Section (2)

Lecture(2) “Introduction to
Probability Theory “

Page 1 2
Probability 1

• Probability A value between 0 and 1 inclusive that

represents the likelihood a particular event happens.

• Access the text alternative for slide images.

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Some basic definitions
Random Experiment: A non deterministic experiment if
-It is possible to list out all possible of this experiment outcomes prior to conduct it.
-It is not known in advance, what will be the result of a performance of trial of such experiment
EX: flip a coin , A card is selected at random from a pack of 52 cards ,
Classical probability is based on the assumption that the outcomes of an experiment are
equally likely.
Number of favorable outcomes
Probability of an Event =
Number of all possible outcomes

Sample space: Sample space Ω: Collection of all possible outcomes of a random

experiment . Here, each outcome ω ∈ Ω.
The number of elements in sample space = ( 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠)𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠

An EVENT : is a subset of the sample space.

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 Example 2.:
For the experiment where I flip a coin three times in a row,
consider the
Event ( A )that I get exactly one T. Which outcomes are in this
event?
Solution: The subset of the sample space that contains all outcomes
with exactly one T is
{HHT,HTH,THH}.

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Calculating probabilities
The number of elements in sample space = ( 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠)𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠

=23 = 8
the probability of an event A occuring is

P(A) =
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝐴
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒
---------- Eq (2)
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝐴
IN EXAMPLE (2) the Probability of (A) =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒

3
=
8

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Certain and impossible events
If an event is a certainty, then its probability is one. In common language we often say
it is 100% certain (which is the same thing).
For example, in the coin tossing experiment, let C be the event ‘obtaining a head or a tail’.
The sample space is {H, T}. The event is {H, T}.
So P(C) = 2 ÷2 = 1.
Example
If a normal die is rolled, what is the probability that the number showing is less than 7?
Solution
Sample space = {1,2,3,4,5,6} Event = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Hence the probability (number is less than 7) = 6 ÷6 = 1.
If an event is impossible, then its probability is zero.
Example
Find the probability of throwing an 8 on a normal die.
Here there are no possible outcomes in the event. i.e. Sample space = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Event = {}, i.e. the empty set.) means the set with no elements(
Hence the probability of throwing an 8 is 0 ÷6 = 0.

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Complementary events
If the event is neither impossible nor certain, then clearly its probability is between 0
and 1.
Two events are complementary if they cannot occur at the same time and they make
up the whole sample space.
Example
When a coin is tossed, the sample space is {H, T} and the events H = ‘obtain a head’
and T = ‘obtain a tail’ are complementary.
If we calculate the probabilities we find that
P(H) = 1÷2 , P(T) = 1÷2 and P(H) + P(T) = 1.
Example
A die is rolled. Let A be the event ‘a number less than 3 is obtained’ and let B be the event ‘a number of 3 or more
is obtained’.
Then P(A) = 2÷6 , and P(B) = 4÷6 .
So that P(A) + P(B) = 1.

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Example
A marble is drawn at random from a bag containing 3 red, 3 blue, 5 green and 1 yellow
marbles. What is the probability that it is not green?
Solution
There are two ways of doing this problem
Method A:
We can work out the probability that the marble is green:
P(G) = 5÷12 .
Since a marble is either green or not green, the probability that it is not green,
P(G)=1 − (5÷12 ) = 7÷12 .
Method B:
Alternatively, we can find the probability that the marble is red, blue or yellow which is
7÷12 (by counting from the diagram above).

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Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events are incompatible, disjoint or mutually exclusive when the occurence of one precludes the occurrence of the
other, i.e. they can never occur at the same time. For example, we can never have the head side and the tail side of a
coin face up at the same time.
Example
Suppose a die is tossed. Then the events E = ‘obtaining an even number’ and O = ‘obtaining a one’
are incompatible.
Notice that P(throwing an even number or one) = P(1, 2, 4, 6) = 4÷6 = P(E) + P(O)

We may now state the addition law for mutually exclusive events.
If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, the probability of A or B happening,
denoted P(A 𝖴 B), is:
P(A 𝖴 B) = P(A) + P(B).
If The two events are not mutually exclusive, therefore we
cannot add the probabilities

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Addition Rule (Union):
For any two events A and B, P(A 𝖴 B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B).
This rule works even if A and B are mutually exclusive. If A and B are mutually exclusive
then P(A ∩ B) = 0, and A and B cannot happen together, so that P(A 𝖴 B) = P(A) +P(B)

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Basic Properties of Probability
1. The probability of a sure event or certain event is 1.

2. The probability of an impossible event is 0.

3. The probability of an event E is a number P(E) such that 0 ≤ P (E) ≤ 1. Probability is always a positive number.

4. If A and B are 2 events that are mutually exclusive, then P(A⋃B) = P(A) + P(B).

5.An elementary event is an event having only one outcome. The sum of the probabilities of such events of an
experiment is 1.

6. The sum of probabilities of an event and its complementary event is 1. P(A) + P(A’) = 1.

7. P(A⋃B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A⋂B).

8. P(A⋂B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A⋃B) .

9. If A1, A2, A3 ,………, An are mutually exclusive events, then P(A1 ⋃ A2 ⋃ A3… ⋃ An) = P(A1) + P(A2 ) + ………. + P(An)

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 Multiple choice questions

1.What is a random experiment?

A. An experiment with unpredictable outcomes.
B. An experiment that always gives the same result.
C. An experiment that can be performed only once.
D. An experiment with a fixed result.
2.The sample space of flipping a coin is:
A. {0, 1}
B. {H, T}
C. {1, 2}
D. {HH, TT}

3.What is an event in probability?

A. A single outcome.
B. A subset of the sample space.
C. The entire sample space.
D. None of the above.
 Multiple choice questions

4.What is the probability of getting a tail when flipping a fair coin?

A. 0.25
B. 0.75
C. 0.50
D. 1.00
5.If a six-sided die is rolled, what is the probability of getting an even
number?
A. 1/2
B. 1/6
C. 1/3
D. 2/3
6.What is the probability of drawing a blue ball from a set of 3 green, 2
blue, and 1 red ball?
A. 1/6
B. 2/6
C. 3/6
D. 5/6
 Multiple choice questions

7.If an event is impossible, its probability is:

A. 0
B. 0.5
C. 1
D. Undefined
8.The sum of probabilities of an event and its complement is:
A. 0
B. 1
C. 0.5
D. 2

9.What is the probability of rolling a 7 on a normal die?

A. 0
B. 1/6
C. 1/7
D. 1
 Multiple choice questions
10.Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if:
A. They can happen at the same time.
B. The occurrence of one prevents the occurrence of the other.
C. They have no outcomes in common.
D. Both B and C.
11.The probability of obtaining heads or tails in a coin toss is:
A. 0.25
B. 0.50
C. 1
D. 0.75
12.If you roll two dice, how many possible outcomes are there?
A. 12
B. 24
C. 36 Total outcomes=6×6=36
D. 48
 Multiple choice questions
13.The probability of a sure event is:
A. 0
B. 0.5
C. 1
D. 0.75
14.What is the probability of drawing a red ball from a bag of 3 red, 3 blue, 5 green,
and 1 yellow balls?
A. 1/12
B. 1/3
C. 3/12
D. 2/4
 Multiple choice question

15.If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, then the probability of A
or B is:
A. P(A) + P(B)
B. P(A) * P(B)
C. P(A) - P(B)
D. P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)
16.Which of the following is not a basic property of probability?
A. The probability of a certain event is 1.
B. The probability of an impossible event is 0.
C. Probability of any event is always less than 0.
D. The probability of an event plus its complement equals 1.
 Multiple choice questions
17.What is the probability of picking a green or blue ball from a set of 3
red, 5 green, and 2 blue balls?
A. 5/10
B. 7/10
C. 3/10
D. 1/10
18.In the event of drawing one ball from a bag containing 3 red, 3 blue, 5
green, and 1 yellow ball, the probability of not drawing a green ball is:
A. 7/12
B. 5/12
C. 1/12
D. 0
 Multiple choice questions
19.What is the probability of drawing an ace from a standard deck of
cards?
A. 1/13
B. 1/26
C. 1/52
D. 4/52
20.The probability of flipping a coin and getting heads twice in a row is:
A. 1/4
B. 1/2
C. 1/8
D. 3/4
 Multiple choice questions

21.What is the complement of the event "rolling an odd number" on a

die?
A. Rolling an even number
B. Rolling a 6
C. Rolling a 1 or 3
D. Rolling a prime number
22.In a class of 30 students, 18 are girls and 12 are boys. If a student is
chosen at random, what is the probability that the student is a girl?
A. 18/30
B. 12/30
C. 9/30
D. 1/2
 True or false
1. An event is always equal to the sample space. False
2. The probability of any event is always a value between 0 and 1,
inclusive. True
3. The probability of getting an odd number on a fair six-sided die is
0.5.True
4. Complementary events cannot occur together. True
5. If two events are complementary, their probabilities sum to 2.False
6. Two events are independent if the occurrence of one affects the
occurrence of the other. False
 True or false
7.The addition rule for mutually exclusive events is P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B).
True
8.If two events A and B are independent, then P(A | B) = P(A).
True
9.For mutually exclusive events, P(A ∩ B) = 0.
True
10.If a die is rolled, the probability of getting a number greater than 3 is 1/2.
True
11.If two dice are rolled, the probability of getting a sum of 10 is 3/36.
True
12.The probability of rolling an even number on a die is 1/3.
False
 Essay question
Consider two events:
Event A: Rolling a 2 on a six-sided die.
Event B: Rolling an even number on a six-sided die.
a) Are these events mutually exclusive? Calculate P(A∪B)
Answer
Answer