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PERT Problem Sample

Sample problem on PERT

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17 views

PERT Problem Sample

Sample problem on PERT

Uploaded by

Abdul Nazar
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Network Analysis (PERT/CPM) 793 Example 2 : A certain project is composed of nine activities where time estimates are given below : Activity Expected duration (week) : | optimistic | most itely | Pessimiscie_| 7 (a) Draw the project network and trace all the possible paths from it. What is the expected. Project length ? [UP TECH MBA 2004-05] . (b) Calculate the variance and standard deviation of the project length. (© What is the probability that the project will be completed : (@ at least 4 weeks earlier than expected time. (ii) no more than 4 weeks later than expected time. (@) Ifthe project date is 29 weeks, what is the probability of not meeting the due date ? (©) What due date has about 99% chance of completing the project ? Solution : (a) Project Network diagram. Fig. 19.48 Here all possible paths are (1-2=5=7; 4=2=5-6-7; 1-3-5-%; 1-3-5-6-7; 1-4-6-7. The expected activity time and variance of each activity i — j are calculated in the following table : 794 Operations Research Table 19.5 1-2 1 1 7 2 1 1-3 3 5 aT 5 0.45 1-4 | 2 2 8 3 1 2-8 1 1 1 2 0 355 | 3 6 9 6 1 4-6 2 5 8 5 z 5-6 4 6 14 t 2.79 5-7 3 7) wi 7 1.77 6-7 6 8 10 8 0.45 To find expected earliest start time E;, for tail event of each activity i Taking E, = 0, we have Ey =E, +tg, =0+2=2 Ey ttag =0+5=5 E4 =E, +teyq =0+3=3 {Ej + tej = +e oe {Bi eis) Bom MexdBit tag) = Max {E2 +t¢95,E3 +tegs} = Max {Eq +teqg.Es +teso} = Max. {2+1, 5+ 6} =11 = Max {3+5,11+7} =18 Ey = Maxey +tei7} = Max {Es +t,57,E6 +teg7} = Max {11+7, 18+ 8} = 26 To find expected latest finish time L, for head event of each activity i — j Taking L, = Ey = 26, We have Lg = Ly ~tegy = 26-8 = 18 Ug = Mini {Lj ~te5j} = Mini (bg ~tes6:L7 ~tes7}s Jn =Mini {18-7,26-7}=11 Lg = Lg ~tegg = 18-5 = 13 Ly =Lg ~tegs =11-6=5 La = Ls ~teg =11-1=10 L =a {Lj ~taj} = Mini {Lz -ta, Lz —ta3,L4 ~taad Mini (10-2, 5-5, 13-3} =0 L3,Es =Ls,Eg=Lgand Ey = Ly, alsoforthese activities I; 80, the activities 1- 3, 3-5, 5~6 and 6~7 are critical activities. v Network Analysis (PERT/CPM) 795, ‘The critical path is 1-3-5-6-7 and expected project length, T, = 26weeks. (b) For the project length, variance = 6? = sum of variances for critical activities,1 - 3, 3-5, 5- 6 and 6-7 = 0.45 +1+ 2.79 + 0.45 = 4.69 weeks «. standard deviation = 6, = 469 = 2.17 weeks. , © 0 The probability of completing the project, 4 weeks earlier than expected time ie, in time T, = 26~ 4 = 22 weeks is given by Prob. z< te = Prob 2< 22 -1.84) 2.17 = 0.5~ 0.4671 = 0.1329 (From normal distribution table) ie. 13.29% (ii) And probability of completing the project 4 weeks later than expected time ie,, in time T, = 26+ 4= 30weeks, is given by = 0.5 + 0.4671 = 0.9671 (From normal distribution table) ie, 96.71% (d) fT, = 29 weeks, then prob of completing the work by due date is given by T,- r Prob. }Z < Prob {z < 22=28 - 1 39 2.17 = 0.5 + 0.4162 = 0.9162 (From normal distribution table) i.e, 91.62% Hence the probability of not meeting the project date of 29 weeks = 1—0.9162 = 0.0838 i.e. 8.38% (©) IFT, is the project time when the due date has about 99% chance, then T.-Te T, - 26] Prob. {Z < =+—}=0: .) { a | 99 (appr.) a T, -26 ‘ cm 2.33 (from normal distribution table) => T, = 26+ 2.17 x 2.33 = 26+ 5.06 = 31.06 weeks = 31 weeks (appr.)

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