Fundamental

Concepts in
Environmental
Systems
Modeling
M I C H A E L A R I E H P. M E D I N A
A Systems Approach to
Environmental Problems
Definition of Systems Thinking

Systems thinking is a way to approach

issues by looking at them as systems.
Rather than considering only how to solve an
immediate problem, you consider how all of
the pieces connect to make the whole.
A Systems Approach to
Environmental Problems
Example:

…instead of replacing that same gear over and

over:

1. The gear’s construction and design

(casting, forging, metallurgy)

2. The operational conditions (weight, friction,

torque, noise)

3. The environmental conditions

(temperature, humidity, sanitation), and

4. The maintenance (cleanliness, lubrication) Various interconnected factors could be affecting

the gear’s performance and durability.
A Systems Approach to
Environmental Problems
A Systems Approach to
Environmental Problems
THE ICEBERG METAPHOR
Levels of Thinking
1. The Event Level
◦ the level at which we typically perceive the world.

2. The Pattern Level

◦ below the event level, we often notice patterns.- similar events have been
taking place over time.

3. The Structure Level

◦ what is causing the pattern we are observing?

4. The Mental Model Level

◦ attitudes, beliefs, morals, expectations, and values that allow structures to
continue functioning as they are
A Systems Approach to
Environmental Problems
THE ICEBERG METAPHOR

A systems thinker might approach a problem by asking:

➢What could be under the surface that we don’t see?

➢What are the conditions (budgets, resources) that influence the

problem?

➢What issues, people or systems are working together to create what is

seen above the water?

➢What ripple effects might be created by our ideas/solutions?

A Systems Approach to
Environmental Problems
6 core concepts or “building blocks” for systems thinkers:

1. Interconnectedness: Systems thinking relies upon the underlying principle that everything is
connected to something else (or a combination of things) to continue; in other terms – everything
is interconnected.

2. Synthesis: Synthesis is the combining of two or more things to create something new.

3. Emergence: Emergence is the natural outcome of things coming together or the larger byproduct
of different parts of the system interacting with each other.
A Systems Approach to
Environmental Problems
6 core concepts or “building blocks” for systems thinkers:

4. Feedback Loops: Because everything in a system is interconnected, there are constant feedback
loops and flows between respective elements. Learning about their type and dynamics can help
us observe, understand, and intervene in those feedback loops.

5. Causality: Understanding feedback loops is about appreciating causality, or how one thing results
in another thing in a dynamic and constantly evolving system.

6. Systems Mapping: Systems mapping is an important tool that allows systems thinkers to identify
and map the elements of ‘things’ within a system to understand how they interconnect, relate,
and act in a complex system.
A Systems Approach to
Environmental Problems
6 viewpoints and assumptions that characterize systems thinking:

1. Systems thinking begins with a global description and moves toward

the specific.

2. Systems thinking focuses on dynamic processes.

3. Systems thinking seeks a closed-loop explanation for how things work.

4. Systems thinking identifies feedback loops.

5. Systems thinking looks for checks, balances, and potential for runaway
processes.

6. Systems thinking focuses on causal relationships.

A Systems Approach to
Environmental Problems
Feedback Loop Definition

A feedback loop in a dynamic system can be

defined as a closed-loop circle of cause and effect
in which "conditions" in one part of the system
cause "results" elsewhere in the system, which in
turn act on the original "conditions" to change
them.
A Systems Approach to
Environmental Problems
Two types of feedback loops can occur. These are:

(1) positive feedback (also called reinforcing

feedback) and

(2) negative feedback (also called counteracting or

balancing feedback).

➢Both types are common in the environment.

➢Being able to recognize and distinguish between

these two types in a real-life environmental system
can lead to a significant understanding of how the
system works.
A Systems Approach to
Environmental Problems
Two types of feedback loops can occur. These are:

(1) positive feedback (also called reinforcing

feedback) and

(2) negative feedback (also called counteracting or

balancing feedback).

➢Both types are common in the environment.

➢Being able to recognize and distinguish between

these two types in a real-life environmental system
can lead to a significant understanding of how the
system works.
A Systems Approach to
Environmental Problems
➢Positive feedback (also called reinforcing feedback)
exists whenever changes at one point on a feedback
loop eventually work their way back to reinforce or
amplify the original change.

➢Such systems tend to eventually run out of control.

➢Many environmental problems are closely

associated with naturally occurring positive
feedback loops whose influence on the overall
system has been accentuated by changes due to
human activity.
A Systems Approach to
Environmental Problems
Negative feedback (also called counteracting/balancing
feedback) exists whenever changes at one point on a
feedback loop eventually work their way back through the
system to counteract or "damp out" the original change.
A Systems Approach to
Environmental Problems
A Systems Approach to
Environmental Problems
A Systems Approach to
Environmental Problems
A Systems Approach to
Environmental Problems
Causal Loop Diagram
MICHAEL ARIEH MEDINA
Causal Loop Diagram
A useful tool to provide a visual representation of dynamic
interrelationships.

Is used to test and clarify our thinking.

Component of a causal loop
diagram
Variables: Varies (up or down) over time

Arrows: the direction of influence between

variables
◦ Causality: A → B

Polarity:
◦ + or s, if A and B change in the same direction
◦ - or o, if A and B change in the opposite directions

Feedback Loops: Balancing (B) or Reinforcing (R)

Delay (││): The effect is delayed

Basic Causal Loop Diagram notation
Component of a causal loop diagram
 A reinforcing loop or positive feedback loop is one in
which an action produces a result which influences

Reinforcing loop
more of the same action thus resulting in growth or
decline.
Reinforcing loop
Bank balance and Earned interest
Reinforcing loops can be vicious cycles!
(+)

(+)
 Balancing feedback loops, or negative feedback loops, are
circles of cause and effect that counter a change with a push
Balancing loop in the opposite direction.

STRUCTURE DYNAMIC BEHAVIOR

Combination loops
Diagrams Can Have Multiple Loops
Money Loop
◦ The better is the NGO’s reputation, the more
funds were available, boosting capacity.

People Loop
◦ The better its reputation, the higher quality
people it was able to hire, boosting its
capacity.

Learning by doing Loop

◦ The more the NGO achieved results in its work,
it accumulates experience thereby increasing
its capacity to achieve results.
Causal loop diagram depicting forest
cover dynamics in Negros Island
 -
Assignment: Rate of Flow

B
Draw a causal loop diagram of any +
system dynamic processes which Level of Water
involves something that happens
inside your household.

+ Child doing
Good

R Parent
Giving +
Money
Stack and Flow Diagrams
MICHAEL ARIEH MEDINA
 A linear behavior pattern is one
in which the reservoir of interest
changes at a constant rate over
time.

In order for a reservoir to exhibit

linear growth or decay, therefore,
the sum of all the inflows into the
reservoir, minus the sum of all its
outflows must be constant.

• If the constant is positive, then the system

will display linear growth.
• If the constant is negative, then the system
will exhibit linear decay.
• If the constant is equal to zero, then the
reservoir will remain constant through time.
The graph demonstrates that the rate of
growth of the mouse population is not
constant. This system does not exhibit
linear growth. This is an example of
exponential growth.
 The rate at which the water
flows out will be greater at the
beginning because the pressure
of the water still in the bucket
pushes down, forcing water out.

As the water volume in

the bucket decreases,
however, the downward
pressure lessens.
Hence, the rate at which
the water will flow from
the bucket will also
decrease
 This part of the curve looks like
an exponential growth system.

Unlike the exponential growth system,

however, the growth in a logistic
system eventually levels out and the
system approaches a steady-state
value (ex. Carrying capacity).
How overshoot and collapse takes place
1. There are two reservoirs: the Population and the Resource.

2. Because the Resource has only an outflow process attached, it is nonrenewable; the system
does not provide any means by which the Resource can be replenished.

3. Each individual in the Population consumes Resource units in a single unit of time. Hence, as
the Population size increases, the rate at which the Resources are consumed also increases.

4. The size of the remaining Resource base affects the Death Rate in the Population. As the
Resource base decreases, the Death Rate increases.
How oscillation takes place
1. The system contains at least two interdependent reservoirs. One reservoir can be thought of
as the Consumer in the system, and the other can be thought of as the Resource.

2. The Consumer and Resource reservoirs have equilibrium values around which they oscillate.

3. The further one reservoir is from its equilibrium value, the more influence the other reservoir
exerts to "pull it back" toward equilibrium.