which method is better 3pma/3pwma

Week sales 3pma FE abs FE (FE)^2 %error

1 17
2 21
3 19
4 23 19 4 4 16 17.3913
5 18 21 -3 3 9 16.66667
6 16 20 -4 4 16 25
7 20 19 1 1 1 5
8 18 18 0 0 0 0
9 22 18 4 4 16 18.18182
10 20 20 0 0 0 0
11 15 20 -5 5 25 33.33333
12 22 19 3 3 9 13.63636
19
0 2.666667 10.22222 14.35661
MAE/MADMSE MAPE

Exponential Smoothing Technique

F(t+1)=Alpha*Yt+(1-alpha)Ft
0.4
F2 17 alpha=0.4 FE abs FE (FE)^2 %error
F3 21 17 4 4 16 19.04762
F4 19 18.6 0.4 0.4 0.16 2.105263
F5 23 18.76 4.24 4.24 17.9776 18.43478
F6 18 20.456 -2.456 2.456 6.031936 13.64444
F7 16 19.4736 -3.4736 3.4736 12.0659 21.71
F8 20 18.08416 1.91584 1.91584 3.670443 9.5792
F9 18 18.8505 -0.850496 0.850496 0.723343 4.724978
F10 22 18.5103 3.489702 3.489702 12.17802 15.86228
F11 20 19.90618 0.093821 0.093821 0.008802 0.469107
F12 15 19.94371 -4.943707 4.943707 24.44024 32.95805
22 17.96622 4.033776 4.033776 16.27135 18.33534
18.86824 0.586303 2.717904 9.957057 14.26101
 3pwma FE abs FE (FE)^2 %error

19.2 3.8 3.8 14.44 16.52174

21.4 -3.4 3.4 11.56 18.88889
19.7 -3.7 3.7 13.69 23.125
18 2 2 4 10
18.4 -0.4 0.4 0.16 2.222222
18.2 3.8 3.8 14.44 17.27273
20.4 -0.4 0.4 0.16 2
20.2 -5.2 5.2 27.04 34.66667
3pma
17.9 4.1 4.1 16.81 18.63636 21.5
21
19.26667 0.066667 2.977778 11.36667 15.92596 20.5
MAE MSE MAPE 20
19.5
19
ng Technique
18.5
18
17.5
17
16.5
0 2 4 6 8
 3pma

4 6 8 10 12 14
Year sales
1 21.6 there is a trend
2 22.9
3 25.5
4 21.9 sales
5 23.9 35
6 27.5
7 31.5 30
8 29.7
25
9 28.6
10 31.4 20

15

SUMMARY OUTPUT 10

Regression Statistics 5
Multiple R 0.874526 strong realtionship
0
R Square 0.764796 0 2 4 6 8
Adjusted R 0.735396
Standard E 1.958954
Observatio 10
H0:all b are 0 H1: all b are not zero
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 99.825 99.825 26.01303 0.00093
Residual 8 30.7 3.8375
Total 9 130.525

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 20.4 1.33822 15.24413 3.4E-07 17.31406 23.48594 17.31406 23.48594
Year 1.1 0.215674 5.100297 0.00093 0.602656 1.597344 0.602656 1.597344
y-20.2+1.1x
forecast fo 32.5

Aassumptions :model is linea

sales

6 8 10 12
 DEPEN INDEP INDEP INDEP
Year Quarter sales Q1 Q2 Q3
1 1 125 1 0 0
2 153 0 1 0
3 106 0 0 1 SUMMARY OUTPUT
4 88 0 0 0
2 1 118 1 0 0 Regression Statistics
2 161 0 1 0 Multiple R 0.893791
3 133 0 0 1 R Square 0.798863
4 102 0 0 0 Adjusted R 0.76115
3 1 138 1 0 0 Standard E 11.32475
2 144 0 1 0 Observatio 20
3 113 0 0 1
4 80 0 0 0 ANOVA
4 1 109 1 0 0 df
2 137 0 1 0 Regression 3
3 125 0 0 1 Residual 16
4 109 0 0 0 Total 19
5 1 130 1 0 0
2 165 0 1 0 Coefficients
3 128 0 0 1 Intercept 95
4 96 0 0 0 Q1 29
6 1 124 1 0 0 Q2 57
2 153 0 1 0 Q3 26
3 182 0 0 1
4 211 0 0 0 y=95+29Q1+57Q2+26Q3
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
 Chart Title
180
160
140
120
100
correlation coefficient only used for 2 variables 80
coeff of det
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4

Quarter sales Q1
SS MS F Significance
h0: all b are F0,h1:all b are not zero
8150 2716.667 21.18259 8.104E-06
2052 128.25
10202 Chart Title
250
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
5.064583 18.75771 2.566E-12 84.26356 105.7364 84.26356 105.7364 200
7.162402 4.048921 0.000931 13.81639 44.18361 13.81639 44.18361
7.162402 7.958224 5.935E-07 41.81639 72.18361 41.81639 72.18361 150
7.162402 3.630067 0.002252 10.81639 41.18361 10.81639 41.18361
100

y=95+29Q1+57Q2+26Q3
50
124
152
0
150 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1
95
Quarter
 Chart Title

3 4 5

ter sales Q1 Q2 Q3

Chart Title

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Quarter sales
Year Quarter Sales Y Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
1 1 4.8 1 0 0 1
2 4.1 0 1 0 2
3 6 0 0 1 3
4 6.5 0 0 0 4
2 1 5.8 1 0 0 5
2 5.2 0 1 0 6
3 6.8 0 0 1 7
4 7.4 0 0 0 8
3 1 6 1 0 0 9
2 5.6 0 1 0 10
3 7.5 0 0 1 11
4 7.8 0 0 0 12
4 1 6.3 1 0 0 13
2 5.9 0 1 0 14
3 8 0 0 1 15
4 8.4 0 0 0 16
5 1
2
3
4
 Sales Y
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.988066
R Square 0.976274
Adjusted R 0.967647
Standard E 0.216664
Observatio 16

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 4 21.248 5.312 113.1581 7.376E-09
Residual 11 0.516375 0.046943
Total 15 21.76438

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 6.06875 0.162498 37.34666 6.123E-13 5.711095 6.426405 5.711095 6.426405
Q1 -1.363125 0.157454 -8.657272 3.06E-06 -1.70968 -1.01657 -1.70968 -1.01657
Q2 -2.03375 0.155108 -13.11186 4.655E-08 -2.37514 -1.69236 -2.37514 -1.69236
Q3 -0.304375 0.153682 -1.980545 0.073201 -0.642628 0.033878 -0.642628 0.033878
Q4 0.145625 0.012112 12.02333 1.14E-07 0.118967 0.172283 0.118967 0.172283

y=6.07-1.36*qrt 1-2.03Qtr2-0.304Qrt 3+0.146t

Q1 7.192
Q2 6.668
Q3 8.54
Q4 8.98875
 Sales Y

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Year Quarter Sales Y Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 seas avera
1 1 4.8 1 0 0 1 5.725
2 4.1 0 1 0 2 5.2
3 6 0 0 1 3 7.075
4 6.5 0 0 0 4 7.525
2 1 5.8 1 0 0 5 6.38125
2 5.2 0 1 0 6
3 6.8 0 0 1 7
4 7.4 0 0 0 8
3 1 6 1 0 0 9
2 5.6 0 1 0 10
3 7.5 0 0 1 11
4 7.8 0 0 0 12
4 1 6.3 1 0 0 13
2 5.9 0 1 0 14
3 8 0 0 1 15
4 8.4 0 0 0 16
 4

seas indexdeseasonliactual forecast

0.89716 5.350218 4.8
0.814887 5.03137 4.1
1.108717 5.411661 6 SUMMARY OUTPUT
1.179236 5.512043 6.5
0.89716 6.464847 5.8 Regression Statistics
0.814887 6.38125 5.2 Multiple R 0.927917
1.108717 6.133216 6.8 R Square 0.86103
1.179236 6.275249 7.4 Adjusted R 0.851104
0.89716 6.687773 6 Standard E 0.274522
0.814887 6.872115 5.6 Observatio 16
1.108717 6.764576 7.5
1.179236 6.614452 7.8 ANOVA
0.89716 7.022162 6.3 df SS MS F Significance F
0.814887 7.240264 5.9 Regression 1 6.537023 6.537023 86.74116 2.238E-07
1.108717 7.215548 8 Residual 14 1.055074 0.075362
1.179236 7.123256 8.4 Total 15 7.592097

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%
Intercept 5.202642 0.143961 36.13934 3.176E-15 4.893877
Q4 0.13866 0.014888 9.313494 2.238E-07 0.106728
y=5.20264173657934+0.138659795696549*time

Year 5 Qrt Time DS ForecasSI Forecast

1 17 7.559858 0.89716 6.7824
2 18 7.698518 0.814887 6.273425
3 19 7.837178 1.108717 8.689212
4 20 7.975838 1.179236 9.405395
Significance F

Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
5.511407 4.893877 5.511407
0.170591 0.106728 0.170591
Data on sales of shampoo, promotion expenses and promotion by competition
Competiti
Promotio
Sale on
Month n error mod sq error %error
Quantity Promotio
Expenses
n
1 3002666 105 1
2 4401553 145 0
3 3205279 118 1
4 4245349 130 0
5 3001940 98 1
6 4377766 156 0
7 2798343 98 1
8 4303668 144 0
9 2958185 112 1
10 3623386 120 0
11 3279115 125 0
12 2843766 102 1
13 4447581 160 0 3503418 944163 944163 8.91444E+11 21.22869
14 3675305 130 0 3623828 51477.42 51477.42 2649924427 1.40063
15 3477156 130 0 3563307 -86150.92 86150.92 7421980443 2.477626
16 3720794 140 0 3585963 134830.7 134830.7 18179308674 3.623707
17 3834086 167 1 3542250 291835.6 291835.6 85168007700 7.611608
18 3888913 148 1 3611596 277317.1 277317.1 76904764709 7.130967
19 3871342 150 1 3570858 300483.8 300483.8 90290534095 7.761749
20 3679862 129 0 3660275 19587.25 19587.25 383660362.6 0.532282
21 3358242 120 0 3608291 -250049 250048.9 62524460726 7.445828
22 3361488 122 0 3641629 -280141 280141 78478979881 8.333839
23 3670362 135 0 3619804 50557.83 50557.83 2556094511 1.377462
24 3123966 110 1 3652408 -528442 528442.1 2.79251E+11 16.91574
25 4634047 165 0 3675758 958288.9 958288.9 9.18318E+11 20.67931
26 3772879 129 1 3691297 81582.08 81582.08 6655636321 2.16233
27 3187110 120 1 3699428 -512318 512318.1 2.6247E+11 16.07469
28 3093683 112 1 3675258 -581575 581574.6 3.38229E+11 18.79878
29 4557363 162 0 3622998 934364.7 934364.7 8.73037E+11 20.50231
30 3816956 140 1 3683271 133684.6 133684.6 17871567821 3.502387
31 4410887 160 0 3677275 733612 733612 5.38187E+11 16.63185
32 3694713 139 0 3722237 -27524.08 27524.08 757575163.3 0.744959
33 3822669 141 1 3723475 99194.33 99194.33 9839515765 2.594897
34 3689286 136 0 3762177 -72890.92 72890.92 5313085733 1.975746
35 3728654 130 1 3789493 -60839.42 60839.42 3701434620 1.631672
36 4732677 168 0 3794351 938325.9 938325.9 8.80456E+11 19.82654
37 3216483 121 1 3928410 -711927 711927.3 5.06841E+11 22.13372
38 3453239 128 0 3810280 -357041 357041 1.27478E+11 10.33931
39 5431651 170 0 3783643 1648008 1648008 2.71593E+12 30.34082
40 4241851 160 0 3970688 271162.6 271162.6 73529146600 6.392553
41 3909887 151 1 4066369 -156482 156482.1 24486642404 4.002215
42 3216438 120 1 4012413 -795975 795974.8 6.33576E+11 24.74709
43 4222005 152 0 3962370 259635.4 259635.4 67410549588 6.149576
44 3621034 125 0 3946629 -325595 325595.4 1.06012E+11 8.99178
45 5162201 170 0 3940490 1221712 1221712 1.49258E+12 23.66648
46 4627177 160 0 4052117 575059.8 575059.8 3.30694E+11 12.42788
47 4623945 168 0 4130275 493670.3 493670.3 2.4371E+11 10.67639
48 4599368 166 0 4204882 394485.7 394485.7 1.55619E+11 8.576954
10.53918

We Sell Beauty (WSB) is a manufacturer and distributor of of health and beauty products. WSB is
interested in forecasting demand for ‘Kesh’, their shampoo brand which is sold in 100 ml bottles.
WSB believes that the monthly demand for ‘Kesh’ depends on the promotion expenditure (in
thousands of rupees) and whether the competition was on promotion or not during that month.
The data for 48 months (starting from January 2012) is given. The table has the quantity of 100 ml
bottles sold during the month, promotion expenses (in thousands of rupees) incurred by the
company, and whether the competition was on promotion (value of 1 implies that the competition
was on promotion and 0 otherwise).

Sale Quantity
6000000

5000000

4000000

3000000

2000000

1000000

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

how to get best value of alpha using solver

the 3 diff smotthing methods and use all of them and find best

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.933333
R Square 0.871111
Adjusted R 0.865383
Standard E 228710
Observatio 48

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 1.59E+13 7.95E+12 152.0691 9.546E-21
Residual 45 2.35E+12 5.23E+10
Total 47 1.83E+13

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 490226.9 268450.9 1.826132 0.074469 -50461 1030914.909 -50461 1030915
Promotion 24936.3 1823.733 13.67322 1.239E-17 21263.11 28609.48297 21263.11 28609.48
Competitio -219472 77168.16 -2.844071 0.006678 -374896 -64047.03924 -374896 -64047
 0.2 error weekly-7,monthly- 12,quarterly- 4 for wpma

3002666
f2 3002666 1398887
f3 3282443.4 -77164.4
f4 3267010.52 978338.5
f5 3462678.216 -460738
f6 3370530.573 1007235
f7 3571977.658 -773635
f8 3417250.727 886417.3
f9 3594534.181 -636349
f10 3467264.345 156121.7
f11 3498488.676 -219374
f12 3454613.941 -610848
f13 3332444.353 1115137
f14 3555471.682 119833.3
f15 3579438.346 -102282
f16 3558981.877 161812.1
f17 3591344.301 242741.7
f18 3639892.641 249020.4
f19 3689696.713 181645.3
f20 3726025.77 -46163.77
f21 3716793.016 -358551
f22 3645082.813 -283595
f23 3588363.85 81998.15
f24 3604763.48 -480797
f25 3508603.984 1125443
f26 3733692.587 39186.41
f27 3741529.87 -554420
f28 3630645.896 -536963
f29 3523253.317 1034110
f30 3730075.253 86880.75
f31 3747451.403 663435.6
f32 3880138.522 -185426
f33 3843053.418 -20384.42
f34 3838976.534 -149691
f35 3809038.427 -80384.43
f36 3792961.542 939715.5
f37 3980904.634 -764422
f38 3828020.307 -374781
f39 3753064.045 1678587
f40 4088781.436 153069.6
f41 4119395.349 -209508
f42 4077493.679 -861056
f43 3905282.543 316722.5
f44 3968627.035 -347593
f45 3899108.428 1263093
f46 4151726.942 475450.1
f47 4246816.954 377128
f48 4322242.563 277125.4
Upper 95.0%