Example 2.

4: A Coin Tossing Game

Click the button to recalculate the spreadsheet and generate a new trial.

Coin Probability
Cumulative You may change the Example by
Probability changing any of the values with a
green background.
Head 0.50 0.50
Tail 0.50 1.00 Random Number Seed 12345
The 'Reset Seed & Run' button sets
Number of Tosses = 100 and generates a new trial using tha
Simulation Table
Step State Output Output
Result of Harry's Tom's
Toss Toss Winnings Winnings
1 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
2 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! Frequency for Harry versus Tom
3 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! Ahead (or Even)
4 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
5 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 1
6 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 0.8
Occurrences
7 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
8 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 0.6
9 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 0.4
10 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
0.2
11 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 0 0 0
12 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 0
13 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! Harry ahead Tom ahead Even
Upper limit of bin
14 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
15 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
16 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! Harry's Winnings (Losses) #VALUE!
17 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! Tom's Winnings (Losses) #VALUE!
18 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
19 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
20 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
21 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
22 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
23 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
24 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
25 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
26 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
27 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
28 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
29 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
30 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
31 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
32 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
33 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
34 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
35 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
36 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
37 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
38 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
39 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
40 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
41 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
42 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
43 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
44 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
45 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
46 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
47 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
48 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
49 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
50 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
51 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
52 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
53 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
54 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
55 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
56 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
57 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
58 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
59 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
60 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
61 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
62 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
63 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
64 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
65 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
66 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
67 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
68 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
69 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
70 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
71 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
72 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
73 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
74 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
75 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
76 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
77 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
78 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
79 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
80 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
81 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
82 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
83 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
84 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
85 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
86 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
 87 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
88 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
89 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
90 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
91 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
92 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
93 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
94 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
95 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
96 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
97 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
98 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
99 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
100 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
 Frequency for Harry ahead,
Tom Ahead, and Even
Bins Frequency
Harry ahead 0
Tom ahead 0
Even 0
et Seed & Run' button sets the RN seed
erates a new trial using that seed.

y versus Tom
Even)

0 0

m ahead Even
of bin
Experiment: Repeated Trials of Harry's and Tom's Coin Toss Game
Number of Trials: 400
Link to Measure of Performance:
Name of Measure: Link
Number of Tosses out of 100 on
which Harry is Ahead. 0
Click on Run Experiment to genera
the distribution of the 400 samples of Nu
Response Table Multi-Trial Summary
Number Tosses w/ Relative
Trial Harry Ahead Bins Frequency Frequency
1 1 0 to 5 63 15.8%
2 100 45 to 55 19 4.8%
3 70 95 to 100 46 11.5% Histogram for % of G
4 92 is Ahea
5 87 About 1/2 of th
6 44 Average 48.6 40%
7 1 Median 50
8 57 30%

(% of Games)
Occurrences
9 90 Minimum 0
10 68 Maximum 100 20% 15.8%
11 6
12 35 10%
13 50 The Relative Frequencies are the percent of
14 9 games (trials) for which Harry is ahead very 0%
15 5 little (5 or fewer of the 100 tosses), ahead 0 to 5
16 11 about 1/2 the time, and ahead most of the time Bin (No. tosses o
17 43 (95 or more tosses) during a game.
18 76
19 63
20 6 Clearly, the 3 possibilities under Bins are NOT the only possibilities. That's why th
21 78 Number of Trials, nor the relative frequencies to 100%. For example, Harry could
22 6 tosses in a game, but we are not interested in that situation.
23 40
24 84 We are comparing the relative likelihood of three extremes cases:
25 64 (A) Harry is ahead on 5 or fewer of the tosses, meaning that Tom is ahead mos
26 3 versus:
27 3 (B) the case where Harry is ahead on 45 to 55 of the 100 tosses in a game (one
28 95 either Tom is also ahead about 1/2 of the time OR they are even on many of the ot
29 66 versus:
30 97 (C) the case where Harry is ahead on 95 or more of the 100 tosses (and hence
31 76
32 52 We cannot get any idea of the relative likelihood by playing just one game (o
33 32
have to play the game many times (that is, many trials, given by "Number of Trials"
34 64
Do these results contradict, in any way, the 50:50 odds for heads versus tails on a
35 56
36 61
37 69
 have to play the game many times (that is, many trials, given by "Number of Trials"

Do these results contradict, in any way, the 50:50 odds for heads versus tails on a

38 25
39 88
40 83
41 64
42 57
43 95
44 65
45 87
46 35
47 34
48 98
49 39
50 69
51 95
52 24
53 77
54 37
55 73
56 100
57 13
58 6
59 100
60 8
61 100
62 91
63 81
64 91
65 43
66 91
67 80
68 57
69 18
70 12
71 100
72 73
73 2
74 79
75 25
76 0
77 13
78 1
79 16
80 79
81 67
82 7
83 89
84 100
85 0
86 17
87 28
88 11
 89 0
90 17
91 3
92 20
93 32
94 1
95 87
96 0
97 44
98 73
99 3
100 97
101 58
102 59
103 97
104 30
105 39
106 59
107 92
108 68
109 57
110 19
111 100
112 0
113 66
114 82
115 50
116 20
117 1
118 76
119 54
120 100
121 76
122 31
123 70
124 23
125 45
126 84
127 13
128 92
129 9
130 3
131 87
132 15
133 64
134 35
135 43
136 78
137 71
138 39
139 95
140 9
141 99
142 48
143 44
144 84
145 3
146 100
147 0
148 4
149 93
150 28
151 98
152 4
153 26
154 99
155 5
156 34
157 64
158 9
159 64
160 1
161 16
162 23
163 92
164 56
165 52
166 30
167 73
168 0
169 60
170 34
171 0
172 7
173 67
174 21
175 16
176 65
177 16
178 27
179 16
180 17
181 24
182 1
183 84
184 0
185 12
186 44
187 6
188 56
189 94
190 14
191 75
192 21
193 100
194 16
195 99
196 76
197 96
198 99
199 11
200 76
201 91
202 19
203 84
204 5
205 78
206 72
207 94
208 49
209 3
210 10
211 74
212 35
213 93
214 1
215 1
216 87
217 0
218 100
219 1
220 34
221 88
222 13
223 43
224 60
225 72
226 91
227 80
228 55
229 5
230 27
231 84
232 7
233 83
234 100
235 64
236 93
237 95
238 39
239 8
240 24
241 2
242 67
243 0
244 33
245 96
246 18
247 25
248 60
249 0
250 0
251 78
252 27
253 97
254 99
255 87
256 11
257 5
258 78
259 68
260 43
261 16
262 92
263 71
264 6
265 0
266 43
267 0
268 92
269 17
270 92
271 73
272 92
273 48
274 7
275 12
276 33
277 97
278 81
279 19
280 0
281 100
282 12
283 10
284 93
285 5
286 60
287 98
288 62
289 10
290 69
291 60
292 81
293 9
294 96
295 12
296 82
297 99
298 47
299 62
300 57
301 69
302 59
303 52
304 1
305 0
306 46
307 24
308 97
309 100
310 40
311 82
312 98
313 12
314 71
315 12
316 4
317 40
318 10
319 92
320 91
321 91
322 0
323 67
324 84
325 4
326 69
327 1
328 26
329 100
330 51
331 93
332 25
333 48
334 18
335 80
336 2
337 21
338 87
339 0
340 24
341 12
342 94
343 80
344 7
345 84
346 5
347 96
348 88
349 0
350 88
351 99
352 93
353 98
354 3
355 12
356 46
357 80
358 0
359 2
360 89
361 35
362 99
363 10
364 6
365 0
366 90
367 24
368 95
369 0
370 83
371 20
372 59
373 80
374 97
375 61
376 72
377 6
378 54
379 34
380 16
381 45
382 15
383 1
384 1
385 32
386 7
387 5
388 73
389 74
390 90
391 99
392 92
393 1
394 65
395 19
396 0
397 94
398 47
399 11
400 89
s Game
You may change any value in green and re-run the experiment.
After making changes, click on Run Experiment.
The cell with this color is linked to the output of a trial, and is
the source of the data in Column B under Number Tosses w/ Harry
Ahead.
Click on Run Experiment to generate 400 trials, and to create a histogram to show
stribution of the 400 samples of Number of Tosses out of 100 on which Harry is Ahead..
Seed for Random Numbers 12345

Histogram for % of Games for which Harry

is Ahead a Bit,
About 1/2 of the Time, or a Lot
40%

30%
(% of Games)
Occurrences

20% 15.8%
11.5%
10% 4.8%

0%
0 to 5 45 to 55 95 to 100
Bin (No. tosses on which Harry is ahead)

only possibilities. That's why the frequencies do not add to the

0%. For example, Harry could be ahead on 33 of the 100
situation.

ee extremes cases:
meaning that Tom is ahead most of the time,

of the 100 tosses in a game (one trial), which would mean that
they are even on many of the other tosses,

re of the 100 tosses (and hence Tom on 5 or fewer),

d by playing just one game (one trial of 100 tosses). We

ials, given by "Number of Trials").

odds for heads versus tails on a coin toss?

ials, given by "Number of Trials").

odds for heads versus tails on a coin toss?

Explanation of Model Logic: