TABLE 1.

World Bank Commodity Price Forecasts Released: October 29, 2024

Differences in levels
Percent change from
from April 2024
previous year
forecasts
Commodity Unit 2022 2023 2024f 2025f 2026f 2024f 2025f 2026 2024f 2025f
INDEXES (in nominal U.S. dollars, 2010=100)
Total 1/ 142.5 108.0 104.3 99.0 97.3 -3.4 -5.1 -1.7 -1.0 -2.6
Energy 2/ 152.6 106.9 100.8 94.5 92.5 -5.8 -6.2 -2.1 -3.2 -5.5
Non-Energy 122.1 110.2 111.6 108.2 106.9 1.3 -3.1 -1.2 3.7 3.3
Agriculture 119.3 110.9 113.2 108.4 107.9 2.1 -4.2 -0.5 3.8 3.6
Beverages 106.3 107.8 170.7 155.0 150.8 58.4 -9.2 -2.7 38.8 39.2
Food 138.1 125.4 114.8 110.2 109.8 -8.5 -4.0 -0.4 -3.7 -3.7
Oils and Meals 145.2 118.9 105.3 101.2 102.0 -11.4 -3.9 0.7 -4.9 -3.7
Grains 150.4 133.0 112.9 107.6 107.9 -15.2 -4.6 0.2 -5.1 -6.0
Other food 117.7 127.2 129.1 124.4 121.9 1.5 -3.7 -2.0 -0.7 -1.8
Raw Materials 80.3 77.1 80.1 80.4 81.4 3.9 0.4 1.2 4.3 3.3
Timber 80.1 79.1 80.2 81.9 83.2 1.3 2.1 1.6 1.9 1.8
Other Raw Materials 80.5 74.9 80.1 78.9 79.4 6.9 -1.5 0.7 7.0 4.9
Fertilizers 235.7 153.5 116.9 115.2 117.1 -23.9 -1.4 1.6 -3.3 2.3
Metals and Minerals 3/ 115.0 104.0 107.7 106.8 103.7 3.6 -0.9 -2.9 4.3 2.7
Base Metals 4/ 122.4 109.0 115.6 116.5 113.5 6.1 0.8 -2.6 5.7 5.0
Precious Metals 5/ 136.8 147.3 177.6 178.0 174.3 20.5 0.2 -2.1 18.7 21.2

PRICES (in nominal U.S. dollars)

Energy
Coal, Australia $/mt 344.9 172.8 137.0 120.0 105.0 -20.7 -12.4 -12.5 12.0 10.0
Crude oil, Brent $/bbl 99.8 82.6 80.0 73.0 72.0 -3.2 -8.8 -1.4 -4.0 -6.0
Natural gas, Europe $/mmbtu 40.3 13.1 10.8 11.5 10.5 -17.6 6.5 -8.7 1.3 1.0
Natural gas, U.S. $/mmbtu 6.4 2.5 2.2 3.4 3.7 -13.3 54.5 8.8 -0.2 -0.1
Liquefied natural gas, Japan $/mmbtu 18.4 14.4 13.0 13.5 12.5 -9.6 3.8 -7.4 0.5 0.0

Non-Energy
Agriculture
Beverages
Cocoa $/kg 2.39 3.28 6.90 6.00 5.90 110.3 -13.0 -1.7 1.90 2.00
Coffee, Arabica $/kg 5.63 4.54 5.45 5.00 4.80 20.0 -8.3 -4.0 1.10 0.60
Coffee, Robusta $/kg 2.29 2.63 4.50 4.20 3.90 71.3 -6.7 -7.1 1.00 1.40
Tea, average $/kg 3.05 2.74 3.10 3.15 3.20 13.1 1.6 1.6 0.30 0.40

Food
Oils and Meals
Coconut oil $/mt 1,635 1,075 1,460 1,550 1,400 35.8 6.2 -9.7 275 450
Groundnut oil $/mt 2,203 2,035 1,770 1,750 1,700 -13.0 -1.1 -2.9 -130 -100
Palm oil $/mt 1,276 886 925 860 850 4.3 -7.0 -1.2 20 35
Soybean meal $/mt 548 541 445 435 444 -17.8 -2.2 2.1 -35 -25
Soybean oil $/mt 1,667 1,119 1,030 1,020 1,053 -7.9 -1.0 3.2 -100 -130
Soybeans $/mt 675 598 455 430 440 -23.9 -5.5 2.3 -45 -45

Grains
Barley $/mt … … 186 185 184 … -0.5 -0.5 -9 0
Maize $/mt 319 253 187 185 188 -26.0 -1.1 1.6 -13 -11
Rice, Thailand, 5% $/mt 437 554 598 530 518 8.0 -11.4 -2.3 3 -20
Wheat, U.S., HRW $/mt 430 340 270 265 268 -20.7 -1.9 1.1 -20 -20

Other Food
Bananas, U.S. $/kg 1.49 1.60 1.30 1.25 1.20 -18.6 -3.8 -4.0 -0.40 -0.30
Beef $/kg 5.62 4.90 5.70 5.90 5.91 16.3 3.5 0.2 0.50 0.60
Chicken $/kg 1.68 1.53 1.42 1.40 1.38 -7.4 -1.4 -1.4 -0.10 -0.10
Oranges $/kg 0.92 1.57 2.20 1.70 1.58 39.8 -22.7 -7.3 0.50 0.20
Shrimp $/kg 13.51 10.19 8.60 9.00 9.50 -15.6 4.7 5.6 -0.90 -1.00
Sugar, World $/kg 0.41 0.52 0.45 0.46 0.46 -12.9 2.2 -0.2 0.00 0.00

Raw Materials
Timber
Logs, Africa $/cum 369 379 380 390 395 0.4 2.6 1.3 -10 -5
Logs, S.E. Asia $/cum 228 212 200 210 215 -5.8 5.0 2.4 0 0
Sawnwood, S.E. Asia $/cum 675 678 700 710 720 3.3 1.4 1.4 20 20

Other Raw Materials

Cotton $/kg 2.86 2.09 1.90 2.00 2.05 -9.3 5.3 2.5 -0.30 -0.20
Rubber, TSR20 $/kg 1.54 1.38 1.75 1.80 1.85 26.6 2.9 2.8 0.20 0.20
Tobacco $/mt 4,270 5,016 5,350 4,900 4,800 6.7 -8.4 -2.0 1050 650

Fertilizers
DAP $/mt 772 550 560 510 505 1.8 -8.9 -1.0 -40 -40
Phosphate rock $/mt 266 322 155 160 165 -51.8 3.2 3.1 -10 -10
Potassium chloride $/mt 863 383 295 290 295 -23.0 -1.7 1.7 -5 0
TSP $/mt 716 480 475 425 425 -1.1 -10.5 0.0 25 45
Urea, E. Europe $/mt 700 358 330 335 340 -7.8 1.5 1.5 -20 10

Metals and Minerals

Aluminum $/mt 2,705 2,256 2,475 2,500 2,600 9.7 1.0 4.0 175 100
Copper $/mt 8,822 8,490 9,250 9,300 8,500 8.9 0.5 -8.6 350 500
Iron ore $/dmt 121.3 120.6 108.0 95.0 90.0 -10.4 -12.0 -5.3 -2 -10
Lead $/mt 2,151 2,136 2,100 2,050 2,100 -1.7 -2.4 2.4 0 0
Nickel $/mt 25,834 21,521 17,000 17,500 18,500 -21.0 2.9 5.7 0 -500
Tin $/mt 31,335 25,938 30,000 32,000 34,000 15.7 6.7 6.3 3,000 4,000
Zinc $/mt 3,481 2,653 2,700 2,600 2,500 1.8 -3.7 -3.8 200 0

Precious Metals
Gold $/toz 1,801 1,943 2,350 2,325 2,250 21.0 -1.1 -3.2 250 275
Silver $/toz 21.8 23.4 28.0 30.0 31.0 19.7 7.1 3.3 3.0 4.0
Platinum $/toz 962 966 1,000 1,050 1,100 3.5 5.0 4.8 0 0

Notes:
1/ The World Bank's commodity total price index is composed of energy and non-energy prices (excluding precious metals), weighted by their share in 2002-04 exports. The energy index's share in the
overall index is 67 percent.
2/ Energy price index includes coal (Australia), crude oil (Brent), and natural gas (Europe, Japan, U.S.).
3/ Base metals plus iron ore.
4/ Includes aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc.
5/ Precious metals are not part of the non-energy index.
f = forecast.
Next update: April 2025

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