Introduction to Statistics

Continuous Probability Distributions

DIVYA MANCHAN DA, ASSISTA NT PROFESSOR

M AHIND R A UNIV E R S IT Y S C HO O L O F M ANAG E M E NT

CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
Continous Random Variables: Examples
Continous Random Variables: Examples

❑ Assume a student plans to study for an upcoming exam and they usually study
for anywhere between 2 to 5 hours per day, depending on their schedule.

❑ Questions?
• What is the random variable here?
• Is this continuous random variable? Why?
• What is the probability of the student studying exactly 4 hours?
• What is notation for finding the probability of the student studying between 1.5
and 3 hours?
Continuous Probability Distributions

• Probability of a continuous random variable taking a fixed value is always zero, i.e., P (x =
a) = 0, for any real number x
• For continuous random variables, we always talk about the probability of the random
variable falling in a certain interval
• P(a ≤ x ≤ b) ≥ 0
• Continuous random variables take values in the (subset of the) real line
Continuous Probability Distributions

• Probability Density Function (PDF) Counterpart of the probability function in discrete

distributions
• Probability Density Function (PDF) provides a complete description of the probability
distribution of a continuous random variable. The PDF shows how likely different
outcomes are and is used to calculate probabilities over ranges of values, not specific
points.
• Denoted by f (x )
• Probability of a continuous random variable falling in a certain interval is obtained by
calculating the area under the probability density function in that interval.
Continuous Probability Distributions: Properties

• The probability density function of a continuous random variable X, denoted as

𝑓(𝑥), must satisfy two key properties
1. The probability between any two intervals cannot be less than 0 :

2. The total area under the PDF curve must be equal to 1

Cumulative Distribution Function, Expectation and Variance

• Cumulative distribution function: Denotes the probability of the random variable (X)
being less than a certain value

• Expected value of a continuous random variable is :

• Variance of a continuous random variable is:

Uniform Continuous distribution

❑ Assume a student plans to study for an upcoming exam and they usually study for
anywhere between 2 to 5 hours per day, depending on their schedule. The
time spent studying each day is equally likely to be any value between 2 and 5
hours. This means the study time is uniformly distributed over the interval from 2
to 5 hours
❑ Let’s say you are waiting for a bus, and the bus is equally likely to arrive anytime
between 10 minutes and 20 minutes. This means the waiting time is uniformly
distributed over the interval from 10 to 20 minutes
❑ Suppose the temperature in a city is continuously distributed between 20°C and
30°C throughout the day. The temperature at any given time is a continuous
random variable, and we assume that the probability of the temperature being any
specific value is uniform across this range
Uniform Distribution Function, Expectation and Variance

• Density function

• Expected value of a uniform random variable is :

• Variance of a uniform random variable is:

Uniform Distribution: Example 1
❑ Delta Airlines quotes a flight time of 2 hours, 5 minutes for its flights from Cincinnati to
Tampa. Suppose we believe that actual flight times are uniformly distributed between 2 hours
and 2 hours, 20 minutes.
1. Show the graph of the probability density function for flight time.
2. What is the probability that the flight will be no more than 5 minutes late?
3. What is the probability that the flight will be more than 10 minutes late?
4. What is the expected flight time?
Exercise 1
❑ In October 2012, Apple introduced a much smaller variant of the Apple iPad, known as the iPad Mini.
weighing less than 11 ounces, it was about 50% lighter than the standard iPad. Battery tests for the iPad
Mini showed a mean life of 10.25 hours (The Wall Street Journal, October 31, 2012). Assume that
battery life of the iPad Mini is uniformly distributed between 8.5 and 12 hours.

1. Give a mathematical expression for the probability density function of battery life.
2. What is the probability that the battery life for an iPad Mini will be 10 hours or less?
3. What is the probability that the battery life for an iPad Mini will be at least 11 hours?
4. What is the probability that the battery life for an iPad Mini will be between 9.5 and 11.5 hours?
5. In a shipment of 100 iPad Minis, how many should have a battery life of at least 9 hours?
Normal Probability Distribution
• In a normal distribution, outcomes are not equally likely; they cluster around a central
value
• A normal distribution is a continuous probability distribution that is symmetric about the
mean, showing that data near the mean are more frequent in occurrence than data far
from the mean.
Normal Probability Distribution

✓ Which graph is symmetric around mean ?

Normal Probability Distribution
• The normal distribution is
symmetric
• The shape of the normal
curve to the left of the
mean is a mirror image of
the shape of the normal
curve to the right of the
mean
• The tails of the normal curve
extend to infinity in both
directions and theoretically
never touch the horizontal axis
• Because it is symmetric, the
normal distribution is not skewed
• Its skewness measure is zero
Normal Distribution

❑ The entire family of normal distributions is differentiated by two parameters:

1. Mean
2. Standard deviation
• The highest point on the normal curve is at the mean, which is also the median and
mode of the distribution
• The mean of the distribution can be any numerical value: negative, zero, or
positive
Normal Distribution: Different Means, Same Standard Deviation

❑ Three normal distributions with the same standard deviation but three different
means (−10, 0, and 20) are shown below
Normal Distribution: Same Means, Different Standard Deviations

• Two normal distributions with the

same mean but with different
standard deviations are shown here.
• The standard deviation determines
how flat and wide the normal curve
is
• Larger values of the standard
deviation result in wider, flatter
curves, showing more variability in
the data
Normal Distribution
• Probabilities for the normal random variable are given by areas under the normal
curve
• The total area under the curve for the normal distribution is 1
• Because the distribution is symmetric, the area under the curve to the left of the mean
is 0.50 and the area under the curve to the right of the mean is 0.50
• The percentage of values in some commonly used intervals are:
• 68.3% of the values of a normal random variable are within plus or minus one standard
deviation of its mean
• 95.4% of the values of a normal random variable are within plus or minus two standard
deviations of its mean
• 99.7% of the values of a normal random variable are within plus or
minus three standard deviations of its mean
Normal Distribution: Area Under Curve
Standard Normal Distribution
• Normal distribution with µ = 0 and σ = 1
• Usually denoted by z
• Density function of the standard normal distribution:
Standard Normal Distribution: Probability Calculations
With regards to the standard normal distribution, we need to compute three types of
probabilities:
1. The probability that the standard normal random variable z will be less than or equal to
a given value
2. The probability that z will be between two given values
3. The probability that z will be greater than or equal to a given value
Standard Normal Distribution: Probability Calculations
❑ How to compute the probability that z is less than or equal to 1?
Standard Normal Distribution: Probability Calculations
• Refer to the standard normal probability table
• The cumulative probability corresponding to z = 1.00 is the table value located at the
intersection of the row labeled 1.0 and the column labeled .00
• First we find 1.0 in the left column of the table and then find .00 in the top row of the
table
• By looking in the body of the table, we find that the 1.0 row and the .00 column
intersect at the value of 0.8413; thus,
P(z ≤ 1.00) = 0.8413
Standard Normal Distribution: Probability Calculations
❑ How to compute the value of z in the table?
Standard Normal Distribution: Probability Calculations
❑ How to compute the probability that z is in the interval between
−0.50 and 1.25; that is, P(−0.50 ≤ z ≤ 1.25)?
Standard Normal Distribution: Probability Calculations
❑ Three steps are required to compute P(−0.50 ≤ z ≤ 1.25)
1. Find the area under the normal curve to the left of z = 1.25
2. Find the area under the normal curve to the left of z = −0.50
3. Subtract the area to the left of z = −0.50 from the area to the left
of z = 1.25 to find P(−0.50 ≤ z ≤ 1.25)
➢ Exercise: Calculate P(−0.50 ≤ z ≤ 1.25).
Standard Normal Distribution: Probability Calculations
❑ How to compute the probability of obtaining a z value of at least 1.58; i.e.,
P(z ≥ 1.58)?
Standard Normal Distribution: Probability Calculations
• There are two ways to calculate P(z ≥ 1.58)
• Method 1: Calculate P(z ≤ 1.58) and subtract it from 1
• P(z ≥ 1.58) = 1 − P(z ≤ 1.58)
• The total area under the standard normal density curve is 1
• Hence, P(z ≥ 1.58) + P(z ≤ 1.58) = 1
• Method 2: Calculate P(z ≤ −1.58)
• Since the standard normal distribution is symmetric,
P(z ≥ 1.58) = P(z ≤ −1.58)
Standard Normal Distribution: Probability Calculations
• In some situations, we are given a probability and are interested in working backward
to find the corresponding z value
• Suppose we want to find a z value such that the probability of obtaining a larger
z value is 0.10
Standard Normal Distribution: Probability Calculations
• This problem is the inverse of those in the preceding examples
• Previously, we specified the z value of interest and then found the corresponding
probability, or area
• In this example, we are given the probability, or area, and asked to find the corresponding
z value
• Recall that the standard normal probability table gives the area under the curve to
the left of a particular z value
• We have been given the information that the area in the upper tail of the curve is 0.10
• Hence, the area under the curve to the left of the unknown z value must equal to 0.9
• Scanning the body of the table, we find .8997 is the cumulative probability value
closest to .9000
 Standard Normal Distribution: Probability Calculations

• Reading the z value from the left most column and the top row of the table, we
find that the corresponding z value is 1.28
• An area of approximately .9000 (actually .8997) will be to the left of z = 1.28
Computing Probabilities for Any Normal Probability Distribution
• Probabilities for all normal distributions are computed by using the standard normal
distribution
• When we have a normal distribution with any mean µ and any standard deviation σ, we
answer probability questions about the distribution by first converting to the standard
normal distribution
• Then we can use the standard normal probability table and the appropriate z values to
find the desired probabilities
• Converting any normal random variable to a standard normal random variable:
Exercise
❑ A random variable is normally distributed with a mean of µ = 50 and a standard
deviation of σ = 5.
• What is the probability the random variable will assume a value between 45 and 55?
• What is the probability the random variable will assume a value between 40 and 60?
Exercise
❑ The mean cost of domestic airfares in the United States rose to an all-time high of $385
per ticket (Bureau of Transportation Statistics website, November 2, 2012). Airfares were
based on the total ticket value, which consisted of the price charged by the airlines plus
any additional taxes and fees. Assume domestic airfares are normally distributed with a
standard deviation of $110.
1. What is the probability that a domestic airfare is $550 or more?
2. What is the probability that a domestic airfare is $250 or less?
3. What is the probability that a domestic airfare is between $300 and $500?
Exercise
❑ Automobile repair costs continue to rise with the average cost now at $367 per repair
(U.S. News & World Report website, January 5, 2015). Assume that the cost for an
automobile repair is normally distributed with a standard deviation of $88. Answer the
following questions about the cost of automobile repairs.
1. What is the probability that the cost will be more than $450?
2. What is the probability that the cost will be less than $250?
3. What is the probability that the cost will be between $250 and
$450?
4. If the cost for your car repair is in the lower 5% of automobile repair charges, what is
your cost?
Exercise: Home Work
❑ The port of South Louisiana, located along 54 miles of the Mississippi River between New
Orleans and Baton Rouge, is the largest bulk cargo port in the world. The U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers reports that the port handles a mean of 4.5 million tons of cargo per week (USA
Today, September 25, 2012). Assume that the number of tons of cargo handled per week is
normally distributed with a standard deviation of 0.82 million tons.
1. What is the probability that the port handles less than 5 million tons of cargo per week?
2. What is the probability that the port handles 3 or more million tons of cargo per week?
3. What is the probability that the port handles between 3 million and 4 million tons of
cargo per week?
4. Assume that 85% of the time the port can handle the weekly cargo volume without
extending operating hours. What is the number of tons of cargo per week that will require
the port to extend its operating hours?
Chebyshev’s Theorem
• Chebyshev’s Theorem, also known as Chebyshev's inequality, is a fundamental result in
probability and statistics that provides a way to understand the dispersion of data points in a
distribution, regardless of the shape of the distribution

• The theorem states that for any real-valued random variable with a finite mean (μ) and a
finite standard deviation (σ), the proportion of observations that fall within k standard
deviations of the mean is at least
Chebyshev’s Theorem