TECHNICAL PAPER 9

ENERGY

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 different sources, was around 30 MTOE (Million Tons Oil
Equivalent), and the consumption increased to above 38
MTOE by 2016-17 despite the limited supplies and
disruptions. Figure 1 depicts the changing energy mix of
9 ENERGY Punjab:

Access to affordable, sustainable, and efficient sources of In five years span, the of Petroleum products’
energy is a ballooning challenge for Pakistan and for consumption have bumped up from 38% to 41% in overall
Punjab, in particular. The province has to explore and energy consumption. Punjab energy mix is converging to
develop multiple resources of energy for fueling its fossil fuels largely due to limited and curtailed supplies of
growing economy and population. The importance of natural gas. This changing trend also being supported by
localized solutions has increased after 18th Amendment the electricity load shedding which has kept the share of
and its consequent implications in growing energy gaps. electricity 13% without any change. Owing to the limited
supplies and continuous disruptions from the network-
Despite all the efforts and investments made, after 18th based energy, both natural gas and electricity, the
Amendment, in energy infrastructure, Punjab still has consumers have largely shifting towards alternate fuels
serious gaps to fill in this aspect. Punjab’s economy is which driving the consumption of imported energy
unable to perform on its optimum level due to a upward overall.
mismatched energy infrastructure coupled with forced
electricity load shedding, prolonged gas disruptions and Petroleum Products
dollar-linked energy pricing mechanisms. Predominately Punjab consumes above 60% of total Pakistan’s oil
fossil fuels and now the natural gas too are import consumption which has an increasing trend with a rate of
oriented thus both energy prices and efficient distribution above 8% per annum as compared to 6% of overall energy
are the major concerns for Punjab’s energy requirements. consumption. The increasing dependence on fossil fuel is
further denting the provincial competitiveness dimensions
9.1 ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND CHANGING MIX and country overall economic progress as a result. Vehicles
on roads are growing which is the major oil consuming
Punjab’s energy consumption is augmenting very sharply sector of Punjab with 61% share in its oil consumption
with a changing mix. In just course of five years, from 2012 followed by Power sector, Industry and Domestic sectors.
to 2017, the total energy consumed in Punjab has risen by Punjab’s agriculture has consumed above 90% of the oil
30% i.e. 6% per annum on average. The energy being consumed by the whole Agriculture sector in
consumption patterns also corroborate, somehow, with Pakistan that is mainly due to Diesel consumption in
the economic progression of the province in this period. Tractors and Tubewells across Punjab.
During 2011-12 total energy consumption, comprising

Figure 9.1 Changing energy consumption mix of Punjab

Source: Authors’ calculations using Pakistan Energy Year Book, 2017 and 2012

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Figure 9.2 Punjab oil consumption mix

Source: Authors’ calculations using Pakistan Energy Year Book, 2017 and 2012

Natural Gas indigenous gas production stands around 2 Billion Cubic

Overall, Natural Gas consumption in Punjab had been Feet per Day (bcfd) against demand of 4 bcfd. There are
declining since 2008 until 2016 due to limited supplies. The very limited gas field in Punjab which produce gas and
declining trend was compensated, at somehow, by therefore Punjab relies either on the other provinces
imported RLNG (Regasified Liquid Natural Gas) and its resources to meet demand or through imported gas.
consequent delivery to the Industrial sector of Punjab Punjab demand of natural gas is increasing whereas the
starting 2016 onwards. Nevertheless, Punjab still supply is depleting and therefore the gap is augmenting
maintains above 51% share in overall country’s gas and the curtailments get even worse in winter season.
consumption. Overall, during 2012-17, the natural gas
consumption has increased by 15% in Punjab averaging There are limited consumers in the Punjab across different
merely 3% compared to country’s average less than 1%. sectors, especially in industrial chains, opting for RLNG due
As depicted in the following figure, Punjab Industry is to non-availability of indigenous gas. The price differential,
largest gas consuming sector followed by domestic and however, is the major factor and keep on increasing as the
power sectors. Transport sector share has reduced to 3% RLNG rate is determined in parity with US dollar on
only due to non-availability of gas at CNG stations. monthly basis. The below figure depicts that how the
differential between RLNG and network gas (indigenous) is
The increasing gap between demand and supply of natural soaring, and thus posing serious challenges for Punjab its
gas being met by RLNG by Punjab. Overall, Pakistan's deprived consumers, in particular.
Figure 9.3 Punjab gas consumption mix

Source: Authors’ calculations using Pakistan Energy Year Book, 2017 and 2012

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Figure 9.4 Increasing gas price for Punjab industry

Source: Authors’ calculations using OGRA and PSO monthly data

It is very important to highlight that the competitiveness Figure 9.5 Natural Gas price for industry
of Industries’ related factors should be safeguarded if
Punjab wants to focus on structural transformation
through industrial development. In competitiveness Gas
supplies play an important role for the industrial sector.
Punjab-based Industries cannot perform in international
markets with high cost of doing business especially the
high-priced utilities. Following figure portrays the
challenges Punjab-based Industry is facing in shape of gas
rates;

In addition to the challenge of high prices, the growing gas

consumption is denting on the overall gas infrastructure of
the province. There is a strong likelihood that the province
gas demand shall be multiplied within a very short period.
For instance, data reveals that Punjab domestic consumers
rely majorly on gas and firewood for cooking purposes and
yet less than 40% population having gas connection.
Source: Various sources from respective Regulatory
Authorities

Interestingly, above 15% of rural population have access to

the natural gas. Most heaters are gas-based which
requiring extensive gas supply if served in full. Other than
cooking, gas is being used for space heating. However,
87.7% of the population still have no access to heating
appliances which means that the same shall be increased
gradually. Major urban districts such as Rawalpindi and
Lahore have high heating appliances rates i.e. 57% and
28% respectively. Districts in the Southern and the Eastern
parts have very low heating appliances mainly due to
climatic conditions.

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The districts of Lahore, and Faisalabad have better access supply scenario (indigenous supplies only) are given as
to gas with 91.5%, and 55% respectively. However, the under. The projections of the natural gas demand and
people of districts of Mianwali and Layyah rely on mostly supply suggest that Pakistan is likely to face a huge gap of
on firewood. Pakistan has major tugs on gas consumption 6.5 Bcfd by the year 2028-29. The scenario calls for
from different sources such as Industry and Transport. immediate measures today that should be taken to bridge
Providing gas to such districts will require planning for this gap.
excess demand. The gas network will have to improve to
provide gas in a sustainable matter. Following graph is
depicting the gas accessibility rate of Punjab on district
levels.

The current supply of Natural gas is around 4 Bcfd.

Whereas, the constrained demand is around 7Bcfd,
resulting in a demand / supply gap of around 3Bcfd. The
indigenous supplies of natural gas are expected to reduce
drastically in the coming years. Projections w.r.t. demand

Figure 9.6 Gas Accessibility Rate

Source: PSLM 2015

Figure 9.7 Demand Supply gap of Natural Gas In view of severe energy constraints, there is a dire need
to increase energy supplies and conserve the existing
supplies. In this regard, pricing is also one of the tool for
the judicious utilization of energy source.

Electricity
Despite several-hour-long load shedding spans, Punjab
electricity consumption still posted a modest growth in
last five years. Overall, Punjab electricity consumption
grew by 6% from 2012 to 2017 on yearly average. The
trend is almost similar to overall Pakistan. If the electricity
supplies had not curtailed, Punjab consumption would
have grown in double-digit. Electricity infrastructure in
Punjab is best-in-class if compared with Punjab this is the
reason why over 95% of population has access to
Source: OGRA Report electricity (PSLM, 2015). There are very few remote areas
in Punjab which are not electrified yet.

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Looking into detail of electricity consumption mix, Punjab electricity demand stands above 9,000 MW while the
is largely supplying electricity to domestic consumers current supply not above 7,000 MW resulting in 4-6 hours
which represent above 51% as shown in the below figure. load shedding (NEPRA).
When compare to Punjab population ratio with electricity
consumption ratio in domestic sector, the below figure
reveals that the Punjab-based inhabitants are energy
intensive and consumes more electricity in per capita
terms. Moreover, Punjab-based Industry is the second
largest consumer with 27% share  the largest in Pakistan
with 69% share in overall Pakistan Industrial consumption.
Punjab is the largest power consumer in the country, its

Figure 9.8 Punjab electricity consumption mix

Source: Authors’ calculations using Pakistan Energy Year Book, 2017 and 2012

Table 9.1: Electricity demand of Discos in Punjab 2017-18 (MW)

Year LESCO GEPCO FESCO IESCO MEPCO

2011-12 4,148 2,004 2,500 2,072 3,178
2012-13 4,364 2,109 2,631 2,180 3,344
2013-14 4,621 2,233 2,786 2,308 3,540
2014-15 4,930 2,382 2,972 2,462 3,777
2015-16 5,281 2,552 3,184 2,638 4,046

Source: NEPRA Report 2016

Similar to the gas, electricity tariff also affecting economic cents/KWh. Other than the electricity tariff, Punjab is also
dynamics of Punjab. With increasing share of fossil fuels worst in terms of disruptions and load shedding in
and other expensive generation sources, the electricity international standings.
prices are bumping up. The impact of increasing electricity
tariff is very significant on all segments of the economy, Distribution and Consumption
especially the industrial sector with exports orientation. Despite the fact that Punjab electricity distribution is
For instance, Pakistan’s electricity tariff is the highest in better as its DISCOs are more efficient and advanced, the
the region with over US 12 cents/KWh for Industrial sector. province is facing serious challenges when sees a
This high-priced electricity has subjugated Punjab based significant growth in future. Punjab has to make its
industry from growth as the regional peers are enjoying electricity infrastructure more progressive and state-of-
very low tariffs i.e. India, Bangladesh and China where the-art in meeting all challenges. Following maps are
average per unit price for industry is below US 9

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depicting Punjab’s DISCOs with their consumption and Nevertheless, the industrialized regions, GEPCO and
consumers in different categories. FESCO area have witnessed the highest growth with 36%
and 28% during the period of 2011-12 to 2015-16 with
7% and 6% annual average respectively. This strong
As depicted in Figure 9.8, the electricity consumption by growth in industrial sector is the reason of growing
the Industrial sector in Punjab has posted an increase of growth as well as the reliance on electricity instead of gas
above 3% (annual average). The overall electricity because of supply curtailments. This trend will be highly
consumption; however, posted a growth above 5% during visible and further to augment in coming decades as the
the same period as depicted in Table 9.1. This trend is not Industrial development is highly energy intensive and
very encouraging keeping industrialization in to context. require multiple energy sources for its production

Figure 9.9 Punjab energy infrastructure and electricity distribution

Source: Urban Unit

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Figure 9.10 Industrial sector electricity consumption growth

Source: NEPRA 2018

Figure 9.11 Pakistan year wise demand & shortfall

Source: NEPRA 2018

While keeping the accelerated growth in to context,

Punjab electricity consumption growth would be much
Figure 9.11 shows that continuous improvement in higher in coming decades. Though the electricity
generation, Installed capacity, demand and shortfall. consumption per capita is highest in Punjab, if compared
Though the data shows that the country has managed to with Pakistan, the intensity would further increase as most
overcome the gap; however, in order to meet the ever- of the population is still not complemented with energy
growing demand of Energy we should enhance the pace of intensive appliances i.e. Air Conditioners. Only 7% of the
improvement and increase the share of renewable energy population has access to air conditioners (PSLM, 2015).
in our energy mix. The demand for air conditioning is expected to go up with
increasing middle income group of the society. The

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percentage of people using air conditioners is likely to Following figure highlights on the electricity consumption
reach 20-30% which would require more energy as a intensity across Punjab in district level if we take Air
consequent. Conditioning a proxy:

The present electricity infrastructure is not adequate

therefore gaps are indicating to balloon further. Therefore,
it is prudent to invest in cost effective renewable energy
sources and improve the existing energy infrastructure.

Figure 9.12 Use of air conditioners in Punjab

Source: PSLM 2015

Lahore electricity consumption is on the highest and its For Electricity, starting from generation to distribution and
households have highest ratio of air conditioning facilities. regulation all major players are federal not provincial. In
Lahore is the highest but there is still a significant gap as it parallel; however, Punjab has developed various
stands at only 20%. The electricity consumption in the institutions and successfully implemented number of
domestic sector will increase if the buying capacity of initiatives for electricity generation in Pakistan. Overall,
consumer increases a fact that will go up. Punjab has to following figures are showing the electricity generation
be very active in undertaking appropriate planning for capacity of Punjab, with both Federal and Provincial
meeting future electricity demand keeping sustainability initiated, as of 2015.
and affordability in the focus. Though, there are several
federal institutions and regulatory regimes are involved in
the power sector, Punjab has to play a very active role in
streamlining and aligning them for a collaborative
development. The advent of Pak China Economic Corridor
has provided a window of opportunities. Previously
important projects had not implemented due to lack
financial resources; however, CPEC is now investing
heavily for developing coal, wind and solar energy projects
in Pakistan and several in Punjab too.

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Figure 9.13 Electricity installed capacity in Punjab

Source: NEPRA Report 2015

The Punjab’s district wise electricity generation by source Thermal is the major source of energy in Punjab with most
breakup is indicated by the above shows that districts like of the plants located in the northeastern side of the
Muzaffargarh, Narowal, Mandi Bhaudin, Sheikhupura, province. There is limited renewable energy sources such
Lahore, Kasur Khanewal, Jhang and Gujranwala generate as solar and wind resources. The Hydel potential has not
energy through gas and oil. Attock is primarily generating been developed optimally thus leading to stagnant growth
electricity through Hydel resources while Sahiwal and in hydel energy generation. Nevertheless, In generation
Faisalabad are utilizing mostly coal as fuel for electricity. capabilities, Punjab is now on track to produce a sizeable
Renewable energy and Nuclear are scanty amongst the electricity from renewable sources by 2023.
regions.

Figure 9.14 Renewable energy plants in Punjab by 2023

Source: NEPRA Report 2016

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 9.2 ADDRESSING GAPS WITH SUSTAINABLE AND PV Solar
South Punjab’s solar insolation ranges from 4.5 to 5
INDIGENOUS ENERGY SOLUTIONS kWh/m2/day which is good potential for the use of PV
Punjab is blessed huge renewable resources, such as good solar generation for both individual household systems as
solar insolation, hydropower resources in the Northern well as micro- and mini-grids. PV solar panels are arguably
areas, a large livestock population that generate biomass;
the easiest generation technology to apply in off-grid areas
a massive irrigation network that has a huge power
of Punjab for rural electrification. It has been identified a
generation capacity, and strong winds in certain areas of
the province. Many of these technologies are also suitable growing private sector in solar technologies, including
for off-grid electrification, and therefore a very low impact traders of solar components, such as panels, batteries,
on the existing infrastructure, preliminary resource charge controllers, and the such, as well as companies
assessment of Punjab indicates that it has great renewable with technical capacity to install larger systems, of 30-50
energy potential for energy access applications. kW. Moreover, some companies are actually building large
PV solar farms of over 10 MW that would be grid
Solid Waste connected. Therefore, local technical capacity in Punjab is
Punjab being the most urbanized province has a huge not a challenge for the development of solar-powered
potential in solid waste management based energy mini-grid systems (ADB, 2014).
solutions. As per the government directive however,
overall production capacity for Solid waste plants has been
capped at 250 megawatts for the entire country; share of
each province and federal territory is capped at 50MW for
a notified tariff. In Pakistan, more than 20 million tons of
municipal solid waste is generated with annual 2.4%
growth. All major cities – Islamabad, Lahore, Karachi,
Peshawar and Quetta – are facing enormous challenges in
tackling the problem of urban waste. Thousands of people
die every year due to waste-related diseases.
Considering the environmental issues and acute energy
challenges, Punjab has to act and utilize all its solid waste
to generate clean energy. Most of the countries in the
region have already set up municipal waste power plants
and they are reaping dual benefits with the disposal of
garbage and generation of electricity through this garbage.

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Figure 9.15 Solar energy potential in Punjab

Source: Urban Unit

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 Biogas
According census done in 2010, there are more than 30
Biomass
million headcounts of cattle in Punjab and the theoretical
Biomass is considered to be one of the key renewable
potential for biogas-fired power stations could reach up to
resources of the future at both small and large scale levels.
230 MW and or equivalent gas, if the whole cattle manure
It already supplies above 15% of the world’s primary
were utilized1. In reality, the actual production would
energy consumption. Recently, the Economic
certainly be much lower, but it would still make sense in
Coordination Committee of the Cabinet (ECC) approved
medium-scale biogas and cogeneration plants. The Punjab
the ‘Framework for Power Co-generation’ for bagasse and
government has already commissioned a feasibility study
biomass-based sugar industry projects. Under this
of a 200 kW biogas-fired power plant in Kasur district,
framework, 1,500 to 2,000 MW is forecasted to be
although the project was not pursued forward. The highest
generated in the short term, and thus letters of intent
concentrations cattle in the province are in the so-called
(LOIs) have been issued to a number of projects in Punjab.
‘dairy districts’ of Kasur, Okara, Sahiwal, Shiekhupura,
Chiniot, Faisalabad, and Jhang.

The waste from animals can be utilized for production of

24 million m3 biogas. The number of animal farms with 2-
50 and more animals is given in Figure 9.16:

Figure 9.16 Animal Farms in Punjab

Source: Energy Department, Government of the Punjab

1ENERGY ACCESS ASSESSMENT PUNJAB (Pakistan) ADB

2014

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Table 9.2 Biomass availability in Punjab for energy generation

Gross Available for

Area Under Net Collectable Consumed
Quantity of Power
Waste Type Crop Waste Locally
Waste Generation
(M. Acres) (M. Ton) (M. Ton) (M. Ton) (M. Ton)

Cotton Cotton Stalk 5.705 11.43 10.288 5.144 5.144

Wheat Wheat Straw 16.154 18.63 16.764 15.088 1.676

Rice Rice Straw 4.229 4.869 4.382 2.191 2.191

Rice Rice Husk 1.39 1.252 0.25 1.002 -

Sugarcane Sugarcane Waste 1.897 42.982 6.44 6.44 -

Corn Stalk 1.492 5.163 4.646 4.646 -

Source: Punjab Energy Department

Mini-Hydro wind farms being planned are large-scale grid connected,

More than 20% of electricity produced in Punjab is from using large wind turbines of over 500 kW each.
hydro power stations, and there is still large untapped
potential in the province. The irrigation system of Pakistan Regarding small-scale wind-powered technologies, there is
is the world’s largest contiguous irrigation system and still a gap to be filled; but the limited wind resources in
there are many potential sites that allow Punjab to most of Punjab province, as well as inefficient wind
capitalize and generate a sizable electricity. The Energy technologies for small scale systems, make difficult the
Department of the Government of Punjab has compiled a promotion and investment in wind turbines for small-scale
list of 55 potential sites on Punjab’s canals for small hydro off-grid systems.
stations. These potential sites offer 1.14 to 5.63 meter
high falls in canals, with electricity generation potential
ranging from 11 to 11.9 MW. Meanwhile, there have been
recent developments in the province worth noting. The
Government of Punjab has issued LOIs to private investors
for the establishment of 10 small hydro projects with a
cumulative capacity of 142 MW at different locations. The
micro Hydel potential of Punjab is around 7,000 MW.

Wind

There is no doubt that certain areas of Pakistan, such as

the Gharo Corridor in Sindh, have great potential for wind
power development. Recent wind maps developed by the
Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) have
attracted the attention of private project developers to
invest in wind farms for power generation. However, the

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Figure 9.17 Wind energy corridors in Punjab

Source: Urban Unit

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Figure 9.18 Renewable energy potential areas in Punjab

Source: Urban Unit

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9.3 Targets for a green and competitive Punjab

Focus Area 2027 2037 2047

Petroleum products’ Share:

Petroleum Share: 25% Petroleum Share: 20%
30%
Change in overall Energy Renewables: 10% Renewables: 20%
Renewables: 5%
Consumption Mix Electricity, Coal and Natural Electricity, Coal and Natural
Electricity, Coal and Natural
Gas: 65% Gas: 40%
Gas: 50%

5% of the total motor 10% of the total motor 30% of the total motor
Electric Vehicles on the road
vehicles vehicles vehicles

15% network energy saved 10% network energy saved 5% network energy saved
Energy savings across
through conservation and through conservation and through conservation and
sectors
technology shifts technology shifts technology shifts

9.3 KEY POLICY FOCUS AND STRATEGIC improve the consistency of supply to the industrial and
domestic sector.
AREAS
Efficient consumption of available energy sources
Though the energy is mainly a federal subject, as per the
present dynamics, the Province needs to advocate its Use of high-efficiency domestic appliances should be
issues to the respective forums and also introduce promoted to minimize the demand side inefficiencies.
localization solutions and interventions where if possible. Highly energy intensive appliances and equipment should
Following are key points Punjab to focus on: be replaced with modern technologies through
government backed incentives. Introduction of taxes
Affordable Energy Supplies should be made on inefficient usages including appliances
and machineries. Similarly, the use of inefficient vehicles
Energy prices need to be rationalized and brought to a including diesel and conventional petrol engines needs to
level which will enable our production sectors, particularly be discouraged. Import levies on hybrid and electric cars
the industry, to become competitive in international should be immediately reduced to promote their use and
markets in face of stiff competition from other regional in the meanwhile Punjab should develop domestic
economies. Currently the energy prices in Punjab are capacity for manufacturing hybrid and electric vehicles by
much higher than other regional economies such as China, identifying and enabling Automobile industrial clusters in
Bangladesh and India which is hampering our the province.
competitiveness and hence the growth of export-oriented
Industry in the province. The export-oriented industry Industrial units in Punjab in all major sectors are using
need to be supported, on emergency basis, in terms of outdated and energy intensive technologies. Up gradation
energy prices and quality of supplies to improve the export of current technologies and incorporation of high-value
competitiveness of Punjab. added technologies should be encouraged. Modern
technology, high value added and low energy intensive
Import oriented energy production, which is currently the sectors need to supported. Punjab need to promote off
main component in the energy production mix of Pakistan, grid and localized energy generation solutions for rural
needs to be discouraged and domestically available and remote areas through private sector and
resources should be developed and utilized on a national communities’ participation.
level. Punjab will have to champion the use of domestically
available resources such as coal to the Federal government Optimum utilization of indigenous and renewable energy
as import of expensive thermal fuels for energy and resources
electricity production not only drive up electricity costs but
also is a heavy burden on the foreign exchange reserves of Support for Solar PV on large scale for domestic
the country. consumers through net metering and banking facilities. In
order to overcome the high capital investments, Solar
Distribution and transmission losses of electricity due to panels manufacturing industries should be incentivized
inefficient transmission systems further aggravate the and installed with allied infrastructure and support
electricity demand and supply gap leading to more hours leveraging CPEC and Chinese technologies. Agriculture and
of load shedding. These losses need to be curbed to municipal wastes need to be fully converted into energy
through feasible and economic instruments. Punjab also

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needs to explore power generation opportunities from its
Coal resources and installing plants at mine mouths. Mini
and micro hydro plants should also be installed by
supporting private sector and local communities on run of
the river and canals with high streams (55 potential sites
already identified). Wind and other renewable sources to
be supported wherever feasible and accessible.

Improved Infrastructure and Energy Quality

Along the generation and energy production efforts,

Punjab also need to lobby and support the upgradation of
transmission and distribution networks to aid the
industrial development. With present infrastructure as it is
prone to losses, jerks and disruptions, Punjab based
Industry cannot sustain. All energy sources’ quality has to
be best-in-class for making Punjab a transformed and
competitive investment destination.

Identification and development of energy corridors

Leveraging the spatial and geological advantages, Punjab

has also to identify and develop its energy corridors to
support high energy demands in future. For instance, as
per current scenarios, Wind and Solar corridors are already
identified which have to be developed at higher pace. For
solar energy district Rahim Yar Khan, Bahawalpur, DG
Khan, Lodhran and Rajanpur have great potential and for
Wind energy Chakwal, DG Khan and Rajanpur have high
potential according to Global Energy Atlas. The potential
of these areas can be used at least to fulfill the demands of
local domestic consumer initially and later expending the
generation system and macro level.

In addition to Solar and Wind, Punjab has to speed-up the

exploration of potential energy resources i.e. Natural gas,
shale gas, oil and coal for sustainable and feasible energy
options.

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