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CLIMATE CHANGE
ADAPTATION MANUAL
Success in the international negotiations on mitigating climate change seems

further away than ever. The importance and urgency of adaptation is becoming
more and more apparent. It is now one of the main imperatives of international
research and action. However, past and present research on adaptation is mostly
not directly applicable to adaptation policy or practice, leaving a disconcerting gap
between scientific results and practical advice for decision makers and planners.
This book seeks to address this problem. It bridges the gap and provides readers
with practical and readily applicable information on climate change adaptation.
Following a context-setting introduction, the book is organised into four
main sections. Each reflects an essential component of the adaptation process.
Whereas most books in the field focus on adaptation in developing countries, this
volume provides an examination of policy and practice in industrialised countries,
predominantly in Europe. It offers novel inter-disciplinary insight into cutting-
edge knowledge and lessons learned.
Andrea Prutsch is an adaptation policy advisor in the Department of

Environmental Impact Assessment and Climate Change at the Environment
Agency Austria.
Torsten Grothmann is senior scientist in the Department of Ecological

Economics at the University of Oldenburg, Germany.
Sabine McCallum is Head of Department of Environmental Impact Assessment

and Climate Change at the Environment Agency Austria.
Inke Schauser is an adaptation policy advisor in the Department of Climate

Change Impacts and Adaptation (KomPass) at the Federal Environment Agency,
Germany.
Rob Swart is coordinator of international climate change adaptation research at

Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Netherlands.
This page intentionally left blank
CLIMATE CHANGE
ADAPTATION MANUAL
Lessons learned from
European and other
industrialised countries
Edited by Andrea Prutsch,

Torsten Grothmann, Sabine McCallum,
Inke Schauser and Rob Swart
First published 2014
by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 4RN
and by Routledge
711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2014 selection and editorial material, Andrea Prutsch, Torsten
Grothmann, Sabine McCallum, Inke Schauser and Rob Swart;
individual sections, the contributors
The right of Andrea Prutsch, Torsten Grothmann, Sabine
McCallum, Inke Schauser and Rob Swart to be identified as author
of the editorial material, and of the individual authors as authors of
their contributions, has been asserted by them in accordance with
sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or
reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical,
or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including
photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or
retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Climate change adaptation manual : lessons learned from European
and other industrialised countries / edited by Andrea Prutsch,
Torsten Grothmann, Sabine McCallum, Inke Schauser and
Rob Swart.
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Climatic changes – Risk management. 2. Climate change
mitigation. 3. Emergency management. 4. Human beings –
Effect of climate on. I. Prutsch, Andrea.
QC903.C55 2014
363.738´746–dc23 2013032548
ISBN13: 978-0-415-63040-5 (hbk)
ISBN13: 978-0-415-66034-1 (pbk)
ISBN13: 978-0-203-38126-7 (ebk)
Typeset in Baskerville
by HWA Text and Data Management, London
CONTENTS
List of figures xii

List of tables xiv
List of contributors xvi
Foreword xx
Acknowledgements xxv
PART I
Introduction and overview 1
1 Guiding principles for good adaptation and structure of this book 3

Inke Schauser, Sabine McCallum, Andrea Prutsch, Torsten Grothmann
and Rob Swart
1.1 Why this book? 3
1.2 Structure of the book 5
2 Facing the specific challenges of adaptation 7

Andrea Prutsch, Sabine McCallum, Torsten Grothmann, Inke Schauser
and Rob Swart
2.1 Introduction 7
2.2 Addressing challenges in the guiding principles for good
adaptation 11
3 Adaptation research: where do we stand and where should

we go? 14
Torsten Grothmann
3.1 Introduction 14
vi Contents
3.2 Theoretical concepts in IVA research 15

3.3 Some general methodological considerations 17
3.4 Final remarks 21
4 Adaptation policy initiatives in Europe 24

Sabine McCallum and Stéphane Isoard
4.1 Introduction 24
4.2 EU-level efforts 26
4.3 National efforts 31
4.4 Transnational, regional, and local efforts 33
4.5 Conclusion 35
PART II
Phases of adaptation processes and guiding principles
for good adaptation 39
5 Explore potential climate change impacts and vulnerabilities

and identify priority concerns 41
Inke Schauser, Andrea Prutsch, Torsten Grothmann, Sabine McCallum
and Rob Swart
Explanation of the guiding principle 41
Chapter overview 43
5.1 Regional vulnerability assessment in the Alps 43
Marc Zebisch, Stefan Schneiderbauer and Lydia Pedoth
5.2 Practical guidance for vulnerability assessments at the regional
and local scale (BalticClimate) 50
Mattias Hjerpe and Julie Wilk
5.3 An ad-hoc prioritisation methodology applied in the Swiss
national adaptation strategy 57
Roland Hohmann, Thomas Probst, Pamela Köllner-Heck,
Hugo Aschwanden and Bruno Schädler
5.4 Lessons learned for the assessment of climate change impacts
and vulnerabilities 62
Inke Schauser
6 Initiate adaptation, ensure commitment and management 67

and Rob Swart
Chapter overview 68
6.1 The role of governments in adaptation: A comparison across
Europe 68
Reinhard Steurer and Anja Bauer
Contents vii
6.2 Building commitment for adaptation: The right place at the

right time? 74
Julian Wright
6.3 Initiating and sustaining adaptation in the private sector 78
Magnus Benzie and Oskar Wallgren
6.4 Lessons learned for the management and governance of
adaptation 84
Andrea Prutsch
7 Build knowledge and awareness 89

Torsten Grothmann, Andrea Prutsch, Inke Schauser, Sabine McCallum
and Rob Swart
Chapter overview 90
7.1 The European Climate Adaptation Platform (Climate-ADAPT) 91
André Jol and Stéphane Isoard
7.2 Awareness of climate change adaptation in Denmark: How to
address a target group 97
Louise Grøndahl
7.3 Making climate change scenarios useful for regional adaptation
plans in France 102
Christian Pagé
7.4 Adaptation communication with business actors and the
general public at the metropolitan level: Experiences from
northwestern Germany 107
Claudia Körner and Andreas Lieberum
7.5 Lessons learned for the communication of impacts,
vulnerabilities and adaptation options 114
Torsten Grothmann
8 Identify and cooperate with relevant stakeholders 119

and Rob Swart
Chapter overview 120
8.1 Lessons learned from stakeholder involvement in the
development of the Austrian National Adaptation Strategy 121
Andrea Prutsch and Therese Stickler
8.2 Stakeholder involvement for developing adaptation innovations
in rural areas: Examples from Berlin-Brandenburg 128
Andrea Knierim
8.3 Ancona is getting ready! How the city of Ancona is building
resilience using a participatory process 136
Marco Cardinaletti
viii Contents
8.4 Lessons learned for stakeholder engagement 145

Torsten Grothmann
9 Explore a wide spectrum of adaptation options 153

Inke Schauser, Andrea Prutsch, Torsten Grothmann, Sabine McCallum
and Rob Swart
9.1 Identifying and sorting adaptation options 154
Inke Schauser and Andreas Vetter
9.2 Adaptation: What could it look like? Examples from the
Adaptation Inspiration Book 159
Marjolein Pijnappels
9.3 Identifying adaptation options: Practical experience from the
application of the Adaptation Wizard 164
Megan Gawith, Roger Street and Kay Johnstone
9.4 Lessons learned for the identification of adaptation options 170
Inke Schauser
10 Prioritise adaptation options 174

Rob Swart, Andrea Prutsch, Torsten Grothmann, Inke Schauser and
Sabine McCallum
10.1 Economic appraisal 176
Paul Watkiss and Alistair Hunt
10.2 Prioritisation of adaptation options for the Netherlands:
A Multi-Criteria Analysis 186
Ekko C. van Ierland, Karianne De Bruin and Rob B. Dellink
10.3 Prioritising actions using adaptation tipping points and
adaptation pathways 190
Marjolijn Haasnoot, Jaap Kwadijk and Nathalie Asselman
10.4 Lessons learned for the prioritisation of adaptation options 196
Rob Swart
11 Work with uncertainties 201

and Rob Swart
11.1 An adaptive approach to conservation management in
Bosherston Lakes SAC 202
Clive Walmsley and Tristan Hatton-Ellis
Contents ix
11.2 Robust decision-making? Managing uncertainties in adapting

water resource systems to a changing climate in England and
Wales 208
Suraje Dessai and Geoff Darch
11.3 How to communicate climate change uncertainties:
recommendations from psychological research 213
Torsten Grothmann
11.4 Lessons learned for decision-making under uncertainty 219
Torsten Grothmann
12 Avoid maladaptation 224

Rob Swart, Andrea Prutsch, Torsten Grothmann, Inke Schauser
and Sabine McCallum
12.1 A white decay of winter tourism in Europe? 226
Carmen de Jong
12.2 Combining climate change mitigation and adaptation: Green
roofs in Basel, Switzerland 233
Aleksandra Kazmierczak
12.3 Climate change opportunities and sustainability 237
Rob Swart and Marjolein Pijnappels
12.4 Lessons learned for the avoidance of maladaptation 242
Rob Swart
13 Modify existing and develop new policies, structures and

processes 246
and Rob Swart
13.1 Climate-proofing: A step-wise approach for mainstreaming
adaptation applied to EU policies 248
Sabine McCallum and Thomas Dworak
13.2 Assessing the climate change fitness of policies: The case of
spatial planning in the Alpine space 256
Marco Pütz and Sylvia Kruse
13.3 The world’s second northernmost capital region adapts to
climate change: The Helsinki metropolitan adaptation
strategy 261
Lasse Peltonen, Leena Kopperoinen and Susanna Kankaanpää
13.4 Lessons learned for mainstreaming adaptation 266
Sabine McCallum and Andrea Prutsch
x Contents
14 Monitor and evaluate systematically 272

and Rob Swart
14.1 Asking the right questions: Monitoring and evaluating
adaptation 273
Patrick Pringle
14.2 Adaptation indicators: A basis for monitoring implementation
and effectiveness 281
Jelle van Minnen, Mike Harley, Kaj van de Sandt and
Willem Ligtvoet
14.3 The French approach to monitoring an adaptation plan 288
Bertrand Reysset
14.4 Lessons learned for the monitoring and evaluation of
adaptation 293
Andrea Prutsch
PART III
State of art outside Europe 297
15 Adaptation experiences in other industrialised countries and

in developing countries 299
Rob Swart
15.1 The state of the art in adaptation science, policy and practice
in the United States 301
Richard H. Moss, Thomas J. Wilbanks and Sherry B. Wright
15.2 Doing it right: Getting science into Australian adaptation
policy 308
Rohan Nelson and Mark Howden
15.3 Wise adaptation to climate change: Japan 314
Makoto Tamura, Kazuya Yasuhara, Nobuo Shirai and
Mitsuru Tanaka
15.4 Principles for adaptation decision-making in developing
countries 320
Kelly Levin
15.5 Context-specific and yet transferable? A reflection on
knowledge-sharing in the field of adaptation to climate change 326
Britta Horstmann
15.6 Lessons learned and differences between Europe and other
regions 332
Rob Swart
Contents xi
PART IV
Lessons learned 339
16 Lessons learned from practical cases of adaptation to climate

change in industrialised countries 341
Rob Swart, Torsten Grothmann, Sabine McCallum, Andrea Prutsch
and Inke Schauser
16.1 How to prepare the ground for adaptation 342
16.2 How to plan for adaptation 344
16.3 How to implement adaptation and review success 346
Index 348
FIGURES
5.1.1 Framework of the vulnerability assessment 44

5.2.1 A chart illustrating the three blocks and the specific exercises in
the vulnerability approach 51
5.2.2 Factors affecting the ability to adapt in a Finnish region 54
5.3.1 Assessment of the topics in the water management sector 59
7.2.1 Group work at the Tour de klimatilpasning 101
7.3.1 Change in precipitation and temperature for the Bouches-
du-Rhône département in winter 104
7.4.1 Example screenshot from scrap-paper animation clip 111
7.4.2 User interface for nordwest2050 online climate game 112
8.3.1 Geographical context of the city of Ancona 137
9.2.1 Children planting trees in the waterboxes in Viladecans 163
9.3.1 The Adaptation Wizard 165
10.3.1 Example of an Adaptation Pathways map 193
10.3.2 The River Rhine and its main tributaries in the Netherlands 194
10.3.3 Adaptation Pathways map for the River Rhine 194
11.1.1 Submerged beds of Chara hispida in Bosherston Lakes 203
11.1.2 Water lilies at Bosherston Lakes 204
11.1.3 Assessment of the risk of tidal overtopping of the dam 205
11.1.4 Schematic diagram of the adaptive management cycle adopted
for the Bosherston Lakes SAC 206
12.1.1 Problems with maintenance of artificial snow cover at the
end of the season, Val Thorens, 2011 229
12.1.2 Attempts to adapt to climate change by means of artificial snow
production 231
12.1.3 The carrying capacity of a ski resort after three main phases of
development 232
List of figures xiii
12.2.1 The green roof of the Basel Exhibition Hall 237

12.3.1 Taking climate change into account in spatial planning and
water management projects 239
13.3.1 The process of preparing the Helsinki Metropolitan Area
Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 263
14.1.1 Internal and shared learning through monitoring and
evaluation 276
14.1.2 A question-based approach to adaptation M&E 280
14.2.1 EEA conceptual framework for adaptation indicators 283
14.2.2 Monitoring framework in ASC adaptation assessment toolkit 284
14.2.3 Dutch adaptive capacity wheel and scoring scheme 285
14.3.1 Interlinkage of the national adaptation process with regional
and local processes 289
14.3.2 Monitoring and evaluation framework of the French NAP 291
15.2.1 Participatory development of adaptation policy 313
15.3.1 Dual approach for climate change adaptation 315
15.3.2 Research map of climate change issues in Japan 316
15.3.3 Guidance for local governments in the initiation of adaptation
planning and implementation 318
15.5.1 Characteristics of adaptation processes relevant for
transferability 327
TABLES
1.1 Phases of adaptation processes and guiding principles for good

adaptation 5
5.1.1 Five-step regional vulnerability assessment 45
5.1.2 Results of the vulnerability assessment for the agricultural
sector per impact 49
5.3.1 Assessment of topics in the water management sector that
could potentially be affected by climate change 60
6.1.1 Overview of governance challenges and governance approaches 72
6.2.1 Summary of some of the key steps in the establishment of the
adaptation response in England and the UK 77
6.3.1 Strengths and weaknesses of the ARP and CDP schemes for
initiating adaptation in the private sector 83
7.4.1 Communication principles in nordwest2050 109
8.1.1 Overview of involvement formats in Austria 122
8.2.1 Types of actors in INKA BB 130
8.2.2 Overview of the agricultural stakeholders involved in INKA BB 131
8.3.1 Direct/indirect influence matrix for the Ancona Local
Adaptation Board 140
8.3.2 Overview of stakeholder involvement instruments used by the
Ancona LAB 141
8.3.3 Advantages and disadvantages of stakeholder involvement tools 142
9.3.1 Excerpt of adaptation options to address priority risks 167
9.3.2 Excerpt of potential adaptation options to address risks to new
homes and existing stock 169
10.1.1 Methodologies for assessing the costs and benefits of adaptation 178
10.1.2 Coverage of studies for European adaptation costs and benefits 180
List of tables xv
10.1.3 Traditional and new decision support tools for evaluating

adaptation options 182
10.2.1 Ranking of high-priority options 188
13.1.1 EU legislation in which mainstreaming is taking/has
already taken place 250
14.2.1 Recommendations to support the future development and
use of adaptation indicators 287
15.2.1 Criteria used for selecting policy processes in Australian
adaptation research 311
16.1.1 Phases of adaptation processes and guiding principles for good
adaptation 342
CONTRIBUTORS
Hugo Aschwanden Deputy Head of Water Division, Swiss Federal Office for
the Environment, Switzerland
Nathalie Asselman Specialist consultant Flood Risk Management, Deltares, the
Netherlands
Anja Bauer Senior Researcher, University of Natural Resources and Life
Sciences, Vienna, Austria
Magnus Benzie Research Fellow, Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI),
Sweden
Karianne de Bruin Senior Research Fellow, CICERO, Center for International
Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo, Norway
Marco Cardinaletti European Project Manager for Sustainable Development,
Eurocube srl, Italy
Geoff Darch Principal Scientist, Atkins, UK
Rob B. Dellink Assistant Professor, Environmental Economics and Natural

Resources Group, Wageningen University, the Netherlands
Suraje Dessai Professor, Chair in Climate Change Adaptation, Sustainability
Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK
Thomas Dworak Director, Fresh-Thoughts Consulting GmbH, Austria
Megan Gawith Research Scientist, Environment Agency, UK
Louise Grøndahl Policy Advisor, Task Force on Climate Change Adaptation,

Danish Ministry of the Environment / Danish Nature Agency, Denmark
Contributors xvii
Torsten Grothmann Senior Scientist, Department Ecological Economics,

University of Oldenburg, Germany
Marjolijn Haasnoot Senior Researcher, Deltares, the Netherlands
Mike Harley Director, Climate Resilience Ltd, UK
Tristan Hatton-Ellis Senior Freshwater Ecologist, Natural Resources Wales, UK
Mattias Hjerpe Assistant Professor, Centre for Climate Science and Policy
Research and Water and Environmental Studies, Linköping University, Sweden
Roland Hohmann Senior Scientific Officer, Swiss Federal Office for the
Environment, Switzerland
Britta Horstmann Researcher, German Development Institute, Germany
Mark Howden Chief Research Scientist, CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship

and CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Australia
Alistair Hunt Research Fellow, University of Bath, UK
Ekko C. van Ierland Professor, Environmental Economics and Natural

Resources Group, Wageningen University, the Netherlands
Stéphane Isoard Project Manager ‘Climate change adaptation and economics`,
Vulnerability and Adaptation Group, European Environment Agency, Denmark
Kay Johnstone Advisor, Environment Agency, UK
André Jol Head of Group Vulnerability and Adaptation, European

Environment Agency, Denmark
Carmen de Jong Professor, Mountain Centre, University of Savoy, France
Susanna Kankaanpää Climate Specialist, Helsinki Region Environmental

Services Authority (HSY), Finland
Aleksandra Kazmierczak Research Fellow, University of Manchester, UK
Andrea Knierim Professor, University of Hohenheim, Germany
Pamela Köllner-Heck Senior Scientific Officer, Swiss Federal Office for the
Leena Kopperoinen Senior Researcher, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE),
Finland
Claudia Körner Communication Officer, Sustainability Center Bremen, c/o
econtur gGmbH, Germany
Sylvia Kruse Research Fellow, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and
Landscape Research (WSL), Switzerland
xviii Contributors
Jaap Kwadijk Director of Science, Deltares, the Netherlands
Kelly Levin Senior Associate, World Resources Institute, US
Andreas Lieberum Head of the Sustainability Center Bremen, c/o econtur

gGmbH, Germany
Willem Ligtvoet Senior Policy Advisor, PBL Netherlands Environmental
Assessment Agency, the Netherlands
Sabine McCallum Head of Department of Environmental Impact Assessment
and Climate Change, Environment Agency Austria
Jelle van Minnen Senior Policy Advisor, PBL Netherlands Environmental
Assessment Agency, the Netherlands
Richard H. Moss Senior Scientist, Joint Global Change Research Institute,
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, US
Rohan Nelson Associate Professor, Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture,
University of Tasmania, Australia
Christian Pagé Research Engineer (Highly Qualified), Sciences de l’Univers au
CERFACS, URA CERFACS/CNRS No1875, Toulouse, France
Lydia Pedoth Researcher, EURAC, Italy
Lasse Peltonen Research Coordinator, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE),

Finland
Marjolein Pijnappels Knowledge communication and visualisation, Studio
Lakmoes, the Netherlands
Patrick Pringle Deputy Director, UKCIP, Environmental Change Institute,
University of Oxford, UK
Thomas Probst Senior Scientific Officer, Swiss Federal Office for the
Andrea Prutsch Adaptation Policy Advisor, Department of Environmental
Impact Assessment and Climate Change, Environment Agency Austria
Marco Pütz Head of Research Group, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow
and Landscape Research (WSL), Switzerland
Bertrand Reysset Technical advisor, Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable
Development and Energy, France
Kaj van de Sandt Research Fellow, Wageningen University, the Netherlands
Bruno Schädler Senior Researcher, Institute of Geography, University of Berne,

Switzerland
Contributors xix
Inke Schauser Adaptation Policy Advisor, Department of Climate Change

Impacts and Adaptation (KomPass), Federal Environment Agency, Germany
Stefan Schneiderbauer Senior Researcher, EURAC, Italy
Nobuo Shirai Project Professor, Center for Regional Research Hosei University,
Japan
Reinhard Steurer Associate Professor, University of Natural Resources and Life
Sciences, Vienna, Austria
Therese Stickler Policy Advisor, Environment Agency Austria
Roger Street Technical Director, UKCIP, Environmental Change Institute,

University of Oxford, UK
Rob Swart Coordinator of international climate change adaptation research,
Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, the Netherlands
Makoto Tamura Associate Professor, Institute for Global Change Adaptation
Science, Ibaraki University, Japan
Mitsuru Tanaka Professor, Faculty of Social Sciences, Hosei University, Japan
Andreas Vetter Policy Advisor, Federal Environment Agency, Germany
Oskar Wallgren Senior Project Manager, Stockholm Environment Institute

(SEI), Sweden
Clive Walmsley Senior Climate Change Advisor, Natural Resources Wales, UK
Paul Watkiss Director, Paul Watkiss Associates, Oxford, UK
Thomas J. Wilbanks Corporate Research Fellow, Climate Change Science

Institute and Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory,
US
Julie Wilk Director Head of Research Area, Centre for Climate Science and
Policy Research and Water and Environmental Studies, Linköping University,
Sweden
Julian Wright Senior Advisor, Environment Agency, England
Sherry B. Wright Coordinator of Energy and Infrastructure Impacts Programs,

Climate Change Science Institute and Environmental Sciences Division, Oak
Ridge National Laboratory, US
Kazuya Yasuhara Professor Emeritus, Institute for Global Change Adaptation
Science, Ibaraki University, Japan
Marc Zebisch Scientific Head of the Institute for Applied Remote Sensing,
EURAC, Italy
FOREWORD
European Commission – DG Climate Action

Climate change is a reality, and its impact is increasingly felt in Europe and around
the world. Our first priority remains reducing greenhouse gas emissions to keep
global warming below 2°C and avert dangerous climate change. Far-reaching EU
legislation on mitigation measures is already in place for this.
However, irrespective of the success of mitigation efforts, climate impacts will
increase in the coming decades because of the delayed effect of past and current
greenhouse gas emissions. This is why, alongside our mitigation measures, we need
policies focused on adaptation. Action taken now will avoid increased costs and
losses later.
Adaptation efforts are already underway across the EU at various governance
levels and in different sectors. Several EU Member States have adopted a national
adaptation strategy, and more are being prepared. Some of these strategies have
been followed up by action plans, and there has been some progress in integrating
adaptation measures into sectoral policies. Beyond the national level, many
transnational cooperation projects on adaptation have been initiated over the last
years which receive financing by EU-funds such as the LIFE+ and INTERREG
programmes. At the local level, a significant share of adaptation activities takes place
at city level. There are already many examples of cities in Europe that have adopted
adaptation strategies or action plans or are in the process of developing them.
With the EU Adaptation Strategy adopted in the spring of 2013 we aim to
raise the profile of adaptation to climate change and step up action on adaptation
across the EU, complementing and supporting the Member States’ activities.
The strategy particularly also supports action by promoting greater coordination
and information-sharing between Member States, and by ensuring that adaptation
considerations are addressed in all relevant EU policies.
Foreword xxi
Targeted information is crucial for decisions on adaptation and – this being

still a fairly new policy field – not always easy to come by. Sharing knowledge
and experience in adaptation policy and practice thus plays an important role
in facilitating mutual learning from practical examples and supporting effective
adaptation action.
This Climate Change Adaptation Manual presents a variety of adaptation
approaches and practical experiences across Europe and provides a comprehensive
overview of the state of the art in other continents. It structures the cases along
generic guiding principles for good practice in adaptation, addresses challenges in
adaptation processes and how to overcome them, and highlights lessons learned.
I am confident that this book will be useful to adaptation practitioners and of
interest to all concerned with adaptation.
Humberto Delgado Rosa

Director of Directorate C
(Mainstreaming Adaptation and Low Carbon Technology),
DG Climate Action, European Commission
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and

Development (OECD)
Adaptation to climate change is inevitable. However, successful adaptation will
depend on the effectiveness of the actions taken by governments, businesses, civil
society and households in response to a changing climate. Supporting this process
in a fair, effective and efficient way is a central policy question for OECD members
and partner countries.
During the past decade, there has been a progression from research on the
potential impacts of climate impacts to the development of strategies to prepare
for these changes. Since 2005, 18 OECD countries have produced national
strategies that help to plan, co-ordinate and communicate national action on
adaptation. The key challenge now is to move from planning to implementation.
Our research has identified three priorities for successfully making this transition.
The first priority is to embed adaptation across the public sector as a whole,
securing strong engagement beyond environment ministries. The cross-cutting
nature of adaptation requires working across traditional sectoral and policy
boundaries, often to address existing inefficiencies. For example, improved
management of flood risk may require reforms to land-use planning, design
standards, insurance markets and innovation policy.
It is also essential to support the private sector’s response to climate change.
There is currently high awareness of climate change impacts, but sparse action
to manage the resulting risks. There is a pressing need to make the business case
for targeted action in this area. An integral part of this will be to strengthen
links between researchers and end-users to ensure that relevant tools and data
are being produced. Regulatory frameworks governing private infrastructure
xxii Foreword
also need to be fit for purpose, removing barriers to cost-effective action on

adaptation.
The third priority is to integrate robust monitoring and evaluation from the
outset of programme and policy design. By doing so, this will help to ensure that
interventions are delivering their expected results and to learn lessons to inform
the design of future interventions. It can also help to ensure accountability for
mainstreamed approaches to adaptation.
This manual is very timely in offering practical guidance on these key issues.
It makes an important contribution in supporting the implementation of high-
quality adaptation strategies and measures.
Michael Mullan
Team Leader – Climate Change Adaptation and Development,
Environment Directorate,
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
European Environment Agency

Climate change is now a major part of planning for the future. Around the world,
the extent and speed of change is becoming ever more evident according to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report ‘Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis’ and,
as reported in the EEA’s 2012 ‘Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe’,
climate change is already causing a wide range of impacts on society and the
environment in Europe. While reducing greenhouse gas emissions, there is also a
need for society to adapt. Otherwise, damage costs will continue to rise.
EEA’s 2013 report on Adaptation in Europe shows that 16 European member
countries have already developed national adaptation strategies (nine more than in
2008), and that 12 more are in the process of doing so. As the first comprehensive
overview on adaptation in Europe, the report also highlights a wealth of regional,
transnational and local responses, tailor-made to address specific conditions
and needs as well as social and economic contexts. There is no ‘one-size-fits-all’
approach to adaptation.
National adaptation strategies to date address primarily the water, agriculture
and forestry, biodiversity, and human health sectors. Examples of implemented
actions show that adaptation of both natural and human systems is already taking
place across Europe. At EU level, instruments for implementing adaptation policy
include mechanisms such as cohesion, agriculture and infrastructure funds, as well
as support under the LIFE+ programme. These are critical in helping to integrate
adaptation into EU policy – a process known as ‘mainstreaming’ of adaptation.
Research has a key role to play in strengthening the knowledge base on climate
change adaptation in Europe. National and EU-funded research has improved
the understanding of past and current changes in the climate system, scenarios
for future climate change and the impacts and vulnerabilities/risks. There are,
nevertheless, some areas that require more information and assessments. These
Foreword xxiii
include the costs and benefits of adaptation actions and the monitoring and
evaluation of adaptation, for example through the development of indicators.
In addition, research can help improve the process of planning, implementing
and reviewing adaptation policies by further examining the factors for successful
adaptation and good practices as well as highlighting remaining knowledge gaps.
In that context, national adaptation portals as well as the European Climate
Adaptation Platform (Climate-ADAPT, http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu) are
important tools for sharing with stakeholders at all levels of governance practical
experiences in developing and implementing actions and the results of research
(i.e. EU research, INTERREG and ESPON projects) on climate change risks,
adaptation practices, national initiatives or decision-support tools.
Policy makers face the challenge of designing and implementing adaptation
approaches that are: coherent across sectoral domains and levels of governance;
flexible so that strategies and plans can be progressively adjusted to new conditions
as they unfold and are updated with new information from monitoring, evaluation
and learning; and participatory as involvement of stakeholders (policymakers,
NGOs, businesses, citizens) is important in creating a sense of ‘ownership’ in
adaptation policy. These challenges bring opportunities for research to further
support the implementation phase of the European Strategy on Adaptation to
Climate Change.
The strategy includes a guidance document for development of national
adaptation strategies and this Climate Change Adaptation Manual provides a wealth
of information that complements the approaches presented in the guidance
document.
The origin of the Climate Change Adaptation Manual was, at least in part,
earlier EEA work on guiding principles for good practice in adaptation. EEA
is convinced that this publication strengthens the knowledge on adaptation to
climate change and that it will support, for a wide range of stakeholders, related
policy developments and their implementation.
Dr. Hans Bruyninckx

Executive Director of the European Environment Agency (EEA)
Science
The IPCC in its 5th Assessment report reconfirms most findings of earlier
assessments of the risks of climate change. It specifically notes a broadening
evidence basis that brings the already observed impacts of climate change to the
fore and deepens our understanding of what the future impacts may be.
The stagnant pace of the international negotiations on curbing the increase of
greenhouse gas emissions suggests that the options to avoid dangerous impacts of
climate change are dwindling. So adaptation is not only unavoidable; indeed, it is
also urgent. Since the 2009 Copenhagen UNFCCC Conference of Parties, there
is global agreement that climate change is real and that, if major damage is to be
xxiv Foreword
avoided, global mean temperature rise should be limited to at most 2°C as compared
to pre-industrial levels. However, both the current observed warming, and the future
warming to which we are increasingly becoming committed due to past emissions,
are at odds with this long-term goal. At the same time, in most regions there is still
much uncertainty as to how climate change will manifest itself locally and what the
effects will be, in particular with respect to rainfall and crucial extreme events.
Yet despite the remaining uncertainty, it is clear that we must act now to
develop policies and allocate resources. This does not only apply to national
governments, but also to municipalities, water managers, farmers and firms. But
how? And when? What are the options? How should we prioritise them? And
which instruments do we have at our disposal to implement them? And when
implemented, how do we know that they will be effective?
Because the emphasis at national and international levels has been on
mitigation for a long time, actual experiences in adaptation that give answers to
these questions are as yet very scarce. Therefore, the publication of this manual
is very timely.
Although Europe has, like other regions, started to adapt late to the prospect
of climate change, more than half of the EU Member States have now adopted
national adaptation strategies, and in 2013 a European adaptation strategy was
released. At the same time, cities, river basin management institutions, and energy
and agricultural organisations have started to consider boosting their climate
resilience. Europe is, therefore, leading the way in experimenting with climate
change adaptation, and it is thus appropriate that the examples in this manual
originate from that continent.
The manual organises its guidance around ten principles for adaptation that
are broadly applicable in any region. Thus, although adaptation can be highly
localised in its character, it is possible to transfer knowledge about adaptation from
one context to another; and the manual makes abundantly clear that meaningful
adaptation is possible, now, regardless of current uncertainty.
In the coming years, more experiences will be developed with actual adaptation
to climate change in Europe and elsewhere. Research and practice will further
increase our understanding of what works and what does not, and in which
circumstances. Through the work of UNEP PROVIA (Programme of Research
on Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation) and many other initiatives, research
results and practical experiences can be shared around the world to help reduce
the number of people and assets at risk. This manual is critical reading for all who
want to engage in reducing vulnerability to climate change, from practitioners to
policy makers and researchers.
Professor Martin Parry

Grantham Institute and Centre for Environmental Policy,
Imperial College London
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The idea of developing this book was triggered by the publication of ‘Guiding
principles for adaptation to climate change in Europe’ in 2010. We are grateful to
the European Environment Agency (EEA), in particular to André Jol and Stéphane
Isoard, for giving us the opportunity to develop those guiding principles under the
work programme of the European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change
(ETC/ACC). We acknowledge the feedback from 252 experts on earlier versions
of the guiding principles responding to an internet survey, overall agreeing that
they integrate the most important aspects of good practice in adaptation.
We are thankful to the publishers at Earthscan, now Routledge, for enabling
us to compile this book based on the earlier ETC/ACC publication and we also
recognise the dedicated team at Routledge, in particular our main contact Helen
Bell, for support throughout the production of the manual. Extended thanks also
go to all contributing authors, who agreed to enrich this book with a wide variety
of case studies reflecting their experiences with adaptation policy and practice
around the world. We very much appreciated the high quality and timely input
which indeed substantially helped to finalise the manuscript.
Claire Bacher, John James O’Doherty, Ulrike Hofer and Ingrid Klaffl deserve
gratitude for their English proofreading and giving us detailed comments on the
wording and harmonising the referencing.
Finally, the authors are also grateful to Humberto Delgado Rosa (European
Commission), Hans Bruyninckx (European Environment Agency), Michael Mullan
(OECD) and Martin Parry (Grantham Institute and Centre for Environmental
Policy, Imperial College) for kindly providing forewords to this book.
PART I
Introduction and overview

1
GUIDING PRINCIPLES FOR
GOOD ADAPTATION AND
STRUCTURE OF THIS BOOK
Inke Schauser, Sabine McCallum, Andrea Prutsch,

Torsten Grothmann and Rob Swart
1.1 Why this book?

Climate change is already affecting our environment, our economy, and our way
of living: evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural
and social systems are being affected by regional climate change (Parry et al.
2007). A series of extreme weather events in the last decade, such as the heat wave
in Europe in 2003, flooding of the rivers Elbe and Danube in 2002 and 2013,
and the drought and associated forest fires in 2010 in Russia, have also shaped
public awareness of climate change. These events have all highlighted the need
for Europe to adapt itself to the realities of climate change, especially considering
that the frequency and magnitude of extreme events such as these are projected to
increase in the coming years (IPCC 2012).
Adaptation is necessary to minimise negative impacts resulting from current
and expected climate change, and in order to maximise our ability to benefit from
any opportunities that climate change may bring. The question is, how to adapt?
Simple advice, such as ‘save energy’ or ‘use more renewable energy’, is suitable
and effective when it comes to preventing climate change. However, when it comes
to adapting to climate change, there is no equivalent simple advice. Nevertheless,
some common recommendations and guiding principles do exist, and they are
equally valid in different countries, for different economic sectors, and for different
climatic threats.
Adaptation to climate change is already taking place in Europe and across the
world. In fact, adaptation to changing conditions is not a new phenomenon. Both
traditional and industrialised societies have adapted their environments to alleviate
risks associated with climate variability throughout human history, a process known
as autonomous adaptation. It is to be expected that some autonomous adaptation
by economies and societies will continue to take place even without any policy
4 Schauser, McCallum, Prutsch, Grothmann and Swart
intervention. Autonomous responses to a changing environment by individuals,

groups or organisations will take place whenever actors perceive that people or
assets are at risk, or where they perceive that action will provide economic and
societal benefits.
However, autonomous adaptation on its own will not be fully adequate for
coping with climate change (EEA 2013). The complexity of climate change,
and the range and magnitude of risks we might face, may overwhelm a process
of autonomous adaption. Instead, it will be necessary to implement planned
adaptation, which proactively addresses potential risks and opportunities. Planned
adaptation will help policy makers and societies to take decisions that will remain
both robust (to cover all possible climate change scenarios) and flexible (so the
measures can be changed if conditions change) to cope with an uncertain future.
Adapting to climate change is a critical challenge for the future. However, it must
be remembered that climate change is only one of many stresses that influence
decision making, which is also affected by short-term political or economic
challenges, among other things. Climate change must therefore be considered
alongside – and not separate from – environmental, social and economic issues
affecting human and natural systems. Thus, adaptation requires a balanced
approach that addresses both climate and non-climate risks (e.g. globalisation,
demographic change).
In many cases, adaptation options do not solely target adaptation to climate
change, but also aim at other societal or policy objectives. Planning for adaptation
provides the opportunity for actors from different sectors to cooperatively address
future risks and opportunities, while acknowledging the different backgrounds
and values of all involved. Engaging stakeholders, and in particular stakeholders
affected by climate change, offers an opportunity to identify innovative solutions
to climate change that also have legitimacy and broad support.
The past decade has seen a great accumulation of knowledge on climate
change adaptation, both in terms of the policy responses, and in terms of
practical, on-the-ground measures. This manual brings together in one volume
a variety of adaptation approaches and a broad spectrum of lessons learned in
climate adaptation policy and practice up to now. It provides adaptation planners
and decision makers with scientifically based information that is also practical
and user-friendly. It elaborates on key aspects of successful adaptation by giving
examples of adaptation policy and practice that have already been implemented
in Europe. Experience from previous adaptation actions can also be very relevant
in other regions outside Europe.
The title ‘Adaptation Manual’ is not intended to imply that this volume provides
readers with detailed step-by-step instructions on how to plan for adaptation.
Instead, ‘manual’ should be understood in a broader sense. This work shows
different approaches for each adaptation phase, building on generic guiding
principles, and highlighting lessons learned to support sharing of existing knowledge
and experiences.
Guiding principles for good adaptation and structure of this book 5
TABLE 1.1 Phases of adaptation processes and guiding principles for good adaptation
Prepare the ground for adaptation

Explore potential climate change impacts and vulnerabilities and identify priority
concerns (cf. Chapter 5)
Initiate adaptation, ensure commitment and management (cf. Chapter 6)
Build knowledge and awareness (cf. Chapter 7)
Identify and cooperate with relevant stakeholders (cf. Chapter 8)
Plan for adaptation

Explore a wide spectrum of adaptation options (cf. Chapter 9)
Prioritise adaptation options (cf. Chapter 10)
Work with uncertainties (cf. Chapter 11)
Implement adaptation and review results

Avoid maladaptation (cf. Chapter 12)
Modify existing and develop new policies, structures and processes (cf. Chapter 13)
Monitor and evaluate systematically (cf. Chapter 14)
1.2 Structure of the book

This manual is divided into four parts. Part I provides an overview of the general
challenges of adaptation, and the state of current adaptation research and action.
Part II is the core component of the book. It presents the ten guiding
principles for good adaptation that were developed for the EEA by the editors
of this book (Prutsch et al. 2010) (cf. Table 1.1). These ten principles cover the
different interlinked phases of adaptation, from preparing the ground, to the
selection and planning of measures, to the implementation of these measures
and the monitoring and assessment of their progress. In every chapter, the
guiding principle is first explained and updated based on new scientific literature.
The principle is then illustrated by three to four cases representing experiences
from adaptation policy and practice in several European countries. These cases
reflect adaptation experiences from various regions, sectors and levels of decision
making. They have been chosen to illustrate how specific guiding principles can
be realised in practice and not every case can illustrate all ten guiding principles.
Finally, the lessons learned from the cases are identified for each chapter and
guiding principle.
It must be remembered that the guiding principles are not organised in order
of importance. The guiding principles are strongly interlinked and mutually
influenced. Together, they give a common basis for cooperative adaptation
activities across sectors and for all decision-making levels. While developed with a
focus on Europe, the guiding principles are also relevant elsewhere in the world.
In Part III, the focus of the manual is broadened, turning to the state of
adaptation policy and practice in the US, Australia, Japan and developing
6 Schauser, McCallum, Prutsch, Grothmann and Swart
countries. These contributions reflect on the relevance of the guiding principles

for countries outside Europe. Part IV, the final chapter of the manual, summarises
the main lessons learned from the various practical experiences presented in this
book.
With this manual, we aim to provide readers with inter-disciplinary insights into
cutting-edge knowledge and on climate change adaptation, including knowledge
from adaptation research, policy and practice. We believe that learning from past
experience and basing future decisions on what works will increase long-term
adaptive capacity and resilience. Thus, we hope that the lessons learned in this
volume will add to the discussion on how to reach good practice in adaptation and
encourage taking further proactive steps towards a climate-resilient society.
References
EEA (2013) Adaptation in Europe. Addressing risks and opportunities from climate change in the context
of socio-economic developments, EEA Report 3/2013, Copenhagen.
IPCC (2012) Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change
Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken,
K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor and
P.M. Midgley (eds.)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY,
USA, 582 pp.
Parry, M.L., Canziani, O.F., Palutikof, J.P., van der Linden, P.J. and Hanson C.E. (ed.) 2007
Climate Change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group
II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Prutsch, A., Grothmann, T., Schauser, I., Otto, S. and McCallum, S. (2010) Guiding principles
for adaptation to climate change in Europe. ETC/ACC Technical Paper 2010/6, European
Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change. http://air-climate.eionet.europa.eu/
reports/ETCACC_TP_2010_6_guid_princ_cc_adapt
2
FACING THE SPECIFIC
CHALLENGES OF ADAPTATION
Andrea Prutsch, Sabine McCallum,

Torsten Grothmann, Inke Schauser
and Rob Swart
2.1 Introduction
Despite similarities to other planning processes, adaptation to climate change is
characterised by several challenges that set it apart from other planning processes
and must be acknowledged and proactively addressed. The analysis of these
challenges and consideration of how they could be overcome led to the ten
guiding principles for good adaptation presented in Chapter 1 and elaborated in
Chapters 5 to 14.
Adaptation is complex due to the fact that climate change affects all regions,
most sectors, all levels of decision making and many actors from various
backgrounds differently (Grothmann 2011). This diversity and the long-term and
large-scale nature of the risks involved imply that current practice in planning
will be insufficient for comprehensive adaptation. Planning for adaptation also
involves dealing with imperfect knowledge and uncertainties; this can conflict with
the expectation that decision making should be based on agreed-upon “hard”
evidence and robust information. In addition, non-climatic factors such as social
and economic issues must be taken into account in comprehensive adaptation
decision making.
In this chapter, we present a concise summary of the main challenges that can
occur in adaptation processes.
2.1.1 Adaptation faces regional disparities

Climate impacts emerge at the regional and local levels in manifold ways. Due
to the diversity of bio-physical and socio-economic situations in different regions,
the impacts of climate change will differ from region to region. For example, the
European Alps are characterised by small-scale climatic conditions, which in turn
8 Prutsch, McCallum, Grothmann, Schauser and Swart
result in various climate change impacts reflecting the scattered natural landscapes.
The impacts of climate change also vary according to the degree of socio-economic
development and the adaptive capacity of the area.
2.1.2 Adaptation affects sectors differently, and there are

cross-sectoral effects
Climate change affects most sectors; thus, adaptation is a multi-sectoral issue
(Burton et al. 2006, Agrawala & Frankhauser 2008). The sectors involved might
follow different objectives, and a certain adaptation measure in one sector could
create negative side-effects for another sector. In addition, actors from a variety
of sectors will be involved in adaptation, representing diverse values and interests;
some of these might be controversial and generate resistance (de Bruin et al. 2009).
The improved horizontal integration of adaptation policies across sectors within
and beyond the environmental domain will be needed. Additionally, horizontal
integration will also require mechanisms that facilitate the interactions between
state, business and civil society actors.
2.1.3 Adaptation concerns various levels of decision making

The “sphere of competence of authorities in charge of environmental protection
[…] does not always match with the boundaries of the affected environment”
(Liberatore 1997: 116). This applies to the authorities responsible for adaptation,
as adaptation pressures and responses cut vertically across different levels of
decision and policy making, from the EU level to national, regional and local
levels (Klein et al. 2007). These different levels and actors interact with each
other within hierarchical structures (Adger et al. 2005). The need for appropriate
adaptation extends beyond the local and regional scales (Adger et al. 2005,
Paavola & Adger 2006, Swart et al. 2009) and cannot be the sole responsibility of
any single institution.
2.1.4 Adaptation affects many stakeholders with possibly

conflicting interests
Climate change will (and already does) affect a range of actors and stakeholders
(e.g. public authorities, businesses, NGOs, scientific organisations) in different ways;
this makes adaptation imperative for most actors. Multi-actor collaboration can be
challenged by questions regarding, e.g. roles, power, authority and responsibility,
as well as by the multiple and possibly conflicting interests of actors collaborating
on adaptation measures (Lebel et al. 2010). Thus, new mechanisms are often
needed to facilitate cooperation between stakeholders from different fields and
with different competencies and levels of experience.
Facing the specific challenges of adaptation 9
2.1.5 Adaptation despite imperfect information and

uncertainties
The uncertainty of future climate change and its impacts is often perceived to be
the most significant challenge facing adaptation, since changes in the future climate
cannot be accurately projected. This is due to uncertainties with regard to changes
in greenhouse gas emissions and related economic and social developments (e.g.
human behaviour, demographic and technological developments), incomplete
scientific knowledge of the climate system (e.g. tipping points) and insufficient
long-term data for many of the impact indicators on appropriate spatial and
temporal scales. Uncertainties in projected global climate change impacts can
often increase when downscaled to the regional level, and it is not clear as yet
whether more reliable high-resolution projections can ever be developed.
Nevertheless, climate change projections provide clear trends and sufficient
concerns to justify adaptation actions (Adger et al. 2007). In addition, it must
be acknowledged that climate change impacts can already be seen, e.g. glaciers
melting and permafrost thawing (cf. the Europe-wide summary in EEA 2012).
Further changes can be expected due to greenhouse gas emissions in the past and
to lagging progress in climate mitigation policy. Thus, the uncertainties associated
with climate change projections should not be an excuse for inaction or a reason
to delay adaptation. Relying entirely on reactive adaptation is undesirable, since
the costs of impact damages and thus reactive adaptation are expected to be much
higher than the costs of proactive adaptation and residual damages (Frankhauser
et al. 1999, Stern 2006). Furthermore, a wait-and-see attitude would have serious
drawbacks in the case of irreversible climate change consequences (Smith 1997).
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, as several cases in this manual illustrate,
there are many opportunities for actions that will decrease vulnerability that would
make sense even if climate change does not materialise as projected.
2.1.6 Long-term global projections versus information needs

for short-term decision making
In the long term and at the global level, the results from climate change models
provide a reasonably clear picture, as the patterns of change are very similar for
all models (Hallegatte 2009), in particular for temperature projections but also
for precipitation in various regions (including the Mediterranean). However,
this information does not necessarily meet the requirements of most decision-
makers and planners for shorter planning horizons, nor is it always provided at the
appropriate scale to fine-tune adaptation measures for site-specific conditions in a
proactive manner (Frankhauser 2009).
Reacting to changes in the short term will result in poor adaptation because
climate change by its nature is a long-term problem, and the worst effects may
only become visible after decades have passed. In addition, certain adaptation
options have long lead times and might only be fully effective in the long term
(e.g. the introduction of new trees in forest management, the development of new
crop types). Thus, timing and the sequence of response actions are important
(Frankhauser 2009, Horstmann 2008); the most appropriate solutions may
transcend traditional ways of thinking and current practices in decision making.
2.1.7 Adaptation embedded within a broader context

Addressing climate change is only one of many stresses that influence decision
making (Scheraga & Grambsch 1998). In many situations, short-term political
or economic challenges will have a greater influence on decisions than climate
change. Thus, in the case of adaptation, non-climatic developments (e.g.
globalisation, demographic developments) must also be considered. For example,
the level of heat-related fatalities also depends on age distribution and the quality
of public health care. Thus, other processes must be taken into account as well
when planning for adaptation.
In addition to the consideration of economic and demographic changes,
the achievement of ecological and social justice presents a further challenge for
adaptation. This issue relates to disparities in climate change impacts between
different regions, sectors, actors, population groups and species. In Europe, mountain
regions, coastal areas, flood-prone river systems, urban areas, the Mediterranean
and the Arctic are likely to be more severely affected than other regions (EEA
2010). In addition, climate change is expected to have negative consequences for
biodiversity, whereas agriculture may benefit, at least in the short term and in
regions that are disadvantaged by cold temperatures at present. The elderly, ill and
very young are more vulnerable to heat events than average, healthy, middle-aged
people. The challenge is to reach ecological and social (including intergenerational)
balance – also in terms of the costs of climate change and adaptation – in order to
prevent social conflicts or ecological damage. In this context, Paavola and Adger
(2006: 607) propose that “adopting the principles of avoiding dangerous climate
change, forward-looking responsibility, putting the most vulnerable first and equal
participation of all would be a step towards fairer adaptation”.
2.1.8 Identifying and overcoming potential barriers

Multiple types of barriers may hinder successful adaptation action. These
include financial (e.g. lack of financial resources for adaptation), cognitive (e.g.
lack of motivation for adaptation), behavioural (e.g. lack of leadership qualities
in critical positions), social (e.g. lack of political action) and cultural (e.g. cultural
traditions that restrict cooperation between different stakeholders) barriers
(Adger et al. 2007, Lorenzoni et al. 2007, Hulme et al. 2007, EEA 2009, Burch
2010, Grothmann 2011). Further barriers can arise from hindering regulations,
opposing political interests, impeding organisational or managerial structures
or the lack of technology (Grothmann 2011, Grothmann et al. 2009, Clar et al.
2013). Missing information regarding climate change and its impacts might also
pose a major barrier to adaptation. In addition, the lack of information exchange

and communication between sciences and policy as well as limited experience and
competence in dealing with climate-related impacts could hinder the adaptation
process (Amundsen et al. 2010, Clar et al. 2013, Grothmann & Siebenhüner 2012).
However, it is important to note that even sufficient information and awareness
of the need for adaptation do not necessarily lead to action (Baron 2006, Weber
2006). In fact, decisions are influenced by personal experiences, individual
perceptions and values, emotions and hidden agendas (Grothmann & Patt 2005,
van de Kerkhof 2006). Hence, every decision-making process includes a certain
level of “surprise” that is difficult to estimate in advance and thus to influence.
Nevertheless, to the extent possible, barriers should be identified and openly
confronted so that they can be removed or transcended (Grothmann 2011,
Grothmann et al. 2009, Lim et al. 2004, Smith et al. 2009).
2.2 Addressing challenges in the guiding principles for

good adaptation
Addressing these various challenges is not an easy task, and because every
adaptation case is unique, it is impossible to provide generalisable step-by-step
instructions for how to tackle them. Nevertheless, the ten guiding principles for
good adaptation presented in Chapter 1 and elaborated in Chapters 5 to 14
attempt to address these challenges by articulating important elements that should
be taken into consideration when preparing the ground for adaptation, planning
and implementing adaptation and reviewing its success.
Certain guiding principles focus on a particular challenge. For example, the
guiding principle “Work with uncertainties” specifically addresses the challenge
of realising adaptation despite imperfect information and uncertainties. Other
guiding principles tackle a wide range of challenges. For example, the principle
“Identify and cooperate with relevant stakeholders” is useful for addressing
the challenge entailed by adaptation’s effects on a variety of stakeholders with
possibly conflicting interests. However, it also addresses the challenges of dealing
with potential cross-sectoral effects, including various levels of decision making,
embedding adaptation within a broader context and identifying and overcoming
potential barriers.
Future research and practice will determine whether additional challenges
of adaptation should be added and new guiding principles developed to address
them.
References
Adger, W.N., Arnell, N.W. and Tompkins, E.L. (2005) “Successful adaptation to climate
change across scales”, Global Environmental Change 15 (2), pp. 77–86.
Adger, W.N., Agrawala, S., Mirza, M.M.Q., Conde, C., O’Brien, K., Pulhin, J., Pulwarty,
R., Smit, B. and Takahashi, K. (2007) “Assesment of adaptation practices, options,
constraints and capacity”, in Parry, M.L., Palutikof, J.P., van der Linden, P.J. and
Handon, C.E. (ed.) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabilty, Working
Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 717–743.
Agrawala, S. and Frankhauser, S. (ed.) (2008) Economic Aspects of Adaptation to Climate Change.
Costs, Benefits and Policy Instruments, OECD, Paris.
Amundsen, H., Berglund, F. and Westskog, H. (2010) “Overcoming barriers to climate
change adaptation – a question of multilevel governance?”, Environment and Planning C:
Government and Policy 28 (2), pp. 276–289.
Baron, J. (2006) “Thinking about global warming”, Climatic Change 77 (1–2), pp. 137–150.
Burch, S. (2010) “Transforming barriers into enablers of action on climate change: Insights
from three municipal case studies in British Columbia, Canada”, Global Environmental
Change 20 (2), pp. 287–297.
Burton, I., Diringer, E. and Smith, J. (2006) Adaptation to Climate Change: International Policy
Options, prepared for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change.
Clar, C., Prutsch, A. and Steurer, R. (2013) Barriers and guidelines for public policies on
climate change adaptation: A missed opportunity of scientific knowledge-brokerage,
Natural Resources Forum 37 (1): pp. 1–18.
De Bruin, K., Dellink, R.B., Ruijs, A., Bolwidt, L., van Buuren, A., Graveland, J., de Groot,
R.S., Kuikman, P.J., Reinhard, S., Roetter, R.P., Tassone, V.C., Verhagen, A. and van
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3
ADAPTATION RESEARCH
Where do we stand and where should

we go?1
Torsten Grothmann
3.1 Introduction
Since the publication of the Stern Review (Stern 2007) and the 4th assessment report
of the IPCC (Parry et al. 2007, Solomon et al. 2007), there has been a broad consensus
– not only among climate change researchers but also among many decision-makers
– about the reality of climate change and the necessity to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions and realise measures to adapt to the unavoidable change. There is less
consensus regarding probable future climate change impacts and vulnerabilities,
and even less on which adaptation measures are necessary and suitable. Research
on climate change impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation (in short: IVA research),
regularly summarised by Working Group II of the IPCC, represents a relatively
young and fragmented field. Nevertheless, the precautionary principle (UNFCCC
1992) states that a lack of complete scientific certainty and consensus should not be
used to justify postponing adaptation measures where there is the threat of serious
(e.g. deaths due to heatwaves) or irreversible damage (e.g. extinction of species).
Because of the initial framing of climate change as an environmental problem
and the emphasis on questions related to the reality of climate change and the
nature and magnitude of climatic risks, climate change science and policy has
long given more weight to the natural sciences, which have strongly contributed
to the recognition of climate change as a serious problem by rigorous quantitative
analyses. The search for solutions that would facilitate mitigation in industrialised
countries led to the involvement of the engineering and economic sciences. During
recent years, the social sciences have become increasingly involved because their
expertise is necessary for an understanding of the social impacts and vulnerabilities
as well as the socio-economic aspects of adaptation (e.g. legal, economic, cultural
and behavioural barriers to adaptation). Interdisciplinary research involving both
natural and social scientists is therefore necessary.
Adaptation research 15
Furthermore, transdisciplinary research (research involving stakeholders

from society and practical experts) is required. Researchers alone cannot answer
questions related to societal values and norms such as: What does “dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system” (UNFCCC 1992: 4) mean?
Which potential impacts of climate change should be regarded as too risky to be
acceptable? Determining the measures that can and should be taken to adapt to
or prevent unacceptable climate change risks also requires the involvement of
members of the affected social systems.
Fortunately, a variety of studies on climate change impacts, vulnerabilities and
adaptation already fulfil these interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary requirements.
Unfortunately, IVA research to date has primarily focused on problems (potential
climate change impacts and vulnerabilities) and barriers to solutions (e.g.
barriers to the realisation of adaptation measures). Rigorous empirical research
on adaptation solutions (e.g. how to plan, implement and evaluate adaptation
measures) is still relatively rare. However, various individuals and organisations
have started to develop and implement adaptation actions. This book builds on
these experiences and makes them accessible to a wider audience so that others
can learn from them.
The overall aim of this chapter is to reflect on IVA research, primarily from a
practice-oriented and a social-science perspective, and to develop recommendations
for its further improvement. First, some central concepts of IVA research are
described. Second, general methodologies of IVA research are considered. The
chapter concludes with a summary of recommendations for future IVA research.
3.2 Theoretical concepts in IVA research
3.2.1 Vulnerability
Due to the traditional natural-science focus in climate change research, most IVA
assessments were initially framed from a natural-science perspective, concentrating
on the potential impacts of climate change on natural systems. Nowadays, IVA
studies are expanding to include assessments of vulnerabilities and adaptation
potential in social-ecological systems, which implies a shift in the balance towards
the social sciences. The IPCC defines vulnerability to climate change as “a function
of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a
system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity” (Parry et al. 2007: 883).
Thus, sensitivity (i.e. will climate change probably result in impacts?) and adaptive
capacity (i.e. will the affected system (e.g. a city) be able to adapt to the impacts or
avoid them?) are important aspects of climate change research. Both aspects are
strongly related to socio-economic factors (e.g. institutional settings and capacities,
access to resources, perceptions, skills and knowledge). Future IVA research should
try to address these socio-economic factors more comprehensively (including their
uncertainties) in order to enable more accurate projections of potential loss and
damage due to climate change.
16 Torsten Grothmann
Notwithstanding the different interpretations of the concept, the IPCC’s

definition of vulnerability can help decision-makers to understand the kinds of
factors they must consider in assessing the vulnerability of the system for which
they are responsible, be it a city, a business organisation or an entire nation. The
concept shows that the loss and damage resulting from climate changes very
much depend upon the sensitivity of a system and how well it is prepared for
these changes. The assessment of a system’s adaptive capacity is particularly
useful, as the identification of weaknesses in adaptive capacities (e.g. lack of
knowledge regarding heatwave risks) can be used to plan adaptation measures
(e.g. communication of heatwave risks) (cf. Grothmann et al. 2013). In general,
because of the vagueness of the vulnerability concept, it is helpful to focus on
more precisely articulated adaptation questions related to its components (Hinkel
2011).
3.2.2 Resilience, robustness, adaptive management and

iterative risk managment
Future climate change and its impacts can only be assessed in terms of ranges
(e.g. ranges of temperature or precipitation change). These uncertainties in the
projections of future climate change and its impacts are due to the limited scientific
understanding of the climate system and social-ecological systems, but also –
sometimes primarily – to the uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions (the
major drivers for climate change and main input variables in assessments of future
climate change and its impacts).
Due to these uncertainties, scientific concepts that describe processes or qualities
that allow social-ecological systems to function under a wide range of possible
future conditions have become popular in IVA research and are especially useful
for decision-makers seeking to adapt to climate change. In IVA research, the most
prominent concept that deals with the challenge of uncertainty is resilience: “The
resilience approach emphasizes non-linear dynamics, thresholds, uncertainty and
surprise, how periods of gradual change interplay with periods of rapid change
and how such dynamics interact across temporal and spatial scales” (Folke 2006:
253). Resilient systems are flexible and can quickly adapt to changed conditions
(e.g. communities with diversified livelihoods). In particular, the consideration of
potential surprises (e.g. climate changes or impacts not included in climate (impact)
projections, such as the heatwave in Europe in 2003) differentiates the resilience
approach from the robustness approach. The robustness approach uses a wide range
of projections of climate change and its impacts to identify robust adaptation
actions (e.g. Dessai & Hulme 2007, Hallegatte et al. 2012). Other concepts used in
IVA research for dealing with uncertainties in future changes are adaptive management
(e.g. Pahl-Wostl 2007) and iterative risk management (e.g. Carter et al. 2007).
Future IVA research should seek to (i) better integrate the various concepts used
in IVA studies (e.g. vulnerability, resilience, adaptive capacity), (ii) refrain from
inventing new concepts for aspects that have been sufficiently described in existing
concepts and (iii) better relate concepts to theoretical frameworks (such as social-
ecological systems or sustainable development). This will hopefully result in a more
consistent and comprehensible use of concepts, avoiding some of the common
misunderstandings among scientists and between scientists and practitioners that
often hinder the generation of new insights and the development of adaptation
solutions.
3.2.3 Adaptation and transformation

Many of the concepts mentioned above (e.g. robustness, adaptive management)
are generally used to describe, explain and support the planning and implemention
of adaptation rather than to assess climate change impacts or vulnerabilities. This
brings us to the next central concept in IVA research: adaptation. Depending on
the conceptual perspective (vulnerability, resilience, robustness, etc.), adaptation
to climate change is conceptualised as reductions in vulnerability, the realisation
of adaptive/iterative risk management or the reinforcement of robustness and/or
resilience. More generally, the IPCC defines adaptation as “adjustment in natural or
human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects,
which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” (Parry et al. 2007: 869).
A recent theoretical development in IVA research is the conceptualisation of
adaptation as a transformative process. Transformations are fundamental cultural,
political, economic, infrastructural or technological changes (WBGU 2011).
Increasingly, publications have argued the case for transformative adaptation (e.g.
Kates et al. 2012, O’Brien 2012, Park et al. 2012), particularly in a potential future
world in which the global temperature target of 2°C is exceeded. A recent study
on the impacts of a possible global temperature increase of 4°C projects that
the impacts on water availability, ecosystems, agriculture and human health will
lead to the large-scale displacement of populations and adverse consequences for
human security and economic and trade systems (PIK 2012). In light of these
severe projected impacts of climate change, many more transformative adaptation
measures would appear to be required.
3.3 Some general methodological considerations

IVA research not only focuses on generating or testing theoretical concepts; it
also seeks to generate and test methods. These methods are often useful for later
research purposes, as well as for practitioners and decision-makers who want to
analyse or prioritise climate change impacts, vulnerabilities or adaptation options
in their respective fields of responsibility.
A comprehensive overview of all of the specific methods and tools that are or
could be used in IVA research would go beyond the scope of this chapter. Many
useful methods and tools are presented in the topic-specific chapters of this book.
Thus, this section will focus on some general methodological procedures used in
IVA research.
3.3.1 Interdisciplinary research and assessments of climate

change impacts and vulnerabilities
Most impact studies on climate change focus on analysing potential climate
changes and their direct biophysical impacts on natural systems (e.g. water
availability) using a scenario- or model-driven approach. They try to represent
system dynamics and their potential consequences in the future, mostly at large
spatial scales. These kinds of studies are often called “top-down” assessments (Dessai
& Hulme 2004).
“Bottom-up” assessments, that evolved out of social vulnerability research (often
used in natural hazards research; cf. Wisner 2009), focus on analysing socio-
economic factors at the local scale that allow or hinder people to react to changes
in their environment (Dessai & Hulme 2004). Social vulnerability research, based
heavily on stakeholder engagement methods, begins by analysing present-day
restrictions in social systems (e.g. poverty, social inequality) that might increase
vulnerabilities to climate change or become barriers to adaptation. This approach
is useful for the identification of important socio-economic factors and current
problems and developments that will need to be integrated into climate change
adaptation in order to make use of synergies and avoid conflicts.
Top-down and bottom-up assessments have different strengths and weaknesses
and their integration can avoid some of the weaknesses. Current IVA research on
climate change is already integrating both approaches, primarily at the local and
regional levels. Nevertheless, improved methods of integration will be required to
overcome the problems arising from the different temporal and spatial scales of
analyses (cf. example Ghimire et al. 2010) and to better tailor assessments to the
scales used in decision-making (Brown et al. 2012).
In order to develop an understanding of social vulnerabilities, social-science
expertise is necessary. This knowledge can contribute concepts and methods
that permit the social differentiation of the affected population along dimensions
such as income, education, social or income inequality, gender, racial, ethnic or
religious background and access to information. Furthermore, the social context
must be considered, including culture, history, political and economic systems
and especially the existence and effectiveness of institutions that could plan
and implement adaptation measures (Gupta et al. 2010). Perceptual aspects are
also important in an understanding of social vulnerabilities. If other problems
(e.g. economic problems) are perceived as more important or more urgent than
adaptation to climate change, the chances of implementing adaptation measures
will decrease, which might in turn increase vulnerability (Grothmann et al. 2013).
Furthermore, in order to assess a social system’s future vulnerability to climate
change, probable societal changes in the future must be considered in addition to
probable climate change. Here, not only changes in demographics, land use and
level of education should be taken into account, but also future social changes
that can be more difficult to predict, such as lifestyle changes, individualisation,
deregulation and potential changes in political stability. In addition, second-order
climate change risks (risks that result from the realisation of mitigation or adaptation
measures) should be considered in assessments of future climate change-related
impacts and vulnerabilities. Inclusion of these factors will contribute to the
development of more realistic scenarios of the future that cover the broad range
of possible future changes (in natural and social systems).
Hence, IVA research must be interdisciplinary, involving both natural scientists
and social scientists. Without the expertise of the social sciences, important social
factors, differentiations, contexts and societal changes are likely to be overlooked
in IVA studies. Without natural scientists, climate change and its impacts on
natural systems cannot be understood in sufficient detail. The specific natural and
social sciences most important to a study will depend on the case-specific impacts,
vulnerabilities and adaptation options as well as the social-ecological system under
investigation.
It is often very difficult to integrate results from the natural sciences with
results from the social sciences. In addition, interdisciplinary coordination is often
complex because these disciplines apply very different paradigms in their research
efforts (e.g. quantitative versus qualitative). Even interdisciplinary coordination
between different social-science disciplines can be troublesome. One positive
example of an obviously successful interdisciplinary coordination is the CLIMAS
project (Climate Assessment for the South-West, USA). Future IVA research
should seek to improve interdisciplinary coordination so that IVA research results
will truly be interdisciplinary, rather than simply multi-disciplinary.
3.3.2 Transdisciplinary research and assessments of

adaptation
For the purpose of realising bottom-up assessments of climate change impacts
and vulnerabilities, but even more for the assessment of adaptation options
and implemented adaptation measures, stakeholder engagement is essential.
Many IVA studies – for example, ATEAM (Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem
Analysis and Modelling) and CLIMAS, which has also been cited as a model for
interdisciplinary coordination – have already applied transdisciplinary research
methods. Transdisciplinary research involves cooperation between scientists
and non-scientists (e.g. stakeholders affected by climate change impacts or
adaptation policies) in order to generate new knowledge. Lebel et al. (2010)
identify six advantages of “social learning” for adaptation to climate change
that can also be seen as the potential advantages of transdisciplinary methods
in IVA research:
1 Transdisciplinary research can reduce informational uncertainty. Informational

uncertainty refers to deficits in knowledge with regard to future developments.
By involving stakeholders and local experts who have knowledge about a
studied system, uncertainties regarding potential climate change impacts,
vulnerabilities and feasible adaptation options can be reduced.2
2 Transdisciplinary research reduces normative uncertainty. Normative uncertainty

is defined as uncertainty about values, norms and goals and also relates to
perceptions of acceptable risk. For example, strong stakeholder participation
in a water-sensitive region can clarify priorities (for instance, tourism) and
acceptable risks (for instance, agricultural losses).
3 Transdisciplinary research facilitates consensus-building regarding the criteria
used for monitoring and evaluation; these are essential elements of adaptive
management and the adaptive governance schemes often used in adaptation
to climate change.
4 Transdisciplinary research can empower stakeholders to influence adaptation
and to take appropriate actions themselves through the sharing of knowledge
and responsibility in participatory processes.
5 Transdisciplinary research can reduce conflicts and identify synergies between
the adaptation activities of various stakeholders, thus improving the overall
chances of success. Coordination is crucial to overcome fragmentation across
sectors, regions and decision levels.
6 Transdisciplinary research can improve the probable fairness, social justice
and legitimacy of adaptation decisions and actions by addressing the concerns
of all relevant stakeholders. Deliberative processes bring together alternative
perspectives and forms of knowledge, reducing the likelihood that adaptation
responses address only the interests of influential and powerful actors.
Furthermore, by involving stakeholders and practitioners, transdisciplinary

research leads to more practice-oriented research results and can actually
contribute to solving problems, rather than simply analysing them. One particular
methodological framework within transdisciplinary research goes beyond mere
problem analysis (the focus of much previous IVA research) and seems to hold
promise for the development of adaptation solutions. This framework, Action
Research, refers to research initiated to solve a problem or a reflective process of
progressive problem-solving (cf. example, Burns 2007). By focusing on developing
solutions, the application of this framework could help shift the focus of IVA
research from adaptation problems to adaptation solutions.
With regard to specific methods for transdisciplinary procedures in IVA research,
experiences from the fields of environmental, natural hazards and developmental
research can also be of great use (Allen 2003, Smit & Wandel 2006). Workshop
formats and also stakeholder interview procedures are important social-science
methods in this respect. These methods have been adapted and improved for the
purposes of IVA research – for example, in participatory integrated assessments
(e.g. Salter et al. 2010), participatory vulnerability research (e.g. Smit & Wandel
2006) and community-based adaptation (e.g. van Aalst et al. 2008).
To date, transdisciplinary IVA studies in industrialised countries have primarily
included governmental and business stakeholders, often neglecting stakeholders
and experts from civil society. This is due in part to the fact that many civil
society organisations in industrialised countries do not perceive that they have any
“stakes” in the adaptation issue (diverging from their perceptions of strong stakes
with regard to climate change mitigation). However, this lack of involvement of
stakeholders and experts from civil society seems also to be due to the lack of
personal and financial resources for such involvement. Future IVA research might
consider reimbursing these stakeholders in order to increase their involvement and
thereby also the legitimacy of transdisciplinary adaptation processes.
3.4 Final remarks

Climate change impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation cannot be analysed by
the natural and engineering sciences alone; social-science expertise and methods
are also necessary for an understanding of social impacts and vulnerabilities,
as well as the social aspects of adaptation. Future IVA research should improve
interdisciplinary coordination so that IVA research results will be not only multi-
disciplinary, but truly interdisciplinary as well. Within this interdisciplinary
coordination, an important aim is the further clarification and theoretical
integration of concepts such as vulnerability, resilience, robustness, adaptive
capacity, adaptive management, adaptation and transformation.
Future IVA studies should also improve the methods and procedures for
transdisciplinary research. Transdisciplinary research designs can reduce
informational and normative uncertainties, build consensus regarding the criteria
used to monitor and evaluate adaptation, empower stakeholders to realise
adaptation, reduce conflicts and identify synergies between adaptation activities,
improve the fairness, social justice and legitimacy of adaptation decisions and lead
to more practice-oriented research that will contribute to solving problems, not
merely analysing them. One particularly promising methodological framework
in this respect is Action Research. By focusing on developing solutions, the
application of Action Research could help the focus of IVA research to shift from
adaptation problems to adaptation solutions.
It would be desirable for more practical adaptation processes – such as those
presented in this manual – to be included in IVA research activities, preferably
in comparative case studies that apply similar conceptual and methodological
frameworks. This would allow a more systematic identification of the lessons
learned from such adaptation processes and facilitate the wider distribution of
results via scientific publications.
Notes
1 This chapter is an updated and extended version of a previous publication (Grothmann
et al. 2011) that was written with the intention to advance research on climate change
impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation, particularly in Germany.
2 Here, the knowledge of practitioners and stakeholders with regard to probable barriers
to climate change adaptation that could limit adaptive capacities is also important, as
these barriers can vary widely from region to region (Grothmann et al. 2009).
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Exploring the Variety of Random
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miekan ulottuvilla, hän käänsi päänsä joko oikealle tai vasemmalle ja
pisti silmänräpäyksessä ratsumiehen maahan tuskin huomattavalla
iskulla. Noissa hänen nopeissa liikkeissään oli jotakin yliluonnollista,
peloittavaa. Niinkuin hamppua leikkaava nainen katoaa siihen niin,
että vain hampun heiluvista töyhdöistä voi päättää mistä hänen
tiensä kulkee, niin katosi herra Wolodyjowskikin suurikasvuisten
ruotsalaisten joukkoon, mutta missä viljaa kaatui kuin niittäjän
iskusta, siinä oli hänkin aina läsnä. Stanislaw Skrzetuski ja synkkä
Jozwa Butryrn, eli Jozwa Jalaton, seurasivat hänen kintereillään.
Vihdoin olivat ruotsalaisten takimmaiset rivit joutuneet aukeamalle

kirkon edessä ja alkoivat laajeta; etumaiset samoin. Kuului upseerin
komennus. Hän tahtoi nähtävästi viedä koko miehistönsä taisteluun.
Hetken kuluttua olivatkin ratsastajat muodostaneet leveämmän
taistelurintaman puolalaisia vastaan. Mutta Jan Skrzetuski, joka oli
seurannut taistelun kulkua ja johtanut lippukuntaa, ei seurannut
ruotsalaisen kapteenin esimerkkiä, vaan syöksyi sensijaan eteenpäin
tiiviinä joukkona, joka murtautui ruotsalaisten rintaman läpi ja ahdisti
sitten takaapäin vihollisen oikeata sivustaa. Vasemman kimppuun
hyökkäsivät Mirski ja Stankiewicz, joilla oli johdettavinaan laudalaisia
ja Kowalskin rakuunat.
Kaksi kamppailua raivosi yht'aikaa, mutta vain lyhyen ajan.

Skrzetuskin ahdistama vasen siipi ei ennättänyt kunnollisesti
järjestäytyä ja hajaantui ennen pitkää. Oikea itsensä kapteenin
johdolla teki kauemmin vastarintaa, mutta murtui sekin.
Lyödyt ruotsalaiset hajaantuivat eri suunnille laudalaisten

ahdistamina. Toisin paikoin taisteltiin vielä joukoittain, mutta toisin
paikoin käytiin kaksintaistelua.
Eri puolilla juoksenteli pelästyneitä hevosia ilman ratsumiehiä.

Herra Wolodyjowski etsi katseellaan komentavaa ruotsalaista
upseeria, ja vihdoin hän huomasikin hänet taistelemassa kahden
Butrymin kanssa. Wolodyjowski karahdutti heitä kohti.
— Pois tieltä! — huusi hän Butrymeille. — Pois tieltä!
Soturit kääntyivät kuuliaisesti syrjään, ja pienikasvuinen ritari ajaa

karahdutti niin vimmatusti ruotsalaista päin, että molempain ratsut
nousivat takajaloilleen.
Upseeri koetti nähtävästi saada vastustajansa satulasta maahan,

mutta herra Wolodyjowski nosti rakuunamiekkansa kahvan rintaansa
vasten, teki sitten sillä liikkeen salaman nopeudella ja lennätti
ruotsalaisen tapparan ilmaan. Upseeri tapasi pistolinsa koteloa,
mutta samassa silmänräpäyksessä osui isku hänen poskeensa, ja
hän hellitti ohjakset vasemmasta kädestään.
— Ottakaa elävänä! — huusi Wolodyjowski Butrymeille.
Laudalaiset tarttuivat haavoittuneeseen, joka horjui satulassaan,

mutta pienikasvuinen ritari ajoi edelleen kaataen vihollisia kuin viljaa.
Ruotsalaiset alkoivat jo joka puolella joutua alakynteen

kaksintaisteluun tottuneemmista puolalaisista aatelisista. Toiset
tarjosivat puolalaisille miekkansa kahvaa pitäen kiinni terästä, toiset
viskasivat aseensa heidän jalkoihinsa huutaen: »pardon!»
Vihdoin ilmaantui aukealle kirkon edustalle talonpoikia ryöstämään

kaatuneita ja antamaan haavoittuneille kuoliniskun.
Niin päättyi liettualaisten ensimmäinen ottelu ruotsalaisten kanssa.

Sillävälin herra Zagloban, joka oli edempänä vankkureineen ja
niillä makaavine vankeineen, täytyi kuunnella tämän katkeria
syytöksiä, koska oli sukulaisena menetellyt niin kehnosti häntä
kohtaan.
— Setä on syössyt minut iäksi onnettomuuteen, sillä nyt minua ei

ainoastaan odota kuula Kiejdanyssa, vaan nimeni on kunniaton ja
pysyy ainiaan sellaisena. Ken tästä puoleen haluaa sanoa: lurjus, voi
yhtä hyvin sanoa: Roch Kowalski!
- Se on totta, eikä sitä kukaan kielläkään, — vastasi Zagloba —

Mutta paras todistus sinun hölmöydestäsi on, että vielä ihmettelet
minun keppostani, vaikka minä olen itse Krimin kaania pyörähytellyt
kuin nukkea. Luuletko todellakin, että minä olisin sallinut sinun viedä
meidät, valtakunnan parhaat pojat, Birźeen ruotsalaisten
surmattaviksi?
— Enhän minä omasta tahdostani ollut teitä sinne kuljettamassa!
— Mutta sinä toimit pyövelin apurina, ja se on aateliselle suuri

häpeä, josta sinun on pestävä itsesi puhtaaksi, muuten sanon
sukulaisuuteni irti sinun ja kaikkien Kowalskien kanssa. Petturi on
heittiötäkin huonompi, ja sellaisen palveleminen on ihan viho
viimeistä!
— Olen palvellut hetmania.
— Ja hetmani palvelee pirua! Nyt sen tiedät!… Sinä olet typerä,

hyvä mies, muista se, äläkä milloinkaan antaudu väittelyyn
kenenkään kanssa, vaan pitele mieluummin minun nuttuni liepeestä
kiinni, niin voi sinusta vielä tulla mies. Kyllä minä olen tässä
maailmassa useamman kuin yhden narrin sillä tavalla pelastanut.
Laukaukset keskeyttivät keskustelun, sillä taistelu kylässä oli juuri
alkanut. Sitten ne lakkasivat, mutta huutoa ja melua kuului heidän
syrjäiseen paikkaansa saakka koivikon laidassa.
— Nyt on Michal jo työssä, — virkkoi Zagloba. — Hän ei ole

suuren suuri, mutta puree kuin käärme. Kyllä hän vielä pieksää noita
merentakaisia paholaisia kuin herneitä vain, sen saat nähdä. Siellä
minäkin olisin paljon mieluummin kuin täällä koivikossa nyt
kuuntelemassa, mikä on sinun syysi. Siinä sinun kiitollisuutesi!
Sopiiko sellainen mielestäsi sukulaiselle?
— Mistä minun pitäisi olla kiitollinen?
— Siitä, että petturi ei saanut kyntää sinulla kuin härällä, vaikka

oletkin siihen erittäin sopiva: typerä ja voimakas, ymmärrätkös? Hei-
hei! Siellä otellaan yhä tulisemmin! Kuuletko? Ne ovat ruotsalaisia,
jotka mörisevät kuin vasikat laitumella.
Zagloba kävi hiukan vakavammaksi; hän oli levoton. Mutta

yht'äkkiä hän kysäisi katsoen Roch Kowalskia tuimasti silmiin:
— Kenen soisit voittavan?
— Meikäläisten, tietysti.
— Kas vain! Miks'ei ruotsalaisten?
— Siksi, että heitä minäkin mielelläni rökittäisin. Ken on

meikäläinen, se on meikäläinen!
— Omatuntosi rupeaa jo heräämään… Mutta kuinka sinä saatoit

omaa lihaa ja vertasi ruotsalaisten käsiin raastaa?
— Olin saanut käskyn.
— Mutta nyt sinulla ei ole sellaista käskyä?
— Ei olekaan…
— Sinun täytyy nyt tehdä mitä eversti Wolodyjowski käskee.
— Niin täytyykin.
— Ja hän käskee sinun ensi töiksesi luopua Radziwillista ja ruveta

palvelemaan isänmaatasi.
— Hä? — pääsi Kowalskilta, jonka käsi rupesi korvallista

raaputtamaan.
— Olet saanut käskyn! — jyrisi Zagloba.
— Tottelen! — tokaisi Roch.
— Hyvä on. Ensi tilaisuudessa täytyy sinun antaa ruotsalaisille

selkään.
— Käsky on käsky, — sanoi Kowalski ja huokasi niin syvään kuin

raskas kivi olisi pudonnut hänen rinnaltaan.
Zagloba oli myöskin tyytyväinen, sillä hänellä oli omat aikeensa

herra Kowalskiin nähden. He alkoivat kuunnella taistelun menoa, ja
he kuuntelivat siinä yhdessä istuen pitkän aikaa, ennenkuin kaikki
hiljeni.
Zagloba oli käynyt levottomammaksi.
— Kunhan meidän vain ei olisi käynyt huonosti?

— Kuinka voi setä, joka on vanha soturi, mitään sellaista ajatella?
Jos olisi huonosti käynyt, niin tästä olisivat sivu paenneet…
— Se on totta, se… Kyllä sinussa on sentään järkeä…
— Eikö setä kuule kavioitten kapsetta? Hitaasti ajavat. Ovat kaiketi

lyöneet ruotsalaiset viimeiseen mieheen.
— Kunpa vain olisivat meidän miehiä? Ajanko katsomaan? Mitä

arvelet?
Ja herra Zagloba ripusti miekkansa vyöhön, otti pistolin käteensä

ja läksi. Pian hän äkkäsikin mustan jonon, joka hitaasti lähestyi tietä
pitkin. Joukosta kuului ääniä.
Joukon etupäässä ajoi muutamia miehiä, jotka olivat joutuneet

keskenään äänekkääseen keskusteluun. Zagloba tunsi
Wolodyjowskin äänen, joka sanoi:
— Urhoollisia poikia! En tiedä, millaista jalkaväki on, mutta

ratsuväki on varmasti oivallista!
Zagloba kannusti hevostaan.
— Mitä teille kuuluu? Mitä teille kuuluu? Aloin jo tulla

kärsimättömäksi ja lähteä leikkiin mukaan… Onko kukaan
haavoittunut?
— Kaikki voivat hyvin, Jumalan kiitos! — vastasi Michal-herra. —

Mutta parikymmentä kelpo soturia olemme menettäneet.
— Entä ruotsalaiset?
— Maassa kuin heinää…

— Oletpa, hyvä mies, tainnut huitoa siellä kuin susi karsinassa.
Mutta sopiko mielestäsi jättää minut, vanha mies, tänne vahtiin? Olin
melkein poissa suunniltani… niin teki mieleni ruotsalaisen lihaa.
Raakana olisin ne syönyt.
— Saat kyllä paistetultakin, sillä palaneita on myöskin.
— Syökööt koirat ne! Entä otitteko vankeja?
— Ratsumestarin ja seitsemän muuta miestä.
— Mitä aiot tehdä heille?
— Tekisi mieleni hirtättää ne, kun hyökkäsivät avuttoman kylän

kimppuun kuin rosvot ja niin julmasti kyläläisiä surmasivat… Mutta
Jan sanoi, että sitä ei pidä tehdä.
— Kuulkaahan, hyvät herrat, mitä mieleeni juolahti. Hirttää heitä ei

saa, vaan heidät on laskettava vapaiksi.
— Miksi niin?
— Te tunnette minut soturina, nyt tulette tuntemaan myös

valtiomiehenä. Me päästämme ruotsalaiset vapaiksi, mutta emme
sano, keitä olemme. Sen toki sanomme, että olemme radziwillilaisia
ja että olemme hetmanin käskystä tuhonneet tämän osaston niinkuin
kaikille muillekin tulemme tekemään, koska hetmani on vain
olevinaan ruotsalaisten puolella. Täten me vahingoitamme kovasti
hetmanin asiaa. Jos minun ajatukseni antaa vähääkään perää teidän
voitollenne, niin kasvakoon minulle häntä kuin hevoselle. Kiejdany
on kaukana Birźestä ja Radziwill on vielä kauempana Pontus de la
Gardien luota. Saattaaksemme petturit ja rosvot keskenään riitaan,
koska se on vain hyödyksi isänmaalle.
— Neuvo on hyvä ja voiton arvoinen! — sanoi Stankiewicz.
— Teillä on kanslerin järki, — lisäsi Mirski.
— Juuri niin teemme, — sanoi Michal Wolodyjowski. —

Huomenna päästän miehet vapaiksi, mutta tänään en tahdo tietää
siitä sen enempää, sillä minua väsyttää julmasti… Aukealla tiellä oli
kuuma kuin pätsissä… Uh! Käsivarteni ovat ihan hervottomat…
Upseeri ei voisi missään tapauksessa lähteä tänään, hän sai haavan
poskeensa.
— Mutta kuinka me selvitämme heille tämän kaiken? — kysyi Jan

Skrzetuski.
— Olen sitä asiaa kyllä ajatellut, — vastasi Zagloba. — Kowalski

sanoi minulle, että hänen rakuunoittensa joukossa on pari
preussilaista miestä, jotka osaavat kyllä saksaa. Selittäkööt he
ruotsalaisille, jotka kaiketi myöskin sen verran saksaa osaavat, sillä
ovathan he olleet jo niin monta vuotta Saksanmaalla. Kowalski on
meidän sekä sielultaan että ruumiiltaan. Meillä tulee olemaan
hänestä vielä paljon hyötyä.
— Hyvä on! — virkkoi Wolodyjowski. — Olkoon joku herroista

hyvä ja ottakoon asian huolekseen, sillä minä olen niin väsyksissä,
etten pysty mihinkään. Olen jo ilmoittanut väelle, että viivymme tässä
koivikossa aamuun saakka. Kylästä tuodaan syötävää… ja nyt
nukkumaan.
— Hyvät herrat, — virkkoi Zagloba, — tuolla koivikon takana on

heinälato. Menkäämme sinne kunnollisesti nukkumaan matkan
varalta…
Emmehän tänne enää palaja, koska herra Sapiehan kanssa nyt
käymme
Radziwillia vastaan.
VIIDES LUKU.
Liettuassa alkoi nyt kansalaissota. Onnettomuuden määrää lisäsivät

ulkonaiset viholliset ja yhä itsepintaisempi sota ukrainalaisia vastaan.
Liettuan säännöllisissäkin oloissa perin pienet joukot jakautuivat

nyt kahteen leiriin. Toiset, pääasiallisesti muukalaiset joukot, jäivät
Radziwillin puolelle, toiset, jotka olivat julistaneet hetmanin petturiksi,
vastustivat ase kädessä liittoa Ruotsin kanssa, mutta olivat ilman
johtajaa ja toimintasuunnitelmaa. Näitten johtajaksi olisi mainiosti
sopinut Vitebskin vojevoda, mutta hän oli paraikaa kiinni Bychowia
puolustamassa eikä sentähden voinut asettua johtamaan liikettä
Radziwillia vastaan.
Sillävälin Liettuan viholliset, jotka pitivät jo maata omanaan,

alkoivat keskenään vaihtaa vihamielisiä ajatuksia. Heidän
eripuraisuutensa olisi voinut pelastaa valtakunnan eheänä, mutta
ennenkuin välit heidän kesken kehittyivät aseelliseksi otteluksi,
vallitsi Liettuassa hirvittävä sekamelska. Radziwill, joka oli
laskelmissaan sotajoukkoon nähden pettynyt, päätti väkivalloin
pakottaa maan kuuliaisuuteen.
Tuskin oli herra Wolodyjowski Klawanin taistelun jälkeen päässyt
joukkoineen Poniewieźiin saakka, kun hän sai kuulla Mirskin ja
Stankiewiczin lippukuntien hajaantumisesta. Osa näistä
lippukunnista oli väkisin liitetty Radziwillin joukkoihin, loput joko lyöty
maahan tai hajoitettu kaikkiin tuuliin. Jäännöksiä harhaili yhä pienin
joukoin metsiä ja kyliä pitkin etsien paikkaa, minne asettua suojaan
hetmanin kostolta.
Joka päivä liittyi pakolaisia Wolodyjowskin joukkoihin tuoden

tietoja asiain kehityksestä.
Tärkein näistä tiedoista oli se, joka kertoi Podlasiessa,

Bielastokissa ja Tykocinissa alkaneesta vakituisen sotaväen
kapinasta. Moskovalaisten joukkojen vallattua Vilnon näitten
joukkojen oli määrä puolustaa rajaa, mutta saatuaan kuulla hetmanin
petoksesta ne tekivät liiton everstien Horotkiewiczin ja Jakob
Kmicicin, Radziwillin uskotun, Andrzejn sedän, johdolla.
Jälkimmäisen nimi herätti kaikkialla sotilaspiireissä vihaa. Juuri hän
oli ollut ennen muita syypää Stankiewiczin ja Mirskin lippukuntain
perikatoon, sillä hän oli armotta ammuttanut kaikki vangiksi
joutuneet. Hetmani luotti häneen sokeasti ja oli äskettäin lähettänyt
hänet Niewiarowskin lippukuntaa vastaan, joka ei ollut seurannut
everstinsä esimerkkiä eikä osoittanut kuuliaisuutta.
Tästä syystä herra Wolodyjowski kutsui asetoverinsa neuvotteluun

ja sanoi heille:
— Mitä sanoisitte, hyvät herrat, jos me sen sijaan, että lähtisimme

Bychowiin Vitebskin vojevodan avuksi, rientäisimmekin Podlasieen
liittoon yhtyneitten lippukuntain luo?
— Kuin minun suustani! — sanoi Zagloba. — Siellä tulemme
olemaan kuin kotona.
— Pakolaiset ovat kertoneet kuulleensa, — selitti Jan Skrzetuski,

— että kuningas oli käskenyt muutamia lippukuntia palaamaan
Ukrainasta ja vastustamaan ruotsalaisten hyökkäystä. Jos se
toteutuu, niin me voisimme liittyä vanhoihin tovereihimme, sen sijaan
että täällä ajelehdimme…
— Niin teemme! — virkkoivat Osklerka ja Stankiewicz
— Mutta se ei ole mikään helppo tehtävä, — selitti pienikasvuinen

ritari. — Podlasieen voi päästä ainoastaan hetmanin sormien
lomitse. Koettakaamme kuitenkin. Jos sitäpaitsi sattuisin matkalla
tapaamaan Kmicicin, niin sanoisin hänelle korvaan pari kolme kovaa
sanaa, joista hänen nahkansa varmaan sinistyisi…
— Sen hän on arvoinenkin! — tokaisi Mirski. — En ihmettele

kovasti sitä, että jotkut vanhat soturit, jotka ikänsä ovat Radziwilleja
palvelleet, ovat nyt hetmanin puolella, mutta se roisto petti vain
oman etunsa ja kunnianhimonsa tähden.
— Siis Podlasieen? — kysyi Oskierka.
— Podlasieen! Podlasieen! — huusivat kaikki kuorossa.
Mutta matka sinne oli vaikea, kuten Wolodyjowski oli

huomauttanut, koska se kulki ihan Kiejdanyn, tuon jalopeuran
pesäpaikan sivuitse.
Tiet ja polut, kaupungit ja kylät olivat Radziwillin hallussa, ja

Kiejdanyn läheisyydessä majaili Kmicic joukkoineen. Hetmani oli
myös saanut tiedon everstien kohtaamisesta, Wolodyjowskin
lippukunnan kapinasta ja Klawanin taistelusta ja oli pakahtua
hirvittävään vihaansa.
Ja hänellä olikin syytä vihoitella jalolla epätoivoissaan, sillä etenkin

viimeksimainittu taistelu oli koonnut hänen päänsä päälle kokonaisen
myrskyn ruotsalaisten tyytymättömyyttä. Vähäistä myöhemmin olivat
näet talonpojat ja aateliset omin päin alkaneet hävittää pienempiä
ruotsalaisia joukko-osastoja, minkä kaiken ruotsalaiset panivat
Radziwillin laskuun. Vangitut upseerit ja sotilaat, jotka taistelun
jälkeen lähetettiin Birźeen, kertoivat siellä ruotsalaiselle
komendantille, että radziwillilainen lippukunta oli hetmanin käskystä
hyökännyt heidän kimppuunsa. Viikon kuluttua saapui sitten
komendantilta kirje ruhtinaalle, ja kymmenen päivän kuluttua itse
Pontus de la Gardie, ruotsalaisten joukkojen ylipäällikkö, kirjoitti:
»Joko teidän ruhtinaallinen ylhäisyytenne on vailla voimia ja

merkitystä tai tahtoo pettää. Jos näin on, niin te pian saatte
rangaistuksenne, jollette kadu ja nöyryydellä ja luottamuksella
sovita syntejänne…»
Radziwill lähetti heti kuriireja selittämään, miten kaikki oli

tapahtunut, mutta hänen ylpeä sielunsa oli haavoittunut. Hän, jonka
sana vielä äskettäin oli ollut tämän Ruotsia paljon suuremman maan
lakina, hän, joka puolella omaisuudellaan olisi voinut ostaa kaikki
Ruotsin ylhäiset, hän, joka vastusti itse kuningasta ja piti itseään
monarkin arvoisena, hän oli nyt pakotettu kuuntelemaan ruotsalaisen
kenraalin nuhteita ja nöyryyttävää moitetta. Tosin kyllä tuo kenraali
oli kuninkaan sukulainen, mutta eihän itse kuningaskaan ollut
mikään muu kuin Jan Kasimirille oikeuden ja veren perusteella
kuuluvan valtaistuimen anastaja!
Ennen kaikkea kohdistui hetmanin raivo niihin, jotka olivat syypäät
tähän nöyryytykseen, ja hän vannoi tallaavansa maahan herra
Wolodyjowskin, kaikki tämän everstit ja koko laudalaisen
lippukunnan. Ja hetmani ryhtyi hyökkäykseen heitä vastaan, ja
niinkuin metsästäjät ympäröivät hongikon piirittääkseen suden
pesän, niin hänkin piiritti vihollisensa ja alkoi ahdistaa heitä
hellittämättä.
Silloin saapui hänen tietoonsa viesti, että Kmicic oli lyönyt

Niewiarowskin lippukunnan ja liittänyt osan vankeja omiin
joukkoihinsa.
Hetmani vaati heti lähettämään osan sotavoimista hänelle.
»Miehet», — kirjoitti hän Kmicicille, — »joitten elämästä sinä niin

huolehdit, etenkin Wolodyjowski ja ne muut kuljeksivat, ovat
karanneet, matkalla Birźeen. Lähetin tahallani heidän matkaansa
kaikkein typerimmän upseerin, jotteivät he voisi häntä käännyttää,
mutta hänkin joko petti tai tuli petetyksi. Nyt on Wolodyjowskin
hallussa koko laudalainen lippukunta, ja häneen yhtyy paljon
karkureita ja pakolaisia. Klawanyn luona he löivät 120-miehisen
ruotsalaisen joukkueen ja levittivät sitten huhua, että se tehtiin
muka meidän käskystämme, minkä johdosta meidän ja Pontus de
la Gardien välillä on ilkeätä väärinkäsitystä. Koko asia voi ajautua
karille noitten petturien tähden, jotka ilman sinun vastalausettasi
olisivat varmasti päänsä menettäneet. Näin meidän
hyväsydämisyytemme nyt palkitaan. Mutta toivomme kuitenkin, että
he kohta saavat ansaitun palkkansa. Olemme saaneet tietää, että
miekankantaja Billewiczin luo kokoontuu aatelisia, jotka ovat
salaliitossa meitä vastaan; heidän toimensa on tuhottava. Lähetä
meille ratsuväkeä, mutta pidätä Kiejdanyssa jalkaväki
puolustamassa linnaa ja kaupunkia, sillä niiltä pettureilta voi
odottaa mitä hyvänsä. Aja itse, otettuasi myötä muutamia
kymmeniä ratsumiehiä, Billewiczien luo ja tuo miekankantaja ja
hänen sukulaisneitonsa sinne. Tämä ei ole tarpeen ainoastaan
sinun, vaan meidänkin tähtemme, sillä se, jonka käsissä he ovat,
on Laudan herra; Wolodyjewskin esimerkkiä seuraten nousevat
näet Laudan aateliset meitä vastaan. Sinun sedälläsi Jakobilla on
suuri vaikutusvalta heihin; kirjoita hänelle, jos luulet kirjeellä voivasi
taivuttaa hänet meidän puolellemme.
Pysyen sinulle yhä suosiollisena toivotamme sinulle Jumalan

armoa.»
Luettuaan kirjeen Kmicic sydämestään iloitsi, että everstien oli

onnistunut paeta ruotsalaisten käsistä — kunpa he voisivat paeta
Radziwillin satimesta! — mutta siitä huolimatta hän täytti ruhtinaan
kaikki käskyt.
»Minä en tule käyttämään väkivaltaa muussa kuin äärimmäisessä

tapauksessa», — ajatteli hän, — »enkä millään muotoa loukkaa
Oleńkaa. Sitäpaitsi, se ei ole minun tahtoni, vaan ruhtinaan käsky!
Oleńka vastaanottaa minut epäystävällisesti, sen tiedän, mutta aikaa
voittaen hän tulee vakuutetuksi vilpittömistä aikomuksistani, etten ole
isänmaata vastaan, vaan päinvastoin sen puolesta ja sentähden
palvelen Radziwillia.»
Näissä mietteissään hän ahersi varustusten vahvistamiseksi

Kiejdanyssa, josta oli tuleva hänen Oleńkansa asuinkaupunki.
Sillävälin herra Wolodyjowski vältteli hetmania, ja hetmani ajoi

Wolodyjowskia takaa kuin myrsky. Michal-herralla ei ollutkaan liikoja
tiloja, sillä Birźestä läheni huomattavia ruotsalaisia joukkoja etelää
kohti, idässä oli tsaarin väkeä ja Kiejdanyn tiellä väijyili hetmani.
Herra Zagloba oli tyytymätön tällaiseen asiain tilaan ja kääntyi yhä
useammin Wolodyjowskin puoleen kysyen:
— Michal Wolodyjowski, Herran nimessä, lyömmekö läpi vai

emmekö?
— Siitä ei kannata puhua! — vastasi pienikasvuinen ritari. —

Tiedäthän, etten ole arkalasta kotoisin ja että isken vaikka itse
paholaiseen… mutta hetmanin kanssa en pidä puoliani. Itse sanoit,
että me olemme ahvenia, mutta hän hauki. Teen kaikkeni
lyödäksemme läpi, mutta jos avoin taistelu tulee kysymykseen, niin
sanon suoraan, että hän nujertaa meidät.
— Ja käskee hirttämään ja antamaan koirille! Hyvä Jumala,

ennemmin olisin kenen muun käsissä hyvänsä kuin Radziwillin!…
Eiköhän meidän olisi parempi kääntyä herra Sapiehaan päin?
— Nyt se on jo myöhäistä, sillä sekä hetmanni että ruotsalaiset

joukot sulkevat meiltä tien.
— Piruko minut sai yllyttämään Skrzetuskeja Radziwillin luo! —

huudahti
Zagloba epätoivoissaan.
Mutta Michal Wolodyjowski ei menettänyt toivoaan; aateliset ja

talonpojatkin tekivät hänelle selkoa hetmanin liikkeistä, — kaikki
kääntyivät pois Radziwillista. Wolodyjowski luovaili parhaansa
mukaan, ja siinä hän olikin taitava, sillä hän oli nuoruudesta saakka
ollut mukana retkillä ja kahakoissa tataareja ja kasakoita vastaan
taisteltaessa. Jo ruhtinas Jeremin armeijassa hän oli tullut
kuuluisaksi yllättävistä hyökkäyksistään ja nopeista liikkeistään.
Suljettuna nyt muutaman penikulman laajuiselle alalle hän vältteli
itsepintaisesti avoimia taisteluita ja väsytti Radziwillin joukkoja, joita
hän silloin tällöin näykki niinkuin susi takaa-ajavia koiria.
Mutta kun Kmicicin ratsuväkeä saapui, niin hetmani sulki sillä

kaikki mahdolliset pujahduspaikat ja läksi itse tarkkaamaan, kuinka
nuotan molemmat kyljet yhtyivät..
Se tapahtui Niewiaźan luona. Mieleszkon ja Ganchoffin joukot ja

pari lippukuntaa ratsuväkeä ruhtinaan itsensä johdolla muodostivat
ikäänkuin jousen, jonka jänteenä oli joki. Wolodyjowski joukkonsa
kanssa oli jousen kaaren sisäpuolella. Yksi kohta oli tosin avoin,
mutta siinä oli esteenä soinen joki, jonka toisella rannalla oli
skottilaisia ja pari sataa Radziwillin kasakkaa ja sitäpaitsi kuusi
kenttätykkiä, jotka oli asetettu niin, että niiden tulen alla yksikään
ihminen ei voinut nousta toiselle rannalle.
Silloin alkoi jousen kaari supistua. Sen keskustaa johti hetmani

itse.
Michal Wolodyjowskin onneksi yö ja myrsky rankkasateineen

häiritsivät hyökkäystä. Piiritettyjen hallussa ei ollut kuin muutama
tynnyrin ala vesikkopensaston peittämää niittymaata Radziwillin
joukkojen puoliympyrän ja jokea vartioivain skottilaisten välillä.
Aamun tullen, kun päivän sarastus tuskin valaisi puitten latvoja,

hyökkäsivät ruhtinaan joukot joelle saakka, mutta pysähtyivät siihen
hämmästyneinä.
Wolodyjowski oli kadonnut kuin maan alle, eikä pensastosta

löytynyt ainoatakaan elävää sielua.
Itse hetmanikin ihmetteli kovasti. Mutta kyllä sitten joen
kahluupaikkaa vartioivat upseerit saivat kuulla kunniansa. Vihan
aiheuttama hengenahdistus kävi niin voimakkaasti ruhtinaan
kimppuun, että pelättiin hänen heittävän henkensä. Kaksi upseeria
sai hengellään maksaa Wolodyjowskin katoamisen, mutta vihdoin
Ganchoff sai ruhtinaan vakuutetuksi siitä miten peto oli paennut
satimesta.
Saatiin selville, että Wolodyjowski oli yön pimeyttä ja sadetta

hyväkseen käyttäen ajanut joukkoineen jokeen ja uinut myötävirtaa
ruhtinaan oikean, jokeen saakka ulottuvan sivustan ohi. Muutamat
nähtävästi vatsaa myöten joen saveen takertuneitten hevosten jäljet
osoittivat, missä Wolodyjowski oli noussut oikealle rannalle.
Kauempana näkyneistä jäljistä saattoi päättää, että hän oli täyttä

laukkaa ajanut Kiejdanyyn päin. Tästä hetmani teki heti sen
johtopäätöksen, että hän tahtoi päästä Horotkiewiczin ja Jakob
Kmicicin kanssa yhteyteen.
Mutta kuka tietää, eikö hän Kiejdanyn ohi ajaessaan polttaisi

kaupunkia tai hyökkäisi ryöstämään linnaa?
Kauhea pelko kouristi ruhtinaan sydäntä, sillä suurin osa ruhtinaan

rahastoa ja arvoesineitä oli Kiejdanyssa. Andrzej Kmicicin oli määrä
varustaa kaupunki jalkaväellä, mutta jollei hän sitä ole tehnyt, voi
varustamaton linna helposti joutua rohkean everstin saaliiksi.
Radziwill ei edes epäillyt, että Wolodyjowskilta puuttuisi rohkeutta
hyökätä ruhtinaan hallituskaupunkiin. Ja jos hän oli alkuyöstä
pujahtanut pois, olihan nyt jo ainakin kuuden tunnin matkan päässä.
Joka tapauksessa oli nyt mitä pikimmin riennettävä Kiejdanyn

avuksi. Ruhtinas jätti jalkaväen ja ajaa karahdutti koko ratsuväkensä
kanssa eteenpäin.
Saavuttuaan Kiejdanyyn ruhtinas ei tavannut siellä Kmiciciä.

Kaikki oli rauhallista. Radziwillin käsitys nuoresta everstistään kasvoi
yhä hänen nähdessään tämän toimesta tehdyt vallit ja niillä
kenttätykkejä. Vielä samana päivänä hän tarkasti ne yhdessä
Ganchoffin kanssa ja sanoi illalla tälle:
— Hän on tehnyt ne omin päin ja tehnyt niin hyvin, että täällä voisi
pitkän aikaa puolustautua tykistöltäkin. Jollei se mies taita niskaansa
nuorena, niin varmasti hän vielä pääseekin pitkälle.
Mutta olipa toinen mies, joka herätti ruhtinaassa ihmetystä,

vaikkakin tähän ihmetykseen sekaantui vihaa, sillä se mies oli Michal
Wolodyjowski.
— Pianhan minä tämän kapinan nujertaisin, — selitti hän

Ganchoffille, — jos nuo molemmat olisivat minun käytettävissäni.
Kmicic saattaa olla hurjempi, mutta hänellä ei ole sitä kokemusta
kuin toisella, joka on käynyt Jeremin koulua Dnjeprin takana.
— Teidän ylhäisyytenne, ettekö käske ajamaan häntä takaa? —

kysyi
Ganchoff.
Ruhtinas loi häneen silmäyksen ja virkkoi painostaen sanojaan:
— Teidät lyödään, minut hylätään.
Hetken kuluttua hän lisäsi:
— Täällä on toistaiseksi kaikki rauhallista. Mutta Podlasieen on

meidän lähdettävä tuota pikaa ja tehtävä siellä selvä kaikesta.
— Teidän ylhäisyytenne, — huomautti Ganchoff, — kun me
olemme lähteneet täältä, nousevat kaikki täällä ruotsalaisia vastaan.
— Kutka kaikki?
— Aateliset ja talonpojat. Mutta he eivät tule rajoittumaan

ruotsalaisiin, vaan lyövät toisuskoisetkin, koska pitävät heitä syynä
kaikkeen ja sanovat, että me olemme menneet vihollisen puolelle ja
kutsuneet sen tänne.
— Kysymyksessä on veljemme Boguslaw. En tiedä, tuleeko hän

aikoihin siellä Podlasiessa liittolaisten kanssa.
— Kysymyksessä on Liettua ja sen pitäminen kuuliaisena.
Ruhtinas alkoi astella lattiata pitkin ja virkkoi:
— Jospa saisimme Horotkiewiczin ja Jakob Kmicicin jotenkuten

käsiimme… He saattavat löytää maatiloilleni, ryöstää ja hävittää ne
jättämättä kiveä kiven päälle.
— Eiköhän olisi ryhdyttävä neuvottelemaan kenraali Pontus de la

Gardien kanssa siitä, että hän lähettäisi tänne mahdollisimman
paljon sotaväkeä siksi aikaa kuin me olemme Podlasiessa?
— Pontuksen kanssa?… — Ei ikänä! — vastasi Radziwill veren

syöstessä päähän. — Jos kenen kanssa neuvotteluihin ryhdymme,
niin itse kuninkaan. Meidän ei tarvitse välittää palvelijoista silloin, kun
voimme kääntyä itse isännän puoleen. Jos kuningas antaisi
Pontukselle käskyn lähettää käytettäväkseni kaksituhatta
ratsumiestä, niin se vielä kävisi päinsä… mutta Pontusta minä en
ikänä tule pyytämään. Pitäisi lähettää joku kuninkaan luo aloittamaan
neuvotteluja.

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Climate Change Adaptation and Development Transforming

Sparking Innovation Lessons Learned 1st Edition Fifty

Happiness and economic growth lessons from developing

Climate Adaptation and Resilience Across Scales From

Everything Must Change Philosophical lessons from lockdown

Climate Change and Crop Production CABI Climate Change

Global Climate Change and Human Health From Science to

The European Union as a Leader in International Climate

Success in the international negotiations on mitigating climate change seems

Andrea Prutsch is an adaptation policy advisor in the Department of

Torsten Grothmann is senior scientist in the Department of Ecological

Sabine McCallum is Head of Department of Environmental Impact Assessment

Inke Schauser is an adaptation policy advisor in the Department of Climate

Rob Swart is coordinator of international climate change adaptation research at

Edited by Andrea Prutsch,

List of figures xii

1 Guiding principles for good adaptation and structure of this book 3

2 Facing the specific challenges of adaptation 7

3 Adaptation research: where do we stand and where should

3.2 Theoretical concepts in IVA research 15

4 Adaptation policy initiatives in Europe 24

5 Explore potential climate change impacts and vulnerabilities

6 Initiate adaptation, ensure commitment and management 67

6.2 Building commitment for adaptation: The right place at the

7 Build knowledge and awareness 89

8 Identify and cooperate with relevant stakeholders 119

8.4 Lessons learned for stakeholder engagement 145

9 Explore a wide spectrum of adaptation options 153

10 Prioritise adaptation options 174

11 Work with uncertainties 201

11.2 Robust decision-making? Managing uncertainties in adapting

12 Avoid maladaptation 224

13 Modify existing and develop new policies, structures and

14 Monitor and evaluate systematically 272

15 Adaptation experiences in other industrialised countries and

16 Lessons learned from practical cases of adaptation to climate

5.1.1 Framework of the vulnerability assessment 44

12.2.1 The green roof of the Basel Exhibition Hall 237

1.1 Phases of adaptation processes and guiding principles for good

10.1.3 Traditional and new decision support tools for evaluating

Rob B. Dellink Assistant Professor, Environmental Economics and Natural

Megan Gawith Research Scientist, Environment Agency, UK

Louise Grøndahl Policy Advisor, Task Force on Climate Change Adaptation,

Torsten Grothmann Senior Scientist, Department Ecological Economics,

Mike Harley Director, Climate Resilience Ltd, UK

Tristan Hatton-Ellis Senior Freshwater Ecologist, Natural Resources Wales, UK

Mark Howden Chief Research Scientist, CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship

Ekko C. van Ierland Professor, Environmental Economics and Natural

André Jol Head of Group Vulnerability and Adaptation, European

Susanna Kankaanpää Climate Specialist, Helsinki Region Environmental

Andrea Knierim Professor, University of Hohenheim, Germany

Jaap Kwadijk Director of Science, Deltares, the Netherlands

Kelly Levin Senior Associate, World Resources Institute, US

Andreas Lieberum Head of the Sustainability Center Bremen, c/o econtur

Lasse Peltonen Research Coordinator, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE),

Bruno Schädler Senior Researcher, Institute of Geography, University of Berne,

Inke Schauser Adaptation Policy Advisor, Department of Climate Change