Noise Mapping 2024; 11: 20240005

Research Article

Jinlong Xie, Lei Zhu, Hsiao Mun Lee*, and Heow Pueh Lee

Methodologies for the prediction of future

aircraft noise level
https://doi.org/10.1515/noise-2024-0005
received February 11, 2024; accepted April 29, 2024
1 Introduction
Abstract: This study proposed a method to predict the The global air passenger traffic increased by 70.4% from
future aircraft noise level of the international airport by 2010 to 2019 [1]. With the increment of urbanization in
taking Baiyun International Airport (BIA) as an example. various countries, the global urban population is expected
BIA was selected to be studied because it is an important to reach 6 billion people in 2045 (increase about 150%
international aviation hub in China. The third phase expan- compared to 2020) [2], which will significantly increase
sion project of BIA is currently in progress, which is the people’s demand for air travel. However, the increment
largest airport expansion project in China. The method of air passenger traffic in the future will cause more peo-
included the analysis of current operation of the airport, pre- ple’s health to be affected by aircraft noise [3], and more
diction of future operation scenario and operation of the air- airports will face the problem of aircraft noise pollution
port, and predicted future population around the airport. [4]. Thus, it is very important to predict the future noise
Based on the predicted information, this study used CadnaA level of an airport in order to guide the airport develop-
software to construct and analyze the noise maps of BIA ment in a direction that is more beneficial to human
during summer and winter in 2030. The major advancement health.
of this study compared to that of previous research is that this Vogiatzis [5] predicted the aircraft noise level of three
study predicted the noise levels of the airport during summer future scenarios in 2018 based on the historical flight data
and winter separately based on the wind direction of airport
(2004–2008) of Larnaka International Airport. Thereafter,
location, while other research did not take wind direction into
he optimized the noise action plans of the airport based on
consideration. It is found that operation Scenario 1 produces
the prediction results. Josimović et al. [6] predicted the
lower noise pollution level in the future compared to Scenario
noise level of Tivat airport in 2030. The results showed
2 based on the noise exposure results. It is worth mentioning
that the noise level of Tivat airport would not increase
that in 2030 during winter, when the noise level is greater
significantly in the future, which provided technical gui-
than 70 dB, the noise-exposed area and population of BIA
dance for the future development of the airport. Ozkurt [7]
increase by 71.88 and 146.87% (Scenario 1), respectively, com-
predicted the future noise exposure level of Ankara Esen-
pared to current data, which is more serious compared to the
boğa Airport based on the airport operation data in 2012.
growth rate during summer.
The results showed that the noise-exposed population of
Keywords: future aircraft noise, prediction method, CadnaA, the airport would increase four times and seven times in
pollution, noise control 2025 and 2030, respectively. The noise-level prediction data
of Imam Khomeini International Airport in 2020 and 2030
 from Sadr et al. [8] showed that the joint development of
* Corresponding author: Hsiao Mun Lee, Department of Mechanical the airport and residential areas would aggravate the air-
Engineering, National University of Singapore, 9 Engineering Drive 1,
craft noise pollution. Wolfe et al. [9] compared the future
Singapore 117575, Singapore, e-mail: [email protected]
Jinlong Xie: Department of Mechanical Engineering, National University
noise levels of Heathrow Airport and Gatwick Airport in
of Singapore, 9 Engineering Drive 1, Singapore 117575, Singapore, 2030. The results showed that the expansion of the two
e-mail: [email protected] airports in the future would aggravate the impact of air-
Lei Zhu: School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Guangzhou craft noise on residents and the noise pollution level at
University, 230 Wai Huan Xi Road, Guangzhou 510006, P.R. China,
Heathrow Airport would be more serious.
e-mail: [email protected]
Heow Pueh Lee: Department of Mechanical Engineering, National
The research outcomes of these reported studies pro-
University of Singapore, 9 Engineering Drive 1, Singapore 117575, vide valuable suggestions for airport decision makers in
Singapore, e-mail: [email protected] formulating airport development planning. Therefore, it is

Open Access. © 2024 the author(s), published by De Gruyter. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
2  Jinlong Xie et al.

valuable to predict future noise level of the airport. In 2020, future aircraft noise level can be predicted by following all
under the influence of coronavirus disease 2019, the annual the steps that are listed in Section 2.
passenger throughout Baiyun International Airport (BIA)
reached 44 million and ranked first in the world despite
the sudden drop in global flight volume based on 2020 2.1 Current operation of BIA
Guangzhou traffic development report [10]. Thus, BIA was
selected as the study case in the present work due to its high Current operation of BIA was summarized based on the 2-
flight volume compared to other airports. In the previous week flight data (summer: 2021 March 25–March 31, winter:
study [11], we already constructed the noise maps of BIA 2020 December 14–December 20) that are closest to the
during summer and winter. However, as the passenger annual operation condition of BIA. Please refer to Section
traffic of BIA increases from year to year, its current three 2.13 in Xie et al. [11] for more details of the flight data.
runways will not be able to sustain higher passenger traffic Current number and proportion of flights under different
in the future. In 2019, the annual passenger traffic of BIA aircraft tracks at BIA are shown in Table 1. Current opera-
was about 73.38 million people, which was close to the max- tion of BIA during summer and winter is shown in Figures 2
imum designed capacity (80 million people per year) [12]. and 3, respectively. The proportions of takeoff and landing
Thus, in order to sustain the greater demand of passenger flights at BIA are about 51 and 49%, respectively, for both
traffic, the third phase expansion project of BIA was officially summer and winter (Table 1).
launched in 2020 [13]. This expansion will add two runways In addition, the aircraft takeoff tracks of BIA are reg-
and one terminal for BIA in order to meet the passenger ular where BIA will select the runway and takeoff track
traffic demand of 120 million passengers per year in the based on the relative position between the destination and
future [14]. Therefore, the main objective of the current effort the airport, as shown in Figures 2 and 3. For example,
is to use CadnaA software to predict the aircraft noise level of during summer, the aircrafts generally fly to the cities in
BIA in 2030 after the expansion in order to evaluate the future the east, southeast, and northeast of BIA using T-20R-A. The
acoustic environment quality of BIA. aircraft generally fly to the cities in the south and south-
west of BIA using T-20R-B and T-19-C. Current aircraft
takeoff tracks and the corresponding destinations in BIA
2 Methodologies during summer and winter are shown in Tables A1 and A2,
respectively. There is no regular rule for the landing tracks
A low-cost aircraft noise-level prediction method was pro- of BIA, and the proportion of the number of flights on the
posed in this study based on the flight data and details of the tracks of the two landing runways is close to 1:1.
airport expansion project. The technical route of the method
is shown in Figure 1. This route is applicable to other air-
ports. For example, other airports can first summarize their 2.2 Air traffic volume of BIA in 2030
current operation based on the method proposed in Section
2.1 (aircraft takeoff/landing track, etc.). Then, the population On 2020 August 25, “Feasibility Study Report on Phase III
around other airports can be estimated using the same strategy Expansion Project of Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport”
proposed in Section 2.6 (United Nations). Consequently, the [14] issued by the China Airport Planning & Design Institute Co.,

Current operation
of BIA

Air traffic volume

of BIA in 2030
Operation of
BIA in 2030 Noise exposure
Runway layout Noise model Noise map of
of BIA in 2030 (CadnaA BIA in 2030 analysis
Software)
Operation scenarios
of BIA in 2030

Historical Population
Population Data in 2030

Figure 1: Technical route for predicting aircraft noise level of BIA in 2030.
 Methodologies for the prediction of future aircraft noise level  3

Table 1: Number and proportion of flights under current aircraft tracks at BIA

Track s Number Proportion (%) Track w Number Proportion (%)

T-19-A 207 17.1 T-01-A 82 6.8

T-19-B 61 5.0 T-01-B 101 8.3
T-19-C 22 1.8 T-01-C 32 2.6
T-20R-A 256 21.2 T-02L-A 11 0.9
T-20R-B 59 4.9 T-02L-B 137 11.3
T-20R-C 9 0.7 T-02L-C 257 21.2
L-19-A 284 23.5 L-01-A 156 12.9
L-19-B 12 1.0 L-01-B 131 10.8
L-20L-A 237 19.6 L-02R-A 138 11.4
L-20L-B 63 5.2 L-02R-B 166 13.7
Total 1210 100 Total 1212 100

Track s and Trackw are the tracks during summer and winter, respectively. The name of the track consists of three parts. For example, T-20R-A means
the flight takeoff at Runway 20R with track A. L-20L-A means flight lands at Runway 20L with track B. Please refer to Section 2.3 in Xie et al. [11] for
more details of the aircraft tracks.

Ltd. was approved by China National Development and Reform 2.3 Runway layout of BIA in 2030
Commission [15]. Thus, the current airport expansion project is
being carried out based on the contents of the report. The report The expanded BIA will have five runways and three term-
predicted that the air traffic volume of BIA in 2030 (775k sorties, inals [14]. In the present study, the expanded five runways
with a daily average of 2,123 sorties) based on the historical flight were named as 01L/19R, 01R/19L, 02L/20R, 02R/20L, and
data. Table 2 shows the takeoff and landing sorties of BIA from 03/21 based on the runway numbers of Shanghai Pudong
2011 to 2019 and in 2030. International Airport and Atlanta International Airport

N
23.5% 19.6%
A A W E

1.0% B S
B
5.2%
L  19
L  20L

5.0%

To the cities in the To the cities in the northeast,

north, northwest and east and southeast
T  19  B of the airport
west of the airport

17.1% T  19  A
T  20R  C T  20R  A
0.7% 21.2%

T  19  C T  20R  B
4.9%

1.8%

To the cities in the south and southwest of the airport

Figure 2: Current operation of BIA during summer (the dotted line is used to omit some straight landing tracks).
4  Jinlong Xie et al.

N
T o the northwest cities W E
of the airport
S
2.6%
T o the north cities
8.3% of the airport

T  01  B T  01  C

T  01  A
6.8%
11.3%
0.9%
T  02L  B
To the cities in
the west, southwest and T  02L  A
south of the airport
T  02L  C 21.2%

T o the cities in the

northeast, east and
southeast of the airport

L  01
10.8% B L  02R

B 13.7%
A
A
12.9% 11.4%

Figure 3: Current operation of BIA during winter (the dotted line is used to omit some straight landing tracks).

where these airports also have five runways. It should be 2.4 Prediction of the operation scenarios of
emphasized that the expanded Runways 01R/19L, 02L/20R, BIA in 2030
and 02R/20L actually are the runways that renamed from
the original Runways 01/19, 02L/20R, and 02R/20L (see “Feasibility Study Report on Phase III Expansion Project of
Figure 2 in Xie et al. [11]), respectively. The runway layout Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport” [14] indicated
of BIA in 2030 is shown in Figure 4. that after the expansion, three runways of BIA will be
used for flight takeoff and three runways will be used for
flight landing. Therefore, two operation scenarios of BIA in
Table 2: Takeoff and landing sorties of BIA from 2011 to 2019 and in 2030
(*predicted year) [14] 2030, as shown in Figure 5, were predicted based on the
runway spacing after the expansion (Figure 4), the “three
Year Annual Daily takeoff and three landing rule” as mentioned earlier and
2011 349,000 957
the rule of “Regulations on Management of Instrument
2012 373,000 1,022 during Simultaneous Operation of Parallel Runways” [16]
2013 394,000 1,079 (Table A3). It should be noted that these two operation
2014 412,000 1,129 scenarios will be used in both summer and winter. How-
2015 410,000 1,122
ever, the takeoff and landing directions of aircraft during
2016 435,000 1,192
2017 465,000 1,275 summer and winter are different (Figure 5) since the winds
2018 477,000 1,308 during summer and winter are mainly blowing from south
2019 491,000 1,345 and north, respectively. Following are the details of the two
2030* 775,000 2,123 scenarios:
 Methodologies for the prediction of future aircraft noise level  5

N 1) Scenario 1: Runways 01L/19R and 02R/20L are only used

5m W E for landing, Runways 02L/20R and 03/21 are only used

5m
m×4

0m
600m
S for takeoff, and Runway 01R/19L is used for both takeoff
m×4

m×6
3400

and landing, as shown in Figure 5(a).

0m
3600

3800
2) Scenario 2: Runways 01L/19R and 02R/20L are only used

m×6

m
T2

1500
915m
for landing, Runways 02L/20R and 01R/19L are only used

3800
19R

2200
m for takeoff, and Runway 03/21 is used for both takeoff
400m
/19L
01L/

20R and landing, as shown in Figure 5(b).

5m
T1
01R

m×4
02L/

/20L
Therefore, the difference between the two scenarios

3600
T3
02R

only exists in the landing function of Runways 01R/19L

1530
m and 03/21, while the operation modes of other runways
Runway ( current )
are the same.
Runway ( new )
1

T1/T2 Terminal ( current )

03/2

T3 Terminal (new)
2.5 Prediction of the operation of BIA in 2030
Figure 4: Runway layout after the completion of BIA Phase III expansion
project in 2030. It should be take note that, for example, Runway 01L/19R
The operation of BIA in 2030 was predicted based on the
is actually a runway with opposite takeoff and landing directions. It
means the takeoff direction of Runway 01L is from south to north and current operation of BIA (Figures 2 and 3), the predicted
landing direction of Runway 19R is from north to south. operation scenarios of BIA (Figure 5) and the practices of

N
(a)(i) (ii) W E

T2 T2
19R
19R

/19L
/19L

01L/
01L/

20R
20R

T1 T1
01R
01R

02L/
02L/

/20L
/20L

T3 T3
02R
02R

1
1

03/2
03/2

(b)(i) (ii)

T2 T2
19R
19R

/19L
/19L

01L/
01L/

20R
20R

T1 T1
01R
01R

02L/
02L/

/20L
/20L

T3 T3
02R
02R

1
1

03/2
03/2

Figure 5: Two predicted operation scenarios of BIA in 2030 during (i) summer and (ii) winter: (a) Scenario 1 and (b) Scenario 2. The arrow pointing to
the runway indicates the landing, and the arrow facing away from the runway indicates the takeoff.
6  Jinlong Xie et al.

Table 3: Number and proportion of flights under future aircraft tracks at BIA in 2030

Track s Number Proportion (%) Track w Number Proportion (%)

T-19L-A 282 13.2 T-01R 361 17.0

T-19L-B 79 3.8 T-02L 361 17.0
T-20R 361 17.0 T-03 361 17.0
T-21 361 17 L-01L 346 16.3
L-19R 346 16.3 L-02R 346 16.3
L-20L 346 16.3 L-01R (S1) 346 16.3
L-19L (S1) 346 16.3 L-03 (S2) 346 16.3
L-21 (S2) 346 16.3

S1 and S2 are Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. The name of the track consists of three parts as explained in Table 1. If the runway only has one track
(e.g., T-20R), only the first two parts are named. During summer, all tracks are used in both scenarios except L-19L (S1) and L-21 (S2). During winter, all
tracks are used in both scenarios except L-01R (S1) and L-03 (S2).

N
To the cities in all
(a)(i) 16.3%
(ii) directions of the airport W E
17.0%
16.3% S
16.3% 17.0%
L  19L To the cities in the northwest, T  02L
west, southwest and 17.0%
T  01R
L  19R south of the airport T  03
L  20L

3.8%
T2
To the cities in the
T1
T  19L  B northeast, east and
T3 T2
southeast of the airport
To the cities in the T1
T3
north, northwest and
To the cities in the northeast,
west of the airport
east and southeast L  01L
T  19L  A of the airport L  02R
L  01R
13.2% T  20R
T  21 17.0%
17.0% 16.3%
To the cities in all 16.3% 16.3%
directions of the airport

To the cities in all

(b)(i) 16.3% (ii) 17.0% directions of the airport
16.3%
16.3% 17.0%
To the cities in the northwest, T  02L
L  20L
west, southwest and 17.0%
L  19R T  01R
south of the airport T  03
L  21

T2
To the cities in the
T1 northeast, east and
T  19L  B T2
T3 southeast of the airport
T1
To the cities in the T3
north, northwest and
To the cities in the northeast, L  01L
west of the airport
east and southeast
T  19L  A of the airport L  02R

13.2% T  20R L  03
T  21 17.0%
17.0% 16.3%
16.3%
To the cities in all 16.3%
directions of the airport

Figure 6: Operation of BIA in 2030 during (i) summer and (ii) winter under Scenarios (a) 1 and (b) 2.
 Methodologies for the prediction of future aircraft noise level  7

W E

Huashan Town
Huadong Town

Xinya Street
Zhongluotan Town*

Renhe Town

Taihe Town*
Longgui Street
Junhe Street*
Jiahe Street*

Figure 7: Noise-affected administrative regions around BIA. The blue line indicates the boundary between Huadu District and Baiyun District. The
regions in white and yellow fonts belong to Huadu District and Baiyun District, respectively. The administrative regions with * are new added regions
after the airport is expanded (see Figure 2 in Xie et al. [11] for the noise-affected administrative regions before the airport is expanded).

Table 4: Population of Huadu District and Baiyun District from 2011 to Table 5: Population of the nine administrative regions around BIA in
2020 [18] and in 2030 (*predicted year) [19] 2020 [20,21] and 2030 (*predicted year) [19]

Year Huadu district Baiyun district District Region 2020 2030

2011 1,023,500 2,463,900 Huadu Huadong town 176,063 250,414

2012 1,099,600 2,663,000 Huashan town 122,929 174,842
2013 1,168,700 2,814,300 Xinya street 171,899 244,492
2014 1,236,000 2,950,400 Baiyun Renhe Town 211,248 292,114
2015 1,327,000 3,126,500 Longgui street 194,776 269,336
2016 1,422,400 3,218,500 Taihe town 131,793 182,243
2017 1,490,700 3,420,100 Junhe street 172,155 238,056
2018 1,549,200 3,620,000 Jiahe street 175,410 242,557
2019 1,594,500 3,669,500 Zhongluotan town 275,130 380,450
2020 1,650,900 3,759,100
2030* 2,348,000 5,198,200

1) Predict the utilization rate of each runway of BIA in 2030:

other researchers [5,17]. Following are the details of the 51 and 49% of the takeoff and landing flights were
prediction process: equally allocated to the three takeoff and three landing
8  Jinlong Xie et al.

Aircraft 0 5 10 km
track L WECPN (dB): 70 75 80 85 90
(a)(i) N (ii) N
W E W E
S S

(b)(i) N (ii) N
W E W E
S S

Figure 8: Noise map of BIA in 2030 during (i) summer and (ii) winter under scenarios (a) 1 and (b) 2.

runways after the airport expansion based on the cur- runway (except Runway 19L) was able to be predicted
rent operation of BIA (Section 2.1), as shown in Table 3. based on the current track of BIA (Figures 2 and 3), as
2) Predict the aircraft track of BIA in 2030 and the propor- shown in Figure 6. The ratio of the number of flights on
tion of flights per track: in 2030, only one track of each the two tracks of Runway 19L (T-19L-A: 13.2% and T-19L-

Table 6: Noise exposure analysis of BIA in 2030

LWECPN > 70 dB LWECPN > 75 dB LWECPN > 80 dB LWECPN > 85 dB LWECPN > 90 dB

Summer Scenario 1 Area (km2 ) 135.848 69.525 30.635 12.413 4.943

Population 466,843 179,171 26,262 1,893 0
Scenario 2 Area (km2 ) 138.165 66.418 30.135 12.295 4.905
Population 497,153 179,225 25,049 4,196 80
Winter Scenario 1 Area (km2 ) 134.730 67.238 28.590 11.670 4.540
Population 551,167 228,400 60,915 10,998 0
Scenario 2 Area (km2 ) 138.198 64.663 28.4 11.633 4.535
Population 649,545 193,019 46,175 10,374 0
 Methodologies for the prediction of future aircraft noise level  9

(a) km 2 k (b) km 2 k
160 600 160 750
155 Scenario 1 155 Scenario 1
700
150 Scenario 2 550 150 Scenario 2
649.545
145 145 650
140 138.165 497.153 500 140 138.198
135.848 134.730 600
135 466.843 135
551.167
130 450 130 550
125 125
500
120 400 120
115 115 450
110 350 110
400
105 105
100 300 100 350
Area Population Area Population

Figure 9: Total area and population of BIA that affected by the noise level (LWECPN ) greater than 70 dB in 2030 during (a) summer and (b) winter.

B: 3.8%) was calculated based on the current track and found that the average annual population growths of Huadu
the predicted runway utilization rate, as shown in District and Baiyun District in recent 10 years are 69,700
Figure 6(i). As other runways have only one track, the peoples and 143,900 peoples, respectively. Population of
proportion of flight number of other tracks (takeoff Huadu District and Baiyun District in 2030 (Table 4) were
track: 17.0%, landing track is 16.3%) were obtained predicted based on the population data in recent 10 years
based on the predicted runway utilization rate, as and the estimation method from United Nations [19].
shown in Figure 6. In this study, four noise-affected administrative regions
3) Predict the aircraft track operation of BIA in 2030: the (totally nine regions) were added based on the preliminary
aircraft track operation of BIA in 2030 (Figure 6) was pre- simulation results (compared Figure 7 and Figure 2 in Xie
dicted based on the rule of the current track (Figures 2 and et al. [11]). It is found that that the population growth rates of
3). Consequently, the takeoff track of BIA in 2030 will Huadu District and Baiyun District are 42.23 and 38.28%,
operate regularly. For example, during summer (Figure respectively, by comparing their predicted population in
6(i)), the takeoff track (T-21) of Runway 21 on the east 2030 and population in 2020 (Table 4). Then, the population
side of BIA is responsible for flights to the cities in the of the nine noise-affected administrative regions around BIA
northeast, east, and southeast of the airport. There is no in 2030 was calculated based on these grow rates, as shown
regular rule for the landing tracks of BIA in 2030. in Table 5. Finally, population densities of the nine admin-
4) Proportion of aircraft types of BIA in 2030: the propor- istrative regions in 2030 were calculated as shown in
tion of different aircraft types on each track in 2030 was Table A4.
assumed to be the same with the present proportion.
5) Meteorological data of BIA in 2030: the meteorological
data (average temperature, humidity, etc.) during summer
and winter of 2030 were assumed to be consistent with the 3 Results and discussion
current data.
3.1 Comparison between the noise exposure
levels of the two operation scenarios

2.6 Prediction of the population around BIA CadnaA software was used to construct noise maps based
in 2030 on the two operation scenarios of BIA in 2030, as shown in
Figure 8, using the prediction methodologies and informa-
BIA is located at the junction of two municipal districts tion that are presented in Section 2. The details of the air-
(Huadu District and Baiyun District), as shown in Figure 7. craft noise map construction steps can be found in the
The total population of Huadu District and Baiyun District in study of Xie et al. [11]. The data in Table 6 and Figures 9
recent 10 years (2011–2020) is shown in Table 4 [18]. It is and 10 were extracted from the noise maps in Figure 8.
10  Jinlong Xie et al.

Runway Scenario 1 (2030) Scenario 2 (2030)

(a) N
Mountain area
W E
S
Human
activity area

L WECPN = 70 dB

0 3 6 km
(b) N
W E
S

Renhe Town
2
3940 people/km

Junhe Street
12023 people/km
2 L WECPN = 70 dB

Longgui Street
2
10084 people/km

Jiahe Street
0 3 6 km 24751 people/km 2

Figure 10: Comparison of the contours of noise-affected area of the two operation scenarios in 2030 during (a) summer and (b) winter (darker color
represents the greater population density).
 Methodologies for the prediction of future aircraft noise level  11

80 400
(a)(i) (ii)
Scenario 1 Scenario 1
70 350
Scenario 2 Scenario 2
60 300

Population (k)
50 250
Area (km2)

40 200

30 150

20 100

10 50

0 0
70~75 75~80 80~85 85~90 >90 70~75 75~80 80~85 85~90 >90
(dB) (dB)
80 500
(b)(i) (ii)
Scenario 1 Scenario 1
70
Scenario 2 Scenario 2
400
60

Population (k)
50
300
Area (km2)

40

30 200

20
100
10

0 0
70~75 75~80 80~85 85~90 >90 70~75 75~80 80~85 85~90 >90
(dB) (dB)

Figure 11: Noise-affected area and population under different ranges of LWECPN in 2030 during (a) summer and (b) winter. (i) Area (ii) population.

During summer, when LWECPN > 70 dB, it is found that even density. In addition, Figure 11 shows that the differences
Scenario 2 only produces 2.317 km2 more noise-affected area between the noise-affected area and population caused
compare to Scenario 1 as shown in Table 6, but the noise- by the two scenarios are mainly occur in the range of
affected population of Scenario 2 is 30,310 more people than 70 dB < LWECPN < 75 dB, while there is no significant differ-
Scenario 1. This is because first, it can be seen from Figure ence in other ranges of LWECPN . Therefore, it is recom-
9(a) that the north longitudinal extension range of the noise mended that BIA selects Scenario 1 as its operation scenario
contour (red) of Scenario 1 is significantly larger than that of in 2030 since Scenario 1 produces lesser noise-affected areas
Scenario 2 (yellow). Consequently, Scenario 1 covers more and population during both summer and winter.
mountain areas compared to Scenario 2. Second, the north
horizontal extension range of the noise contour of Scenario
2 is significantly larger than that of Scenario 1. Consequently,
Scenario 2 covers more human activity areas compared to 3.2 Comparison between the current and
Scenario 1. future noise exposure levels of BIA
During winter, when LWECPN > 70 dB, the noise-affected
area of Scenario 2 is also slightly higher than that of Current noise exposure level of BIA was compared with its
Scenario 1 (3.468 km2 more), but the noise-affected popula- future noise exposure level in 2030 using Scenario 1 since
tion is 98,378 more people than that of Scenario 1 (Table 6). the noise pollution degree of Scenario 1 is lower than Scenario
This is because during winter, the south noise contour of 2 as discussed in Section 3.1. Figure 12(a) shows that during
Scenario 1 extends southward, covers the main area of summer, the noise-affected area (LWECPN ≥ 70 dB) of BIA in
Renhe Town (3,940 people/km2 ) and Junhe street (12,023 2030 increase significantly, which is about 51.963 km2 (61.96%)
people/km2 ), as shown in Figure 10(b). The south noise con- (Table 7). Consequently, the noise-affected population also
tour of Scenario 2 covers Longgui street (10,084 people/km2 ) increases about 272,001 people, which is about 139.60%.
and Jiahe street (2,4751 people/km2 ) with greater population During winter (Figure 12(b)), the noise-affected area and
12  Jinlong Xie et al.

Scenario 1 (2030) Current (summer) Current (winter)

(a) N
W E
S
L WECPN = 70 dB

0 3 6 km
(b) N
W E
S

LWECPN = 70 dB

0 3 6 km

Figure 12: Current and future (2030, Scenario 1) noise contour comparison during (a) summer and (b) winter.
 Methodologies for the prediction of future aircraft noise level  13

Table 7: Comparison between the current and future (2030, Scenario 1) noise exposure levels of BIA

LWECPN > 70 dB LWECPN > 75 dB LWECPN > 80 dB LWECPN > 85 dB LWECPN > 90 dB

Summer Area (km2 ) Current 83.885 38.813 16.925 7.165 2.960

2030 135.848 69.525 30.635 12.413 4.943
Growth rate (%) 61.95 79.13 81 73.24 66.99
Population Current 194,842 75,514 13,414 1,831 155
2030 466,843 179,171 26,262 1,893 0
Growth rate (%) 139.60 137.27 95.78 3.39 100
Winter Area (km2 ) Current 78.386 36.249 15.790 6.536 2.594
2030 134.73 67.238 28.59 11.67 4.54
Growth rate (%) 71.88 85.49 81.06 78.55 75.02
Population Current 223,261 76,473 2,226 4,033 436
2030 551,167 228,400 60,915 10,998 0
Growth rate (%) 146.87 198.67 173.65 172.70 ‒100

population of BIA in 2030 also increase significantly, which 2030 except for the range of LWECPN > 90 dB (Table 7 and
are about 56.344 km2 (71.88%) and 327,906 people (146.87%), Figure 13). This is because the expansion of the airport has
as shown in Table 7. Thus, the noise pollution degree of BIA led to the relocation of residents around the five runways, so
during winter is more serious than that during summer. It is no residents are exposed to the area with LWECPN > 90 dB.
interesting to take note that the noise-affected area and popu- Figure 14 shows that in 2030, the noise-affected area of BIA
lation under all ranges of LWECPN also increase significantly in during winter is 1.118 km2 lesser than that during summer.

350
(a)(i) 70 (ii)
Current Current
2030 300 2030
60
250
50
Population (k)
Area (km2)

200
40

30 150

20 100

10 50

0 0
70~75 75~80 80~85 85~90 >90 70~75 75~80 80~85 85~90 >90
L WECPN (dB) L WECPN (dB)
350
(b)(i) 70 (ii)
Current Current
2030 300 2030
60
250
50
Population (k)
Area (km2)

200
40

30 150

20 100

10 50

0 0
70~75 75~80 80~85 85~90 >90 70~75 75~80 80~85 85~90 >90
L WECPN (dB) L WECPN (dB)

Figure 13: Comparison between the current and future (2030, Scenario 1) noise exposure levels of BIA during (a) summer and (b) winter: (i) area and
(ii) population.
14  Jinlong Xie et al.

km 2 k It can be concluded that the number and growth rate

160 600
of noise exposed population in the future during winter
155 Summer
Winter 551.167 are the highest. This is due to the difference of population
150 550
density in the noise-affected area during the two seasons.
145
Therefore, an airport should not only pay attention to the
140 500
135.848 134.730 higher noise level caused by the airport development in
135 466.843
the future, but an airport also needs to pay attention to the
130 450
total noise exposed population around the airport. The
125
results of this study can not only provide valuable informa-
120 400
tion for BIA to maintain its sustainable development, but
115
110 350
also provide a guidance for other large airports to predict
105
future aircraft noise level. For future works, a systematic
100 300 method should be developed to estimate the error (in ±%)
Area Population of the current noise prediction method so that the readers
can roughly predict, for example, the highest and lowest
Figure 14: Noise-affected area and population of BIA in 2030 (Scenario 1)
during summer and winter.
possible noise levels of the particular location if future
noise level of the location is 80 dB.

However, the noise-affected population during winter is Funding information: This research was funded by Singapore
843,230 people more than that during summer. This is Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund Tier 1 [R-265-
because the south aircraft noise contour during winter 000-639-114].
extends to the area with greater population density as
shown in Figure 10(b) and Table A4. Author contributions: All authors have accepted responsi-
bility for the entire content of this manuscript and con-
sented to its submission to the journal, reviewed all the
results and approved the final version of the manuscript.
4 Conclusions Conceptualization, HML & HPL; methodology, LZ; software,
LZ; validation, LZ; formal analysis, LZ & JX; investigation,
The future aircraft noise-level prediction method using BIA LZ; resources, HML & HPL; data curation, LZ; writing –
as an example was proposed in this study. First, two future original draft preparation, JX & HML; writing – review
operation scenarios and future operation of BIA in 2030 were and editing, HML; visualization, LZ; supervision, JX; project
predicted based on the BIA existing operation data. Thereafter, administration, JX; funding acquisition, HPL.
the population of the nine administrative regions around BIA
in 2030 were predicted based on the method from United Conflict of interest: The authors state no conflict of interest.
Nations. Finally, the noise maps of BIAs under two different
operation scenarios in 2030 during summer and winter were
constructed. The noise exposure levels of BIA were evaluated
based one the constructed noise maps. References
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level greater than 70 dB under Scenario 1 are less than those of [1] World air passenger traffic evolution, 1980–2020. Energy Efficiency
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when noise level is greater than 70 dB increase by 71.88 and [6] Josimovic B, Krunic N, Nenkovic-Riznic M. The impact of airport
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[10] Guangzhou Traffic Development Annual Report. Guangzhou [18] Population and distribution of resident in Guangzhou from 2010 to
Transportation Planning and Research Institute; 2020. http://www. 2020. 2021. http://tjj.gz.gov.cn/tjgb/qtgb/content/post7912709.html.
gz.gov.cn/zt/ylctfjzx2019gzld/content/post-7722538.html. [19] Methods of Estimating Total Population for Current Dates. New
[11] Xie J, Zhu L, Lee HM. Novel methodologies for the development of York: United Nations; 1952. p. 10.
large-scale airport noise map. Sustainability. 2022;14(11):6573. [20] Bulletin of the seventh national census of Baiyun District,
[12] Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport; 2022. https://en.wikipedia. Guangzhou [1] (No. 2) – population of each town (street); 2021.
org/wiki/GuangzhouBaiyunInternationalAirportcitenote3runway4. http://www.by.gov.cn/ywdt/tzgg/content/post-7326984.html.
[13] Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Phase III expansion pro- [21] Bulletin of the seventh national census of Huadu District,
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16  Jinlong Xie et al.

Appendix

Table A1: Current aircraft takeoff tracks and the corresponding destinations in BIA during summer

Track Direction relative to the Destination

airport

T-19-A, T-19-B, North, northwest, west Harbin, Beijing, Changchun, Taiyuan, Tianjin, Chengdu, Chongqing, Lanzhou, Urumqi,
T-20R-C Yichang, Zunyi, Nanyang, Zhangjiajie, Shijiazhuang, Nanchong, Wanzhou, Jingzhou, Yizhou,
Yulin, Yuncheng, Sanxia, Tongren, Shenyang, Fuyang, Amsterdam, Liupanshui, Xi’an,
Hohhot, Yinchuan, Yibin, Changde, Shijiazhuang, Wuhan, Jingzhou, Shiyan, Yuncheng, Bijie,
Xichang, Mianyang, Zhengzhou, Fuyang, Hancheng, Xining, Yulin, Tongren, Longnan,
Guiyang, Handan, Hanzhong, Jining, Anshan, Ankang, Taiyuan, Changsha, London, Luoyang,
Guangyuan, Qianjiang, Frankfurt, Linzhi, etc.
T-20R-A Northeast, east, southeast Jinan, Shanghai, Yantai, Dongying, Changzhou, Huangyan, Vancouver, Dalian, Quanzhou,
Meizhou, Qingdao, Wenzhou, Fuzhou, Hefei, Taizhou, Meixian, Weihai, Weifang, Los Angeles,
Dongying, San Francisco, New York, Xiamen, Zhoushan, Toronto, Anqing, Rizhao, Chizhou,
Anchorage, Seoul, Nantong, Tokyo, Nanjing, Dhaka, Ningbo, Anqing, Obligation,
Lianyungang, Nanchang, Yichun, Ganzhou, Jingdezhen, Ji’an, Yangzhou, Wuxi, Yancheng,
Jieyang, Wuyishan, Fuzhou, Huaian, Huangshan, etc.
T-20R-B, T-19-C Nouthwest, south Xingyi, Kunming, Dali, Jinghong, Sanya, Haikou, Baoshan, Phnom Penh, Manang, Zhanjiang,
Auckland, Doha, Dhaka, Manila, Qionghai, Lijiang, Tengchong, Nanning, Islamabad,
Wenshan, Shangri-La, Nebbiro, Kolkata, White, North Sea, Tehran, Taipei, Colombo, North
Sea, Nanning, Dubai, Auckland, Doha, etc.

Table A2: Current aircraft takeoff tracks and the corresponding destinations in BIA during winter

Track Direction relative to the Destination

airport

T-01-A, West, southwest, south Anshan, Yichang, Lijiang, Linyi, Linzhi, Seoul, Colombo, Jinghong, Kunming, Xinyi, Sanya,
T-02L-A Baoshan, Haikou, Beihai, Ethiopia, Dali, Kathmandu, Mangshi, Zhanjiang, Nairobi, Nanning,
Dhaka, Phnom Penh, Diqing, Shangri-La, Ho Chi Minh City, Tehran, Bangkok, Auckland, Riyadh,
Singapore, Zhanjiang, Nanning, Kuala Lumpur, Riyadh, etc.
T-01-B Northwest Shiyan, Chengdu, Chongqing, Xi’an, Nanchong, Dazhou, Yibin, Yinchuan, Wanzhou, Luzhou,
Zunyi, Shaotong, Guiyang, Ankang, Yulin, Tongren, Longnan, Mianyang, Urumqi, Wushan,
Frankfurt, Bijie, Bishkek, Xi’an, Lanzhou, Guiyang, Bijie, Mianyang, Atatürk, etc.
T-01-C, North Yichang, Sanxia, Luoyang, Shijiazhuang, Lanzhou, Harbin, Wuhan, Changsha, Xiangyang,
T-02L-B Yuncheng, Luzhou, Hohhot, Taiyuan, Shenyang, Yizhou, Bishkek, Linyi, Taiyuan, Changde,
Tianjin, Anshan, Nanyang, Changchun, Nanyang, Beijing, Jining, Zhengzhou, Qinhuangdao,
Xinyang, Tangshan, Zhangjiajie, Fuyang, Urumqi, Handan, Tianjin, Yuncheng, Almaty, etc.
T-02L-C Northeast, east, southeast Jinan, Shanghai, Yantai, Dongying, Changzhou, Huangyan, Vancouver, Dalian, Quanzhou,
Meizhou, Qingdao, Wenzhou, Fuzhou, Hefei, Taizhou, Meixian, Weihai, Weifang, Los Angeles,
Dongying, San Francisco, New York, Xiamen, Zhoushan, Toronto, Anqing, Rizhao, Chizhou,
Anchorage, Seoul, Nantong, Tokyo, Nanjing, Dhaka, Ningbo, Anqing, Obligation, Lianyungang,
Nanchang, Yichun, Ganzhou, Jingdezhen, Ji’an, Yangzhou, Wuxi, Yancheng, Jieyang, Wuyishan,
Fuzhou, Huaian, Huangshan, etc.
 Methodologies for the prediction of future aircraft noise level  17

Table A3: Operation mode of parallel runway [16]

Spacing Mode Operation

<760 m Release single runway with time One runway is only used for landing, and another runway is only used for takeoff based on
interval the specified time interval
≥760 m Segregated parallel approach/ One runway is only used for departure, and another runway is only used for approach
departure
≥760 m Independent parallel departure Simultaneous takeoffs on the parallel runways are possible if the flying directions of the
aircrafts are the same
≥915 m Dependent parallel approach Simultaneous landings on the parallel runways are possible if the specified spacing between
the two aircrafts is complied
≥1,035 m Independent parallel approach Simultaneous landings on the parallel runways are possible if the specified spacing between
the two aircrafts is not complied.

Table A4: Population densities of the nine administrative regions around BIA in 2030

Region Direction relative to the airport Area (km2 ) Population Population density (people/km2 )

Huadong town North 208.44 250,414 2519

Huashan town Northwest 116 174,842 839
Xinya street Southwest 32.98 244,492 7413
Renhe town South 74.15 292,114 3,940
Longgui street South 26.71 269,336 10,084
Taihe town Southeast 155.37 182,243 1173
Junhe street South 19.8 238,056 12,023
Jiahe street South 9.8 242,557 24,751
Zhongluotan town East 169.4 380,450 2,246

The area of each region can be found from [22].