Probability Statistics Section 1.1 Notes

§ 1.
An Overview of
Statistics
Data and Statistics
Data consists of information coming from
observations, counts, measurements, or
responses.
Statistics is the science of collecting,
organizing, analyzing, and interpreting data in
order to make decisions.
A population is the collection of all outcomes,
responses, measurement, or counts that are
of interest.
A sample is a subset of a population.
Populations & Samples
 Example:
 In a recent survey, 250 college students
at Union College were asked if they
smoked cigarettes regularly. 35 of the
students said yes. Identify the
population
Responses ofand
all the sample.
students at Union
College (population)
Responses of
students in
survey (sample)
Parameters & Statistics
A parameter is a numerical description of a
population characteristic.
A statistic is a numerical description of a sample

characteristic.
Parameter Population
Statistic Sample
Parameters & Statistics
 Example:
 Decide whether the numerical value describes a
population parameter or a sample statistic.
a.) A recent survey of a sample of 450

college students reported that the
average weekly income for students is
$325.
Because the average of $325 is based on
a sample, this is a sample statistic.
b.) The average weekly income for all
students is $405.
Because the average of $405 is based on
a population, this is a population
parameter.
Branches of Statistics
The study of statistics has two major
branches: descriptive statistics and inferential
statistics. Statistics
Descriptive Inferential
statistics statistics
Involves the Involves using
organization, a sample to
summarization, draw
and display of conclusions
data. about a
Descriptive and Inferential
 Statistics
Example:
 In a recent study, volunteers who had less than 6
hours of sleep were four times more likely to answer
incorrectly on a science test than were participants
who had at least 8 hours of sleep. Decide which part
is the descriptive statistic and what conclusion might
be drawn using inferential statistics.
The statement “four times more likely to

answer incorrectly” is a descriptive
statistic. An inference drawn from the
sample is that all individuals sleeping
less than 6 hours are more likely to
answer science question incorrectly than
individuals who sleep at least 8 hours.
 Note: The development of Inferential
Statistics has occurred only since the early
1900’s.
 Examples:
 1. The medical team that develops a new
vaccine for a disease is interested in what
would happen if the vaccine were
administered to all people in the
population.
 2. The marketing expert may test a
product in a few “representative” areas,
from the resulting information, he/she will
 Probability forms a bridge between the
descriptive and inferential techniques and
leads to a better understanding of
statistical conclusions.

Both Probability and Statistics deal with

questions involving population and samples
but do so in an “inverse manner” to one
another
Probability (Properties of population are known)
Sample
Populatio
n
Characteristics of the samples are known

and you predict about whole population
 Examples:
1. Suppose you have a deck of cards and you

select one
card , what is the probability of selecting a
king?
 Prob(king) = 4/52 = 1/13
 Note: Here we know the population (deck of
cards) and
 the sample is one card selected randomly →
 2. Every day, you see and hear public
opinion polls (Harris poll, Gallup poll etc.).
Even with most powerful computers and
resources available, still pollsters can not
find the opinions of more than 100 million
Americans (population) in United States.
Rather, they sample the opinions of a small
number of voters (sample) and then use
this information to make conclusion about
the whole population → Inferential Statistics
 The Essential Elements of a Statistical Problem
 The objective of statistics is to make

inferences (predictions, and/or decisions)
about a population based upon the
information contained in a sample. A
statistical problem involves the following
 1. A clear definition of the objectives of

the experiment and the pertinent
population. For example, clear
specification of the questions to be
 3. The collection and analysis of data.
 4. The procedure for making inferences

about the population based upon the
sample information.
5. The provision of a measure of goodness

(reliability) of the inference. The most
important step, because without the
reliability the inference has no meaning
and is useless.
Population or Sample?
 The age of each state governor
A. Population
B. Sample
 The speed of every fifth car passing a
police speed trap
A. Population
B. Sample
 A survey of 500 students from a
university with 10,000 students
A. Population
B. Sample
 The annual salary for each employee at
a company
A. Population
B. Sample
 The cholesterol levels of 20 patients in a
hospital with 100 patients
A. Population
B. Sample
 The number of pets in each U.S.
household
A. Population
B. Sample
Parameter or Statistic?
 The average annual salary for 35 of a

company’s 1200 accountants is $68,000.
A. Parameter
B. Statistic
 In a survey of a sample of high school

students, 43% said that their mother has
taught them the most about managing
money.
A. Parameter
B. Statistic
 In 2007, the interest category for 12% of

all new magazines was sports.
A. Parameter
B. Statistic
Inferential or Descriptive
Statistics?
 Fact: The following numbers of students
passed this course in the past four
years: 17, 19, 4, 20.
 Is the following conclusion obtained from

purely descriptive measures or by
inferential methods?
The last four semesters the instructor

taught Probability & Statistics, an average
Statistics?
years: 17, 19, 4, 20.

The next time the instructor teaches

Probability & Statistics, we can expect
Statistics?
years: 17, 19, 4, 20.

This instructor will never pass more

than 20 people in a Probability & Statistics
Statistics?
years: 17, 19, 4, 20.

The last four semesters the instructor

taught Probability & Statistics, no more
Statistics?
years: 17, 19, 4, 20.

Only 4 people passed one semester

because the instructor was in a bad mood
Statistics?
years: 17, 19, 4, 20.

The instructor passes so few people in

his Probability & Statistics classes because

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§ 1.

A statistic is a numerical description of a sample

a.) A recent survey of a sample of 450

The statement “four times more likely to

Both Probability and Statistics deal with

Characteristics of the samples are known

1. Suppose you have a deck of cards and you

 The objective of statistics is to make

 1. A clear definition of the objectives of

 4. The procedure for making inferences

5. The provision of a measure of goodness

 The average annual salary for 35 of a

 In a survey of a sample of high school

 In 2007, the interest category for 12% of

 Is the following conclusion obtained from

The last four semesters the instructor

 Is the following conclusion obtained from

The next time the instructor teaches

 Is the following conclusion obtained from

This instructor will never pass more

 Is the following conclusion obtained from

The last four semesters the instructor

 Is the following conclusion obtained from

Only 4 people passed one semester

 Is the following conclusion obtained from

The instructor passes so few people in

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