TRIP DISTRIBUTION

FORECAST PLAN
TRIP DISTRIBUTION

•a key step in
transportation planning
that predicts how trips
generated in one zone
(origin) are distributed
across other zones
(destinations).
 TRIP DISTRIBUTION METHODS

GROWTH FACTOR GRAVITY INTERVENING

MODELS MODEL OPPORTUNITIES

𝑡𝑖𝑗 𝐺𝑗 𝐴𝑗 𝐹𝑖𝑗 𝐾𝑖𝑗 𝐴𝑗

𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑡𝑖 𝐺𝑖 𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑃𝑖 𝑃𝑖𝑗 =
σ𝑥 𝑡𝑖𝑥 𝐺𝑥 σ𝑗 𝐴𝑗 𝐹𝑖𝑗 𝐾𝑖𝑗 σ𝑗𝑘=1 𝐴𝑘
GRAVITY MODEL

• Used primarily to distribute trips between zones in the

study area and zones in cities external to the study
area.
• Mathematically, the Gravity Model is expressed as:
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛 𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑖 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑡𝑜 𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑗
𝐴𝑗 𝐹𝑖𝑗 𝐾𝑖𝑗 𝑃𝑖 = 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝𝑠 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛 𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑖
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑃𝑖 𝐴𝑗 = 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝𝑠 𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑡𝑜 𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑗
σ𝑗 𝐴𝑗 𝐹𝑖𝑗 𝐾𝑖𝑗 𝐹𝑖𝑗 = 𝑎 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑐ℎ 𝑖𝑠 𝑎𝑛 𝑖𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑒 𝑓𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑙 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒
𝐾𝑖𝑗 = 𝑠𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑜𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑐 𝑎𝑑𝑗𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 𝑖𝑗
 8

Unsmoothed values
5
Smoothed values
F Factor

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Travel Time
GRAVITY MODEL
EXAMPLE 12.4 Use of Calibrated F Values and Iteration
• Determine the number of zone-to-zone trips through two iterations.
Table 12.9 Trip Productions and Attractions for a Three-Zone Study Area
Zone 1 2 3 Total
Trip Productions 140 330 280 750
Trip Attractions 300 270 180 750

Table 12.10 Travel Time between Zones (min)

Zone 1 2 3
1 5 2 3
2 2 6 6
3 3 6 5
 Table 12.11 Time Travel versus Friction Factor
Time (min) F
1 82
2 52
3 50
4 41
5 39
6 26
7 20
8 13
Note: F values were obtained from the calibration process.
Table 12.12 Zone-to-Zone Trips: First Iteration, Singly Constrained
Zone 1 2 3 Computed P Given P
1 47 57 36 140 140
2 188 85 57 330 330
3 144 68 68 280 280
Computed A 379 210 161 750 750
Given A 300 270 180 750

To create a doubly constrained gravity model where the computed attraction equal the given
attractions, calculate the adjusted attraction factors according to the formula:

𝐴𝑗𝑘 = 𝑎𝑑𝑗𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑛 𝑗, 𝑖𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑘

𝐴𝑗𝑘 = 𝐴𝑗 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑘 = 1
𝐴𝑗 𝐶𝑗𝑘 = 𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑛 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑗, 𝑖𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑘
𝐴𝑗𝑘 = 𝐴 𝑗(𝑘−1) 𝐴𝑗 = 𝑑𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑛 𝑗
𝐶𝑗(𝑘−1)
𝑗 = 𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟, 𝑗 = 1, 2, … , 𝑛
where 𝑛 = 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑠
𝑘 = 𝑖𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟, 𝑘 = 1, 2, … , 𝑚
𝑚 = 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑖𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠
Table 12.13 Zone-to-Zone Trips: Second Iteration, Doubly Constrained
Zone 1 2 3 Computed P Given P
1 34 68 38 140 140
2 153 112 65 330 330
3 116 88 76 280 280
Computed A 303 268 179 750 750
Given A 300 270 180 750
 GRAVITY MODEL
EXAMPLE 12.5 Selecting Singly or Doubly Constrained Gravity Model Results
A three-zone system with 900 home-based shopping productions is shown in Table 12.14. Zones 1 and 2
each generate 400 productions, while zone 3 generates 100 productions. Each zone contains a shopping mall with
300 attractions. The shopping mall in zone 1 can be easily reached due to the parking availability and transit
service. Thus, 𝐹11 , 𝐹21 , and 𝐹31 = 1.0. Parking costs at the shopping mall in zone 2 are moderate with some transit
Thus, 𝐹 12 , 𝐹22 , and 𝐹32 = 0.5 Parking costs at the mall in zone 3 is high and transit service is unavailable. Thus,
𝐹13 , 𝐹23 , and 𝐹33 = 0.2
Application of the singly constrained gravity model yields the results Table 12.15 and application of the
doubly constrained gravity model yields the results shown in Table 12.16.
Table 12.14 Home-Based Shopping Productions and Attractions
Zone Productions Attractions
1 400 300
2 400 300
3 100 300
Total 900 900
Table 12.15 Zone-to-Zone Trips: Singly Constrained Gravity Model
Zone 1 2 3 Computed P Given P
1 235 118 47 400 400
2 235 118 47 400 400
3 59 29 12 100 100
Computed A 529 265 106 900 900
Given A 300 300 300 900

Table 12.16 Zone-to-Zone Trips: Doubly Constrained Gravity Model

Zone 1 2 3 Computed P Given P
1 133 133 133 400 400
2 133 133 133 400 400
3 33 33 33 100 100
Computed A 300 300 300 900 900
Given A 300 300 300 900
Which of the results shown for the singly constrained gravity model and
for the doubly constrained gravity model are more likely to be the most
accurate?
SOLUTION:
Table 12.15 is more likely to be accurate if engineering judgment
suggests the occurrence of travel impedances and thus the friction
factors are more accurate than trip attractions. Table 12.16 is more
likely to be accurate if the attractions are more accurate than the
friction factors.
In practice, these judgments must be made based on the quality
of the data set. For example, if local land-use data had been recently
used to develop trip attraction rates whereas friction factors had been
borrowed from another area, then the selection of the doubly
constrained gravity model results in Table 12.16 is recommended.
GROWTH FACTOR MODELS
• used to forecast future trip patterns by adjusting an
existing trip matrix based on anticipated growth in trip
production and attraction.
𝑡𝑖𝑗 𝐺𝑗 where
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑡𝑖 𝐺𝑖
σ𝑥 𝑡𝑖𝑥 𝐺𝑥 𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝𝑠 𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑖 𝑡𝑜 𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑗
𝑇′𝑖𝑗 = 𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙
𝑡𝑖 = 𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑖
𝐺𝑥 = 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑥
𝐺𝑖 + 𝐺𝑗 𝑇𝑖 = 𝑡𝑖 𝐺𝑖 = 𝑓𝑢𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑖
𝑇′𝑖𝑗 = 𝑇𝑖𝑗 𝑡𝑖𝑥 = 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝𝑠 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑖 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑠 𝑥
2
𝑡𝑖𝑗 = 𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝𝑠 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑖 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑗
𝐺𝑗 = 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑧𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑗
GROWTH FACTOR MODELS
EXAMPLE 12.6 Forecasting Trips Using the Fratar Model

A study area consists of four zones (A, B, C, und D). An O-D

survey indicates that the number of trips between each zone is as
shown in Table 12.17. Planning estimates for the area indicate that
in five years the number of trips in cach zone will increase by the
growth factor shown in Table 12.18 on page 612 and that trip
generation will be increased to the amounts shown in the last
column of the table.
Determine the number of trips between each zone for future
conditions.
Table 12.17 Present Trips between Zones
Zone A B C D
A - 400 100 100
B 400 - 300 -
C 100 300 - 300
D 100 - 300 -
Total 600 700 700 400

Table 12.18 Present Trips Generation and Growth Factors

Zone Present Trip Growth Factor Trip Generation
Generation In Five Years
(trips/day)
A 600 1.2 720
B 700 1.1 770
C 700 1.4 980
D 400 1.3 520
Table 12.19 First Estimate of Trips between Zones
Zone A B C D Estimated Actual
Total Trip Trip
Generation Generation
A - 428 141 124 693 720
B 428 - 372 - 800 770
C 141 372 - 430 943 980
D 124 - 430 - 554 520
Totals 693 800 943 554

Table 12.20 Growth Factors for Second Iteration

Zone Estimated Trip Actual Trip Growth Factor
Generation Generation
A 693 720 1.04
B 800 770 0.96
C 943 980 1,04
D 554 520 0.94