Research Based Marketing

Section 2
New Product Development
 Idea Idea Concept Concept Product Communication Forecasting
Pricing
Generation Screening Screening Testing Testing Testing
Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Brain Storming

• Internal team discussions

• Develop cross-functional teams involving marketing,
sales, production, creative, research teams
• Define NPD objective
• New Product Development
• Variant Launch
• New Packaging
• New Communication
• Use available information (U&A, market intelligence etc.)
to generate ideas or identify brand needs
• Generate as many ideas as possible around the objective
• Screen Actionable ideas and develop concept board for
consumer testing

Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Creative Workshops

• Potential Consumers are gathered in a specious hall and set

free to have an informal discussion
• A Professional Moderator explains the objective of the
creative workshop and ask consumers to think about
• Desired product / features
• New Ideas for the Ad / BTL / Communication
• New Packaging ideas
• The workshop may continue for several days depending on
number of ideas generated
• Moderator then probe for the details on each and every idea
• Screen Actionable ideas and develop concept board for
consumer testing

Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Idea/ Concept
Screening

• Brain storming and creative workshops often result in several possible

concepts
• Even a single qualified idea may result in several executions
• Product Launch: Several positioning platforms
• Communication: Execution based on several situations from slice of the life
• Packaging: More than one pack designs developed by creative team
• In all such cases, Qualitative research is recommended using Focus Group
Discussions
• Few (4-6 FGDs) with Bulls-eye target audience is sufficient to ascertain
best candidate for launch
• It is recommended to spread the sample in two key markets e.g. Karachi &
Lahore
• For certain categories (social/ banking etc.) we may have to replace FGDs
with In-depth interviews (IDIs)

Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Concept Testing
• A concept test is the proxy of consumer reaction to any stimuli in the market
place i.e. a concept should be treated as the brand communication to respective
target audience
• Hence consumer acceptance of a concept in terms of Purchase intent is the
heart of concept testing
• At times marketeers think that a concept test can be done quickly and cost
effectively through FGDs !!! This approach is fine but it is just Quick & Dirty
• A Quantitative Study is strongly recommended to conduct a concept test using
face to face interview (FTF or PAPI) through DTD methodology
• Target Audience should remain confined to Bulls-eye and sample should be
spread across key 2-3 markets e.g. Female aged 22 – 35, SEC A&B in KLI for a
liquid dish wash
• An overall sample of 200 to 300 respondents using quota based sampling is
recommended eventually the results should be reviewed on overall basis too
• In case, if we have very diverse market segments (recipe/ tea etc.) then we
might need to increase the sample a bit so that reaction of each market
segment can be ascertained

Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Concept Board
• Concept Board should be done in consumer understandable language
• A concept should have 4 Mandatory items

Brand Name

1 Problem Definition/ Tag Line

Product / Pack Shot
Need Gap

Product Claim
2
3 Product USP

Product RTB
4

Product Specs.

Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Action Standard

• There is no set Action Standard for a Concept to be successful

but based on what most manufacturers and researchers follow, Other Diagnostics
if a concept acceptance is • Likeability
• 80% or above then it’s a sure bet • Relevance
• Between 70% – 80% - check diagnostics to improve the
concept / product feature • Believability
• Below 70% - it’s a clear Red Light - Analyze diagnostics in
detail. Concept may require major rework or the • Uniqueness
proposition may be not attractive • Likes / Dislikes
• Certain organizations follow 5 point Likert Scale (Liked very • New & Different
much to Disliked very much) but it is recommended that a 5 • Comprehension
point Purchase intent scale (Would definitely buy – Would
definitely not buy) be used as it is the closest proxy to “call to • Key Message
action”
• Price Prompted
• in both cases top 2 box result should be used to measure the
Purchase Intent
concept acceptance i.e. % of respondents who claim “Would
definitely buy” or “Probably would buy”

Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Product Testing

Product
New Product Upgrade/
Launch New
Formulation

Competition
New Variant
Benchmarking

Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Methodology

Home Usage Test (HUT) Central Location Test(CLT) Qualitative (FGD)

• Actual usage • Where strict control • Don’t even think
environment is over test protocol is about it
necessary desired • Perfect way to get
• Detergent, Soap, • Fragrance Test, Taste misdirected as the
Shampoo, Tea, Recipe, test not involving sample is not
Ketchup cooking, packaging statistically robust
tests

Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Brand Effect

Blind Vs. Branded

• Consumers don’t buy product – they buy
brand hence it is very important yet tricky
to determine whether brand effect be
introduced in the test or not
• Think about following scenarios

Test Scenario Brand Effect

New Product Launch Branded
New Variant Launch Branded
Competition Benchmarking Blind
Formulation Change Branded

Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Test Design
Monadic Paired
• Two Matched panels • Target respondents evaluate two
• Each panel evaluate one product only products one after the other
• Product placement is rotated to avoid
order bias
Product 1st Product 2nd Product Evaluation based
Product Rating
Placement Placement Placement on Preference

Sequential Monadic Proto Monadic

• Target respondents evaluate two • Target respondents evaluate two
products one after the other products one after the other
• Product placement is rotated to avoid • Product placement is rotated to avoid
order bias order bias
1st Product 1st Product
Rating Preference Rating
1st Product 1st Product
Placement Placement
2nd Product 2nd Product 2nd Product
Preference
Placement Rating Placement

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Screening Testing
Action Standard
• Usually marketeers start thinking about the way forward of a product test when the
results are available
• At times this leads to certain compromises or marketeer may be pressured to alter
the criteria of the success to fit the results
• Having a clarity upfront on what to do with the results would even help improve the
test design
• Action Standard is usually set based on Test Product performance scores vs. the
Control Product e.g.
“The product will move forward if found at par or better than the control product on
overall average likert rating”
• Control product is another important aspect of the product which depends on the
test scenario

Test Scenario Control Product

New Product Launch Leading Brand – In case of “No competition” use product acceptability norms
New Variant Launch Key Competition’s Similar Variant or Current Variant
Competition Benchmarking Competition Brand
Formulation Change Current Formulation

Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
TOT Designs

• Total Offer Test is the combination of a Concept test and a Product test also
knows as Concept & Use Test (C&U)
• First Concept test is conducted with the target audience followed by a
Product test conducted only with concept positives(Top 2 Box on Purchase
intent)
• This design is best suited for the New product Launches where the idea is to
mimic the actual launch scenario
• Concept test serves as the Communication, Positive Purchase intent provides
proxy for trail. Purchase intent after Product test refers to repeat purchase
• Above information becomes an integral input to the Market Forecasting
Model which is discussed in detail in the following slides

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Screening Testing
Pricing

• Use market intelligence to gather competitive pricing

• Price point determination is a strategic decision based on product positioning (Premium,
Penetration, benchmark) and obviously on what kind of returns are expected
• In most cases marketeers can figure out a Price Range based on available data but struggles
with what price point would generate maximum sales or give the maximum profitability
• Various pricing techniques can be used with concept test, Product Test, C&U studies to save
cost, however, separate pricing study can also be conducted specifically if using Complex
Pricing Model
• Brand Price Trade Off (BPTO): Almost redundant now due methodological weakness as
it does not mimic the actual purchase scenario.

• Price Sensitivity Meter (PSM): It is probably the best technique to be conducted as a

tag-on with Concept/ Product Test. However, if price is to be added as a part of the offer
in the concept then pricing research is to be conducted as a separate study.

• Conjoint Analysis: Most advanced and most widely used for Pricing Research. In
addition to the Price, Conjoint studies are also helpful for product and portfolio
optimization. Market Simulation is another feature that makes it unique vs. other
techniques

Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
• Group of products are presented to a customer
• Each product is priced at its lowest level
BPTO
• The consumer is asked to select one product
• The price of the product they select is then increased to the next level, no other prices change
• The consumer is asked to select again
• This process is repeated, until the product reaches its maximum price or the consumer selects
another product
• The study may move through all of the competing products
• Sometimes the process will include the choice “None of the above”, at which time the task ends
BPTO

Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
BPTO

Market share of Paris at the lowest price point was 58%, shared
declined to 45% when price was increased to 299 vis-à-vis at
highest price point it will loose all customers

Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Price Sensitivity Meter (PSM)
• Originally developed by Dutch economist Peter Van Westendorp in 1976
• PSM is calculated based on four key questions
• Q1: At what price would you consider the product/service to be priced so low that you feel
that the quality can’t be very good? (Too Cheap)
• Q2: At what price would you consider this product/service to be a bargain—a great buy for
the money? (Cheap/Good Value)
• Q3: At what price would you say this product/service is starting to get expensive—it’s not
out of the question, but you’d have to give some thought to buying it? (Expensive/
Premium)
• Q4: At what price would you consider the product/service to be so expensive that you
would not consider buying it? (Too Expensive)

• Usually, PSM is run without any price range or price is not prompted to respondent, however, in
categories where consumers are expected to have low awareness of actual price point all
questions could be done with a price range prompt to make it more realistic.

Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Price Sensitivity Meter (PSM)

Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Price Sensitivity Meter (PSM)
Point of marginal cheapness (PMC)
• The point of marginal cheapness is the price at which you risk losing the majority of sales
because customers perceive that the product is low in quality. It is found by observing where
the data points relating to Q1 (Too Cheap) intersect with the inverse of Q2 (Cheap/Good Value).
While some customers may still be willing to buy below this price point, the number of sales
that would be gained from those seeking to land a deal will be outweighed by the number of
sales lost.

Point of marginal expensiveness (PME)

• The point of marginal expensiveness is the price point above which your customers begin to
lose interest in buying. It is found where Q2 (Cheap/Good Value) and Q4 (Too Expensive)
intersect with one another. Above this point, while some customers may not be concerned
about price, most customers feel that the product is too expensive compared to how much
value they derive from it.

The range of acceptable pricing

• The point of marginal cheapness and the point of marginal expensiveness represent the upper
and lower limits that your customers are willing to tolerate or that they would expect to pay.
This is called the range of acceptable pricing.
Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Price Sensitivity Meter (PSM)
Indifference price point (IPP)
• The point at which the proportion of customers who believe that the price is becoming too
expensive is the equivalent to the proportion of customers who feel the price is a bargain. At this
point, most customers are indifferent to the price. A common interpretation of the indifference
price point is that it is the normal price for your product. If you choose to price your product
below this point, you stand to lose revenues. But setting prices above this point will cause sales
to decline.

Finding the Optimal Price Point (OPP)

• The indifference price point is one possible price point for your product, but it may not
necessarily be the best. At the optimum price point or OPP, an equal percentage of respondents
believe that the price is either too expensive or too cheap. This is the sweet spot: the point at
which the maximum number of respondents find the price acceptable, and where resistance to
minor changes in price are minimized. At this intersection, maximum sales can be realized,
making it the best possible price for your product.

Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
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 The Birth of Conjoint

Price

• All conventional pricing research techniques such as

BPTO, PSM have a great limitation where we must
Place Color assume that all other attributes will remain the
Consumer same except price.
Decisions • Eventually the pricing research becomes redundant
as soon as any market player change the dynamics
(such as launch a new variant).
Promotion Packaging • Conjoint analysis provides a method for anticipating
how consumers will react to any defined
combination of marketing variables
• The objective of conjoint analysis is to determine
what combination of a limited number of attributes
is most influential on consumer choice or decision
making

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Screening
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 Understanding Purchase Behavior

Active
1 Evaluation
2
3

Consumers Add or Subtract

brands as they evaluate
Initial what they want
Consideration
Set Consumer Choices are not based on price Moment of
only, it rather includes brand image, product
features, packaging type, size etc. Purchase
The consumer considers an
initial set of brands, based on Hence predicting future purchase pattern
brand perception and exposures should take into account all aspects instead Ultimately consumer select
to recent touch points
of relying on the price only. a brand at the moment of
purchase

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 Conjoint Answers

Marketeers are constantly faced with “What if” Questions

• What will happen to consumer demand if we change the product features?

• What will happen if we change the price level?
• What will happen if we change the brand name?
• What will happen if we change the packaging?
• What will happen if we introduces new variant?
• What will happen if we change the size?
• What will happen to our brand if a competitor changes its product, pricing, packaging, size or
introduces a variant?

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 How Conjoint Works

• Estimates psychological tradeoffs that consumers make when evaluating several attributes
together
• Measures preferences at the individual level
• Uncovers real or hidden drivers which may not be apparent to the respondent themselves
• Provide realistic choices or shopping tasks

Idea/ Concept Communication 41

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 How Conjoint Works
• Product scenarios are developed with selected product combinations using orthogonal
design
• Respondents rank these scenarios based on their preferences i.e. respondents make a series
of trade-offs.
• This ranking data is analyzed to develop market simulations. Analysis of these trade-offs
reveals the relative importance of each component and attributes.
• To improve the predictive ability of this analysis, research participants should be grouped into
similar segments based on objectives, values and/or other factors

Choices at Play
Variables Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5
Brand Mobilink Ufone Telenor Warid Zong
On Net Rate (Per 30 Sec) Rs. 0.65 Rs. 0.75 Rs. 0.85 Rs. 0.95 Rs. 0.99
Off Net Rate (Per 30 Sec) Rs. 1.05 Rs. 1.15 Rs. 1.25 Rs. 1.35
Friends & Family Not Available Same as On Net Rs. 0.25 Rs. 0.35 Rs. 0.45
PTCL Rates Not Available Same as On Net Same as Off Net

Idea/ Concept Communication 42

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 How Conjoint Works

• Conducted through a Quantitative Module

• Face-to-face interviews using CAPI technique through door to door interviewing
methodology
• Offers flexible Sample Design to meet geographical coverage requirements
• Standard Market research norms apply with regards to statistical sample size and accuracy
when designing conjoint analysis interviews
• Generally, a minimum sample of 400 is recommended to run Conjoint Analysis
• An interactive Market Simulator can be developed using conjoint data that answers
o NPD / Portfolio Management
o Pricing

• Also offers following additional analytics

o Brand Equity Index
o Key Driver Analysis
o Consumer Segmentation

Idea/ Concept Communication 43

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Copyright © Markematics 2012 | Confidential and proprietary
 Conjoint Analytics

NPD / Portfolio Management Pricing

• What should be the SKU’s lineup? • What is the optimum price point for
• Which variant to keep / discontinue/ my brand/ SKUs?
launch? • At which price I will get maximum
• Which packaging would help to market share / profitability?
increase brand share / image? • What if I increase the price of
• What if competition launches similar brand/SKU?
SKU/ variant? • What if competition follows reactive
pricing strategy?
• What would be the incremental
volume if I reduce the price?

Idea/ Concept Communication 44

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Copyright © Markematics 2012 | Confidential and proprietary
 Conjoint Analytics

NPD / Portfolio Management Pricing

• What should be the SKU’s lineup? • What is the optimum price point for
• Which variant to keep / discontinue/ my brand/ SKUs?
launch? • At which price I will get maximum
• Which packaging would help to market share / profitability?
increase brand share / image? • What if I increase the price of
• What if competition launches similar brand/SKU?
SKU/ variant? • What if competition follows reactive
pricing strategy?
• What would be the incremental
volume if I reduce the price?

Idea/ Concept Communication 45

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Copyright © Markematics 2012 | Confidential and proprietary
 Conjoint Simulator

26%
25%
Simulation Current 24%

13%
12%

25% 12% 13% 23% 27%

Mobilink Ufone Telenor Warid Zong

31% 23% 11% 13% 22%

Brand Mobilink Ufone Telenor Warid Zong
On Net Rate (Per 30 Sec) Rs.0.65 Rs.0.65 Rs.0.65 Rs.0.65 Rs.0.65
Off Net Rate (Per 30 Sec) Rs.1.35 Rs.1.35 Rs.1.35 Rs.1.35 Rs.1.35
Friends & Family Rs.0.45 Rs.0.45 Rs.0.45 Rs.0.45 Rs.0.45
Rs.0.55
PTCL Rates Rs.1.35 Rs.1.35 Rs.1.35 Rs.1.35 Rs.1.35
Rs.0.75
Rs.0.85

Idea/ Concept Communication 46

46
Idea Generation Screening Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Testing Forecasting
Copyright © Markematics 2012 | Confidential and proprietary
 Conjoint Simulator

Simulation Current

26%
25%
24%

13%
12%

34% 11% 13% 20% 22%

Mobilink Ufone Telenor Warid Zong

31% 23% 11% 13% 22%

Brand Mobilink Ufone Telenor Warid Zong
On Net Rate (Per 30 Sec) Rs.0.55 Rs.0.65 Rs.0.65 Rs.0.65 Rs.0.65
Off Net Rate (Per 30 Sec) Rs.1.35 Rs.1.35 Rs.1.35 Rs.1.35 Rs.1.35
Friends & Family Rs.0.45 Rs.0.45 Rs.0.45 Rs.0.45 Rs.0.45
PTCL Rates Rs.1.35 Rs.1.35 Rs.1.35 Rs.1.35 Rs.1.35

Idea/ Concept Communication 47

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Communication Test
• Communication Development involves three major steps

Ad Concept • Multiple ideas/ concepts are being • 2 Focus Group Discussions are
generated by “Creative” sufficient to understand the
• Consumers appreciation and receptivity of overall consumer reaction
the concept • Cost PKR 100K

Story Board • Creative suggests more than one execution • 4-5 FGDs in 2 key markets
• To avoid production cost on a bad idea • Cost PKR 200K

Off-Air Ad • To predict Ad performance before Airing • Quantitative Study based on CLT

Testing • Clutter Break methodology
• Brand Cut Through • Sample 200- 300 in 2-3 key
• Execution Cut Through markets
• Likeability
• Interest
• Cost PKR 400-600K
• Relevance
• Believability
• Persuasiveness

Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Communication Test The New Age
• Eye Ball Tracking is the latest innovation in Ad pre-testing
• Eye Movements accurately reflect visual attention and cognitive thought process.
• You can measure spontaneous reactions and responses without having to filter
respondents’ logical thinking.
• Eye Tracking gives you clearer results and reveals information that is normally
missed with other testing methods.

Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Forecasting
• There are several branded tools available for a total offer test mostly based on a C&U
methodology
• Nielsen BASES
• TNS FYI
• RI MICROTEST
• Ipsos Novaction Designor
• Ages Synovate MarketTest

• Almost all of these tools are pretty expensive and lack Pakistani market norming
databases hence the use is very limited
• Usually marketeers work with a guesstimated forecast, however, this guesstimate
could be made a little scientific

Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
Forecasting
Units Quantity Source
Total Population 100 % 168,000,000 Demographic Data
Population Aged 10+ 85 % 142,800,000 Demographic Data
Population SEC A to C 45 % 64,260,000 Demographic Data
Incidence of Usage 60 % 38,556,000 U&A Study
Message Reach 60 % 23,133,600 Estimated Number based on the Media Plan
Estimated Number based on Numeric
Availability 80 % 18,506,880
Distribution Target
Concept Test Purchase Intent Top 2 Box result /
Trial 55 % 10,178,784
for Conservative estimate use Top box result
Product Test Purchase Intent Top 2 Box result /
Repeat Purchase 70 % 7,125,149
for Conservative estimate use Top box result

Average Frequency of Usage Per

2.5 Number 96,390,000 U&A Study
Month
Average Amount consumed Per
0.21 Kgs 20,241,900 U&A Study
Occasion

Trial Period Volume Ton/ Month 5,344

Repeat Volume Ton/ Month 3,741

Idea Generation Idea/ Concept Concept Testing Product Testing Pricing Communication Forecasting
Screening Testing
 4317 4214
4201
4046 3931
3776 3661
Forecasting 2817
3341
2620
3507
3125
3392

2350 2161
1885 1720
1539 1336
1030 861
668 562
468 678 550 630 656 721
382 384 385 387
0 13
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Trial Period Volume Repeat Volume Total Volume

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Total Population 168 168 169 169 169 170 170 170 171 171 172 172
Population Aged 10+ 143 143 143 144 144 144 145 145 145 145 146 146
Population SEC A to C 64 64 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 66 66
Incidence of Usage % 60 63 64 65 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66
Population 39 41 41 42 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43
Message Reach % 20 30 40 45 50 55 60 60 60 60 60 60
Population 8 12 17 19 21 24 26 26 26 26 26 26
Availability % 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 80
Population 2 4 7 9 11 13 15 17 18 19 21 21
Trial % 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55
Population 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0
Repeat Purchase % 0 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70
Population 0.0 0.9 1.6 2.5 3.3 4.1 5.0 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0

Trial Period Volume 668 562 678 550 630 656 721 382 384 385 387 13
Repeat Volume 0 468 861 1336 1720 2161 2620 3125 3392 3661 3931 4201
Total Volume 668 1030 1539 1885 2350 2817 3341 3507 3776 4046 4317 4214
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