Answer Key FYbcom Sem 1
Answer Key FYbcom Sem 1
SLRTDC/2022-23/SEM-(I/II/III/IV)/SEP-2022/Department/Subject Code-UBCOMFSI.7
The points on L1 are (0, 2), (2, 0) and L2 are (0, 4), (6, 0) and L3 are (0, 6), (4, 0) Since x + y ≥ 2 we have to consider region
above L1 Since 2x + 3y <= 12 we have to consider region below L2 and L3 3x + 2y ≤ 12 Since x ≥ 0 y ≥ 0 we have to consider
the region XOY. The common region is shown by the shaded portion of ACPEB, which is the feasible region. It is a convex
set.
(e) module-2
To Minimize Z=10x + 5y
Subjected to 2x – y ≥ 1, x + y ≥ 5, x ≥ 0, y ≥ 0
Consider, 2x – y =1 ………. (1)
X 0 1/2
Y -1 0
A B
Consider, x + y =5 ……….. (2)
X 0 5
Y 5 0
C D
Draw lines (i) and (ii) on the graph paper, with the help of points A, B and C, D.
To find P, the point of intersection of lines (i) and (ii).
Solving (i) and (ii) simultaneously
2x - y = 1
x + y = 5 by adding both eqn. , we get, 3x = 6 so, x = 2 and y = 3 therefore P = (2, 3)
The feasible region is the shaded portion in the graph and the points to consider are P, D.
At P (2, 3) Z = 10x + 5y = 10(2) + 5(3) = 35
At D (5, 0) Z = 10x + 5y = 10(5) + 5(0) = 50
As 35 is less than 50, the function Z is minimized at P (2, 3) and minimum value of Z is 35. x = 2 and y = 3 give minimum
value of Z = 35.
SECTION-II
Age f X fx fx2
10-20 8 15 120 1800
20-30 12 25 300 7500
30-40 20 35 700 24500
40-50 14 45 630 28350
50-60 10 55 550 30250
Total 64 - 2300 92400
A.M. =2300/64 = 35.9375 years
S.D. = √[92400/64 - (35.9375)2]
= √1443.75 -1291.5039
= √152.2461 = 12.34 years
Coefficient of variation = 12.34 x 100/35.9375 = 34.3374
(d) module-3
since N=120
For Q1, N/4 =120/4 =30
For Q2 , N/2=120/2 = 60
For Q3, 3N/4 = 3 x 120 /4 = 90.
Q.4
(a) module-4
i)Sample Space of an Experiment:
A set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is called sample space of the experiment. It is denoted by S. e.g. sample
space of the experiment of tossing an unbiased coin is S= (H, T), where H denotes "head" and T denotes "tail". Similarly,
sample space of the experiment of throwing a fair dice is S= (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).
ii) Mutually Exclusive Events:
If occurence of one event restricts the occurence of the other, the two events are said to be mutually exclusive events.
Therefore, if two events A and B cannot occur together they are mutually exclusive events. In such a case, A ∩ B = Ф(empty
set)
In the above example, A and B are mutually exclusive events, but A and C are not mutually exclusive events.
(b) module-4
X 0 1 2 3 4 5 Total
P k 0.3 0.15 0.15 0.1 2k 0.7+ 3k
p.x 0 0.3 0.3 0.45 0.4 10k 1.45+10k
Now, Σp = 1
so 0.7 + 3k = 1
Therefore k=0.1
E(x) = Σp.x = 1.45 + 10k = 1.45 + 10 * 0.1 = 2.45.
(c) module-4
The following are the sample points when 2 dice are thrown.
S= {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6)
(2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6)
(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6)
(4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6)
(5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6)
(6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6,6)}
n(S)= 36.
i) Probability (no. on first die is < no on second dice)
=(5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1)/36 = 15/36 = 0.4167
ii) Probability (sum of numbers is 8)= 5/36 = 0.1389.
(d) module-4
(i) Probability (all 4 cards are black)
= (26 C4)/52 C4
= ((26 * 25 * 24 * 23)/(4 * 3 * 2 * 1))/((52 * 51 * 50 * 49)/(4 * 3 * 2 * 1)) = 0.0552
(ii) Probability (only one is king) = (4C1 x 48
C3.) /4 C4
= ((4 * 48 * 47 * 46)/(3 * 2 * 1))/((52 * 51 * 50 * 49)/(4 * 3 * 2 * 1)) = 0.2556.
(e) module-4
P(B)=1-P( B bar )= 1 - 4/5 = 1/5
P(A ∩ B)= P(A) * P(B) = 1/4 * 1/5 = 1/20
By addition theorem,
P(A ∩ B)= P(A) + P(B) -P(A ∩ B) = 1/4 + 1/5 - 1/20 = 8/20 = 2/5
Q.5
(a) module-5
S1 S2 S3
A1 65 45 30
A2 75 25 105
A3 90 70 75
(i)Laplace Criterion
For A1 , Average pay-off (65+ 45+30)/3 = 46.67
For A2 , Average pay-off (75+25+105)/3 = 68.33
For A3 , Average pay-off f = (90 + 70 + 75) / 3 = 78.33
Now maximum average pay-off = 78.33 so choose A3.
(ii) Maximax Criterion
For A1 , max (65, 45, 30) = 65
For A2 , max (75, 25, 105)= 105
For A3 , max (90, 70, 75) = 90
As maximum is 105, choose A₂
(iii) Maximin Criterion
For A1 , min (65, 45, 30) = 30
For A2, min (75, 25, 105) = 25
For A3 min (90, 70, 75) = 70
As maximum is 70, choose A3
(b)
S₁, S, S, are the states of market demand, being poor, average and good respectively, with probabilities 0.3, 0.55 and 0.15.
For product P, EMV 0.3 x 100+ 0.55 x 350 +0.15 × 100 = 237.5 For product Q, EMV = 0.3 * 150 + 0.55 * 250 + 0.15 * 150
=205.0 As, EMV is more for product P, best decision is to choose product P.
(c) module-5
Decision Tree:
A decision tree is a graphical presentation of a decision process involving multiple stages. It indicates all the courses of
actions, states of nature with associated probabilities and the conditional pay-offs of a decision problem. A decision node is
represented by a square and state of nature node is represented by a circle. Usually, the decision nodes are numbered using
capital letters A, B, C,... from left to right and the states of nature nodes as 1, 2, 3,... sequentially from left to right. The
different courses of action originate as branches from the decision node. At the end of each of these branches, there are states
of nature nodes. The states of nature emerge as sub-branches from these nodes. The probabilities associated with the states of
nature and the pay-offs are shown on these branches. This way of representing a decision problem is called a decision tree.
(d) i) Acts:
These include different ways or acts available to the decision maker. As described earlier, it may contain acts like produce
3000 units, 2000 units, etc. It may involve various strategies or options available for the company like outsourcing,
subcontracting, working in multiple shifts, etc. These alternative courses of action are usually denoted by A 1, A2 ,....,An.
ii) States of Nature:
These represent all future events that can occur, which are natural possibilities or market situations on which the Decision
Maker has no control. For instance, the sales of products may depend on seasons like summer, winter, rainy season, etc. or
the demand of product can be very high, high, moderate, low, etc. These situations, beyond the control of the Decision Maker
are known as States of Nature or Outcomes and are denoted by S1, S2 ,....,Sn ,et The states of nature may be described by
corresponding probability distribution. For example, the probabilities associated with demand being high, moderate and low
can be 0.3, 0.5 and 0.2 respectively. Note that, as it is exhaustive and mutually exclusive list of states of nature i.e. all
possibilities of demand are considered, the total of probabilities is 0(i. e. 0.3 + 0.5 + 0.2 = 1.0 )
(e)
The EMV for action A1 = 6.8 + 6 + 9 = 21.8
The EMV for action A2 = 2.8 + 4.8 + 6 = 13.6
So choose action A1 with maximum EMV of 21.8.