Part 1: Current GDP and Sector Bifurcation:+

India is one of the fastest developing nations with visible growth in its economy, aiming to reach
high-middle class income status by 2047. The GDP of India reported in 2022 is 3.42 lakh crores
USD which will increase by 8.2% in FY 23/24.Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices is expected to
reach the level of 173 billion rupees. 82 lakh crore in the year 2023-24, against the FRE of GDP for
the year 2022-23 of ₹160. 71 lakh crore. Nominal GDP or GDP At Current Prices is likely to touch
the figure of ₹295. 36 lakh crore in the year 2023-24, against ₹269 lakh crore in FY 2022-23 and
₹240 lakh crore in FY 2019-20. 50 lakh crore in in 2022-23, that an an increase of growth rate of
9%. 6%. Actual GVA is calculated at ₹158 The nominal GVA has been calculated at ₹167. 74 lakh
crore in the year 2023-24, to the FRE for the year 2022-23 of ₹148. 05 lakh crore; it has a growth
rate of about 7 percent. Two percent as compared to Six percent respectively for urban ones. 7% in
2022- 23. Nominal GVA is estimated to reach the level of ₹ 267. Rs.62 lakh crore during the FY
2023-24, against ₹246. 59 lakh crore in 2022-23, with a growth rate of 8 per cent. 5%.

India has made significant progress in reducing extreme poverty, halving the population living
below $2.15 per day(2011-19). However the pace of poverty reduction has slowed because of the
pandemic COVID-19. Indias economic outlook is positiveThe government of India is focusing on
increasing capital spending, particularly on infrastructure to boost growth, job creation and global
competitiveness. Lately there has been a thriving startup ecosystem, with 113 unicorn startups valued
over $350 billion. The government is also emphasising companies to focus and adapt renewable
energy in manufacturing operations, like use of solar energy instead of coal. The government of
India is aiming to achieve 40% of its energy from non-fossil sources by 2030.

The fiscal deficit reduced from 13% in FY 20/21 to 9.4% in FY 22/23. The public debt is also
reduced from 87% to 83% of GDP between FY 20/21 and FY 22/23. Currently the service sector is
the largest sector of India. The Gross Value Added at current prices for the service sector is
estimated at 146.35 lakh crore INR in 2023/24 contributes 54.86% of total India’s GVA of 266.78
lakh crore INR, The industry sector with GVA of 73.5 lakh crore contributes 27.55% and the
Agricultural sector with GVA of 46.5 lakh crore INR contributes share of 17.59%. The Agriculture
sector's contribution to the Indian economy is much higher than the world's average (6.4%).

The industry and services sector's contribution is lower than the world's average 30% for the Industry
sector and 63% for the Services sector.To achieve this India needs to focus on climate friendly
growth, creating good jobs, and highlighting gaps in economic including women’s workforce
participation and upliftment. The World Bank is partnering with the government to achieve green,
resilient and inclusive development. Overall, India’s economy is growing rapidly, but it needs to
focus on sustainable and inclusive growth to achieve its aspirations. The government’s efforts to
increase investment in infrastructure, promote renewable energy and support startups are positive
steps towards achieving this goal.
 SOURCE:

● https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/india/overview#:~:text=In
%20FY22%2F23%2C%20India's%20real,particularly%20among%20higher
%20income%20earners.
● https://statisticstimes.com/economy/country/india-gdp-
sectorwise.php#google_vignette
● https://www.mospi.gov.in/sites/default/files/press_release/
PressNoteGDP31052024.pdf

Part 2: NDC Targets for 2030

Targets set by India for 2030 in relation to environmental sustainability and climate change:

During the 26th Conference of Parties (COP26) , India had pledged to set up its climate efforts in the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and it displayed Panchamrit (five nectar
elements) to the global community. In correlation to the “Panchamrit”, India's current NDC has
more ambitious climate targets in line with the "Panchamrit". This upgrade moves India closer to its
continuing objective of becoming net-zero by 2070.1

Emissions Reduction Targets :

● India’s aim is to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33-35% below 2005 levels by
2030. This goal shows India's commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions relative to
economic output.2
● To establish an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 corresponded by
elaborate forest and tree cover.
● The Indian government has introduced a few schemes as well as for programs to scale India’s
actions on adaptation and mitigation. Hence, India has progressively pursued decoupling of
economic growth from greenhouse gas emissions. For example, the Net Zero target by 2030
conducted by Indian Railways will lead to a depletion of emissions by 60 million tonnes
yearly. Also, India’s massive LED bulb campaign is reducing emissions by 40 million tonnes
yearly.

Renewable energy commitments :

● India is planning to implement low temperature Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell
(PEMFC) for the generation of stationary power and for vehicular applications.3

1 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1847812

2 https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-08/India%20Updated%20First%20Nationally%20Determined
%20Contrib.pdf

3 https://ksdma.karnataka.gov.in/storage/pdf-files/India%20INDC.pdf
 ● To meet up to 50% of the energy requisite from renewable sources by 2030.4
● Another way is to set up an extra carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 which will be
correlated by detailed forest and tree cover.

Other relevant aspects:

● To get better accustomed to climate change, more funding should be kept aside for
development projects in some sectors that are vulnerable to it, like health, water, agriculture,
the Himalayan region, coastal areas, and disaster management.
● The intensity of the emission has come down by 33% between the years 2005 and 2019.5

Primary Energy Consumption Pie-Chart

4 https://pwonlyias.com/indias-updated-ndcs/

5 https://www.pmfias.com/nationally-determined-contribution/
Data from :- https://cea.nic.in/installed-capacityreport/?lang

The next pie chart below represents a good, clear, and visual insight into the use of energy from
different sources as of April 2024. Slices of the pie stand for another energy source, all combined to
show variety and proportion in the consumption of energy from each of them.
The prominent position in this relation is held by coal, with its 47.6 percent energy share. That puts
the country at high dependency on coal—usually used for electricity generation because of its easy
accessibility and relative cheapness. However, strong reliance puts an environmental concern in the
foreground because of coal being one of the largest contributors to carbon emissions.
The second-biggest source is solar energy itself, at 18.7%. With this huge contribution that solar
energy can make comes increasing adoption of renewable energy technologies. It was made
accessible and thereby contributed significantly to the energy mix through increased efficiency and
declining costs for the panels.
It accounts for 10.2 percent of consumed energy, which is the third-biggest contribution. Much like
solar, it is a clean and renewable source that has grown hugely in the past years. A change of this
magnitude viewed in wind energy use depicts a global change in the sustainable use of energy.
Large hydroelectric power also consumes 10.6% of the total. Hydropower is, comparatively, an older
source of renewable energy that can assure stable and continuous supply of power. This, therefore,
shows that of all sources there is continued reliance on this traditional form of renewable energy.
Natural gas also contributes 5.6% to the overall mix. Being another fossil fuel, natural gas has gained
some reputation compared with coal and oil for emitting fewer pollutants and GHGs. Its place in the
mix may indicate some gradual shifting towards cleaner energy sources.
The following ones in the ranking order are: diesel and lignite, with a share of 1.8% and 1.5%,
respectively. Their quite low percentage already lets us understand that there is a drift away from
more polluting fossil fuels.

At the end, the contribution of biomass energy is 2.5% of the total consumed. This kind of biomass,
coming from organic material, is a renewable source of energy contributing to cleaning up the
rubbish and minimizing CO2 emissions.

The graph reveals mixing between traditional fossil fuels and an increased reliance on renewable
sources. This puts the world on the slow lane toward sustainable use of energy.

Energy Availability and Demand Analysis

The principal objective of energy demand analysis is to determine future requirements by type of
fuel and by consumer category (or type of usage). Generally these types of analysis can help in
identifying if energy consumption is at a sustainable level, in regards with GDP, population growth
or other metrics. Using word bank data, Analysis has been done on renewable energy as a % of total
energy consumption and Electricity power consumption with respect to population and GDP levels
of India.
The first graph shows Electric power consumption in kWh per capita with respect to Population. The
graph indicates that while population growth has been steady, electric power consumption per capita
has increased at a faster rate, particularly after the late 1980s. This suggests that electricity usage has
outpaced population growth, likely due to increased industrialization, urbanization, and technology
access. The increase in power consumption in the early 2000s points to a significant rise in energy
demand, which could reflect economic development, lifestyle changes, and higher reliance on
electricity in daily life. The widening gap between population and consumption curves highlights a
growing per capita energy footprint.

The graph illustrates the relationship between electric power consumption per capita and GDP from
1960 to 2020, showing a clear correlation between economic growth and energy usage. Initially, both
GDP and power consumption rise gradually, but a significant acceleration occurs post-1980s, with a
sharper increase observed in the 2000s. This implies that as the GDP and economy expand, the
demand for electricity intensifies, driven by factors like industrialization, urbanization, and increased
reliance on technology. The steep upward trend in electric power consumption relative to GDP
highlights the growing energy intensity of modern economies, where economic development
increasingly depends on abundant and reliable electricity. The graph also indicates a divergence in
the growth rates of GDP and energy consumption, pointing to potential inefficiencies in energy use
or a higher dependency on electric power. This implies a critical need for sustainable energy
management strategies to ensure that economic growth does not lead to unsustainable energy
consumption patterns, which could have significant environmental and economic implications.
 The
graph shows a steady decline in the percentage of renewable energy consumption as a share of total
final energy consumption from 1990 to 2020. Starting at around 55% in 1990, the percentage
gradually decreased, dipping below 40% by 2010 and continuing to decline slightly afterward. This
trend suggests that despite growing awareness of the need for renewable energy, its relative
contribution to the overall energy mix has decreased over time. This decline could be due to the
increased use of non-renewable energy sources such as fossil fuels, which have likely grown faster
than renewables. Renewable energy is expensive to set up and fossil fuels are cheap, which might be
deterring the Indian population from shifting as cost is a huge determinant for the major population.
The slight uptick towards 2020 may indicate a renewed focus on renewable energy, but the overall
trend highlights challenges in scaling renewable energy. This slight increase is also due to increased
awareness and efforts by the government to meet the NDC goals of 2030.

Part 5: Critical Analysis of NDC 2030 Target Achievement

Objective: Critical analysis of the country's potential to achieve its NDC 2030 targets.
Instructions:
● Summarize the key NDC targets set by the country for 2030.
● Provide a well-reasoned critical analysis of whether the country is on track to achieve its
NDC goals based on available data and trends.
● Consider factors such as current policies and potential challenges in meeting the goals.
● Present your analysis in a concise report, focusing on clarity and insightful observations. (500
words)
India’s updated first Nationally Determined Contribution under Paris agreement.
(2021-2030)

● Firstly, to generate a healthy and sustainable way of living based upon traditions and values
of conservation and moderation, including through a mass movement for ‘LIFE’ – ‘Lifestyle
for Environment’ as a key to fight against climate change.

● This will have a huge impact on the whole of India by providing economic flexibility, equity
and ensuring a healthier environment for future generations.

● Then comes to follow a climate friendly and cleaner path than the one followed until now by
others. This can be done by reducing emissions intensity, expanding renewable energy and
climate finance and technology.

● Third target is to minimize the Emissions Intensity of its GDP by 45 percent by 2030, from
the 2005 level. To achieve this goal, we would have to focus on improving energy effeciency,
promoting sustainable practices and enhancing carbon sinks by promoting afforestation.

● Then there is to achieve 50 percent cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-
fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2030 by means of technology and financial help from
Green Climate Fund (CGF).

● Additionally, to produce an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2

equivalent by maximizing forest and tree cover by 2030. This will surely offset a large
amount of greenhouse gas emissions fulfilling its climate commitments under the paris
agreement.

● Sixth target is to invest in developing programmes in sectors which have high chances of
getting impacted by climate change such as Himalayan and coastal regions.The second last
one is to source domestic and new additional funds from developed countries in order to
carry out successful mitigation and adaptation measures.

● The final target is to establish national and international frameworks, and facilitate
cooperative R&D for such future technologies in order to hasten the speed of cutting edge
climate technology in India.

Source :https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-08/India%20Updated%20First%20Nationally%20Determined%20Contrib.pdf
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) targets set by India for 2030 in
relation to environmental sustainability and climate change

During the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) to the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC), India pledged to step up its climate efforts and showcased its five
nectar elements (Panchamrit) to the global community. India's current NDC has more ambitious
climate targets in line with the "Panchamrit" that was declared at COP 26. This upgrade moves India
closer to its long-term objective of becoming net-zero by 2070.6

Emissions Reduction Targets :

● India is aiming to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33-35% below 2005 levels by
2030. This goal reflects India's commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions relative to
economic output.7
● To establish an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 corresponded by
elaborate forest and tree cover.
● The Indian government has launched some schemes as well as programs to scale up India’s
actions on both adaptation and mitigation. As a result of the previously mentioned measures,
India has progressively continued decoupling of economic growth from greenhouse gas
emissions. For example, the Net Zero target by 2030 by Indian Railways will lead to a
depletion of emissions by 60 million tonnes yearly. Similarly, India’s massive LED bulb
campaign is reducing emissions by 40 million tonnes annually.

Renewable energy commitments :

● Low temperature Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) for stationary power
generation and for vehicular applications.
● To establish an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 corresponded by
elaborate forest and tree cover.

Other relevant aspects:

● To increase the investments in development programs in climate-vulnerable sectors,

including agriculture, water resources, the Himalayan area, coastal regions, health, and
disaster management, in order to better adapt to climate change.

Our current policy scenario is based on IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2023 which projects
that India's total energy related emissions will peak around 2035 , while emissions from the

6 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1847812

7
power sector will peak around 2030. Overall reliance on coal based power generation
remains about 55%, marginally lower than our 2022 update.

India is witnessing a bulging in summer electricity demand in recent years due to excessive
heat waves. Thereby the government has ordered coal plants to operate at maximum
capacity and has increased the use of gas.

Some of the positive developments of India in terms of climate change are:

Minimum renewable purchase obligation for the power distribution companies to

gradually rise from 24.6% in 2023 to 43.33% in 2030 .
.some very important energy related policy documents and laws emerged in 2023,
including the National Electricity plan 2023 , the National Green Hydrogen Mission,
and the recently amended Energy Conservation Act . These laws play an important
role in determining the energy landscape .
The policy support increased to expand storage capacity. The newly adopted
provides guidance to undertake the procurement and utilization of battery energy.

In order to intensify its climate efforts, India must:

● India is phasing out fossil fuels in tandem with the rest of the world, but it is important
to emphasize that India requires outside assistance in order to do this on a local
level.Indians most recent energy plan includes an additional 25.5 GW of coal
capacity for the second half of the decade, in addition to 25.6 GW .
● Instead of adding more coal-fired power capacity, create a fair and sustainable
strategy for early retirement of the current capacity. This involves accelerating the
deployment of renewable energy sources and storage alternatives to guarantee that
demand peaks during the year may be securely satisfied.
● Refrain from becoming reliant on LNG imports. India intends to boost LNGimports as
the price of the gas on the global market stabilizes and is developing LNG terminals
and pipelines as part of its infrastructure expansion for fossil fuels. If it is not possible
to avoid such imports, India might make sure that the infrastructure can be retired.
● India is now on course to both reach and surpass its 2030 goals; we can say that
because India has fulfilled two of its 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution
(NDC) objectives as of December 2023: India has raised its target to cut the
emissions intensity of its GDP by 45% by 2030 in comparison to 2005 levels.
India's emission intensity dropped by 33% between 2005 and 2019.
● Increasing non-fossil energy capacity: By 2030, India wants to generate 50% of its
installed electrical power capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy sources.
● Strong international cooperation will be needed to reduce emissions to the levels
required to keep global warming to 1.5°C. India might set a lofty conditional goal to
show what it would be prepared to accomplish in the event that assistance becomes
available.
 ● By 2030, the initiative aims to produce five million tonnes of green hydrogen
annually. The green hydrogen purchasing requirement has provided financial and
legislative assistance for the generation of green hydrogen and its industry adoption.

This is our comprehensive policy and action analysis.

Three components comprise India's NDC:
● An emissions-intensity target of 45% below 2005 levels by 2030;
● A target of achieving 50% cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-
fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2030; &
● Creation of a carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 GtCO2e through additional forest and tree cover
by 2030.

The most recent data for India indicates a much lower estimate of 2030 emissions
under the current policy scenario, due to increased renewable energy uptake and
reducing power sector emissions. However, in the absence of any new policies,
India's emissions are projected to increase after 2030.

Policies and Current Growth:

● Usage of renewable energy: India has high renewable energy targets under the
National Electricity Plan 2023 to constitute 57% and 66% of total capacity in 2026-27
and 2031-32, respectively. In 2022, renewable energy capacity installations saw
India take fourth place globally, after China, the United States, and Germany.
● In December 2022, India amended its Energy Conservation Act,. The Amendment
Act provides for the establishment of carbon markets through the scheme of trade of
Carbon Credits.
● Reduction in Carbon Intensity: NDC has set a goal to reduce the emissions intensity
of GDP by 45% by 2030 from 2005. Policies like those under the National Action
Plan on Climate Change help in climate adaptation and ensure further environmental
sustainability.
● Afforestation: The Government expects that by 2030, an additional carbon sink of
2.5-3 GtCO2e will be implemented from increased forest and tree cover.
Afforestation activities are being supported under the Green India Mission, National
Action Plan, and CAMPA.
● Under current regulations, India's emissions are likely to reach about 4-4.3 GtCO2e
in 2030. This is marginally down from the earlier assessment, with a marginal
decrease in coal-fired power generation and other energy-related CO2 emissions
from industry and the transport sector going down.
● In 2023, policies covering the energy industry appeared, including the National
Electricity Plan 2023 and the National Green Hydrogen Mission.

Potential Challenges in meeting India's NDC 2030 target:

● Coal Dependence: High coal usage can hinder development.

 ● Energy demand growth: The increase in energy consumption resulting from
industrial development and urbanization will increase emissions of carbon
compounds, which will in turn impede efforts to reduce carbon emissions. Industries
should adopt greener technologies to curb this effect.
● Climate change impacts: The shift in weather patterns, such lack of uniform
distribution of rainfall and increased temperatures, portend a high risk of extensive
damage— a recipe for accelerated global warming.
● Renewable energy resources: Challenges of renewable sources integration are
continuity of power supply plus the heavy investment and time.
● Investment and financing: If not assured, economic instability and policy instability,
as well as competition with other financial resources, might influence the pace of
renewable energy implementation. It is important that enough climate resilience
initiative financing be provided.
● Technology Limitations: Limited access to advanced clean energy technologies
can influence attempts to combat climate change.
● Public Understanding and Participation: With widespread understanding, there
may be more support for sustainable behaviors. It impacts policy support, behavior
change, and resource allocation.
Addressing these challenges will be crucial to achieve its NDC 2030 targets.

https://climateactiontracker.org

India was ranked seventh among the list of countries most affected by climate change in
2019 The climate change performance index of India ranks eighth among 63 countries
[4]
which account for 92% of all GHG emissions in the year 2021. Temperature rises on the
Tibetan Plateau are causing Himalayan glaciers to retreat, threatening the flow rate of the
Ganges, Brahmaputra, Yamuna and other major rivers. A 2007 World Wide Fund for Nature
(WWF) report states that the Indus River may run dry for the same reason.