290 Experientia 44 (1988), Birkh~iuser Verlag, CH-4010Basel/Switzerland Redews

Common sense is a powerful weapon. It filters out most of cian, a physicist will summon a photographer. Bear in mind
the nonsense that can consume time and funds in science. that a conjuror may also be waiting in the wings...
However, in cases where there may seem to be merit in an
unusual claim, no scientist can rightly ignore the claims pre-
sented. It is at that point that a scientist must move carefully 0014-4754/88/040287-0451.50 + 0.20/0
and call in experts to assist. A chemist will call in a statisti- 9 BirkhS.userVerlag Basel, 1988

Astrology
S. Carlson
Bldg. 50, Rm. 348, Lawrence Berkeley Labs, Berkeley (California 94720, USA)
Summary. As a divinatory practice, astrology is without equal in both its colorful history and modern day popularity.
Astrology has grown, over thousands of years, into a huge and ornate superstructure that lacks a central design. Although
astrology has been dimly veiled by its occult mystique for centuries, the light of modern day inquiry has shown its substance
to be mostly illusionary and revealed its foundation to be the shakiest possible: that of self-justification and anecdotal
evidence. Despite the many claims of its practitioners and followers, extensive investigation-has revealed astrology to be a
great teetering monument to human gullibility.
Key words. Astrology; horoscope; natal chart; Sun sign; Mars effect; planetary heredity.

Introduction
Astrology, the oldest and most entrenched of all the 'occult Even in the 20th century, astrologers have remained strong
arts', has been a source of entertainment, controversy and in number and powerful in influence, and their art has devel-
livelihoods, for nearly four thousand years. It is not just an oped into many diverse forms: Natal astrology, Horary as-
idle pastime, taken seriously by only a few. Astrology per- trology, Sabian astrology, Humanistic astrology, Medical
vades our popular culture. It has captivated the imaginations astrology, Astro-cartography, to name a few. To escape the
of tens of millions and influenced decisions of great import. stigma of ancient superstition, today's astrologers present
Great battles have been waged, empires have fallen, and themselves as modern professionals. The briefcase, three
fortunes made and lost on the advice of astrologers. Al- piece suit, and computer are the modern answer for the dust
though harassed by the Church and attacked by skeptics covered satchel, long robes, and astrolab of old. But chang-
throughout history, astrology has risen in modern times to ing external trappings does not alter substance. The basic
become a world industry, affecting the lives of millions every beliefs of today's astrologers were passed down from distant
day. times without change. Astrology is still essentially medieval.
Although first conceived by the Babylonians circa Astrology has millions of followers worldwide. Every year,
2000 B.C., astrology has been adopted and modified by international astrological conferences, boasting attendance
many cultures. That astrology developed in relation to an- of hundreds to thousands, are held in the United States, the
cient cosmology is undeniable. Our distant ancestors popu- United Kingdom, Europe, Australia, and India. Europe has
lated the heavens with the divine beings. And since they at least 18 major astrological associations; the U.S. has four
believed the divine to be keenly interested and involved in associations with over 150 local chapters. Though disagree-
human affairs, these peoples watched the skies with great ing on the number of full-time astrologers there are in the
interest and expectation. Certainly, they observed some cor- United States, most U.S. associations' estimates range be-
respondences between celestial events and life on Earth. Cal- tween one and ten thousand. Many of these individuals
endars which foretold the planting, harvesting, and hunting advance their craft by giving seminars and writing 'how to'
seasons were calibrated by celestial occurrences. These peo- books, of which more than 12,000 titles reside in the U.S.
ples also observed 28-day cycles in both the human female Library of Congress.
and the Moon. Eclipses and the appearance of comets, dra- Assuming that there are between one to ten thousand full-
matic events in an otherwise changeless sky, terrified many time U.S. professionals, and that each of these ekes out a
cultures and were attributed to direct action by the Gods. marginal living of $10,000 per year (many make significant-
From such observations, our ancestors inferred that celestial lymore), then astrology is a ten to one hundred million
happenings foreshadowed the course of all human affairs. dollar per year industry in the U.S. For every full time
Specially appointed observers watched the night sky and, astrologer there are probably ten part-timers and fiftY seri-
from the perspectives of their various religious traditions, ous students. Adding their revenues to the money made from
interpreted how what they saw related to life on Earth. thousands of books and tens of thousands of magazine sales,
In medieval times, astrologers resided in nearly every king's one thing becomes obvious: Astrology is big business.
court. Called upon to interpret history in terms of astrologi- On realizing the size of the business and the degree to which
cal influences and divine meaning from the appearance of astrologers affect their clients' lives, one may become justifi-
comets, supernovae, and other dramatic astronomical ably concerned. Some people decide whether to get married
events, court astrologers became politically powerful men. on the advice of astrologers. Medical astrologers advise the
Their advice on foreign policy, health and medicine, and the clientele on what medical treatment they should or should
military campaigns which forged both medieval Europe and not receive. 'Astro-cartographers' frequently counsel clients
the Far East shaped our history and forever changed the to move to other parts of their country, and even to emigrate
world. to where the astrological influences will supposedly be more
Refiews Experierltia 44 C[988), Birkhfiuser Verlag, CH-4010Basel/Switzerland 291

favorable. Career choices, business ventures, how many chil- Astrological theories and beliefs
dren to have, in fact very important issues in many people's
lives are decided on by astrological counseling. Clearly, if
someone takes this kind of advice seriously, it can have a All astrologers are united in the belief that knowing the
profound effect on one's well-being and that of one's family. positions of the 'planets', (all planets, plus the Sun, Moon,
And it is being taken seriously by many thousands in the and other objects that astrologers define) enables them to
West and millions in the Far East every year. make accurate statements about life on Earth. They believe
A typical astrological counseling session, lasting about an that ancient peoples discovered subtle connections between
hour, costs between $ 50-$ 200, and often even more. For the planets and all life on Earth, and passed this knowledge
their fee, astrologers claim to provide a very special type of down. The mechanism of these relationships is left unspeci-
counseling. Many astrologers hold themselves to be better fied. Although some astrologers do try to invoke gravity,
than conventional counselors, for in addition to their coun- electromagnetism, 'planetary vibrations' etc., to explain how
seling skills, they believe they possess 'arcane knowledge' astrology functions, most admit ignorance. They simply
that enables them to gain more information about their cli- know, they say, that astrology works.
ents than could a skilled non-astrological counselor. The Astrologers' deductions come from studying 'horoscopes',
mystique of this occult knowledge instills in their clients the pictures which show the positions of the planets and constel-
same reverence usually reserved for clergy. Thus, clients take lations as seen from some place and time on Earth. An as-
their astrologers' advice very seriously. trologer's counsel is largely based on a horoscope, called a

2 S T T ~ 3L4
25-F~ o5 - - lcTbo5
56
3--r"~- 16 9 2-7 7b
V 25-~-fll ~ ZS d"b,"

off r oq:FO~

-vse5
)2j | oz d o l

tfl o5 .z5+ oe , ff q~
Figure 1.a A 'natal chart' showingthe position of various astrological believeyour natal chartcontainsdetailedinformationaboutyour charac-
objects as seen from the place and time of someone's birth. Astrologers ter and destiny.
292 Experientia44 (1988), Birkhiuser Verlag, CH-4010 Basel/Switzerland Reviews

g%
,) A /X .Y- Z ",,/

') oo

() 0 c;
C} E]
Q Q
,/ 7~ Q Q 7~-
b,--4
) Q c;
"V Q

Figure 1. b A 'table of aspects' showing the angular separations between

the planets in the natal chart. This complicatedchart is an indispensable
part of modern astrology.

'natal chart', derived from the place and time of a person's Defining the signs with respect to the vernal equinox has lead
birth. A sample natal chart is shown in figure 1 a. astrology into some difficulty. The Earth can be thought of
The Earth moves in a plane, called the 'ecliptic plane', as a large spinning top. If the Earth traveled alone in space,
around the Sun. Although the stars reside at vastly different its axis would stay forever fixed in one direction. However,
distances from us, they appear to sit on a large 'celestial the constant tug from the Sun and Moon causes the Earth's
sphere' centered about the Earth as shown in figure 2. The axis to slowly drift, or 'precess'. As the axis shifts, so does the
horoscope is derived by noting the apparent position of as- celestial equator. Thus, the position of the vernal equinox
trological objects with respect to both the celestial sphere slowly moves with respect to the background stars. Although
and the Earth's horizon. this precession is very slow, only 1/72 o per year, the vernal
The Sun appears to reside in one of twelve constellations that equinox has shifted over the centuries so much that the signs
ring the ecliptic plane. As the Earth moves in its orbit, the of the zodiac no longer correspond to the background con-
Sun appears to move, at a rate of about one per month, stellations for which they were named. Most of the sign of
through these background constellations. Astrologers be- Aries now overlaps the constellation of Pisces, for example.
lieve that the constellations in which the Sun resided at the Thus, if the newspaper horoscopes tell you that your Sun
time of your birth strongly influences your personality. sign is Aries, odds are that the Sun was really in the constel-
Astrologers divide the Sun's path into twelve 30 ~ sectors, lation of Pisces when you were born.
called the 'signs of the zodiac' : Aries, Taurus, Gemini, Can- This presents modern astrologers with the problem of which
cer, Leo, Virgo, Libra, Scorpio, Sagittarius, Capricorn, zodiac they should use: the Sidereal zodiac which references
Aquarius, and Pisces. The signs are so named because, when the planets to the background stars, or the Tropical zodiac
Ptolemy first established the Western system of astrology in which references the planets to the vernal equinox. The
140 A.D., they corresponded roughly to the twelve constella- choice is fundamental and there is no agreement. Two as-
tions that happened to reside in the Sun's annual path. trologers using different zodiacs will generally come up with
The first sign, Aries, begins at the position of the Sun on the contradictory conclusions about the same client. In fact,
first day of spring. This 'vernal equinox' is located by consid- neighboring signs carry many nearly opposite character as-
ering the Earth at the center of the celestial sphere. As shown sociations. Thus, the precession has caused two nearly oppo-
in figure 2, the axis of the Earth's rotation is tilted so the site meanings to be applied to the same sections of sky.
ecliptic plane does not cut the Earth straight through its Clearly, both systems cannot be correct.
equator. If we project the Earth's equator out to the celestial But this is only one of many fundamental disagreements
sphere it forms a ring called the 'celestial equator'. As the between astrologers. To keep track of the planets' locations
figure shows, the celestial equator crosses the ecliptic plane as the Earth rotates, astrologers divide the sky into 12 'hous-
in two places, the autumnal and vernal equinoxes. The sign es' which rotate with the Earth. Astrologers believe that the
of Aries begins at the spring crossing. effect a planet has on a person strongly depends on which
Reviews Expefientia44 (1988), Birkh~inserVeflag, CH-4010 Basel/Switzerland 293

]i[-= @ewti ni

d'L- Lexz
L ~ 15 ~ -Viv7o
~ 30*
Sun's
p~ath (ecliptic)
13~qo ~ W' : 5ar ~ = acana~

Vernal A = ~_o ~ "v'3=cap~?oca ~ =~]eCu~e

equinox ~ 15o o
~ = Aqcmriu5 ~o__=]2tu_I-o
00=1~ ~ 9-f : !~"~ee~ = I-~n~r Oode
Q = oi-~_,,-
,",oi~ voo','-@W
5pe-e-I~r'&a~ b f4~

Figure 2. The Earth sits at the center of the 'celestialsphere' on whichthe

stars, planets, and astrological signs appear to reside.

house it resided in when that person was born. F o r instance, lowing a set of rules. Others teach that chart interpretation
it is believed that Mars, if on the horizon when a person is is a gestalt process and emphasize the importance of intu-
born, affects that person differently than it would have had ition in deciding what factors are dominant in a given chart.
it been at its highest point in the sky. The rules astrologers Still others use the chart in conjunction with 'psychic' im-
use to divide up the sky constitute a 'house system'. There are pressions. Such interpretations range from mostly astrologi-
at least three fundamentally different house systems being cal interpretations with only a little bit of'psychic' informa-
widely used today, all of which lead to different interpreta- tion, to mostly 'psychic' use of the chart for inspiration.
tions of a person's personality. Two of these, the Placidean As a field of knowledge, astrology is a quagmire of contra-
and Koch systems, fail to define houses for the 12.5 million dictions. The many different schools of interpretation use
people born above a latitude of 66.5 ~5. Thus, although as- many different methods of chart construction and offer
trologers believe they can describe all people's characters, the many mutually inconsistent conclusions about a given per-
house systems most preferred cannot be used to construct son's character. The different schools disagree violently on
natal charts for all people. most of the fundamental issues involved in chart interpreta-
Astrologers do agree that the known planets, together with tion, each believing itself to be the school closest to the ulti-
the Sun and Moon, should be included in a chart and they mate astrological truth. Since at most one school could be
generally agree on what significance these should have. But correct, the majority of astrologers must be fooling them-
many astrologers include some things which other as- selves and their clients.
trologers disdain. The location of the center of the galaxy,
the position of asteroids and comets, and the places where
the planets cross the ecliptic plane are all used by different
The case for empirical investigation
astrologers. Many even use 'esoteric (i.e. fictional) planets'. Many modern authors dress astrology up as a worthy scien-
Though these 'planets' do not correspond to any physical tific discipline. Some claim the basic astrological thesis has
body, they are imbued with orbits. Nearly one hundred such been confirmed in the laboratory by numerous scientists who
objects have been used, ranging from unseen satellites of the were initially critical of astrology. However, astrologers only
Earth, to planets with trans-Plutonian orbits. Esoteric cite that literature they interpret as supportive, and ignore
planets work so well, some Hindu astrologers report, that the vast literature that contradicts them. Other astrologers
accurate readings can be obtained even when three of the believe they have 'scientifically' demonstrated astrology's ve-
known planets are ignored 36. racity because they have directly observed astrological influ-
Horoscopes also include a table showing the angular rela- ences acting in their clients' lives. Unfortunately, these as-
tionships (or 'aspects') between the planets as shown in fig- trologers have only observed that, under very poorly
ure i b. If two planets are separated by 0, 60, 90, 120, or 180 ~ controlled conditions, they can convince themselves that
(the 'major aspects') or by 30, 45, 135, 150 ~ ( the 'minor they are able to give their clients accurate astrologically
aspects') their effects are altered in a variety of complicated derived information. What astrologers don't seem to realize
ways. Not all astrologers use the same aspects. Since two is, if the game is played in their way, they can't possibly lose!
planets are rarely exactly any particular angle apart, as- There are numerous ways of satisfying clients. A common
trologers include the aspect if the planets are close to a given sense knowledge of psychology, knowing what people gener-
separation, there being no agreement about what 'close' ally like to believe about themselves, and being sensitive to
means. Most astrologers select an 'orb' of between + 2 to body language are all that is necessary for a very impressive
+ 5 ~ and include all aspects that fall within it. Obviously, 'cold reading' of a client. In the many astrological readings
the larger the orb, the more aspects there will be. Thus, the that I have observed the astrologers back-peddled when they
selection of the orb will affect what information an as- erred, then reinterpreted the chart until they ultimately said
trologer derives from a chart. something with which the client agreed. On summing up the
Worst of all, there is no agreement as to how the whole chart reading, they only emphasized the points of agreement.
should be interpreted. There is no agreement even on a basic These tactics, and the fact that most people willing to spend
philosophy of interpretation. Some astrologers believe that their money on such counseling believe in astrology already,
every factor in a chart has its own meaning and makes its make it easy to see why astrologers are so successful. That
own contribution which can be included by rigorously fol- people recognize general personality descriptions as accurate
294 Experientia 44 (1988), Birkh~iuser Verlag, CH-4010Basel/Switzerland Renews

for themselves, and can be satisfied even when astrologers refutes many of the astrologers' most cherished correspon-
use a wrong chart to describe their personality, is well estab- dences. For example, the Gauquelins have shown that a
lished 6, s, 14, 19. 'common indication of success', Jupiter being near the
Astrological texts are replete with natal charts of famous highest point in the sky at birth, does not occur more fre-
people. Astrologers analyze these, knowing full well the quently in successful people than in unsuccessful people 7. A
character of the individual, and are able to justify their pre- similar study involving the natal charts of 623 murderers
conceptions about their own astrological systems. But do found the distribution of Mars in the astrological houses
they recognize an inaccurate chart when they see one? When consistent with chance, even though astrology predicts Mars
Geoffrey Dean showed a large group of astrologers what would be either in the eighth house ('death for oneself or
they believed to be British singer Petula Clark's natal chart, others') or the twelfth house ('trials and goals') more often
they derived descriptions that exactly matched her personal- than the others ~I.
ity. Unfortunately, the chart was in fact that of mass murder- However, the Gauquelins do claim to have found several
er Charles Manson 13. Niehenke 34 found three publications weak but statistically significant correlations showing that
analyzing John Lennon's natal chart, each postdicting the some planets appear in certain sectors of the sky at the time
exact time of Lennon's violent death. However, each was of birth more frequently for the 'eminent' professionals of
derived from a different birth time. There are numerous sim- some fields than for non-eminent professionals 22. The most
ilar examples 15. It seems that astrologers can interpret any famous of these correlations is the so-called 'Mars effect', a
given natal chart to mean exactly what they want it to. claimed 5 % non-randomness in the position of Mars at the
Many astrologers doubt the value of scientifically investigat- time of birth for sports champions.
ing their craft. They claim that the language of astrology is The results were replicated by the Belgium Comit6 Para us-
symbolic or that astrology is somehow enmeshed with the ing an independent sample of 535 Belgian sports champi-
human soul and as such defies experimental quantification. ons 4. While they fell short of endorsing the Gauquelins'
These astrologers attempt to place their craft on a pedestal conclusions, the Comit6 Para agreed that the sector distribu-
so high as to make it unassailable by empirical inquiry. Their tion for Mars was non-random for their athletes. However,
belief in astrology is unbreachable. Any empirical evidence a second independent test using 408 U.S. sports champions
discounting their claims is immediately dismissed as irrele- found no significant Mars effect 3z.
vant. The Gauquelins have also reported that children tend to be
However, such a position is inconsistent with astrologers' born with the same planetary configurations as were their
justifications for believing in their abilities in the first place; parents 27'z8. This 'planetary heredity', originally reported
that they have observed that the information they give to as extremely significant (p < 0.00001), has recently been
their clients is accurate. Astrologers admit that it is possible challenged by Michel Gauquelin himself. Gauquelin discov-
for clients to recognize general personality descriptions as ered a bias in his interpolations of planetary positions from
accurate for themselves, and that 'cold reading' is possible. published tables that made the effect appear much stronger
Their confidence in their abilities comes from their belief that than it was 25 and reports that a recent replication, involving
they have observed that astrology yields much more accurate 50,000 subjects, has failed to produce any significant ef-
and detailed information about their clients than could be fect z4. Thus, it now appears that the planetary heredity ef-
obtained through normal counseling techniques. They do fect was spurious.
not, however, concede that the lack of controls on their This recent failure is very serious, for the Gauquelins also
observations, nor their desire for self-justification could reported that planetary heredity passed rigid self-consistency
affect their conclusions. Nevertheless, they justify their ser- checks. First, it appeared in several independent data sets.
vices based on the same kind of observation that they repu- Second, it vanished when births were induced by Caesarean
diate when applied by skeptics. section. Third, the planetary distributions shifted by the cor-
It is possible that science would be unable to discover the rect amounts when births were sped along by the use of
mechanisms responsible for astrology, but the basic issue is forceps to pull the baby through the birth canal is. (A doctor
scientifically resolved. Either the astrologers can get accurate may induce a Caesarean birth at a time of his or her choos-
information from their clients' natal charts or they can't. In ing, but the use of forceps requires the natural birth process
fact, considering the degree of detail they claim to reveal in to proceed to near completion.) The Gauquelins also
order to justify their right to counsel, and to charge their claimed to have observed a correlation between the strength
often substantial fees, verification ought to be a simple mat- of the planetary heredity effect and the degree of activity of
ter. the Earth's magnetic field z6.
To date, researchers have taken three approaches to investi- If the planetary heredity effect was spurious, then the fact
gating astrological influences. Some have searched for irreg- that it showed up in independent tests, always in just the
ularities in chemical reactions and biological processes that ways that one would expect if planetary heredity were real,
could only be attributed to astrological effects. Although would demonstrate a clear bias in the Gauquelins' experi-
interesting, the results (controversial at best) do not relate to mental procedures. This would not bode well for the
astrologers' claims, and will not be described here. Other Gauquelins' other reported discoveries.
researchers have statistically tested astrologers' accepted Astrologers frequently quote the Gauquelins' research and
correspondences between planetary configurations and peo- claim that a weak correlation in some outstanding athletes
ples lives. These studies do not involve astrologers personal- somehow implies that they can perform their advertised ser-
ly. Lastly, some researchers have directly tested astrologers' vices. Michel Gauquelin disagrees. "The horoscope is a
ability to obtain accurate information from horoscopes. product that is bought and sold, and that leads people to
These are the most straightforward tests of astrologers' dreams. But the dreams of the clientele are answered by the
claims. deceptions of the charlatan, as well as by the illusions of the
researcher who is sincere but not very lucid .... Serious sci-
entific examination is never favorable to this ancient doc-
The statistical approach trine .... T h e horoscope is certainly a commercial reality,
The most famous statistical research is that of French re- but it is a scientific illusion, or rather just an illusion." z3
searchers Michel and Francoise Gauquelin. For the past few Probably the most famous astrological claim is that the
decades they have collected an impressive battery of statistics phases of the Moon affect human behavior. Studies linking
that bear on astrological correlations. Their research clearly the phases of the Moon to crime rates homicide rates, suicide
Reviews Experientia 44 (1988), Birkh/iuserVerlag, CH-4010 Basel/Switzerland 295

rates, automobile accident rates and so forth, have been pub- experiment using samples containing in excess of two million
lished. Several extensive reviews of this evidence have now people, as in the Smithers study, cmmot find the predicted
been done and show that there is no strong evidence to correlations there seems to be little hope for the astrological
support these claims 3a, 37. gestalt.
Numerous studies searching for correlations between Sun However, the astrologers' objections may be avoided by test-
sign and human behavior have been published. All of them ing the astrologers' abilities directly. Several such studies
either show no effect or are flawed in design 16. Four such have now been done.
tests are frequently quoted and are summarized below.
In 1978, a respected psychological journal published a study Double-blind experiments
co-authored by an eminent British psychologist, Hans
Eysenck, and British astrologer Jeff Mayo, that claimed to Between 1959 and 1961, fifty astrologers took part in three
observe a weak correlation between personality traits as experiments conducted by Vernon Clark, an American
measured by the Eysenck Personality Inventory and Sun psychologist 3. The first two were performed 'single blind',
signs 33. While one subsequent study confirmed the effect 29, i.e. although the astrologers did not know the answers to the
a second replication failed 4~ However, the fact these au- experimental questions, Clark did. Since experience has
thors failed to take into account was that the subjects could shown that there are subtle ways for subjects to gain infor-
bias the results if they were aware of the personality charac- mation from the experimenter, single blind tests need never
teristics attributed to their Sun sign. When this 'self-attribu- be seriously considered.
tion' possibility was controlled for, the effect vanished 35. Clark's third test was 'double blind'; neither the astrologers
Eysenck later retracted his claim 2o. The experiment has been nor Clark knew the answers to any experimental questions.
repeated twice more, both times with results consistent with Thirty astrologers participated. Clark obtained the natal
pure chance 30, 38. charts of people possessing IQ's above 140, and people suf-
The prestigious British newspaper, The Guardian, published fering from cerebral palsy, an incurable form of brain dam-
the results of a massive search for correlations between Sun age. Clark's purpose was to get two groups that respresented
signs and occupations conducted by Alan Smithers, head of extremes in learning ability. Clark matched the charts into
the Department of Education at Manchester University. ten pairs. Each astrologer reviewed the same set of pairs and
Smithers' study used the records of the 1971 British Census tried to tell the palsy victim from the person of high IQ. If
to obtain a sample of over 1,469,000 men and 842,000 wom- astrology did not work, one would naively expect the as-
en each assigned to one of 223 occupations. A total of 16 trologers to guess correctly on five of the ten charts on aver-
recognized expert astrologers made predictions of correla- age. In fact, the astrologers as a group averaged almost six
tions that would be found between Sun signs and occupa- out of ten correct.
tions. Smithers stated he 'remained unconvinced' but sug- Unfortunately, Clark's experiment was poorly designed.
gested that some of the astrologer's predictions were Suppose the first astrologer's rules about how to find the
confirmed. However, a later critique of the study clearly palsy victim's chart happen to get him/her six out of ten
showed the results were attributable to statistical fluctua- correct. If all the astrologers tend to agree on what a palsy
tions, and people making decisions based on knowing the victim's chart looks like they will all tend to select the same
characteristics associated with their Sun signs 12. Thus, even charts; they will all average 60% correct. By having thirty
with nearly two and a half million people in the sample, astrologers look at the same pairs, any statistical fluctuation
correlations that astrologers claim to observe on a daily basis in the data is artificially magnified thirty times.
could not be found. If the average had been weighted so chance expectation was
Astrologers' claims about the compatibility of couples have 60%, one can show that about one in 28 astrologers should
been tested several times. Professor Bernard Silverman, a have gotten a perfect score, as one of Clark's thirty as-
Michigan State psychologist, compared the Sun signs of trologers did. Thus, Clark's results are consistent with
2978 married couples with 478 couples who were divorced chance expectations of a poorly designed experiment.
and discovered that those born under 'incompatible' signs In 1985, I published the results of a carefully controlled
were no more likely to be divorced than those born under experiment 2. Its purpose was to give outstanding astrologers
'compatible' signs, and those born under 'compatible' signs the best possible chance to apply their craft in a controlled
were no more likely to stay married 39. Other studies give setting to see if they could get accurate information about
similar results 17 people they had never met.
James Barth and James Bennett of George Washington Uni- Three recognized expert astrologers consented to act as advi-
versity looked at the horoscopes of men who re-enlisted in sors on the experiment's design. They also selected those of
the U.S. Marine Corps. They assumed that those who re-en- their peers they considered sufficiently competent to partici-
listed in the Marines were more likely to have a 'war-like' pate, made 'worst case' predictions for how well their col-
personality than people who either never entered the service leagues would do, and approved the design as a 'fair test' of
or were drafted. Mars is associated with aggressive and war- astrology. Twenty-eight of the ninety astrologers who had
like behavior, while Venus is associated with gentleness and been recommended by the advisors agreed to participate.
passivity. Since the signs of Aries and Scorpio are supposedly Volunteer test subjects took a widely used and generally ac-
'ruled' by Mars, traditional astrology holds that people born cepted personality test, the California Personality Inventory
under these signs tend to be aggressive and war-like, while (CPI), to provide an objective measure of their character
those born under Libra tend to be mild and compassionate. traits. The astrologers chose the CPI as the personality test
Barth and Bennett found that their Marines were no more which came closest to describing those character attributes
likely to be Aries or Scorpios than Libras 1. accessible to astrology. A computer constructed a natal chart
Astrologers rebut such studies by pointing out that they for each subject.
focus on only one element of the natal chart. Astrologers rely The experiment consisted of two parts. In the first, the natal
on much more information to make an assessment of one's charts were divided up amongst the astrologers. For each
aggression or whether one is well-suited to one's partner. natal chart, the astrologers wrote personality descriptions
Astrologers usually claim that chart interpretation is a ge- covering material that they felt sure the subjects would be
stalt process, and that only an experienced professional can able to recognize as accurate. The subjects received their
do it. Even if this were so, given enough statistics, individual own astrologically-derived personality description and two
factors have to crop up above chance at some level. When an others chosen at random, and were asked to select the de-
296 Experientia44 (1988), Birkh/iuserVerlag, CH-4010 Basel/Switzerland Renews

scription that they felt best fit them. Extensive controls were abandon astrology (but not the pretense of astrology) in
established to eliminate self-attribution and other possible favor of cold reading" 11. Dean also found that the as-
biases. If astrology does not work, one would expect only trologers did not even agree on how to interpret the charts to
one third of the subjects to select the correct personality find these extreme factors.
descriptions. The astrologers' own 'worst case' prediction
was that the subjects would score at least 50 % correct.
Conclusions
In the second test, the natal charts were again divided up
amongst the astrologers. For each natal chart, the as- In summary, astrology is an ancient form of divination that
trologers were given three CPI test results, one of which has changed little since its founding on superstition and igno-
correctly corresponded to the given natal chart. They were rance nearly four thousand years ago. Astrologers' many
asked to make a first and second place choice as to which anecdotal success stories are unconvincing because anecdo-
CPI came closest to matching each natal chart, and rate how tal evidence is easily altered by poor observation, faulty
well each fit the natal chart on a one to ten scale. If the natal memory, ignoring failures, and deliberate distortion. Careful
chart contains n o information about the subject, the as- investigation into astrology's tenets gives no comfort to its
trologers had a one in three chance of making a given selec- practitioners and followers. In every test, the astrologers'
tion correctly. Their worst case prediction here, too, was a claims have been refuted. Even when astrologers themselves
score of at least 50 % correct. define their abilities, select which of their peers are com-
The subjects failed to select the correct personality descrip- petent to participate in the test, predict how well they will do
tions more than one third of the time. However, if people and sanction the test as 'fair', they fail to perform better than
tend not to know themselves very well they would be unable if astrology did not work at all.
to select the correct descriptions no matter how well astrolo- If an astrologer is a skilled counselor and a caring person,
gy worked. Since the CPI descriptions are known to be accu- he/she may be of benefit to his/her clientele. However, most
rate, each subject was also asked to select his or her own CPI astrologers have no training in counseling. Many studied
from a group of three. Since the subjects were also unable do astrology because its unconventionality appealed to their
this, their failure to select the correct astrological description own unconventional natures. A few are outright charlatans
could not be held against astrology. who use astrology as a scam to bilk the gullible. A person
However, astrologers' confidence in their abilities comes with a real problem, is, in my opinion, courting disaster in
from their clients' ability to recognize astrologically-derived seeking astrological counseling. One would be much safer in
personality descriptions as accurate. The subjects' failure the hands of a trained, licensed, respected and reputable
here means either astrology does not work, or people do not counselor.
know themselves well enough to recognize the astrologers' Society requires safeguards to protect the public against
descriptions as accurate When reviewed in a controlled set- charlatanism, fraud, and quackery. Our standards rightly
ting in which two alternative descriptions are also presented. require one to demonstrate, before impartial observers, that
Either way, these results show that astrologers' faith in their one can perform the service for which one charges. Consider-
abilities is unfounded. ing the effect they have on peoples' lives, it is clear that
The astrologers failed to match the correct CPI's to the natal astrologers should be held to the same standards as auto
charts. They scored exactly chance and were very far (3.3 mechanics, plumbers, hair dressers, and other accredited
standard deviations) from their 'worst case' prediction of professionals. This means two things. First, astrologers
50 % correct. Even worse, the astrologers did no better when should be certified as counselors before they be permitted to
they rated a CPI as being a perfect fit to a natal chart. None perform their counseling service. Second, they should stop
of the astrologers scored well enough to warrant being retest- advertising abilities they can not demonstrate. Astrologers
ed, Thus, even though the astrologers started off very confi- may reasonably claim that they have a language for the
dent that they would pass this test, they failed. psyche that some people find insightful, but they must stop
Geoffrey Dean has conducted a similar series of experi- claiming that they can get accurate information about a per-
ments. After testing over one thousand people, he used the son from a natal chart unless they can prove it in a double-
natal charts of those who scored as being either extremely blind examination.
emotional/stable, or extremely extroverted/introverted by Certainly, astrologers should support testing by an impartial
the Eysenck Personality Inventory (EPI), where 'extreme' accrediting body to weed out all practitioners who cannot
means the two most extreme scores out of fifteen. " I f astrol- perform successfully. In addition to resolving the age-old
ogy cannot correctly judge the two most extreme persons in schisms between various astrological schools, this would go
every 15," Dean reasons, "there is clearly no hope for the a long way towards protecting the Public against fraud and
other 13" 9. These character traits, most astrologers feel, are incompetence. Until this is done, astrology must be per-
strongly indicated in a chart. ceived as a threat to the public health and, as such, struggled
Dean's first experiment tested whether computer analysis of against.
various astrological factors could be used, either individually
or in combination, to discern extroversion and emotionality
in his extreme subjects 9. No factors scored above chance. To
counter the objection that only experienced astrologers, and 1 Bennett, J., and Barth, J., Astronomics: A new approach to econom-
ics? J. Polit. Econ. 81 (1973) 1473-1475.
not computers, can interpret a chart, Dean conducted a sec- 2 Carlson, S., A double blind test of astrology. Nature 318 (1985)
ond test that allowed 45 astrologers to try to discern the 419-425.
extreme personality traits by scrutinizing the natal charts 10. 3 Clark, V., Experimental astrology. Aquarian Agent 1 (1961) 22-23.
He discovered that the astrologers could make the selections 4 Comit6 Para, Nouvelles Breves43 (1976) 327-343.
when they could get clues from his body language. However, 5 Culver, R., and Ianna, P., The Gemini Syndrome: A ScientificEval-
when these clues were eliminated, the astrologers scored no uation of Astrology, pp. 59 61. Prometheus Books, Buffalo, N.Y.
better than chance. Says Dean, "In light of the negligible 1984.
effect of intuition in the main test, this suggests that the 6 Culver and Ianna 5, capt. 7.
7 Culver and Ianna s, pp. 143-147.
supposed efficacy of intuition in everyday practice owes a 8 Dean, G. A., The acceptanceof astrological chart interpretations: A
great deal to cold reading, and not much to anything else, simple test of personality validation using reversedcharts, Paper pre-
The astrologer concerned with maximizing accuracy, and sented at the 2nd Astrol. Res. Conf. Inst. of Psychiatry, London.
therefore client satisfaction, could therefore do worse than to November 1981.
Redews Experientia 44 (1988), Birkh/iuser Verlag, CH-4010 Basel/Switzerland 297

9 Dean, G. A., Can astrology predict e(xtraversion) and n(eutroticism)? 27 Gauquelin, M., and Gauquelin, F., Series B (Hereditary Experiment),
Part 1. individual factors. Correlation 5 (1986) 4. vols. 1 -6. Laboratoire d'etude des relations entre rythmes cosmiques
10 Dean, G. A. Can astrology predict e(xtraversion) and n(euroticism)? et psychophysioloNques, Paris 1970.
Part 2. The whole Chart. Correlation 5 (1986) 2. 28 Gauquelin, M., and Gauquelin, F., Series C, vol. 1, part 2. Labora-
11 Dean, G. A., Prepublication copy. toire d'etude des relations entre rythmes cosmiques et psychophysi-
12 Dean, G.A., Kelly, I.W., Rotton, J., and Saklofske, D.H., The ologiques, Paris 1972.
guardian astrology study: A critique and reanalysis. The Skeptical 29 Jackson, M., Extraversion, neuroticism, and date of birth: A South-
Inquirer 9 (1985) 327-338. ern Hemisphere A Study. J. Psychol. 101 (1979) 197-198.
13 Dean, G. A., Planets and personality extremes. Correlation, vot. 1, 30 Jackson, M., and Fiebert, M., Introversion-extroversion and Astrolo-
pp. 15-18. gy. J. Psychol. 105 (1980) 155-156.
14 Dean, G.A., Recent advances in natal astrology. Analogic (1977) 31 Kelly, I.W., Rotton, J., and Culver, R., The Moon was fuU and
28 31. nothing happened: a review of studies on the Moon and human
15 Dean 14, p. 29. behavior and lunar beliefs. The Skeptical Inquirer 10 (Winter 1985-
16 Dean 14, pp. 84-131. 86).
17 Dean 14, pp. 131-134. 32 Kurtz, P., Zelen, M., and Abell, G., Four-part report on the claimed
18 Dean, M., The Astrology Game, pp. 247-251. Beauford Books, New 'Mars effect'. The Skeptical Inquirer 4 (Winter 1979-80) 19-63.
York 1980. 33 Mayo J., White, O., and Eysenck, H., An empirical study of the
19 Dickson, D. H., and Kelly, I. W., The Barnum Effect in personality relation between astrological factors and personality. J. soe. Psychol.
assessment. Psychol. Rep. 57 (1985) 367 382. I05 (1978) 229-236.
20 Eysenck, H., Astrology: science or superstition? Encounter (1979) 34 Niehenke, P., The whole is more than the sum of its parts. Astro-Psy-
85. chol. Prob. voI. 1, pp. 33-37.
21 Gauquelin, M., The Cosmic Clocks, p. 84. Henery Regnery Compa- 35 Pawlik, K., and Buse, L., Self-attribution as a differential psycholog-
ny, Chicago 1967. ical moderating variable. Z. Sozialpsychol. 10 (1979) 54-55.
22 Gauquelin, M., Cosmic Influences on Human Behavior. Garnstone 36 Raman, B., Hindu Predictive Astrology, p. 12. The India Book
Press, London 1974. House, 1972.
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metheus Books, Buffalo, N.Y. 1979. meta-analysis of lunar-lunacy research. Psychol. Bull. 97 (1985) 286-
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miques et psychophysiologiques, Paris 1977. 9 Birkh/iuser Verlag Basel, 1988

Misuses of biology in the context of the paranormal

G. C. Hewitt
Zoology Department, Victoria University of Wellington, Private Bag, Wellington (New Zealand) *

Summary. Public suspicion o f science stems f r o m science's challenging o f perceptions a n d m y t h s a b o u t reality, a n d a public
fear o f new technology. T h e result is a susceptibility to pseudoscience. In claiming t h a t creation 'science' is as valid as
evolution the creationists m i s q u o t e scientists a n d seek to spread their o w n 'scientific' m y t h s c o n c e r n i n g a y o u n g age for the
earth, a n act o f c r e a t i o n b a s e d o n a particular literalist i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of the C h r i s t i a n Bible a n d a single worldwide flood.
They use m e t h o d s o f d e b a t e a n d politics, r a t h e r t h a n scientific research. A selection o f their a r g u m e n t s is e x a m i n e d a n d the
n a t u r e o f the evidence for evolution is discussed. P r o b l e m s with the creation 'science' m o d e l are noted. In the m y t h o f the
h u n d r e d t h m o n k e y p h e n o m e n o n , original research is m i s q u o t e d to denigrate scientific research a n d s u p p o r t sentimental
ideas o f p a r a n o r m a l events. T h e misuse o f science is seen as d a m a g i n g to society because it reduces the effective g a t h e r i n g
a n d a p p l i c a t i o n o f scientific i n f o r m a t i o n . However, pseudoscience provides a valuable guide to gaps in public scientific
education.
Key words. Biology; c r e a t i o n science; c r e a t i o n i s m ; evolution; h u n d r e d t h m o n k e y p h e n o m e n o n ; p a r a n o r m a l ; pseudoscience.

Public attitudes to science

It is u n d e r s t a n d a b l e t h a t people cast a j a u n d i c e d eye over galaxy, just one o f h u n d r e d s o f millions in a U n i v e r s e at least
science. Partly this is because scientists h a v e p r o v i d e d the 3 x 1013 k m across z' 47. T r u t h does n o t seem, to m a n y , to be
knowledge t h a t u n l e a s h e d the nuclear b o m b which puts us a n a d e q u a t e r e a s o n for this destruction o f o u r fantasy of
all in such severe danger. However, m a n y people w o u l d ac- being people at the centre o f the Universe.
cept t h a t the decision to p r o d u c e so m a n y b o m b s was t a k e n It is n o t surprising t h a t there has b e e n a backlash. This has
by politicians n o t scientists, a n d t h a t giving us a n average life m a d e people susceptible to t h e use o f biological a n d o t h e r
expectancy o f a b o u t 70 years, r a t h e r t h a n 3 0 - 4 0 , helps bal- scientific research to s u p p o r t the misuse o f science for polit-
ance t h a t account. Less easy to forgive is the way science h a s ical o r religious reasons a n d to s e n t i m e n t a l a t t e m p t s to estab-
destroyed people's fantasy a b o u t their place in the Universe. lish p a r a n o r m a l effects. U s e o f w h a t seems to be science to
F o r example the a s t r o n o m e r s have t a k e n us f r o m being at s u p p o r t closed systems, b a s e d o n belief, a n d with a n ultimate
the very centre, to a place in the spiral a r m of a n insignificant appeal to a doctrine, c a n be called pseudoscience 43. I w a n t