B115025 FiGS Policy Brief

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*Exam number B115025

*Course Name Foundations in Global Security
*Essay title On Continuing Support for Ukraine Against Russian
Aggression
*Word Count 1386
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On Continuing Support for Ukraine Against
Russian Aggression
Executive Summary
With regards to the ongoing war in Ukraine, I strongly recommend that the
American government continue providing material support as long as the war remains
a conventional one. American weapons have proven themselves to be vital to
Ukrainian successes in the field and further support will ensure a victory over the
Russian Federation. The United States’ interests are best served through ensuring a
Ukrainian victory. This reassures our eastern allies, weakens one of our main
geopolitical rivals, and encourages the Ukrainian people to see the United States and
our allies as natural friends and allies against further Russian aggression. Escalation
to direct intervention would be unnecessary and could provoke nuclear conflict. A
reduction in support would be deeply damaging to perceptions of American
trustworthiness and would only strengthen a state which has proven itself to be a
threat to world peace.
Situation Brief
The Ukrainian military has benefited tremendously from western assistance.
Without the provided aid, it is questionable if and where they would have been able to
halt the Russian advance. Most of the materiel provided so far has been limited to
western artillery and light vehicles and donations of modernised Soviet equipment
from the former Eastern Bloc. We are now faced with the question of where to go
from here as stocks in those states begin to run low. Some people have suggested that
we are already sending too much assistance to Ukraine. Others think that we should
maintain materiel support. Still others want us to intervene more directly in the
conflict.
As an example of the impact that American weapons have had, consider the
Ukrainian use of the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). HIMARS’
performance has demonstrated their power as both physical and psychological
weapons. Confirmed losses of Russian materiel since the initial delivery on June 23rd
have increased dramatically and reports from the field indicate that Russian artillery
effectiveness was almost immediately reduced. Interviews with POWs, social media
posts by Russian soldiers, and statements by official Russian media outlets indicate
that the presence of HIMARS is a cause for panic among soldiers on the ground. Any
sort of precision artillery attack is called ‘HIMARS’ regardless of the source,
indicating a distinct fear of the system similar to the ‘Tiger terror’ of the second world
war. This is reenforced by the excessive kill claims of the Russian military which
have reached more than 300% of the units shipped to Ukraine.
Policy Options
We have three broad options: direct intervention, continued material support,
or abandonment.
Direct intervention would involve the deployment of US or NATO troops into

combat with Russian forces ranging from the enforcement of a no-fly zone to ground
combat. There is limited support for this option, but I cannot recommend it unless the
situation changes. A direct clash with the Russian military carries an unacceptably
high risk of escalation into a nuclear exchange.
In the event that the Russian government acts on its threats of nuclear attack
against Ukraine, the calculus changes. The use of nuclear weapons to cover an
offensive war would pose an unacceptable risk of increasing nuclear proliferation.
We would not need to deploy our own nuclear weapons in response, however. The
Russian military has proven itself to be barely capable of opposing the Ukrainian
military and counterstrike with conventional forces would be sufficient to punish
Russia and demonstrate the cost of using a weapon of mass destruction. In this case I
would recommend a mass strike by the US Navy against all Russian forces in
Ukraine. The goal would be to force Vladimir Putin to choose between accepting a
conventional defeat or escalating to a full nuclear exchange. This would demonstrate
to any would-be conquerors that the west will not sit by and allow ourselves to be
cowed through the threat of nuclear weapons and would demonstrate the
consequences of such use.
Continued material support would involve little change from the status quo.
Arms and materiel would continue to flow from the United States to Ukraine. This
option carries minimal risk of escalation to non-conventional weapons by the Russian
military as they have not done so yet. The Armed Forces of Ukraine would likely
continue to make gradual progress at driving invading forces out of their country. So
long as proper protocols are maintained, there is no risk of large quantities of
American weapons ending up in the hands of non-state actors as happened in Iraq and
Afghanistan. The downside to this would be the continuing destruction of large parts
of Ukraine as well as the outside chance that the Russian government might feel
confident that the west would not intervene over a minor nuclear or chemical strike.
Abandonment should be considered an unacceptable option. Support for

Ukraine is both beneficial to American interests and intensely popular among the
electorate. The Russian Federation has shown itself to be an imperialist power with
dreams of reconquering the old Russian empire if their rhetoric is to be believed. As
long as they are occupied with fighting Ukraine, they are unable to threaten our allies
in Eastern Europe. Our commitment to the defence of Ukraine has also helped to
reassure those allies of our willingness to defend them in the event of continued
Russian expansionism in the region. Abandoning Ukraine now would undermine
trust in America’s willingness to uphold other safety guarantees. It would put
immense pressure on NATO, undoing all of the reinforcement that Russia’s actions
have provided. It would give a chance for a major geopolitical opponent to regroup
and possibly eke some form of victory out of an emerging disaster. And it would
embolden other geopolitical rivals in a show of weakness and irresoluteness.
Final Recommendation
My recommendation is that the United States should escalate material support
for Ukraine. We should send as much equipment to Ukraine as they can use and we
can spare. This should include our modern tanks and aircraft if the Ukrainian military
desires them. The donated stocks of Warsaw Pact equipment which have been
donated by former Eastern Bloc countries have been extremely helpful to Ukraine, but
they are a finite resource and are beginning to run low. The only way to ensure that
the Ukrainian military has the forces it requires to continue this war in the long term is
to begin equipping them with western military equipment and the United States is the
only country which can provide the necessary materiel in a timely fashion. Therefore,
I recommend that we immediately provide the Ukrainians with modern MBTs like the
Abrams and modern fighters like the F-15 and F-16 as soon as the Ukrainians are able
to field them. This poses the least risk of escalation while still advancing both
American interests and the interest of a peaceful, civilized world.
Additional Sources
For additional information, I recommend the following sources beyond what is
available through the various intelligence agencies and allied governments:
Institute for the Study of War (ISW): The ISW provides detailed analyses by
military or ex-military personnel. These are published daily and provide a
professional’s interpretation of the facts on the ground. ISW reports are thoroughly
verified before being published and provide an additional perspective on the conflict.
Ukrainian Ministry of Defence: The Ukrainian government publishes press

releases, kill claims, and other information through the Ministry of Defence. This
data is extremely useful and generally reliable. Even their estimated kill claims fall
into a reasonable range when compared with photo/video confirmed kills.
Open-source intelligence (OSINT): There are a number of groups and

individuals who sort and compile social media information, official reports, and raw
data from government and corporate sources. These people organize the information
that they collect and publish it in a variety of forms. Some of these OSINT sources
are highly unreliable and should be considered propaganda outlets. Other, such as
WarMonitor, are of limited reliability and only present information that has be
gathered without checking its accuracy. Some, however, are very reliable and
conduct significant accuracy checks such as relying only on photo/video confirmed
kill reports. The best of these sources at the time of writing is Oryx who is keeping a
tally of confirmed kills on both Ukrainian and Russian hardware. These cannot
substitute for proper, official intelligence but they are a powerful supplement.
Bibliography
Gould, Joe. “Pentagon Sending Excalibur Guided Artillery, More Himars to Ukraine.”
Defense News. Defense News, October 5, 2022.
https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/10/04/pentagon-sending-
excalibur-guided-artillery-more-himars-to-ukraine/.
Hird, Karolina, Grace Mappes, Layne Phillipson, George Barros, and Frederick W
Kagan. “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 24.” Institute for the
Study of War. Institute for the Study of War, July 24, 2022.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-
assessment-july-24.
Lopez, C Todd. “HIMARS, Excalibur Rounds Headed for Ukraine in $625 Million
Security Assistance Package.” U.S. Department of Defense. United State De-
partment of Defense, October 4, 2022. https://www.defense.gov/News/News-
Stories/Article/Article/3179784/himars-excalibur-rounds-headed-for-ukraine-in-
625-million-security-assistance-p/.
Ministry of Defence of Ukraine “The Total Combat Losses of the Enemy from 24.02
to 30.10.” Ministry of Defence of Ukraine. Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, Oc-
tober 30, 2022. https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2022/10/24/the-total-combat-
losses-of-the-enemy-from-24-02-to-30-10/.
Oryx. “Attack on Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses during the 2022
Russian Invasion of Ukraine.” Oryx. Oryx, October 28, 2022.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-
equipment.html.

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SPS Student Cover Sheet/ Feedback Sheet

*Indicated fields MUST be completed by student.

*Exam number B115025

This Section is for office use.

Major advice to student

Direct intervention would involve the deployment of US or NATO troops into

Abandonment should be considered an unacceptable option. Support for

Ukrainian Ministry of Defence: The Ukrainian government publishes press

Open-source intelligence (OSINT): There are a number of groups and

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