Hydropower Engineering / Lecture Note ASTU/WRE – 2024/25

Chapter 2
2. Estimation of Water Power Potential
2.1. Hydraulic and Hydrologic Analysis of hydropower
Hydraulic Theory
Considering hydraulic theory in hydropower engineering, it is important to relate the concept of
power to the fundamental variables of head and discharge. As one approach for developing the
necessary theory, figure 2.1 illustrates certain physical and mathematical concept
Energy-work approach:
Work (W) = Force x Distance in the direction of force
Work = weight of water x the distance it falls,
𝐖 = 𝛒𝐖 𝐕𝐖 𝐠𝐡
Where: ρw is density of water;
g- Acceleration due to gravity;
Vw- Volume of water falling;
h- The vertical distance the water falls.
It is conventional in hydropower computations to treat h as the effective head that is utilized in
producing power.

Figure 2-1: - Diagram for developing turbine theory

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Effective head (h) is the difference between energy head at the entrance to the turbine and the
energy head at the exit of the draft tube. The h has been purposely designated as slightly below
the headwater or Forebay level. Hence, in the Figure, the losses of head in the water moving
through the penstock to the entrance of the turbine have been accounted for in positioning the
elemental cube.
 Power (P) = Work / time
W  V gh
P = = w w =  wQgh
t t
V
Note Q = w
t
Where Q is discharge.
P is in watt. To compare kilowatts and horsepower remember that:
Pkw = 0.746 Php

 Estimating head [h]

Mathematical development in terms of energy grade lines and hydraulic grade lines, using the
Energy Equation.

v12 p1 v2 p
+ + z1 = 2 + 2 + z 2 + h f = Cons.
2g  2g 

Figure 2-2: - Bernoulli diagram relating energy grade line and hydraulic grade line

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Where: - V1 = water velocity at point 1

p1 = pressure at point 1
γ = ρg = specific weight of water
Z1 = potential head at point 1 referenced to the datum
V2 =water velocity at point 2
p2 =pressure at point 2
Z2 =potential head at point 2
hf = head loss in flow passage between points 1 and 2

Figure 2-3: - Bernoulli diagram for a hydropower installation

Referring to the Figure, 3-14 the Energy equation for a hydropower installation is first written
between point 1 at the surface of the fore bay and point 2 at the entrance to the turbine as
v12 p1 v2 p
+ + z1 = 2 + 2 + z 2 + h f ... (1)
2g  2g 
Then the Energy equation is written between points 2 and 3, the surface of the water at the exit to
the draft tube:
v22 p2 v32 p3
+ + z2 = + + z3 + h... (2)
2g  2g 
Where h is effective head on the turbine

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Recognizing that for practical purposes v1, p1, and p3 are equal to zero, then solving for p2/γ in
Eq. 1, the result is:
p2 v22
= z1 − − z 2 − h f ... (3)
 2g

v22 p2 v32 v22  v22  v2

h= + + z2 − − z3 = 
+ z1 − − z2 − h f  + z 2 − 3 − z3
2g  2g 2 g  2g  2g
v32
h = z1 − z3 − h f − ...(4)
2g
Because the Energy equation defines terms in units of Kilogram –meter per Kilogram of water
flowing through the system, it should be recognized that the Kilograms of water flowing through
the turbine per unit of time by definition is ρgq. Now recognizing that energy per unit of time is
power, it is simple to calculate by multiplying Eq. (4) and ρgq or γq to obtain the theoretical
power delivered by the water to the turbine as γqh, which is the theoretical power

2.1.1. Hydrologic Analysis of Hydropower Development

All planning in hydrology terms is predicted on the assumption that the past history of water
occurrence will be repeated in future. In other words, plans for control and use of water are based
on the assumption that the precipitation and stream flow conditions, which have been observed
in the past, can be expected to occur, within reasonable limits of similarity, in the future, except
if stream flows are modified by acts of man. Obviously, the ideal foundation for water resources
planning would be comprehensive records, covering an infinite period of years, of precipitation
and other climatic conditions, stream flows and groundwater conditions. Unfortunately, such
records seldom exist, and the records that are available in most instance fall far short of the ideal.
The generation of hydropower does not imply consumption of water except because of incidental
evaporation, especially from reservoirs. The extent to which power production will affect the use
of water for other purposes will depend on a number of factors such as:
the location and capacity of power plants
the nature of power to be produced, that is, ROR power, firm power [peaking power]
and the relative preference assigned to the uses of water for various purposes
Hydrological data: - `historical series of daily or monthly flows
Rainfall data: - historical series of daily, monthly or annual total of rainfall

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Determination of the head for a proposed hydropower plant is a surveying problem that identifies
elevations of water surfaces as they are expected to exist during operation of the hydropower
plant.
In some reconnaissance studies, good contour maps may be sufficient to determine the
value for the hydraulic head.
Because the headwater elevation and tail water elevations of the impoundment can
vary with stream flow, it is frequently necessary to develop headwater and tail water
curves that show variation with time, river discharge, or operational features of the
hydropower project.
Earlier it was pointed out that the principal parameters necessary in making hydropower studies
are water discharge and hydraulic head, the measurement and analyses of these parameters are
primarily hydrologic problems. Hence, to identify the vertical distance between the levels of
water in the fore bay or headwater of the hydro-plant and in the tailrace, where the water issues
from the draft tube at the outlet to the turbine is part of a hydrologic problem. Thus, the
determination of the potential head for a proposed hydropower plant is a surveying problem that
identifies elevations of water surfaces as they are expected to exist during operation of the hydro-
plant; Because the headwater elevation and tail water elevations of the impoundment can vary
with stream flow, it is frequently necessary to develop headwater and tail water curves that show
variation with time, river discharge, or operational features of the hydropower project.

 The water discharge is a much more difficult problem to cope with because the flow
in streams is normally changing throughout the length of the stream as tributary
streams increase the flow and some diversion water uses decrease the flow.
Similarly, the flow changes from one time to another due to hydrologic variation
caused by the variation in precipitation, evaporation, and groundwater recharge that
affects the magnitude of stream flow.

Flow Duration Studies:

A useful way of treating the time variability of water discharge data in hydropower studies is by
utilizing flow duration curves. A flow duration curve is a plot of flow versus the percent of time
a particular flow can be expected to be exceeded. A flow duration curve merely reorders the
flows in order of magnitude instead of the time ordering of flows versus time plot.

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Methods of computing:
Rank-ordered technique
Class-interval technique

Figure 2-4: - Flow Duration Curve [FDC]

The rank-ordered technique

Considers a total time series of flows that represent equal increments of time for each
measurement value, such as mean daily, weekly, or monthly flows, and ranks the flows
according to magnitude. The rank-ordered values are assigned individual order numbers, the
largest beginning with order 1. The order numbers are then divided by the total number in the
record and multiplied by 100 to obtain the percent of time that the mean flow has been equaled
or exceeded during the period of record being considered. The flow value is then plotted versus
the respective computed exceedance percentage. Naturally, the longer the record, the more
statistically valuable the information that results.

The class-interval technique

The class-interval technique: is slightly different in that, the time series of flow values are
categorized into class intervals. The classes range from the highest flow value to the lowest value
in the time series. A tally is made of the number of flows in each, and by summation, the number
of values greater than a given upper limit of the class can be determined. The total number of
flow values in the data series to obtain the exceedance percentage can divide the number of flows
greater than the upper limit of a class interval. The value of the flow for the particular upper limit
of the class interval is then plotted versus the computed exceedance percent.
Characteristics of Flow Duration Curves
The flow duration curve (FDC) shows how flow is distributed over a period (usually a
year).

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A steep flow duration curve implies a flashy catchment – one that is subject to extreme
floods and droughts.
Factors which cause a catchment to be flashy are:
▪ Rocky, shallow soil,
▪ Lack of vegetation cover,
▪ Steep, short streams,
▪ Uneven rainfall (frequent storms, long dry periods).
Such type of FDC (i.e. steep) is bad for hydropower development (especially ROR type).
A flat FDC is good because it means that the total annual flow will be spread more
evenly over the year, giving a useful flow for longer periods, and less severe floods.
The selection of the time interval for FDC depends on the purpose of the study. As the time
interval increases the range of the curve decreases (see Fig.). While daily flow rates of small
storms are useful for the pondage studies in a run-off river power development plant, monthly
flow rates for a number of years are useful in power development plants from a large storage
reservoir. The flow duration curve is actually a river discharge frequency curve and the longer
the period of record, the more accurate is the indication of the long-term yield of a stream

The flow duration curve is actually a river discharge frequency curve and the longer the period of
record, the more accurate is the indication of the long-term yield of a stream. Since the area
under the curve represents the volume of flow, the storage will affect the flow duration curve as
shown by the dashed line in the Fig.; i.e., reducing the extreme Flows and increasing the very
low flows.

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Figure 2-5: - Power Duration curve and flow duration curve

Flow duration curve, very often, plotted using the average monthly values of the flow. The
capacity estimate for firm power is then made by using the entire recorded flow data and plotting
in a single flow duration curve.
In such a case, two different methods are in use.
 The total period method, and
 The calendar year method.
Both methods utilize the flow data available for the entire period for which records are available.
Total period method: the entire available record is used for drawing the FDC. Thus, ten
years’ record would produce 120 values of monthly average flows. These are first tabulated
in the descending order starting from the driest month in the entire period and ending with
the wettest month of the ten-year duration. The FDC would then be drawn with the help of
120 values.
Calendar year method: each year’s average monthly values are first arranged in ascending
order. Then the average flow values corresponding to the driest month, second driest month,
and so on up to the wettest month are found out by taking arithmetic mean of all values of the
same rank. These average values are then used for plotting flow duration curve. Such a curve
would have only twelve points.
The total period method gives more correct results than the calendar year method,
which averages out extreme events.

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Extrapolation of flow data to ungauged sites

Most of the time the stream flow data might not be available at the location for which a
hydropower site analysis is to be made. Methods are required to develop extrapolations of
measured flow duration data which will be representative of a given site on a stream.
This type of analysis is particularly useful
The procedure is to make plots of flow duration curves for all gauged streams within
homogeneous drainage basin. From these flow duration curves a family of parametric duration
curvesin which flow (Q) is plotted against the average annual runoff for several exceedance
percentages.A separate curve is developed for each exceedance interval used. A correlation
analysis then performed to obtain the best-fitting curve for the data taken from the measured
records of stream flow. The result is a parametric flow duration curve.

Dischage capacity of the plant

The discharge of the plant can pass at its fullgate openinig of the runner of the turbine under the
design head. In the figure below Qc is the discharge capacity of the plant under the design head.
This Qc is the discharge at full gate opening of the runner under design head. Even though to the
left of Qc on the flow duration curve the stream discharge is greater, it is not possible to pass the
higher discharge through the plant. If the reservoir or storage is full, water must be bypassed by a
spillway. To the right of the runner discharge capacity point, Qc, it should be noted that all the
water that can go through the turbine is the amount flowing in the river at the particular percent
of that point. This shows that full-rated power production will not be produced. With storage it is
possible to alter this for short periods of time, but the total amount of energy output can not be
increased. If hydraulic head and the expected losses in the penstock are known, it is possible to
generate a power duration curve from the flow duration curve.

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Figure 2-6: - Flow duration curve showing discharge capacity value

Figure 2-7: - Power duration curve

Determination of Average Annual Discharge

To use the parametric flow duration curves effectively, it is necessary to determine the average
annual discharge, Q , at the point or location on the stream for which a hydropower analysis is to
be made.
A procedure for making that determination follows
First an accurate isohyetal map of normal annual precipitation (NAP) of the river basin involved
must be obtained or developed. Isohyetal maps contain lines representing equal precipitation for
a geographic region. Care should be taken that the map represents the same period of record as
the stream flow data for which flow duration data are available and needed.

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Then, utilizing the records of average annual precipitation input to the basins at measured
streams nearby or having similar hydrologic characteristics, a runoff coefficient is estimated for
the drainage basin being studied. This value can be rather subjective in determination and thus
represents a place for making a considerable error. The product of this coefficient and the
computed normal annual precipitation input to the basin and the basin area can be used to
calculate the average annual discharge using the formula:
Q = kPA,
Where: Q is average annual discharge
k is annual runoff coefficient as a decimal value
P is weighted average annual precipitation,
A is drainage area.

Figure 2-8: - FDC for gauging stations in a homogeneous drainage basin

2.1.2. Other Hydrological Consideration

Rresidual, reserved or compensation flow

An uncontrolled abstraction of water from a watercourse, to pass it through a turbine, even if it is

returned to the stream close to the intake, could lead to sections of the watercourse being left almost
dry with serious results for aquatic life. To avoid this happening, permission to divert water through
a hydro turbine or a license to abstract from a river or stream will usually specify that a certain
residual flow should remain.

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It is in the interest of the hydropower developer to keep the residual flow as small as is acceptable to
the licensing authority, since in seasons of low flow, its release may mean generation being stopped
if there is insufficient discharge to provide for the turbine. On the other hand, the lack of flowing
water can endanger the life of the aquatic biota

Figure 2-9: - Residual, reserved or compensation flow:

Tail water Relationships

As release of water over spillways and other releases in to the stream immediately below a
hydropower plant are made, the tail water elevation below the outlet to the turbine will fluctuate.
Therefore, it is important to develop a tail water elevation versus discharge curve over the
complete range of flow that is to be expected. Preparing such a curve requires an adequate
contour map of the channel area and an estimation of velocity in the channel at various stages of
flow. Information on normal tail water, maximum tail water, and minimum tail water elevations
is necessary to determine design head and the appropriate turbine setting. Estimating stream
channel velocity can be made using slope-area calculations that involve Manning‘s equation.
Area Capacity Curves
Most hydropower developments involve an impoundment behind a dam. The water in storage in
the impoundment is released; the headwater elevation changes and this will influence the design
of the plant and the pattern of operation. Therefore, it is necessary to have a storage or pondage
volume versus impounding surface elevation curve. At the same time, there is a need to know
surface area versus reservoir elevation.

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This information can be obtained by planmetering a contour map of the reservoir area & making
necessary water volume calculations and water surface area determinations. The two curves are
typically combined into what is termed an area-capacity curve.

Figure 2-10: - Typical area-capacity curve

Reservoir Rule Curves

When releases from reservoir are made, the schedule of releases is often dictated by
considerations other than just meeting the flow demands for power production. The needs for
municipal water supply, for flood control, and for downstream irrigation, use dictates certain
restraints. The restraints are conventionally taken care of by developing reservoir operation rule
curves that can guide operating personnel in making necessary changes in reservoir water
releases. To be effective, rule curves often require the use of rather careful and extensive
reservoir operation studies using historical flow data and estimates of demand for water that are
likely to occur in the future.
Evaporation Loss Evaluation
Where there is a reservoir involved in a hydropower development there is need to assess the
effect of evaporation loss from the reservoir surface. This loss in warmer climate is considerable.
Spillway Design Flood Analysis
Many hydropower developments require a dam or a diversion that blocks the normal river flow.
This then requires that provision be made for passing flood flows. Spillway design flood,
analysis treats a unique type of hydrology that concerns the occurrence of rare events of extreme
flooding. Flood frequency analysis is a well-defined procedure for spillway design flood
determination.

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It is customary on large dams and dams where failure might cause a major disaster to design the
spillway to pass the probable maximum flood. For small dams, spillways are designed to pass a
standard project flood.

2.2. Water Power Potential

It is essential to assess the inherent power available from the discharge of a river and the head
available at the site before any power plant is contemplated. The gross head of any proposed scheme
can be assessed by simple surveying techniques, whereas hydrological data on rainfall and runoff
are essential in order to assess the available water quantities. The following hydrological data are
necessary:
 The daily, weekly or monthly flow over a period of several years, to determine the plant
capacity & estimated output.
 Low flows, to assess the primary, firm, or dependable power.
The potential or theoretical power in any river stretch with a difference in elevation H is
computed from:
Pp =   Q  H
Which is a power that can be required for useful work by overcoming friction loss in watts.
Where
H = head in m
Q = discharge of streams in m3/s
Pp= Potential (theoretical) power of the stream in KW
 =   g ➔γ = ρ.g/1000 = 9.81 KN/m3
Actually, g varies between 9.768 m/s2 at equator to 9.83 m/s2 at the poles (according to latitude)
and according to local condition i.e. altitude, varies between -0.2 to –0.4 cm/s2 in average -0.31
cm/s2 per 1000m above sea level, see Mosonyi, E. (1987). Generally, an average value of
9.81m/s2 is used. The above equation neglects the difference in kinetic energy term. In low land
rivers, with large magnitude of discharge and low head as in the runoff plants, neglecting the
energy from this term may mean neglecting significant energy term.
From the above relationship:
Pp= γ.Q.H (KW) = 9.81 Q.H (KW)

Since: -
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1 hp = 736 Watts
Pp= 13.33 Q.H (hp
The hydraulic power P given by
P = η. γ.Q.H = 9.81 η.Q.H (KW)
Where η = is the total efficiency
If the river course is divided in to a number of n stretches, the total power can be described by:
n
P =   (Q  H )
1

From the available stream flow data, one can obtain flow duration curve of the stream for a given
site by plotting the discharge against the percentage duration of the time for which it is available.
Similarly, power duration curve can be plotted since power is directly proportional to the discharge
and available head.

Figure 2-11: - Stream flow hydrograph

Figure 2-12: - Flow\Power duration curve (Power scale multiplying factor = 9.81 η.H)

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Potential power resources can be characterized by values according to the discharge taken as a basis
of computation. The conventional discharges are Q100, Q95, Q50, and Qm. Thus, we have,
Minimum potential power: designated Pp100, computed from the minimum flow that is
available for 100% of the time (365 days or 8760 hrs.)
Small potential power: computed from the flow available for 95% of the time. This
represented by Pp95
Median potential power: it computed from the flow available for 50% of time. Pp 50
represents this.
Mean potential power: it computed from the average of mean yearly flows for a period of
10 to 30 years. This is designated as Ppm and is also known as gross power potential.
Technically Available Power
Evaluation of technically available power from the available power is significance. According to
Mossony the losses subtracted from the Pp values represents an upper limit of utilization.
Losses = Conveyance loss + plant losses (entrance, rack, generator, turbine)
According to F.I. Nestruck
Conveyance efficiency = 70% and Overall plant efficiency = 80%
Total multiplying factor = 0.56 to be used with average potential power Pp 50. Therefore, technically
available power Pa = 0.56 Pp 50. The multiplying factor depends up on the type of development. I.e.
run-of-river plant, high head plant, etc. Nestruck also suggested that a coefficient of 2.5 to be used
for estimating the potential average waterpower from the 95% potential water power i.e. Pp 50 = 2.5
Pp 95. Waterpower is also characterized by annual values of potential energy in a river i.e. by
quantities of work expressed in KW hours & named as E95, E50, Em, etc. The maximum potential
energy of a river section is thus:
Emax. = 8760 Pm KWh
The upper value of net power capable of being developed technically computed from the potential
waterpower by introducing reduction factors to account for losses in conveyance & in energy
conversion. The EEC puts the factor to be about 0.75 to 0.80. Thus
Pm net = (7.4 to 8.0) Qm H (KW) for γ = 10
Where Qm is arithmetic mean discharge.
Therefore, Em net = 8760 Pm net (KWh)

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2.3. Firm and Secondary Power/ Electrical Load on Hydro-turbines

The power demand is defined as the total load, which consumers choose, at any instant of time, to
connect to the supplying power system.
Load curve

Figure 2-13: - Definition Sketch of Load Curve

N.B. Maximum demand determines the size of the plant and its cost.
Highest instantaneous value of demand is, strictly speaking, the peak load or peak demand.
Generally, however, peak load is defined as that carried at intensity greater than 4/3 times the
average load intensity.

Base Load: the total load continuously exceeded, whereas the average load is the area under the
curve divided by the time.

Load factor: the ratio of average load to the peak load and is expressed as a daily, weekly, monthly
or yearly value. The area under a load curve is energy (KWh) and it can be plotted to obtain energy
consumption curve. Thus, the load factor can also be defined as:
Average load over a certian period (Say 24hrs)
Load Factor =
Max(Peak)load during that period (say 24hrs. )
Max. Load - determines plant capacity
Load factor - gives an idea of degree of utilization of capacity. Thus, an annual load factor of say
0.4 indicates that the machines are producing only 40% of their yearly maximum production
capacity.

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Capacity factor: - also called plant use factor or plant factor

Example: - If a plant with capacity of 100 MW produces 6,000,000 KWh operating for 100 hrs, its
capacity factor will be

The capacity factor for hydroelectric plant is generally b/n 0.25 & 0.75.
If the peak load = plant capacity, then capacity factor = load factor. If the plant is not used to its full
capacity, then load factor ≠ capacity factor. Thus in the above example if the max. Load was 75
MW instead of 100 MW then

For hydroelectric plants, this factor varies from 0.4 to 0.9 depending on plant capacity, load factor &
storage.
Load Duration Curve
This is a curve of load vs percentage of time this load or higher occurs. It is usually plotted for long
duration such as a year.

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Figure 2-14: - Definition Sketch of Firm Power

Area under load duration curve = total energy production during the period. Thus: -

Firm Power: Also, called primary power is the power, which always ensured to a consumer at any
hour of the day and is thus completely dependable power. Such a power corresponds to the
minimum stream flow and is available for all times.

Figure 2-15: - Definition Sketch of Firm/Primary and Secondary Power

Firm power can be increased by use of (storage).

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Figure 2-16: - Increased Firm Power by Pondage

2.4. Load Predictions and Demand Assessment
2.4.1. Base Load - Peak Load
Power is needed for a variety of purposes, such as domestic, commercial, industrial, municipal,
agricultural, public transport etc. The energy demand (local, regional, Trans regional) is subject
to considerable temporal fluctuations. These variations could be from hour to hour within a day,
from day to day within a week/month, from month to month within a year, etc.

These seasonal fluctuations depend on:

 Weather, season;
 Vacation times;
 Cyclical business activity.
Daily fluctuations are due to:
 Rhythm of work time and free time;
 Weather;
 Traffic.
A typical load curve, daily load curve is shown in Figure 2.17.

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Figure 2-17: -Typical Daily Load Curve

At certain times, the demand may reach the highest value, known as the peak-load. This
maximum demand usually determines the size of a plant. Generally, the peak-load is defined as
that part of the load carried at intensity greater than 4/3 times the mean load intensity. To cover
the fluctuating energy demand. The following types of power plants are interconnected to each
other’s and work together:
Base load power stations (coal, oil, nuclear and run-of-river scheme power stations);
Average load power stations (temporary, gas and reservoir power stations);
Peak load power stations (pumped storage and peak load hydro power stations).
Base load power stations having high utilization times, they produce electric energy on a very
economical basis. The energy prime costs of peak load power stations are higher due to shorter
utilization times; their emphasis lies on instant availability. These differences affect considerably
the price of base load and peak load power. Hydropower potential is commonly divided into
three categories:
 Theoretical:is the sum of the potential of all natural flows from the largest rivers to the
smallest, regardless of the inevitable losses and unfeasible sites.
 Technical:From technical point of view, extremely low heads (less than around 0.5m) are
considered as infeasible.
 Economic:Economic potential is only that part of the potential of more favorable sites,

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2.4.2. Load Prediction

For the installation of a new power plant or for the expansion of the existing power plant, it is
necessary to estimate the total amount of load that would be required to be met for various
purposes. The economics of the installation or expansion of a power plant calls for the correct
prediction or forecasting of the power demand. Load forecasting may be done either for short-
term (< 5 years), or medium-term (around 10 years), or long-term (> 20 years) periods. The
short-term forecasting is usually done for operation planning of existing power plants, while the
medium-term forecast is the basis for expansion program of power generation facilities. The
long-term forecast helps in the formulation of the country’s perspective plan for power
generation. There are three basic load-forecasting techniques:
Trend analysis
End-use analysis
Econometric analysis
Each of the forecasting methods uses a different approach to determine electricity demand during
a specific year in a particular place. Each forecasting method is distinctive in its handling of the
four basic forecast ingredients. The mathematical expressions of the relationship between power
demand and the factors, which influence or affect it – the functions. The factors which actually
influence the power demand (population, income, price, etc.) – the independent variables. Power
demand itself – the dependent variables; and how much power demand changes in response to
population, income, price, etc., changes – the elasticities.
Trend Analysis:
Trend analysis extends past growth rates of power demand into the future. It focuses on past
changes or movements in demand and uses them to predict future changes in the demand. The
advantage of trend analysis is that it is simple, quick and inexpensive to perform. It is useful
when there is no enough data to use methods that are more sophisticated or when time and
funding do not allow for a more elaborate approach. The disadvantage of trend analysis is that it
produces only one result – future power demand. It does not help analyze why power demand
behaves the way it does, and it provides no means to accurately measure how change in energy
prices or government policies, for instance, influence the demand.

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End-Use Analysis:
The basic idea of end-use analysis is that the demand for power depends on what it is used for
(the end-use). For instance, by studying historical data to find out how much power is used for
individual electrical appliances in homes. then multiplying that number by the projected number
of appliances in each home and multiplying again by the projected number of homes, an estimate
of how much power will be needed to run all household appliances in a geographical area during
any particular year in the future can be determined. Using similar techniques for power used in
business and industry, and then adding up the totals for residential, commercial, and industrial
sectors, a total forecast of power demand can be derived.

The advantage of end-use analysis is that it identifies exactly where power goes and how much
is used for each purpose.

The disadvantage of the end-use analysis is that it assumes a constant relationship between
power and end-use, for example, power used per appliance. Nevertheless, in actual case, energy
saving technology or energy prices will undoubtedly change with time, and the relationship will
not remain constant. End-use analysis also requires extensive data.

Econometric Analysis:
Econometric analysis uses economics, mathematics, and statistics to forecast power demand. It is
a combination of trend analysis and end-use analysis, but it does not make the trend analyst’s
assumption that future power demand can be projected based on past demand. Moreover, unlike
end-use method, it can allow for variations in the relationship between power input and end-use.
Econometric analysis uses complex mathematical equations to show past relationships between
demand and the factors, which influence the demand. For instance, an equation can show how
power demand in the past reacted to population growth, price changes, etc. For each influencing
factor, the equation can show whether the factor caused an increase or decrease in a power
demand. The equation is then tested and fine-tuned to make sure that it is a reliable a
representation as possible of the past relationships. Once this is done, projected values of
demand-influencing factors (population, income, prices) are put in to the equation to make the
load forecast.

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Hydropower Engineering / Lecture Note ASTU/WRE – 2024/25

The advantage of econometric analysis is that it provides detailed information on future levels
of power demand, why future power demand increases or decreases, and how power demand is
affected by all the various factors. In addition, it is flexible and useful for analyzing load growth
under different scenarios. The disadvantage of econometric forecasting is the assumption that
the changes in the power demand caused by changes in the factors influencing that demand
remain the same in the forecast period as in the past. However, this constant elasticity
assumption is hard to justify in reality.

Note:
 Load forecasts should be interpreted as rough indications of the reasonable
range of possible outcomes of power growth, rather than precise computations
of future power consumption.
 Often it is necessary to develop a range of load growth projections that reflect
the uncertainty associated with many of the factors that influence load growth.
Then, the mid-range forecast will be used as the basis for planning and the
high and low growth scenarios will be utilized for sensitivity studies.

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