22:19 P 9PO • ll KS 623

UNIT 3
Regression Analysis
3.1. Definition

Regression analysis is one of the most commonly used statisticaltechniques in social and
behavioral sciences as well as in physical sciences which involves identifying and evaluating the
relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables, which are

also called predictor or explanatory variables. is particularly useful for assess and adjusting for
It
confounding. Model of the relationship is hypothesized and estimates of the parameter values
are used to develop an estimated regression equation. Various tests are then employed to
determine if the model is satisfactory. If the model is deemed satisfactory, the estimated

regression equation can be used to predict the value of the dependent variable given values for
the independent variables.

Linear regression explores relationships that can be readily deseribed by straight lines or
theirgeneralization to many dimensions. A surprisingly large number of problems can be solved

by linear regression, and even more by means of transformation of the original variables that
result in linear relationships among the transformed variables.

When there is a single continuous dependent variable and a single independent variable, the

analysis called a simple linear regression analysis. This analysis assumes that there a
is
is
linear association between the two variables. Multiple regression is to learn more about the
relationship between several independent or predictor variables and a dependent or criterion
variable.

Independent variables are characteristics that can be measured directly; these variables are
also called predictor or explanatory variables used to predict or to explain the behavior of the
dependent variable.

Dependent variable a characteristie whose value depends on the values of independent

is
variables.

Reliability and Validity:

Does the model make intuitive sense? Is the model easy to understand and interpret?
Are all coefficients statisticallysignificant? (p-values less than 05)
Ane the sions associated with the coefficients a

Does aSset
values hat are
Cients
Xpected?

are reasonably close

the actual
values?
asto
the
Sthe model predictvalues
ut
Is the model sufficiently sound? (High R-square, low error, etc.)

3.2. Objectives of Regression Analysis

Regression analysis used to explain variability in dependent variable by means of one or

more of independent or control variables and to analyze relationships among variables to

answer; the question of how much dependent variable changes with changes in each of the
independent's variables, and to forecast or predict the value of dependent variable based on the
values of the independent's variables.

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The primary objective of regression is to develop a linear relationship between a response

variable and explanatory variables for the purposes of prediction, assumes that a functional
linear relationship exists, and alternative approaches (functional regression) are superior.

3.3. Assumption of Regression Analysis

The regression model is based on the following assumptions.

The relationship between independent variable and dependent is linear.
The expected value of the eror term iszero

The variance of the error term constant for all the values of the independent variable,
is
the assumntionAfhomscedusticity

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 theassumption of homoscedasticity.
There autocorrelation.

i
The independent variable uncorrelated with the error term.

is
The error term normally distributed.

is
On an average difference between the observed value (yi) and the predicted value ('yi)

is
zero.

On an average the estimated values of errors and values of independent variables are not
related to each other.

The squared differences between the observed value and the predicted value are similar.

There some variation in independent variable. If there are more than one variable in
is
the equation, then two variables should not be perfectly correlated.

Intercept or Constant
Intercept isthe point which the regression intercepts y-axis.
at
• Intercept provides a measure about the mean of dependent variable when slopes) are
zero.

If slope(s) are not zero then intercept is equal to the mean of dependent variable minus
slope x mean of independent variable.

Slope

Change dependent variable as we change independent variable

is
Zero Slope means that independent variable does not have any influence on dependent
variable.

For a linear model, slope is not equal to elasticity. That is because; elasticity percent

is
change in dependent variable, as a result one percent change in independent variable

3.4. Simple Regression Model

Simple inear regression is a statistical method that allows us oand

Summanze
und
suuy

d
relationships between continuous (quantitative) variables. IIn a cause effect
s.
t
the independent variable the cause, and the dependent variable isthe effect. Least squares
is
linear regression is a method for predicting the value of a dependent variable y. based on the

value of an independent variable x.

• One variable, denoted (*), regarded as the predictor, explanatory, or independent

is
variable.

The other variable, denoted (V), is regarded as the response, outeome, or dependent
variable.

Mathematically, the regression model is represented by the following equation:

y=Bo t B x1 t&
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Where

•r independent variable. •n Number cases or individuals.

of
y dependent variable. • )xy Sum of the product of dependent and
independent variables.

•B, The Slope theregression line £x=Sum of independent variable.

of
Bo The Žy = Sum dependent variable.
• intercept point of the •

x= =
of
regression line and the y axis. Sum of square independent variable.

y-
nZxy- ExEy Bo
B
n)x²- (2x)2

Example- linear Regression of patient's age and their bloodpressure

A study is conducted involving 10 patients to investigate the relationship and effects of patient's
age and their blood pressure.

Table (3.1) calculating the linear regression of patient's age and blood pressure

Age BP

Required calculation

35 112 3920 1225

40 128 5120 1600

3 38 130 4940 1444

Xr=491
4 44 138 6072 1936

Xy=1410
5 67 158 10586 4489

6 64 162 10368 4096 Exy=71566

7
8 69
59 140

175
8260

12075
2
348

4761
Z= 26157

25 125 3125 625

10 50 142 7100 2500

Total 491 1410 71566 26157

Caleulating the mean (T, y);

x491 =2y_ 1410

=141
I0=49.1, 10
22:19 P 9PO• l S 62

50
Where

r independent variable. • n Number of cases or individuals.

•y dependent variable. xy Sum of the product of dependent and

independent variables.

• The Slope of the regression line Sx=Sum independent variable.

B
of
The intercept point of thc Ey =Sum of dependent variable.
regression line and the y axis. Xx*= Sum square independent variable.

of
- x2y
B= n
n
xy
*-(21)
Example - linear Regression patient's age and their blood pressure
of
A study is conducted involving 10 patients to investigate the relationship and effects of patient's
age and their blood pressure.

Table (3.) calculating the linear regression of patient's age and blood pressure

Age BP
Ob:
Required caleulation

35 112 3920 1225

2 40 128 5120 1600

38 130 4940 1444

|x=491
4 44 138 6072 1936

5 67 158 10586 4489 |Ey=1410

64 162 10368 4096 Exy=71566

7 140 8260 3481
|=26157
8 69 175 12075 1761

9 25 125 3125 625

10 50 142 7100 2500

Total 191 1410 71566 26157

Caleulating the mean ( V);

I=2 491_49.1. =2141014| 10

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Caleulating the regression coefficient;

n Exy- £xEy 10 +71566 491 1410

nx-(Ex) B=10-26157-(491)
-
715660 - 692310 23350
P261570 -
B 20489
1.140
241081

B = 141 - 1.140 + 49.1

Bo = 141- 55.974 Bo = 85.026

Then substitute the regression coefficient into the regression model
Estimated blood pressure (Ý) = 85.026 + 1.140 age
Interpretation the equation:
of
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