmstorf are affiliated with the Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research (PIK) Member of the Leibniz Association, in Potsdam, Germany. Johan Rockström is also affiliated with the Institute of Environmental
Science and Geography at the University of Potsdam, in Potsdam, Germany. Michael E. Mann is affiliated with the Department of Earth and Environmental Science
at The University of Pennsylvania, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, in the United States. Naomi Oreskes is affiliated with the Department of the History of Science at
Harvard University, in Cambridge, Massachusetts, in the United States. Timothy M. Lenton is affiliated with the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter,
in Exeter, England, in the United Kingdom. Thomas M. Newsome is affiliated with the School of Life and Environmental Sciences at The University of Sydney, in
Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Chi Xu is affiliated with the School of Life Sciences at Nanjing University, in Nanjing, China. Jens-Christian Svenning is
affiliated with the Center for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere, in the Department of Biology at Aarhus University, in Aarhus, Denmark. Cássio Cardoso
Pereira is affiliated with the Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Thomas W. Crowther is affiliated with the Institute of Integrative Biology
at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, in Zurich, Switzerland. Co-lead authors William J. Ripple and Christopher Wolf contributed equally to the work.

We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster. This is a emissions, whereas land-use change, primarily deforestation,
global emergency beyond any doubt. Much of the very fabric of life accounts for approximately 10% (supplemental figure S2).
on Earth is imperiled. We are stepping into a critical and unpre- Our aim in the present article is to communicate directly
dictable new phase of the climate crisis. For many years, scientists, to researchers, policymakers, and the public. As scientists and
including a group of more than 15,000, have sounded the alarm academics, we feel it is our moral duty and that of our insti-
about the impending dangers of climate change driven by increas- tutions to alert humanity to the growing threats that we face
ing greenhouse gas emissions and ecosystem change (Ripple et al. as clearly as possible and to show leadership in addressing
2020). For half a century, global warming has been correctly pre- them. In this report, we analyze the latest trends in a wide
dicted even before it was observed—and not only by independent array of planetary vital signs. We also review notable recent
academic scientists but also by fossil fuel companies (Supran et al. climate-related disasters, spotlight important climate-related
2023). Despite these warnings, we are still moving in the wrong di- topics, and discuss needed policy interventions. This report is
rection; fossil fuel emissions have increased to an all-time high, part of our series of concise annual updates on the state of the
the 3 hottest days ever occurred in July of 2024 (Guterres 2024), climate.
and current policies have us on track for approximately 2.7 de-
grees Celsius (°C) peak warming by 2100 (UNEP 2023). Tragically,
we are failing to avoid serious impacts, and we can now only hope
Recent trends in planetary vital signs
to limit the extent of the damage. We are witnessing the grim re- In 2023, various historical temperature and ice extent records
ality of the forecasts as climate impacts escalate, bringing forth were broken by enormous margins (figure 1; Ripple et al. 2023a).
scenes of unprecedented disasters around the world and human Both global and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures were
and nonhuman suffering. We find ourselves amid an abrupt cli- far above their 1991–2024 averages for much of the year—a pat-
mate upheaval, a dire situation never before encountered in the tern that has continued well into 2024 (figure 1a, 1b). Although
annals of human existence. We have now brought the planet into Antarctic and global sea ice extent have now come into range of
climatic conditions never witnessed by us or our prehistoric rela- previous years, they remain well below their 1993–2024 averages
tives within our genus, Homo (supplemental figure S1; CenCO2PIP (figure 1c, 1d). Global daily mean temperatures were at record
Consortium et al. 2023). levels for nearly half of 2023 and much of 2024 (figure 1e). On
Last year, we witnessed record-breaking sea surface tempera- our current emissions trajectory, we may regularly surpass cur-
tures (Cheng et al. 2024), the hottest Northern Hemisphere ex- rent temperature records in future years (Matthews and Wynes
tratropical summer in 2000 years (Esper et al. 2024), and the 2022).
breaking of many other climate records (Ripple et al. 2023a). Of the 35 planetary vital signs we track annually (figures 2
Moreover, we will see much more extreme weather in the com- and 3), 25 are at record levels (supplemental table S1). The global
ing years (Masson-Delmotte et al. 2021). Human-caused carbon failure to support a rapid and socially just fossil fuel phasedown
dioxide emissions and other greenhouse gases are the primary has led to rapidly escalating climate-related impacts (table 1).
drivers of climate change. As of 2022, global fossil fuel combustion Below, we focus on variables that have either changed greatly or
and industrial processes account for approximately 90% of these are at record extremes.

Received: August 4, 2024. Accepted: August 13, 2024

© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Institute of Biological Sciences.
All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: [email protected]
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Figure 1. Unusual climate anomalies in 2023 and 2024. Ocean temperatures (a, b) are presently far outside their historical ranges. These anomalies
reflect the combined effect of long-term climate change and short-term variability. Sources and additional details about each variable are provided in
supplemental file S1. Each line corresponds to a different year, with darker gray representing later years. All of the variables shown are daily estimates.

The human enterprise Energy

Our graphical account illustrates how humanity’s collective size Fossil fuel consumption rose by 1.5% in 2023 relative to 2022
and consumption patterns continued to accelerate on multiple (figure 2h), mostly because of substantial increases in coal con-
fronts. Although fertility rates were down slightly to a record low sumption (1.6%) and oil consumption (2.5%; figure 2h). Renew-
in 2023, other variables set all-time record highs, including human able energy use also grew in 2023, with solar and wind consump-
population, ruminant livestock population, per capita meat pro- tion together rising 15% relative to 2022 (figure 2h). Much of this
duction, and gross domestic product (GDP; figure 2a–2e). Human growth can be attributed to the fact that renewable energy is of-
population and ruminant livestock population have been increas- ten cheaper than comparable new fossil fuel alternatives (Roser
ing at approximately 200,000 and 170,000 per day respectively. De- 2020). However, fossil fuel consumption remains roughly 14 times
coupling the growth in all of these variables with greenhouse gas greater than solar and wind energy consumption (figure 2h) and
emissions may be difficult (Ripple et al. 2024). recent growth in the renewable share of electricity generation
 Ripple et al. | 3

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Figure 2. Timeseries of climate-related human activities. The data obtained since the publication of Ripple and colleagues (2023a) are shown in red
(dark gray in black and white). In panel (f), tree cover loss does not account for forest gain and includes loss due to any cause. For panel (h),
hydroelectricity and nuclear energy are shown in supplemental figure S3. Sources and additional details about each variable are provided in
supplemental file S1.

mostly covered increased demand, instead of replacing fossil fuels Carter 2024). This type of climate carbon feedback process could
(REN21 2024). limit the success of some natural climate solutions. In 2023, there
was also a dramatic decline in the land carbon sink according
Forests to Ke and colleagues (https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2407.12447
Global tree cover loss rose from 22.8 megahectares (Mha) per year [preprint: not peer reviewed]). On a more positive note, the
in 2022 to 28.3 Mha per year in 2023, reaching its third-highest deforestation rate in the Brazilian Amazon continued to decline,
level (figure 2f); this was at least partly because of wildfires, dropping from 1.16 Mha in 2022 to 0.90 Mha in 2023 (figure 2g).
which caused tree cover loss to reach a record high of 11.9 Mha This decrease may be partly because of the shifting policies of
(figure 3n). High rates of tree cover loss can drive a set of related Brazil’s government (Vilani et al. 2023) and comes at a critical time
feedback loops, wherein the loss of forest carbon sequestration given that the Amazon may be nearing a tipping point where
leads to additional warming, which can drive further losses in a loss of resilience and positive feedback loops contribute to
carbon sequestration and so on (Ripple et al. 2023b, Goldman and large-scale forest dieback (Boulton et al. 2022, Flores et al. 2024).
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Figure 3. Timeseries of climate-related responses. The data obtained before and after the publication of Ripple and colleagues (2023a) are shown in
gray and red (dark gray in black and white), respectively. For area burned (m) and billion-dollar flood frequency (o) in the United States, the black
horizontal lines show changepoint model estimates, which allow for abrupt shifts (see the supplement). For other variables with relatively high
variability, local regression trendlines are shown in black. The variables were measured at various frequencies (e.g., annual, monthly, weekly). The
labels on the x-axis correspond to midpoints of years. Billion-dollar flood frequency (o) is influenced by exposure and vulnerability in addition to
climate change. Sources and additional details about each variable are provided in supplemental file S1.

Global greenhouse gases and temperature dioxide and methane are at record highs (figure 3a, 3b). Carbon
Annual energy-related emissions increased 2.1% in 2023, and are dioxide levels were recently observed to be surging (NOAA 2024).
now above 40 gigatons of carbon-dioxide-equivalent for the first Furthermore, the growth rate of methane emissions has been ac-
time (figure 2k). The top three emitting countries are China, the celerating, which is very troubling (Shindell et al. 2024). Nitrous
United States, and India, which, together, account for over half oxide is also at a record high (figure 3c); annual anthropogenic
of global emissions (supplemental table S2). Anthropogenic emis- emissions of this potent long-lived greenhouse gas have increased
sions of aerosol pollutants are declining; because these aerosols by roughly 40% from 1980 to 2020 (Tian et al. 2024).
have a net cooling effect, this reduction may be causing the rate Surface temperature is at a record high, and 2024 is expected
of global warming to accelerate (Hansen et al. 2023). On the ba- to be one of the hottest years ever recorded (figure 3d). Each 0.1°C
sis of global year-to-date averages, the concentrations of carbon of global warming places an extra 100 million people (or more)
 Ripple et al. | 5

Table 1. Recent climate disasters in November 2023 or later.

Timeframe Climate disaster

November 2023 Storm Bettina over Black Sea brought heavy snowfall and rainfall to several countries along the Black Sea,
affecting more than 2.5 million people and causing 23 fatalities. The burning of fossil fuels was responsible for
an approximately twofold increase in the likelihood of this level of precipitation (Zachariah et al. 2024a).
February 2024 Wildfires in Chile killed at least 131 people and destroyed more than 14,000 homes. Climate change may have
contributed to these fires by increasing the frequency and intensity of droughts and heatwaves, although other
factors may have been involved, including El Niño and the loss of natural forests.

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March–April 2024 Extreme heat affected a large portion of North Africa and the Sahel, potentially killing hundreds or thousands of
people. Heat waves of this magnitude likely could not have occurred in the absence of climate change (Barnes
et al. 2024a).
April 2024 Heavy rain led to flash floods in the Persian Gulf region, killing at least 33 people. Climate change probably
exacerbated this rainfall.
March–May 2024 Heavy rainfall in East Africa caused severe flooding that killed hundreds and affected more than 700,000 people.
This region has seen an increase in observed rainfall over the past 15 years that is at least partly attributable to
climate change (Kimutai et al. 2024).
April–May 2024 Many regions of Asia experienced devastating heatwaves, with approximately 1,500 heat stroke fatalities in
Myanmar alone (Pearce and Ware 2024). As part of the longest heat wave ever recorded in India, temperatures
reached 50°C in some areas and heat-related illnesses resulted in at least 60 deaths. Climate change is making
such heat waves more frequent and extreme in some parts of Asia (Zachariah et al. 2024b).
April–May 2024 Extensive flooding in southern Brazil devastated 478 cities, killed 173 people, and left 38 people missing, 806
injured, and 423,486 displaced. The estimated cost of the cleanup is US$3.7 billion (Malabarba et al. 2024). It
was estimated that climate change roughly doubled the likelihood of the extreme rainfall that caused these
floods (Clarke et al. 2024).
May 2024 A wind storm in Texas, United States killed 5 people and left more than 600,000 people without power. Climate
change may be making straight-line wind storms such as this one more frequent and intense.
May 2024 Severe Cyclonic Storm Remal killed at least 84 people in India and Bangladesh. Climate change has led to an
increase in the frequency and intensity of such severe storms.
May–June 2024 Mexico and nearby areas faced extreme heat; at least 125 people have died in Mexico because of heat-related
illnesses this year. Climate change is increasing the frequency of such extreme heat waves (Pinto et al. 2024).
June 2024 At least 1,170 pilgrims died in Saudi Arabia during an intense heat wave with temperatures reaching over 50 C.
Climate change is contributing to heat waves such as this one.
June 2024 Heavy rainfall in Bangladesh caused landslides that killed at least nine people and floods that left nearly 2 million
people stranded. Climate change has increased the intensity of floods in this region.
June 2024 Devastating wildfires burned roughly 440,000 hectares in the Brazilian Pantanal wetlands, threatening economic
activities and killing many wild animals. Climate change is estimated to have caused a 40% increase in the
intensity of the weather conditions that drove these wildfires (Barnes et al. 2024b).
July 2024 Hurricane Beryl was an exceptionally strong Atlantic hurricane that affected parts of the Caribbean, United
States, and Yucatán Peninsula; it killed 64 people and caused more than US$5 billion in damages. Climate
change may have contributed to Beryl rapidly intensifying and reaching Category 5 status despite occurring
relatively early in the hurricane season.
July 2024 A deadly heatwave in the Mediterranean resulted in at least 23 fatalities. It is highly likely that climate change
contributed to the extreme temperatures that were observed.
August 2024 Hurricane Debby was a slow-moving hurricane that caused extensive flooding in the Southeastern United States
and killed at least 10 people. Climate change has been linked to increasing hurricane rainfall and
intensification rates and may be involved in the slowing of U.S. hurricanes.

Note: We list numerous recent disasters that may be at least partly related to climate change. This list is not intended to be exhaustive. Because of the recent nature
of these events, our sources often include news media articles. For each event, we generally provide references indicating that the likelihood or strength of such an
event may have increased because of anthropogenic climate change. References to scientific articles are given directly in the table, and links to news articles are
provided in supplemental file S1. Some of these climate disasters may be at least partly related to changes in jet streams (Stendel et al. 2021, Rousi et al. 2022).

into unprecedented hot average temperatures (Lenton et al. 2023). Oceans and ice
On our current trajectory, future years will almost certainly be Ocean acidity and ocean heat content are both at record extremes
even hotter, because our climate continues to shift away from (figure 3f, 3g), which has led to various ocean-related climate im-
conditions associated with human thriving for much of Earth’s pacts. For example, heat waves in 2021 and 2023 caused ma-
population (Vecellio et al. 2023). Even in the most opti- rine animal mass mortality events (White et al. 2023, Goreau and
mistic scenarios, large-scale climate adaptation efforts will be Hayes 2024). In addition, the average global sea level is presently
needed, particularly for the most vulnerable populations (Ripple at a record high, mostly because of both overall warming and
et al. 2022). a strong El Niño in 2023 and part of 2024 (figure 3h; Lee 2024).
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Continued sea level rise has the potential to displace hundreds emergent threat in Arctic streams that turned orange because
of millions of people over the course of the century (Kulp and of increased iron and toxic metals (figure 5b). This discoloration
Strauss 2019). Melting continental ice contributes about half to began in the last decade, coinciding with rapid global warming
sea level rise (Horwath et al. 2021), and the latest data indicate and permafrost thaw (O’Donnell et al. 2024). Compared with clear
that Greenland’s ice mass, Antarctica’s ice mass, and the average streams, orange streams are more acidic, have higher turbidity,
glacier thickness are all at record lows (figure 3j–3l). and have elevated sulfate, iron, and trace metals. This discol-
oration correlates with declines in macroinvertebrate diversity
Climate impacts and extreme weather and fish abundance, affecting drinking water and subsistence
Climate-related extreme weather and disasters are contributing fisheries in rural Alaska (O’Donnell et al. 2024).

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greatly to human suffering (figure 4). Increasing heat and rainfall
extremes are now far outside the historical climate (Robinson Solar radiation modification research
et al. 2021). The rapid increase in average global temperatures SRM research, also known as solar geoengineering research, has
(figure 1e) has led to a massive rise in the incidence of heat been dramatically increasing in recent years (figure 5c). It in-
extremes (figure 3p). This is linked to many adverse human volves potentially risky techniques to reflect sunlight away from
outcomes, including direct mortality, increased healthcare costs, Earth to mitigate climate change effects. General categories of
mental health issues, and deaths from cardiorespiratory diseases SRM include atmospheric, terrestrial, and space-based applica-
(Ebi et al. 2021). Climate change has already contributed to billions tions (Keith 2020). Specific methods, for example, include injecting
of people facing extreme heat (Arrighi et al. 2024). Heat-related aerosols into the stratosphere or brightening marine clouds. The
mortality is rising rapidly in the United States (Figure 2i); the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded
number of heat-related deaths increased by 117% from 1999 to that stratospheric aerosol injection is the most-researched SRM
2023 (Howard et al. 2024). Last year, there were four billion-dollar method, but there are a number of environmental concerns (IPCC
floods in the United States (a tie for the record; figures 3o and 2018, Visioni et al. 2020). SRMs are also controversial because of
S4). Since the publication of our last report (Ripple et al. 2023a), potential unintended consequences and ethical concerns. Crit-
numerous other major climate-related disasters have occurred, ics argue that it is misguided and may disrupt weather patterns
including a series of heat waves across Asia that killed more and deter emissions reduction efforts (Whyte 2018). However, re-
than a thousand people and led to temperatures reaching 50°C in search continues to explore its feasibility and risks. SRM is of-
some parts of India (table 1). Because the Earth system is strongly ten seen as a temporary, potentially important solution to both
nonlinear, extreme weather and disaster rates can increase reduce warming and corresponding damages including for the
dramatically in response to global warming, including impacts on highly important and fast-warming subpolar regions (Smith et al.
plant and animal life (figure 3m, 3o and supplemental figures S4 2022). Research into solar geoengineering needs to focus on un-
and S5; Calvin 2019, Robinson et al. 2021). derstanding the potential environmental, social, and geopolitical
impacts, as well as assessing effectiveness and safety on both re-
gional and global scales (Sovacool et al. 2022). In addition, interdis-
Climate spotlight ciplinary research is required to explore ethical, legal, and gover-
In the present section, we spotlight recent developments in vari- nance frameworks, along with public perception and acceptance,
ous different climate-related areas: coral bleaching, toxic orange while emphasizing the critical importance of drastically reduc-
rivers, solar radiation modification (SRM) research, climate scien- ing greenhouse gas emissions. There is a consensus study avail-
tists’ opinion on global temperatures, climate change as a social able as a roadmap for solar geoengineering research and research
justice issue, climate feedback loops and tipping points, and the governance (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and
risk of societal collapse. Medicine 2021).

Coral bleaching Climate scientists’ opinion on global

Coral reefs benefit millions of people by providing a wide range temperatures
of ecosystem services, including coastal protection, improved wa- A 2024 opinion poll has unveiled the predictions of hundreds
ter quality, fisheries, and tourism opportunities; they also provide of prominent climate scientists of the IPCC, senior authors, and
habitat for many species (Woodhead et al. 2019). Climate change review editors (380 respondents). From a personal perspective,
is a particularly serious threat to coral reefs (Hoegh-Guldberg nearly 80% of these scientists anticipate global temperatures in-
et al. 2017). Warm-water coral death is sometimes preceded by creasing by at least 2.5°C above preindustrial levels by the end of
bleaching—the loss of a symbiotic relationship with microalgae the century (Carrington 2024). Nearly half of them foresee a rise of
(figure 5a; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2017). When a sharp spike in sea at least 3°C. A mere 6% believe that the internationally agreed-on
temperature unfolds well above the long-term average summer limit of 1.5°C will be achieved (figure 5d). This parallels an earlier
maximum, many corals die quickly within a week or two with- survey of IPCC scientists, which showed that approximately 60%
out having time to bleach. Others bleach and either die more expected warming of at least 3°C (Tollefson 2021). These projec-
slowly over a period of a few months or regain their color and sur- tions paint a bleak picture of the future, with many scientists en-
vive (Hughes et al. 2018). As of 2024, extraordinarily warm ocean visioning widespread famines, conflicts, mass migration, and in-
temperatures (figure 1a) are driving the fourth global-scale coral creasing extreme weather that will surpass anything witnessed
bleaching event ever recorded (previous events: 1998, 2010, 2014– thus far, posing catastrophic consequences for both humanity
2017; Thiem 2024). and the biosphere (Carrington 2024). It is important to keep
in mind, however, that such characterizations can suffer from
Toxic orange rivers conflation of matters of science (i.e., how much warming are we
Climate change in the Arctic is altering watershed hydrology and committed to for a given emissions pathway) and matters of pol-
water biogeochemistry. Recently, researchers have observed an icy (what pathways are still possible and what the obstacles are).
 Ripple et al. | 7

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Figure 4. Photograph series depicting the impacts of climate-related disasters. First row (left to right): Rescue of people stranded by floods in the city of
Canoas, Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil, 2024; Duda Fortes, Agência RBS), “Drought in Ethiopia due to rains unrealised” (Ethiopia, 2011; Oxfam East Africa; CC
BY 2.0). Second row: Firefighters contain a bushfire burning around the town of Aberdare (Australia, 2013; Quarrie Photography, Jeff Walsh, Cass
Hodge; CC BY-NC-ND 2.0), The aftermath of Hurricane Matthew (Haiti, 2016; UN Photo/Logan Abassi; CC BY-NC-ND 2.0). Third row: Inspection of a
storm-damaged roadway in California (United States, 2023; Andrew Avitt/USDA Forest Service), Remnants of a house on Leyte island that was
destroyed by Typhoon Haiyan (The Philippines, 2013; Trocaire/Wikimedia; CC BY 2.0). All quotes are from the Climate Visuals project
(https://climatevisuals.org). See supplemental file S1 for details and more pictures.
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Figure 5. Climate change spotlight topics. Already, many serious climate impacts are occurring, including coral bleaching (a) and permafrost thaw
contributing to orange rivers with reduced fish abundance and drinking water quality (b). Recent years have seen a dramatic increase in the number
of scientific publications related to solar radiation modification (c). A survey of hundreds of IPCC senior authors and review editors indicates that the
majority expect catastrophic warming of at least 2.5 degrees Celsius this century (d). Extreme heat is expected to disproportionately affect people in
less wealthy countries that have lower emissions (e). Climate change could eventually contribute to societal collapse—a possibility that is increasingly
being considered by researchers (f). See supplemental file S1 for data sources and details. Photographs: (a) Acropora/Wikimedia Commons, (b) Ken
Hill/National Park Service.

There is no way to know, for example, whether the polled IPCC ness can undermine the motivation for action (Mann and Hayhoe
physical scientists based their assessments on the science or sim- 2024). Conversely, it has also been suggested that optimism gives
ply on their views of the political prospects for action (Mann and rise to inaction, if people think things are fine and therefore action
Hayhoe 2024). is not needed (Wilson 2021). In any case, the importance of tone
One of the numerous challenges for scientists is how to com- may be overstated in this context, and more research is needed
municate about climate change (Guenther 2024). Some have to better identify motivating factors for climate action (Bamberg
argued that attitudes of pessimism and resignation can be et al. 2018).
obstructive to climate action. Moreover, some say those who op- With the increasingly undeniable effects of climate change, a
pose action have resorted to alternative strategies including the dire assessment is an honest assessment. Denying the existen-
propagation of pessimism, because embracing a sense of helpless- tial threat posed by climate change is becoming increasingly less
 Ripple et al. | 9

Table 2a. Summary of amplifying physical feedback loops.

Feedback Effect of climate change Effect on climate change

Water vapor† ↑ Increasing water vapor content ↑ Greenhouse effect

Sea ice albedo*† ↑ Sea ice melting or not forming ↓ Albedo
Ice sheets*†‡ ↑ Glacier and ice sheet melting/instability ↓ Albedo
Sea level rise‡ ↑ Sea levels ↓ Albedo (↑ coastal submergence)
Snow cover† ↓ Snow cover ↓ Albedo
Clouds†  Cloud distribution and optical properties  Cloud albedo and greenhouse effect
Ocean stratification ↑ Ocean stratification ↓ Carbon uptake by ocean

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Solubility pump† ↑ Atmos. CO2 levels ↓ CO2 absorption by ocean
CH4 hydrates*‡ ↑ CH4 hydrate dissociation rates ↑ Release of CH4 into atmos.
Ice–elevation‡ ↓ Ice sheet or glacier elevation ↑ Glacier and ice sheet melting, ↓ albedo
Antarctic rainfall‡ ↓ Ice sheet extent, ↑ precipitation ↓ Albedo, ↑ deep ocean warming

Note: Feedback loops that may involve tipping elements are flagged with asterisks (*). As an approximate indicator of feedback loops that are most likely to be partly
included in certain climate models, feedback loops that are referenced in figure TS.17 (feedback loops overview) or figure 5.29 (biogeochemical feedback loops) of
IPCC (2021) are flagged with daggers (†). Many of these feedback loops will likely have major effects on Earth’s climate, but others may be more speculative. Feedback
impacts operate on a range of time scales; feedback loops we believe to be particularly slow are flagged with double daggers (‡). Symbols indicate decreasing (↓),
increasing (↑), and changing (). Abbreviations: atmospheric, atmos.; CH4 , methane; CO2 , carbon dioxide. See Ripple and colleagues (2023b) for full loop descriptions,
grouping information, limitations, and selected references. The table and caption are adapted from Ripple and colleagues (2023b).

plausible. The fact is that avoiding every tenth of a degree of warming. Areas of active climate feedback loop research include
warming is critically important. Rather than presenting a climate permafrost–cloud interactions (de Vrese et al. 2024), glacier melt-
change prognosis pessimistically or optimistically, we just want water (Pelle et al. 2023), and biodiversity (Weiskopf et al. 2024).
to act truthfully and tell it like it is. We must emphasize both ur- Because feedback loops are not yet fully integrated into climate
gency and agency when it comes to our characterizations of the models, current emissions reduction plans might fall short in ad-
needed action on climate (Mann 2023). equately limiting future warming.
Some climate feedback loops are linked to tipping points, po-
Climate change as a social justice issue tentially triggering major and irreversible changes in the Earth
Climate change is a matter of diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI), system without further pushing by human activities. Tipping ele-
because the wealthy people that emit the most greenhouse gases ments are biophysical systems on Earth with tipping point behav-
are generally less vulnerable to climate impacts (figure 5e). Al- ior that contribute to regulating the climate system (Lenton et al.
though the ramifications of emissions are global, they are par- 2008). They have recently been assessed for their tipping sensitiv-
ticularly severe in the Global South (Ngcamu 2023). Vulnerabil- ity. Five of sixteen climate tipping elements are likely to cross their
ity to climate change is shaped by a complex interplay of social, tipping points at 1.5°C: the Greenland ice sheet, the West Antarc-
economic, and political factors, leaving historically diverse, un- tic ice sheet, boreal permafrost, low-latitude coral reefs, and the
derserved, and marginalized communities disproportionately af- Barents Sea Ice (Armstrong McKay et al. 2022). Several climate
fected (Levy and Patz 2015). DEI principles underscore the urgency tipping elements are connected, and if one tips, others may tip,
to address these disparities. Embedding climate change within triggering a tipping point cascade (Wunderling et al. 2024). Over-
the framework of organizational DEI activities may help to foster all, this points to a complex situation where climate controlling
comprehensive and meaningful progress toward equity and sus- feedback loops and tipping point systems are interconnected in
tainability. By recognizing the disproportionate impacts of climate a way that could trigger self-perpetuating processes that am-
change on marginalized communities, organizations can work to- plify warming beyond human control. Therefore, we recommend
ward rectifying historical injustices by funding countries in the the IPCC publish a special report on feedback loops and tipping
Global South to maintain decarbonization while addressing ur- points.
gent climate change concerns. In addition, DEI considerations are
relevant to international climate policy; for example, they can Risk of societal collapse
help guide efforts to rapidly and equitably phase out fossil fuel The climate emergency is not an isolated issue. Global heating, al-
extractions (Muttitt and Kartha 2020). though it is catastrophic, is merely one aspect of a profound poly-
The ethical dimensions of climate change have led many faith crisis that includes environmental degradation, rising economic
leaders to speak out on the issue (e.g., Nhat Hanh 2015, Pope Fran- inequality, and biodiversity loss (Hoyer et al. 2023). Climate change
cis 2023). This represents an opportunity for diverse communities is a glaring symptom of a deeper systemic issue: ecological over-
to build alliances around the issue. shoot, where human consumption outpaces the Earth’s ability to
regenerate (Rees 2023, Ripple et al. 2024). Overshoot is an inher-
Climate feedback loops and tipping points ently unstable state that cannot persist indefinitely. As pressures
Awareness and research need to increase on climate feedback increase and the risk of Earth’s climate system switching to a
loops. Feedback loops are processes that can either amplify or re- catastrophic state rises (Steffen et al. 2018), more and more sci-
duce the effects of greenhouse gas emissions. Many significant entists have begun to research the possibility of societal collapse
feedback loops enhance warming. At least 28 amplifying feed- (Brozović 2023). Even in the absence of global collapse, climate
back loops have been identified (tables 2a, 2b). A particularly con- change could cause many millions of additional deaths by 2050
cerning feedback loop is the permafrost feedback loop, which in- (WHO 2023).
volves rising temperatures causing permafrost thawing. This pro- Along with the broader danger of overshoot, climate change
cess releases more carbon dioxide and methane, leading to further could contribute to a collapse by increasing the likelihood of
10 | BioScience, 2024, Vol. 0, No. 0

Table 2b. Summary of amplifying biological feedback loops.

Feedback Effect of climate change Effect on climate change

Peatlands† ↑ Drying and fire, ↓ Soil carbon ↑ Release of CO2 into atmos.
Wetlands† ↑ Wetlands area (↑ precipitation) ↑ CO2 seq., ↑ CH4 emissions
Freshwater ↑ Aquatic plant growth rates ↑ CH4 emissions
Forest dieback* ↑ Amazon and other forest dieback ↓ CO2 seq.,  albedo
Northern greening ↑ Boreal forest area, Arctic vegetation ↑ CO2 seq., ↓ albedo
Insects  Insect ranges and abundances ↓ CO2 seq.,  albedo
Wildfire† ↑ Fire activity in some regions ↑ CO2 emissions,  albedo

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Soil carbon (other) ↑ Loss of soil carbon ↑ CO2 emissions
Soil nitrous oxide†  Soil microbial activity ↑ Nitrous oxide emissions
Permafrost emissions*† ↑ Permafrost thawing ↑ CO2 and CH4 emissions
Permafrost–cloud ↑ Permafrost thawing, landscape drying ↓ Summer cloudiness, ↓ albedo
Soil and plant ET ↑ ET from soils and plants ↓ Latent heat flux
Microbes (other) ↑ Microbial respiration rates ↑ CO2 and CH4 emissions
Plant stress ↑ Thermal stress, ↑ droughts ↑ Plant mortality, ↓ CO2 seq.
Desertification ↑ Desert area ↓ CO2 seq.,  albedo
Coastal productivity ↑ Coastal ecosystem degradation ↓ Coastal ecosystem carbon seq.
Metabolic rates ↑ Phytoplankton respiration rates ↑ CO2 released into atmos.

Note: Feedback loops that may involve tipping elements are flagged with asterisks (*). As an approximate indicator of feedback loops that are most likely to be partly
included in certain climate models, feedback loops that are referenced in figure TS.17 (feedback loops overview) or figure 5.29 (biogeochemical feedback loops) of
IPCC (2021) are flagged with daggers (†). Many of these feedback loops will likely have major effects on Earth’s climate, but others may be more speculative. Feedback
impacts operate on a range of time scales. Symbols indicate decreasing (↓), increasing (↑), and changing (). Abbreviations: atmospheric, atmos.; CH4 , methane;
CO2 , carbon dioxide; evapotranspiration, ET; sequestration, seq. See Ripple and colleagues (2023b) for full loop descriptions, grouping information, limitations, and
selected references. The table and caption are adapted from Ripple and colleagues (2023b) with the addition of the permafrost–cloud feedback (de Vrese et al. 2024).

catastrophic risks such as international conflict or by causing dioxide, which persists in the atmosphere for centuries, methane
multiple stresses, resulting in system-wide synchronous failures has a relatively short atmospheric lifetime, making reductions im-
(Kemp et al. 2022). The number of published articles using cli- pactful in the short term (Shindell et al. 2024). Drastically cutting
mate change and societal collapse language has been dramatically methane emissions can slow the near-term rate of global warm-
increasing (figure 5f; supplemental methods). Climate change has ing, helping to avoid tipping points and extreme climate impacts.
already displaced millions of people, and has the potential to In a world with finite resources, unlimited growth is a perilous
displace hundreds of millions or even billions more, leading to illusion. We need bold, transformative change: drastically reduc-
greater geopolitical instability (Table S3). By the end of the cen- ing overconsumption and waste, especially by the affluent, sta-
tury, roughly one-third of people worldwide could be outside the bilizing and gradually reducing the human population through
human climate niche, facing increased risk of illness and early empowering education and rights for girls and women, reform-
death, famine, and a host of other adverse outcomes (Lenton et al. ing food production systems to support more plant-based eating,
2023). and adopting an ecological and post-growth economics frame-
work that ensures social justice (Table S4). Climate change in-
struction should be integrated into secondary and higher educa-
Conclusions tion core curriculums worldwide to raise awareness, improve cli-
Despite six IPCC reports, 28 COP meetings, hundreds of other re- mate literacy, and empower learners to take action. We also need
ports, and tens of thousands of scientific papers, the world has more immediate efforts to protect, restore, or rewild ecosystems.
made only very minor headway on climate change, in part be- The surge in yearly climate disasters shows we are in a major
cause of stiff resistance from those benefiting financially from crisis with worse to come if we continue with business as usual.
the current fossil-fuel based system. We are currently going in the Today, more than ever, our actions matter for the stable climate
wrong direction, and our increasing fossil fuel consumption and system that has supported us for thousands of years. Human-
rising greenhouse gas emissions are driving us toward a climate ity’s future depends on our creativity, moral fiber, and persever-
catastrophe. We fear the danger of climate breakdown. The evi- ance. We must urgently reduce ecological overshoot and pursue
dence we observe is both alarming and undeniable, but it is this immediate large-scale climate change mitigation and adaptation
very shock that drives us to action. We recognize the profound ur- to limit near-term damage. Only through decisive action can we
gency of addressing this global challenge, especially the horrific safeguard the natural world, avert profound human suffering, and
outlook for the world’s poor. We feel the courage and determina- ensure that future generations inherit the livable world they de-
tion to seek transformative science-based solutions across all as- serve. The future of humanity hangs in the balance.
pects of society (table S4). Our goal is to provide clear, evidence-
based insights that inspire informed and bold responses from cit-
izens to researchers and world leaders.
Supplemental material
Rapidly phasing down fossil fuel use should be a top priority. Supplemental data are available at BIOSCI online.
This might be accomplished partly through a sufficiently high The methods and details of planetary vital sign variables used
global carbon price that could restrain emissions by the wealthy in this report along with other discussion appear in supplemen-
while potentially providing funding for much-needed climate mit- tal file S1 of this article. A list of the scientist signatories for
igation and adaptation programs. In addition, pricing and reduc- Ripple and colleagues (2020) as of 29 March 2023 appears in
ing methane emissions is critical for effectively mitigating climate supplemental file S2 of this article. Note that these signatures are
change. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, and unlike carbon not for the current article.
 Ripple et al. | 11

Acknowledgments Flores BM, et al. 2024. Critical transitions in the Amazon forest sys-
tem. Nature 626: 555–564.
We dedicate this article to the memory of Saleemul Huq (1952–
Goldman L, Carter S. 2024. Global Forest Watch’s 2023 tree cover
2023). We thank Wake Smith, Mark Olsoe, Genevieve Guenther,
loss data explained. Global Forrest Watch (4 April 2024). www.
Terry Hughes, Robert R. Dunn, William H. Calvin, Katherine
globalforestwatch.org/blog/data-and-tools/2023-tree-cover-
Graubard, and Karen Wolfgang for providing helpful suggestions.
loss-data-explained.
Primary funding was received from the CO2 Foundation and Roger
Goreau TJ, Hayes RL. 2024. 2023 Record marine heat waves: Coral reef
Worthington. JCS was supported by Danish National Research
bleaching HotSpot maps reveal global sea surface temperature
Foundation grant DNRF173.
extremes, coral mortality, and ocean circulation changes. Oxford
The World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency paper
Open Climate Change 4: kgae005.

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Received: August 4, 2024. Accepted: August 13, 2024

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