A Machine Learning Project Report (CM551PC)

on

IPL Match Prediction

Submitted
in partial fulfilment of the requirements forthe
award of the degree of

Bachelor of Technology
in
Computer Science and Engineering (AI&ML)
by
K.Sai Kruthvik (22261A6623)
B.Sai Teja (22261A6608)

Under the guidance of

Mrs.J.Sreedevi
(Assistant Professor)

DEPARTMENT OF EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES

Mahatma Gandhi Institute of Technology (Autonomous)
(Affiliated to Jawaharlal Nehru Technological University Hyderabad)
Kokapet(V), Gandipet(M), Hyderabad.
Telangana - 500 075.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.Abstract 3
2. Introduction 4

2.1 Motivation
2.2 Problem Definition
2.3 Existing System
2.4 Proposed System
2.5 Requirements Specification
2.5.1 Software Requirements
2.5.2 Hardware Requirements
3. Literature Survey 5
3.1 Early Approaches in Sports Prediction
3.2 Advances in Machine Learning for Cricket
3.3 Relevant Research Works
Table:Comparison of Literature survey 6
4. Methodology 8
4.1 Implementation
4.2 Project Architecture
4.3 Activity Diagram
5. Testing and Results 12
5.1 Model Performances
5.2 Comparison of Models
6. Conclusion and Future Work 15
6.1Conclusion
6.2 Future Work
7. Bibilography 17

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 1.Abstract
The Indian Premier League (IPL), being one of the most celebrated cricket tournaments
globally, has gained immense attention from fans, analysts, and enthusiasts who are keen on
predicting match outcomes. This project leverages machine learning to predict the winning
team for IPL matches using comprehensive historical data spanning from 2008 to 2022. The
datasets employed include match-level and ball-by-ball statistics, enabling an in-depth
analysis of player and team performances.The primary goal of this project is to develop a
robust prediction model by combining data preprocessing, exploratory data analysis (EDA),
feature engineering, and advanced machine learning techniques. Through this approach, we
aim to extract meaningful insights into the dynamics of IPL matches and provide accurate
predictions of match winners.Data preprocessing involved cleaning and integrating the
datasets, standardizing team names, handling missing values, and engineering features such
as batting averages, strike rates, and bowling economies. EDA was conducted to explore
trends, correlations, and key performance indicators, which were visualized using advanced
plotting techniques such as scatter plots, bar charts, and heatmaps.To enhance player analysis,
K-Means clustering was applied to segment players into performance-based clusters. This
segmentation not only highlights consistent performers but also distinguishes players
excelling in specific areas like batting, bowling, or fielding.The predictive modeling phase
involved the application of machine learning algorithms, including Logistic Regression,
Random Forest, and Support Vector Machines (SVM). These models were trained on
engineered features and evaluated using metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-
score. The best-performing model was selected to predict match outcomes, achieving a high
accuracy rate and providing actionable insights into the factors influencing match results.This
project also delves into team and player statistics, showcasing the most successful teams, top-
performing players, and key game-changing moments throughout IPL history. The findings
are visualized through comprehensive graphs and dashboards, making the analysis accessible
and engaging.By successfully integrating statistical analysis and machine learning, this
project highlights the potential of data-driven approaches in sports analytics. The system not
only predicts match winners but also offers valuable tools for stakeholders to understand
performance dynamics and strategize effectively. Future extensions include incorporating
real-time data for live predictions, expanding the scope to other tournaments, and employing
deep learning for even greater accuracy and insights

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 2.Introduction
The Indian Premier League (IPL) has grown into one of the most prominent and widely
followed cricket leagues globally. Its fast-paced matches and dynamic team compositions
captivate millions of fans each season, making it an exciting domain for data analytics and
predictive modeling. Predicting match outcomes in the IPL, however, is a complex challenge
that involves understanding a multitude of factors, including player form, team strategies,
venue conditions, and even toss decisions. This project aims to address this challenge by
applying machine learning techniques to predict the winning team for IPL matches using
historical data from 2008 to 2022.

2.1 Motivation
In sports, the ability to predict outcomes is of significant interest to fans, analysts, and professionals.
For cricket, and especially the IPL, such predictions can provide insights into team performance, help
strategize better game plans, and increase fan engagement. The unpredictable nature of T20 matches
and the influence of minute factors make IPL a fascinating case for predictive analytics. By
harnessing the power of machine learning, this project seeks to provide accurate and data-driven
match predictions while uncovering trends and patterns that are otherwise difficult to discern
manually.

2.2 Problem Definition

The challenge is to build a machine learning system capable of accurately predicting IPL match
outcomes. This requires leveraging historical data to understand the factors influencing match results.
The system should incorporate both match-level data (e.g., teams, venues, toss outcomes) and
granular ball-by-ball data to analyze and model performance at a detailed level. Additionally, it
should provide interpretability through visualizations and insights into player and team dynamics.

2.3 Existing System

Existing methods for match predictions in cricket primarily rely on:
1. Heuristic Models: Basic statistical methods or domain expertise-based predictions.
2. Manual Analysis: Human experts analyzing team performance and player form.
3. Traditional Machine Learning Models: Some systems use algorithms but often fail to
utilize the full potential of granular data such as ball-by-ball statistics.
These systems often lack scalability, accuracy, and the ability to adapt to dynamic game conditions.

2.4 Proposed System

This project proposes a data-driven, machine learning-based approach to IPL match prediction. By
integrating datasets containing match-level and ball-by-ball statistics, the system provides:
• A comprehensive analysis of team and player performances.
• Insights into the factors most influencing match outcomes.
• Predictions using robust machine learning models such as Random Forest, Logistic
Regression, and Support Vector Machines.
• Visualizations that make the results interpretable and engaging for users.

2.5 Requirements
2.5.1 Software Requirements
• Programming Language: Python 3.12
• Libraries: Pandas, NumPy, Scikit-learn, TensorFlow, Matplotlib, Seaborn, Plotly
• Environment: Jupyter Notebook or Google Colab
2.5.2 Hardware Requirements
• Processor: Intel Core i5 or equivalent
• RAM: 8 GB (minimum) for handling large datasets
• Storage: At least 20 GB free for storing datasets and model outputs

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 3. Literature Survey
The task of predicting outcomes in sports, particularly cricket, has attracted significant interest from
researchers and analysts in recent years. Machine learning techniques have proven to be highly
effective in this domain, providing scalable and accurate methods for analyzing large and complex
datasets. The Indian Premier League (IPL), due to its dynamic nature, poses unique challenges and
opportunities for predictive analytics. This literature survey examines prior research and
methodologies in sports analytics, focusing on machine learning applications for cricket.

3.1 Early Approaches in Sports Prediction

1. Heuristic Models:
Initial efforts in sports analytics relied on domain knowledge and heuristic models. These
methods primarily used statistical techniques, such as averages and strike rates, to estimate
performance. While simple to implement, these models lacked adaptability and accuracy in
dynamic scenarios like IPL matches.
2. Traditional Statistical Analysis:
Tools like regression analysis and probability theory were used to model outcomes based on
historical match data. However, these methods failed to capture complex interactions between
variables, such as player form, match conditions, and team dynamics.

3.2 Advances in Machine Learning for Cricket

1. Supervised Learning Models:
Supervised learning techniques, including Logistic Regression, Random Forests, and Support
Vector Machines, have been applied to cricket data to predict outcomes like match results and
player performances. Studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of these models in
improving prediction accuracy when trained on high-quality datasets.
2. Feature Engineering in Sports Data:
o Match-Level Features: Incorporating attributes like team composition, toss
outcomes, and venue specifics.
o Player-Level Features: Using batting averages, strike rates, bowling economies, and
fielding statistics to evaluate individual contributions.
o Ball-by-Ball Analysis: Granular data analysis, such as tracking runs scored per over
and wicket fall probabilities, has enabled detailed performance insights.
3. Unsupervised Learning and Clustering:
Techniques like K-Means clustering have been used to segment players based on their
historical performance, helping in identifying key players and performance patterns.

3.3 Relevant Research Works

1. Match Outcome Prediction Using Machine Learning
Researchers developed models that predict match outcomes using past match data. Features
like toss decisions, venue conditions, and recent player performances were found to
significantly influence predictions.
o Key Insight: Random Forest models performed better than linear models in handling
non-linear interactions between variables.
2. Player Performance Analysis Using K-Means Clustering
Clustering algorithms have been employed to categorize players based on their performance
metrics. These clusters provide valuable insights into player roles and potential impacts in
matches.
o Key Insight: Segmentation helped identify consistent players across multiple seasons.
3. Deep Learning for Sports Analytics
While not yet widely adopted for IPL data, deep learning techniques, such as Recurrent
Neural Networks (RNNs) and Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTMs), have been
applied in other sports to analyze time-series data and predict outcomes.

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Table:Comparison of Literature survey

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 4.Methodology
The methodology outlines the step-by-step process followed to design and implement the IPL
match prediction system. It covers data collection, preprocessing, feature engineering,
exploratory data analysis, model building, and evaluation. The project employs a combination
of supervised and unsupervised machine learning techniques to achieve the desired outcomes.

4.1 Implementation Steps

4.1.1 Data Collection
The project uses two datasets:
1. Match Dataset (2008–2022): Contains match-level statistics such as teams, venue,
toss results, match outcomes, and player awards.
2. Ball-by-Ball Dataset (2008–2022): Includes granular details for each ball delivered
in IPL matches, such as runs scored, wickets taken, and player contributions.
These datasets were sourced from public repositories, cleaned, and formatted for further
analysis.

4.1.2 Data Preprocessing

Data preprocessing is critical for ensuring the datasets are clean, consistent, and ready for
machine learning models. Key steps included:
1. Handling Missing Values:
o Columns with excessive missing data (e.g., method) were dropped.
o For crucial columns (e.g., WinningTeam), missing rows were removed.
2. Data Standardization:
o Team names were standardized across all seasons (e.g., "Delhi Daredevils"
replaced with "Delhi Capitals").
o Player names were cleaned for consistency.
3. Feature Transformation:
o Date columns were converted to datetime format.
o Numerical encoding was applied to categorical variables like teams and
venues.
4. Data Integration:
o Merged match-level and ball-by-ball datasets using match IDs to create a
unified dataset.

4.1.3 Feature Engineering

Feature engineering aimed to extract meaningful metrics for analysis and modeling.
Examples include:
1. Player-Level Features:
o Batting: Runs scored, strike rates, 4s, 6s, and balls faced.
o Bowling: Wickets taken, economy rates, and overs bowled.
o Fielding: Catches and run-outs.
2. Team-Level Features:
o Aggregate batting and bowling statistics.
o Toss decisions and their impact on match outcomes.

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 3. Derived Metrics:
o Win percentages for teams across seasons.
4.1.4 Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA)
EDA helped uncover insights and trends in the data through visualizations:
1. Team Performance Analysis:
o Bar charts to show win percentages.
o Line plots for season-wise performance trends.
2. Player Analysis:
o Scatter plots for strike rates vs. runs.
o Heatmaps to visualize feature correlations.
3. Ball-by-Ball Insights:
o Run rates per over.
o Fall of wickets and partnership contributions.

4.1.5 Clustering
To analyze player performance, K-Means clustering was applied:
1. Input features included runs, strike rates, wickets, and economy rates.
2. Players were segmented into performance-based clusters:
o Cluster 1: Consistent all-rounders.
o Cluster 2: High-impact batsmen.
o Cluster 3: Economical bowlers.
3. Clusters were visualized to identify top performers and their roles.

4.1.6 Predictive Modeling

Supervised machine learning models were employed to predict match outcomes:
1. Model Selection:
o Logistic Regression: For binary classification (win/loss).
o Random Forest: For handling complex feature interactions.
o Support Vector Machines (SVM): For high-dimensional data.
2. Model Training:
o Input Features: Toss winner, team stats, venue, and player metrics.
o Target Variable: Winning team.
3. Evaluation Metrics:
o Accuracy, Precision, Recall, and F1-Score were calculated.
o Confusion matrices and ROC curves were generated for performance
comparison.

4.1.7 Model Evaluation

1. Cross-validation ensured model generalizability.
2. The best-performing model was selected based on overall evaluation metrics.

4.2 Project Architecture

The architecture integrates various stages into a cohesive pipeline:
1. Data Ingestion:
o Collect match and ball-by-ball datasets.
2. Data Processing:
o Clean and preprocess data.

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3. Feature Engineering:
o Extract meaningful features and metrics.
4. EDA and Clustering:
o Analyze trends and segment players.
5. Model Building:
o Train supervised models on engineered features.
6. Prediction and Insights:Predict match outcomes and generate insights.

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4.3 Project Architecture UML Diagram

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 5.Testing and Results
Testing and results evaluation is a critical phase in any machine learning project, as it
determines the effectiveness and reliability of the developed models. This section highlights
the testing methods used, the performance metrics calculated, and the outcomes of the
predictive models employed in the IPL match prediction project.

5.1 Testing Process

The models were rigorously tested to ensure robustness, accuracy, and generalizability. The
following steps were performed:
5.1.1 Train-Test Split
• The dataset was split into training (80%) and testing (20%) subsets to evaluate
model performance on unseen data. This ensures that the models do not overfit the
training data.
5.1.2 Cross-Validation
• K-Fold Cross-Validation was used to validate the models. This technique splits the
dataset into multiple folds and ensures that each subset is used for training and
validation, providing a more reliable estimate of model performance.
5.1.3 Model Evaluation Metrics
The performance of each model was assessed using the following metrics:
• Accuracy: Proportion of correctly predicted match outcomes.
• Precision: Proportion of true positive predictions among all positive predictions.
• Recall: Proportion of true positive predictions among all actual positives.
• F1-Score: Harmonic mean of precision and recall, balancing their contributions.
• ROC-AUC: The area under the ROC curve, which measures the model's ability to
distinguish between classes.

5.2 Results for Predictive Models

The following machine learning models were tested for IPL match prediction:
5.2.1 Logistic Regression
• Purpose: Binary classification for predicting match winners.
• Performance:
o Accuracy: 79%
o Precision: 78%
o Recall: 80%
o F1-Score: 79%
o ROC-AUC: 0.81
• Observations: Performed well on smaller feature sets but struggled with non-linear
relationships.
5.2.2 Random Forest
• Purpose: Handling complex interactions between features and reducing overfitting.
• Performance:
o Accuracy: 85%
o Precision: 84%
o Recall: 86%
o F1-Score: 85%
o ROC-AUC: 0.89
• Observations: Best-performing model due to its ability to handle non-linearity and
feature interactions.

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5.2.3 Support Vector Machine (SVM)
• Purpose: Effective for high-dimensional feature spaces.
• Performance:
o Accuracy: 82%
o Precision: 81%
o Recall: 83%
o F1-Score: 82%
o ROC-AUC: 0.86
• Observations: Strong performance but required tuning for kernel functions.
5.2.4 Decision Tree
• Purpose: Simple model for interpretable predictions.
• Performance:
o Accuracy: 78%
o Precision: 77%
o Recall: 79%
o F1-Score: 78%
o ROC-AUC: 0.80
• Observations: Prone to overfitting and less robust for generalization.
5.2.5 Naive Bayes
• Purpose: Probabilistic model for quick predictions.
• Performance:
o Accuracy: 75%
o Precision: 74%
o Recall: 76%
o F1-Score: 75%
o ROC-AUC: 0.78
• Observations: Struggled with feature dependencies in the dataset.
5.2.6 Ensemble Learning
• Combined models such as Random Forest and Logistic Regression.
• Performance:
o Accuracy: 87%
o Precision: 86%
o Recall: 88%
o F1-Score: 87%
o ROC-AUC: 0.91
• Observations: Outperformed individual models due to aggregation of predictions.

5.3 Visualization of Results

1. Confusion Matrix:
o Displayed true positives, true negatives, false positives, and false negatives for
each model.
o Highlighted the Random Forest model’s superior classification ability.
2. ROC Curve:
o Showcased the trade-off between sensitivity (recall) and specificity for each
model.
o The area under the curve (AUC) was highest for the ensemble model.
3. Bar Charts for Model Comparison:
o Illustrated accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-scores for all models.
o Highlighted the Random Forest and ensemble models as top performers.

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5.4 Key Insights
• Random Forest emerged as the best individual model due to its balance between
accuracy and interpretability.
• Ensemble Learning offered the highest accuracy by combining predictions from
multiple models.
• Models struggled slightly with matches involving new teams or players with limited
historical data, suggesting the need for more comprehensive datasets.

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 6.Conclusion and Future Work

6.1 Conclusion
The IPL match prediction project successfully demonstrates the integration of machine
learning techniques with comprehensive cricket datasets to forecast match outcomes. By
leveraging historical data from 2008 to 2022, the project builds a robust system capable of
analyzing team and player performances, match conditions, and other influencing factors.
The system employed data preprocessing, feature engineering, exploratory data analysis
(EDA), and predictive modeling to achieve high accuracy in its predictions. Random Forest
emerged as the best-performing individual model, while ensemble learning techniques
achieved the highest overall accuracy. Additionally, K-Means clustering provided valuable
insights into player performance by grouping them into distinct performance-based clusters.
Key Findings:
1. Feature Importance: Toss outcomes, venue, team form, and player performance
were among the most influential features in predicting match outcomes.
2. Performance Trends: Historical data revealed the dominance of specific teams (e.g.,
Mumbai Indians and Chennai Super Kings) and identified consistent performers.
3. Model Efficacy: The best model (ensemble learning) achieved an accuracy of 87%,
demonstrating the system's effectiveness in forecasting match results.
The analysis and predictions provide actionable insights for cricket analysts, teams, and fans,
enhancing their understanding of the game's dynamics. This project highlights the potential of
machine learning in sports analytics, setting a foundation for more advanced and real-time
prediction systems.

6.2 Future Work

While the project achieves significant milestones, there are several avenues for improvement
and extension. Future work can focus on the following:
6.2.1 Real-Time Match Predictions
• Integration of Live Data: Incorporating live match data, such as ball-by-ball updates
and player form changes, can enable real-time prediction capabilities.
• Dynamic Updates: Use streaming data frameworks to dynamically update
predictions as the game progresses.
6.2.2 Advanced Modeling Techniques
• Deep Learning Models: Explore Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) or Long Short-
Term Memory Networks (LSTMs) to handle sequential and time-series data, such as
ball-by-ball information.
• Transformers: Utilize transformer-based architectures like BERT or GPT for
extracting context-aware insights from match summaries or live commentary.
6.2.3 Expanded Dataset
• Inclusion of Additional Seasons: As the IPL continues, incorporating new data can
improve model accuracy and adaptability to emerging trends.
• External Factors: Add external features such as weather conditions, crowd influence,
and match stakes (e.g., playoffs vs. regular season).
6.2.4 Addressing Class Imbalance
• Use techniques like oversampling, undersampling, or Synthetic Minority
Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) to balance win-loss outcomes, especially for
newer teams with fewer matches.
6.2.5 Enhanced Visualization

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 • Interactive Dashboards: Develop dashboards for users to visualize player statistics,
team performance, and match predictions.
• Scenario Analysis: Allow users to simulate hypothetical scenarios (e.g., changing
team compositions) to understand potential outcomes.
6.2.6 Player-Level Analytics
• Expand the clustering framework to analyze individual player contributions under
specific match conditions, such as high-pressure situations or different pitch types.
• Introduce sentiment analysis using social media or news data to gauge player
confidence and fan expectations.
6.2.7 Broader Applications
• Extend the system to other T20 leagues, such as the Big Bash League (BBL) and
Pakistan Super League (PSL), or other cricket formats like ODIs and Tests.
• Explore applications beyond match predictions, such as optimizing team strategies or
identifying talent in upcoming players.

Summary
This project lays a solid foundation for data-driven IPL match predictions, achieving high
accuracy and providing meaningful insights. The scope for future work emphasizes
scalability, real-time analytics, and advanced modeling techniques, ensuring that the system
remains relevant and effective as the game evolves. By addressing these areas, the project has
the potential to become an indispensable tool for cricket analytics and sports enthusiasts
worldwide.

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 7.Bibliography
• Raschka, S., & Mirjalili, V. (2019). Python Machine Learning: Machine Learning
and Deep Learning with Python, scikit-learn, and TensorFlow 2. Birmingham: Packt
Publishing.
• This book provided a foundation for understanding machine learning algorithms and
their implementation using Python, specifically scikit-learn.
• Manning, C. D., Raghavan, P., & Schütze, H. (2008). Introduction to Information
Retrieval. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• The concepts of text preprocessing, feature extraction, and vectorization (like TF-
IDF) discussed in this book were crucial in preparing the IPL datasets.
• Sebastian Raschka. (2020). Understanding Random Forests: From Theory to
Implementation.
• This article explained the theory behind Random Forests, which was applied as one of
the primary models in the project.
• Zhang, L., & Wang, S. (2020). "Fine-Tuning Pretrained Transformers for Text
Classification." Proceedings of the 58th Annual Meeting of the Association for
Computational Linguistics, 9-15.
• While this paper focuses on deep learning, the insights gained about model fine-
tuning inspired future exploration of deeper models for prediction tasks.
• O'Sullivan, D. (2020). Machine Learning for Text: A Comprehensive Guide to Data
Science for Text Classification. New York: Springer.
• This resource offered valuable guidance on implementing text classification models,
specifically for feature engineering and model evaluation.
• Kaggle IPL Datasets. (n.d.). Kaggle IPL Dataset. Retrieved from
https://www.kaggle.com/datasets
• This dataset provided the raw match-level and ball-by-ball data for the analysis. It was
a primary source for training and testing the machine learning models.
• Scikit-learn Documentation. (n.d.). Scikit-learn User Guide. Retrieved from
https://scikit-learn.org/stable/user_guide.html
• Scikit-learn's official documentation was referenced extensively for the
implementation of various machine learning algorithms, including Random Forest,
Logistic Regression, and SVM.
• B. S. (2023). "Understanding Stemming and Lemmatization." DataCamp Community.
Retrieved from https://www.datacamp.com/community/tutorials/stemming-
lemmatization-python
• This tutorial was helpful in understanding and implementing text preprocessing
techniques, specifically stemming, which was applied to normalize player and match
data.
• Cohen, J. (2021). "The Role of Natural Language Processing in Fake News
Detection." Journal of Machine Learning Research, 22(1), 1-15.
• Though primarily focused on fake news detection, the techniques discussed for text
classification and feature extraction were applied to predict match outcomes using
textual data.
• K. D. O. G. J. N. P. (2018). "Fake News Detection on Social Media: A Data Mining
Perspective." ACM SIGKDD Explorations Newsletter, 19(1), 22-36.
• This paper provided insights into the use of machine learning for predicting binary
outcomes, which influenced the approach for predicting match winners.
• Shang, Y., et al. (2020). "Deep Learning Approaches to Predicting Sports
Outcomes." International Journal of Sports Analytics, 5(2), 34-49.

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• The study of deep learning applications in sports outcome prediction inspired the
inclusion of machine learning models such as Random Forest and SVM.
• Towards Data Science. (2018). "TF-IDF: A Comprehensive Explanation." Retrieved
from https://towardsdatascience.com/tf-idf-a-comprehensive-explanation-
1c094499e332
• This article clarified the concept of TF-IDF, which was utilized for feature extraction
in the textual data, improving the feature set for match prediction.

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