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Bresser_FM.qxd 2/12/09 10:31 AM Page i
Developing Brazil
Bresser_FM.qxd 2/12/09 10:31 AM Page ii
Bresser_FM.qxd 2/12/09 10:31 AM Page iii
DEVELOPING
BRAZIL
Overcoming the Failure
of the Washington Consensus
b o u l d e r
l o n d o n
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5 4 3 2 1
Bresser_FM.qxd 2/12/09 10:31 AM Page v
Contents
Preface vii
Introduction 1
1 Low Growth 29
2 The Old Developmentalism 45
3 Reforms and Institutions 67
4 The Fiscal Debate 93
5 Is Inflation a Real Threat? 115
6 Overappreciated Currency and the Dutch Disease 129
7 Overappreciation and Foreign Savings 149
8 High Interest Rates 177
9 A Macroeconomic Model 203
10 Political Coalitions 221
11 New Developmentalism 243
v
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Bresser_FM.qxd 2/12/09 10:31 AM Page vii
Preface
T
his book is a discussion of why the Brazilian economy per-
formed so poorly after the 1994 price stabilization and, more gen-
erally, a critique of the Washington Consensus—the conventional
orthodoxy—that has presided over economic policy in Brazil since the
early 1990s. It is also an analysis of the national development strategy
that is gradually being defined in Brazil—an approach that I call new
developmentalism—which is an alternative to the strategy that caused
high rates of growth in Brazil between 1930 and 1980 (i.e., national de-
velopmentalism) and to conventional orthodoxy.
I know that in the North today conventional economists and jour-
nalists regularly praise Brazil’s economic performance and moderate in-
ternational policies. Such positive assessment reminds me of the way
that Argentina and Russia were presented in the 1990s, although Presi-
dent Lula is no Carlos Menem or Boris Yeltsin. Yet, since 1980, when
the debt crisis began, or even since 1994, when the Real Plan stabilized
high inflation, Brazil’s growth has been much smaller than what its nat-
ural resources and its relatively cheap labor would predict. I will present
data to demonstrate that the economic performance of Brazil is much
worse than that of China and India since 1980 and worse than Russia’s
since the late 1990s—three countries that usually are cited together with
Brazil as the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China).
The Washington Consensus demonstrably failed to promote growth
and redistribution in the countries that adopted it, whereas the countries
that didn’t adopt it, but instead updated their development strategies,
continue to grow steadily. Brazil falls into the former category, the dy-
namic Asian countries into the latter. There is also a third category of
vii
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viii Preface
countries that, like Argentina and Russia, adopted the conventional or-
thodoxy promoted by the Washington Consensus and suffered major
crises, but that learned their lessons, changed their macroeconomic poli-
cies, and experienced high growth rates. Nevertheless, in many coun-
tries, including Brazil and Mexico, the conventional orthodoxy contin-
ues to dominate economic policies. I argue in the pages that follow that
Brazil and many other developing countries can achieve substantially
higher rates of growth and be successful in catching up with the income
levels of advanced countries if they adopt specific national growth
strategies instead of simply abiding by an economic ideology that re-
flects rich countries’ recommendations and pressures. In doing so, I use
theories and models, but keep them simple, believing that good eco-
nomics, like any good theory, can almost always be explained in simple
terms. My subject matter is Brazil’s economy, but my analysis is in-
tended to have a broader application to other developing countries.
I have been critical of the Washington Consensus and of the macro-
economics of stagnation that it implies ever since it became dominant in
Latin America (Bresser-Pereira 1991a [1990]). My criticism, however,
gained a new dimension beginning in the first quarter of 1999, by which
time I had been for several years a member of the Cardoso administra-
tion.1 That administration’s economic policies, after the successful and
innovative Real Plan of 1994, became fully orthodox and led the coun-
try to two balance-of-payment crises. From 1999 to 2001, Yoshiaki
Nakano, my constant companion on this intellectual journey, and I em-
barked on a systematic critique of the conventional orthodoxy based on
our shared structuralist and Keynesian views of economics (see Bresser-
Pereira 2001a [1999]; Bresser-Pereira and Nakano 2002, 2003). Our
criticism showed that the conventional proposals, albeit inclusive of
certain necessary policies and reforms, did not, in fact, promote a coun-
try’s development, but instead kept it semistagnant, incapable of com-
peting with wealthier countries, and easy prey to a form of economic
populism, namely, foreign exchange populism. Our alternative economic
strategy—new developmentalism—was innovative in that it acknowl-
edged a series of historical facts that implied a need to review the na-
tional development strategy. New developmentalism is both a “third dis-
course” between old developmentalism and conventional orthodoxy and
a national development strategy that attributes a smaller role to the state
and to industrial policy while emphasizing macroeconomic stability and
sustainable development. It may be viewed as an updated developmental-
ist strategy applied to countries that have risen to become middle-income
countries. It is also a strategy that responds to the new realities of global
capitalism. I am not proposing to return to the “developmental state”
Bresser_FM.qxd 2/12/09 2:29 PM Page ix
Preface ix
Notes
x Preface
and throughout that period I personally made clear to the president my dis-
agreement with the economic policies that his economic team was pursuing.
2. Other classical analyses of the developmental state include those by
Alice Amsden (1989) on Korea and Robert Wade (1990) on Taiwan. For a more
recent treatment, see Woo-Cummings (1999). These works deal with Asian
countries, but between the 1930s and the 1980s, Brazil was also a developmen-
tal state (see Bresser-Pereira 1977).
Bresser_Intro.qxd 2/10/09 11:25 AM Page 1
Introduction
B
razil in the early twenty-first century is experiencing a time
of uncertainty and self-questioning. The country attained democ-
racy in 1985 and has been making a great effort to reduce the rad-
ical inequalities that mark its society, but the economy has been nearly
stagnant since 1980; although the huge increase in commodity prices
has improved growth rates in the early years of the century, overappre-
ciation of the domestic currency makes the future uncertain and opti-
mism unwise. The core political goals of modern societies are security,
freedom, well-being, social justice, and protection of the environment,
but we do not know how to achieve them. Capitalism is victorious and
organizes the surface of the earth with nation-states that compete
through their firms, but many forms of capitalism exist, all more or less
dynamic, more or less assuring of freedom, more or less fair, and none
has a monopoly on the one true path. The hegemonic power, the United
States, which at one time—the early 1990s—thought it knew what this
true path might be, turned it into the Washington Consensus and into an
economic “conventional orthodoxy” that failed to convince a number of
Asian countries; those that it did convince lagged behind economically.
This is one of the reasons why such hegemony has, since the turn of the
century, been experiencing a very deep crisis.
My goal in this book is to better understand the perverse economic
reasoning that, inspired by the conventional orthodoxy, prevails in Brazil,
notwithstanding that high inflation rates were tamed in 1994 and despite
a favorable international economic scenario. My goal is to develop a
political argument and a macroeconomic argument to criticize a strategy
that rich countries seek to sell to developing countries or (if they get
1
Bresser_Intro.qxd 2/10/09 11:25 AM Page 2
2 Developing Brazil
Introduction 3
4 Developing Brazil
Introduction 5
Method
6 Developing Brazil
Introduction 7
8 Developing Brazil
Introduction 9
This book springs from a basic question: why has neither the price sta-
bility attained in 1994 nor world prosperity in recent years been enough
to lead Brazil to macroeconomic stability and resumed economic
growth? Since 1980, Brazil’s economy has remained macroeconomi-
cally unstable, with low growth and high unemployment. The growth
rate of income per capita, which was 4 percent a year between 1950 and
1980, fell to less than 1 percent at one point. In 1994 the Real Plan fi-
nally overcame the high inflation that had ravaged the country for 14
years, but the long-awaited resumption of development never came. After
2002, a structural external shock, caused by growing worldwide pros-
perity, added to two large devaluations of the Brazilian currency and
doubled Brazil’s exports, but even so, the country failed to show satis-
factory growth. This prolonged quasi stagnation of the Brazilian econ-
omy led me to write this book. If the Brazilian economy were healthy—
if the main macroeconomic indicators pointed toward stability and if the
economy were growing at a reasonable pace—we might concern ourselves
with long-term reforms capable of contributing to gradually making Brazil
Bresser_Intro.qxd 2/10/09 11:25 AM Page 10
10 Developing Brazil
a more prosperous, just, and, perhaps, happier society. Alas, this is not
the case. Although no country grew as fast as Brazil between 1930 and
1980, since 1980, or since 1994, it has been among the slowest growing
of countries.8
In this book I offer an explanation of the chronic quasi stagnation of
the Brazilian economy. The Brazilian economy fails to grow because it
is caught in a trap of high interest rates and an uncompetitive exchange
rate that keeps savings and investment rates depressed—a trap that eco-
nomic policy reinforces instead of identifying and overcoming. Why do
these mistakes occur? Naturally, there is an issue of incompetence, there
are obstacles to true fiscal adjustment, and there are domestic vested in-
terests in maintaining a high interest rate and an uncompetitive ex-
change rate, but the main reason is that, in 1995, after 15 years of crisis
and no national development strategy, the country’s macroeconomic
policy was fully subordinated to the dictums of the Washington Consen-
sus: the country’s economic “strategy” came to be determined abroad.
Never have Brazil’s economic policymakers received as many compli-
ments from Washington and New York as they have since 1995. The un-
derlying rationale of the conventional orthodoxy, however, is not re-
sumed development, nor even macroeconomic stability, but serving the
commercial and financial interests of advanced countries and, therefore,
neutralizing the capacity of middle-income countries such as Brazil,
which are regarded as competitors and a threat because of their cheap
labor. I will probably be called a “conspiracy theorist” or an “outdated
nationalist” for this statement, but it stems from the very nature of glob-
alization, characterized by generalized economic competition between
nation-states. In this ever fiercer competition, middle-income countries
pose an objective threat to advanced countries, owing mainly to their
cheap labor. The threat hangs mainly over the working class and the
middle class (whether professional, or wage-earning, or business), who
are directly affected by competition from developing countries; this is
why US workers opposed the admission of Mexico into the North Amer-
ican Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA); on the other hand, the interests of
large multinationals and their executives and shareholders are not so
clear, because some stand to gain while others may lose. Since, how-
ever, these countries are democracies and politicians play a strategic
role, hegemonic thinking and the policies it generates represent the av-
erage of national interests; it is this thinking, expressed in the conven-
tional orthodoxy, that regards middle-income countries such as Brazil as
threats.9 In the medium term this is a mistake, as advanced countries will
end up benefiting from the greater economic development of all countries;
Bresser_Intro.qxd 2/10/09 11:25 AM Page 11
Introduction 11
but, in the short term, the stagnation of wages in rich countries is related
to the growing competition from countries with cheap labor.
In accordance with a pattern common to many developing coun-
tries, after 1990 the Brazilian economic authorities—with a brief inter-
regnum during the Itamar Franco administration, which included the
formulation of the Real Plan—adopted the reforms prescribed by the
Washington Consensus and the accompanying monetary policy—one
based on high interest rates and an appreciated exchange rate. The same
happened in every Latin American country that, having accepted the
recommendations of the conventional orthodoxy, relinquished control
over its exchange rate by accepting the policy of open foreign accounts
and the growth with foreign savings put forward by Washington and
New York. The sole exception was Chile, which did the right thing by
liberalizing its economy and turning toward exports but also imposed
controls on capitals inflows and was thereby able to manage its ex-
change rate. Not by chance, Chile was the only Latin American country
to report satisfactory growth. The orthodoxy’s inadequacy as regards re-
suming economic development, however, soon made itself felt. The sec-
ond country to adopt it—Mexico—faced a balance-of-payments crisis
as early as 1994, and, as the country most committed to the conventional
orthodoxy, remains semistagnant to this day. Later, in 1998, Brazil’s num-
ber came up. But the crisis that indelibly marked the failure of the Wash-
ington Consensus was Argentina’s, where President Carlos Menem had
fully adopted every recommendation—and been commended for it. Like
Argentina, Brazil is an example of the disaster of mindless adoption of
the conventional orthodoxy by a developing country. Asian countries
brought about their capitalist revolutions without implementing certain
key conventional orthodoxy recommendations—particularly those re-
garding open capital accounts and the policy of growth with foreign
savings—whereas Brazil, like almost all Latin American countries, sub-
ordinated itself to the orthodoxy and to the local interests of nonproduc-
tive, or rentier, capital, lagging behind the massive international compe-
tition that characterizes today’s global capitalism. Several studies show
the baleful outcome of the application of the Washington Consensus to
Latin America. A recent one (Berr and Combarnous 2007, pp. 536–537)
uses factor analysis to examine the impact of these reforms on 23 Latin
American and Caribbean countries from 1990 to 2003 and concludes
that “an engagement in the process of reforms is not accompanied by
significantly stronger growth or a significantly reduced poverty or in-
equality.” In addition, “the ‘good students’ failed to reach better results
than the rest in terms of economic growth.” In Asia, several countries
Bresser_Intro.qxd 2/10/09 11:25 AM Page 12
12 Developing Brazil
that held their ground in the face of the conventional orthodoxy, such as
South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia, also made the same
mistake in the early 1990s and endured the crisis of 1997, whereas at
the same time, and faced with the same constraints, other countries in
Eastern Asia, particularly China, India, and Taiwan, retained control
over their exchange rates, preventing them from appreciating, and con-
tinued to grow. In more general terms, at the level of reform, while Latin
American countries indiscriminately accepted every liberalizing reform,
interrupting their national revolutions, letting their nations became dis-
organized, and losing cohesion and autonomy, Asian countries were
more prudent: they accepted certain reforms that were compatible with
the higher income levels they had attained but preserved their national
autonomy—their national development strategies.
After all the crises, one Latin American country seems to have
learned its lesson. The case in point is Argentina, which since 2003 has
attained economic growth rates almost on a par with China’s. The policy
that has been in place since the crisis of 2001, with controlled public ac-
counts, low interest rates, and a managed exchange rate (thanks to those
interest rates and to the taxation of commodity exports that, by exploit-
ing abundant natural resources, can cause malignant exchange appreci-
ation), indicates that Argentina is treading a new-developmentalist path.
It is still too soon to be sure of its success. Inflation rates close to 12 per-
cent a year in 2006 are a problem whose solution—price controls—is not
sustainable in the medium run. The Argentine authorities, however, have
been fiscally responsible and are putting up a strong resistance to the
pressures of the International Monetary Fund—and, therefore, of the
conventional orthodoxy—to appreciate the exchange rate and thereby
control inflation. This control will have to be achieved by other means,
through a temporarily higher interest rate and more stringent fiscal ad-
justment—measures compatible with new developmentalism.
Developmentalism was the name given to the national strategy that
Latin American countries in general and Brazil in particular adopted be-
tween 1930 and 1980. In this period, and especially between 1930 and
1960, many Latin Americans were firmly set on nation building and on
finally endowing their formally independent states with national soci-
eties equipped with basic solidarity when it came to international com-
petition. But the weakening caused by the crisis of the 1980s, combined
with the hegemonic force of the ideological wave that began in the United
States in the 1970s and with the internal prevalence of an ideological
cycle that I call the Democracy and Justice Cycle, brought the national
revolution in Latin American countries to a halt or to a new dependency.
Bresser_Intro.qxd 2/10/09 11:25 AM Page 13
Introduction 13
Local elites, who stopped thinking with their own heads, took the advice
of, and yielded to the pressures from, the North, and their countries, de-
prived of their national development strategies, saw development stop
in its tracks. The conventional orthodoxy, which replaced national de-
velopmentalism, had not been internally formulated and failed to reflect
national concerns and interests, but instead reflected the vision and ob-
jectives of rich countries. Furthermore, as is typical of neoliberal ideol-
ogy, it assumed that the market could coordinate everything automati-
cally and proposed that the state should dispense with the economic role
it had always played in developed countries: that of supplementing the
market’s coordination in order to promote economic development and
equity. I have been a systematic critic of the macroeconomics of stagna-
tion that the conventional orthodoxy proposes because it is based on a
mistaken agenda—it still regards inflation as the main problem in the
Brazilian economy—and, mainly, because it fails to produce the macro-
economic stability that is expected of it. Instead, because of the high in-
terest rates and the appreciated exchange rate, the conventional ortho-
doxy keeps the country in permanent semistagnation, besides rendering
it prone to recurring balance-of-payments crises such as those that oc-
curred in 1998 and 2002 and that will occur again in time, depending on
what happens to the world’s economy, as a result of the brutal apprecia-
tion of the real in recent years. I have also criticized the loss of a sense
of nationhood and the lack of a national development strategy. But my
criticism is aimed not just at the prevailing conventional wisdom but es-
pecially at the prevailing conventional wisdom that complains of exces-
sive fiscal adjustment, suggests that the country should again turn to its
domestic market, advocates higher public spending to foster effective
demand, and irresponsibly proposes “renegotiating” domestic and for-
eign debt. The national macroeconomic stabilization and development
strategy I advance in this book—the new-developmentalist strategy—
involves, first, more—not less—stringent fiscal adjustment, has as its
main goal lower short-term interest rates (today’s real disease in the
Brazilian economy), and advocates managing the exchange rate in such
a manner as to keep inflation under control and sustain the Brazilian
economy’s competitiveness. New developmentalism is a national devel-
opment strategy that has been gradually defining itself in Latin America
as the region’s countries see the failure of the Washington Consensus to
promote growth and its socially inequitable nature, which favors only
the wealthy and the more educated strata of professional middle classes
while imposing losses on middle-class business owners, professionals,
and the poor. New developmentalism replaces its forerunner—a national
Bresser_Intro.qxd 2/10/09 11:25 AM Page 14
14 Developing Brazil
Introduction 15
16 Developing Brazil
Introduction 17
18 Developing Brazil
objective; third, that in order to exert this control, interest rates will in-
evitably remain high owing to sovereign risk and to fiscal issues; fourth,
that “development is a competition among countries for foreign sav-
ings” and that the implicit current account deficits and the appreciation
of the exchange rate caused by capital inflows are no cause for concern.
Usually the adjective “orthodox” is applied to macroeconomic poli-
cies: orthodox policies usually have a neoclassical foundation and are
opposed either to Keynesian macroeconomics or to populist policies. If
we ignore the latter, a macroeconomic policy is orthodox if it gives full
priority to the control of inflation; it is Keynesian if it combines the con-
trol of inflation with economic growth. Both approaches, however, know
that moderate interest rates and a competitive exchange rate are also ob-
jectives to be achieved. Perhaps the orthodox are less adamant than the
Keynesians in this matter, but, for instance, during the times of high
growth in Japan, we had a classical combination of an orthodox finance
ministry with a developmentalist Ministry of International Trade and In-
dustry (MITI), in which the orthodox macroeconomic policy was based
on fiscal adjustment, moderate interest rates, and a competitive ex-
change rate. The “conventional orthodoxy” that is being adopted by
many developing countries, including Brazil, however, is orthodox only
because of the priority given to the control of inflation. In the three other
variables, it adopts the opposite values: soft fiscal adjustment, high in-
terest rates, and an uncompetitive exchange rate. Thus, the conventional
orthodoxy is an orthodoxy for developing countries. We can discuss
whether it is really soft or not in terms of fiscal policy, because the
economists involved maintain a strong rhetoric of austerity, whereas
Keynesians admit budget deficits in special circumstances. I discuss this
matter in Chapter 4. There is no doubt, however, about the macroeco-
nomic trap: high interest rates and an uncompetitive exchange rate.
There is no doubt, either, as to the other two issues that I will discuss in
this book and that are related to the uncompetitive exchange rate: the
conventional orthodoxy proposes a policy of growth with foreign sav-
ings that usually does not increase the investment and the growth rates,
but appreciates the currency and increases domestic consumption be-
sides increasing the foreign debt, and ignores the Dutch disease that
makes the national currency overvalued and uncompetitive. I discuss
the latter two issues in Chapter 5. Besides a chronic macroeconomic in-
stability, the consequences are insufficient effective demand, lack of
export-oriented investment opportunities, and a low investment rate,
which prevent developing countries from catching up—from gradually
achieving the income levels of the rich countries.
Bresser_Intro.qxd 2/10/09 11:25 AM Page 19
Introduction 19
20 Developing Brazil
Introduction 21
as the very ranchers from whom Getúlio Vargas sprang. The adversaries
were imperialism, represented mainly by British and US interests, and
the associated agricultural-exporter oligarchy. The most strategic agree-
ment that can be made in a modern capitalist society is that struck be-
tween industrial businesspeople and the state’s bureaucracy, including
politicians, but such an agreement also involves workers and the middle
classes. There will always be domestic opposition, somehow identified
with imperialism, or with today’s colony-free neoimperialism, and with
local collaborator or globalist groups. In globalized capitalism, the lat-
ter are the rentiers, who live on high interest rates, and the financial sec-
tor, which collects commissions from the rentiers.
A nation is inevitably nationalist, insofar as nationalism is the ide-
ology of the formation of the national state and its permanent reinforce-
ment or consolidation. Nationalism may also be defined, as Ernest Gell-
ner does, as an ideology that pursues the correspondence of nation and
state, that is, that wants a state for each nation.14 This is a good defini-
tion, too, but typical of a thinker from Central Europe; it is a definition
that exhausts itself as soon as the nation-state forms—when nation and
state first coincide on a given territory, formally establishing a “sover-
eign state.” Therefore, it disregards Ernest Renan’s celebrated 1882
aphorism: “a nation is an everyday plebiscite.”15 It fails to explain how
a nation-state may formally exist without a true nation, as is the case
with Latin American countries, which, in the early nineteenth century,
were endowed with states owing not only to the patriotic efforts of na-
tionalist groups but also to the good services of Britain with its maneu-
vers to drive Spain and Portugal out of the region. As a result, these
countries saw themselves equipped with states (i.e., with a national law
system and an organization to guarantee such system) in the absence of
true nations, as they stopped being colonies to become dependent on
Britain, France, and, later, the United States. For a nation to truly exist, it
is a requirement that the various social classes, notwithstanding the con-
flicts that set them apart, be joined in national solidarity when it comes to
international competition and that they use national criteria to make pol-
icy decisions, especially concerning economic policy and institutional re-
form. In other words, rulers must think with their own minds, instead of
dedicating themselves to confidence building, that is, the construction of
foreign credibility at the expense of national interests, and all of society
must be capable of formulating a national development strategy.
New developmentalism is a manifestation of a moderate national-
ism that is reemerging in Brazil after the exhaustion of the society’s
cycle that I call the Democracy and Justice Cycle (1964– ) and also
Bresser_Intro.qxd 2/10/09 11:25 AM Page 22
22 Developing Brazil
Introduction 23
24 Developing Brazil
Introduction 25