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CR Sir

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6 views4 pages

CR Sir

Uploaded by

Nushrat Shoity
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Question: what is dynamical or mathematical

technique of tropical cyclone forecasting?


Classify the dynamical techniques and describe
each class with example?
Dynamical (or mathematical) techniques for tropical
cyclone forecasting are based on physical principles and
equations that describe the atmosphere's behavior.
These techniques use the laws of physics, such as the
conservation of momentum, mass, and energy, to
simulate the movement and evolution of cyclones. The
dynamical forecasting techniques can be classified into:

1.Barotropic Models
These models simplify the atmosphere by assuming it is
vertically uniform (barotropic), meaning that weather
changes are mainly due to horizontal winds. They are
simpler and computationally less expensive but are
limited in their ability to handle complex atmospheric
structures.
Example: Sanders Barotropic Model: One of the earliest
barotropic models that forecasts cyclone movement
based on atmospheric steering winds and Coriolis force.
The Beta and Advection Model (BAM): Combines
barotropic dynamics with the beta effect, which
represents the variation of the Coriolis force with
latitude. It improves cyclone track forecasts by
considering this effect along with advection (wind flow).

2.Baroclinic Models
Baroclinic models are more advanced, accounting for
vertical variations in temperature and pressure. These
models simulate more complex atmospheric phenomena,
including interactions between different layers of the
atmosphere.
Example: The Movable Fine Mesh Model (MFM): Used by
the U.S. National Hurricane Center, it allows for finer-
scale predictions by adjusting the grid to focus on the
cyclone, improving track forecasts.
GFDL Multiply-nested Model: Developed by the
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, it includes
detailed physics like ocean interaction, cloud processes,
and multiple nesting levels for fine-scale simulation of
tropical cyclones.
3.Global Circulation Models (GCMs)
GCMs simulate the entire global atmosphere and oceans
using complex equations. These models can capture
large-scale influences like the interaction between
tropical cyclones and mid-latitude systems.
Example: The Global Forecast System (GFS): A widely
used GCM that provides global weather predictions and
is utilized in hurricane forecasts. It simulates both short-
term and long-term atmospheric processes.

4.Statistical-Dynamical Models
These hybrid models combine dynamical equations with
statistical techniques. They use historical cyclone data to
identify typical cyclone behaviors under certain
atmospheric conditions, which are then fed into
dynamical models to improve accuracy.
Example: The National Hurricane Center's Statistical-
Dynamical Technique: Combines historical cyclone tracks
and numerical models to forecast cyclone trajectories
more accurately. This approach balances computational
efficiency with physical realism.
Each class of dynamical models offers different levels of
complexity and accuracy, with more advanced models
(like baroclinic and GCMs) providing better long-term
forecasts, though at a higher computational cost.

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