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Conditional Probability and Bayes Problems

Please enter your answers on the blanks provided. Please submit all work on additional pages.

Overdue Not overdue

1. The following table lists the joint probabilities New 0.03 0.1
associated with smoking and lung disease among 60-to-65 year- Old 0.49 0.38
old men. One 60-to-65 year old man is selected at One account is selected at random.
random. What is the probability of the following events? A. If the account is overdue, what is the probability that it is
new?
B. If the account is new, what is the probability that it is over-
Smoker Nonsmoker due?
Has Lung Disease 0.1 0.04
No Lung Disease 0.2 0.66 4. A foreman for an injection-molding firm admits that on
26% of his shifts, he forgets to shut off the injection machine
A. He is a smoker:_________ on his line. This causes the machine to overheat, increasing the
B. He does not have lung disease:__________ proba- bility that a defective molding will be produced during the
C. He has lung disease given that he is a smoker:________
early morning run from 3% to 25%. If a molding is
D. He has lung disease given that he does not
smoke_________ randomly selected from the early morning run of a random day,
what is the probability that it is defective?

2. Suppose that A and B are two independent events for Probability =

which P(A) = 0.31 and P(B) = 0.76. Find each of the
following:
5. A foreman for an injection-molding firm admits that on
41% of his shifts, he forgets to shut off the injection machine
A. P(A|B) =______
on his line. This causes the machine to overheat, increasing the
B. P(B|A) =______
proba- bility that a defective molding will be produced during the
C. P(A and B) =______
D. P(A or B) =_______ early morning run from 4% to 22%. The plant manager
randomly se- lects a molding from the early morning run and
discovers it is defective. What is the probability that the foreman
3. A firm has classified its customers in two ways:
forgot to shut off the machine the previous night?
according to whether the account is overdue and whether the
account is new (less than 12 months) or old. An analysis of
the firm’s records provided the input for the following table of Probability =
joint probabilities:

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 6. Determine all joint probabilities listed below from the 9. If P(A) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.2, and P(A ∪ B) = 0.4, then
following information:
P(A ∩ B) =_______
P(A) = 0.7, P(Ac ) = 0.3, P(B|A) = 0.4, P(B|Ac ) = 0.8
(a) Are events A and B independent? (enter YES or
P(A and B) = ___________ NO)______
P(A and not B)= P(A' and B)= __________
P(not A and not B ) = _______ (b) Are A and B mutually exclusive? (enter YES or
NO)_______

7. Bad gums may mean a bad heart. Researchers

discovered that 81% of people who have suffered a heart 10. According to the U.S. National Center for Education
attack had pe- riodontal disease, an inflammation of the gums. Statis- tics, there are more than 63 million American workers 18
Only 30% of healthy people have this disease. Suppose that in a years old and over who use computers at work. From this study,
certain com- munity heart attacks are quite rare, occurring which was conducted in 1994 and 1998 (Source: Statistical
with only 15% probability. Abstract of the United States, 2000, Table 690), the following
table of joint probabilities was developed.
A. If someone has periodontal disease, what is the probabil-
ity that he or she will have a heart attack? A. What proportion of workers use a spreadsheet?_________
B. What proportion of male workers use a spreadsheet?_____
Probability = Computer Usage
B. If 40% of the people in a community will have a heart Gender Uses Spreadsheet No Spreadsheet Use
attack, what is the probability that a person with periodontal Female 0.34 0.24
disease will have a heart attack? Male 0.2 0.22
Probability =

C.What proportion of spreadsheet users are female?_____

8. Two fair dice, one blue and one red, are tossed, and
the face on each die is recorded. Define the following
events: 11. A department store analyzed its most recent sales and
deter- mined the relationship between the way a customer paid
E : { A 1 on the blue die } for an item and the price category of the item. The joint
probabilities are given in the table below.
F : { The numbers are equal }

Find the following probabilities:

Cash Credit Card Debit Card
(a) P(E ) = Under 20 Dollars 0.09 0.04 0.03
20-100 Dollars 0.05 0.2 0.2
(b) P(F ) = Over 100 Dollars 0.01 0.26 0.12
A. What proportion of purchases were paid with a debit card?
(c) P(E ∩ F ) =
Proportion =
B. Find the probability that a credit card purchase was for
(d) P(E |F ) =
over 100 dollars.
Probability =
(e) P(F |E ) =
C. Determine the proportion of purchases made by credit
card or debit card.
(f) Are events E and F independent? Yes or No________
Proportion = _____
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 12. Your favorite team is in the World Series. You have 16. The owner of an appliance store is interested in the
assigned a probability of 63% that they will win the relation- ship between the price at which an item is sold
championship. Past records indicate that when teams win the (regular or sale price) and the customer’s decision on whether
championship, they win the first game of the series 73% of the to purchase and extended warranty. After analyzing her
time. When they lose the championship, they win the first game records, she produced the following joint probabilities:
26% of the time. The first game is over and your team has lost.
What is the probability that they will win the World Series?

Probability = Purchased Did not purchase

extended warranty extended warranty
Regular Price 0.21 0.51
13. Approximately 6% of people are left-handed. If two Sale Price 0.1 0.18
people are selected at random, what is the probability of the
following events? A. What is the probability that a customer who bought an
item at the regular price purchased the extended warranty?
Probability =
B. What is the probability that a customer buys an extended
A. P(Both are right-handed) = warranty?
B. P(Both are left-handed) = Probability =
C. P(One is right-handed, the other is left-handed) =
17. An aerospace company has submitted bids on two
D. P(At least one is right-handed) = separate federal government defense contracts. The company
president believes that there is a 40% probability of winning the
first con- tract. If they win the first contract, the probability of
14. Researchers at the University of Pennsylvania winning the second is 65%. However, if they lose the first
School of Medicine have determined that children under 2 contract, the pres- ident thinks that the probability of winning
years old who sleep with the lights on have a 31% chance of the second contract decreases to 49%.
becoming myopic before they are 16. Children who sleep in
darkness have a 26% probability of becoming myopic. A
survey indicates that 27% of children under 2 sleep with A. What is the probability that they win both contracts?
some light on. Find the proba- bility that a random child Probability =
under 2 will become myopic before reaching 16 years old. B. What is the probability that they lose both contracts?
Probability = _________ Probability =
C. What is the probability that they win only one contract?
Probability =

15. Suppose that at UVA, 76% of all undergraduates are in

the College, 10% are in Engineering, 7% are in Commerce, 3% 18. A telemarketer calls people and tries to sell them a
are in Nursing, and 4% are in Architecture. In each school, the subscrip- tion to a daily newspaper. On 21% of her calls, there
per- centage of females is as follows: 55% in the College, is no an- swer or the line is busy. She sells subscriptions to
25% in Engineering, 49% in Commerce, 87% in Nursing, and 8% of the remaining calls. For what proportion of calls does
35% in Architecture. If a randomly selected student is male, what she make a sale?
is the probability that he’s from the College?

Proportion =
Probability =

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 19. Transplant operations have become routine. One 20. For two events A and B, P(A) = 0.4 and P(B) = 0.1.
common transplant operation is for kidneys. The most dangerous
(a) If A and B are independent, then
aspect of the procedure is the possibility that the body may P(A|B) =_____P(A ∪ B) =_____P(A ∩ B) =______
reject the new organ. There are several new drugs available for
such cir- cumstances and the earlier the drug is administered, the (b) If A ,B are dependent and P(A|B) = 0.2,
higher the probability of averting rejection. The New England P(B|A) =_______P(A ∩ B) =_________
Journal of Medicine recently reported the development of a new
urine test to detect early warning signs that the body is
rejecting a transplanted kidney. However, like most other tests, 21. If A and B are two mutually exclusive events with P(A) =
the new test is not perfect. In fact, 20% of negative tests and 5% 0.35 and P(B) = 0.55, find the following probabilities:
of pos- itive tests prove to be incorrect. Physicians know that in
a) P(A ∩ B) =____
about 35% of kidney transplants the body tries to reject the
b) P(A ∪ B) =____
organ. If the new test has a positive result (indicating early
c) P(A)' =____
warning of rejection), what is the probability that the body is d) P(B)' =____
attempting to reject the kidney? e) P(A ∪ B)' =____
f) P(A ∩ B' ) =____
Probability = __________