Session 7

Chapter Five
Basic Probability Concepts
 Chapter Goals
After completing this chapter, you should be able to:

• Define basic terms

• Explain basic probability concepts

• Apply counting techniques

• Apply addition and multiplication rules of probability

 Introduction
Random Experiment – a process leading to an uncertain
outcome.
- There are a number of possible outcomes
- The outcome cannot be determined in advance

Deterministic Experiment – has only one possible

result/outcome
- The outcome can be determined in advance with
certainty.
Examples: i) Hydrogen + Oxygen =
A fur

ii) Boiling points of water, organic

compounds, etc.
 Introduction Cont’d

In this course we focus on:

Random Experiment – a process leading to an uncertain
outcome.
- There are a number of possible outcomes
- The outcome cannot be determined in advance

Examples : Flip a Coin Roll a Die Draw a Card

(shuffeled 52 cards)

A fur
 Introduction Cont’d

Outcome - is the result of a single trial of an

experiment.

Eg. Flip a Coin Roll a Die

A fur
 Introduction Cont’d

In a Random Experiment:
- There are a number of possible outcomes
- The outcome cannot be determined in
advance
So the outcome of the experiment may
change if the experiment is repeated !!
The best we can do is talk about the
probability (likelihood) that a particular
outcome will occur.
 Introduction Cont’d

How can we calculate the probability of a

given event?
Main considerations/steps:
- List all possible outcomes of an experiment;
- The list must be exhaustive: each trial of the random
experiment must result in some outcome on the list
- The listed outcomes must be mutually exclusive: no
two outcomes on the list can both occur on any one
trial of the experiment
Such a list is called a Sample Space
 Introduction Cont’d

Sample Space – the collection of all possible

outcomes of a random experiment
Examples:
Flip a Coin Roll a Die

Sample Space: {H, T} Sample Space: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Flip two coins (twice) Roll two Dice (twice)

Sample Space: {1,1; 1,2; 1,3; 1,4;
Sample Space: {HH, HT, TH, TT}
1,5; 1,6; 2,1; 2,2; … 6,6}
 Introduction Cont’d
Examples: Sample Space
Selecting medals from a container with bronze, silver and gold
medals:
Random Experiment:
1. Select two medals simultaneously:
Sample Space: {BS, BG, GS}
2. Select two medals without replacement
(sequentially; order matters)
Sample Space: {BS, BG, GS, SB, GB, SG}
3. Select two medals with replacement B
S
(repetition and order matters)
Sample Space: G
{BB, GG, SS, BS, BG, GS, SB, GB, SG}
 Introduction Cont’d

Basic Outcome – a possible outcome of a

random experiment
Example
Flip a Coin
Basic outcome could be: Head
Roll two Dice (twice)
Basic outcome could be: 6 and 1
Select two medals simultaneously
Basic outcome could be: BS
 Introduction Cont’d

Event – any subset of basic outcomes from the

sample space
Example:
Flip a coin: Our interest could be: head
appears; the outcome head is an event
Roll a die: Our interest could be: even numbers,
2, 4 and 6 constitute the event “even
numbers”
 Introduction Cont’d

Intersection of Events
If A and B are two events in a sample space S,
then the intersection, A ∩ B, is the set of all
outcomes in S that belong to both A and B
S

A AB B
 Introduction Cont’d

The Complement of any set A, denoted by A c

Is the set of all simple events in the sample space S
that do not belong to A
S

A c
A

c
A denotes the event “A does not occur”
 Introduction Cont’d

A and B are Mutually Exclusive Events if they

have no basic outcomes in common
– i.e., the set A ∩ B is empty
S

A B
 Introduction Cont’d

Union of Events: If A and B are two events in a

sample space S, then the union, A U B, is the
set of all outcomes in S that belong to either
A or B
S The entire shaded
area represents
A B AUB
 Examples
Let the Sample Space be the collection of
all possible outcomes of rolling one die:

S = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]
Let A be the event “Number rolled is even”
Let B be the event “Number rolled is at
least 4”
Then
A = [2, 4, 6] and B = [4, 5, 6]
Examples: Intersection and Union

A = [2, 4, 6] and B = [4, 5, 6]

A  B = { 2 , 4 , 5 , 6}
A  B = { 4 , 6}
A = {1, 3 , 5 }
c
Examples: exclusive and exhaustive
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

A = [2, 4, 6] and B = [4, 5, 6]

Mutually exclusive:
– A and B are not mutually exclusive
• The outcomes 4 and 6 are common to both

Collectively exhaustive:
– A and B are not collectively exhaustive
• A U B = {2,4,5,6} does not contain 1 or 3
 Counting Rules
The Addition Rule
Let n( A ) denote the number of elements of event B
 For any events A & B,
n (A ∪ B) = n (A) + n (B) – n(A ∩ B)
 If A ∩ B = Ø, then n(A ∪ B) = n(A) + n(B)
 If A1 , A 2 ,, A k
are k pair-wise mutually exclusive events, then

n ( A1  A 2    A k ) =  n ( A i )
 Counting Rules: Example

In a survey, 120 people were asked whether they are

diabetic or hypertensive or both or neither.
The results are:
40 diabetic,
60 hypertensive,
30 both and
50 neither.
Question:
Are these numbers compatible with each other?
 Counting Rules Example Cont’d

N = 120; N(D) = 40; N(H) = 60;

N ( D  H ) = 30
N(D   H ) = 50
N(D  H) = N(D) + N(H) − N(D  H) = 40 + 60 − 30 = 70
N = N(D  H) + N(D   H )
120 = 70 + 50
They are compatible!
 The Multiplication Rule
Rule 1

If each event in a sequence of n events has K

possibilities, then the total number of possibilities will

be: K*K*…* K = Kn
Example: Three coins are flipped. How many different
outcomes are there? K = 2; n= 3

Total = 2 3
=8
 The Multiplication Rule Cont’d

Rule-2
In a sequence of events, if there are
m ways the first event can occur and
n ways the second event can occur,
then the total number of ways the two events can occur
is given by mxn
 The Multiplication Rule Cont’d

Example
Consider a two stage problem solving approach. If the first
stage can be done in three ways and the second stage in five
ways, in how many different ways can the problem be solved?

m = 3; n = 5
Total = 3  5 = 15
 Permutation

Rule 3: Arranging Items

(Permutation)
n items can be arranged in n-factorial ways:

n!= n  (n − 1)  (n − 2)  1
 Permutation Cont’d

Example
Suppose a researcher wants to arrange six respondents
in a row for interview. How many different possible ways
can the arrangement be done?

n=6
n!= 6  5  4  3  2  1 = 720
 Combination

• It is a counting technique in which the order of

the objects is not important.

• Combination of n objects where r objects taken at

a time is given by:

n!
n Cr =
( n − r )!r!
 Combination Cont’d

Example:
The Department of Chemistry has 10 staff and
wants to form a research committee of 5 people.
In how many ways can the committee be formed?
Solution:

10! 3,628,800
10 C5 = = = 252
(10 − 5)!5! 14,400
 Exercise
1. How many different 6-digit ID Numbers are
possible if the first 2 digit are to be occupied by
letters and the final 4 by numbers if
a) Repetition of letters and numbers are allowed
b) Repetition of letters and numbers are not allowed
2. Assume there are 6 men and 4 women
permanent staff members in the Department of
Chemistry, AAU. In how many ways can a
committee consisting of 3 men and 2 women be
formed?
 Solution
1. 6-digit ID Numbers, 2 letters (26 choices), 4
numbers (10 choices);
a) Repetition of letters/numbers allowed:
ID Numbers= (26X26)X(10x10x10x10)=
= 262104
= 6,760,000
b) Repetition of letters/numbers not allowed:
ID Numbers = (26X25)X(10 X9X8X7)
= 3,276,000
 Solution Cont’d

2. Committee:
We can select 3 men out of 6 in
6! 720
6 C3 = = = 20
(6 − 3)!3! 36
We can select 2 women out of 4 in
4! 24
4 C2 = = =6
( 4 − 2)!2! 4
So we can select 3 men and 2 women in 20x6 = 120 ways
Application of Counting rules, permutations,
combinatory rules
To calculate the probability of a given event?

Main considerations/steps in calculating/assigning probability:

- List all possible outcomes of an experiment
(In order to list out possible out comes we use counting
rules, permutations, combinations);
- The list must be exhaustive: each trial of the random
experiment must result in some outcome on the list
- The listed outcomes must be mutually exclusive: no two
outcomes on the list can both occur on any one trial of the
experiment
Such a list is called a Sample Space and is also used to
calculate probability:
What is Probability??
 Probability of an Event

Probability: in general terms is a chance

(likelihood) that a certain event will occur.
Examples:
✓ What is the probability of a head in flipping a coin?
✓ What is the probability of even numbers in rolling
a die?
✓ What is the probability of selecting chemical
element e2 from a container with e1, e2, e3
elements?
 Probability of an Event

In Statistics, 1 Certain

-the probability of an
event E (denoted by P(E))
is the measure of the .5
likelihood of an event to
happen.

- it measures the certainty 0 Impossible

of the event.
 How can we measure/calculate/assign
probability?

Approaches in calculating the probability of an event

1. The classical approach

2. The relative frequency approach

3. The subjective approach

 Approaches in calculating probability

1. The Classical Approach

Experiment:
✓ there are n possible outcomes
✓ each outcome is equally likely
The probability of any particular outcome is 1/n
(deductive: deduce logically from symmetric nature of
the experiment; used mostly in games of chance)
Example: Experiment: rolling a die; 6 possible outcomes;
each outcome is equally likely.
So, P(3)=1/6, P(6)=1/6, …
 Approaches in calculating probability Cont’d

2. The Relative Frequency Approach

Experiment:
✓ Experiment is repeated n times (n large)
✓ x represents the number of times a particular outcome
occurred in n trials
The probability of any particular outcome is
calculated/estimated based on its long-run relative
frequency
The probability of any particular outcome is estimated by a
proportion: x/n
(empirical method of determining probability; large n results
in better estimates; used mostly in practical experiments
where data on repetitions are available )
 Example: Relative Frequency Approach

Experiment: Observing students entering bookstore

✓ 100 students were observed

✓ Out of 100 students 20 made purchase
The probability that any given student entering the
store will make a purchase is 20/100 = 0.2
 Approaches in calculating probability Cont’d

3. Subjective Approach
Experiment:
✓ Experiment is repeated n times
✓ No data on repetitions
The probability that will be assigned to a particular
outcome is based on personal judgments/intuition.
 Example: Subjective Approach

Experiment: Exploration for oil

✓ Experiment is repeated in 50 sites: n1, n2, … n50

The probability of striking oil at site n8 can be
assigned based on intuition (subjective) and reflects
the degree to which the exploration team believes
that the oil is available in Site 8; say p=0.3
 Requirements of Probabilities

1. Probability – is always between 0 and 1

Avoid
0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1 For any event A expressions like:
90% probability!

2. The sum of the probabilities of all simple

events is equal to 1
3. The sum of an event A is equal to the sum
of the probabilities assigned to the simple
events contained in A
 Probability of an Event Cont’d

Relationship between Probability and Odds:

Odds indicate chances where things work out
unfavorably.
Example: If it is about playing a game, then
probability refers to the chance of winning,
while odds refer to the chance of loosing.
If p denotes probability then the odds is:
1-p : p
If the probability of winning is ¾ , then the odds
will be (1- ¾ : ¾ ) . That is, ¼ : ¾ and is usually
expressed as 1 : 3
 Examples: Probability of unions,
intersections and complements

1. Experiment: Roll a die and observe

numbers turning up. Consider the
following events:
A: The number observed is 2, 3, or 5
B: The number observed is at least 3
C: The number 1 turns up
 Examples: Probability of unions,
intersections and complements

Questions:
a) Identify a sample space
b) Find P(A)
c) Find P(A u B)
d) Find P(A n B)
c
e) Find P( A )
f) Are events B and C mutually
exclusive?
 Examples: Probability of unions,
intersections and complements
Solution:
a) Sample Space: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Each of six simple events are equally likely to occur:
P(1)=P(2)=P(3)=P(4)=P(5)=P(6)=1/6
b) Find P(A)
The event A={2, 3, 5};
P(A)=P(2)+P(3)+P(5)=1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 = 3/6=1/2
c) Find P(A u B)
(A u B) = { 2, 3,4, 5, 6};
P(A u B) = P(2)+P(3)+P(4)+P(5)+P(6)=1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 +1/6= 5/6
d) Find P(A n B)
(A n B) = {3, 5}; P(A n B) = P(3)+P(5) = 1/6 + 1/6 = 2/6 = 1/3
c)
e) Find P( A A c c
A={2, 3, 5}; A
= {1, 4, 6} ; P( ) = 3/6 =1/2
f) Are events B and C mutually exclusive? B and C are not mutually
exclusive because the outcomes 3 and 5 are common to both.
 Examples Cont’d

In an experiment a total of 100 metallic (toxic and

non toxic) and non-metallic (toxic and non toxic)
profiles were identified (data presented in Table).
If for inspection purpose one profile is selected at
random find the following probabilities:
a) The selected profile is metallic
b) The selected profile is toxic from metallic group
c) The selected profile is non-toxic from non-
metallic group?
 Examples Cont’d

Classification of profiles
Toxic Non-toxic Total

Metallic 30 25 55

Non-metallic 10 35 45

Total 40 60 100

a) P(metallic)=55/100
b) P(Toxic n Metallic)= 30/100
c) P(Non-toxic n Non-metallic)= 35/100
 Conditional Probability
Let A and B be two events such that P(B)> 0.
The conditional probability that A occurs
given that B has occurred, is:
P( A B)
P( A/ B) =
P(B)
 Example: Conditional Probability

In previous example let

M=Metallic; N_m =Non-metalic; T=Toxic; N_t=Non-toxic

What is the probability that the selected

profile is toxic given that it is metallic?
That is, we want to find P(T | M)
30
P (T  M ) 100
P (T / M ) = =
P(M ) 55
100
 Example 2
• To study the proportion of smokers by sex from a
population, a random sample of 200 persons was
taken, the following table shows the result.
Sex Non-Smoker Smoker Total
Male 64 16 80
Female 42 78 120
Total 106 94 200

a) What is the probability of getting a non smoker given that a person

selected is a female?
b) What is the probability of getting a male given that a person
selected is smoker?
 Solution
• P (M) = 80/200, P(F) = 120/200
• P(S) = 94/200, P(N) = 106/200
• P(M n S)= 16/200, P(F n N)=42/200

1) P(N/F) = P(N n F)/P(F) =

(42/200)/(120/200)=42/120= 0.35

1) P(M/S)=P(M n S)/P(S) =
(16/200)/(94/200)= 16/94= 0.17
Independent and Dependent Events
Two events A and B are said to be
independent if

P ( A / B ) = P ( A ), or
P ( B / A) = P ( B )

Otherwise, the events are dependent

Example: Statistical Independence
Out of 100 students selected from a given
University, 60 are male and 40 are Female.
Out of 60 male students 20 are in the honors
list and others not. Out of 40 female students
10 are in the honors list.
Honors list Not in Honors List Total
Male 20 40 60
Female 10 30 40
Total 30 70 100
 Example: Statistical Independence
M: A student is male
F: A student is female
H: A student in honors list
N: Not in honors list
Are M and H independent?
P(M)=60/100 = 0.6
P(H)=30/100=0.3
P(H n M)=20/100=0.2

P(H/M)= P(H  M ) 0.2

P(H /M ) = = = 0.33  0.3
P(M ) 0.6
M and H are not independent
Remark: Independence and Mutual Exclusiveness are not
the same!!