PROBABILITY

01
Definition
Probability is used to describe the likelihood of an event to happen. It
deals with events that occur by chance.
 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒
02
Outcome
It is the result of a single trial of a probability experiment
03
Sample Space
A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of a probability
experiment.
Example 1
Find the sample space of rolling two dice
Example 2
Find the sample space for drawing one card from an ordinary deck of cards
Example 3
Find the sample space for
the gender of the children if
a family has three children.
Use B for boy and G for girl.
04
Event
It consists of a set of outcomes of a probability experiemtn
 SIMPLE EVENT COMPOUND EVENT
An event with one outcome. An event with two or more
outcomes or simple
events.
3 Basic Interpretations
of Probability
1. Classical Probability
2. Empirical or Relative Frequency
Probability
3. Subjective Probability
05
CLASSICAL PROBABILITY
It assumes all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely to
occur.
 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝐸
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝐸 =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒

𝑛(𝐸)
𝑃 𝐸 =
𝑛(𝑆)
Example 4
A card is drawn from an ordinary deck. Find these probabilities:
a. Of getting a queen
b. Of getting the 4 of spades
c. Of getting a 3 or a diamond
d. Of getting a 3 or a 4

ANSWER:
a. 4/52
b. 1/52
c. 16/52
d. 8/52
06
EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY
It relies on actual experience to determine the likelihood of outcomes.
 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝐸 =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛

𝑓
𝑃 𝐸 =
𝑛
Example 5
Suppose that a researcher for the American Automobile Association (AAA)
asked 50 people who plan to travel over the Thanksgiving holiday how they
will get to their destination. The results can be categorized in a frequency
distribution as shown.

Find the probability that a person will travel by airplane over the
Thanksgiving holiday.
ANSWER: 6/50
Example 6
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type 0 blood, 22 had type A blood, 5 had
type B blood, and 2 had type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution and
find the following probabilities.
a. A person has type O blood
b. A person has type A or type B blood
c. A person has neither type A nor type O

ANSWER:
a. 21/50
b. 27/50
c. 7/50
06
SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY
It uses probability value based on educated guess or estimate,
employing opinions and inexact information.
Example 7
• A physician might say that, on the basis of her diagnosis, there is a 30%
chance the patient will need an operation.

• A seismologist might say there is an 80% probability that an earthquake

will occur in a certain area.
PROPERTIES OF PROBABILITY
● The probability of any event E, P(E), must be between 0
and 1 inclusive. That is, 0 < P(E) , 1.

● The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in a

sample space is 1

● If an event is impossible, the probability of the event is 0.

● If an event is certain, then the probability of E is 1.

07
ADDITIVE LAWS OF PROBABILITY
RULE 1: When two events A and B are
mutually exclusive, the probability that A or
B will occur is

𝑃 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃(𝐵)
Example 8
A day of the week is selected at random. Find the probability that it is a
weekend day.

ANSWER:
P(Sunday)+P(Saturday) = 1/7 + 1/7 = 2/7
Example 9
In a survey, 8% of the respondents said that their favorite ice cream flavor is
cookies and cream, and 6% like mint chocolate chip. If a person is selected
at random, find the probability that her or his favorite ice cream flavor is
either cookies and cream or mint chocolate chip.

Answer: 14%
07
ADDITIVE LAWS OF PROBABILITY
RULE 2: If A and B are not mutually exclusive,
then
𝑃 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
Example 10
A single card is drawn at random from an ordinary deck of cards. Find the
probability that it is either an ace or a black card.

Answer: 28/52
Example 11
In a hospital unit, there are 8 nurses and 5 physicians; 7 nurses and 3
physicians are females. If a staff person is selected, find the probability that
the subject is a nurse or a male.

Answer: 10/13
Example 12
The probability that student A passes Engineering Data Analysis is 2/3, and
the probability that the student passes Technopreneurship is 4/9. If the
probability of passing both courses is 1/4. what is the probability that
student A will pass at least one of these courses.

Answer: 31/36
08
COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS
𝑃 𝐸 =1−𝑃 𝐸
𝑃 𝐸 =1−𝑃 𝐸
𝑃 𝐸 +𝑃 𝐸 =1
Example 13
If the probability that a person lives in an industrialized country of the world
is 1/5, find the probability that a person does not live in an industrialized
country.

ANSWER:
P(E) = 1 – 1/5 = 4/5
09
MULTIPLICATION RULE
RULE 1: When two events are independent, the
probability of both occurring is
𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 ∗ 𝑃 𝐵
Example 14
A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the probability of getting a head on
the coin and a 4 on the die.

ANSWER: P(H and 4) = ½ X 1/6 = 1/12

Example 15
A card is drawn from a deck and replaced; then a second card is drawn.
Find the probability of getting a queen and then an ace.

ANSWER: P(queen) x P(ace) = 4/52 x 4/52

09
MULTIPLICATION RULE
RULE 2: When two events are dependent, the
probability of both occurring is
𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 ∗ 𝑃 𝐵|𝐴
Example 16
Three cards are drawn from an ordinary deck and not replaced. Find the
probability of these events.
a. Getting a 3 jacks
b. Getting an ace, a king, and a queen in order
c. Getting a club, a spade, and a heart in order

Answer:
a. P(3 jacks) = 4/52 x 3/51 x 2/50
b. P(ace, king, and a queen) = 4/52 x 4/51 x 4/50
c. P(club, spade, heart) = 13/52 x 13/51 x 13/50
Homework
1. The probability that John will 2. Two dice are rolled. Find the
drive to school is 0.37, the probability of getting
probability that he will ride with a. A sum of 8, 9, or 10
friends is 0.23, and the b. Doubles or a sum of 7
probability that his parents will c. A sum greater than 9 or less
take him is 0.4. He is not allowed than 4
to have passengers in the car d. Based on the answers to a, b,
when he is driving. What is the and c, which is least likely to
probability that John will have occur?
company on the way to school?