Statistics and SENIOR

HIGH
Probability SCHOOL

Problem Solving Involving Module

Regression Analysis 18
Quarter 2
Statistics and Probability
Quarter 2 – Module 18: Problem Solving Involving Regression Analysis
First Edition, 2020

Republic Act 8293, section 176 states that: No copyright shall subsist in any work
of the Government of the Philippines. However, prior approval of the government agency or
office wherein the work is created shall be necessary for exploitation of such work for profit.
Such agency or office may, among other things, impose as a condition the payment of
royalties.

Borrowed materials (i.e., songs, stories, poems, pictures, photos, brand names,
trademarks, etc.) included in this module are owned by their respective copyright holders.
Every effort has been exerted to locate and seek permission to use these materials from
their respective copyright owners. The publisher and authors do not represent nor claim
ownership over them.

Published by the Department of Education Division of Pasig City

Development Team of the Module

Writer: Hazel A. Cuaresma
Editors: Nenet M. Peñaranda
Reviewers: Christopher Cruz
Layout Artist: Clifchard D. Valente
Management Team: Ma. Evalou Concepcion A. Agustin
OIC-Schools Division Superintendent
Carolina T. Rivera, Ed. D.
OIC-Assistant Schools Division Superintendent
Victor M. Javeña, Ed. D.
Chief - School Governance and Operations Division
OIC – Chief Curriculum Implementation Division
Education Program Supervisors
Librada L. Agon, Ed. D., EPP/TLE
Liza A. Alvarez, Science
Bernard R. Balitao, Araling Panlipunan
Joselito E. Calios, English
Norlyn D. Conde, Ed. D., MAPEH
Wilma Q. Del Rosario, LRMS
Ma. Teresita E. Herrera, Ed. D., Filipino
Perlita M. Ignacio, Ph. D., ESP/SPED
Dulce O. Santos, Ed. D., Kinder/MTB
Teresita P. Tagulao, Ed. D., Mathematics

Printed in the Philippines by Department of Education Division of Pasig City

Statistics and SENIOR
HIGH

Probability SCHOOL

Module

18
Quarter 2

Problem Solving Involving

Regression Analysis
Introductory Message

For the facilitator:

Welcome to the Statistics and Probability for Senior High School Module on
Problem Solving Involving Regression Analysis!

This module was collaboratively designed, developed and reviewed by educators

from Schools Division Office of Pasig City headed by its Officer-In-Charge Schools
Division Superintendent, Ma. Evalou Concepcion A. Agustin in partnership with
the Local Government of Pasig through its mayor, Honorable Victor Ma. Regis N.
Sotto.
The writers utilized the standards set by the K to 12 Curriculum using the Most
Essential Learning Competencies (MELC) while overcoming their personal, social,
and economic constraints in schooling.

This learning material hopes to engage the learners into guided and independent
learning activities at their own pace and time. Further, this also aims to help
learners acquire the needed 21st century skills especially the 5 Cs namely:
Communication, Collaboration, Creativity, Critical Thinking and Character while
taking into consideration their needs and circumstances.

In addition to the material in the main text, you will also see this box in the body of
the module:

Notes to the Teacher

This contains helpful tips or strategies
that will help you in guiding the learners.

As a facilitator you are expected to orient the learners on how to use this module.
You also need to keep track of the learners' progress while allowing them to
manage their own learning. Moreover, you are expected to encourage and assist the
learners as they do the tasks included in the module.
For the learner:

Welcome to the Statistics and Probability Module on Problem Solving Involving

Regression Analysis!

The hand is one of the most symbolized part of the human body. It is often used to
depict skill, action and purpose. Through our hands we may learn, create and
accomplish. Hence, the hand in this learning resource signifies that you as a
learner is capable and empowered to successfully achieve the relevant
competencies and skills at your own pace and time. Your academic success lies in
your own hands!

This module was designed to provide you with fun and meaningful opportunities
for guided and independent learning at your own pace and time. You will be
enabled to process the contents of the learning material while being an active
learner.

This module has the following parts and corresponding icons:

Expectation - These are what you will be able to know after

completing the lessons in the module

Pre-test - This will measure your prior knowledge and the

concepts to be mastered throughout the lesson.

Recap - This section will measure what learnings and skills

that you understand from the previous lesson.

Lesson- This section will discuss the topic for this module.

Activities - This is a set of activities you will perform.

Wrap Up- This section summarizes the concepts and

applications of the lessons.

Valuing-this part will check the integration of values in the

learning competency.

Post-test - This will measure how much you have learned from
the entire module.
 EXPECTATION

At the end of this lesson, you are expected to:

• solve problems involving regression analysis.

PRETEST

The table below shows the income of a company (in million pesos) for the
past 8 years:

Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(X)
Income
in
million 2.2 2.4 2.9 2.5 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.9
pesos
(Y)

X 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Y 2.2 2.4 2.9 2.5 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.9

Year X Y 𝐗𝟐 XY
2012 1 2.2 1 2.2
2013 2 2.4 4 4.8
2014 3 2.9 9 8.7
2015 4 2.5 16 10
2016 5 3.1 25 15.5
2017 6 3.3 36 19.8
2018 7 3.6 49 25.2
2019 8 3.9 64 31.2
∑X=36 ∑Y=23.9 ∑X =204
2 ∑XY=117.4

Multiple Choice. Choose the letter of the best answer.

1. Find the value of a
a. 0.93 b. 1.93 c. 2.93 d. 3.93
2. The value of b is ____________.
a. 0.23 b. 0.24 c. 0.25 d. 0.26
 3. Find the regression line that will predict the income of a company for a
given year.
a. Y’=0.21X +1.92 c. Y’=0.23X + 1.93
b. Y’=0 .22X +1.8 d. Y’=0.25X + 2.41
4. What is the expected income of a company (in million pesos) on the
ninth year or 2020?
a. 1 b. 2 c. 3 d. 4
5. How much is the income (in million pesos) on the fifth year?
a. 2.9 b. 3.1 c. 3.6 d. 3.9

RECAP

In the previous lesson, we learned about the dependent and

independent variables. We identified the slope and y-intercept of the regression
line. We also predicted the value of the dependent variable given the value of the
independent variable. In the next lesson, we will solve problems involving
regression analysis.

LESSON
If two variables are correlated, we can predict the value of one
variable in terms of the other variable. The relationship or correlation must be
significant. This means that the actual relationship exists in the population, not
just in the sample. The regression analysis is then used to predict the value of
one variable in terms of the other variable. Thus, we do correlation analysis first
before performing regression analysis.

To solve for the correlation coefficient (r),

n ∑ 𝑿𝒀- ∑ 𝑿* ∑ 𝒀
r=
√⌊n ∑ 𝑿𝟐 - ( ∑ 𝑿)𝟐 ⌋ ⌊n ∑ 𝒀𝟐 - ( ∑ 𝒀)𝟐 ⌋

TESTING THE SIGNIFICANCE OF r

The formula for t
𝒏−𝟐
t= r√
𝟏−𝒓𝟐

where df= n-2 (see the t-table for two-tailed)

 The t-table (two-tailed)

Degrees of Confidence Coefficient

N Freedom (amount of a in two tails)
(n-1) 0.90 0.95 0.99
2 1 6.314 12.706 63.657
3 2 2.920 4.303 9.925
4 3 2.353 3.182 5.841
5 4 2.132 2.776 4.604
6 5 2.015 2.571 4.032
7 6 1.943 2.447 3.707
8 7 1.895 2.365 3.499
9 8 1.860 2.306 3.355
10 9 1.833 2.262 3.250
11 10 1.812 2.228 3.169
12 11 1.796 2.201 3.106
13 12 1.782 2.179 3.055
14 13 1.771 2.160 3.012
15 14 1.761 2.145 2.977
16 15 1.753 2.131 2.947
17 16 1.746 2.120 2.921
18 17 1.740 2.110 2.898
19 18 1.734 2.101 2.878
20 19 1.729 2.093 2.861
21 20 1.725 2.086 2.845
22 21 1.721 2.080 2.831
23 22 1.717 2.074 2.819
24 23 1.714 2.069 2.807
25 24 1.711 2.064 2.797
26 25 1.708 2.060 2.787
27 26 1.706 2.056 2.779
28 27 1.703 2.052 2.771
29 28 1.701 2.048 2.763
30 29 1.699 2.045 2.756
31 30 1.697 2.042 2.750
41 40 1.684 2.021 2.714
61 60 1.671 2.000 2.660
∞ ∞ 1.645 1.960 2.576

The regression line Y’ = bX + a is also called the line prediction

equation because we use it to predict Y if X is known. Since in the analysis,
only the Y distance was considered, the line cannot be used to predict X
from Y.
 To determine the regression line or do the regression analysis, we
go through the following steps:
1. Find the value of the correlation coefficient (r)
2. Test the significance of r. If r is significant, proceed to regression
analysis (Proceed to Step 3). If r is not significant , regression analysis
cannot be done (Stop)
STEPS IN TESTING THE SIGNIFICANCE OF r
a. State the null and alternative hypothesis
b. Compute for the value of t
c. Compare the computed value of t with the critical value
of t, as found in the table. Based on the null hypothesis, the test calls
for a two-tailed test. The degree of freedom is n-2
d. Make the decision
DECISION RULE
Make the decision
If the computed t ≥ critical value of t
then, reject Ho, accept the 𝐻𝐴
Interpretation: There is a significant relationship between the two
variables
If the computed t < critical value of t
then, accept Ho.
Interpretation: There is no significant relationship between the two
variables
3. Find the values of a and b.
4. Substitute the values of a and b in the regression line Y’ = bX + a.

Example 1
If the computed t= 7.35 and the critical t= 2.105 , what would be the
interpretation if the null hypothesis is rejected?
ANSWER
The null hypothesis is rejected, there is a significant relationship
between the two variables.
Example 2
IQ Scores and Age
A researcher would like to know if IQ scores are related to age. Using
10 high school students, he found out that the computed r is 0.58. At 0.05
level of significance, can he conclude that the relationship really exists in
the population?
Steps Solution
1. State the null and alternative Ho: There is no significant
hypotheses relationship between IQ scores and
 age (r=0)
HA : There is a significant
correlation between IQ scores and
age (r≠0)
2. Compute for the value of t Here n=10 and r=0.58
using the formula: 𝑛−2
t= r√ 2
𝑛−2 1−𝑟
t= r√ 2
1−𝑟 10−2
t= 0.58√
1−(0.58)2
t=2.01
3. Compare the computed value Using df=n-2=10-2=8, a=0.05, two-
of t with the critical value of t tailed test, we get from the table of
t-values that the critical value of t is
2.306
4. Make a decision Since the computed value of t=2.01
is less than the critical value of t
which is 2.306, we accept the null
hypothesis. So, we say that there is
no significant relationship between
IQ scores and age.
5. Summarize the results We conclude that the relationship
between IQ scores and age does not
really exist in the population. Thus
regression analysis should not be
performed since the test of
significance of r yields no significant
result.

Example 3
The following data pertains to the heights of fathers and their eldest
sons in inches. Is there a significant relationship between the two variables,
predict the height of the son if the height of his father is 78 inches.

Height of the father Height of the son

71 71
69 69
69 71
65 68
66 68
63 66
68 70
70 72
60 65
58 60
1. Identify the dependent and independent variable.
Solution: Here, the dependent variable is the height of the son while
the independent variable is the height of the father.
2. Compute the correlation coefficient (r) using the formula
Solution:
X Y X2 Y2 XY
71 71 5041 5041 5041
69 69 4761 4761 4761
69 71 4761 5041 4899
65 68 4225 4624 4420
66 68 4356 4624 4488
63 66 3969 4356 4158
68 70 4624 4900 4760
70 72 4900 5184 5040
60 65 3600 4225 3900
58 60 3364 3600 3480
∑X=659 ∑Y= 680 ∑X =43 601 ∑Y =46 356 ∑XY=44 947
2 2

n ∑ 𝑿𝒀- ∑ 𝑿* ∑ 𝒀
r=
√⌊n ∑ 𝑿𝟐 - ( ∑ 𝑿)𝟐 ⌋ ⌊n ∑ 𝒀𝟐 - ( ∑ 𝒀)𝟐 ⌋

10 (44947)-(659)(680)
r=
√𝟏𝟎(𝟒𝟑𝟔𝟎𝟏)−)(𝟔𝟓𝟗)𝟐 ][𝟏𝟎(𝟒𝟔𝟑𝟓𝟔)−(𝟔𝟖𝟎)𝟐 ]

r= 0.95

3. Test the significance of r using the formula

a. Ho: There is no significant relationship between the number of height
of the father and height of the son
Ha: There is a significant relationship between the two variables
b. Solving for t

𝑛−2
t= r√
1−𝑟 2

Solution: Here n=10 and r=0.95

10−2
t= 0.95√
1−(0.95)2
t=8.61

4. Compare the computed t-value to the critical t-value

Solution: Using df=n-2=10-2=8, a=0.05, two-tailed test, we find from
the table that the critical value of t is 2.306
5. Make a decision
 Solution: Since the computed t=8.61 is greater than the critical
t=2.306, we reject the null hypothesis. So, there is a significant
relationship between the two variables.

6. Summarize the results

Solution: There is a sufficient evidence to conclude that there is a
significant relationship between number of height of the father and
height of the son. Thus, we will proceed to regression analysis.
7. Compute the values of a and b in the regression equation Y’=bX+a
Using the following formulas
( ∑ 𝒀) ( ∑ 𝑿𝟐 ) - ( ∑ 𝑿) ( ∑ 𝑿𝒀)
a=
𝒏 ( ∑ 𝑿𝟐 ) - ( ∑ 𝑿 ) 𝟐
n ( ∑ 𝑿𝒀) - ( ∑ 𝑿) ( ∑ 𝒀)
b=
𝒏 ( ∑ 𝑿𝟐 ) - ( ∑ 𝑿 ) 𝟐
Solution: Using the values obtained in Step 2, we have the following:
(𝟔𝟖𝟎)(𝟒𝟑𝟔𝟎𝟏)−(𝟔𝟓𝟗)(𝟒𝟒𝟗𝟒𝟕)
a=
𝟏𝟎(𝟒𝟑𝟔𝟎𝟏)−𝟔𝟓𝟗𝟐
a=16.55
𝟏𝟎(𝟒𝟒𝟗𝟒𝟕)−(𝟔𝟓𝟗)(𝟔𝟖𝟎)
b=
𝟏𝟎(𝟒𝟑𝟔𝟎𝟏)−𝟔𝟓𝟗𝟐
b= 0.78
8. Form the regression equation.
Solution: Substitute the values of a and b in the equation
Y’=bX+a
Y’=0.78X+16.55
9. Predict the height of the son if the height of the father is 78 inches
Solution: Find the value of Y when X=78 in the regression equation.
Y’=0.78X+16.55
Y’=0.78(78)+16.55
Y’=77.39 or 77 inches
So, the predicted height of the son whose father is 78 inches is 77
inches. Remember that this is just a predicted value based on the given
data.

ACTIVITIES
ACTIVITY 1: LET’S PRACTICE
Write True or False. Analyze the following statements.
__________________1. If two variables are correlated, we can predict the value
of one variable in terms of the other variable.
__________________2. We do correlation analysis after performing regression
analysis.
__________________3. In the regression line Y’=bX + a, the slope is
represented by variable a.
__________________4. The first step in testing the significance of r is to state
the null and alternative hypothesis.
__________________5. If r is significant, proceed to regression analysis. If r is
not significant, regression analysis cannot be done.

ACTIVITY 2: KEEP PRACTICING

Multiple Choice: Choose the letter of the best answer.
A student conducted a regression analysis between the Statistics and
Probability grades of his classmates and the number of times they were
absent in the subject. He found that the regression line that will predict the
grade (y) if the number of absences (x) is known y’= 98-2.51x.
1. What is the predicted grade of a student who has no absences?
a. 92 b. 95 c. 98 d. 93
2. Which of the following shows the graph of the line predictor?

a. . c.

b. d.
 3. Which shows the equation of the line given its graph?

a. Y’=2X + 3 b. Y’=2X + 2 c. Y’=2X + 1 d. Y’=2X + 5

4. If the value of a=5 and b=3, write the equation of the regression line.
a. Y’=3X + 5 b. Y’=5X + 3 c. Y’= X+5 d. Y’=X +3
1
5. Find the slope of the regression line Y’= X + 6.
2
1
a. 6 b. c. 2 d. 1
2

WRAP–UP
When can we apply Regression Analysis?
• If the test of significance of r yields a significant results, then
regression analysis can be performed. If the test of significance of r
yields no significant results, then regression analysis should not be
performed
• In regression analysis, the goal is to determine the regression line
that is the same as the trend line. The regression line is used in
prediction, hence, it is sometimes called line predictor
• The regression line is the same as the point-slope form equation of a
line in algebra. The regression line is:
Y’=bX+a, where b is the slope of the line and a is the y-intercept

(Σ𝑌)(Σ𝑋 2 )−(∑𝑋)(∑𝑋𝑌)
a=
𝑛 (∑𝑋 2 )−(∑𝑋)2

𝑛(ΣX𝑌)−(∑𝑋)(∑𝑌)
b=
𝑛 (∑𝑋 2 )−(∑𝑋)2
• The sign of a regression coefficient b tells you whether there is a
positive or negative correlation between each independent variable
and the dependent variable. A positive coefficient b indicates that
 as the value of the independent variable increases, the mean of the
dependent variable also tends to increase.

VALUING

We can use the regression line to predict the values of Y given values
of X. Linear regression consists of finding the best-fitting straight line through the
points. A regression coefficient is the same thing as the slope of the line of a
regression equation. A line could be increasing or decreasing.

Y’=bX+a, where b is the slope of the line and a is the y-

intercept
By regression analysis, we will learn how to predict the value of one variable
in terms of the other variable. Example, if you know the monthly net profit of a
business firm for a period of time, can you predict its net profit for the coming
months?

In real life, (except in science where we can control variables), perfect

correlation (r=1) does not happen. We can say that life is not perfect because
human is not perfect either. Likewise, in this world, it is impossible to lead a
perfect life because positive and negative intentions, feelings and influences always
exist. In this time of pandemic crisis, let us try to get away with negative feelings
and intentions to lighten the burdens brought by COVID19.

Cite your own experience where you think regression analysis is observed in
real life situation.
 POST TEST

Survey tests on leadership skills and on self-concept were administered for

to student-leaders. Both tests use a 10-point Likert scale with 10 indicating the
highest scores for each test. Scores for the student-leaders on the tests follow:

Student A B C D E F G H I J
Code
Self- 10 9 6 4 5 8 8 7 6 7
concept
Leadership 9 9 7 3 6 8 9 7 7 8
skill

Multiple Choice: Choose the letter of the best answer.

1. Compute the coefficient of correlation r.
a. r=0.70 b. r=0.80 c. r=0.90 d. r=1

2. Interpret the results in terms of strength and direction of correlation.

a. Perfect b. very high c. moderately high d. very low

3. Solve for the value of a and b using the formulas.

a. a=1, b=0.9 c. a=2, b=0.8
b. a= 0.5, b=0.7 d. a=2.5, b=0.6

4. Find the regression line that will predict the leadership skill if the self-
concept score is known.
a. Y’= 0.70X + 0.3 c. Y’=0.90X + 1
b. Y’= 0.80X + 0.2 d. Y’=0.85X + 0.5

5. Predict the leadership skill of a student leader whose self-concept skill is 1.4
a. Y’=1.56 c. Y’=2.10
b. Y’= 1.89 d. Y’=2.26
 KEY TO CORRECTION

REFERENCES
Faculty.cas.usf.du>regbas
Math.hws.edu>javamath>ryan
https://statisticsbyjim.com>regression

Belecina, Rene R, Baccay, Elisa S., Mateo, Efren B (2016)

Statistics and Probability (Students’ Textbook, pages 304-321` and Teacher’s
Resource Material, pages 86-95)
Philippine Copyright 2016 by Rex Book Store, Inc.