robability Probability ~ probabilities of each re Terms to know: 1) Random variable, X - a measurable quantity Distribution Distributions sult obtained in an experiment whose value is the result obtained in an experiment, x, + Discrete random variable * Continuous random variab: = the data only takes certain the data can take any numerical discrete numerical values E.g. number on a die numberof cards selected... etc. values in a given range Eg. height, length, weight, temperature, speed ... etc. 2) Probability Distribution — the probability associated with each measured value of an experiment, — can be represented as a table or graph, or given as a function, Afair die has faces marked with number 1, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4 ‘The random variable, X, is the number shown on the die when itis thrown. ‘PThe results obtained, x, can be 1, 3, 4. ‘>The probability distribution for X is: 3) Expectation, E(X) - the mean/expected value of the random variable X. BQ) = YP =x) For the above example, BQ) = 1xt43 , 4 t Gm Txt axstang(Reem ‘The following table shows the probability distribution of a discrete random variable X. (=z 2 0 3 i P(X =x) 0.3 2) Find the value of k b) Find the expected value of X. Dita 03402+k+014007=1 k= 0.33 Yre=x0 = (-2)(0.3) + (0)(0.2) + 2(0.33) + 3(0.1) + 4(0.07) 0.6 + 0.66 +03 + 0.28 = 0.64 John did an experiment by throwing two fair dice, A and B. The score for each die is the number facing up. | a) Write down the sample space. b) Find the probability of getting two scores of 6. ©) Let the number of 6s facing up be X. Construct a probability distribution table for x. 4) Calculate E(x). Sample space Is the list of all the possible outcomes. It ean also be represented byadiagram. (Continued in the next page)OR diagrammatically, the sample space is: Watch Out: ‘The sample space is not the sum of scores, nor is it the number of elements in the sample space! b) on PC two's) = 35 ©) As there are only two dice, the possible numbers of ‘6's that one may get is 0, 1 and 2. Look at the sample space. We obtain n(X = 1) = 10. Hence, n(X = 0) = 36—1-10=25, 0 1 25 10 36 36 cay = 0) (Z2) +00 (55) +2(5e) | The probability distribution for a random variable X is given by 2xt1 PX =a) =e where x = 0,1,5. a) Calculate P(X = 5), b) Verify that this probability distribution is vali. ©) Find P(X < 5). 4) Find E(x), ued in the next page)205) +1 15 a) PX =5) uw ») P(X =0) + PK =1) +P =5) “Verify the probabiny : distribution function by 2 +1, 241, 26) 41 ata 15 15 15 a =1434H Diaat “qs "isis z T = - aL is sated. Equlvalenty ° a] PX <8) Por = 0)+Par= °) £0) = (5) + (=) +2(, 3 “15 we @ integrated problem: Example: The following table shows the probability distribution of a discrete random variable X. x 5 3 7 PR=%) 0.7925, But 4u a) Find the value of u. ) Find the expected value of X.Solution: a) 0.7925 + 3u? + 4u = 1 3u? + 4u + (0.7925 - 1) = 0 3u2 +4u— 0.2075 = 0 ‘W'is the probability that it must be posttive and smaller than 1 U=005 or u = 1.38 rejected) emo ‘Always check if the answer makes sense: Probability cannot be negative nor greater than 1 (i. 0< P; <1) However, for expectation, E(X), no such limitations apply. b) E(X) = (75) x 0.7925 +3 x (Bu) +7 x (4u) 5) x 0.7925 + 3 x 3 x (0.05)? +7 x 4x (0.05) = -254