2008_Seismic microzonation of mega cities

SEISMIC MICROZONATION OF MEGA CITIES
A THESIS
Submitted in partial fulfilment of the
requirements for the award of the degree
of
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
in
EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING
by
JAVED AHMED NAQASH
DEPARTMENT OF EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING

INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY ROORKEE
ROORKEE-247 667 (INDIA)
FEBRUARY, 2008
•*•
INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY ROORKEE, ROORKEE, 2008

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY ROORKEE
ROORKEE
Declaration
I hereby certify that the work being presented in the thesis entitled SEISMIC
MICROZONATION OF MEGA CITIES in partial fulfilment of the requirements
for the award of the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy and submitted in the Department
of Earthquake Engineering of the Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee is
an authentic record of my own work carried out during the period from July 2002 to
February 2008 under the supervision of Dr. D.K. Paul, Professor and Dr. M.L.
Sharma, Associate Professor Department of Earthquake Engineering, Indian Institute
of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee.
The matter presented in this thesis has not been submitted by me for the award of any
other degree of this or any other Institute.
t£37vVv«-»-eA
(Javed Ahmed Naqash)
This is to certify that the above statement made by the candidate is correct to the best
of our knowledge.
rM^t
(M.L. Sharma) (D.K. Paul)
Supervisor Supervisor
Date: //. ^ . 2co8
The Ph.D. Viva-Voce Examination of Mr. Javed Ahmed Naqash, Research Scholar,
has been held on
Supervisors External Examiner

Abstract
The rapid growth of the world's population over the past few decades has led to a
concentration of people, buildings and infrastructure in urban areas. The tendency of such
development in sedimentary valleys has increased their vulnerability to earthquakes, due to
the presence of soft sediments. The importance of estimating the seismic ground motion in
such areas, especially the mega cities, for earthquake risk mitigation is well recognized. One
of the important prerequisites for mitigation of the devastating effects of earthquakes is the
proper assessment of seismic hazard associated with the region and seismic microzonation
incorporating the local site effects.
Seismic microzonation is a process that involves incorporation of geologic, seismologic and
geotechnical concerns into economically, sociologically and politically justifiable and
defensible land-use planning for earthquake effects so that architects and engineers can site
and design structures that are less susceptible to damage during major earthquakes.
Microzonation should provide general guidelines for the types of new structures that are
most suited to an area and it should also provide information on the relative damage
potential for the existing structures in a region. The process involves a multi-disciplinary
approach with major contributions from geology, seismology, geotechnical and structural
engineering. It comprises the assessment of the source and path characteristics of the
earthquakes and the study of the effects of the local geological and geotechnical conditions
on the damages caused by earthquakes at the site. In general terms, it is the process for
estimating the response of soils under earthquake excitations and thus variation of
earthquake characteristics on the ground surface.

Seismic microzonation essentially involves assessment of seismic hazard at bedrock level
on the basis of past earthquake history, geology and tectonics (Seismic Hazard Assessment),
studying the characteristics of the overlying soil and topology of the area (Geotechnical
information and Data), analyzing response of the overlying soil layers to the bedrock
motion and finally microzoning of the area for significant spatial variation of ground motion
and its effects.
The main objective of the present work has been to develop a convenient and cost effective
technique for seismic microzonation of a mega city. Seismic microzonation is a
multidisciplinary task and many studies have been undertaken to accomplish the job.
Studies related to seismotectonics, seismicity, soil properties and local site conditions were
undertaken for estimation of seismic hazard and determination of local amplification of
ground motion. The study area namely Srinagar city which is capital of Jammu and
Kashmir, lies in one of the seismically very active zones, i.e. Himalayas and is placed in
Seismic Zone V in the seismic zonation map of IS-1893.
The present study reviewed the major limitations of seismic microzonation techniques,
determined their causes, and offered optimum solutions. Traditional procedures for seismic
microzonation suffer from several limitations especially in earthquake catalogues,
methodologies for seismic hazard assessment, geotechnical data collection and finally the
methodologies for carrying out seismic microzonation. Also, a methodology is proposed for
data validation by comparing the PGA values obtained from seismic microzonation with
those obtained from observed data on isoseismal maps for major past earthquake events in
the region.
Various methods for seismic microzonation have been reviewed and the limitations have
been discussed. The methodologies adopted for seismic microzonation of Wellington

iii
(New Zealand), Mexico city (Mexico), Perth (Australia), Nasca (Peru), Bogota
(Colombia), Greater Bangkok (Thailand), Armenia (Colombia), Basel (Switzerland),
Delhi and Jabalpur (India), Yeneshir and Silivira (Turkey) have been reviewed.
One of the requirements for seismic hazard assessment is a complete earthquake catalogue
with a uniform magnitude scale where the limitations stem from incompleteness and
heterogeneity of seismicity data which is compiled from various sources. The completeness
has been checked using statistical methods and its effects on hazard parameters have been
demonstrated. The data homogenization has been done using the recommended conversion
formulae. A new catalogue which is complete and homogeneous has been generated and
used for the seismic hazard estimation.
The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology adopted in the present
work uses independent seismogenic sources (based on seismotectonic modeling of the area
thus recognizing the physical sources present), doubly truncated Gutenberg Richter
relationship and Poissonian distribution of earthquake occurrence. The estimated seismic

hazard parameters match with the general earthquake occurrence in the area. The
attenuation relationship has been selected based on the prevalent seismotectonics and its
closeness to the recorded strong motion data in the Himalayan region. At bedrock level the
horizontal component of ground acceleration is almost uniform in the entire Srinagar city
with a variation of a little over 5%. Envelops of the response spectra obtained from 50 sites
have been estimated for four return periods i.e., 225, 475, 1000 and 2500 years.
Quantification of amplification of ground motion in the study area and determination of

natural resonance frequency was the main objective of the site response study. The most
important information for the ground response analysis is a subsurface model that represents
the variation in thickness of the soil layers along with its geotechnical properties. The
iv
methods for geotechnical investigations have been reviewed in detail. Non destructive
method using ambient noise has been implemented for the site investigations which can be
conveniently employed in urban areas and is cost effective and faster than the traditional
methods. A technique to collate borehole data with the results of ambient vibrations has
been used to characterize the site for geotechnical parameters.
The profile ofbedrock based on the analysis of microtremors reveals undulating nature with
several humps and depressions varying from 18 to 57 m. The layered structure of the soil
columns were determined by collating the data from bore holes to estimate the site response
using ID analysis. The relatively denser selection of the test sites in the city allowed
interpolation to get the picture ofthe strong ground motion in the city area for its further use
in the seismic microzonation.
The seismic microzonation of Srinagar city has been carried out using the spectral
accelerations obtained at the surface. While at 30 out of the 49 sites studied in the city,
deamplification of motion occurred during the propagation of waves from bedrock to

surface with surface PGA values ranging between 0.166 g and 0.196g for a return period of
475 years, the strong motion got amplified at the remaining 19 sites and the maximum value
of surface PGA was estimated to be 0.245g. The southern part of the city, where surface
PGA values range between 0.166g and 0.195g, is relatively seismically safer for future
development than the rest of the city. Three seismic microzones have been proposed for
Srinagar city with PGA varying as 120, 150 and 180 gals, 170, 210, 250 gals, 250, 300 and
350 gals and 370, 430 and 500 gals for return periods of225, 475, 1000 and 2500 years,
respectively. The patterns of seismic microzones reveal the dominance of the effect of local
site conditions onthe strong ground motion estimated at the surface.
The general structures in Srinagar city are two and three storeyed buildings. Srinagar city
has also been divided into two seismic microzones based on spectral acceleration with 0.3
sec time period for 475 years return period which pertains to the recommendations for
structures of relatively smaller heights and belongs to the more general types of the
buildings found in the city. Similarly, the city has been divided into three seismic
microzones based on spectral acceleration with 1.0 sec time period for 475 years return
period which pertains to the recommendations for relatively taller structures.
VI
Acknowledgement
The research work presented in this thesis was carried out from August 2002 to January 2008 in
the Department of Earthquake Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee,
India. Many people have put in their contributions towards bringing this research work to the
successful completion.
First and foremost, I wish to affirm my earnest acknowledgement, deep indebtedness and
heartfelt gratitude to my supervisors Dr. M.L Sharma and Dr. D. K. Paul of the Department of
Earthquake Engineering, I I T Roorkee for their inspiring guidance, unfailing support and
benign encouragement throughout the process of this research work. It is because of their great
care that this thesis could be brought to the present form. They have always been unhesitant in
sharing their knowledge and experience with me through discussions and consultations. I really
feel privileged to have worked under their supervision.
I take this opportunity to express my gratitude and indebtedness to fellow researchers,

Mr.Arjun Kumar, Mr. Naveen Pareekh, Mr. Ratnesh Kumar, Ms Shipra Singh and Ms Shilpa
Pal for their sincere support and help during the process of this research work. The help
provided by Mr. Mohammad Shariq and Mr. Mohammad Abdul Hai Zahid is earnestly
acknowledged.
I also thank my friends Mr. Abdul Hamid Bhat , Mr. N. Rama Rao ,Mr. Mohammad Yousuf
Shah, Mr. Ishfaq Beigh , Mr. Asiafullah, Mr. Mohammad Kaleem, Mr. Mohammad Shahiq and
Mr. Prahlad Prasad for giving a pleasant company during my stay at Roorkee. I fail to express
in words my gratitude to my special friends Dr. Amjad Masood and Dr. Umesh Kumar Sharma
for their help, encouragement and pleasing company during the entire course ofthis work.
vii
I am indebted to my beloved parents for their care and inspiration throughout my life. They <-
persuaded me to join this research program. Unfortunately my father expired during the course
ofthis research work. Thanks are also due to my brother Zubar Ahmed and my sisters for their
encouragement and love they provided me all through these years.
My wife Fehmeeda and my sons Aamir and Aymen deserve a special mention. They lived
patiently with me in difficult conditions and provided a lively atmosphere to make our stay
comfortable at Roorkee.
Finally, last but not the least, Iam grateful to Almighty Allah whose blessings have helped me
in working for this thesis and giving it the present shape.
(Javed Ahmed Naqash)
vin
Contents
Page No.
Declaration i
Abstract a
Acknowledgement vii
Contents ix
List ofFigures xiii
List of Tables xix
Notations xxi
Chapter 1: Introduction 1-7
1.1 Preamble 1
1.2 Seismic Microzonation 3
1.3 Objective 4
1.4 Scope of the Thesis 5
1.5 Thesis Outline 6
Chapter 2: Literature Review 8-52
2.1 Introduction 8
> 2.2.1 Amplification of Ground Motion 11
2.2.2 Liquefaction 11
2.2.3 Landslides 12
2.3 Seismic Zonation at Bedrock Level 12
2.3.1 Seismic Hazard Estimation 12
2.4 Local Site Effects 27
2.4.1 Methods of Estimating Local Site Effects 28

\ 2.4.1.1 Empirical Methods 28
Geology and Intensity 28
Geology and Amplification 29
Geotechnical Parameter and Amplification 31
Surface Topology 32
ix
2.4.1.2 Analytical Methods 33
2.4.1.3 Experimental Methods 34
Microtremor Measurements 34
Weak Motion Data 36
Reference Site Technique 37
Non Reference Site Technique 38
2.4.1.4 Strong Motion Data 39
2.5 Site Characterization 39
2.5.1 Geotechnical Investigation 39
2.5.2 Geophysical Investigation 40
2.6 Seismic Microzonation of Mega Cities 47
Chapter 3: Seismic Hazard Estimation 53-96
3.1 Introduction 53
3.2 Global Geological Setting 53
3.3 Regional Geological and Tectonic Setup 56
3.4 Seismicity 64
3.5 Treatment of Seismicity Data 68
3.5.1 Homogenization of Catalogue 70
3.5.2 Completeness of Data 71
3.5.2.1 Frequency Magnitude Recurrence Relation 74
3.6 Seismotectonic Modeling 77
3.6.1 Random Seismicity Method 78
3.6.2 Seismotectonic Province Method 78
3.6.3 Geologic Slip Rate Method 79
3.7 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) 86
3.7.1 Maximum Likelihood Estimates of Hazard Parameters 89
Chapter 4: Strong Ground Motion at Bedrock 97-112

4.1 Introduction 97
4.2 Strong Ground Motion Attenuation Relationship 98

4.3 Prediction of Strong Ground Motion at Bedrock Level 104
4.3.1 Strong Ground Motion Prediction for Himalayan Region 108
4.3.2 Strong Ground Motion Prediction for Srinagar City 110
Chapter 5: Site Characterization 113-141

5.1 Introduction 113
5.2 Methods for Estimating Site Response 114

5.2.1 Numerical Methods 114
5.2.2 Empirical Methods 115

5.2.3 Experimental Methods 117
5.2.3.1 Nakamura H/V Ratio Method 117
5.3 Site Response Estimation in Srinagar City 120

5.3.1 Equipment Details 122
5.3.2 Data Collection 122
5.3.3 Data Processing 124

5.3.4 Fundamental Frequency of Resonance 126
5.4 Soil Properties 133
Chapter 6: Microzonation of Srinagar City 142-172

6.1 Introduction 142
6.2 Estimation of Strong Ground Motion at Surface 142

6.2.1 Single Soil Layer 143
6.2.2 Solution of Single Layer Problem 145
6.2.3 Multiple Soil Layers 146
i
6.2.4 Equivalent Linear Analysis 148
6.3 Soil Models 151
6.4 Generation of Spectrum Compatible Time History 152

6.4.1 Band and Notch Filter 153
6.4.2 Envelop Function 153

6.5 Estimation of Strong Ground Motion at Surface in Srinagar City 155
i, 6.6 Seismic Microzonation of Srinagar City 166
6.7 Validation of Results 171
Chapter 7: Conclusions 173-177

7.1 General 173
XI
7.2.1 Treatment ofSeismicity Data 174
7.2.2 Seismic Hazard Estimation 174
7.2.3 Site Characterization 175
7.2.4 Seismic Microzonation ofSrinagar City 176
7.3 Recommendations for Further Studies 177
Bibliography 178-201
xn
List of Figures
Figure No Title Page No
Fig. 2.1. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment 17
> Fig. 2.2 Microtremor method based on maximum and average period
34
(Kanaietal.,1966)
Fig. 2.3 Microtremor method based on maximum amplitude and

35
predominant period (Kanai et al 1966)
Fig. 2.4 Layout of testing setup of the SAS W method 42
Fig. 2.5 SASW method- field configuration 44
Fig. 2.6 Schematic diagram of data acquisition 46
Fig. 3.1. The Indian plate colliding with the Eurasian plate 54
Fig. 3.2 Model of the Himalayan collision zone indicating the location of
historical large earthquakes and a potential seismic gap. (Bilham et 55
al.,2001)
Fig. 3.3 The Himalayan collision zone after Bilham et al. (2001) 57
Fig. 3.4 Geological setup of the North Himalayas around Kashmir (After
60
GSI Atlas 2000)
Fig. 3.5 Tectonic set up of the area around Srinagar city 63
Fig. 3.6 Seismicity of the Kashmir region and it's vicinity for the period 67
1552-2005
xiu
Fig. 3.7 Estimation of the mean of annual number of events as a function of

76
sample length and magnitude class
Fig 3.8 Frequency magnitude distribution for- Case I biased data set
76
Case II complete data set
Fig. 3.9 Seismogenic zones in the region 80
Fig. 3.10 Seismogenic Zone I- Sargodha Lahore Delhi Ridge 81
Fig. 3.11 Seismogenic Zone II - Salt Range Thrust, Kallar Kabar Fault 81
Fig. 3.12 Seismogenic Zone III-Attock Fault 81 »
Fig. 3.13 Seismogenic Zone IV-Jhelum Fault, Mangla Fault, Shinkiari Fault 82
Fig. 3.14 Seismogenic Zone V-Tarbela Fault, Peshawar Fault 82
Fig. 3.15 Seismogenic Zone VI -Main Boundary Thrust 82
Fig. 3.16 Seismogenic Zone VII -Main Mantle Thrust 83
Fig.3.17 Seismogenic Zone IX -Jwala Mukhi Thrust 83
Fig. 3.18 Seismogenic Zone VIII - Main Karakoram Thrust 83
Fig. 3.19 Seismogenic Zone X - Main Boundary Thrust, Drang Thrust 83
Fig. 3.20 Seismogenic Zone XI - Kishtwar Fault 84
Fig. 3.21 Seismogenic Zone XIII - Main Central Thrust 84 A
Fig. 3.22 Seismogenic Zone XII - Shyok Suture, Indus Suture 84
XIV
Fig. 3.23 Seismogenic Zone XIV-Sunder Nagar Fault, Part of MCT 84
Fig. 3.24 Seismogenic Zone XV - Karakoram Fault 85
Fie 3 25 The return Periods of earthquakes of all magnitudes in different

seismogenic zones 94
Fig. 3.26 Probability of occurrence of earthquakes of all magnitudes in all

95
Seismogenic zones In 50 years

95

96
Fig. 4.1 Comparison between actual and the predicted PGA values
102
(using Youngs et al.) for Chamoli Earthquake
Fig. 4.2 Comparison between actual actual and the predicted PGA values
103
(using Youngs et al.) for Dharamshala Earthquake
i
Fig. 4.3 Comparison between actual and the predicted PGA values
103
(using Youngs et al.) for Uttarkashi Earthquake
Fig 4.4 PGA values using Youngs et al. (1997) used in the present study for
104
PHSA
Fig. 4.5 Exceedance rates in the study area as computed using PSHA 108
Fig. 4.6 PGA (in gals) contours for 225 years at bed rock level 109
xv
Figure No Title Page No >
Fig. 4.9 PGA (in gals) contours for 2500 years at bed rock level 109 >.
Fig. 4.10 PGA (in gals) contours for 225 years at bed rock level for Srinagar
111
city
Fig. 4.11 PGA ( in gals) contours for 475 years at bed rock level for Srinagar
111
city
Fig. 4.12 PGA (in gals) contours for 1000 years at bed rock level for Srinagar
111 f
city
Fig. 4.13 PGA( in gals) contours for 2500 years at bed rock level for Srinagar
111
city
Fig 4.14 Response spectra for 49 sites (as shown in Fig. 4.10 to 4.13) for a
112
return period of 225 years.
Fig. 4.15 Envelops of the Response spectra considered for a return period of
112
475, 1000 and 2500 years return periods for Srinagar city.
Fig. 5.1 The sites selected in Srinagar city for collecting the data on
124
microtremors.
Fig. 5.2 H/V vs. frequency curves for the measurement stations 127-131
Fig. 5.3 The predominant frequency as computed using H/V method for the
132
Srinagar city
XVI
Fig. 5.4 The amplification factors at predominant frequency as computed

133
using H/V method for the Srinagar city
Fig. 5.5 Depth to the bedrock as estimated using local soil data and the H/V
137
method
Fig.5.6 Soil Profiles at Sites (a-f) 139-141
Fig. 6.1 Single soil layer over half space 143
Fig. 6.2 Multiple soil layers over half space 147
Fig. 6.3 Average shear modulus over an entire cycle of loading 149
Fig.6.4 Spectrum Compatible Time History for IS1893: 2002 Spectrum 155
Fig. 6.5 Matching of Computed and IS1893: 2002 Spectra 155
Fig. 6.6 Spectrum compatible time history for Srinagar city for 475 year
156
return period
> Fig. 6.7 Deaggregation table for the Srinagar area for PGA estimated for 475
[56
year return period
Fig. 6.8 PGA (in gals) at the surface for 225 years in Srinagar city 165
>
XVI1
Figure No Title Page No *
Fig. 6.12 Seismic microzones for PGA (in gals ) for Srinagar city for various
return periods. The sites taken for the site characterization are also 167
shown in the figure.
Fig. 6.13 Spectral acceleration at 0.3 sec for 475 year return period in
169
Srinagar city
Fig. 6.14 Spectral acceleration at 1.0 sec for 475 year return period in
169
Srinagar city
Fig. 6.15 Seismic microzonation for spectral acceleration with 0.3 sec time
170
period for 475 years return period in Srinagar city
Fig. 6.16 Seismic microzonation for spectral acceleration with 1.0 sec time
170
period for 475 years return period in Srinagar city
Fig. 6.17 Isoseismal maps of earthquakes events that occurred around

172
Srinagar city
>
XVIII
List of Tables
Table No Title Page No
Table 2.1 Correlations Between Surface Geology and Intensity

29
Increments (TC4-ISSMGE, 1999)
Table 2.2 Correlations between Surface Geology and Relative

30-31
Amplification
Table 2.3 Correlation between Average Shear Wave Velocity and

32
Relative Amplification
Table 2.4 Range of Frequency and Amplification Factors along with

36
Damage Potential in Marina District
Table 3.1 Event Magnitude Distribution 65
Table 3.2 Number of Earthquakes Reported in each Decade in the

69
Time Period 1552-2000.
Table 3.3 Rate of Occurrence (N/T) as a Function of Time Interval for

Different Magnitude Classes. Here N is the cumulative
75
number of earthquakes in the time interval T, for subinterval
of the 450-year sample.
Table 3.4 Number of Earthquakes of Different Magnitude Ranges (M>5) 87
Table 3.5 Details of earthquakes in the Seismogenic Source Zones

88
used for PSHA
Table 3.6 Details of the Input Data for all the 15 Seismogenic Zones 88
xix
Table No Title Page No ->
Table 3.7 Return periods ofEarthquakes in Various Magnitude

92
Table 3.8 Estimated Seismicity Parameters for Different Seismogenic

92
Zones of the Region
Table 3.9 Earthquake Magnitudes for Different Return Period 93
Table 4.1 Constants for Youngs et al. (1997) for Rock 101
Table.4.2 Constants for Youngs et al. (1997) for Rock 101
Table 4.3 Geographical Coordinates ofSeismogenic Zones 105-107
123
Table 5.1 Details of Measurement Stations
131
Table 5.2 Local Site Properties from Microtremor Data
134
Table 5.3 Soil properties of Various Sites in Srinagar
134
Table 5.4 Bedrock Depth at the Sites
135
Table 5.5 Shear Wave Velocities in Soil Materials
+
136
Table 5.6 Comparison of Bedrock Depth at Sites
138
Table 5.7 Properties of Soil at all Sites
Table 6.1 The values ofDifferent Parameters used in Proshake for all 155
the Sites
Table 6.2 Estimates of Strong Ground Motion at Various Layers 157-163 A
XX
Notations
*•
The following notations are used in the thesis
Xm Mean annual rate of exceedance
m Magnitude
w0 Lower threshold magnitude
Y Ground motion parameter

M Magnitude of the earthquake
R Distance from the source to the site under consideration
Pt Other parameters such as earthquake source etc.
Fy iy) Value of the CDF at mand r

r Given distance
M Average number of occurrences of the event in that time interval

X Average rate of occurrence of the event
T
/ Time period of interest
fM (m) and fR (r) Probability density functions for magnitude and distance
N Potential earthquake sources
v Threshold magnitude exceedance
rk Different source-to-site distances
NM and NR Orignents
-*
y* Probability of exceedance
T Time period
n Intensity increment
Vm Average shear wave velocity over a depth of 30m

Vs+ Average shear wave velocity over a depth of one quarter wave
length for a one second period wave
>
Ar Topographical amplification factor
I and i Gradients of the lower and upper slopes
J Event
R,j \f) Ground motion

Ej (f) Source function
xxi
p,M Path contribution between the source and local site
s,(f) Local site contribution

*
vs Shear wave velocity
G Shear modulus
Do Small strain damping ratio

a Attenuation coefficient
V Attenuation velocity
f,N Frequency r
A(t) Travel time
AO(/) Phase difference
Ad Distance between each pair of receivers

XR Wavelength
z and// Depth
h Thickness
J
A Spectral amplification
mh Body-wave magnitude
Ms Surface wave magnitude

a and b Constants
k Number of years covered by the data sample

n Number of unit time intervals
*
°x Standard deviation
mmm Threshold magnitude
F{m) Cumulative distribution function
T, Time span
P Parameter
y Spectral Acceleration
A
r
rup Closest distance to rupture
ZT Source type
p Density
*?(/) Horizontal spectrum of the body wave
xxn
A. Horizontal to vertical ratio due to surface
Jho Fundamental frequency

4
{ Damping ratio
0) Circular frequency of harmonic wave
k' Complex wave number
zs Depth of soil
g; Complex shear modulus of the soil
< Complex impedance ratio

k Wave number
F{co) Transfer function
<tjM>t>jM Functions
Rr Strain reduction factor
K0 Earth pressure coefficient
x(t) Stationary accelerogram
E{t) Envelop function
Z(t) Non-stationary accelerogram
H(t) Heavy side function
Tw Total duration of generated time history
'•MM Local modified Mercalli site intensity

*
us Displacement in soil
"r Displacement in rock

T Shear stress
r Shear strain
AandB Constants
>
XXlll
Chapter 1
Introduction
1.1 Preamble
The rapid growth of the world's population over the past few decades has led to
concentration ofpopulation, buildings and infrastructure in urban areas. The tendency of

urban areas to be developed in sedimentary valleys has increased their vulnerability to
earthquakes, due to the presence of soft sediments. Recent earthquakes, such as the 1985
Michoacan, Mexico event, the 1988 Spitak, Armenia event, the 1989 Loma Prieta event
and the most recent event of Bhuj 2001 have clearly demonstrated that local soil
conditions have a significant influence on the ground motion and the damage pattern. The
importance of estimating the seismic ground motion in such areas for earthquake risk
mitigation is accepted world-wide.
The seismic vulnerability of mega cities which are the center of developmental activities
is rapidly increasing due to this concentrated population outburst. According to a
conservative estimate, more than 15 million lives have been lost and damage worth a
hundred billion dollars has been inflicted in the recorded history by the earthquakes. The
need pertaining to earthquake risk mitigation, especially for mega cities, can never be
over emphasized. The upcoming of more and more cities as mega cities in India make it
imperative to carry out such exercise in wake of recent spurt in seismic activity in Indian
region. Disastrous earthquakes in India like Assam 1897 (M=8.7), Kangra 1905 (M=8.0),
X Bihar-Nepal 1934 (M=8.4), Assam-Tibet 1950 (M=8.7), Uttarkashi 1991 (M=6.5), Latur
1993 (M=6.4), Jabalpur 1997 (M=6.0), Chamoli 1999 (M=6.8), Bhuj 2001 (M=7.6) and
Muzaffarabad 2005 (M=7.4) have shown that our society has to learn how to sufficiently
mitigate the risk associated with the occurrence of earthquakes.
1
Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements show that India and southern Tibet
converge at 20 ± 3 mm/year. Bilham et al., 2001, divided the Himalaya into 10 imaginary
sections, each around 220 km in length. At the observed convergence rate of 20 mm/year,
at least 6 of these 10 regions have an accumulated slip potential of about 4 m. This is
equivalent to the slip believed to be associated with the 1934 Bihar earthquake that killed
more thanl 0,000 people. Though the Bureau of Indian Standard came up with a Seismic
Zoning map of India, it is not possible to predict with certainty what ground acceleration
will be experienced by structures situated in these zones. It is the intensity of shaking
coupled with site-specific effects that actually buffet buildings due to the impact of an
earthquake.
The northern most state in India, i.e., Jammu and Kashmir lies in one of the seismically
most active belts of the world namely Himalayas. One of the mega cities in this region is y
Srinagar which is the capital of J&K and is the center of many developmental activities in
the area. Exposure and vulnerability to the effects of earthquakes in the Srinagar city in
Kashmir are not known sufficiently and the vulnerability is increasing as the growth of
the urban center is very rapid and most of the times unplanned.
The places like Afghanistan-Russia boarder, Tadzkistan, Pakistan, India-China boarder, £

Northwestern Kashmir and Eastern Kashmir are all seismically very active areas. The
region has experienced many damaging earthquakes in the past such as Kangra
Earthquake (April 04, 1905; M=8.0); Northwest Himalayan (Rawalpindi) Earthquake
(Feb. 02, 1929; M=7.1); Kashmir Earthquake (May 30, 1885; M=7.0); Chamba
Earthquake (June 22, 1945; M=6.5); Pattan Earthquake (Dec. 28, 1974; M=5.9); x
Anantnag Earthquake (Feb. 20, 1967; M=5.5); Badgam Earthquake (Sept. 02, 1963;
M=5.1) and Muzaffarabad Earthquake (Oct. 8, 2005 M=7.4).
According to the Seismic Zoning map (IS: 1893), the entire country is divided into four
Seismic Zones pertaining to various expected probable intensities of earthquake
occurrence. Srinagar city is placed in Seismic Zone V, the most severe zone. On account
of the seismicity rate, the relatively low return periods of the damaging earthquake and
the importance of estimating the seismic ground motion in such areas for earthquake risk
mitigation, the city ofSrinagar is a perfect case to carry out seismic microzonation.
1.2 Seismic Microzonation
The damages caused by earthquakes are generally controlled by three factors; earthquake
source and path characteristics, local geological and geotechnical site conditions,
structural design and construction features. Seismic microzonation can be considered as
the assessment ofthe first two factors. In general terms, it is the process for estimating the
response of soils under earthquake excitations and thus variation of earthquake
characteristics on the ground surface. Seismic microzonation is the initial phase of
earthquake risk mitigation and requires multi-disciplinary approach with major
contributions from geology, seismology, geotechnical and structural engineering. The
final output should contain recommendations suitable for application by local
administrators, urban planners and engineers (Ansal and Biro, 2004). In the last decade,
both the increase in availability of experimental and instrumental data and the
developments in the evaluation of ground conditions and ground amplification analyses

(Hartzell et al., 1997) have led to significant developments in seismic microzonation
studies.
X
As a result of the heterogeneity of the earth's crust, seismic waves undergo multiple
reflections, refractions and transformations on their path from the earthquake source to
the site of observation. This phenomenon is most pronounced near the earth surface,
where there is vast variation in geological and geotechnical conditions. As a result,
whenever an earthquake strikes, the pattern of destruction follows the invisible lines of
±
the geophysical and geotechnical ground properties; one building being destroyed, while
a neighbouring building of similar construction remains intact. Mapping the effect of
local site conditions is the main task of microzonation. In the present study the focus is
mainly on the estimation of seismic hazard, the bed rock motion below the Srinagar city
and the phenomena associated with the amplification of seismic wave energy, as the
knowledge about the seismic wave amplification allows a further determination of
nonlinear or secondary effects.
A microzonation study involves the determination of regional seismic hazard- the
expected ground shaking- using the method of the probabilistic seismic hazard estimates
or the technique of deterministic seismic hazard analysis. The site effects are then
understood as a frequency dependent amplification of the ground motion, relative to a real
or virtual reference site for which the regional seismic hazard is known. Methods to
assess the amplification can be divided into empirical and indirect approaches (modeling).
In absence of any standardized method each study has to make the best out of the
constraints given by the site and the available information.
1.3 Objectives
The main objective of the present work is to develop a convenient and cost effective
technique for seismic microzonation of a Mega city. Seismic microzonation is a
multidisciplinary task and many aspects of it have to be studied in detail to accomplish
the job. Studies related to seismotectonics, seismicity, soil properties and local site
conditions have to be undertaken for estimation of seismic hazard and determination of
local amplification of ground motion. The study includes:

(i) Review and compilation of seismicity of the North-West Himalayan region
(ii) Development of the seismotectonic model and modeling of attenuation
characteristics,
(iii) Critical review and studies related to Strong Ground Motion (SGM) at bedrock,
ground amplification and existing seismic microzonation methodologies,
(iv) Studies related to ground amplification,
(v) Studies related to modification of strong ground motion as per the geotechnical
properties of the soil column,
(vi) Suggestion for improvements in existing seismic microzonation methodologies
and their application for seismic microzonation of Srinagar city with respect to
ground shaking parameters.
1.4 Scope of the Thesis
The present work is mainly aimed at analyzing the methods for carrying out seismic
microzonation of mega studies with a case study of the microzonation of Srinagar city. It
involves the study of seismological and geotechnical details of the area which form the
>• important input for seismic microzonation. The seismotectonic modeling has been carried
out considering the geological and tectonic setup of the area along with its seismicity and
other geophysical and geological anomalies. The maximum likelihood estimation of the
seismic hazard parameters have been done for each seismogenic source present in the
area and the effect of the same on the Srinagar city has been estimated in terms of ground
X
motion from specific seismogenic sources and the combined effect of all the seismogenic
sources. The site characterization has been done by acquiring the data on microtremors
and a non destructive method has been used. Wave propagation studies have been
conducted to estimate the ground acceleration at surface at different sites. The seismic
microzonation has been done in terms of strong ground motion for various exceedance
levels. The microzonation maps are prepared for Srinagar city considering the general
construction practices in the region.
1.5 Thesis outline
The thesis comprises seven chapters. Chapter 2 presents a brief review of literature about
seismic microzonation, seismicity, ground motion parameters, site effects and site
characterization. Various aspects related to seismic microzonation and its methodology,
different procedures of seismic microzonation adopted in different parts of the world are
briefly described.
Chapter 3 describes the geological aspects and historical seismicity of the study area.
Treatment of seismicity data and Seismotectonic modeling of the region is also presented. r
The various seismic hazard parameters for the individual seismogenic zones of the region
are estimated and presented.
Chapter 4 presents the estimation of peak ground acceleration at bedrock for potential
earthquake sources through attenuation relationships. The spectral acceleration at bedrock
at the sites is determined and presented. J»
In Chapter 5, the site characterization through microtremor measurements has been
discussed. The collection and analysis (data processing) of microtremors and their use in
determination of bedrock depths at various sites in the Srinagar city is described in detail.
The analysis of soil data collected from different agencies and its collation with
experimental data collected in the present study is also presented. k.
Chapter 6 is related to propagation of waves through different soil layers to the surface
and estimation of spectral acceleration after amplification/deamplification. Generation of
spectrum compatible time histories from spectral acceleration is also discussed. The
different acceleration parameters at different soil layers, as obtained through analysis, are
also presented. Contour maps for different parameters such as bedrock depth,
amplification factors and PGA are also included. The seismic microzonation maps for the
Srinagar city are presented in this chapter.
Finally the summary of the work and conclusions drawn from the seismic microzonation
studies along with the recommendations for further research work are highlighted in
Chapter 7 of the thesis.
+•
Chapter 2
Literature Review
2.1 Introduction
^ One of the important prerequisites for mitigation of the devastating effects of earthquakes
in aregion is the accurate assessment of seismic hazard associated with the region and the
seismic microzonation. Seismic microzonation, wherein an area is subdivided into smaller
zones, depending upon site-specific seismic response, is an effective method for
mitigation of this natural disaster. Seismic microzonation comprises of different aspects
like the seismic hazard assessment, site characterization and microzoning the strong
ground motion etc. Since its formulation in 1968, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard
Assessment (PSHA) (Cornell, 1968) has been one of the most widely used tools to
evaluate the threat of seismic events in earthquake-prone zones. The product of a PSHA
is ahazard curve for aspecified site representing the values of aselected strong ground
motion parameter having a fixed probability of exceedance in a specified period Each
value takes into account the integrated effect of all the earthquakes of different sizes
occurring in different seismic source zones (i.e., points, lines, areas, volumes, and faults)
with different probabilities of occurrence.
The next important step in seismic microzonation is the site characterization and inclusion
oflocal site effects into the strong ground motion for its prediction at the surface. Good
reviews on the subject of local site effects are presented by Faccioli (1991), Finn (1991),
Kudo (1995) Willis and Siliva, (1998); Paolucci et al, (2000), Sokolov et al, (2000);
Chavez-Garcia and Faccioli, (2000); Semblat et al, (2000); Singh et al, (2001); Slob et
8
al,(2002); Mukhupadhyay e/ al, (2002), Stewart e? a/.,(2003); Topal et al,(2003);
Pitilakis, (2004), Tuladhar e/ a/., (2004) and Gaetano et al. (2005).
4
This Chapter summarizes the various techniques and methodologies used in seismic
hazard assessment, seismic zonation of strong ground motion, local site characterization
and effects, seismic microzonation techniques and some case studies of seismic
microzonation of mega cities.
A review of the literature related to the above mentioned aspects is presented and
discussed herewith.
Any large region needs subdivision for studying and understanding in details the
variations of some characteristics of interest within that region. The greater the accuracy
of details needed, the finer are the sizes of the zones required. This zoning may be done
with respect to many factors such as contours of elevation of ground, rain fall, population
density, political boundaries of nations etc.
In geotechnical earthquake engineering, such zoning may be done with respect to various
manifestations of seismic ground motion and the factors influencing the same.
Microzonation of a region is defined as subdivisions of the region into smaller regions or
microzones such that any characteristic of interest may be considered to be reasonably
uniform over the microzone. When such factors are related to seismic activity, the process
is called Seismic Microzonation.
When the area under consideration is very large, the first attempt of seismic zoning may
-V
result into very coarse zoning which may be also called as Seismic Macro Zoning. The
Seismic Zoning map of India presented in IS: 1893-2001 may be considered to be typical
example wherein each seismic zone covers several hundreds of square km of area.
Obviously, the characteristics of ground and factors affecting the seismic ground motions
may vary considerably from place to place with in each zone. The actual value of seismic
>
coefficient may be somewhat larger or smaller than what is assigned to aplace within the
seismic zone. It is obvious that for a better picture of seismic zoning, each such area
needs to be sub-divided into smaller regions or microzones to give due regard to local
variations offactors that influence the seismic zoning.
Seismic zonation of any region needs knowledge of factors which affect seismic ground
motions. Gathering such scientific information is expensive. Larger the population which
shares such cost, the more economical and affordable it would be for that community. As
such microzonation is strongly influenced by socio-economic factors. Urban population
centers with industrial activities qualify for seismic microzonation as this results in
j microzonation at acheaper per capita cost. As such, microzonation activities are essential
for giving information for better protection from earthquakes to masses at affordable cost
per head. It is essential to create awareness and to educate them about the need for
supporting seismic microzonation.
Though microzonation is popular in industrially advanced countries, it has not been so in

India in spite of its being urgently needed. India is a developing nation with a large
population and needs protection from earthquake hazard at a low per capita expenditure.
Fortunately, it is possible to do so through microzonation studies. The large population
helps in limiting the cost perhead and improves the cost benefit ratio.
Over the past few decades, considerable efforts have been put in towards obtaining
realistic assessment ofone ofthe important components ofthe seismic microzonation, the
seismic hazard. Seismic microzonation is a procedure for estimating the total seismic
hazard from ground shaking and related phenomena by taking into account the effects of
local site conditions. For example, subsurface and topographic conditions can amplify or
10
de-amplify the peak ground acceleration which would be expected for firm ground at a
particular location, and these local effects may change the entire scenario and is reflected X
in a seismic microzonation map. For seismic hazard maps to be effective, they must be
specifically developed and appropriate for the intended end use.
In addition to the seismic microzonation being used for the soil characteristics, local
geology, surface and subsurface water levels/water table, geophysical anomalies,
estimated strong ground motion at the bed rock and/or at the surface and the subsurface *
characteristics, seismic microzonation studies may also include any one or all of the
following effects of seismic activity:
2.2.1 Amplification of Ground Motion
The localized amplification of ground motion due to subsurface and/or topographic T
conditions at a site is also considered to be a seismic hazard over and above the firm
ground seismic motions of the area. Amplification of ground motion often occurs at sites
overlain by thick, soft soil deposits, especially when the predominant period of the
earthquake motions matches the predominant period of the ground.
X
2.2.2 Liquefaction
The studies may be directed towards the behavior of soils subjected to earthquake motion.
Liquefaction refers to the loss of shearing resistance or the development of excessive
strains resulting from transient or repeated disturbances of saturated cohesionless soils.
Liquefaction induced horizontal ground movements can range from minor oscillations
during ground shaking with no permanent displacement, to small permanent
displacements, to lateral sliding and flow slides. Liquefaction can also induce vertical
11
ground movements (settlements) by rearrangement of loose soils into a denser
configuration.
>
2.2.3 Landslides
This includes all types of seismically induced landslides (e.g., soil slumps, rock falls,
debris flows, rock avalanches), except for those occurring directly as a result of ground
1 liquefaction.
2.3 Seismic zonation at bed rock level
Seismic zonation at bedrock level is the process by which the study area is subdivided
into seismic zones having similar seismic hazard based on historical and predicted
T
intensity ofground motion, which is expressed in terms ofspectral acceleration and/or the
peak horizontal ground acceleration or velocity at the bed rock level. The zonation at the
bedrock level is the result ofthe seismic hazard estimation ofthe seismogenic source in
and around the study area, its effects at the site or the study area considered for seismic
microzonation for which appropriate strong motion attenuation relationships are used.
The same is sometimes accomplished using Green's function wherein the wave
propagation theory is used along with the source modeling.
2.3.1 Seismic Hazard Estimation
Seismic hazard describes the potential for earthquake related natural phenomena such as ground
shaking which could result in adverse consequences to society such as the destruction of buildings
or the loss of life. Seismic risk is the probability of occurrence of these consequences. The output
of a seismic hazard analysis could be a description of the intensity of shaking or a map which
12
shows levels of ground shaking in various parts of the country that have an equal chance of being
exceeded. The output of seismic risk analysis could be the probability of damage (in rupees) from
an earthquake or probabilities of fatalities due to seismically induced nuclear power plant
accident. Seismic risk is a probabilistic expression of the product of seismic hazard and its
consequences. One needs to determine seismic hazard in order to further consider it for seismic
microzonation.
Many procedures for estimating the seismic potential and its hazard parameters are +
available in literature. Seismic hazards may be assessed deterministically, as when a

particular earthquake scenario is assumed, or probabilistically, in which uncertainties in
earthquake size, location, time of occurrence are explicitly considered.
Most probabilistic seismic hazard assessment procedures require the demarcation of
independent seismogenic sources, and their hazard parameters such as activity rate and
level of completeness, Guttenberg- Richter parameter b, and maximum possible
magnitude Mmax. These parameters are then used to assess the probabilistic seismic
hazard. Such exercise has not been carried out for large part of the Indian subcontinent.
Most of the work reported have used seismic catalogues which are highly uncertain and
incomplete. Most of the available earthquake catalogues usually contain two types of
information: macroseismic observations of major seismic events that occurred over a
period of few hundred years, and complete instrumental data for relatively short periods
of time, say the last fifty years at the most. Classical methods which are generally used
for the estimation of seismic hazard parameters (e.g., Weichert, 1980; Dong et al; 1984)
are not suitable for this type of data, because of the incompleteness of the macroseismic *•
part of acatalogue or because of difficulties in estimating its growing incompleteness in

earlier times.
13
In the last two or three decades, increasing attention has been paid to obtain realistic
assessment of seismic hazard (Kiremidjian and Shah, 1975; Mortgat and Shah, 1979;
X
McCann, 1981; Wesnousky et al, 1984; Paul C. Rizzo et al, 1995; Olshanskey, 1997;
Cramer et al, 2002, Cramer and Kumar 2003, Parvez et al, 2003, Rajendran and
Rajendran, 2005, Ameer et al, 2005; Kumar 2007). The three non-Poisson models -
Weibul model, Gaussian model and lognormal model have also been used for estimating
A seismic hazard (Hagiwara, 1974, Rikitake, 1975, Brillinger, 1982; Kiremidjian and
Anagnos, 1984, Nishenko, 1985, Johnston and Nava, 1985, Rikitake, 1999, Ferraes,
2004, Tripathi 2006; Kumar 2007). Some practical methods for earthquake prediction are
reviewed in Rikitake (1976), and a thorough statistical discussion is presented in Vere-
Jones (1970). Mazzoti and Adams (2004) use a Monte Carlo simulation to account for the
uncertainties on probability, time and standard deviation and estimated the means and
standard deviations for three possible distributions namely normal, lognormal and
Weibull (Mazzotti and Adams, 2004). Allen (1995) laid emphasis on the use of
probabilistic approach for assessment of seismic hazard as this approach represents the
only realistic hope of allowing efforts of the society to be concentrated and prioritized in
a quantitative, scientifically defensible and socially equitable manner.
Seismic hazard studies of different tectonic regions have been carried out by various
workers (Bath, 1983; Markopoulos and Burton, 1985; Papazachos, 1988; Papadopoulos
and Voidomatis, 1987; Papadopoulos and Kijko, 1991, for the Aegean region; Kijko and
Sellevoll, 1989, 1992, for western Norway coastal region, Gupta and Srivastava, 1990;
Shanker and Singh, 1995; Shanker and Sharma, 1997, 1998, Sharma, 2003; Parvez et al,
2003, Iyengar and Raghukanth, 2004, Iyengar and Ghosh 2004, Kumar 2007 for
territory of Indian subcontinent).
14
One of the suitable methods for analyzing the macroseismic part of the catalogue is the
extreme distribution, extended to allow for varying time intervals from which maximum ^
magnitudes are selected. This method of incorporating the incomplete part of the
catalogue into the analysis is very far from being optimum, as agreat deal of information
contained in small shocks is wasted.
Another method for estimating the seismic parameter is to reject the macroseismic
observations that are incomplete and use any standard method for the data from the other 4
complete part of the catalogue. It is obvious that this procedure is also highly ineffective,
as the quantitative assessment of recurrence of strong seismic events based on
observations over ashort period of time is burdened with large errors.
Kijko and Sellevoll (1987,89) have developed an approach utilizing both the information
on strong events contained in the macroseismic part of the catalogue as well as that ^
contained in the complete catalogue which contains complete data above a certain
magnitude threshold. This method assumes the Poissonian model of earthquake
occurrence and the doubly truncated Guttenberg-Richter distribution.
The use of probabilistic concepts has allowed uncertainties in the size, location, and rate
of recurrence of earthquakes and in the variation of ground motion characteristics with +
earthquake size and location to be explicitly considered in the evaluation of seismic

hazards during the last 20 to 30 years. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA)
provides aframe-work in which these uncertainties are identified, quantified, and
combined in arational manner to provide amore complete picture ofthe seismic hazard.
The PSHA methodology described in this section is similar in many respects to the well-
established methods developed by Cornell (1968), and Algermissen et al, (1982). The
PSHA can be described as aprocedure of four steps (Reiter, 1990), as illustrated in Fig.
2.1.
15
Step I
a) Identification and characterization of earthquake sources along with the
characterization of probabilitydistribution of potential rupture locations within the
source.
b) Assigning uniform probability distributions to each source zone, implying that
earthquakes are equally likely to occur at any point within the source zone.
c) Combining these distributions with the source geometry to obtain the
corresponding probability distribution of source-to-site distance.
Step II
Characterization of the seismicity or temporal distribution of earthquake recurrence using
a recurrence relationship. The recurrence relationship specifies the average rate at which
an earthquake of some size will be exceeded including accommodation of the maximum
size earthquake, but it does not limit consideration to that earthquake.
Step HI
Determining the ground motion produced at the site by earthquakes of any possible size
occurring at any possible point in each source zone with the use of predictive
relationships. The uncertainty inherent in the predictive relationships is also considered.
Step IV
Combining the uncertainties in earthquake location, earthquake size and ground motion
parameter prediction to obtain the probability that the ground motion parameter will be
exceeded during a particular time period.
16
-i
Source 1 Source 3 *> n
o>
X
to
3
cr
£
s
CO
Magnitude, x
STEP 2
CI
+
Distance, R Parameter value, y*
Fig. 2.1. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment.
17
For the characterization of an earthquake source the spatial characteristics of the source,
the distribution of earthquakes within that source, the distribution of earthquake size for
each source and the distribution of earthquakes with time are to be considered.
The geometries of earthquake sources which depend on their orogany based on the
tectonic processes are generally categorized as point, areal and volumetric sources.
Earthquakes are usually assumed to be uniformly distributed within a particular source
zone. Non uniform distributions may also be used when sufficient information to justify
them exists. A uniform distribution within the source zone does not, however, often
translate into a uniform distribution of source-to-site distance. Since predictive
relationships express ground motion parameters in terms of some measure of source-to-
site distance, the spatial uncertainty must be described with respect to the appropriate
•Y distance parameter. The uncertainty in source-to-site distance can be described by a

probability density function.
Once an earthquake source is identified and its corresponding source zone characterized,
the seismic hazard analyst's attention turns toward evaluation of the sizes of earthquakes
that the source zone can be expected to produce. All source zones have a maximum
earthquake magnitude that cannot be exceeded; it can be large for some and small for
some others. In general, the source zone will produce earthquakes of different sizes up to
the maximum earthquake, with smaller earthquakes occurring more frequently than larger
ones.
The distribution of earthquake sizes in a given period of time is described by a recurrence
law. A basic assumption of PSHA is that the recurrence law obtained from past seismicity
is appropriate for the prediction of future seismicity. The Gutenberg-Richter law for
earthquake recurrence is expressed as
18
(2 1)
log/lm =a-bm v
where Am is the mean annual rate of exceedance of magnitude m, 10" is the mean yearly
number of earthquakes of magnitude greater than or equal to zero, and b(the bvaluej
describes the relative likelihood of large and small earthquakes. This can also be
expressed as
Xm =10°"*m =exp(a - fim) (2-2)

•t
Where a =2.303a and /? =2.3036 . Equation (2.2) shows that the Gutenberg-Richter
equation implies that earthquake magnitude are exponentially distributed. The standard
Gutenberg-Richter law covers an infinite range of magnitudes, from -co to +co. For
engineering purposes, the effects of very small earthquakes are of little interest and it is
common to disregard those that are not capable of causing significant damage. If
earthquakes smaller than lower threshold magnitude m0 are eliminated, the mean annual
rate of exceedance is written as (McGuire and Arabasz, 1990):
Xm =vexp[-p(m-m0)] (2-3)
where v=exp(a - pm0). In most PSHAs, the lower threshold magnitude is set at the
values about 4.0 to 5.0 since magnitudes smaller than that seldom cause significant *
damage. This value of m0 is also estimated from completeness analysis of earthquake
catalogue where statistical methods are generally employed.
19
The Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) and Probabilistic Distribution Function
(PDF) for the Gutenberg-Richter law with upper and lower bounds (mmax and m0) can be
expressed as
FM-HU<m/m.^Smm.)=l-af-^-^\
l-exp[-/?(mmi-mi,)]
(2.4)
l '
r (~\- Pexfj-Mm-m,,)]
f-[m)-l-*xA-f>(m^--.)} (Z5)
Since PSHAs are usually conducted for specific sites rather than large regions, the
earthquake-generating characteristics of individual faults are important. In recent years
the ability of the Gutenberg-Richter law to represent the behavior of a single source has
been called into question (Schwartz and Coppersmith, 1984; Schwartz, 1988).
Paleoseismic studies indicate that individual points on faults and fault segments tend to
move by approximately the same distance in each earthquake. This has been interpreted
to suggest that individual faults repeatedly generate earthquakes of similar (within about
one-half magnitude unit) size, known as characteristic earthquakes, at or near their
i
maximum magnitude. Alternatively, the apparently repetitive natures of fault movement
at individual points may be controlled by localized geologic constraints and,

consequently, not reflect earthquake magnitude very accurately. Resolution of these
alternative interpretations awaits further paleoseismic research.
By dating these characteristic earthquakes, their historical rate of recurrence can be
estimated. Geologic evidence indicates that characteristic earthquakes occur more

frequently than would be implied by extrapolation of the Gutenberg-Richter law from
high exceedance rates (low magnitude) to low exceedance rates (high magnitude). The
20
result is a more complex recurrence law that is governed by seismicity data at low
magnitudes and geologic data at high magnitudes.
4
Anumber ofother recurrence laws have been proposed. Merz and Cornell (1973) used a
quadratic expression to describe the mean annual rate at which earthquakes of magnitude
greater than m0 and less than mmax are exceeded. Shah et al, (1975) used a bilinear
recurrence law in an evaluation of seismic risk for Nicaragua. In another approach, the
Gutenberg-Richter law was modified on the basis of seismic moment and fault slip X
(Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz, 1979).
Available evidence is insufficient to determine the correctness of the Gutenberg-Richter
characteristic earthquake or some other recurrence law. Evaluation of model which is

most appropriate for a given source is hampered by the brevity of historical and/or
instrumental records. Based on five decades of seismicity records for the major seismic ~t
sources of southern California, Wesnousky (1994) concluded that while the available data
were not sufficient to disprove the Gutenberg-Richter recurrence law, the characteristic
earthquake model better represented the observed distribution of earthquake magnitudes.
Additional research in this area is in progress and will undoubtedly be an active topic of
discussion in the forthcoming seismology literature. •*
After characterization of the source in terms of geometry and size, the ground motion at a
distance is predicted using attenuation relationships. Predictive relationships are equations

used to express ground motion parameters as functions of magnitude, distance, and in
some cases, other variables, for example, Y=f(M,R,Pt) where Y is the ground
motion parameter, Mthe magnitude of the earthquake, Rthe distance from the source to
the site under consideration and Pt are other parameters such as earthquake source, wave
propagation path or / and local site conditions.
21
Least squares regression analysis of recorded strong motion data base is done for
developing predictive relationships. As additional strong motion data becomes available

y
with passage of time, the predictive relationships also change wi th time. Hence most of
the predictive relationships are updated in the literature every 3 to 5 years or shortly after
the occurrence of large earthquakes in well-instrumented regions.
Despite attempts to remove questionable data and the use of quality-based weightage
system, some amount of scatter in the data is inevitable. The scatter results from
randomness in the mechanics of rupture and from variability and heterogeneity of the
source travel path and site conditions.
The probability that a particular ground motion parameter exceeds a certain value y *,
for an earthquake of a given magnitude m, occurring at a given distance r, is given by,
P[Y>y*/m,r] =\-Fy{y*) (2.6)
where Fy (y) is the value of the CDF at mand r. The value of Fy (y) depends on the
probability distribution used to represent Y.
To calculate the probabilities of various hazards occurring in a given time period, the
distribution of earthquake occurrence with respect to time must be considered.

t
Earthquakes have long been assumed to occur randomly with time, and in fact,
examination of available seismicity records has revealed little evidence (when aftershocks
are removed) of temporal patterns in earthquake recurrence. The assumption of random
occurrence allows the use of simple probability models, but is inconsistent with the
implications of elastic rebound theory.
The temporal occurrence of earthquakes is most commonly described by a Poisson
model. The Poisson model provides a simple framework for evaluating probabilities of
events that follow a Poisson process, one that yields values of a random variable
22
describing the number of occurrences of aparticular event during a given time interval or
in a specified spatial region. Since PSHAs deal with temporal uncertainty, the spatial
A
applications ofthe Poisson model are considered.
The events of a Poisson process occur randomly, with no "memory" of the time, size, or
location of any preceding event. For a Poisson process, the probability of a random
variable N, representing the number ofoccurrences ofa particular event is
*
/iV
P[N =n] =tL±- (2.7)
n\
where pi is the average number ofoccurrences ofthe event in that time interval. The time
between events in a Poisson process can be shown to be exponentially distributed. To
characterize the temporal distribution of earthquake recurrence for PSHA purposes, the
Poisson probability is usually expressed as
p[N =n]=W±l (2.8)

L J n\
where X is the average rate ofoccurrence ofthe event and t isthe time period ofinterest.
Elastic rebound theory suggests that the occurrence ofearthquakes on a particular fault or
fault segment should not be independent of past seismicity. If earthquakes occur to
release strain energy that builds up over extended periods of time, the occurrence of a
large earthquake should substantially reduce the chances of another independent, large
earthquake (from the same source) occurring shortly thereafter. If earthquakes are
triggered when the stress on a fault reaches some limiting value, the chances of
occurrence should depend on the time, sizes, and locations ofpreceding events.
23
A number of models that account for prior seismicity have been proposed (Anagnos and
Kiremidjian, 1982). Non-homogeneous Poisson models (e.g, Vere Jones and Ozaki,
>-
1982) allow the annual rate of exceedance to vary with time Renewal models (Esteva,
1970; Hagiwara, 1974; Savy et al, 1980; Kiremidjian and Anagnos, 1984; Cornell and
Winterstein, 1986) use arrival-time distributions other than exponential (implied by the
homogeneous Poisson model) to allow the hazard rate to increase with time since the last
event; Gamma and Weibull distributions are most common
Time-predictable models specify a distribution of the time to the next earthquake that
depends on the magnitude of the most recent earthquakes; slip-predictable models
consider the distribution of earthquake magnitude to depend on the time since the most
recent earthquake. Markov models incorporate a type of memory that describes the
chances that a process moves from some past "state" to a particular future state. The time
for which the process stays in a particular state before moving to another state is
exponentially distributed; semi-Markov models are not restricted to the exponential
distribution. Both Markov models (Vere-Jones, 1966; Veneziano and Cornell, 1974;
Nishioka and Shah, 1980) and semi-Markov models (Patwardhan et al, 1980; Cluff et al,
1980; Coppersmith, 1981; Guagenti-Grandori and Molina, 1984) have been used in
*
seismic hazard analysis. The semi-Markov models of Patwardhan et al. (1980) and Cluff
et al, (1980), for example, relate the probability of future earthquakes of various sizes to
the size of the most recent event and the elapsed time since its occurrence. Trigger models
(Vere-Jones and Davies, 1966; Shlien and Tokosz, 1970; Merz and Cornell, 1973b)
account for clusters of events (aftershocks) that occur after the triggering events.
Investigations of the applicability of Poisson and non-Poissonian models (Cornell and
Winterstein, 1986) have shown that the Poisson model is useful for practical seismic risk
analysis except when the seismic hazard is dominated by a single source for which the
24
time interval since the previous significant event is greater than the average inter-event
time and when the source displays strong "characteristic-time" behavior. For this and
other reasons related to simplicity, ease of use, and lack of sufficient data to support more
sophisticated models, the Poisson model is the most widely used in contemporary PSHA.
Each of the more sophisticated models uses a "pattern" of earthquake occurrence to
reconcile their computed probabilities with the mechanics of the elastic rebound process
of earthquake generations. As a result, each requires additional parameters whose values
must be evaluated from historical and instrumental seismicity records that are, in most
cases, too sparse to permit accurate evaluation. As time passes and additional data
becomes available, the use of these models will undoubtedly increase.
Probabilistic computations combine the uncertainties in earthquake size, location,
frequency, and effects resulting in estimation of the annual probability of exceedance of

different values of a selected ground motion parameter. The seismic hazard curves are
then used to compute the probability of exceeding the selected ground motion parameter
in a specified period of time. Seismic hazard curves can be obtained for individual source
zones and combined to express the aggregate hazard at a particular site. For a given
earthquake occurrence, the probability that a ground motion parameter Ywill exceed a
particular value y* can be computed using the total probability theorem as
p[r>/]=p[r>//A-]p[x]= \p[Y>y'/x]fx{x)dx (2.9)

p[Y>y'}= \\p[Y>y'/m,r}fm(m)fRi(r)dmdr (2.10)
where p[y >y*/m,r\ is obtained from the predictive relationship and fM(m) and fR(r) .i.
are the probability density functions for magnitude and distance, respectively.
25
If the site of interest is in a region of N potential earthquake sources, each of which has an
average rate of threshold magnitude exceedance v, the total average exceedance rate for
the region will be given by
4 -i>* HP[y>y,/^]fMi(m)fm(r)dmdr
1=1
(2.11)
One approach used by Kramer (2003) for simplicity rather than efficiency, is to divide the
possible ranges of magnitude and distance into NM and NR segments, respectively. The
average exceedance rate can then be approximated by dividing magnitude and distance
into NM and NR orignents as factors:
%-£ £ tvAY>y'/>»J,rk}fM,k)fz,(rk)OmOr (2.13)
where m} =mQ+ (j - 0.5\mm3X - m0)/Nm , rk =rmm +(k- 0.5\rmiiX - rmm )/NR

Om =(mmix - m0)/Nm and Or =(rmax - rmm )/NR .
This is equivalent to assuming that each source is capable of generating only NM
different earthquakes ofmagnitude, mj: at only NR different source-to-site distances, rk
Equation (2.13) is then equivalent to
4=11 £v,p[r>//my,rtHM =m>[* =rJ

,=i j=\ t=i
(2"14)
The accuracy of the crude numerical integration procedure described above increases
with increasing NM and NR. More refined methods of numerical integration will provide
greater accuracy at the same values of NM and NR.
26
The seismic hazard curve can easily be combined with the Poisson model to estimate
probabilities ofexceedance in finite time intervals. From equation (2.9), the probability of
M
exceedance of y* in a time period Tis
/>[yr>/]=l-e-v (2.15)
2.4 Local Site Effects
Past earthquake events all over the world have evidently shown that the amplification of
ground motion is dependent on the local geological, geotechnical conditions and
topography of the area. Good amount of research has been carried out on the estimation
of local site effects (Willis and Siliva, 1998; Semblat et al, 2000; Slob et al, 2002;
Stewart et al, 2003; Topal et al, 2003; Pitilakis, 2004). It is reported that large
concentration of damage in specific areas during an earthquake is caused due to factors
related to surface geological conditions and local soil structure. These factors are
responsible for altering the seismic motion. The 1923 Kanto earthquake has clearly
shown that major seismic damage was controlled by local geology. Each soil type
responds differently when subjected to ground motions, imposed due to earthquake
forces.
Generally, the soil layers over firm bedrock attenuate or amplify the base rock earthquake
motion depending upon geotechnical characteristics and depth ofthe layers as also on the
arrangement of layering. Usually, the younger soft soils cause higher amplification of
bedrock motion relative to the one caused by older, more competent soils. Local
amplification of ground motion is often controlled by the soft surface layer, which leads
_i.
to trapping of seismic energy, due to impedance contrast between the soft surface soils
and the underlying bedrock. Various studies have reported that the damaging effects
associated with soft deposits may lead to local intensity increments as large as 2 to 3
27
degrees in MM scale (Finn, 1991). The study ofsite response has, therefore, become one
of the important tasks in the seismic microzonation.
2.4.1 Methods of Estimating Local Site Effects
The different techniques available for estimating local site response are broadly
categorized as empirical, theoretical and experimental. Our aim is to find and choose the
convenient and cost effective tools for estimation of effects of the local sites.
2.4.1.1 Empirical Methods
Empirical relations between surface geology and various ground motion parameters were
developed in the past. These relationships are generally developed from one set of data at
a particular site where both the earthquake observations and the information on surface
geology are available. These are then applied to other sites where only the geological
information is available.
Geology and Intensity
Relationships between surface geology and seismic intensity increments were developed
by various researchers and these are given in Table 2.1. The correlations given by
Medvedev (1962), Evernden and Thomson (1985), Kagami et al, (1988) are based on the
seismic observations in Asia, California, Japan and Chile respectively. Medvedev's
empirical relation has been extensively used in eastern European countries for seismic
28
microzonation studies while in the western Europe the relationship developed by
Evernden and Thomson (1985) has been used. Zonation can be done using these ^
correlations as the geological maps are widely available.
Geology and Amplification
Borchedt and Gibbs (1976) proposed the concept of relative amplification used to
evaluate the effect of local geology quantitatively. Relative amplification is defined as the
amplification with respect to reference site. The ground motions generated by nuclear
explosions at sites with varying geological conditions were measured to obtain the
spectral amplification of the motions with respect to granitic rock sites and equations
between intensity increment and the Average Horizontal Spectral Acceleration (AHSA)
were developed. The ASHA is the average of the spectral amplification in the frequency
range of 0.5 to 2.5Hz as shown in following equation.
// = 0.27 +2.7 log(AHSA) (2.16)
where II is the intensity increment.
Table 2.1 Correlations between Surface Geology and Intensity Increments

(TC4-ISSMGE, 1999)
Geological Unit Intensity Increments
Medvedev (1962) (MSK Scale)
Granites 0
Limestone, Sandstones, Shales 0.2-1.3
Gypsum, Marl 0.6-1.4
Coarse material ground 1.0-1.6
Sandy ground 1.2-1.8
Calyey ground 1.2-2.1
Fill 2.3-3.0
Moist ground 1.7-2.8
Moist fill and soil ground 3.3-3.9
Evernden and Thomson (1985) (MM Scale)

Granite and metamorphic rocks 0
29
Paleozoic rocks 0.4
Early mesozonic rocks 0.8
Cretaceous to Eocene rocks 1.2
y Undivided tertiary rocks 1.3
Olegocene to middle Pliocene rocks 1.5
Tertiary volcanic rocks 2.0
Quarternary volcanic rocks 0.3
Alluvium (water table < 30 ft) 0.3
(water table > 100ft) 1.5
(others) 2.0
Kagami et al. (1988) (JMA Scale)
Talus 0
j-
Andesite 0
Gravel 0.2
River Deposits 0.4
Volcanic ash 0.5
Sandy silt 0.7
Clayey silt 0.8
Silt 1.0
Peat 0.9
Shima (1978) has given the relative amplification factors for different soil types based on
analytical computations of the seismic response of ground. The relative amplification is
defined as the ratio of the maximum ground response in the frequency range 0.1-10 Hz
with respect to that on loam. Midorikawa (1987) also suggested values of the relative
amplification factors for different geological structures. Here the amplification factor is
defined as the mean of ground amplification in the frequency range of 0.4 to 5.0 Hz.
Summary of the relative amplification factors with respect geology is presented in Table
2.2.
Table 2.2 Correlations between Surface Geology and Relative Amplification
Geological Unit Relative Amplification

Borchedt and gibbs (1976)
Bay mud 11.2
Alluvium 3.9
Santa Clara formation 2.7
Great valley sequence 2.3
Franciscam formation 1.6
Granite 1.0
30
Shima (1978)
Peat 1.6
Humus soil 1.4
Clay 1.3
Loam 1.0
Sand 09
Midorikawa (1987)
Holocene 3.0
Pleistocene 2.1
Quarternary volcanic rocks 1.6
Miocene 1.5
Pre-Tertiary L0
Tryantafilidis et al, (1999) analyzed the instrumental data and microseismic
observations in the city of Thessaloniki and proposed correlations for intensity increment
(II) and the average horizontal spectral amplification (ASHA) for different frequency
ranges as:
II =0.83 +235\og(AHSA025_yo)
// =0.21 +3.40 \og(AHSAl0_l00) (2.17)
7/ =0.13 +3.121og(v4//&430_60)
These correlations show that locations with average spectral horizontal amplification of
around 10 experience local intensity increments as large as 2 to 3 degrees whereas for
AHSA of around 4 it reduces to 1.5 to 2 degrees.
Geotechnical parameters and amplification
The average shear wave velocity and SPT 'N' are the two most important geotechnical
parameters for estimation of amplification factors. Precise measurement of shear wave
velocity is expensive whereas SPT 'N' is easily available. Shima (1978) found that the
analytically calculated amplification factor is linearly related to the ratio of shear wave
velocity of the surface layer to that of bedrock. In locations where bedrock shear wave
velocity is found to be relatively constant over a wide area, the relative amplification can
be obtained from the shear wave velocity of the surface layer. Relations between the
31
average shear wave velocity of surface layers and the relative amplification proposed by
various researchers are presented in Table 2.3.
Table 2.3 Correlation between Average Shear Wave Velocity and Relative Amplification
Author Proposed Equation
Joyner and Fumal (1984) jh = 23F~045
Midorikawa (1987) n 0, ,
^ =68F;3006 (Vm <1100m/s)
=1-0 (Vsi0>\100 m/s)
where RA is relative amplification, ASHA corresponds to frequency range of 0.25 to 5
Hz, Vm is the average shear wave velocity (m/s) over a depth of 30m and Vs+ is the
average shear wave velocity over a depth of one quarter wave length for a one second
period wave.
Surface Topology
The variation of damage as well as the strong motion records obtained during past
earthquakes indicate the effects of topography on ground motion characteristics.. (Geli et
al, 1988, Faccioli, 1991; Chavez-Garcia et al, 1996, Reinoso et al, 1997,
Athanasopoulus etal, 1999). The approach adopted by AFPS (1995) was to introduce an
additional empirical parameter as the topographical amplification factor (Ar) in the
definition of the design spectrum to account for the topographical effects;
,4., =1 +0.8(7-/ -0.4) 1.0<^r<1.4 (2.18)

where /and i are the gradients of the lower and upper slopes respectively.
On the other hand the geological structures such as basins and sediment filled valleys
have very important effects on the variations of the earthquake ground motion. Local site
effects on basins and valleys have been investigated by many researchers (Bard and
Bouchon, 1980); Wen et al, 1995; Rassem et al, 1997; Gao et al, 1996; Wald and
32
Graves, 1998; Kawase, 1998; Amirbekian and Bolt, 1998; Paolucci et al, 2000, Sokolov
et al, 2000; Chavez-Garcia and Faccioli, 2000).
2.4.1.2 Analytical Methods
The most widely used analytical method in one dimensional analysis is the Multiple
Reflection Models for the propagation of S waves in a one-dimensional column (lida et
al, 1978). The soil model in the form of a mesh is constructed using the data from bore
holes or the measurements of soil velocity. The information about generic ground
conditions may be used if the above mentioned data is not available (Shima and Imai,
1982). Serious consideration is to be given to non linearity in site characterization and
analysis because all types of soils exhibit highly nonlinear character. Moreover,
earthquake ground motion records also show a nonlinear behavior (Tokimatsu and
Midorikawa, 1982; Chang et al, 1991). A computer program SHAKE developed by
Schnabel et al, (1972) and later on modified by Idriss and Sun (1992) is widely used to
account for the nonlinear behavior of soil layers. The nonlinear analysis is replaced by an
equivalent linear analysis approach and the response in a horizontally layered soil deposit
subjected to transient, vertically traveling shear waves is computed. In order to include
the effects of non homogenous nature of natural soil deposits, analytical methods
incorporating two or three-dimensional analysis have been developed (Olsen, 2000).
Gaetano et al. (2005) estimated the low frequency amplification in the city of L'Aquila,
Central Italy, through a multidisciplinary approach including strong and weak motion
data, ambient noise and numerical modeling.
33
2.4.1.3 Experimental methods
>
The experimental methods for estimating local site effects are based on different kinds of
data such as microtremor measurements, weak seismicity survey and strong motion data.
The use of different methods is described here.
Microtremor Measurements
4
The local site effects are normally represented by the amplification factor and the
resonance/fundamental frequency. The vibrations in the ground are caused by natural or
ambient noise like wind, sea waves, traffic, industrial vibrations etc. The ambient noise
occurs between frequency ranges 0.1 Hz to 10 Hz. Microtremors are vibrations of
relatively small periods of less than 1 second while vibrations with larger periods are
called microseisms.
A»*r*t« p*Hod (ttc)
Fig. 2.2 Microtremor method Based on Maximum and Average Period (Kanai etal,
1966)
As the spectral features of microtremors and the geological conditions of a site are closely
related, the measurements of these small period vibrations are very useful in study of the
earthquake geotechnical engineering. Kanai and Tanaka (1961) have given a theoretical
34
interpretation and apractical engineering application of microtremors as aconvenient and
reliable tool for evaluating frequency properties of surface ground.
i
IV
III
1.0
o.*
D,«
0.4
III
J— L
(Ml 0.1 (1.1 0.$ A.4 *•* OjG 0.7
Fig. 2.3 Microtremor method based on the Maximum Amplitude and

Predominant Period (Kanai et al 1966)
Kanai and Tanaka (1961) proposed two methods based on microtremor records. One is
based on the largest period and the mean period (Fig. 2.2) and the other on the largest
amplitude inmicrons and the predominant period (Fig. 2.3).
Omote and Nakajuma (1966) classified predominant frequency (pf) diagrams from more
than 500 sites into three categories. Also the distribution ofSPT 'N' value with depth for
the three categories has different patterns.
Type A: T= 0.10-0.25 sec. (no peak over 0.3 sec.)

Type B: T= 0.25 -0.4 sec (a few peaks between 0.5 and 0.6 sec.)
Type C: T > 0.4 sec. (flat as a whole)
Nakamura (1989) carried out extensive microtremor studies in Kanonomiya and Tabata,
Japan and proposed a method, which is very widely used in response studies. According
to this, the H/V ratio is a reliable estimation ofnot only the resonant frequencies but also
the corresponding amplification. On soft soils the H/V plots exhibit a clear peak that is
35
well correlated with the fundamental resonant frequency. This is well supported by
findings of several researchers (Field and Jacob, 1993; Lachet and Bard, 1994; Lermo and
Chavez-Garcia, 1994). Mukhopadhyay and Bormann (2004) used micro tremors for
carrying out low cost seismic microzonation for Delhi region. Ohmachi et al, (1991)
used Nakamura's technique to analyse microtremor measurements conducted at sites of
heavy damage in San Francisco after the Loma Prieta earthquake in 1989. The estimated
frequencies and amplification factors for the Marina district are correlated with three
degrees of damage. (Table 2.4)
Table 2.4 Range of Frequency and Amplification Factors along with Damage
Potential in Marina District
Frequency (Hz) Amplification Factor Damage Severity
0.8-1.0 5-9 Severely damaged
1.0-1.2 4-5 Damaged
>3.0 2-3 Slightly damaged or no damage
Mukhupadhyay et al, (2002) conducted microtremor studies in Delhi and compared the
resonance frequencies obtained by microtremor measurements with that estimated from
strong motion records. The strong motion records were from Singh et al, (2001) for the
same locations (14 sites). Tuladhar et al, (2004) did seismic microzonation of greater
Bangkok area using microtremor observations.
Weak Motion Data
Weak motion data are the records from small to moderate, natural or artificial seismic
events (low magnitude earthquakes, aftershocks of big events, mine or quarry blasts,
36
nuclear tests etc.). Such data can be recorded by highly sensitive digital instruments
identical to those used by seismologists for study of microseismicity. Field and Jacob
(1995) expressed the observation that the greatest challenge in the estimation of site
response from such instrumental recordings is removing the source and path effects. Two
techniques are developed depending on whether or not they require a reference site with
respect to which the particular effects at other sites are estimated.
Reference site technique
This technique mainly consists of comparing records through spectral ratios at nearby
sites where source and path effects are identical. These spectral ratios give a reliable
estimate of the site response if the reference site satisfies the following two conditions.
First, it should be located near to the examined station to ensure that differences between
each site are only due to site conditions, and not due to source-site travel path. Secondly,
it should be located on unweathered rock.
This technique was first introduced by Borcherdt (1970) and is widely used all over the
world. The method is based on the following principle.
For a network of T sites having recorded 'f events, the amplitude spectrum of the of the -*
ground motion Ry{f) recorded at site '/" during the event'/ can be written as :
RiW-Eji/MM) (2-19)
where E (/) is source function, Ptj(f) is the path contribution between the source and
local site and St(f) isthe local site contribution.
Taking log on both sides,
Ink M) =m(Ej (/))+ Info (/))+ Info (/)) (2-20)
37
Two different techniques have been proposed to obtain the spectral ratio. One is through
the smoothened Fourier spectra of motion at both sites and the other is through the
normalized cross spectrum. Most ofthe researchers prefer the former technique.
Non Reference Site Techniques
In practice, adequate reference sites are not always available and hence methods not
requiring reference sites have been developed. One of these methods consists of taking
the spectral ratio between the horizontal and the vertical components of the shear wave
part. This technique is a combination of Langston's (1979) receiver function method for
determining the velocity structure of the crust from the horizontal to vertical spectral
ratio (HVSR) of teleseismic P waves, and the Nakamura's (1996) method. It was first
< applied to the S wave portion of the earthquake recordings obtained at three different sites
in Mexico city by Lermo and Chavez-Garcia (1994). The same technique was applied on
various sets ofweak and strong motion data (Lachet et al, 1996; Theodulidis et al, 1996;
Riepel et al, 1998; Zare et al, 1999). It was concluded that the HVSR shape exhibits a
very good experimental stability, it is well correlated with surface geology and is less
sensitive. The determination of the absolute level of amplification from only HVSR is not
straight forward. Field and Jacob (1995) applied this technique and the method has the
capability of reproducing well the shape of the site response, but underestimates the
amplification level. They also found very different results when applying this technique
to the P wave part of the recordings.
38
2.4.1.4 Strong Motion Data
In mega cities like Los Angeles, Tokyo, Taipei, Mexico city etc; the development of
strong motion arrays makes it possible to apply the weak motion method mentioned
above on strong motion data. In such cases the applicability and reliability of results are
beyond question. Non linear effects are also included in the recordings. Recent studies
show a fairly good agreement between the old and new techniques. Except for those
based on microtremor recordings, all reveal the frequency dependent character of site
amplification with comparable accuracy at least for soft soil deposits. Khoubbi and
Adams (2004) estimated soil amplification in Ottawa, Canada using strong motion
records.
2.5 Site characterization
Site characterization comprising geological, geotechnical and geophysical investigations
is one ofthe important steps in any microzonation study. The main aim ofthese studies is
to identify the local geological formations and the geotechnical properties ofthe soils in
the study area. The characteristics and thickness of site's soil conditions are to be
identified based on borings, in-situ geophysical and geotechnical tests. These data bases
are needed for assessing the local site effects for site amplification.
2.5.1 Geotechnical Investigation
Geotechnical site conditions play an important role in damage distribution as well as in

the records ofthe strong ground motion (Ishihara, 1997; Tertulliani, 2000). Identification
ofthe soil strata and properties ofsoil layers based on various in-situ tests and laboratory
39
tests on soil and rock samples are required for determining geotechnical site conditions
(Kokusho, 1987; Atkinson and Sallfors, 1991; Pitilakis et al, 1992).
During earthquakes soils are subjected to random motions that cause degradation of
stiffness and shear strength with respect to number of cycles. Many studies have been
carried out to investigate the behavior of soils subjected to cyclic loading (Seed and
Idriss, 1970; Castro and Christian, 1976; Idriss et al, 1978; Sangrey and France, 1980;
Yasuhara et al, 1982; Ishihara et al, 1983; Fujiwara et al, 1985; Hatanaka et al, 1988;
Matasovic and Vucetic, 1992; Talesnick and frydman, 1992; Viggiani and Atkinson,
1995; Lanzo et al, 1997; Vucetic et al, 1998; Vrettos and Savidis, 1999;).
2.5.2 Geophysical Investigation
Seismic tests are classified into borehole (invasive) and surface (non invasive) methods.
-r
They are based on the propagation ofbody waves and surface waves which are associated
to very small strain (< 0.001% ). The shear wave velocity (Vs) is a soil property used to
determine the shear modulus (G) of the soil as below:
G=PK2 (2.21)
Seismic tests are also used to determine the material damping ratio by measuring the
>
spatial attenuation of body or surface waves.
D0=aV/2nf(D0<10%) {222)
where D0 is the small strain damping ratio , a and Fare the attenuation coefficient and
velocity respectively ofP, Sor Rwaves and/is the frequency.
+
The most widely used borehole methods are PS logging, down-hole logging and cross-
hole logging (Mancuso, 1994; Raptakis et al, 1994).
Surface methods are non invasive field tests executed from the ground surface without
drilling any boreholes. These methods are increasingly used in civil engineering
40
applications to evaluate soil shear modulus with depth (O'Neill et al, 2003). This
approach has advantages over invasive subsurface measurements (Xia et al, 2002),
because it can be easily implemented along linear sections to obtain a two dimensional
shear wave velocity profile of shallow layers (Lin etal, 2004; Hayashi and Suzuki, 2004)
and it can be used as a tool for imaging subsurface heterogeneity (Shtivelman, 2002).
The spectral-analysis-of-surface waves (SASW) method is a seismic technique for

determining in-situ shear wave velocities and thickness of layered systems. The test is
performed from the ground surface and thus requires no boreholes. Measurements are
made at strain levels below 0.001 percent, where elastic properties of soil are essentially
independent ofstrain amplitude. A schematic ofthe testing setup ofthe SASW method is
presented in Fig 2.4. The method consists of the generation of surface waves by an
impulsive or random-noise load at the surface of the soil. Vibration signals are then
detected by a pair of receivers spaced a distance D apart. The detected signals are
transformed to the frequency domain using Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) analysis to
obtain the phase difference of the transfer function (or cross-spectrum) between receivers
as a function of frequency. The phase difference is then used to construct the
experimental dispersion curve of the site. The inversion of dispersion curve provides
information on the variation of shear wave velocity with depth.
Information over a broad frequency range is obtained at one time by using an impulse
source and processing the associated transient signals, which can be detected on the
ground surface. Although it may be considered a relatively young method, having been
proposed and developed during the Eighties, it is nowadays a widely used method for in
situ testing.
41
s i i Spectral
Analyzer
i i
Portable Microcomputer
Impulsive Source
•
~^?
tzzzzzzzr
<— D/2
-*\<- D(variable) H
Fig. 2.4 Layout of the testing setup of the SASW method.
SASW tests can be performed quickly, they require no borehole, they can detect low-
velocity layers, and they can be used to considerable depth (>100 m). Comparison of
shear wave velocity profiles obtained from SASW testing and cross-hole testing have
shown good agreement. SASW testing is particularly useful at sites where drilling and
sampling are difficult; it has been used successfully in such materials as gravels and
debris flow deposits and landfills. The procedure does, however require specialized
equipment and experienced operators. Its applicability is also limited to sites at which the
assumptions of the Haskell-Thomson solution (e.g., horizontal layering) are at least
approximately satisfied.
• The technique makes measurements in situ, and so is unaffected by the problems
of testing localized, disturbed or non-representative samples; for the same reason
it takes into account the effects of fissures and fracturing on mass compressibility.
• The test is non-destructive, with at most the upper few centimeters of top soil or
rubble needing to be cleared from a very small area of the test site.
42
• On the basis ofcost-per-data point, surface-wave testing is by far the cheapest of
all the direct methods of stiffness measurement.
• It allows ground variability to be assessed swiftly in terms of stiffness, and

permits ready appraisal of ground improvement schemes such as dynamic
compaction.
• Additionally, unlike other surface-based seismic methods, surface wave testing

can reveal a low stiffness layer sandwiched between relatively high-stiffness
layers.
The test is performed using avertical impulse applied to the ground surface and recording
the transient signal, composed mainly of Rayleigh waves over a certain frequency range,
by means of two receivers placed along astraight line starting from the impulse point (Fig
2.5 ). The distance between the source and the first receiver is usually taken equal to that
between the two receivers. This choice is not a strict requirement, but represents the result
of the balance between the influence of different factors, tested through several
parametric analysis based on numerical simulations.

Several repetition of the test are made for each geometrical configuration and the
recorded signals are averaged to improve the signal to noise ratio. Only information
regarding a limited range of frequency can be obtained by a given source-receivers
configuration, due to many factors such as attenuation, spatial aliasing, near field effects.
By changing receiver positions and using different sources the dispersion curve can be
constructed over a wide frequency range, sufficient for the purposes of characterization.
Short spacing (0.5-5 m) and weak impulse sources (such as asmall hammer) are used for
high frequencies (short wavelengths), while long distance (up to 60 m) and heavy impulse
sources (e.g. amassive concrete cube drop or the movements of abulldozer) are suitable
for the low frequency range (long penetration: information on deeper layers).
43
Signal Analyaser
—' '—' /*>
Impulsive, Sinusoidal «
Random Noise Source
Near Receiver Far Receiver
u.
•» 1 X-
Fig. 2.5 SASW method field configuration
This choice is also related to the attenuation of signals for both geometric and material
attenuation: signals that have to be detected at great distance must be generated by a
heavy source, which is able to generate an energetically rich perturbation. The choice of
inter-geophones distances are dictated by consideration of the frequency range ofpoints

in the dispersion curve that are obtained from each configuration; usually the choice is
such that there is a certain overlap between information from one measurement and
information from the successive one.

*
The Rayleigh waves recorded are transformed from the time domain into the frequency
domain using Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) techniques. For each component frequency,
the corresponding phase difference AO(/) between each receiver pair is computed. The
travel time A(t) between receivers is calculated using At(f) =AO(f)/2nf . Since the
distance between each pair ofreceivers Ad =d2-dl is known, the Rayleigh wave phase
velocity corresponding to each component frequency (/) is calculated as
44
VR(f) =Ad/At(f). The corresponding wavelengths (XR) are calculated as
Kif) = vR{f)lf
When the velocities have been calculated for all frequencies, a dispersion curve VR-X or
VR - depth, can be plotted .The complete dispersion curve is built up by the results from
all geophone distances. Conversion of X to depth z can empirically be made by assuming
z = X/2 to z = X/3.
Finally the soil mechanical parameters have to be estimated from the dispersion curve.
Usually this task is accomplished assuming a model of horizontally stratified elastic
medium. The unknown are four for each layer, i.e. thickness, density, shear modulus and
Poisson ratio. Many parametric studies have been devoted to assess the influence of each
one of these parameters (Nazarian 1984). The general conclusion is that the influence of
density and Poisson number is negligible, so that they can be estimated on the basis of
experience without sensible effects on the final result. A first procedure to invert the
dispersion curve is based on a simple trial-error procedure. An initial first tentative profile
of the site is set, if it is the case by using a priori information from previous geotechnical
tests. The forward problem of wave propagation is then resolved and the computed
dispersion curve is compared to the experimental one. In the successive step some
parameters of the initial model are changed in view of improving the fitting between
numerical and experimental data. The judgment about the effectiveness of the fitting is
usually done by a least-square criterion and by visual inspection. The process follows an
iterative scheme and eventually it converges to an acceptable solution. Such a method has
been used since the first applications of the SASW method. Clearly it is a tedious time
consuming job and moreover the convergence requires the expertise of the operator in
adjusting the trial parameters.
45
The basic principle of MASW (Multichannel Analysis of Surface Wave) is same as
SASW but the arrangement and processing of data is different than SASW. The MASW
field layout is similar to that of the seismic refraction technique and is shown in Fig. 2.6.
Twenty four, or more, geophones are laid out in a linear array with 1 to 2 m spacing and
connected to a multi-channel seismograph as shown below. This technique is ideally
suited to 2D shear wave velocity imaging, with data collected in a roll-along manner
similar to that of the seismic reflection technique. The source is offset at a predetermined
distance from the near geophone and the Rayleigh wave dispersion curve is obtained by a
wave field transformation of the seismic record via the frequency wave number (f-k) or
slowness-frequency (p-f) transforms. These transforms are very effective in isolating
surface wave energy from that of body waves. The dispersion curve is picked as the peak
of the surface wave energy in slowness (or velocity) - frequency space. One advantage of
the MASW technique is that the wave field transformation may not only identify the
fundamental mode but also higher modes of surface waves. So this method gives better
results and covers a large site area in one time.
* ;Data acquisition
Shot mark
Short wavelength m iface wav
Receiver!
Long wavelength surface wave
Fig. 2.6 Schematic diagram of Data Acquisition

46
2.6 Seismic Microzonation of Mega Cities
Seismic microzonation is a procedure for estimating the total seismic hazard from ground
shaking and related phenomena by taking into account the effects of local site conditions.
It involves mapping of earthquake-related geologic hazards that depend on site-specific
conditions such as soil and groundwater, topography, elevation, and proximity to bodies
of water. The sections described above cover the various steps for carrying out seismic
microzonation including Seismic Hazard estimation of a region, Seismic Zonation at the
bed rock level for strong motion parameter, Amplification of ground motion due to local
site conditions and finally Microzonation for various seismic parameters. The following
sections describe some of the seismic microzonation studies being carried out for mega
cities
Mohanty et al, (2005) proposed a first order seismic microzonation map of Delhi using
five thematic layers viz., Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) contour, different soil types at
6 m depth, geology, groundwater fluctuation and bedrock depth, integrated on GIS

platform. The integration is performed following a pair-wise comparison of Analytical
Hierarchy Process (AHP), wherein each thematic map is assigned weight in the 5-1 scale:
depending on its contribution towards the seismic hazard. Following the AHP, the
weightage assigned to each theme are: PGA (0.333), soil (0.266), geology (0.20),
groundwater (0.133) and bedrock depth (0.066). The thematic vector layers are overlaid
and integrated using GIS. On the microzonation theme, the Delhi region has been
classified into four broad zones of vulnerability to the seismic hazard. They are very high
(> 52%), high (38-52%), moderate (23-38%) and less ( <23%) zones of seismic hazard.
The "very high" seismic hazard zone is observed where the maximum PGA varies from
140 to 210 gal for a finite source model of Mw 8.5 in the central seismic gap. A site
47
amplification study from local and regional earthquakes for Delhi region using Delhi
Telemetry Network data shows a steeper site response gradient in the eastern side of the
Yamuna fluvial deposits at 1.5 Hz. The 'high' seismic hazard zone occupies most of the
study area where the PGA value ranges from 90 to 140 gal. The 'moderate' seismic
hazard zone occurs on either side of the Delhi ridge with PGA value varying from 60 to
90 gal. The 'less' seismic hazard zone occurs in small patches distributed along the study
4 area with the PGA value less than 60 gal. Site response studies, PGA distribution and
destruction pattern of the Chamoli earthquake greatly corroborate the seismic hazard
zones estimated through microzonation on GIS platform and also establishes the
methodology incorporated in this study.
Noack et al, (1997) proposed qualitative technique for microzonation of Basel city in
Switzerland, considering geological and geotechnical data. A rating system was
developed for different soil types based on their characteristics and their capabilities to
amplify seismic waves.
Topal et al, (2003) considered parameters like geological, geotechnical, seismotectonic
and hydrological conditions and on the basis of these, they proposed four different zones
>
for the Yeneshir an urban centre in Turkey. They suggested the susceptibility of the
southern part of the city to liquefaction due to presence of clayey soil.
Slob et al, (2002) used a 3-D layer model in GIS combined with a 1-D calculation of
seismic response using SHAKE to get the spatial variation in seismic response which was
checked with the damage assessment of Armenia (Colombia). Their conclusion that the
amplification was high in the 5 Hz range, that corresponds to the natural frequencies of 2-
storeyed houses, proved to be right after the earthquake in which low rise buildings
experienced more damage than the high rise buildings (Slob et al, 2002)
48
Ansal et al, (2004) conducted microzonation studies for the city of Silivira (Turkey)
using probabilistic approach. Ageology map at 1:5000 was prepared for the study of
geological and geotechnical conditions of the area. The area was divided into 500 x500
meters grid and ahypothetical soil profile prepared based on the available borehole data
and laboratory tests. Average shear wave velocity was determined from seismic
refraction tests and spectral amplification was computed using the equation proposed by
Midorikawa (1987)
4=68xF/6 (2-23)
Ak and Vs being the spectral amplification and shear wave velocity respectively. Spectral
am
plification map was prepared on the basis of output. Six different ground motion data
were
used to obtain spectral acceleration and the average value considered for site
response analysis.
Mishra (2004) prepared the microzonation map for Jabalpur city in India in four stages.
In the first stage the first level microzonation map was prepared on the basis of
preliminary geological concept of seismic rigidity and impedance contrast in the litho
column. Second level microzonation map was prepared considering geotechnical ^
information for liquefaction potential and site response pattern. In the third level, the
results ofnumerical modeling and geoscientific map were characterized as hazard maps
with ground motion defined in terms of amplification and response spectra. In the final
stage, Risk microzonation map was prepared based on various parameters of
vulnerability.
The seismic zoning of Mexico City was done on the basis of the evaluation of the damage
suffered by structures in different parts of the city in the 1985 Earthquake (Iglesias,
49
gJTRAL LIBgg
1989). A new interpretation of the^fslil^HyOTtiie city was formulated. The resistance
coefficients of the evaluated structures that suffered severe damage were used to elaborate
a map of intensities for the earthquake. The map thus obtained was used as the criterion
for the revised seismic zoning of the city. The proposed zoning, however, is based on the
effects of a single earthquake only.
The method is based on the consideration that for the failure condition, the ratio of the
resistant shear force to the acting shear force in a given floor is equal to unity. The most
important conclusion was the evidence of the strong interaction of the neighbouring zones
of firm soil or rock, which can amplify the ground motion in the soft soil between them as
much as 100%.
Grant-Taylor et el., (1974) compiled the damage caused by the 1968 earthquake in
Wellington, New Zealand. Hodder and Graham (1993) correlated the extent of damages
caused to buildings erected on a variety of regoliths and foundation materials with the
thickness of the regolith, the depth to the water table, and semi quantitative parameters
derived from soil profile description, particularly related to soil type and soil structure.
From linear regression correlations, the expected damage for a comparable earthquake
elsewhere can be determined. The model was tested for soil data for the Edgecumbe area,
hit by a damaging earthquake in 1987. The predictions were sufficiently in accord with
observations to suggest that soil properties that reflect the geotechnical properties of the
upper parts of the regolith, particularly those that measure the shear strength, shear wave
velocity and viscous damping of that material, may be useful for earthquake microzoning
purposes in areas where there is a considerable thickness of unconsolidated materials
above bedrock.
Brian et al, (1995) have developed a methodology for using microtremor spectral ratios
as an aid to microzonation of intensely populated areas of Australia. This method requires

50
the accumulation of preferably simultaneously and relatively undisturbed microtremor
data at a grid of sites over the region of interest, using a common site as a reference
"?
throughout the recording phase. This methodology was used in the Perth Basin of
metropoliton Perth, using earthquake spectral ratios to calibrate the microtremor
equivalent. It was found that these low-strain vibrations could provide reasonable first
approximations to strong ground motion during earthquakes.
Alva Hurtado and Vasquez Lopez (1999) also used the concept of microtremor *
methodology for seismic microzonation of Nasca, Peru after the Nasca earthquake,
November 12,1996. Pariona and Rosas, (1993) and Huiman (1996) compiled the
available information and a soil exploration and microtremor measurement program was
undertaken (Vasquez and Alva-Hurtado, 1997). The city was divided into five zones and
further development of Nasca was recommended towards Zones I and II where the p
ground is composed of compact sandy gravel. Zone III has second priority because the
gravel layer is deeper. Zone IV and Vare critical because the gravel is below 0.5 meters.
The working methodology adopted by Rubiono and Rodriguez (1999) in the seismic
microzonation project in Santa Fe de Bogota (Colombia) was divided into four large
activities: evaluation of the regional seismic hazard; local seismic response; seismic ^
vulnerability analysis; and geographic information system for related topics. The one-
dimensional seismic response was established on the basis of shear wave spreading
models and two-dimensional models were performed with finite elements. Five
homogeneously behaving zones were identified for several groups of probable maximum
earthquakes, which allowed defining atypical response spectrum for each zone.
Cardona and Yamin (1997) proposed amap of seismic zonation for the city of Bogota,
Colombia for hypothetical earthquakes of different magnitudes upto magnitude 7.5.
51
Unidimensional and bidimensional seismic response analyses were performed using the
computer programs, SHAKE 91, ANSYS, and QUAD4M (Idriss et al, 1992). The model
was calibrated using acceleration time-histories recorded on both rock and soil sites in the
city. One hundred and seventeen measurements of microtremors were registered to

produce a preliminary map of zones of similar dynamic behaviour with values of various
vibration periods. The soil types of Bogota were characterized using dynamic lab studies
*
after making numerous deep drillings. The methodology developed for estimating the
damage to buildings and other lifelines was based upon the response spectrum for each
hypothetical scenario in each of the zones identified in the seismic microzonation map.
Slob et al, (2002) have demonstrated the possibility to make better use of any limited
geotechnical, geomorphological and geological information by creating a simplified semi-
^ 3D model in a GIS. Through linking of this 3D information in the GIS with a seismic
response modelling program-such as the widely used software SHAKE - a more accurate
spatial variation of the seismic response can be modelled, which provides an improved
basis for seismic hazard zonation.
This methodology was applied to a case study from the city of Armenia in Colombia,
^ which was affected by an earthquake of 6.1 magnitude in January 1999. The spatial
variation of the spectral acceleration for different frequencies was determined. It could be
concluded that the amplification of the seismic signal that was recorded for this particular
earthquake was exceptionally high in the 5 Hz range, which generally corresponds to the
natural frequencies of about 2-storeyed buildings. This was in total agreement with the
general observation made after the earthquake, which revealed that the low-rise buildings
experienced relatively more damage than the high-rise buildings.
52
Chapter 3
Seismic Hazard Estimation
3.1 Introduction
The seismic hazard assessment of an area necessarily involves some of the basic steps viz.,
study of the geological and tectonic setup of the area, compilation of seismicity data,
division of area into independent seismogenic sources based on the geological, geophysical,
tectonic and seismicity of the sources and then assessing the seismic hazard using
appropriate methodology (deterministic and/or probabilistic). One of the important steps is
the seismotectonics modeling of the region. The seismotectonics modeling is carried out by
studying the geological setup of the area, tectonic setup of the area and association of the
occurrence of the earthquakes with the seismogenic sources present in the area. The present
chapter contains the studies carried out in relation to the geological setup of the area, the
compilation of seismicity and its treatment for completeness and homogenization,
estimation of seismic hazard for the seismogenic sources in and around the Srinagar city.
3.2 Global Geological Setting
The collision between the Indian subcontinent and the Eurasian plate dates back to the
Early Tertiary, or about 60 million years ago (Fig. 3.1). After the initial collision, the
convergence rates have slowed down, and is presently driving the Indian subcontinent
northward into Eurasia (Press and Siever, 1982). The present convergence rate is estimated
to -20 mm/ year between India and southern Tibet (Jackson and Bilham, 1994, Larson et
al, 1999), which is higher than the 10-15 mm/year assumed earlier (Lyon-Caen and
Molnar, 1985; Baker et al, 1988).
53
EURASIAN PIATE
Equator -/*.' i
INDIAN
OCCAN
%kC
71 million
», yeats ago
•' "INDIA'
Land mass
Fig. 3.1 The Indian plate colliding with the Eurasian plate.
>-
During the last decades the Himalayan region has been studied fairly extensively in terms
of present deformation and earthquake risk. The region is, however, so large, inaccessible
and tectonically complex that too much of work remains to be done in order to establish a
reasonably good understanding. One problem here is that the thrusting mechanisms are
A
deep and complex, and also that the return times for the largest earthquakes are quite long.
When they strike, however, they are devastating. In a recent paper (Bilham etal, 2001) the
intensities of the 1833 earthquake were studied. In this paper Bilham et al, speculate that
there could be a seismic gap in the Himalayan collision zone between the longitudes of 80
and 85 degrees east, corresponding to western Nepal. This is indicated in Fig. 3.2. The area
of interest in the present study falls to the north west of the figure.
54
•<&$ 85"E WE
K> 0 SOD lOflOfcm
1 \\
la 5 mi > £LiY
SriV •--•
H ¥ 1 S S.V..
. 1 * I iff
301*
twfit- £ »."flL^t •So- —
: •?- p. | ^ f « §*f 2g \j
70"E 755E
1991
rr5s)i
| Hiluirly.y |
| Kacj;ra I'XrT
| AîuilKU?~|
MStW
1833
mn
wool
fi 12 - if ni> slip since 1255

& - Iftinslipsince MOO
S - if fill atip JiirH.1; l<iOO
Fa 4 _ I
Q
< 0_
Fig. 3.2 Model ofthe Himalayan collision zone indicating the location of historical large
earthquakes and apotential seismic gap. (Bilham et al, 2001)
Gautam et al, (2002) conclude similarly that in the central part (28-29° N, 82-84° E) and
eastern part (27-28° N, 88-89° E) of Himalaya region, the energy released by seismic events
is much less than in the western part (29-31° N, 79-81.5° E). Following this seismic gap
hypothesis a qualitative seismic hazard map for the larger Himalaya region may look as
indicated in Fig. 3.3.
55
3.3 Regional Geological and Tectonic Setup
The Indian subcontinent and its surroundings are subjected to varying degree of earthquake
hazard. Majority of the seismic events are located in the Himalayas, seismically the most
active continent-continent collision zone which accounts for approximately 15% of globally
yearly seismic energy release. The study area of Srinagar city is part of the northern most
state in India, i.e., Jammu and Kashmir lying in such seismically active belts of the world.
This region has experienced many damaging earthquakes in the past.
The crystalline terrains of the western Himalaya have complicated tectonic history and the
major belts of the region are demarcated by major thrusts. The Main Mantle Thrust (MMT)
separates the Kohistan arc from Peshawar and Kashmir basins of the Indian Plate whereas
the Main Karakoram Thrust separates the Hindukush-Karakoram belt from the island arc of
Kohistan. The most spectacular structural feature of the western Himalayan orogen is the
Syntaxis. This syntaxial bend is reflected by the Jhelum re-entrant, which is flanked on
either side by the Kashmir and Peshawar basins.
The Higher Himalayan rocks constitute of Precambrian high-grade metamorphic and
plutonic rocks including granites and migmatites that belong to Central Crystalline. This
basement is overlain by the Tethyan sedimentary rocks with a tectonic contact. The
Tethyan sequence comprises over 10 km thick sedimentary rocks whereas, the crystalline
rocks consist of a 5 to 40 km thick metamorphic sequence, composed mainly of deformed
amphibolite to lower granulite facies para-gneiss and minor granitic gneiss (Upadhyay,
2002). Further, this Higher Himalayan Crystalline forms an orogenic wedge, bounded by
the MCT at its base and by the extensional structures of the south Tibetan Detachment
system at the top (Hodges, et al, 1992). The Tso-Morari Crystalline Complex is a well-
known feature in the Higher Himalayan Crystalline, which, is tectonically uplifted
basement rocks of Precambrian age (Virdi, et al, 1978, Thakur, 1992).
56
Calcutta.^. 5^
Fig. 3.3 The Himalayan collision zone after Bilham et al. (2001). This view of the
collision zone shows the estimated slip potential along the Himalaya
and urban populations south of the Himalaya (U.N. sources). Shaded
areas with dates next to them surround epicenters and zones of rupture
of major earthquakes in the Himalaya and the Kachchh region, where
the 2001 Bhuj earthquake occurred. Red segments along the bars show
the slip potential on a scale of 1 to 10 meters, that is, the potential slip
that has accumulated since the last recorded great earthquake, or since
1800. The pink portions show possible additional slip permitted by
ignorance of the preceding historic record. Great earthquakes may have
occurred in the Kashmir region in the mid 16th century and in Nepal in
the 13th century. The bars are not intended to indicate the locus of
specific future great earthquakes, but are simply spaced at equal 220-km
intervals, the approximate rupture length of the 1934 and 1950
earthquakes. Black dots show population centers in the region; in the
Ganges Plain, the region extending -300 km south and southeast of the
Himalaya, the urban population alone exceeds 40 million (inset). This
simplified cross section through the Himalaya indicates the transition
between the locked, shallow portions of the fault that rupture 1 great
earthquakes, and the deeper zone where India slides beneath Southern
Tibet without earthquakes. Between them, vertical movement,
horizontal contraction, and microearthquake seismicity are currently
concentrated. (Un-abbreviated caption after Bilham et al. (2001).
57
The doubly plunging anticlinal fold of this represents a domal upwarp of the basement.
The Shyok Suture, which is south-eastward extension of the Karakoram Fault is the
northernmost prominent tectonic feature present in the north eastern part of the study area
and has affected the region with a huge dextral offset. Three splays curving westward
through the central Pamir; the Tangkul, Murghab and Karasu faults accommodate the
movement in the central part of the Karakoram Fault (Searle, 1996). This fault controls the
*
alignment of Siachen glacier and the Nubra-Shyok valley.
The Shyok Suture Zone with a NW-SE trend represents an oceanic suture (Gansser, 1977)
or a relic of back-arc basin (Sharma, 1991). This suture zone shows huge displacement
affected by the strike slip movement of the rock masses of the region along the Karakoram
fault. The tectonic evolution of this suture zone is believed to have resulted from collision
of the Kohistan island arc with Asian margin. The Kohistan and Asian plate rocks are
separated by a series of brittle faults called the Main Karakoram Fault. The sedimentary,
volcanic and plutonic rocks of the Shyok suture zone are intensely deformed and occur as
tectonic slices between the Ladakh and Karakoram batholiths. The major tectonic slices of
this suture zone are, Khardung Formation; Hundri Formation; Shyok Volcanics; Saltoro
Molasse, Shyok Ophiolitic Melange and Tirit Granitoids.
The Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) marks the collision of the Asian plate and Kohistan which
began with initial tectonic thickening and high pressure, high temperature metamorphism,
followed by post metamorphic southward-directed thrusting as rocks of the Asian plate
were thrust over Kohistan. The MMT is represented by thick zone of highly disrupted
melange along with abundant mylonite affected by set of brittle normal faults (Chamberlain
and Zeitler, 1996). The geology of the northern margin of the Indian plate is remarkably
uniform along hundreds of kilometer of the MMT. The rocks in the Indian plate consist of
low to high-grade calcareous schists, minor marbles and amphibolites, and basement
58
gneisses affected by thrusting. The geology of the region around Srinagar is shown in Fig.
3.4.
The Indus Suture Zone (ISZ) marks the boundary between the Indian and Tibetan plates and
south of this litho-units of the main Himalayan belt are exposed. This zone is represented by
the obducted materials of the Neotethyan oceanic crust together with deep marine Triassic
to Eocene sediments. The Ophiolite Melange Zone consisting of ultramafic rocks is exposed
"*
as a discontinuous linear belt along ISZ in Ladakh. This zone is overthrusted by the south
dipping Lamayuru Complex deposited on the leading passive edge of the Indian
subcontinent (Upadhyay and Sinha, 1998). Other important geological units are Nindan
Formation, Dras Volcanics, Indus Formation, Kargil Formation, Ladakh Batholith and
Spongtang Klippe in Sanskar.
59
72°E 73°E
37°N
-36°N
35°N
34°N
33°N
32°N
73°E 74°E 75°E 76°E 77°E 78°E
0 50 100 200
LEGENDS:
— i Km
J TYans Himalayan Tectogen Older coversequencefoldedduringHimalayan

^^^^^ fold-thrust movement
Aceretionary Complex Late to post tectonic granitoid
Island/accreted arc with sediments Alluvial fill in Superposed basin
Older foldedcover sequenceoverpnntedby Himalayan I Pre tosyntectonic granitoid

fold-thrust movement
Cover rocks of frontal belt affected by fold-thrust

movement during terminal phase of Himalayan orogeny
Fig. 3.4 Geological setup of the North Himalayas around Kashmir (After GSI Atlas 2000)
60
The Main Central Thrust (MCT) located south of Indus suture zone is terminated against the
Kishtwar fault. The MCT is considered as one of the most important tectonic surfaces
throughout the entire Himalaya almost up to the eastern syntaxis. MCT forms the northern
boundary of the Lesser Himalayan belt, which, is separated from the Frontal Belt
(comprising the Siwalik sequence) by the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT). The Siwalik is
mainly arenaceous facies and represents a molasse deposit (predominantly sandstone and
boulder beds), which was deposited in a fore deep at the end of the Tertiary orogeny in
Himalaya. The MBT is not a single thrust plane and the configuration is produced on the
surface by an overlapping of thrust sheets. The Siwalik belt occupying a sprawling foothill
zone consist of outcrops of Tertiary rocks in several folded and faulted strips. The Siwalik
present a picture of folded structural belt with broad synclines alternating with steep, often
± faulted, narrow asymmetric anticlines. The axial planes as well as the strike faults and
thrusts on their limbs are steep at the surface and dip more gently northwards at depth
(Srikantia and Bhargava, 1998).
North of MBT the region is occupied by the high mountain range called the Pir Panjal
range. This range is composed of highly compressed and altered rocks of various ages
*" forming high mountains. North of this a saucer shaped valley with a length of 135 km and
width of 40 km is situated which is known as Valley of Kashmir and is bounded by the
Ladakh Himalayas towards north. In this region the rock units as well as structural features
trend in arcuate fashion with southwestward concavity and in the intervening areas the
concavity is in the opposite direction. According to Krishna Rao and Rao (1979) the three
♦ prominent tectonic units recognizable in this area are: (i) the broad Autochthonous Zone,
exposing chiefly the Neogene sediments with local inliers of Eocene and Pre-Tertiary
limestone with a series of prominent anticlines and synclines and a number of strike faults;
(ii) the narrow parautochthon zone, between the Murree and Panjal thrusts, consists of
61
upper Carboniferous-Permian sediments, volcanics and the Eocene outliers; and (iii) the
allochthonous zone, thrust over the parautochthon, consists of rocks of Salkhala/Dogra units
with granitised portions within folded synclines of Paleozoic, Mesozoic and Triassic
sediments.
The two concurrent thrusts on the southern part of the Himalayas delimit the autochthonous
belt (Wadia, 1966). Among these the Panjal Thrust is considered most significant involving
large-scale displacements. The Murree thrust shows greater vertical displacements and
steeper inclinations with persistence over the whole region. The autochthonous belt between
the two thrusts consists of a series of inverted folds of Eocene rocks enclosing Permo-
Carboniferous Panjal volcanics and Triassic formations. Panjal volcanics (traps) is
underlain by Tanawals. The contact between the Murree and Tanawals named as Panjal
thrust. In Jammu foothills two major structural units can be recognized and these are (i) the *
Suruin-Mastgarh antcline bordering the plains and (ii) the folded and faulted belt to the
northeast of Suruin-Mastgarh antclinal unit (Karunakaran and Rao, 1979)
Some faults that are transverse and sub-parallel to the Himalayan trends are observed to be
associated with neotectonic activity. The N-S trending Jhelum fault among these is most
extensively present. It is a left lateral wrench fault, which separated Peshwar Basin from the
Kashmir Basin (GSI, 2000). Towards south of this fault, the Mangla fault crosses it with
right lateral wrench movement along the fault. The Tarbela fault, located within the
Peshwar Basin is sub-parallel to the Jhelum fault. Another alike fault is Shinkiari Fault
developed along the eastern margin of the Peshwar Basin. These faults cut across the
alluvium and exhibit dislocation of strata and streams.
62
Tectonic Map
72°(r()"K 74°0'()"E 76°0'0"E 78W E
I J I I J L
38o0'0"N- h38o0'()"N
N
A
37WN* •37°0'0"N
Am.VTAOHF,..N
36°0'()"N- -36°0'()"N
•*
35°0'0"N- -35°0'0"N
34°<)'0"N- -34°0'0"N
33<WN- •33°0'0"N
32°0'0"N- -32°0'0"N
31°0'0"N- -31°0'0"N
Kilometers
45 90
1 1 1 1 1 I 1
72°0'0"E 73°0'0"E 75°0'0"E 77'W'E 78°0'0"E
*
Legend
Fault
_* * Thrust
Fig. 3.5 Tectonic set up of the area around Srinagar city
63
The Attock fault subparallel to the Himalayan trend also displays neotectonic activity. The
Salt Range Thrust (SRT) marks the thin skinned thrusting localised within the Salt Range
*
formation that underlies the Potwar Plateau and extends eastward into the Jhelum re-entrant.
The Salt Range is considered to be an up thrown block ofa low angle thrust fault and forms
a decollement structure. The Reasi Thrust is the western extension of the Jwalamukhi
Thrust. Based on the geological and tectonic setup (Fig. 3.4) the map as shown in Fig. 3.5
has been prepared showing the tectonic units in terms of faults and thrusts in the region *
around Srinagar city.
3.4 Seismicity
This region has experienced many damaging earthquakes in the past such as Kangra
-t
Earthquake (April 04, 1905; A/= 8.0); Northwest Himalayan (Rawalpindi) Earthquake
(Feb. 02, 1929; M=7.1); Kashmir Earthquake (May 30, 1885; M=7.0); Chamba
Earthquake (June 22, 1945; M =6.5); Pattan Earthquake (Dec. 28, 1974; M=5.9);
Anantnag Earthquake (Feb. 20, 1967; M=5.5); Badgam Earthquake (Sept. 02, 1963;
M=5.1) and Muzaffarabad Earthquake (Oct. 8, 2005 M=7.4). To explain the cause of
occurrence ofearthquakes and to understand the seismotectonics ofthe Himalayan collision
zone, various models have been proposed for the evolution ofthe Himalaya. Ofthese, two
models namely, Steady State Model and the Evolutionary model have gained considerable
importance. Steady state model (Seeber et al, 1981) postulates that the active low angle
contemporary thrusts i.e. MCT and MBT converge with the plane of detachment, which
marks the interface between the subducting Indian slab and overlying sedimentary wedge.
Whereas, the basement thrust in this model represents that part of shallow dipping
detachment surface where the MCT merges and hence spatially the basement thrust is
64
located just north of MCT. According to this model the great Himalayan earthquakes are
related to the detachment surface. The evolutionary model (Ni and Barazangi 1984)
postulates that zone of plate convergence has progressively shifted south by formation of
intra crustal thrusts and hypothesizes that the MBT is the most active tectonic surface and
that the seismicity is concentrated in a 50 km wide zone between the map trace of MBT and
MCT. This model suggests that the rupture of Great Himalayan earthquakes may have
started in the interplate thrust zone, which propagated south along the detachment to the
MBT and further south to the subsidiary blind thrusts making MBT the most active thrust
rooted in the detachment. Both these models suggest that the contemporary deformation
styles in the Himalayas are guided by the under thrusting of the Indian thrust along the
detachment surface.
4- The earthquake data in and around the Kashmir valley for a 6° x 6° region has been
compiled from International Seismology Center (ISC) for the region. The Data contained
the seismic events for the period 1901-2005. However, the events that occurred between
1901 and 1963 carried no magnitudes. This data was supplemented by the data files
provided by Indian Meteorological Dept (IMD) New Delhi and from the USGS catalogue.
^ The magnitude distribution in the area is as follows:
Table 3.1 Event Magnitude Distribution
M = 8.0 01
7.0<M<7.9 11
6.0<M<6.9 25
5.0<M<5.9 98
M < 5.0 The rest
65
The main events in the area are Kashmir Earthquake (May 30, 1885; M = 7.0), Kangra
Earthquake (April 04, 1905; M =8.0), Northwest Himalayan (Rawalpindi) Earthquake (Feb.
02, 1929; M = 7.1), Chamba Earthquake (June 22, 1945; M = 6.5), Badgam Earthquake (Sept.
02, 1963; M = 5.1), Anantnag Earthquake (Feb. 20, 1967; M = 5.5) Pattan Earthquake (Dec.
28, 1974; M = 5.9) and Muzaffarabad Earthquake (Oct. 8, 2005; M = 7.6). The Badgam
Earthquake having its epicenter about 5Km south of Badgam (Lat. 33.90° N; Long. 74.70° E)
occurred on September 2, 1963. Over 2000 houses were damaged resulting in the death of
several persons. Pattan Earthquake of December 28, 1974 had its epicenter as: Lat. 35.10 N;
Long. 72.90° E. A population of around 60,000 in the areas of Swat and Indus Kohistan were
affected. The Karakoram highway was badly damaged.
The Kashmir Earthquake of October 8, 2005 with its epicenter about 125 km. NW of Srinagar.
(Lat. 34.40° N; Long. 73.56° E; Mag. 7.6) devastated the Kashmir valley on both sides ofthe X
line of control (LOC). It caused gigantic landslides of unusual dimensions burying human
settlements, blocking roads and obstructing rivers.
Macroseismic survey data of Anantnag Earthquake (Feb.20 1967; magnitude 5.5) indicates the
epicentral intensity as VII on MM scale. The isoseismal elongation was N-S. Various grades of
damage were caused in 250 sq km area where 10% of the houses suffered total or partial
collapse.
The Kangra Earthquake of April 4, 1905 was a great earthquake of the Himalayan region.
About 20000 human lives were lost. Buildings were completely damaged. Numerous landslides
were triggered and earth fissures were generated
The seismicity ofthe region in terms ofthe epicenters ofthe earthquakes that occurred in this
region is shown in Fig. 3.6.
66
72.0 E 73.0 E 74.0 E 75.0 E 76.0 E 77.0 E 78.0 E
Kilometers
A 2.5-4.5
:*. 4.6 - 6.0
A 6.1 -7.0
• 7.1-8.0
72.0 E 73.0 E 74.0 E 75.0 E 76.0 E 77 0 E 78.0 E
Fig. 3.6 Seismicity of the Kashmir region and it's vicinity for the period 1552-2005
67
I
3.5 Treatment of Seismicity Data
Most of the work reported for the seismic hazard assessment has used seismic catalogues
which are highly uncertain and incomplete. This has lead to unreliable results. It is
necessary to treat the seismicity catalogue for its homogeneity and completeness (in time as
well as size)
A complete earthquake catalogue with a uniform magnitude scale for expressing the size of
past earthquakes is a prerequisite for a reliable parameterization of the magnitude
distribution used in a hazard analysis. The earthquake catalogue used here covers the area of
study, that is, the region between latitudes 31-37° N and longitudes 72-78° E. The number
of earthquakes per decade was grouped in five magnitude ranges3.5 < M < 4.4;
4.5<M<5.4; 5.5<M<6.4; 6.5 < M < 7.4 and M>7.5. Table 3.2 represents the
* statistics of earthquakes reported in each decade since the beginning of the available
historical record. The data are poorly reported in the whole catalogue and this may be due to
inadequate observations. From the decade 1921-1930, the data are slightly better recorded.
The most significant improvement in the recorded data occurs in the decade 1961-1970.
For seismic hazard analysis of an area, it is essential to examine the available seismicity
data of the region for assessing the nature and degree of its completeness as the quality of
analysis depends on it. To facilitate interpretation and evaluation of the observed data, the
data needs to be organized, presented and properly reduced and this can be established by
several methods. In case of seismic analysis, the data should be homogeneous, complete and
on a uniform scale. For completeness the data sample should include all earthquake events
which occurred in a certain time period and have magnitudes larger than a certain minimum
value.
68
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3.5.1. Homogenization of Catalogue
The catalogues contain the size of the earthquakes in terms of magnitude which are
generally reported on different scales, in general, Mh, M,, Ms and Mw . The conversion
of different magnitudes as reported in the catalogue to a single scale is known as
homogenization of the catalogue for size. The data on aftershocks and foreshocks have been
removed to consider only independent events in the catalogue. Such filtering has been done
M
by analyzing the spatial and temporal distribution of the events based on modified Omori's
relationship (Utsu, 2002). Generally, the magnitudes reported are in terms of teleseismic
body-wave magnitude (mb) and hence need to be converted into equivalent Mw or Ms
using suitable empirical relationships. The relationships proposed by Atkinson and Boore
(1995) (used for preparing the earthquake catalogue for eastern North America) and
Johnston (1996) (based on worldwide data of stable continental earthquakes) may be used
to estimate Mw.
The linearly regressed surface wave magnitude value Ms has been analyzed by Joshi and
Sharma (2006) and for linear homogenization the value in terms of Ms are given as
Ms =1.38MA -1.029; r2 =0.684 (3.1)
Ms = 0.962M, - 0.235; r2 = 0.528 (3.2)
Suckale et al, (2005) developed relationships using Maximum Likelihood approach for
regression in each set of magnitude scale conversion. The regressions were carried out
assuming that the error of the Mw value and the respective other magnitude type is equal
Mw = 1.2690MS -1.0436 (Converting Ms to Mw) (3.3)
Mw =0.7813«A +1.5175 (Converting mh to Mw) (3.4)
Mw = 0.6960M, +1.7738 (Converting M, to Mw) (3.5)
70
Finally, the magnitudes were converted to Mw using equations (3.3 to 3.5) for
homogenization of the catalogue
3.5.2 Completeness of Data
The relationship between magnitude Mand frequency N of earthquakes in an area over a

certain given time period suggested by Guttenberg and Richter is
LogNk=ak-bM (3-6)
where a and b are constants and kis the number of years covered by the data sample. Many
other researchers working on different seismically active regions ofthe world (Ishimoto and
lida 1939; Bath, 1981; Wang, 1988) have confirmed the validity ofthe empirical recurrence
relation (3.6). Mogi (1962, 1967) and Scholz (1968) have suggested that the formula holds
-f
good for microearthquakes as well, thereby indicating that it must reflect some fundamental
physical property of the fracture mechanism. The relation is also considered to be closely
related totectonic characteristics of the region for earthquake hazard mapping.
The incompleteness of the existing sample of earthquake data makes it difficult to obtain
fits of equation (3.6). All earthquake catalogues exhibit bias against small shocks because of
lack of seismograph station density or the lack of early records. To obtain fits of equation
(3.6), there are two options: using a short sample period that is complete in events of
smaller magnitudes or a longer sample period that is complete in larger magnitude events
only. Allen et al, (1965) have suggested that asample of short period drawn from small
regions of the dimension of interest in earthquake hazard mapping may not yield earthquake
recurrence estimates that represent long range seismicity. Therefore use of longer samples,
that give more accurate statistical averages of the larger earthquakes, is recommended.
Ameer et al, (2005) have demonstrated that the quality of seismic hazard parameters
71
improves considerably by re-evaluating the frequency magnitude distribution after
correcting the incomplete data sample.
The qualitative and quantitative analysis of the existing data base for Kashmir region and its
vicinity (Fig. 3.6) over the period 1552 to 2005 was carried out. Analysis for completeness,
that is, determining the time period over which the data of a given magnitude interval are
complete, was done by using the procedure described and applied by Stepp (1972).
To analyze the nature of the completeness of the data sample in detail, the entire data set has
been grouped in several magnitude classes and each magnitude class was modeled as a
point process in time. The method as given by Stepp (1972), wherein estimate of a sample
mean which is inversely proportional to the number of observations in the sample, has been
used to check the completeness of data for the entire region. This facilitates making the
variance as small as desired by making the number of observations in the sample large
enough. However, the necessary condition for this is that reporting should be complete in
time and the process should be stationary, that is, the mean variance and other moments of
each observation remain the same. To obtain an efficient estimate of the variance of the
sample mean, it is assumed that the earthquake sequence is modeled by the Poisson
distribution. If x,,x2,x3 xn are the number of events per unit time interval, then an
unbiased estimate of the mean rate per unit time interval of this sample is (Hamilton, 1964)
X=-±x, (3.7)
n ti
and its variance is
a\=X/n (3.8)
where n is the number of unit time intervals.
Taking the unit time interval to be one year, we get
72
a
(3.9)
x
as the standard deviation of the estimate of the mean, where T is the sample length. By
assuming stationary process, it is expected that obehaves as l/yff in the sub-interval of the
450-year sample, in which the mean rate of recurrence in a magnitude class is constant. In
other words, for a constant X, the standard deviation (cr,) varies as l/VT where T is the
>
time interval of the sample. For a constant mean rate of recurrence, we expect stability to
occur only in the sub interval that is long enough to give a good estimate of the mean but
too short to include intervals in which reports are not complete.
These data are used to compare the standard deviation of the estimate of the mean through
equation (3.9). The results are shown in Fig.3.7. Several features significant to statistical
treatment of earthquake data are revealed in Table 3.3 and Fig. 3.7. These features are
independent of the approach used for analysis, that is, these features remain unaffected
whether one uses the empirical formula log Nk =ak-bM, the extreme value distribution,
or other statistical approaches. For completeness of data set, for a particular magnitude
interval in Fig. 3.7, the plotted points are supposed to define a straight line relation.
For a given seismic region the slope of the lines for all magnitude intervals should be the
same. For the magnitude range 3.5 < M < 4.4, the data appears to be complete for last six
years only. For the magnitude interval 4.5 <M<5.4 the data seems to be complete for the
last 35 years, that is, 1971 to 2005 and for the magnitude range 5.5 < M < 6.4 it appears to
be complete for the period 1921-2005. Data appears to be complete for the period 1781 to
2005, that is, 225 years for the magnitude range 6.5 <M<1A. The number of reported
events in each decade for the magnitude range M > 7.5 is less than the number of events
reported for any other magnitude range. However, it is reasonable to assume the
73
unlikelihood of any event of this size not having been reported and hence the data may be
taken as complete for the entire period of 450 years.
4
Table 3.3 and Fig. 3.7 show that there were 35 earthquakes per year of the magnitude range
3.5 < M < 4.4 (average in the interval 1995-2005); 7.6 earthquakes per year of the range
4.5<M<5.4 (average in the interval 1971-2005); 0.525 earthquakes per year of
5.5 < M < 6.4 (in the time interval 1921-2005); 0.05 earthquakes per year of the magnitude
A range 6.5 < M < 7.4 (average in the time interval 1781-2005) and 0.0111 earthquakes per
year of M > 7.5 in the time interval (1552-2005).
3.5.2.1 Frequency Magnitude Recurrence Relation
The number of earthquakes divided according to magnitude, occurring in periods of 10
years, shown in Table 3.3, reveals that the data set for the region under study is not
complete for the entire time period 1552 through 2005. The estimate of b-value computed
using the whole data set without checking its completeness involves errors (Shanker &
Sharma, 1997). The completeness of the data set is checked herewith for various magnitude
intervals and then modified data are used for determining the b-value. The activity rate per
year of earthquakes is taken from the same period for which the data is complete. The data
for each time interval is normalized by respective periods and then the cumulative number
of events taken for computation of b-value.
74
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Plot oflogarithm of cumulative number ofearthquakes per year for M >m, where mis the
magnitude in aparticular time interval is given in Fig. 3.4. The data is grouped along atime
interval of 0.5 for computing the b-value.
10.00
= = E=
z
O 1.00 E==[&i=| 1/SQRT(T)
:5Stj i?j^ ♦
i
i
Q 0.10
ii .
a
3.5-4.4
4.5-5.4
b a 5.5-6.4
z -^8=- ^.trsaJJLT x 6.5-7.4
§ o-oi ==== =
• M>7.5
0.00
10 100 1000
TIME
*- Fig. 3.7 Estimation of the mean of the annual number of events as a function of
sample length and magnitude class
CASE I
15 - '_,
Log:,:(N) = 2.5848-0.57S8M
1 . L_
CASE n
—•05- -__ Log;,(N) = 5J5592-0.9695M
91 °o- - - 'V\ '-*;

to -0 5 - >* -»
-1 -1 - v_l ^ CASE I
-1 5 - N5.- • CASE II
:! \ Linear (CASE I)
_-> c Mill - -Linear (CASE II)
4 6 10
MAGNITUDE
Fig 3.8. Frequency magnitude distribution for CASE I biased data set
CASE II complete data set
The GR relationship in equation 3.10 represented the fitted straight line in least-square
sense for complete sets for each magnitude range with correlation coefficient as 0.9965.
log(;V)= 5.5592 -0.9695M (3.10)

The 6-value computed for the biased sample is 0.5758
76
The analysis suggests that an artificial homogeneous data sample has to be created after
determining the intervals over which earthquakes in different magnitude classes are
completely reported. For each magnitude range, the interval must be long enough to
establish a stable mean rate of occurrence and too short to include intervals in which the
data are incomplete. This helps in minimizing the error of estimate in the mean rate of
occurrence of each earthquake range.
Non uniform seismic character of the region of Kashmir is demonstrated by Fig. 3.4 to 3.7.
It is not possible to suggest that the design earthquake may occur anywhere in the region.
The classification of different seismic regions according to their degree of activity has to be
done based upon the recurrence period for large magnitude earthquakes, which are of
principal scientific interest, and often parameters like geology and tectonic set up (discussed
in section 3.1) and their geophysical anomalies. The incomplete data of earthquakes were _^
essentially to be corrected before initiation of hazard analysis as failure to do so would

cause the recurrence rates of large earthquakes to be over-estimated, while recurrence rates
of small events would be under estimated.
3.6 Seismotectonic Modeling ^
The earmarking of seismogenic sources in a region based on the association of prevalent

seismicity to the local and regional geological and tectonic features considering the different
geological and geophysical anomalies is termed, in general, as seismotectonic modeling of
the area. The zoneless seismic-hazard approach suggested by Frankel (1995) has also been
used in many investigations for seismic hazard assessment. This approach is useful
especially for regions where demarcation of distinct seismic-zone boundaries is difficult due
to a poor understanding oftectonic settings. This approach has been used for development
ofseismic hazard maps of United States (Frankel et al, 1996, 2002). In this approach the
77
entire region is divided into grid cells. The total number of earthquakes from catalog data
greater than a certain cutoff value are summed in each grid cell and then corrected in terms
of number of earthquakes per year, which represents the a-value for that grid cell. The rate
associated with certain magnitude interval for that grid cell are generally estimated using
the correction factor proposed by Herrmann (1977) and the final corrected interval 10a-
value for particular grid cells is spatially smoothed using a Gaussian smoothing function.
The method has the disadvantage of not considering the physical seismogenic sources
present in the region. In case of Himalayas due to its high seismicity the seismogenic
sources are well demarcated and those methods which make use of the physical sources by
considering their geometry and individual behavior of earthquake occurrence should be
preferred. The different methods used for seismogenic source zonation of a region are
classified into three different groups. These methods are briefly discussed here.
3.6.1 Random Seismicity Method
The method is based on the seismicity alone, without using geology to help differentiate
seismic sources. This method has not been used much in the recent years. However a review
of the results of random seismic hazard analysis which considered the entire Los Angeles
region as one zone are not greatly different from the results of other analyses (Schell, 1991).
On the one hand, this suggests that seismic hazard analysis has not progressed much, and, on
the other hand, a more fundamental explanation might be related to the apparently poor
correlation of earthquakes with specific sources.
•»-
3.6.2. Seismotectonic Province Method
The premise of this approach is that a region can be subdivided into discrete areas of similar
geologic (neotectonic) characteristics and that such areas have uniform earthquake potential.
78
Seismotectonic provinces can include narrow, well-defined fault zones as well as broad
areas (Schell et al.; 1985). An underlying goal ofthis zonation is to keep the zones as simple
•V
as possible without ignoring any geologic structure or seismicity. In contrast to other

zonations, creating separate zones for each little patch of seismicity is avoided unless
seimotectonic information requires it. Most small clusters of earthquakes are generally
nothing more than local activity within a larger structural zone.

>
3.6.3 Geologic Slip Rate Method
In recent years, fault slip rates have been used to develop recurrence relationships for
potentially active faults. This technique is based on the moment rate method of Anderson
(Anderson, 1979). This method is attractive because it is based on empirical/field geologic
information representing hundreds to millions of years of geologic processes, and is not
subject to the shortcoming ofseismicity based approaches that rely on an earthquake catalog
that is generally too short to adequately characterize seismic hazards. However, at present
the slip-rate method also has aserious flaw in that there is not enough information to reliably
establish slip rates for most faults.
In the present study, Probabilistic seismotectonic-province method, using large provinces, is A
used for zonation of the region. Fig. 3.9 represents the seismotectonic set up of the study
region. Based on the epicentral map of the region the earthquake occurrence has been
associated with the tectonic set up of the region. The region has been divided into fifteen
seismogenic zones SZ I to SZ XV. The coordinates in terms of longitudes and latitudes of
the boundary points of each zone were determined. In order to associate seismicity with the
seismogenic zones, the computer software ZMAP was used. The buffer zones around the
tectonic features were made considering the geometry ofthe individual seismogenic sources.
The earthquake events falling in the buffer (non uniform) were then assumed to be
79
associated with the particular source. The boundary of individual seismogenic sources in
terms of latitudes and longitudes and the seismicity of the region are inputs. The results
+
represent the seismicity of the particular zone. The various Seismogenic Zones along with
the geological features in each zone are shown in Figure 3.9. The seismicity is pasted on to
each zone with the help of GIS software. Figs. 3.10 to 3.24 show all the individual
seismogenic zones along with the associated seismicity with each zone.
Zone Distribution
-r
72 73 74 75 76 77 78
Longitude
Fig. 3.9 Seismogenic Zones of the region
SZI Sargodha Lahore Delhi Ridge SZIX Jawala Mukhi Thrust

SZII Salt Range Thrust, Kallar Kaber Fault SZX MBT, Drang Thrust
SZIII Attock Fault SZXI Kishtwar Fault
SZIV Jhelum Fault, Mangla Fault, Shinkiari SZXII Indus Suture, Shyok Suture
Fault SZ XIII MCT
SZV Peshawar Fault, Tarbela Fault SZXIV Sundernagar Fault,
SZVI MBT Part MCT
SZVII Main Mantle Thrust szxv Karakoram Fault
SZ VIII Main Karakoram Thrust
80
*
72.0 73.0 74.0 75.0
32.5
32.0 >
31.5
31.0
31.0
72.0 73.0 74.0 75.0
Fig. 3.10 Seismogenic Zone I Sargodha Lahore Delhi Ridge -f
72.0 72.5 73.0

72,0 72.5 73.0
33.&0 33.50
3fl .O
34.0
33.25
33.25
33.00
33.00
33.5
33,5
32,75
32.75
72.0 72.S 730
32,50
32,50
32.25
32.25
72.0 72.B 73.0
Fig. 3.11 Seismogenic Zone II Salt Range Fig. 3.12 Seismogenic Zone III
Thrust, Kallar Kabar Fault Attack Fault
81
*
73.5 74.0
no nx 7M
34.5 • 34.5
X
S4.5
34.0 • 34.0
34,0
33.5 • 33.5
Fig. 3.14 Seismogenic Zone V Tarbela

Fault, Peshawar Fault
33.0 33,0
73.5 74.0 74.5 76.0 7&.$
35,0 35.0
34.5 34.5
32.5 32.5
73.5 74.0
34.0 34.0
33S 33.5
33,0 33.0
73,6 74,0 74.5 76,0 7S.5
Fig. 3.13 Seismogenic Zone IV Jhelum Fig. 3.15 Seismogenic Zone VI Main
Fault, Mangla Fault, Shinkiari BoundaryThrust
Fault
82
s
76.0 76 S 70© 7«.»

72.0 73.0 74.0 75.0
35,0
36.0
35,5 nt>
35.5
>
35.0
35,0
34,5 76.0 756 76.0 "-5

34.5
72.0 73.0 74.0 75.0
Fig. 3.16 Seismogenic Zone VII Fig. 3.17 Seismogenic Zone IX

Main Mantle Thrust Jwala Mukhi Thrust
X
75,0 75,6 76,0 76,5 77,0
72.0 730 74.0 75.0
33.5 33.6
37.0 330
33,0
32,5
36.5 3JS.S
36,5
32,0
31,0
31.S
316
31.0
31.0
73.0 74.0 75.0
72.0 75,0 75,6 76.0 76.5 77.0
Fig. 3.18 Seismogenic Zone VIII Fig. 3.19 Seismogenic Zone X

Main Karakoram Thrust Main Boundary Thrust,
Drang Thrust
83
7B.2& 7S.G0 76.7B 76jOO 78.2S 7*LSQ
*
S4.2S 34.25 5*0
34.00
33.75
33,50 3S.50
*
33.2B
JM5 75,50 75.75 7^00 76.25 76.50

JZ6
VfcO Hi
Fig. 3.20 Seismogenic Zone XI Kishtwar Fig. 3.21 Seismogenic Zone XIII
Fault Main Central Thrust
77.0 77,5 78.0 78,5
75.0 76.0 77.0 78.0
37.0 37.0
33.5 *• \ 33.5
-f
36,0 36,0 33.0 33.0

I * * *
/ *
32.6 # 4 32.5
3B.0 36.0
* \\
V x •*
32,0 1 32.0
*St \ * «
34.0 * N. 34,0
31.5 31.5
33.0 i 33,0
31.0 \ * 31.0
75.0 76.0 77.0 78.0
30.5 30.5
77.0 77,5 78,0 78,6
Fig. 3.22 Seismogenic Zone XII Fig. 3.23 Seismogenic Zone XIV
Shyok Suture, Indus Suture Sunder Nagar Fault, Part MCT
84
77.0 78.0
75.0 76.0
37.0
37.0 * f * *
* # *
>
* •y**********
36.0
36.0
35.0
35.0
A
34.0
34.0
77.0 78.0
75.0 76.0
Fig. 3.24 Seismogenic Zone XV Karakoram Fault
85
3.7 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA)
This section describes the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) carried out for
the individual seismogenic sources earmarked in the previous section (section 3.6). The
PSHA is carried out with the aim to estimate the potential of each individual seismogenic
source for earthquake occurrence in future. The information regarding seismotectonics,
geology etc. is mostly collected from the Seismotectonics Atlas of India by the Geological
+ Survey of India (GSI). The seismicity associated with each seismogenic source contain two
types of information: macroseismic observations of major seismic events that occurred over
a period offew hundred years, and complete instrumental data for relatively short periods of
time, say the last few decades. The demarcation of the extreme data set with the complete
data set is important in view of the estimations of seismic hazard parameters which are
computed based on these two data sets. In the present study, use of complete part of the
catalogue as well as the extreme part of the data is made for estimation of seismic hazard.
The method employed is the one developed by Kijko and Sellevol (1989). Based on the
completeness analysis and the information on the seismic instrumentation in the Himalayan
region the extreme part and the complete part of the data is summarized for magnitude
greater than 5 in Table 3.4.
The seismicity data shows that the zone SZ X (containing MBT & Drang Thrust) has
experienced the highest number of big earthquakes since 1552. The number of earthquakes
of magnitudes 5 < M < 6 in this zone is 36 and from complete as well as extreme data set,
the number of earthquakes of magnitudes 6 <M<1 is 2. There is one earthquake of

magnitude 8.0.
The zone SZ VII (containing Main Mantle Thrust) has experienced 27 earthquakes of
magnitudes 5 < M < 6 and 2 earthquakes of magnitudes 6 < M < 7 . The zone SZ VI has
experienced the highest number of earthquakes (6 in number) with magnitudes greater than
86
7. The greatest earthquake recorded in this zone is ofmagnitude 7.7 (Srinagar Earthquake;
Jan. 01, 1778).
The zones SZ II and SZ XI are seismically the least active zones. In fact, there are no records
of earthquakes with magnitudes 5 or greater in these two zones.
For the purpose ofestimating the seismic hazard the seismicity data from the catalogue has
been separated into extreme and complete data files. The data from the historical time to
1960 is considered as extreme data in which the maximum magnitude experienced in fixed >
time interval is considered for the hazard evaluation. The data after 1960 is taken as
complete data for seismic hazard estimation.
Table 3.4 Number of Earthquakes in Different Magnitude Ranges (M > 5)
No of Earthquakes in Extreme part ^

Seismogenic No of Earthquakes in Complete
Zone part of Catalogue of Catalogue
5<M< 6 6<M<7 M >1 5<M<6 6<M<7 M>1
5 3 1
SZI
-
SZII
-
-
-
-
-
3 4 2
SZIII
-
SZIV 2 -
-
- -
SZV 1 -
4 -
-
1 4 6
SZVI 4
X
-
SZVII 25 2 2 - "
15 7 2
SZ VIII
-
SZIX 3 -
- -
~
33 3 2 1
szx -
"
SZXI
-
-
-
-
SZXII -
-
3 -
~
SZ XIII 8 -
2 " ~
7 1
SZXIV
~~
-
-
12 4 1
SZXV -
87
Table 3.5 Details of Earthquakes in the Seismogenic Source Zones used for PSHA
Seismogenic ^max 2nd Mma max Mmm Number of Earthquakes from
Zone Complete Part Extreme Part
SZI 6.50 5.5 2.40 28 04

SZII 4.60 4.5 3.60 11 _ _
SZIII 6.50 6.5 3.60 27 04

SZIV 5.0 4.8 2.70 19
szv 6.00 5.0 3.40 12 03
SZVI 7.70 7.0 3.90 52 10
< SZVII 6.20 5.6 3.80 90 02
SZ VIII 6.50 6.0 3.20 96 09
SZIX 5.50 5.0 1.80 26 —
szx 8.00 6.5 4.00 73 06

SZXI 4.90 4.7 2.80 13
SZXII 5.70 5.5 2.80 31 03
SZ XIII 5.50 5.5 2.10 47 02
SZXIV 7.00 5.2 2.10 36 01
szxv 6.50 6.0 2.40 104 5
Table 3.6 Details of the Input Data for all the 15 Seismogenic Zones.
Details of Input Data

Seismogenic Mmav max
2nd M max
Data Contribution % Data Contribution %
Zone B X
Complete Extreme Complete Extreme
SZI 6.50 5.5 45.00 55.00 89.20 10.80
SZII 4.60 4.5 Only Complete part of Catalogue Used
SZIII 6.50 6.5 47.90 52.10 87.50 12.50
SZIV 5.0 4.8 Only Complete part of Catalogue Used
szv 6.00 5.0 41.60 58.40 75.00 25.00
SZVI 7.70 7.0 89.00 11.00 51.30 48.70
SZVII 6.20 5.6 53.10 46.90 98.90 1.10
SZ VIII 6.50 6.0 51.50 48.50 95.90 4.10
SZIX 5.50 5.0 Only Complete part of Catalogue Used
szx 8.00 6.5 33.50 66.50 94.50 5.50
SZXI 4.90 4.7 Only Complete part of Catalogue Used
SZXII 5.70 5.5 55.40 44.60 93.80 6.20
SZ XIII 5.50 5.5 44.80 55.20 97.10 2.90
SZXIV 7.00 5.2 81.20 18.80 98.00 2.00
szxv 6.50 6.0 45.10 54.90 97.80 2.20
88
The seismicity inthe specific seismogenic zone is assumed to follow the G R relationship.
The maximum likelihood estimation of the maximum probable event is determined using
bounded G R relationship and considering the Poissonian distribution of the earthquakes.
The application of the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation

along with assumption of earthquake events to be Poisson arrivals makes it possible to
evaluate the probability ofoccurrence oflargest magnitude Mwithin tyears as given below
>
G(mlt) = P(M <m) = exp V (3.11)

A -A
where vQ =X[\-F(m0)] , X is seismicity activity rate corresponding to the threshold
magnitude mmn, /? =Mn(lO), where b is Gutenberg-Richter parameter,
F(m) =[Am - A(m)]/[Am - AM and describes the cumulative distribution function of

X
earthquake magnitudes, AMw =exp(- /3Mm3X), Am^ =exp(- /3mmm), Ama =exp(- fim).
Cumulative distribution can be seen as double truncated Gumbel I distribution of extreme
values (Tinti and Mulargia, 1985), which is defined in the range{w0,Mmax}. Parameter mQ
denotes the threshold magnitude for the extreme part of catalogue, and m0 > mmm .
3.7.1 Maximum likelihood estimates of hazard parameters
The data used for determination of seismic hazard parameters X, fi and Mmax are the
largest earthquake magnitudes m0 =(m,,....,mnJ , selected from the first part of the
catalogue, from time intervals (f,,....,t„n) .
From equation (3.11) it follows that the likelihood function of m0, for given A, P and
^max iS
l*(W,M„/Ml)-Ug(ml,t,/A,fi,Mmm)
i=\
(3-12)
89
and the log likelihood function is
/ \ A/ -Aim) vo0t
Ing{m,i/X,p,MmJ= ^_AK ""a Mm^
+ ln
m„ M„
Pm (3.13)
If we assume that complete part of the catalogue can be divided into s complete sub-
catalogues each of time span Tj and complete with known level of completeness
wminV=l> >s)- Let vectors mt = pyj, be magnitudes of recorded earthquakes, where
index i denotes the number of sub-catalogue (/ = \,....,s), j is the number of earthquake
(j =1, ,ni) and nt is the number ofrecorded earthquakes in ith sub-catalogue.
Assuming that occurrence of each observed magnitude is independent of its number, the
likelihood function of mi for given (X, P,Mmax) is
Ll{^PMm3Jml) =Llp*La (3.14)
where Lw can be expressed from Cosentino et al, (1977) as
P"' exp •fit,***

V » J
(3.15)
[exp(- pm,) - exp(- pMmdX)]"'
and
La =X[\ - F(m, )]x exp(- X[l - F(m, )jV( X4 " F(m, )]r, )"' (3.16)
The joint likelihood function is calculated as product of likelihood functions for the extreme
and complete parts of the catalogue, viz
L(0/M) =UL,(0/Ml) (3.17)
Maximization of likelihood function (3.17), for specified value of Mmax, with respect to
parameters P and X provides maximum likelihood estimates of p and X (Kijko and
Dessokey, 1987; Kijko and Sellevol, 1989). The earthquake magnitude for a given seismic
zone, Mmax is calculated from the following condition (Kijko and Sellevol, 1989).
90
M OAs
max'"max +
£,(rz2)-£,(rz,) exp(_Ar) (3.18)
/?exP(-rz2) mm PV ;
where Z, = Um™/A A \ Z2 = M™yh _A \ , and £, denotes an

exponential integral function. Simultaneous maximization of the likelihood function (3.17)
and solution of equation (3.18) provides estimators of three seismic hazard parameters, X,
P and Mmax.
A well known technique (Kijko and Sellevol, 1989) for the estimation of seismic hazard
parameters was used. A computer programme based on this method and written by Kijko
was used for the analysis. Table 3.7 presents the information about the return periods for
earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 and maximum probable earthquake magnitude for 10% and
20% exceedance in 50 years (i.e.; magnitudes of probable earthquakes with return periods
475 and 225 years respectively). The results of seismic hazard analysis are presented for
zones SZ I to SZ XV in terms of seismic hazard parameters X, p,b value, Mmax in Tables
3.8. The highest value of Mmax is estimated for SZ X while the lowest Mmax is estimated
for SZ IV. The different zones giving different values of parameters i.e.; R60, Mmax and b-
value shows the complex tectonic phenomenon of the region. Some of the sources are
having higher seismicity rate while some others are having higher seismic potential to
generate earthquakes of high magnitudes in future. Similar results were obtained when the
whole region was considered as zone KHP by Sharma & Shankar (2001). The Mmax
determined was on higher side as 9.1±2.10 while the b-value reported as 0.77±0.07. The b-
value has been reported as 0.5 <b<1.10 by many studies carried out in the past including
such ranges for R60 and p (Kaila et al, 1972), (Rao &Rao, 1979).
91
Table 3.7 Return Periods ofEarthquakes ofVarious Magnitudes
Seismogenic Return period for Magnitude Mmax Magnitude M
Zone Magnitude 6 event
For 10%o exceedance For 20%o exceedance in
R60 (years) in 50 years 50 years
(Ret period 475 yrs) (Ret period 225 yrs)
SZ I 49.9 6.49 6.41
SZII 453 6.04 5.30
SZIII 54 6.49 6.4
SZIV Mmax predicted 5.3 5.47 5.3
SZV 517 5.97 5.72
SZVI 6.7 7.24 7.05
SZVII 90 6.23 6.15
SZ VIII 23.6 6.50 6.45
SZIX 302.5 6.00 5.95
SZX 29.9 7.90 7.60
SZXI ^max predicted 5.8 5.62 5.50
SZXII Mmax predicted 5.7 5.70 5.64
SZ XIII Mmax predicted 5.4 5.62 5.52
SZXIV 15.5 7.0 6.95
szxv 27.5 6.5 6.45
Table 3.8 Estimated Seismicity Parameters for Different Seismogenic Zones ofthe Region
Seismogenic Seismicity 6-value of Seismicity Estimated

Zone Parameter /? Gutenberg- Parameter X Mmax
Richter equation
SZI 0.48±0.02 0.21±0.01 0.61±0.11 6.55±0.33
SZII 0.73±0.02 0.32±0.01 0.34±0.10 4.73±0.35
SZIII 0.65±0.04 0.28±0.02 0.45±0.08 6.55±0.30
SZIV 0.94±0.05 0.41±0.02 0.50±0.12 5.50±0.58
SZV 0.57±0.02 0.25±0.01 0.20±0.05 6.07±0.34
SZVI 0.50±0.03 0.22±0.01 1.99±0.21 7.74±0.33
SZVII 0.76±0.04 0.33±0.02 2.40±0.24 6.21±0.33
SZ VIII 0.68±0.03 0.29±0.01 1.82±0.18 6.52±0.33
SZIX 0.59±0.07 0.26±0.03 0.68±0.13 6.06±0.69
SZX 0.75±0.05 0.33±0.02 1.82±0.20 8.16±0.37
SZXI 0.56±0.10 0.24±0.04 0.35±0.10 5.24±0.47
SZXII 0.59±0.08 0.26±0.03 0.72±0.13 5.73±0.33
SZ XIII 0.23±0.03 0.10±0.01 0.72±0.10 5.51±0.33
SZXIV 0.25±0.03 0.11±0.10 0.98±0.16 7.04±0.33
szxv 0.64±0.03 0.28±0.01 1.88±0.19 6.53±0.33
It is interesting to note that the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation (i.e. b = /?/lnl0) is
found to be highest in the seismogenic zone SZ IV though this region has not experienced the
92
I
largest earthquake during the last few hundred years. The b-values have been estimated very
low in comparison to the b-value estimated as 0.9694 for the whole region (see Fig 3.8). For the
estimations of seismic potential of the individual seismogenic sources the earthquake
occurrence data is also re-visited for estimation of 'a' values using fixed b-value as 0.9694 for
estimation of strong ground motion due to these seismogenic sources in the region.
Table 3.9 Earthquake Magnitudes for Different Return Period
Seismogenic 10%) Exceedance 20%> Exceedance 10%) Exceedance

Zone in 50 years in 50 years in 100 years
R225 R475 R950
SZI 6.45 6.55 6.55
SZII 4.7 4.7 4.7
SZIII 6.45 6.55 6.55
SZIV 5.35 5.5 5.5
SZV 5.9 6.0 6.07
SZVI 7.65 7.74 7.74
SZVII 6.15 6.20 6.21
SZ VIII 6.45 6.5 6.52
SZIX 5.9 6.0 6.06
szx 7.8 8.0 8.1
SZXI 5.1 5.2 5.24
SZXII 5.6 5.7 5.73
5.4 5.5 5.51

SZ XIII
SZXIV 7.0 7.04 7.04
szxv 6.4 6.5 6.53
The return periods for various magnitudes in different seismogenic zones have been plotted in
Fig. 3.25. The probabilities of occurrence of magnitudes in 50, 100 and 1000 year return
periods are plotted for all the fifteen seismogenic zones in Figs. 3.26 to 3.28
93
10000
-SZI
-SZII
i / 1/ if f -SZIII
100 •/1 / / if' -SzlV

-szv
-SZVI
1
/ /i • •'
/ • /
-SZVII
I fy Sli jiW J*
SZ VIII
E vyjk -szix
8 v**^2 -szx
SZXI
f^s*^ Wp^ -SZXII
J*tJ1 SZXIII
.^*î •^^SS^*' &>y- - SZ XIV
+<£*^î -szxv
1^*^ „l^*—
^3^ ---
2 3 4 5
Magnitude
Fig. 3.25 The return periods of earthquakes of all magnitudes in different

seismogenic zones
94
Probability in 50 Years
I—: ^-PL-- i wjl *t

\
j\
-SZI
1 1 1
> 1
-SZII
-SZIII
-SZIV
-szv
-SZVI
i ^ I i SZVII
-SZ VIII
-SZIX
-SZX
r^
i
-SZXI
-SZXII
- SZ XIII
-SZXIV
SZXV
4 5
Magnitude
Fig.3.26 Probability of occurrence of earthquakes of all magnitudes in all the

Seismogenic zones in 50 years
100 Year Probability
-* mwmw
= p r? s
=¥I ?f •\ \ "H-1 i
1 \ -SZI
M .
1\ -SZII
-SZIII
l
.
-SZIV
1 -szv
-SZVI
SZVII
-SZ VIII
1- -SZIX
-szx
SZXI
SZXII
-SZ XIII
-SZXIV
-szxv
4 5
Magnitude
Fig. 3.27 Probability of occurrence of earthquakes of all magnitudes in all the

95
probability in 1000 years
"T"»
r^ !\rL-
i-
\
L
SZI
SZII
SZIII
-A- SZIV
-A-szv
V -x-szvi
•*
- e - SZVII
—t— SZVII
SZIX
—szx
- x - SZXIII
-A-SZXII
-l—SZXIII
SZ XIV
-B-SZXV
4 5
Magnitude
Fig. 3.28 Probability of occurrence of earthquakes of all magnitudes in all the

96
Chapter 4
Strong Ground Motion at Bedrock

r
4.1 Introduction
The seismic hazard assessment for all the Seismogenic Zones provided the hazard
parameters which have to be used with strong motion attenuation relationships to predict
strong ground motion at the site or area for seismic microzonation. The attenuation
4
relationships predict the motion at the bed rock or at the surface by using some
classification of soil types below the site. In the present study the attenuation relations
predicting strong motion at the bed rock are used and then the ground motion is modified
for the surface using soil characteristics.
It is well known that uncertainties are essential in the definition of all elements that go
into seismic microzonation, particularly since the uncertainties often drive the results,
and increasingly so for low-exceedance probabilities. As might be anticipated this can
sometimes lead to difficult choices for decision makers. Rational solutions to dilemmas
posed by uncertainties are based on the utilization of some form of probabilistic seismic
hazard analysis. In contrast to the typical deterministic analysis, which (in its simplest
form) makes use of discrete single-valued events or models to arrive at the required
description of earthquake hazard, the probabilistic analysis allows the use of multi-valued
or continuous model parameters. Most important is the fact that the probability of
different magnitude or intensity earthquake occurrence is included in the analysis.
Another advantage of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is that it results in an estimate
of the likelihood of earthquake ground motions or other damage measures occurring at

the location of interest which allows for a more sophisticated incorporation in seismic
microzonation exercise.
97
The present chapter describes the estimation of strong ground motion at the bed rock
level by considering the seismogenic sources present in the region (as described in
Chapter 3), probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and then prediction of strong ground
motion at bed rock level using appropriate strong motion attenuation relationships.
4.2 Strong Ground Motion Attenuation Relationship
One of the important components of seismic microzonation is the prediction of strong >
ground motion. The design of any engineered structure is based on estimate of strong
ground motion, either implicitly through the use of building codes or explicitly in the site-
specific design of large or particularly critical structures. There are, rarely sufficient
number of ground motion recordings available near a site or in an area for carrying out
seismic microzonation to allow a direct estimation of the motions expected for a design
earthquake. It is therefore necessary to develop empirical relationships, expressed in the
from of equations or graphical curves, for estimating ground motions in terms of
magnitude, distance, site conditions, and other variables from the set of strong-motion
data from a large region or specific tectonic set up. Being a major research topic in
seismic hazard estimation, such relationships have been developed in the past for various
regions and comprehensive reviews have been published for such relationships
(Campbell, 1985, Joyner and Boore, 1988, Abrahamson and Letihiser, 1989, Fukushima
and Tanaka, 1990, Sharma and Agrawal, 1994, Atkinson and Boore, 1997, Sharma, 1998,
Douglas, 2000 etc.). Most of the relationships are developed using worldwide
acceleration data acquired through the strong motion arrays. For the regions where strong
motion data is not available for such analysis, the attenuation relationships developed for
other regions are used based on the resemblance of the characteristics of the regions. In
98
some of the cases, where lesser data is available the empirical relations are also developed
by pooling some of the data from other regions (Fukushima and Tanaka, 1990).
Since no strong motion data is available from the region, use of spectral attenuation
relationship based on world wide data has to be made. The strong motion estimates are
made using empirical formulae worked out by some research workers for various tectonic
environment. Attenuation relationships are derived by regression analysis using different
distance measures and magnitude measures. Thus different relationships provide

i
different strong ground motion and a judicious dicision to estimate ground motion is
therefore required for adoption in any particular situation. In the present case the spectral
attenuation relationships were explored for use in Kashmir region. The spectral
attenuation relationships for the subduction zones and the shallow crustal earthquakes are
generally available. A review of such relationships is given by Douglas (2000). The
relationships were selected based on the similarity of geological and tectonic
environment, general seismicity of the region along with its source parameters,
parameters used in the attenuation relationship and the reported errors and standarad
deviations in the relationship. One of the important criteria has been the range of
magnitudes and the distance for which the attenuation relationship will be used for
predicitng the strong ground motion. Since the strong ground motion predicted by the
x
relationship covers a large range viz, peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity,
peak ground disopalcement or spectral acceleration, the relationships for the spectral
attenuation predictions were only selected.
Published attenuation relationships for subduction zone earthquake motions (e.g., Iwasaki
et al, 1978; Sadigh, 1979; Vyas et al, 1984, Krinitzky et al, 1987; Crouse et al, 1988,
Youngs et al, 1997, Crouse, 1991) indicate that at distances greater than 50 km from
earthquake rupture, ground motions from these earthquakes are substantially larger than
99
I
those from shallow crustal earthquakes in active regions. All these researchers employed
a single stage regression analysis which was biased by correlations in data. Fukushima
and Tanaka (1990) and Lai et al, (1993) used a two-staged regression technique similar
to that employed by Joyner and Boore (1981). They found attenuation rates for shallow
(depth less than 100 km) earthquake ground motions to be similar to that reported for
crustal earthquakes in the Western United States. They combined shallow crustal and
subduction zone earthquake strong motions into a single data set to develop their
>
attenuation relationships.
The attenuation relationship used in the present work is the one developed by Youngs et
al, (1997). Youngs et al, (1997) restricted the data to subduction zone interface and
intraslab strong motion recordings. The random effects regression model ofAbrahamson
and Youngs (1992), which is equivalent to a two-staged regression analysis (Joyner and
Boore, 1993), was employed. Numerical simulation of large interface earthquakes was ^
used to judge the appropriateness of the attenuation models. Youngs and Coppersmith
(1985) developed a generalized magnitude-frequency density function wherein an
exponential magnitude distribution at lower magnitudes is combined with a uniform
distribution inthe vicinity of the characteristic earthquake.
Young's Attenuation Relationship for Horizontal Spectral Acceleration (5% Damping)

for Subduction Earthquakes (For Rock) is as follows:
ln(v)-0.2418 +1.414M +C1+C2(l0-M)3+C3ln(rn//,+1.7818eO554M) (4.1)

+ 0.006077/+ 0.3846Zr
Standard Deviation =C4+C5M
y = Spectral Acceleration in g
M = Moment magnitude
rn =Closest distance to rupture (km)
H = Depth (km)
Z7 =Source type, 0for interface, 1for intraslab
100
Table 4.1 Constants for Young's et al, (1997) for Rock
c, C2 C3 Q c5
PGA 0.000 0.0000 -2.552 1.45 -0.1
0.075 1.275 0.0000 -2.707 1.45 -0.1
0.1 1.188 -0.0011 -2.655 1.45 -0.1
0.2 0.722 -0.0027 -2.528 1.45 -0.1
0.3 0.246 -0.0036 -2.454 1.45 -0.1
0.4 -0.115 -0.0043 -2.401 1.45 -0.1
0.5 -0.400 -0.0048 -2.360 1.45 -0.1
0.75 -1.149 -0.0057 -2.286 1.45 -0.1
1 -1.736 -0.0064 -2.234 1.45 -0.1
1.5 -2.634 -0.0073 -2.160 1.50 -0.1
X 2 -3.328 -0.0080 -2.107 1.55 -0.1
3 -4.511 -0.0089 -2.033 1.65 -0.1
Young's Attenuation Relationship for Horizontal Spectral Acceleration (5% Damping)
for Subduction Earthquakes for Soil is as follows:
ln(v)=-0.6687 +1.438M +C,+C2(10-M)3+C3ln(rra;;+1.097e0617M)

(4.2)
+ 0.006487/ + 0.3643Z.,
v
Standard Deviation = C4 + C5M
y = Spectral Acceleration in g
M = Moment magnitude
rrup = Closest distance to rupture (km)
7/ = Depth (km)
Z7. = Source type, 0 for interface, 1 for intraslab
Table 4.2 Constant for Youngs et al, (1997) for Soil
c, C2 c3 c4 c5
PGA 0.000 0.0000 -2.329 1.45 -0.1
0.075 2.400 -0.0019 -2.697 1.45 -0.1
0.1 2.516 -0.0019 -2.697 1.45 -0.1
0.2 1.549 -0.0019 -2.464 1.45 -0.1
0.3 0.793 -0.0020 -2.327 1.45 -0.1
0.4 0.144 -0.0020 -2.230 1.45 -0.1
0.5 -0.438 -0.0035 -2.140 1.45 -0.1
0.75 -1.704 -0.0048 -1.952 1.45 -0.1
1 -2.870 -0.0066 -1.785 1.45 -0.1
1.5 -5.101 -0.0114 -1.470 1.50 -0.1
2 -6.433 -0.0164 -1.290 1.55 -0.1
3 -6.672 -0.0221 -1.347 1.65 -0.1
101
Youngs et al, (1997), while developing the relationship, restricted the earthquake data to
subduction zone interface and intraslab strong ground motion recordings. Since the study
area is a subduction zone, the relationship is expected to give reasonable estimates of
acceleration spectra. Moreover, spectra obtained from strong ground motion of three
important earthquake events of the Himalayas (Chamoli earthquake, Dharamshala
earthquake and Uttarkashi earthquake) were compared with the acceleration spectra
determined by using Youngs et al (1997) relationship and the results were found to be
reasonably in agreement. Thus the use of this attenuation relationship for the Kashmir
region is justified. The variation in few stations may be attributed to the local site
condition.
Chamoli earthquake March 29.1999
IV
• Chamoli earthquake
•
0 Predicted values using Youngs et al
0 «0
1 * # 0
•
•
c
<
a.
°9°° 8 0
0.1
•
0.01 • — — 5 r i • t ; !
40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Distance
(Kin)
Fig. 4.1 Comparison between actual PGA values and predicted PGA values (using
Youngs et al, 1997) for Chamoli Earthquake
102
Dharmashala earthquake April 26,1995
• Dharmashala earthquake
10 - 0 Predicted values using Youngs el al
o go
•
1 -
6 •
o O CO
• *
5
CL
•
0.1 -
0.01 •
0001 i 1 1 1 ' '
IO IS 20 25 30
Distance
Youngs et al, 1997) for Dharamshala Earthquake
Uttarkshi earthquake Oct 19. 1991
• uttarkashi earthquake
10 - Predicted values using Youngs et ai
•
• •
1
D<**l
•
»» 0
0.1 ° CO
° o o
0,01 •
001 • - ---r-— — • 1 1 t™— • T" — "-
50 100 153 200 250 300 350
Distance
Youngs et al, 1997) for Uttarkashi Earthquake
103
The finally selected attenuation relationship by Youngs et al. is shown in Fig. 4.4 for
magnitudes 6 and 7.
— Magnitude 6.0
100
^'*""••.
^V *•
10
a
S.
1 \
T • • T
10 100 1000
Distance (km)
Fig 4.4 PGA values using Youngs et al, (1997) used in the present study for PHSA
4.3 Prediction of Strong Ground Motion at Bedrock Level
The estimation of spectral acceleration at the grid points in the area of Srinagar city has
been done by discritising the seismogenic sources. The sources are modeled as areal
sources. The latitude and longitudes of the sources discritised are given in Table 4.3.
The probability of exceedance can be written as
p[y >y*]= JJp[y >y/m,r\fMi(m)fRi(r)dmdr (4.3)

Where P\Y >y'/m,r\ is obtained from the predictive relationship where Young's et al
(1997) has been used for the rock conditions and fM(m) and fR(r) are the probability
density functions for magnitude and distance, respectively. The general theory used is
given in Chapter 3 in the literature review.
A computer code CRISIS99 (Ordaz, 2003) was used to estimate the spectral accelerations.
The seismic hazard parameters as estimated in the Chapter 3 have been used for the
104
seismogenic sources SZ I to SZ XV. Earthquake occurrence was modeled as a Poissonian
process in the present study. The fifteen Seismogenic sources considered in this region were
modeled as areal sources as shown in Fig 3.10. The geographical locations ofthe sites in
Srinagar city were also used as input data.
Table 4.3 Geographical Coordinates of Seismogenic Zones
Seismogenic Zone Seismogenic Zone (Name) Geogi-aphical Coordinates

(Designation) (Longitude, Latitude)
72.00 31.00
SZI Sargodha Lahore Delhi Ridge 72.00 32.33
75.00 32.60
75.71 31.00
72.00 31.00
72.00 32.33
SZII Salt Range Thrust, Kallar Kabar Fault 72.00 33.44
73.37 33.39
73.42 32.48
72.00 32.33
"T
72.00 33.44
SZIII Attock Fault 34.12
72.00
72.92 34.22
73.28 34.17
73.37 33.39
72.00 33.44
73.42 32.48
73.37 33.39
73.28 34.17
SZIV Jhelum Fault,Mangla Fault,Shinkiari 73.23 34.87
Fault 73.42 34.87

73.48 34.56
73.52 34.13
73.77 33.59
74.23 32.55
73.42 32.48
72.00 34.12
72.00 34.5
72.79 35.06
szv Peshawar Fault, Tarbela Fault 72.94 34.87

73.23 34.87
73.28 34.17
72.92 34.22
72.00 34.12
105
74.23 32.55
73.77 33.59
73.52 34.13
73.48 34.56
73.42 34.87
SZVI Main Boundary Thrust 74.66 35.15
75.00 34.64
75.23 34.44
75.60 33.20
75.00 33.00
75.00 32.60
74.23 32.55
1 72.00 34.50
72.00 35.56
73.03 35.93
73.39 36.18
74.00 36.02
SZVII Main Mantle Thrust 75.00 35.89
75.00 34.66
74.66 35.15
73.42 34.87
72.94 34.87
72.79 35.06
72.00 34.50
72.00 35.56
72.00 37.00
75.00 37.00
SZ VIII Main Karakoram Thrust 75.00 35.89
74.00 36.02
73.39 36.18
73.03 35.93
72.00 35.56
75.71 31.00
75.00 32.6
75.00 33.00
SZIX Jawala Mukhi Thrust 75.82 32.58
76.00 32.36
76.45 32.07
76.79 31.00
75.71 31.00
106
76.79 31.00
76.45 32.07
76.00 32.36
75.82 32.58
<
szx Main Boundary Thrust, Drang Thrust 75.00 33.00
75.60 33.20
75.80 33.57
76.95 32.28
76.95 32.00
77.26 31.00
76.79 31.00
75.60 33.20 >

75.23 34.44
75.80 34.39
SZXI Kishtwar Fault 76.10 34.30
76.65 34.28
75.82 34.06
75.80 33.57
75.60 33.20
75.00 34.64
75.00 37.00
76.00 35.82
>
78.00 33.93
SZXII Indus Suture, Shyok Suture 78.00 33.00
77.50 33.56
76.65 34.28
76.10 34.3
75.80 34.39
75.23 34.44
75.00 34.64
75.80 33.57
75.82 34.06
SZ XIII Main Central Thrust 76.65 34.28
77.06 33.91
76.95 32.28
75.80 33.57
77.26 31.00
76.95 32.00
77.06 33.91
SZXIV Sundernagar fault, Part MCT 77.50 33.56
78.00 33.00
78.00 31.00
77.26 31.00
78.00 33.93
76.00 35.82
SZXV Karakoram Fault 75.00 37.00
78.00 37.00
78.00 33.93
107
1e+0 •
1e-1 -
m
CD
*- 1e-2 -
or
1e-3 -
f
1e-4 -
1e-5 -
01 1 10 100 1000
Strong Ground Motion (gals)
Fig. 4.5 Exceedance rates in the study area as computed using PSHA
4.3.1 Strong Ground Motion Predictions for Himalayan Region
The Peak ground accelerations obtained for the 6° x6° area around Srinagar city have been
shown in Fig. 4.6 to 4.9 for the return periods 225, 475, 1000 and 2500 years respectively.
The variation in the patterns shows the shift in the magnitude range for different return
periods. The maximum value of peak ground acceleration has been observed in two
pockets in the region mainly governed by the main seismogenic features like MBT and
MCT. The maximum PGA has been shown in smaller pocket also which is due to the single
events that occurred in that particular region hence increasing the probability of occurrence
of higher magnitudes.
108
T
74 75 76
T Longitude
Fig. 4.6 PGA (in gals) contours for 225 Fig. 4.7 PGA (in gals) contours for 475 years
years at bed rock level at bed rock level
2 34
Longitude Longitude
Fig. 4.8 PGA (in gals) contours for 1000 Fig. 4.9 PGA (in gals) contours for 2500
years at bed rock level years at bed rock level
109
4.3.2 Strong Ground Motion Prediction for Srinagar City
The PGA contours were also drawn in the Srinagar area as shown in Fig. 4.10 to 4.13 for
the return periods 225, 475, 1000 and 2500 years. The locations on which the site
characterization has been done are also shown in the figures.
Traditionally, PGA has been used to characterize ground motion. However, in recent times,
the preferred parameter has been the spectral acceleration. It may be pointed out that the old
practice of scaling a normalized response spectral shape to the design PGA level leads to
different probability ofexceedance over the frequency range ofcivil engineering structures.
The present approach in engineering practice is to use design response spectra, with equal
probability ofexceedance over the entire frequency range ofinterest. Such design spectra
are known as uniform hazard response spectra. The seismic hazard curves of spectral
T
accelerations are computed for a range of frequency values. From these hazard curves,
response spectra for a specified probability ofexceedance over the entire frequency range of
interest are obtained. Fig. 4.14 shows the response spectra obtained for all the sites for
return period of225 years. Since the variation in the area belonging to Srinagar city is very
less envelop of all the response spectra have been taken for the further estimation ofground
motion at the surface after inclusion of local site effects. Similarly Fig. 4.15 shows the
envelop spectra for the return periods of 475, 1000 and 25000 years return periods. These
spectrums have been estimated at the bed rock level and require the inclusion of local site
effects due to the different geotechnical conditions below the sites.
110
74 80 74 85
Longitude Longitude
Fig. 4.10 PGA (in gals) contours for 225 Fig. 4.11 PGA (in gals) contours for 475
years at bed rock level for
years at bed rock level for Srinagar
Srinagar city
city
K^fl
34.15-
l»9 aam^^H
34.10-
B5^^
^*J02^^^B i ^y W^^^
34 05 -
>
^
303
• •
34.00-
•
•aa^tafl
IB.-VU p—*•
74 80 74 85
74 70 74.75 7480 74.85 7490
Longitude
Longitude
Fig. 4.13 PGA( in gals) contours for 2500

Fig. 4.12 PGA (in gals) contours for 1000
Srinagar city
Srinagar city
111
Ap(ceglrtaion 38
350
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 30
Time Period (Sec)
Fig 4.14 Response spectra for 49 sites (as shown in Fig. 4.10 to 4.13) for a return period
of 225 years. The envelop of the spectra istaken for further processing.
800 -
/ \ 475 Years
J \ 1000 Years
* son -
I \ —— 2500 Years
i i i i
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
Time Period (Sec)
Fig. 4.15 Envelops of the Response spectra taken for a return period of 475, 1000 and
2500 years return periods for Srinagar city.
12
Chapter 5
Site Characterization
5.1 Introduction
During an earthquake, one ofthe important phenomena responsible for the amplification of
motion over soft sediments are the trapping ofseismic waves due to the impedance contrast
1 between sediments and the underlying bedrock. In a simple ID horizontally layered
structure, this trapping affects only body waves traveling up and down in the surface layers.
In case lateral heterogeneities such as thickness variations exist, this trapping also affects
the surface waves which develop on these heterogeneities and thus reverberate back and
forth. Due to the interference between these trapped waves resonance patterns are produced;
the shape and the frequency of which are related with the geometrical and mechanical
characteristics of the structure. While the resonance patterns are very simple in case of ID
media, they become very complex in the case of 2D and 3D structures. Most soils amplify
peak acceleration where the firm ground acceleration is less than O.lg, with the largest
amplification occurring in soft to medium stiff clay and sand.
The resonance frequency of each soil type differs depending upon the physical properties of
the soil structure and depth to bedrock. Quantification of this amplification of ground
motion throughout the area of interest and determination of natural resonance frequency is
the main objective of the site response study. This frequency dependent amplification forms
an important factor for seismic hazard analysis. The site response parameters are also used
to distinguish regions where the seismic hazard is high due to amplification from the surface
geology and match of natural frequency of the soil with the construction.
There are many factors that influence the way a site will respond to earthquake ground
motion. The qualitative and quantitative estimation of site effects is often expressed by the
113
amplification factor and resonance/fundamental frequency. Resonance frequency of asoil
media differs depending upon its physical properties and bedrock depth (Kramer, 2000).
The site response parameters can be used to distinguish regions where the seismic hazard
will be high due to an earthquake ofparticular magnitude.
5.2 Methods for Estimating Site Response:
The methods used for estimation ofsite response are broadly categorized as:
i) Numerical Methods
ii) Empirical Methods
iii) Experimental Methods
5.2.1 Numerical Methods
The ground motion should depend on near-surface conditions and if losses due to reflection,
scattering and inelastic attenuation are negligible, the energy along acolumn is conserved
and amplitude is proportional to ~VS where p is density and Vs is shear wave velocity
(Joyner and Fumel, 1985; Aki and Richardson, 1980). The site response can thus be
theoretically estimated through numerical analysis using physical properties of the soil and
rock. Among the numerous simple analytical methods, the one most widely used is based on
multiple theory of S' waves in horizontal layered deposits and is known as 1-D analysis of
soil column. This method requires shear wave velocity, density, damping and thickness of
each layer. Extensive seismic reflection /or refraction surveys and geotechnical
investigations are required to determine physical parameters. This method is extremely
expensive and time consuming. Theoretical estimation is carried out assuming 1-D
114
structure. Ifthe basement is ofundulating nature; this may lead to wrong estimates ofsite
response parameters.
Numerical analyses are based on simplified assumptions:
(i) The structural models are composed of homogenous, isotropic and horizontally
stratified layers through which wave transmission is calculated; the source of
earthquake hypocenter is assumed in one ofthe 2D layers.
(ii) The incident waves are plane and usually ofthe type as SH, SV or P
1
(iii) Only high frequency waves are emitted from the source.
(iv) The medium waves are assumed as elastic or visco-elastic and linear
Simple methods are generally available for estimation in soft soils. For sites with multi-
layered structures, simple calculations can provide satisfactory estimation of the
fundamental frequency/ time period using formulae given by Dorby et al, (1976)
5.2.2 Empirical Methods
Empirical attenuation relationships for a specific site class are applied for estimation ofsite
response to a regional earthquake source model. The technique was adopted in the Southern
California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Phase II report (Jackson et al, 1995). Difficulty in
reducing uncertainty in the attenuation relation is a problem with this technique. Borcherdt,
(1970) introduced sediment-to-bedrock spectral ratio technique. Rogers et al, (1985)
presented site response estimation using 1971 San Francisco earthquake data and
underground nuclear explosions from Navada test. After averaging results over three
frequency bands, clustering techniques were applied to determine which of geotechnical
parameters were influential on site response estimations. At frequencies above 2 Hz near-
surface void ratio (a proxy for shear wave velocity) was found to be most influential with
Holocene thickness and depth to bedrock influential as well. Below 2 Hz Quaternary
115
thickness and depth to bedrock were found to be controlling factors. However, itwas found
that some of the factors are highly interdependent (Rogers etal, 1985) making it difficult to
separate near-surface effects from deeper basin.
From Coda waves
Su and Aki (1995) generated empirical site amplification maps for Southern California
using the S-wave Coda methodology developed by Aki and Chouset (1975), Tsujiura
>
(1978) and Philips and Aki (1986). One ofthe initial motives for using Coda waves was to
take advantage ofthe relatively abundant vertical-component network data for which the
corresponding direct S-wave arrivals are generally clipped. However, in PSHA, this
approach is perhaps most appealing in that the Coda is thought to be composed of scattered
energy coming from a variety of directions (Aki and Chouset, 1975), so the site response
estimates might naturally reflect an average over various source locations. Unfortunately,
there is some disagreement on whether coda site response estimates are consistent with the
direct S-wave response; while some have found agreement between the two (Tsujiura,
1978; Kato et al, 1995), some others have not (Margheriti et al, 1994; Bonilla et al, 1997;
Field 1995) . Another concern is that amplification factors are based on vertical component
network data and may not be applicable to horizontal component motion (Su and Aki,
1995).
From Recent Earthquake Data
Earthquake sequence at the region and aftershocks have also been used for site
amplification estimation by inverting shear wave recordings and obtaining spectral-ratio
estimates (Hartzel et al, 1996; Bonilla et al, 1997). The potential problem with such site
effect estimates is that any difference between the true and assumed path effect will be
116
mapped into the site response, because all such earthquake sequence emanate from main
shock region and any regional focusing effects will contaminate the site response estimates.
To avoid this effect, Harmsen (1997) performed similar inversion for site response at 281
locations in the Los Angeles region using strong motion records of four earthquake events:
1997 San Fernando; 1987 Whitter Narrow; 1991 Sierra Madre and 1994 Northridge main
shock emanating from different directions. Hartzel et al, (1997) prepared a series of 'First
Generation Site Response Maps for the Los Angeles region' by combining Northridge
1
aftershock results with Harmsen, 1997 results of using four earthquakes for site response
estimations. They identified several isolated locations with relatively high amplification
values and this remains to answer whether these will remain high for earthquakes other than
those represented in the inversions, especially when no no formal uncertainty estimates are
provided.
5.2.3 Experimental Methods
5.2.3.1 Nakamura H/V Ratio Method
Nakamura (1996) developed an experimental method, which is very widely used in site
response studies. This method is based on the basic assumption that the effect of surface
waves can be either eliminated or neglected such that the end result is in direct relationship
with the transfer function for S-waves. Nakamura (1996) separated the ambient noise into
body waves and surface waves as:
Smif)-S*if)+Sf{f) (5.1)
= HT{f)R?{f)+S?(f) (5.2)
117
Sw(f) =S;(f) +S:(f) (5.3)
=Hv(f)Rl(f)+S;(f) (5.4)
where R" (f) is the horizontal spectrum of the body wave part of the noise at the
reference site. H/V ratio between SNH (f) and SNV(f) can be written as:
ANHV =[HT.Armv+PX]/[Vr+P] (5-5)

where Afv is the H/V ratio at rock site, /? is the relative proportion of surface waves in
>
the noise =S) {f)JR\ if) and A, is the horizontal to vertical ratio due to surface only i.e.,
s?(f)/s;(f)
This method is based on the assumptions that the vertical component is not amplified at the
fundamental frequency(fH0), H/V ratio on rock is equal to 1 at fH0 , /? is much smaller
than 1 at fH0 and PAs(fHQ) is also much smaller than Hr(fH0). Udwadia and Trifunac
(1978) compared data from strong motion earthquake records and microtremor
measurements at El Centro, California and investigated the reliability of microtremor
method in determining site amplification. Kobayashi et al, (1996) measured microtremors
in both arbitrary site and reference strong motion site in Mexico City. They concluded that
the product of H/V ratio and the spectrum of the strong motion at the reference site can
predict the strong motion at arbitrary site. Nakamura (1996) carried out extensive
microtremor studies and demonstrated capability of the method for site response studies. He
conducted the microtremor tests in Kanonomiya and Tabata, Japan and concluded that the
H/V ratio provided reliable estimation of site response of S waves. The method also reliably
estimates not only the resonant frequency but also the corresponding amplification of a site.
Lermo et al, (1998) and Bard (2000) and Bard et al, (1997) reviewed the problems of site
characterization based on microtremor studies and concluded that the technique would be of
immense help in providing time and cost effective method of response studies. Lermo and
118
Chavez (1994) measured microtremors at 97 sites and found marked difference in the
amplitudes of the spectral ratios and the period of peak response for the low traffic interval
when compared with busier interval hours. These results demonstrate how markedly the
frequency and amplitudes of microtremors are influenced by the source effects.
Aki (1998) reviewed the problems associated with the determination of frequency
dependant, site-specific amplification factors using microtremor method and identified the
inability to separate source-effects from site effects as a major obstacle in effective use of
1
microtremor method. Since the sources are likely to be different for different sites, it is
difficult to determine even the relative amplifications.
Many researchers (Duval etal, 1995; Field and Jacob, 1995; Seekins etal, 1996; Lachet et
al, 1996; Riep et al, 1998) confirmed that the Nakamura H/V ratios are much more stable
than the raw noise spectra. Lachet et al, (1996) proposed that the good match at
fundamental frequency is due to the horizontal-vertical polarization of the Rayleigh waves,

which is in good agreement with the early Japanese studies (Kudo, 1995). According to this
no straight forward relation exists between the H/V peak amplitude and the site
amplification. Toshinawa et al, (1997) gave an empirical relationship between observed
H/V peak amplitude and local intensity increment (MM scale) based on their experimental
study. Bard et al, (1997) compared the amplifications derived from earthquake records and
H/V peak amplitudes for more than 30 sites and demonstrated that the latter is always
smaller than the former.
Comparison with other experimental techniques by different investigators shows that the
Nakamura method allows obtaining, very simply, the fundamental resonance frequency.
Also, the method has proved to be one of the most inexpensive and convenient techniques
to reliably estimate fundamental frequencies of soft deposits. Since the early work by Kanai
(1983), it has repeatedly been found that the spectral features of microtremors exhibit some
119
correlation with a site's geological conditions. Microtremor measurements for site response
estimates have thus been for long one of the preferred approaches in Japan, for several
reasons: i) it can be performed at any time and at any place, ii) the instruments and the
analysis are simple, and Hi) it does not generate any environmental trouble (the importance
of which keeps increasing).
Table 5.1 summarizes the main observations and conclusions concerning the H/V peak
frequency and the corresponding amplitude. Almost all the quoted references provide a
satisfactory estimate of the fundamental frequency which is smaller or equal to H/V peak
frequency. The only exception is reported by Volant et al, (1998) with slight difference i.e.,
fundamental frequency measured using earthquake spectral ratio with respect to reference
site is 2.4 Hz whereas the H/V peak frequency is 1.8 Hz. In the case of H/V amplitude
ratio it is slightly smaller than the amplification measured on earthquake spectral ratios with
reference site. Thus it is concluded that the Nakamura method can be used to estimate the
fundamental frequencies of soil deposits. The microtremor tests were carried out at 50
locations for estimating the local site effects.
5.3 Site Response Estimation in Srinagar City
Microtremor studies are very useful in urban cities like Srinagar with varying geology to go
for the estimation of local site effects. The aim of this study is to estimate resonance
frequency using Nakamura method (Nakamura, 1996), a simple experimental technique
based on microtremor recordings.
Though the use of microtremor in site response estimates has been introduced long ago in
Japan, there have been controversies in the use of microtremor recordings in other parts of
the world, especially the "western world" (Europe and USA). Several studies reporting
mixed results (successes as well as failures), and difficulties in answering major questions
120
have contributed to this mistrust (Atakan et al, 2004). The use of microtremors has
received a renewed attention in the western world after the Guerrero-Michoacan event of
1985, where it appeared clear that the information provided by simple, low cost noise
measurements was consistent with strong motion observations. The situation changed
drastically in the early nineties after the publication of several papers claiming the ability of
the HA/ spectral ratio to provide satisfactory estimates of the site response of soft deposits.
Kudo (1995) provided a very interesting and historical perspective on the various
<
controversies surrounding the use of microtremors for site response evaluation. Bard (1998)
performed a review ofthe main - positive and negative- results over the last half decade.
It is shown that Nakamura study is not only time and cost effective, but also provides stable
response curves for ground characterization and offers a scientific base for microzonation.
The microtremor spectra has a strong correlation with the site conditions that is, a short
predominant period of microtremors (< 0.2 sec) indicates a stiff soil or rock while larger
periods indicate soft deposits. It provides a qualitative index of the soil characteristics.
Kanai et. al., (1954) proposed a method to classify the ground into four categories, which is
used by the Japan Building Code. This classification is based on the detailed comparison of
microtremor results and ground conditions. The peak frequency is interpreted as the
fundamental resonance frequency of the site, which is tested experimentally by various
researchers (Field et al, 1995; Kobayashi et al, 1996; Lermo et al, 1998) in several
countries. Thus the H/V spectral ratio method i.e., Nakamura method is a well established
method for the estimation of site effects. The detailed description of the method and its
testing procedure is explained in this chapter.
It is observed that large concentration ofdamage in specific areas during an earthquake is

due to site dependent factors related to surface geological conditions and local soil altering
seismic motion. The nature and depth of the soil layers have a great influence on the
121
intensity of ground shaking. Various studies have demonstrated the ability of geological and
geotechnical conditions in changing the seismic motion. Microtremor method is very useful
in urban areas to estimate local site effects for microzonation purposes.
5.3.1. Equipment Details
The equipment used to measure the ambient noise was a high sensitivity Guralp make
seismograph (sensor with digitizer) with a sensitivity of 2000V/m/sec. The -^
vibrations/ambient noise was recorded and converted into digital format. The noise was
recorded at 200 sps (samples per second) and consisted of three components viz. the east-
west, the north-south and the z-components. The digital measurements were saved in files
with CM6 extension in the GSE format. Data was recorded in 'CM-6' format which was
finally converted to 'SAF' format after substantial conversion into number of intermediate
formats. The recorded vibrations were also stored in a SCSI disk connected to the
seismograph. All these operations were controlled through the software SCREAM. The
geographical locations of the stations were recorded through a hand held GPS with which
received satellite signals. A GPS was connected to the seismometer and the
latitude/longitude were saved along with the recorded vibrations also.
5.3.2 Data Collection
The data was collected in two campaigns in May 2004 and July 2004, totaling 50 sites
covering the city of Srinagar with ambient vibration measurements. Primarily sites were
selected where borehole information was available. Additional measurements were made to
fill gaps in the coverage. The complete details of the measurement stations are presented in M
Table 5.1 and shown in Fig. 5.1. The measurements were done during the day for at least 20
minutes each. Kind (2002) has confirmed that the one recording of approximately 15
122
minutes is sufficient to retrieve a time invariant of H/V ratio within the limits of error
inherent in the method. Neither long term nor short term variations change significantly the
location ofthe main peak ofthe H/V ratio vs. frequency curve. The sensor was placed on
soil or grassy patches where possible, otherwise on the asphalt ofthe sidewalk. Only one
measurement had to be rejected, resulting in 49 sites where the fundamental frequency was
determined.
Table 5.1 Details of Measurement Stations
S No Station Longitude Latitude SNo Station Longitude Latitude

1 Bagati Barzulla 74.80 34.05 26 Bagi Mehtab 74.81 34.02
2 Sanat Nagar 74.80 34.03 27 Krai Pora 74.81 34.01
3 Rawal Pora 74.80 34.02 28 Kralpora Tanghar 74.82 33.99
4 Rangreth 74.79 34.01 29 Frestbal Pampore 74.91 34.03
5 Kani Pora 74.83 34.01 30 Pandrethan 74.87 34.05
6 Sonwar 74.85 34.07 31 Magarmal Bagh 74.80 34.07
7 Shiv Pora 74.85 34.06 32 Batamaloo Tengpur 74.78 34.07
8 Raj Bagh 74.83 34.07 33 Bemina 74.77 34.08
9 Jawahar Nagar 74.82 34.06 34 Balgarden 74.80 34.08
10 Mehjoor Nagar 74.82 34.06 35 Malkhah 74.82 34.10
11 Chhanna Pora 74.81 34.04 36 NIT Campus 74.84 34.12
12 Methan 74.82 34.03 37 Zoonimar 74.80 34.13
13 Guri Pora 74.80 34.03 38 Soura 74.80 34.14

14 Hyder Pora 74.79 34.04 39 Ahmed Nagar 74.81 34.17
15 Peer Bagh 74.78 34.02 40 Onta Bhawan 74.81 34.13
16 Hyder Pora G 74.79 34.05 41 Elahi Bagh 74.82 34.15
17 Kulipora Khanyar 74.82 34.09 42 Buchh Pora 74.81 34.15
18 Rainawari 74.83 34.10 43 Nishat Brein 74.88 34.12
19 Hassan Abad 74.83 34.10 44 Brein Vakil Col 74.89 34.11
20 Badam Wari 74.82 34.11 45 Shalimar 74.87 34.15
21 Nowhata 74.81 34.10 46 Burzuhama 74.86 34.17
22 Eidgah 74.79 34.10 47 Habak 74.84 34.16

23 Nawab Bazar 74.80 34.09 48 Zakoora 74.83 34.16
24 Chattabal 74.78 34.09 49 Lai Bazar 74.82 34.13
25 Shalteng 74.75 34.11 50 MunawarAbad 74.82 34.08
123
74°44'0"E 74°46'0"E 74°48'0"E 74°50'0"E 74°52'0"E 74°54'0"E
34°10'0"N
34°10'0"N
34°8'0"N
34°8'0"N
34°6'0"N
34°6'0"N
34°4'0"N 34°4'0"N
34°2'0"N 34°2'0"N
34°0'0"N 34°0'0"N
74°44'0"E 74°46'0"E 74°48'0"E 74°50'0"E 74°52'0"E 74°54'0"E
Fig. 5.1 The sites selected in Srinagar city for collecting the data on microtremors. The Dal
lake is also shown in the map.
5.3.3 Data Processing
A dedicated software J-SESAME has been developed under the European project SESAME
(Site Effects assessment using AMbient Excitations) initiated to study the site effects
assessment techniques using ambient vibrations (Atakan et al, 2004). The same has been
used in the present study to estimate H/V ratio. The main processing module performs the
124
basics analyses devoted to the estimation of H/V ratio. The main steps in the processing are
(i) Reading of input time histories in SAF or GSE format, (ii) Offset removal for each
selected time window inside time histories for the DC bias removal if any, (iii) Tapering is
done to taper the signal from both ends to reduce leaking modes while transforming to
frequency domain (iv) Conversion to Frequency domain using FFT, (v) Smoothing of
Fourier spectra for further processing, (vi) Merging of horizontal components, (vii)
Computing H/V ratio and then the output of single window H/V and spectra or average
spectra and (viii) Average of H/V and computation ofresonance frequency. Appropriate
windows have to be selected for averaging of the signal using different sets of Short Term
Average (STA) and Long Term Average (LTA) and STA/LTA values. This is done to select
the appropriate portion of the record containing the signal in form of ambient noise. The
signal below some threshold level is rejected and is not taken for further processing. Most
of the processing is done to enhance the peak in the H/V curve obtained for the station.
Since the software takes only SAF and GCE format, many conversion programs were used
to convert the recorded time series to SAF format. The conversion programs available with
the SEISAN package were used. The three components recorded in separate files were
joined to make a single file for the use by JSESAME. After the data is entered into the
program in a specific mode the windows have to be chosen to select the appropriate data.
Besides the manual selection directly from the screen, which is often the most reliable, but also the
most time consuming, an automatic window selection module is also present for processing large
amounts of data. The objective is to keep the most stationery parts of noise, and to avoid the
transients often associated with specific sources. The procedure to detect transients is based on a
comparison between STA and LTA. The H/V vs. frequency curves were then obtained for all
the stations. These curves were studied to determine the most dominant frequency of the
soils. Thus obtained H/V curve for each station are shown in Fig. 5.2.
125
5.3.4 Fundamental Frequency of Resonance
The identification of f„ from the H/V polarization main peaks is not always straight
forward. Sometimes, the H/V polarization main peaks are broad with plateau on top. Fah
et al, (2001) showed in numerical methods that while the upper flank of the main peak is
independent of the source distance, the lower frequency side of the peak does vary with the
source distance. With increasing depth of the sediments the peak amplitude of the H/V
polarization decreased and became difficult to identify. Furthermore, some measurements
within acity are often contaminated with transient signals from passing vehicles or persons,
resulting in large H/V polarization amplitudes at low frequencies. For microzonation,
measurements at such sites cannot be avoided, as major centers in a city tend to be busy all
day. Based on the on the interpretations as given in the figures the H/V ratio, the peak
frequency are given in Table 5.2.
126
<
Fig. 5.2 H/V vs. frequency curves for the measurement stations Contd.
127
j;%zk$£^ w*^
>
128
f
129
J
nA
Vywv—^_v v\ v
>
Fig. 5.2 7//F vs. frequency curves for the measurement stations Contd.
130
~a
< Fig. 5.2 /f/V vs. frequency curves for the measurement stations
Table 5.2 Local Site Properties from Microtremor Data
s. Site(name) H/V Freq Bedrock S. Site(name) Freq

No.
H/V Bedrock
(ampl) (I) Depth No. (0 Depth
(ampl)
(a) (a)
1 Ahmed Nagar 1.50 4.00 22.90 26 Magarmal Bagh 1.90 1.76 41.00
2 Badamwari 1.65 4.15 20.00 27 Malkhah 2.09 1.36 48.20
3 Bagi Mehtab 1.11 4.34 28.50 28 Mehjoor Nagar 2.00 1.26 54.50
4 Balgarden 2.13 2.54 25.25 29 Methan 1.93 1.34 53.00
5 Barzulla 2.00 1.43 48.00 30 Munawar Abad 2.60 1.70 31.00
6 Batamaloo 2.13 1.45 44.50 31 Nawab Bazar 2.56 2.40 22.30
7 Bemina 2.07 1.43 46.40 32 NIT Campus 1.41 5.28 18.40
8 Brein 1.32 3.30 31.40 33 Nowhatta 2.46 2.60 21.50
9 Buchhpora 1.59 2.46 35.00 34 Onta Bhawan 1.41 3.54 27.40
10 Burzuhama 0.93 4.83 30.40 35 Pandrethan 2.01 20.70
3.30
II Chhanapora 1.86 1.44 51.20 36 Peer Bagh 1.88 1.40 52.00
12 Chhatabal 2.57 1.09 49.00 37 Rainawari 2.64 1.89 27.55
13 Eidgah 2.53 1.27 42.80 38 Raj Bagh 1.45 1.82 52.00
14 Elahi Bagh 1.68 3.42 23.80 39 Rangreth 1.69 1.53 53.00
15 F Pampore 1.52 4.52 19.90 40 Rawalpora 1.35 2.03 50.00
16 Guripora 2.29 1.24 48.00 41 Sanat Nagar 1.85 1.62 45.80
17 Habak 1.50 3.37 27.20 42 Shalimar 1.09 3.54 35.40
18 HassanAbad 2.00 2.40 28.60 43 Shalteng 1.73 2.00 39.60
19 HyderporaG 2.24 1.07 57.00 44 Shivpora 1.95 1.74 40.50
20 HyderporaM 1.87 1.51 48.50 45 Sonwar 2.35 2.18 26.70
21 Jawahar Nagar 1.82 2.10 36.00 46 Soura 2.15 3.00 21.30
22 Kani Pora 2.25 1.52 40.00 47 T Kralpora 2.00 1.43 48.00
23 Kralpora 1.10 3.00 41.50 48 Zakoora 1.12 3.18 38.40
24 Kulipora 2.45 2.49 22.50 49 Zoonimar 1.53 4.27 21.00
Khanyar
25 Lai Bazar 1.56 2.72 32.30 r
The predominant frequency as interpreted from the H/Vcurves and amplification factor at
the predominant frequency are shown in Fig. 5.3 and 5.4 respectively for the Srinagar city.
131
34.14 -
34.02
34.00
74.76 74.78 74.80 74.82 74.84 74.86 74.88 74.90
Longitude
Fig. 5.3 The predominant frequency for the Srinagar city as computed using H/V method
[32
34.16
34.14
34.02
34.00
74.76 74.78 74.80 74.82 74.84 74.86 74.88 74.90
Longitude
Fig. 5.4 The amplification factors at predominant frequency for the Srinagar city as computed
using H/V method
5.4 Soil properties
The soil data for the sites was obtained mainly from the Geotechnical Engineering Section,
NIT Srinagar. This soil data contained information regarding the Unit weights (kN/m3) and
the SPT 'AT values for Clay, Sandy soil and loose Gravels. The information is summarized in
Table. 5.3.
I33
Table 5.3 Soil Properties of Various Sites in Srinagar
Soil Type Unit Weight (kN/m3) SPT 'TV
(Average value) (Average value)
Clay 15 13
Sandy soil 18 20
Gravel (loose) 20 26
The bedrock depth was observed to have struck at five locations in the city where 'TV value
recorded was larger than 50 as mentioned in the data provided (Table 5.4.). It was further
clearly mentioned in the data report that the referred bedrock was expected to be densely
packed soil or soft rock.
Table 5.4 Bedrock depth at the sites
Site Bedrock depth recorded (m)

Ahmed Nagar 21.50
Frestabal Pampore 20.00
Badamwari 21.50
NITCampus 19.50
Nawab Bazar 21.50
The shear wave velocity at bedrock and in materials of other soil layers, which is the most
important parameter among soil properties for analysis of dynamic wave propagation, was
not measured at any of the sites. The shear wave velocities were calculated using the
correlation given by Jafari et al, (1997) since it was found that the soil conditions in
Srinagar city are similar to the ones in South of Tehran for which the correlations were
developed.
^=22(V)085 (5.6)
134
The shear wave velocities for different materials forming the soils in the Srinagar city were
calculated and are presented in Table 5.5.
The shear wave velocities used for further analysis are:
Clay : 200 m/sec
Sand : 275 m/sec
Gravel (loose): 350 m/sec
Table 5.5 Shear Wave Velocities in Soil Materials
Soil Type SPT 'TV Shear Wave Velocity(m/sec)

(Average value) After Jafari et al, (1997)
Clay 13 195
Sandy soil 20 280
Gravel (loose) 26 3_5_1_
In their classification of different types of soils, the ASCE 7-02 and the ASCE 7-05 has
assigned a shear wave velocity for soft rock/dense soil (where impedance contrast of shear
waves is supposed to occur) in the range 1200 < Vs < 2500 where Vs is in ft/sec. For use in
the present work, an average value of the above limits assumed to be the shear wave
velocity in bedrock. The average comes to 1850 m/sec (564 m/sec). For simplicity a value
of 550m/sec was assumed and it was later confirmed to be a fairly reasonable assumption
which is clearly projected in the comparison between the actual bedrock depth as recorded
and the bedrock depth calculated from H/V vs frequency graphs. The bed rock depths as
estimated using this value are shown in Fig. 5.5. The comparison is presented in Table 5.6
135
Table 5.6 Comparison of Bedrock Depth at Sites
Site Bedrock Depth Recorded Bedrock Depth(m)

(m) calculated for Vs =
550m/sec
Ahmed Nagar 22.00 22.90

r Frestabal Pampore 20.00 21.00
Badamwari 21.50 20.00
N I T Campus 19.50 18.40
Nawab Bazar 21.50 22.30
The soil columns with thickness ofdifferent material layers as obtained after applying the
shear wave velocity at bedrock are produced in Table 5.7 and the soil profiles showing
thickness of various material layers are shown in Fig 5.6 (a to I)
136
34.16
34.14
34.00
74.76 74.78 74.80 74.82 74.84 74.86 74.88 74.90
Longitude
Fig. 5.5 Bedrock depth as estimated using local soil data and the H/V method
137
I
Table 5.7 Properties of Soil at all S ites
Soil Properties Soil Properties
Bed Layer Layer 2 Layer 3 Site(name) Bed Layer Layer Layer 3

Site(name) rock 1 Sand Gravel rock 1 2 Gravel
Depth Clay (m) (loose) Depth Clay Sand (loose)
(m) (m) (m) (m) (m)
(m) (m)
Ahmed Nagar 22.90 15.00 7.90 Malkhah 48.2 16.00 6.20 26.00
Badamwari 20.00 9.00 7.00 4.00 Mehjoor Nagar 54.50 12.60 6.20 35.70
Bagi Mehtab 28.40 14.40 5.00 9.00 Methan 53.00 11.00 9.00 33.00
1 Balgarden 25.25 13.50 5.25 6.50 Munawar Abad 31.00 14.00 6.00 11.00
Barzulla 48.00 12.00 6.00 30.00 Nawab Bazar 22.30 10.2 8.10 4.00
Batamaloo 44.50 11.00 5.00 28.50 Nishat Brein 31.40 12.60 6.80 12.00
Bemina 46.40 12.00 7.00 27.40 NIT Campus 18.40 11.00 7.40 .
Buchhpora 35.00 12.50 7.50 15.00 Nowhatta 21.50 8.50 8.00 5.00
Burzuhama 30.40 12.00 6.40 12.00 Onta Bhawan 27.40 14.40 5.00 8.00
Chhanapora 51.20 16.20 6.00 29.00 Pandrethan 20.70 10.70 6.00 4.00
Chhatabal 49.00 15.00 7.00 27.00 Peer Bagh 52.00 11.50 7.50 33.00
Eidgah 42.80 16.80 5.00 21.00 Rainawari 27.55 10.25 5.30 12.00
Elahi Bagh 23.80 8.80 5.50 9.50 Raj Bagh 52.00 12.00 8.00 32.00
F Pampore 19.90 8.20 6.20 5.50 Rangreth 53.00 13.00 9.00 31.00
Guripora 48.00 15.00 7.00 26.00 Rawalpora 50.00 13.00 7.00 30.00
Habak 27.20 10.00 7.00 10.20 Sanat Nagar 45.80 15.80 7.00 23.00
HassanAbad 28.60 8.60 4.00 16.00 Shalimar 35.40 11.40 7.50 16.5
HyderporaG 57.00 17.00 6.00 34.00 Shalteng 39.60 15.60 9.00 15.00
HyderporaM 48.50 16.00 8.00 24.50 Shivpora 40.50 12.00 6.50 22.00
Jawahar Nagar 36.00 10.30 5.60 20.10 Sonwar 26.70 12.70 7.00 7.00
Kani Pora 40.00 11.20 7.60 21.20 Soura 21.30 9.30 7.00 5.00
Kralpora 41.50 9.50 6.00 26.00 T Kralpora 48.00 13.50 8.50 26.00
Kulipora Khanyar 22.50 7.50 5.50 9.50 Zakoora 38.40 16.40 9.00 13.00
Lai Bazar 32.30 11.20 7.20 13.90 Zoonimar 21.00 11.50 5.50 4.00
Magarmal Bagh 41.00 15.00 4.50 21.50
138
I
Soil Profiles
Ahmed Baa Brein

Nagar Badamwan Mehtab Batgarden Barzula Batamaloo Be Nishat
Legend:
I—I su»a
Fig. 5.6 (a) Soil Profiles at Sites
Soil Profiles
Buehhpor, Burr*™. Chhanapora Chhatabal E.dgah EIAiBagh FPampore Ounpora

— (
•-—-
— It
— »
•"£££
*k4
s£e£
Legend:
S3 Clw i—i (4W
Figure 5.6 (b) Soil Profiles at Sites
139
Soil Profiles
Jawahar Kulipora
Habak HassanAbad HyderpcraO HyderporaM Nagar Kant Pora Kralpora Khanyar
>
Legend :
Figure 5.6 (c) Soil Profiles at Sites

Soil Profiles
Magarmal Mehjoor Nawab NIT
Lai Bazar Bagh Malkhah Nagar Methan MunawarAbad Bazar Campus
Legend
tv r—] s«a (52 *#l
Figure 5.6 (d) Soil Profiles at Sites
140
Soil Profiles
Nowhatta OntaBhawan Pandrethan PeerBagh Rainawan RajBagh Rangreth Rawalpora
Legend:
r—i Smd P33 Ok«v«l
Figure 5.6 (e) Soil Profiles at Sites
Soil Profiles
Sonwar Soura Zakoora Zoonimar

Sanat Nagar Shalinar Shatteng Shivpora TKralpora
o
Legend
t=3 s»«
Figure 5.6(f) Soil Profiles at Sites
141
Chapter 6
Microzonation of Srinagar City
6.1 Introduction
Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), the northern most state in India, lies in Himalayas which is one
of the seismically most active belts of the world. The city of Srinagar being the capital of
J&K is the center of many developmental activities in the area. Exposure and vulnerability
to the effects of earthquakes in the city are not known sufficiently and the vulnerability is
increasing as growth of the urban center is very rapid and most of the times unplanned. The
need of seismic microzonation in Srinagar city, as given in Chapter 1 and 2 cannot be
overemphasized. The present chapter consists of seismic microzonation being carried out
for Srinagar city based on the seismic hazard estimation of individual seismogenic sources
(Chapter 3), strong ground motion assessment at bed rock (Chapter 4), site characterization
of Srinagar city (Chapter 5) and inclusion of local site effects to estimate the ground motion
at surface for seismic microzonation in the present chapter.
6.2 Estimation of Strong Ground Motion at Surface
To obtain the ground motion at the surface, the ground response is used considering the
local site conditions. The ground response problem is generally solved using frequency
domain approach where the input motion is represented as the sum of a series of sine waves
of different amplitudes, frequencies, and phase angles. A relatively simple solution for the
response of the soil profile to sine waves of different frequencies (in the form of a transfer
function) is used to obtain the response of the soil deposit to each of the input sine waves.
The overall response is obtained by summing the individual responses to each of the input
142
sine waves. The basic mathematics of the process for a problem involving a single soil
layer, illustrating how that problem can be solved using a widely available mathematical
programming language, and then the extension of the approach to layered systems has been
described in the following sections.
6.2.1 Single Soil Layer
The general approach of the single layer case is described by Kramer (1996). To illustrate
the basic approach, consider a uniform soil layer lying on an elastic layer of rock that
extends to infinite depth, as illustrated in Fig. 6.1. If the subscripts s and r refer to soil and
rock, respectively, the horizontal displacements due to vertically propagating harmonic s-
waves in each material can be written as:
Fig. 6.1 Single soil layer overa half space
r(0.,)=GM0.<)=G.;^M =0 dZ,
(6.1)
i(at+k'sZs) +Bse
us(Zs,t)=Ase'^ksZs) , n i{o>i-k"sZs) (6.2)
(a)t+k'sZr) +Bre
ur{Zr,t)=Are'[0"+ksZ'> , r> i{a>t-k'sZr) (6.3)
143
where co is the circular frequency ofthe harmonic wave and k* is the complex wave
number. No shear stress can exist at the ground surface (Zs = 0), so
Gliks{Ase'k^-Bse->k^)e'«' =G'siks{As ~Bs)eiM =0 (6.4)

where G* =G(\ +2i%) is the complex shear modulus of the soil. Substituting Equation
(6.1) into Equation (6.3) and differentiating gives,
us(Zs=H) =ur(Zr=0) (65)

which is satisfied when As = Bs . Compatibility ofdisplacements and continuity ofstresses
at the soil/rock boundary require
Ts(Zs=H) =zr(Zr=0) (6.6)

Substituting Equations (6.1) and (6.2) into Equation (6.5)
As(e^+e-^)=Ar+Br (6.7)
From Equation (6.6) and the definition of shear stress (r = G*s du/dz)
AsiG;sk;(e'k;H -e-'k^)=iGX{Ar-Br)
OR
G*sk
Âs(e'k^-e~^)=Ar-Br (6.8)
The ratio
G*k*
= <z2 (6.9)
where a] is known as the complex impedance ratio. Solving Equations (6.7) and (6.8)
simultaneously gives
Ar =l4[(i+a;y^ +(!-«;y**"] (6.io)
144
Br =-As
2 . (i-«:V^+(i+«:>-^] (6-n)
If a vertically propagating shear wave of amplitude, A, traveled upward through the rock
and the soil was not present, the free surface effect at the rock outcrop would produce a
bedrock outcropping motion of amplitude 2A. If the soil was present, the free surface
motion amplitude would be
2A AA (6.12)
S'(\+a:]e'^+(\-a:y^
The transfer function, F(a>), defined as the ratio of the soil surface amplitude to the rock
outcrop amplitude, is given by
F(m\ ? (613)
Obviously, the transfer function is acomplex function. It can be rewritten using Euler's Law
as
FU = cosklH + ia*,
l— sinksH
— (6-14)
6.2.2 Solution of Single Layer Problem
Because the transfer function is defined as the ratio ofthe soil surface amplitude to the rock
outcrop amplitude, the soil surface amplitude can be obtained as the product of the rock
outcrop amplitude and the transfer function. Therefore, the response of the soil layer to a
periodic input motion can be obtained by the following steps:
1. Express the input (rock outcrop) motion in the frequency domain as aFourier series
(as the sum of aseries of sine waves of different amplitudes, frequencies, and phase
angles). For an earthquake motion, this Fourier series will have both real and
imaginary parts.
145
2. Define the transfer function (Equation 6.14). The transfer function will have both
real and imaginary parts.
3. Compute the Fourier series of the output (ground surface) motion as the product of
the Fourier series of the input (bedrock) motion and the transfer function. This
Fourier series will also have both real and imaginary parts.
4. Express the output motion in the time domain by means of an inverse Fourier
transform.
6.2.3 Multiple Soil Layers
The basic approach described above is also used to analyze layered soil deposits the only
difference is that the transfer function is different for a layered soil deposit. The transfer
function for a layered soil deposit must account for the transmission and reflection of waves
at boundaries between adjacent layers, much as those factors were accounted for at the
soil/rock boundary in the previous section.
Consider the soil deposit shown in Fig. 6.2. Within a given layer, say layer j, the horizontal
displacements will be given by
uXzjÂ/'-'+Bje-^y (6.15)
At the boundary between layery" and layer y' + l, compatibility of displacements requires
that
AJ+]+BJ+]=A/k?J +Bje"k?J (6.16)
By+1=i^.(l-a;y^+Is,(l+«;y^ (6.17)
146
X Gl x1 fj
X G7 s2 f2
• h a x f i
^0 i J
•v. G0-l *j+i rJ+1
:K Jn GM XM fN
1 N+1 GN+1XN+irN+1
Fig. 6.2 Multiple soil layers over half space
Continuity of shear stresses requires that
Ax-Bll=-^-(Ale^-BJe-^) (6.18)
tJ;+i/C7+i
Note that Equations (6.16) and (6.17) are analogous to Equations (6.7) and (6.8),
respectively. Defining a) as the complex impedance ratio at the boundary between layers;
and j +1, the wave amplitudes for layer j +1 can be obtained from the amplitudes of layer
;' by solving Equations (6.16) and (6.17).
^=I^.(i+«;>^+i5,(i-a;>-^ (6.19)
B'Ak-a^+\Bjâ*yk>>
2 JX 2
(6.20)
At the ground surface (Z, =0), the requirement that the shear stress must be zero means
that Ax =B,. Applying Equations (6.18 and 6.19) recursively for ;' =1,2,3, ,N, the
coefficients
A+1 and Bj+] can be related to Aj and B} by
147
AJ+x=aJ+Xco)A, (62i)
5,+. =*,+i (*>)£, (6.22)

where the functions fly+1(fi>) and 6y+,(fl)) represent the effects of the wave interactions that
take place at all ofthe layer interfaces above layer j +1. Then, a transfer function relating
the motions at the tops ofany two layers, say layers i and;', can be expressed as
wU\- aX0))+bl{C0)
tiA<°)- aJW)
( \—r-< \ (6.23)
+bJ{o}) y '
This transfer function can become quite complicated, but it is used in exactly the same way
as the much simpler transfer function developed for the single layer case.
6.1.4 Equivalent Linear Analysis
The nonlinear and inelastic behavior ofsoil is well established in geotechnical engineering.
The nonlinearity of soil stress-strain behavior means that the shear modulus of the soil is
constantly changing. The inelasticity means that the soil unloads along a different path than
its loading path, thereby dissipating energy at the points of contact between particles.
Rigorous analysis of the mechanical response of soils to any type of loading, dynamic or
otherwise, would require that the stress-strain behavior of each element of soil be tracked
directly in the time domain. The method of analysis used in SHAKE (and ProShake) cannot
allow for nonlinear stress-strain behavior because its representation of the input motion by a
Fourier series and use of transfer functions for solution of the wave equation rely on the
principle of superposition - which is only valid for linear systems.
148
sec
Fig. 6.3 Average shear modulus over an entire cycle of loading
To approximate the actual nonlinear, inelastic response of soil, an equivalent linear

approach can be utilized. In the equivalent linear approach, linear analyses are performed
with soil properties that are iteratively adjusted to be consistent with an effective level of
shear strain induced in the soil. In the equivalent linear approach, the shear modulus is taken
as the secant shear modulus which, as shown in Fig. 6.3, approximates an "average" shear
modulus over an entire cycle ofloading. As the level of shear strain increases, the secant
shear modulus decreases. The relationship between secant shear modulus and shear strain
amplitude can be characterized by means of amodulus reduction curve. The nature of this
curve, which has an ordinate of modulus ratio (G/Gmm ) and an abscissa of log (shear
strain), has been well established for many soils. ProShake has a library of modulus
reduction relationships that can be selected in the Input Manager. The solution algorithm
used in SHAKE (and ProShake) assumes viscous soil damping which it represents using a
complex shear modulus. Viscous damping implies behavior that would be characterized by ^
elliptical stress-strain loops. Because actual stress-strain loops are seldom elliptical, an
equivalent damping ratio is used - the equivalent damping ratio is equal to the damping
ratio that would be computed based on the area within the hysteresis loop, the secant shear
149
modulus, and the maximum shear strain. The relationship between this equivalent damping
ratio and shear strain is characterized by means of a damping curve. The nature of this
curve, which has an ordinate of damping ratio and an abscissa of log (shear strain), has been
well established for many soils. ProShake has a library of damping curves that can be
selected in the Input Manager.
In an equivalent linear analysis, the first iteration is performed using shear modulus and
damping ratios that correspond to some initially estimated level of shear strain. In
ProShake, the first iteration is based on an assumed shear strain of 0.001%. Following the
first iteration, the effective shear strain, defined as
Yeff =RyYmm (6.24)

where Ry is a strain reduction factor often taken as
M-\
Rr ~ly- (6.25)
is computed. The shear modulus and damping ratio corresponding to yeff is then used for
the next iteration. This process is repeated until the computed effective strain does not
change much from one iteration to the next. At this point, the equivalent linear process is
said to have converged.
While the equivalent linear approach allows the most important effects of nonlinear,
inelastic soil behavior to be approximated, it must be emphasized that it remains a linear
method of analysis. The strain-compatible shear modulus and damping ratio remain
constant throughout the duration of an earthquake - when the strains induced in the soil are
small and when they are large. Permanent strains cannot be computed and pore water
pressures cannot be computed. However, the equivalent linear approach has been shown to
provide reasonable estimates of soil response under many conditions of practical

importance.
150
The strong ground motion parameters at all the sites in Srinagar city were computed using a
one-dimensional site response approach by solving the wave equation in the frequency
domain. The equivalent linear approach has been used to model soil non linearity. The
shear modulus is reduced according to amodulus reduction curve for each full run through
the time history until the calculated strain equals the assumed strain at the start of the run.
Modulus reduction curves depend on plasticity for cohesive soils and on density for
cohesion less soils. The background on selection of modulus reduction curves and damping
curves is given by Seed et al (1986) and Vucetic and Dobry (1991).
6.3 Soil Models
Vucetic and Dobry (1991), building on the work of Kokoshu (1980) in an investigation
motivated by the performance of Mexico City clay in the 1985 Michoacan earthquake,
showed clearly how modulus and damping behavior are influenced by soil plasticity.
Vucetic and Dobry (1991) developed families of modulus reduction and damping curves as
functions of plasticity index.
Sun, Golesorkhi, and Seed (1988) developed a series of modulus reduction and damping
curves for different ranges of Plasticity Index. Separate curves for 5</7<10,
10 <PI <20, 20 <PI <40, 40 <PI <80, and PI >80 were developed.
Modulus reduction and damping characteristics, particularly for low-plasticity soils, are also
influenced by effective confining pressure. Ishibashi and Zhang (1993) proposed
expressions for shear modulus and damping ratio that accounted for plasticity index and
effective confining pressure. In calculating the effective confining pressure an at-rest earth
pressure coefficient (K0) of 0.5 is assumed. It should be noted that the actual Ishibashi and
Zhang (1993) equations predict G/Gmm values slightly greater than 1over arange of low
strains. ProShake sets G/Gmm =1.0 for these values.
151
Seed and Idriss (1970) developed the first widely used modulus reduction and damping
curves for sand. Their curves showed a range of modulus reduction behavior. Seed at al.
(1970) developed modulus reduction and damping curves for gravel. These curves are based
on the average behavior of 12-inch diameter cyclic triaxial tests on four different gravels.
Modulus reduction and damping curves for rock were included in sample data files for the
original SHAKE program (Schnabel et al., 1970).
ProShake allows to specify a linear elastic or linear viscoelastic material. When selected the
programe will use the maximum shear modulus and the damping ratio has to be given. The
transfer function for an undamped linear elastic layer will have singularities at the natural
frequencies ofthe layers; these can lead to numerical problems.
6.4 Generation of Spectrum Compatible Time History
Based on the seismic hazard parameters and the geometry of the seismogenic sources and
using appropriate attenuation relationships the spectral accelerations were computed for the
sites as given in Chapter IV. The envelop ofthe response spectra for various return periods
are given in Fig. 4.14 and 4.15. To include the soil characteristics and propagation of
motion from the bed rock to the surface ProSHAKE is used which requires the input in the
form of time history. So spectrum compatible time histories have to be generated. The
synthetic time histories for these response spectrums were generated where it is assumed
that target response spectra for the area and duration of time history are known (Kumar
2002). The method is iterative and the first iteration begins with the approximation that the
target velocity response spectrum is equal to Fourier magnitude spectrum of the history.
Frequency domain description (real and imaginary parts) of signal corresponding to Fourier
magnitude spectrum is obtained using random phase at each bin frequency. Signal is band
passed in the frequency range of 0.1 Hz to 25 Hz and then notch filtered at frequency where
152
there is abrupt change in the target spectra. The two operations are performed in the
frequency domain. Inverse DFT of this frequency domain description of band passed and
notch filtered signal is then performed to get the stationary time domain signal. This
stationary signal is made to look like an earthquake excitation by multiplying it by the
envelope function given by Boore (1983). Response spectrum of this signal is then
computed at each bin frequency interval, which is then compared with the target spectra at
each bin frequency. Correction factors in the frequency range 0.1 Hz to 25 Hz thus obtained
are multiplied to the real and imaginary parts of previously used frequency domain
description of signal for the next iteration. This implies that the random phase at different
bin frequencies as was picked up during the first iteration, remains same for all subsequent
iterations. Convergence of iteration is assumed to be over when the spectral velocities
between 0.1 Hz and 25 Hz calculated at bin frequencies are within ± 10% ofcorresponding
target spectral velocities.
6.4.1 Band Pass and Notch Filter
Very low frequencies are removed from the synthetic accelerogram so that the velocity and
displacement histories of the synthetic acceleration history are realistic. Also frequencies
more than 25 Hz are found to have negligible contribution in earthquake accelerograms.
Notch filtering is essential as it has been found that spectra of the computed time history
will always have undesired spikes at the frequency where the target spectra has sharp edge.
6.4.2 Envelop Function
Inverse discrete Fourier transformation (IDFT) of any frequency domain description

provides astationary time domain signal whereas earthquake time histories are essentially
non-stationary. Also such asignal will not have rise and decay as in any earthquake signal.
153
However, the non-stationary process by multiplying the stationary process is obtained by an
envelop function i.e.
Z{t)=E{t)x{t) (6.25)
where x^) is stationary accelerogram obtained through IDFT, E(t) is the envelop function
and Z(t) is the required non-stationary accelerogram. The choice of the envelop function
E(t) is made to agree with different types of recorded accelerograms. Kumar used the
envelop function as suggested by Boore (1983) which is
E{t) =atbec,H(t) (6.26)
where H(t) is heavy side function and other parameters are given as
b= ~fln?7 x (6.27)
\ +s(\ns-\)
( b ^ (6.28)
c -
where Tw is total duration of generated time history
( i \b
a = (6.29)
\eT»J
In the above formulation, peak of envelop occurs at some fraction e of specified duration Tw
and the amplitude at time Tv is reduced to a fraction tj of the maximum amplitude. Kumar
has taken s and rj as 0.2 and 0.05 respectively.
The program has a graphic interface, which displays the matching between target and
computed spectra after each iteration. It also gives graphic display of the computed
spectrum compatible time history. One of the time history of duration of 20 seconds
simulated for 5% damping response spectra of IS1893: 2002 (Type III Soil) as target spectra
is given in Fig. 6.4. This time history has been simulated at 100 SPS. The target and
achieved response spectra curves are given in Fig. 6.5.
154
3
-Target
2.5 PW£aJ»*A Computed

<5
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|
£ 1.5
TO
1 H
1/5
0.5-
0.01 0.1 1 10
Time (see)
Time Period (Sec.)
Fig.6.4:Spectrum Compatible Time Fig. 6.5: Matching of Computed and

History for IS1893: 2002 Spectrum IS 1893: 2002 Spectra
6.5 Estimation of Strong Ground Motion at Surface in Srinagar City
The strong ground motion at the surface has been estimated using strong ground motion at
the bed rock level (as given in chapter 4), the soil conditions (as given in chapter 5) and the
methodology (as given in sections 6.2 to 6.4). Since the ground motion is required as an
input to estimate the ground motion at various layers and the surface, the time history
compatible with the response spectra for 475 year return period was computed as shown in
Fig. 6.6. The duration of the time history is estimated using the deaggregation curve given
in Fig. 6.7 where a magnitude 7.0 event is taken at a distance ofabout 30 km. This time
history was then used as input to ProSHAKE along with other soil parameters (as given in
Table 6.1) for computing the peak ground acceleration at each of the layers of the soil
structures.
Table 6.1 The Values of Different Parameters used in Proshake for all the Sites
Parameter Unit Weights of Materials (kN/nr*) Shear Wave Velocity at

Clay Sand Gravel Rock Bedrock (m/sec)
15 18 20 21 550
Value
155
The results of the ID analysis for bringing the strong ground motion time history to the
surface using the soil information as described in Chapter 5 are summarized in Table 6.2 for
peak ground accelerations, spectral acceleration at 0.3 sec and 1 sec, predominant frequency
and the mean frequency.
Time History
% 200
~ 100
0 10 20 30
Time (seconds)
Fig. 6.6 Spectrum compatible time history for Srinagar city for 475 year return period
Magnitude lc:::a«::::::sl w_
8.49
7.97
7.46
6.94
6.43
5.91
5.40
4.89
4.37
3.86
3.34
283
2.31
25 75 125 175 225 275 325 375 425 475
Distance (Km)
Fig. 6.7 Deaggregation table for the Srinagar area for PGA estimated for 475 year return
period
156
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The strong ground motion has been modified for its estimation at the surface as described in M
this section and the results are shown in various figures. The peak ground acceleration on the
surface for return period of 225 years to 2500 years is shown in Fig. 6.8 to 6.11. The
comparison of these figures with the figures containing peak ground acceleration for these
return periods (Fig. 4.10 to 4.13) reveals the dominating effects of the local site conditions over
>
the patterns of ground motion at the bed rock level. The PGA patterns shows the elongation of
the contours in NE-SW direction with difference of about 3 gals (147 gals in the NW direction
to 150 gals in the SE direction of Srinagar city) at bed rock level for 225 years return period.
While the PGA at surface as given in Fig. 6.8 shows the pattern which is completely governed
by the soil conditions in the Srinagar city with PGA varying from 120 gals to 180 gals. Similar
differences can be seen by comparing the Fig. 4.11, 4.12 and 4.13 with their respective values ^
at the surface as given in Fig. 6.9, 6.10 and 6.11. It may be noted that the changes in patterns
due to the return periods (as seen by comparing the Fig. 4.10 to 4.13) has been overshadowed
by the effects ofthe soil conditions and the patterns are now following the soil conditions rather
than the return period. The variation in PGA values for return periods 225, 475, 1000 and 2500
years is 120 to 180 gals, 170 to 260 gals, 260 to 350 gals and 360 to 520 gals, respectively.
4
164
E 34.08
7476 74.78 74.80 74.82 74.84 74.86 74 88 74 90 74.76 74.76 74.80 74.82 74.84 74.86 74.88 74.90
Longrtude Longrtude
Fig. 6.8 PGA (in gals) at the surface for 225 Fig. 6.9 PGA (in gals) at the surface for 475
years in Srinagar city years in Srinagar city
74.76 74.78 74.80 74.82 74.84 74 86 74.88 74.90 74.76 74.78 74.80 74.82 74.84 74.86 74 88 74.90
Longitude Longitude
Fig. 6.10 PGA (in gals) at the surface for Fig. 6.11 PGA (in gals) at the surface for
1000 years in Srinagar city 2500 years in Srinagar city
165
6.6 Seismic Microzonation of Srinagar City
Seismic microzonation, wherein an area is subdivided into smaller zones, depending upon site-
specific seismic response and an effective method for mitigation of the natural disaster has been
carried out for Srinagar city. Seismic microzonation comprises of different aspects like the
seismic hazard assessment, site characterization, local site effects and microzoning the strong
1
ground motion parameters etc. Microzonation of a region is defined as subdivisions of the
region into smaller regions or microzones such that any characteristic of interest may be
considered to be reasonably uniform over the microzone. When such factors are related to
seismic activity, the process may be called Seismic Microzonation. The local site effects in the
past earthquakes and the variations in estimated PGA at bed rock level and at surface for
Srinagar city have demonstrated the importance of their inclusion in seismic microzonation.
In the present case, the strong ground motion has been estimated at the surface and seismic
microzones are proposed to recommended based on the estimated strong ground motion at the
surface in Srinagar city. The main criteria of seismic microzonation should be the division of
the city based on significant differences in the estimated strong ground motion. The variations
should not be so large that there are significant change of scales in damage patterns and it
should not be so small that the two microzones experience the same level of damage scenario in
case of future earthquake.
166
34.16
34.00
74.76 74.78 74.80 74.82 74.84 74.86 74.88 74.90
Longitude
PGA (gals) for various return periods

Microzones
225 years 475 years 1000 years 2500 years
120 170 250 370
150 210 300 430
180 250 350 500
Fig. 6.12 Seismic microzones for PGA (in gals) for Srinagar city for various return
periods. The sites taken for the site characterization are also shown in the
figure.
167
The patterns as shown in Fig. 6.8 to 6.11 reveals the dominance of the effect of local site
conditions on the strong ground motion estimated at the surface. Based on the patterns for
PGA, Srinagar city has been divided into three seismic microzones. The boundaries of the
seismic microzones drawn for the Srinagar city are based on the average of the four maps for
the different return periods. The three zones are shown in Fig. 6.12 along with the PGA values
to be considered for different return periods.
The general building types in Srinagar city are single to three storied buildings. To make the
seismic microzonation maps user friendly additional information is given for the time periods
as 1 sec and 0.3 sec which is applicable to single and three storied buildings, respectively. The
strong ground motion was estimated in terms of response spectrum. The response at 0.3 sec and
1 sec has been provided in Table 6.2. The contours were drawn for the estimated values for of
spectral acceleration at 0.3 sec and 1 sec for 475 years return period which is equivalent to 10%
exceedance value in 50 years. These contours have to be averaged to recommend the seismic
microzonation map for these periods. Based on the patterns Srinagar city has been divided into
two and three microzones for spectral accelerations at time period 0.3 sec and 1 sec
respectively. These seismic microzonation maps are useful for the areas to be demarcated for
the construction of single or three storied buildings. If the seismic design factors as per the
recommended seismic coefficient based on the spectral acceleration in the area is taken into
account then the three storied buildings should be preferred in the central part of Srinagar and
should be avoided in the NW and SE part of the city (see Fig. 6.15). Similarly, the strip in the
central part of the city trending NW-SE should be preferred for the single storied buildings. .
168
74.76 74.78 74.80 74.82 74.84 74.86 74.88 74,90
Longitude
Fig. 6.13 Spectral acceleration at 0.3 sec for 475 year return period in Srinagar city
34.08
74.88 74.90
Longrtude
Fig. 6.14 Spectral acceleration at 1 sec for 475 year return period in Srinagar city
169
Longrtude
Fig. 6.15 Seismic microzonation for spectral acceleration with 0.3 sec time period for 475
years return period in Srinagar city
34.16
34.14
34.12
34.10
34.04
74.76 7478 74 80 74.82 74.84 74.86 74 88 74.90
Longitude
Fig. 6.16 Seismic microzonation for spectral acceleration with 1.0 sec time period for 475
years return period in Srinagar city
170
6.7 Validation of Results
The strong motion records are the only way to validate the results. No strong motion record for
the past earthquakes is available for Srinagar city. However, to validate the results the past
earthquake data in form of isoseismal maps have been used. The intensity recorded at a point
gives the idea about the range of accelerations experienced during the past earthquakes. The
i
Isoseismal map taken from seismotectonic Atlas of India (Geological Survey of India 2000)
represents intensities of Four Earthquake events around Srinagar city
(i) Kashmir Earthquake of 30.05.1885, Mag. 7.0
(ii) Northwest Himalayan earthquake of 02.02.1929 ,Mag. 7.1
(iii) Hindukush earthquake of 14.05.1937 , Mag. 7.2 and
(iv) Pamir Earthquake of 21.11.1939 , Mag. 6.9
The isoseismal maps for these earthquakes are shown in Fig. 6.17. These events have caused
intensities of the order of VII to VIII around Srinagar. Moreover the Kashmir Earthquake of
08.10.2005, Mag. 7.6 is also reported to have caused intensity VII around Srinagar.
The PGA values obtained for intensities VII and VIII using the correlation given by Trifunac
and Brady (1975)
Loga = IMM +0.014

where a is the average horizontal component of peak ground acceleration and IMM is the
local modified Mercalli site intensity. The accelerations estimated for VII and VIII intensity are
0.130g and 0.259g respectively. In the seismic hazard estimations the average return period for
magnitude 7.0 is around 400 years. The PGA values obtained for the sites in Srinagar, for
earthquakes for a return period 475 years, vary between 0.166g and 0.245g which is matching
the experienced intensity in Srinagar city.
171
Isoseismal Map
:2we nwt 74WE -?-0'0"E 7trt>'0"E 7WS 78'0'0-ti
_J I _l I I _l I
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Kilometers
Legend 0 45 90
-*—*. Thrust Fault
Pamir EQ Kashmir EQ
Hindukush EQ Himalayan EQ
Fig. 6.17 Isoseismal map of important earthquakes around Srinagar
172
Chapter 7
Conclusions
7.1 General
The study presents various techniques required for carrying out seismic microzonation of a
mega city. In such study the details depend upon the available sources of information and
the resources for new investigation. Although the interest for microzonation of urban areas
is highest yet the options for investigations are very limited. The dissertation sets to
accomplish seismic microzonation in terms of spectral amplifications with methods that can
conveniently be employed in urban areas and are cost effective. The ambient vibration
signals are strong and at the same time there are limitations in using the other methods
because of restrictions by constructions and traffic on streets. The application of

probabilistic methods for seismic hazard, ambient vibration methods for site
characterization and estimation of strong ground motion at surface through ID response

techniques yielded seismic microzonation maps for Srinagar city. The above methodologies
were found to be more effective and applicable in urban areas than the conventional seismic
microzonation methods and have been exploited as far as possible. Although the methods
were known in advance to be applicable and to yield results, they are still under
development. So part of the present work is dedicated to further develop and test these
methods.
The earthquake hazard assessment is facilitated by development and test of the techniques
for measurement of parameters that affect the local site conditions. The methods applied in
this thesis are based on microtremor studies.
173
The present study reviewed the major limitations of the microzonation techniques,
determined their causes, and offered optimum solutions. Traditional procedures for seismic
microzonation suffer from several limitations. The limitations have been observed in
available data especially earthquake catalogues, methodologies for seismic hazard
assessment, geotechnical data collection and finally the methodologies for carrying out
microzonation. The PGA values obtained for Srinagar city were compared and found to be
in total agreement with those obtained from isoseismal maps for major past earthquake
events in the region.
7.2.1 Treatment of Seismicity Data
A complete earthquake catalogue with a uniform magnitude scale is a prerequisite for a
reliable seismic hazard parameterization. Here the limitations stem from incompleteness
and heterogeneity of seismicity data which is compiled from various sources. The
completeness has been checked using statistical methods and its effects on hazard
parameters have been demonstrated. The data homogenization has been done using the
recommended conversion formulae. A new catalogue which is complete and homogeneous
has been generated and used for the seismic hazard estimation.
7.2.2 Seismic Hazard Estimation
Various methods for seismic hazard estimations have been reviewed and the limitations
have been discussed. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology
adopted in the present work uses independent seismogenic sources (based on seismotectonic
modeling of the area thus recognizing the physical sources present), doubly truncated
Gutenberg Richter relationship and Poissonian distribution of earthquake occurrence. The
174
seismic hazard estimated matches with the general earthquake occurrence in the area. The
attenuation relationship has been selected based on the prevalent seismotectonics and its
closeness to the recorded strong motion data in the Himalayan region. The estimation of
spectral accelerations at the bed rock level in Srinagar city has been carried out using the
PSHA. At bedrock the horizontal component of ground acceleration is almost uniform in
the entire city with a variation of a little over 5%. Envelops of the response spectra obtained
from 50 sites, which were later used for site characterization, have been estimated for four
return periods i.e., 225, 475, 1000 and 2500 years.
7.2.3 Site Characterization
Quantification of amplification of ground motion in the study area and determination of
natural resonance frequency was the main objective of the site response study. The most
important information for the ground response analysis is a subsurface model that represents
the variation in thickness of the soil layers along with its geotechnical properties. The
methods for geotechnical investigations have been reviewed in detail. Non destructive
method using ambient noise has been implemented for the site investigations which can be
conveniently employed in urban areas and is financially inexpensive and faster than the
traditional methods. A technique to collate borehole data with the results of ambient
vibrations has been used to characterize the site for geotechnical parameters.
The profile of bedrock based on the analysis of microtremors reveals undulating nature with
several humps and depressions varying from 18 to 57 m. In the old part of the city (east of
River Jhelum) the bedrock ranges between 20 and 30 m except at a few sites where it goes
up to 40 m. In the west of Jhelum the bedrock is deeper with depths ranging from 35 to 50
m except at a couple of sites where it is shallower (around 25 m). While the bedrock is
deeper in south of the city with depths going up to 57 m, in the north the bedrock depth
175
varies between 18 to 38 m. The two sites chosen in south east of the city have the bedrocks
located around 20 m deep. The layered structure of the soil columns were determined by
collating the data from bore holes to estimate the site response using ID analysis. The
relatively denser selection of the test sites in the city allowed interpolation to get the picture
of the strong ground motion in the city area for its further use in the seismic microzonation.
7.2.4 Seismic Microzonation of Srinagar city

>
/
The seismic microzonation of Srinagar city has been carried out using the spectral
accelerations obtained at the surface. While at 30 out of the 49 sites studied in the city,
deamplification of motion occurred during the propagation of waves from bedrock to
surface with surface PGA values ranging between 0.166 g and 0.196g for a return period of
475 years, the strong motion got amplified at the remaining 19 sites and the maximum value
of surface PGA was estimated to be 0.245g. In general, it was observed that at sites with
bedrock depth less than 30 m the ground acceleration values got amplified with maximum
amplification factor being 1.2319. At sites where the bedrock was deeper than 30 m,
deamplification occurred. It may be concluded that the southern part of the city, where
surface PGA values range between 0.166g and 0.195g, is relatively seismically safer for
future development than the rest of the city. Three seismic microzones have been proposed
for Srinagar city with PGA varying as 120, 150 and 180 gals, 170, 210, 250 gals, 250, 300
and 350 gals and 370, 430 and 500 gals for return periods of 225, 475, 1000 and 2500 years,
respectively. The patterns of seismic microzones reveal the dominance of the effect of local
site conditions on the strong ground motion estimated at the surface.
In addition to the seismic microzonation being proposed for the traditional peak ground
acceleration, it has also been carried out for the spectral periods which may influence the
land use planning in case of buildings with different heights. The general structures in
176
Srinagar city are two and three storeyed buildings. Srinagar city has been divided into two
seismic microzones based on spectral acceleration with 0.3 sec time period for 475 years
return period which pertains to the recommendations for structures of relatively smaller
heights and belongs to the more general types of the buildings found in the city. Similarly,
the city has been divided into three seismic microzones based on spectral acceleration with
1.0 sec time period for 475 years return period which pertains to the recommendations for
relatively taller structures. The results are presented in section 6.6.

<
7.3 Recommendations for Further Work
Any earthquake hazard computation is an attempt to quantify a prediction probability for
the shaking. The multidisciplinary seismic microzonation work involves various kinds of
methodologies and approaches with many uncertainties and limitations. Since the
approaches are still in development phase the further work may explore more techniques
involved in such work.
The effects of local site conditions have already been proved to be dominating in seismic
microzonation. In the present work, studies at only 50 odd sites in the city were carried out.
The approach of multiple and densely spaced measurements under such circumstances
± allows a more reliable and efficient determination of fundamental frequencies and bedrock
depth. The microtremor observations need to be made at about 200-250 sites to obtain a
precise profile of the concerned parameters. Also multiple readings should be taken at all
sites. Detailed studies need to be undertaken for soil investigation at all the sites. This will
help in determining the local site effects more accurately for assessment of amplification of
ground motion. Further the detailed soil investigation will help in assessment of liquefaction
potential and this parameter can be added to the microzonation.
177
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2008_Seismic microzonation of mega cities

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SEISMIC MICROZONATION OF MEGA CITIES

JAVED AHMED NAQASH

DEPARTMENT OF EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING

INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY ROORKEE, ROORKEE, 2008

Date: //. ^ . 2co8

Supervisors External Examiner

development in sedimentary valleys has increased their vulnerability to earthquakes, due to

incorporating the local site effects.

Seismic microzonation is a process that involves incorporation of geologic, seismologic and

geotechnical concerns into economically, sociologically and politically justifiable and

earthquake characteristics on the ground surface.

and its effects.

technique for seismic microzonation of a mega city. Seismic microzonation is a

undertaken for estimation of seismic hazard and determination of local amplification of

Seismic Zone V in the seismic zonation map of IS-1893.

microzonation suffer from several limitations especially in earthquake catalogues,

been discussed. The methodologies adopted for seismic microzonation of Wellington

(Colombia), Greater Bangkok (Thailand), Armenia (Colombia), Basel (Switzerland),

used for the seismic hazard estimation.

relationship and Poissonian distribution of earthquake occurrence. The estimated seismic

Quantification of amplification of ground motion in the study area and determination of

been used to characterize the site for geotechnical parameters.

in the seismic microzonation.

deamplification of motion occurred during the propagation of waves from bedrock to

period which pertains to the recommendations for relatively taller structures.

the Department of Earthquake Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee,

feel privileged to have worked under their supervision.

I take this opportunity to express my gratitude and indebtedness to fellow researchers,

(Javed Ahmed Naqash)

List ofFigures xiii

List of Tables xix

Chapter 1: Introduction 1-7

1.2 Seismic Microzonation 3

1.4 Scope of the Thesis 5

1.5 Thesis Outline 6

Chapter 2: Literature Review 8-52

2.2 Seismic Microzonation 9

> 2.2.1 Amplification of Ground Motion 11

2.3 Seismic Zonation at Bedrock Level 12

2.3.1 Seismic Hazard Estimation 12

2.4 Local Site Effects 27

2.4.1 Methods of Estimating Local Site Effects 28

Geology and Intensity 28

Geology and Amplification 29

Geotechnical Parameter and Amplification 31

2.4.1.3 Experimental Methods 34

Weak Motion Data 36

Reference Site Technique 37

Non Reference Site Technique 38

2.4.1.4 Strong Motion Data 39

2.5 Site Characterization 39

2.5.1 Geotechnical Investigation 39

2.5.2 Geophysical Investigation 40

2.6 Seismic Microzonation of Mega Cities 47

Chapter 3: Seismic Hazard Estimation 53-96

3.2 Global Geological Setting 53

3.3 Regional Geological and Tectonic Setup 56

3.5 Treatment of Seismicity Data 68

3.5.1 Homogenization of Catalogue 70

3.5.2 Completeness of Data 71