Muhurat Pick – 2024 October 24, 2024

Dear customers,
Wishing you all a Happy and Prosperous Diwali!

Indian equity, have faced some jitters in last 1 month, amid the heavy FII selling of close to ₹ 1 lakh crore amid
escalated geopolitical tensions and talks of incremental flows into China given the stimulus. Nonetheless, Positive
catalysts such as a) robust corporate earnings (likely to grow at 14% CAGR over FY24-26) and b) Favorable growth-
Inflation dynamics of India (~6-7% sustainable GDP growth with comfortable inflation of sub ~5%), continues to
present Indian equity as superior proposition in this global backdrop.

Our one year forward, Nifty target is at 27500 (22x FY26 EPS) with sectoral preference towards Capital Goods/Infra,
Private Banks (and AMCs) and select Auto, IT and Pharma pack.

Keeping the key filter of quality and growth visibility, we continue to see reasonable opportunities across the market
spectrum. Investors are advised to utilize equities as a key asset class for long term wealth generation by investing in
quality companies with strong earnings growth and visibility, stable cash flows, RoE and RoCE.

Buying Target Potential

CMP Market Cap P/E(x) ROCE(%) ROE(%)
Company Range Price Upside
₹ ₹ ₹ % ₹ Crore FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E
Sansera Engineering 1,490-1,590 1,580 2,000 27% 9,754 34.4 25.7 11.6 13.9 9.9 11.8
PCBL 435-470 447 600 34% 16,884 32.1 22.5 13.7 16.5 14.0 17.7
NCC 275-300 286 400 40% 17,947 17.9 13.2 22.0 25.8 13.3 15.6
Tech Mahindra 1,680-1,750 1,735 2,000 15% 1,69,783 36.4 25.0 18.2 25.1 15.1 21.3
Tata Power 410-450 437 530 21% 1,39,445 33.3 28.8 9.5 9.7 12.5 12.9
NATCO Pharma 1,300-1,390 1,347 1,680 25% 24,123 13.5 15.5 29.9 22.8 24.4 17.8
HDFC AMC 4,385-4,580 4,435 5,500 24% 94,731 40.0 34.3 30.9 32.8 33.5 35.9
Muhurat Pick

Sansera Engineering (SANEN) Buying Range (₹ 1,490-1,590) PCBL Ltd. (PHICAR) Buying Range (₹ 435-470)
• Sansera Engineering is a leading auto component manufacturer of • PCBL Ltd is the leading manufacturer of carbon black, which is used as a
precision forged components (engine, non-engine) for end application in reinforcing material in tyres. PCBL also derives ~11% of sales volume from
primarily auto domain. Its portfolio also includes forged components in specialty carbon black, which finds application in paints, plastics, etc.
Auto Tech agnostic domain, drive train components in EV domain and • PCBL, has recently commissioned its new carbon black plant in Tamil
structured parts in non-auto space (Aerospace, Defence, Off-Road, etc.). Nadu with a nameplate capacity of ~1.5 lakh tonnes. Initially it expected
• Sansera realizes 76% of its sales from Auto-ICE segment (scooter to fully utilize this plant by FY26E end, however given the opportunity in
segment exposure at 6%) while it realizes rest ~12% of sales each from the export markets, it now expects to hit peak utilisation levels in FY25E
Auto Tech Agnostic & EV segment and non-auto segment. With higher itself. Sensing further opportunity, it is now executing a brownfield
ICE exposure, SEL is actively working on de-risking itself with a goal to expansion at this site & even discussing upon new greenfield plant, which
reduce auto-ICE share of sales to 60% while augmenting share of tech shall ensure healthy double digit volume growth over the next few years.
agnostic-auto and non-auto share of sales to 20% each in coming years. • PCBL has, over years, with indigenous R&D developed grades in specialty
• Sansera has seen a notable rise in revenues from international markets, carbon black domain, which is a high margin product (typically ~3-4x
with exports share in total revenue up from ~22% in FY23 to ~25% as of normal trye grade CB). Specialty grade carbon black volumes are slated to
FY24. Significantly, global constitutes ~63% of its pending orderbook as grow at a CAGR of 14% (higher than base business) over FY24-27E.
of Q1FY25 (peak annual revenue of ₹1,700 crore, realizable in ~3 years). • PCBL’s management in the recent analyst meet outlined its vision wherein
With established capabilities & capacities in place, SEL is well Sales/EBITDA/PAT is expected to be 3x/4x/5x respectively over FY24-29E.
transforming itself to be a precision engineering company on global scale RoE improvement is seen improving from 15% (FY24) to 25% (FY29E).
• With fresh capital infused, new tie-ups in non-auto space including
plans for new greenfield facility, we bake in 18.5% revenue CAGR over
• We have positive view on PCBL and assign BUY rating amid (i)
profitable organic growth at its base carbon black business (ii) turnaround
FY24-27E. We have a positive view on Sansera and assign BUY
in sight at Aquapharm (iii) big opportunity in sight in Nano Silica. We
rating on the stock with a target price of ₹2,000 i.e. 28x PE on FY26-
expect Sales/PAT at PCBL to grow at a CAGR of 21%/27% over FY24-
27E avg EPS. Risk: 1) Slower than expected sales growth due to
27E. We value PCBL at ₹600 i.e. 26x P/E on FY26-27E avg. EPS. Risk: (i)
geopolitical issues affecting exports 2) Margins Pressure due to
delay in expansion plans (ii) pressure on margins amid rise in competition
fluctuation in commodity cost
3 Year CAGR 3 Year CAGR
Particulars (₹ crore) FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E Particulars (₹ crore) FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
(FY24-FY27E) (FY24-FY27E)
Net Sales 2,811.4 3,239.2 3,834.2 4,682.9 18.5% Net Sales 6,419.8 8,835.4 10,174.5 11,371.0 21.0%
EBITDA 479.8 565.2 709.3 913.2 23.9% EBITDA 1,037.4 1,516.0 1,839.0 2,115.0 26.8%
EBITDA Margin (%) 17.1 17.5 18.5 19.5 EBITDA Margin (%) 16.2 17.2 18.1 18.6
Net Profit 185.7 276.3 370.3 501.7 39.3% Net Profit 490.9 563.5 803.7 1,017.1 27.5%
EPS (₹) 34.6 45.0 60.4 81.8 33.2% EPS (₹) 13.0 14.3 20.4 25.8
P/ E (x) 44.7 34.4 25.7 19.0 P/ E (x) 35.4 32.1 22.5 17.8
RoNW (%) 13.8 9.9 11.8 13.9 RoNW (%) 15.1 14.0 17.7 19.6
RoCE (%) 14.0 11.6 13.9 16.8
RoCE (%) 10.2 13.7 16.5 18.6
Muhurat Pick

NCC Ltd. (NAGCON) Buying Range (₹ 275-300) Tech Mahindra (TECMAH) Buying Range (₹ 1,680-1,750)
• Tech Mahindra (TechM) has over 1.45 lakh+ employees across 90 countries
• NCC is a leading construction company with presence across varied serving 1000+ clients with higher exposure in communications sector (33%
verticals such as buildings, roads, water, mining etc. Standalone order- of revenues). Apart from communication, the company caters to BFSI,
book is at ₹47625 crore, 2.5x TTM book to bill. manufacturing. Healthcare, hi-tech & media & retail sectors.
• NCC has indicated that, apart from overall opportunity, it expects • For FY27 the new management has outlined a vision of i) Industry leading
improved order inflows prospects from Andhra Pradesh and Bihar, given topline growth, ii) improved EBIT margins of 15% from 6.1% in FY24 (with
the budget allocations. It has guided for an order booking of about incremental savings of ~US$ 250mn/year from Project Fortius), iii) achieve
₹20,000 to ₹22,000 crore, excluding any order inflows from AP. RoCE >30% & iv) return >85% FCF via dividends & buybacks.
• The company’s topline growth guidance is at 15% for FY25, albeit • Notably, accounts over US$20 mn are experiencing accelerated growth
accelerated inflows could drive upgrade of the same going ahead, in our (1.5x overall growth) aided by the Turbocharge program, while it is working
view. Given the robust orderbook, we expect healthy revenue CAGR of on building its large deal capabilities and reducing the percentage of
15.6% over FY24-27E to ₹28,275 crore. subcontracting revenue while investing in new talent and training to expand
• The EBITDA margin guidance is 9.5-10% amidst the competitive bidding margins. The focus remains on margin expansion, even if it means
scenario, and with company focusing on revenue growth momentum in deprioritizing large deals which another step in the right direction.
FY25 over margins. We bake in EBITDA margins at 9.5%/10.3%/10.5% • We believe, the company’s US$ revenue will grow at CAGR of 6.7%
in FY25/FY26 vs. 9% in FY24. between FY24-27E, but operating profit growth is likely to outpace with
• Healthy Topline growth along with stable finance costs is likely to drive EBIT margin improving from 6.1% in FY24 to 14.5% in FY27E, implying a
25.9% earnings CAGR over FY24-27E. The strong earnings momentum CAGR of 43.6% over FY24-27E.
will translate into return ratios improvement, with ROE’s likely to expand • We have valued the company at 25x P/E on FY27E EPS to assign a
to 16.2% in FY27 vs. 12.3% in FY24. Given the strong order book target price of ₹2,000.
visibility and improving balance sheet strength, it is poised for healthy • Key Risks: a) Continued weakness in Top 5 telecom heavy clients; b) Lower
growth ahead. We Value NCC at ₹400, at 18x FY26 P/E. than expected margin expansion under Project Fortius
• Key risks: lower than expected order inflows, heightened competitive
intensity impacting margins. 3 years CAGR
(₹ crore) FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
3 years CAGR (FY24-27E)
(₹ crore) FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
(FY24-27E) Net sales 51,996 53,885 58,788 64,343 7.4
Net Sales 18,314 21,053 24,429 28,275 16%
EBIT 3,147 5,071 7,912 9,330 43.6
EBITDA 1,648 2,000 2,504 2,955 21%
EBIT Margin (%) 6.1 9.4 13.5 14.5
EBITDA Margin (%) 9.0 9.5 10.3 10.5
Net Profit 2,358 4,119 6,003 7,078 44.3
Adj. PAT 837 1,019 1,384 1,672 26%
EPS (₹) 26.7 46.5 67.9 80.3
Adj. EPS (₹) 10.1 16.2 22.0 26.6
P/E (x) 28.8 17.9 13.2 10.9 P/E 63.6 36.4 25.0 21.1

RoNW (%) 12.3 13.3 15.6 16.2 RoNW (%) 8.8 15.1 21.3 22.4

RoCE (%) 20.1 22.0 25.8 26.3 RoCE (%) 12.6 18.2 25.1 26.8
Muhurat Pick
Tata Power (TATPOW) Buying Range (₹410-450) Natco Pharma (NATPHA) Buying Range (₹ 1,300-1,390)
• Tata Power is one of India's leading integrated players in the energy landscape, • Natco has, developed a knack for manufacturing complex generic products with
with a robust footprint in generation, renewables, transmission, distribution, and few competitors, especially for US market. India formulations mainly comprise
cutting-edge energy solution. The company boasts 10183 MW of conventional oncology products (39 brands). For the US, it follows partnership products for
capacity (Thermal & Hydro), 4524 MW of renewable capacity. It also has risky launches and acquired Dash Pharma for a front-end presence. It owns six
presence in T&D space with Mumbai, Delhi, Ajmer and Odisha circles under its FDF, two API manufacturing facilities and two crop health sciences units.
command. The company is also active in the Solar EPC space and is further • Natco has enjoyed significant windfall since the launch of generic version of
backward integrating by putting up 4.3 GW of solar cell and manufacturing blockbuster global anti-cancer drug Revlimid in FY22. Our estimates suggest
capacity (partially commissioned). that the company generated almost Rs 3500 crore sales from generic Revlimid
• The company is well on track to reach an installed capacity of 15 GW through a during FY22-FY24 and over the next two fiscals i.e. FY25 and FY26, the
diverse mix of solar, wind and pumped hydro storage. The company has signed company is expected to generate another ~Rs. 5000 crore.
a MoU with the Government of Maharashtra to develop two large PSPs with a • As this opportunity is expected to wane significantly, Natco has already started
combined capacity of 2,800 MW. Over the last two years, it has increased its focusing on the next potential blockbusters where the company intends to
under-construction portfolio to 5500 MW, thereby giving strong confidence that challenge the patent or launch the product with mutual understanding with the
the company is on track to achieve its stated goal of renewable capacity innovators. The company is now banking on some new FTF opportunities,
addition target. notably gOzempic (Anti-diabetic), gWeovy (Weight management) and
• Tata Power also has 13% market share in existing rooftop market. India is gLynparza (Anti-cancer) among others. (Total pipeline- Key Solo Para IV FTFs-
revamping the policies to give a boost to solar rooftop segment with higher 8; Key Para IV products -7). The management is confident on the prospects of
subsidy and 40GW target over the next couple of years; we expect Tata Power some of these products to maintain the blockbuster traction beyond FY26.
to benefit from this opportunity. Already, its partner Mylan has settled a US patent litigation with Novo-Nordisk
for generic Ozempic (to be outsourced from Stelis).
• We believe Tata Power as attractive opportunity to play the entire power value
chain in India and coupled with the strong renewable capacity addition targets. • Our target price is ₹ 1680 based on 18x FY26E base business EPS of ₹ 87.2
We value it on SoTP basis and arrive at a fair value of ₹ 530 per share. Key plus ₹ 110 NPV for gRevlimid. Key Risks: i) Slower ramp up in new launches in
Risks: a)Slower capacity renewables addition b) Change in regulations US ii) Kothur plant warning letter and its implication on cost and launches.

3 Year CAGR 2 Year CAGR

Particulars (₹ crore) FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E Particulars (₹ crore) FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E
(FY24-FY27E) (FY24-FY26E)
Net Sales 61,448.9 70,334.4 76,755.5 83,958.4 11.0% Net Sales 2,707.9 3,992.7 5,029.1 5,214.9 14.3%
EBITDA 10,783.8 12,589.0 14,662.2 16,516.2 15.3% EBITDA 936.4 1,745.3 2,375.7 2,145.6 10.9%
EBITDA Margin (%) 17.5 17.9 19.1 19.7 EBITDA Margins (%) 34.6 43.7 47.2 41.1
Net Profit 3,696.3 4,224.3 4,882.2 5,596.8 14.8% Net Profit 714.2 1,388.3 1,833.8 1,596.3 7.2%
EPS (₹) 11.6 13.2 15.3 17.5 EPS (₹) 39.0 75.9 100.2 87.2
P/ E (x) 38.1 33.3 28.8 25.1 PE (x) 34.6 17.8 13.5 15.5
RoNW (%) 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.0 RoNW (%) 14.7 23.7 24.4 17.8
RoCE (%) 9.3 9.5 9.7 9.8 RoCE (%) 17.1 26.9 29.9 22.8
Muhurat Pick
HDFC ASSET MANAGEMENT CO LTD (HDFAMC) Buying Range (₹ 4,385-4,580)
• HDFC AMC is among the largest and profitable mutual funds with an QAAUM of
₹7.68 lakh crore as on September 2024. Market share as on Q2FY25 was at
11.5%. Strong distribution network with 255 branches and over 90,000
empaneled distribution partners aids business growth.
• Post gaining market share in the previous quarters, HDFC AMC has kept the
same steady at ~11.5% with focus on equity AUM driven by sustained
performance, robust SIP flows (market share at ~15%) and accretion in unique
customer base (market share at ~24%). Focus on distribution in tier 2 & 3 cities,
MTM gains, continued SIP inflow and emphasis on business from HDFC Bank
(contribution of ~6% to AUM) is expected to aid AUM growth with further
increase in share of equity AUM.
• Increase in proportion of equity AUM (+60 bps QoQ) and rationalization of
selective rationalisation of commission structure offset impact of telescopic
pricing, thus aiding improvement in yields. Effective from Aug 2024, passing of
impact of TER towards distribution channel is seen to slowdown the pace of fall
in yields. Continued robust operational efficiency is expected to enable sustained
growth in earnings. Expect PAT to increase at ~18% CAGR in FY25-27E
• Improving equity mix, higher market share in robust SIP flows & superior
efficiency is seen to aid profitability. Realignment of distribution structure is seen
to limit pressure on yields. The stock remains a play on structural growth in
Indian asset management domain with superior operational matrix. Considering
relatively higher business growth without any b/s risk, we remain positive on the
stock. Thus, we assign target price of ₹5500, valuing it at ~37x FY27E EPS.
Key Risks- a) Regulatory decline in TER b) Heightened volatility in equities
3 Year CAGR
Particulars (₹ crore) FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
(FY24-FY27E)
Revenue from operation 2,584.4 3,410.5 3,945.4 4,514.3 20.4%
PBT 2,478.2 3,198.1 3,661.0 4,157.3 18.8%
Net Profit 1,945.8 2,398.6 2,800.7 3,180.3 17.8%
EPS (₹) 91.1 112.4 131.2 149.0
P/E (x) 49.3 40.0 34.3 30.2
AUM /share (₹) 28,335.2 37,664.1 43,570.0 50,445.7
P/AUM (%) 15.9 11.9 10.3 8.9
RoE (%) 29.5 33.5 35.9 37.2
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